Comments by "Fredinno" (@innosam123) on "5 Countries that will Collapse by 2040." video.

Latin America is doing better now than ever before. Mexico in particular is on the verge of breaking the Middle Income barrier, and has an incredibly diversified economy and businesses and show no sign of slowing down due to NAFTA2. The US also has free trade deals with every Latin American nation except Bolivia, the Guyanas and Brazil, and the Americas are pretty reliably in the American SOI (not that they have a choice.) Also, doing so would end the threat of mass immigration and drug cartels, so there are quite a few reasons for Latin America’s industrialization to be encouraged. Argentina has everything to succeed if it can stop figuring out ways to screw itself over. It has good geography, a highly educated population, good demographics, and even tons of domestic businesses that were doing OK before COVID. COVID has been handled so poorly by the current Peronist government, we’re likely to see some more economic reforms come through. Hopefully. Columbia and Chile are also doing pretty well and will likely become outlets for American investment once Mexico starts to reach higher-income status. Brazil is probably going to have difficulty though.
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@compatriot852 Mexico could never become a superpower as long as the US exists. Brazil has massive problems with internal unity due to its geography and varied cultural landscape, that are only rivalled on the Americas by Canada. That makes it difficult to project power even if Brazil becomes wealthy.
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I think the Cape would end up as an African Israel. Armed to the teeth, unusually industrialized, constantly attacked by its neighbours, while also having stable demographics. And also semi-Aparthetic.
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@jackyex Remember, I did add the caviat that Argentina keeps somehow finding ways to fuck itself over even when everything is in its favour. You can bring a horse to water but not have it drink. Even Spain, the nation responsible for giving birth to Latin America, became developed. Surely with access to the largest markets, resources, as well as plentiful and quality human capital and favourable geopolitical situations, many can ultimately succeed. And I think it’s unfair to put down the reforms made by Macri. He made some pretty decent strides in liberalization before getting hit with bad economic luck.
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@YamiFlyZX No, I said the Argentina has the potential to do well, and that everything points to it if it can maintain some level of economic stability and stop spending every penny they get. Hopefully COVID is killing Peronism, or at least severely weakening it.
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I’m not so sure that Africa is going to have a collapse in food production. The map you show ignores that the Sahara (and Arabia) is going to get wetter as higher temperatures return the continent back to conditions more similar to those in the African Humid period. South Africa and North Africa are the only parts expected to get drier to any major degree, so you’d likely actually see mass human migrations resulting in more ethnic conflict as new land is opened up and old land becomes desert. Ethiopia benefits a ton from this. Somalia is going to get wetter and is easy pickings for an industrialized Ethiopian state.
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@jackyex https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_South_is_My_Country There have been at least one armed revolt that had to be suppressed from Southern Separatists.
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@jackyex Argentina is very Social Democratic, so Macri had to go slowly, and he only really had half a term to implement any reforms in practice anyways before a currency crisis killed any chance of success. The only way anyone could go fast in Argentina is for a complete societal and cultural reshuffling to occur. Which isn’t likely. Spain is so fragile because the euro was a fundamentally flawed idea that put Spain in insane amounts of debt by artificially lowering interest rates.
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@YamiFlyZX Considering the growth of companies like Macre Libre? They’ve been holding out pretty well, considering the circumstances. Argentina has extremely high literacy and extremely high rates of enrolment in both higher and lower education. Is it Asia? No.
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@jackyex Uh, no. The Wikipedia article says the YES vote for independence is consistently over 90%.
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@Joleyn-Joy Canada was also dominated by American Multinationals and is still incredibly dependant on the US. That’s what happens when you’re right next to the US.
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