Comments by "Fredinno" (@innosam123) on "The Un-Recession" video.

Well, if you get off Twitter, that might help. ;)
5
@willchristie2650 Imperial in the Roman sense?
2
@ryankuypers1819 Note that only Corporate and Govnt. debt are elevated above 2008 levels to GDP. Household Debt, for example, has remained below 80% of GDP since 08, including during COVID. Corporate Debt to GDP spiked during COVID, and is not back to 2008 (and Y2K bust) levels. Also, last quarter GDP fell by 0.9%, lower than the 1.6% drop in Q1. This is comparable to the trajectory of the US economy during the dot-com bust, which was a ‘soft landing recession, with the US economy only shrinking around 1% quarterly. GDP may drop below the 1% quarterly level, but only if the Fed raises rates faster than the market has in its forecast. Aka. A recession beyond that caused by inflation and rate increases may occur, but will likely not be disastrous.
2
@ryankuypers1819 Note that corporations were also restoring tremendously, especially during and after the pandemic. Before the interest rate hikes, US Services PMI was around 55 and Manufacturing PMI around 60 (!)- the highest it had been since before 2014. Retirements and the Pandemic causing/accelerating a lower Labour Force Participation rate were probably stalling PMI out. Also, Inflation hit a maximum of 15% in the early 80s, and had been elevated above 5% since around 1970. The inflation rate has already stalled out at around 8.5% despite the war in Ukraine. Also, the inflation means the real interest rate is still negative. They still need to raise rates by another 6% before they reach the real interest rates of pre-COVID. The FED has lots of room to maneuver still- honestly more than they did in 2008. The US government could also amend the Federal Reserve Act to allow for direct financing of the government from the Fed, bypassing the markets. They haven’t done it, but it’s a worst-case scenario option.
2