Comments by "TJ Marx" (@tjmarx) on "Cost of Living Debate: how bad is it going to get?" video.

@hastekulvaati9681 I'm sorry but that's utter nonsense. Stop reading headlines and actually understand the numbers behind those headlines. Russia saw 4.3% growth y/y in Q3 2021 above it's existing growth, in same period 2022 Russia saw a reduction in growth by 4% which leaves their economy still with 2.9% growth, a number the UK hasn't seen in 25 years. Economic modelling suggests this dip in growth for Russia is temporary, resolving back to 4% by Q2 2023. The UK is experiencing negative growth currently, with a projected rebound to just 1.75% growth by 2025. That's self imposed madness. Who do you imagine you're helping doing that? You have to help yourself before you can help anyone else. This isn't about the pros or cons of the war in Ukraine, they have their own points. This is about the solvency of the UK, and it's ability to maintain it's position in the world. Let's put reality aside for a moment and imagine the dictator Zelenskyy's scare campaign propaganda about Russia coming to invade all of Europe were true. The UK is already insolvent, it's bankrupt and paying it's bills with high interest loans. How do you imagine the UK manages to engage in any meaningful defence of itself from such an already weak financial position? It couldn't, there's no money to. When they talk about this being the worst economic position since the end of WW2 what they mean is the UK during peace time is already at a point right now similar to the bankruptcy it suffered by the end of WW2. It simply couldn't afford any kind of defence let alone offence right now. You don't bite the hand that feeds you, particularly when you don't have an alternative already in place. The sanctions need to be dropped if for not other reason, for mere self preservation.
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@Nick-kb6jd What on earth do you imagine the brexit referendum has to do with any of this? The EU is in just as much (and in some cases worse) trouble than the UK is. Brexit is a separate issue
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Partisan politics is almost never helpful and similarly almost always counterproductive. I know you probably don't want to hear this, but the genuine reality is inflation globally is high right now. There are international factors at play here some of which a union lile the UK has absolutely no control over. Yankville's fiscal policy for example, international shipping backlogs or global supply shortages caused by the Chinese economy remaining shut in pursuit of CoVID zero. Those things contribute in no small way to global inflation and cost of living increase. It's not all out of control however, there are certainly UK domestic factors that have contributed. Blame for example is constantly thrust upon Russia, but Russia isn't actually doing anything to increase inflation or energy prices (gasprom has in fact lowered prices for many of it's customers). The reality that neither side of politics want to repeat, is that it's the bipartisan backed UK foreign policy of SANCTIONS against Russia and the onflow of them, that are blowing back onto the economy Whilst Russia grows it's economy, the UK and it's allies grow poorer as a result of those sanctions. But other domestic policies have contributed to things getting worse than they otherwise would have. Many of these things are structural to the UK economy brought in over successive bipartisan governments. Some, like this insistence in more government debt through borrowing makes inflation worse even if you follow the nonsense plan the Labour front bencher was reciting. So too does lifting wages and benefits make things worse. The whole point of getting inflation under control is to pull cash out of the economy and increase foreign investments. Inflation afterall is the devaluation of currency. When you increase wages quickly to try to counter that rapid devaluation you make the problem far worse. First businesses struggling in and of themselves have to raise prices again to pay those higher wages, but also it causes even faster devaluation of currency so in actual fact that pay rise made you worse off in cost of living than before you got it. Maybe you get £10 more a week, but your expenses went up £24.50 a week across the economy to pay for it. Even more insidious is that raising wages to combat inflation turns inflation structural. That is instead of dropping off next year as currently predicted, if all these unions currently striking for pay rises get their way then even higher inflation than today will be with the UK right into the middle of the 2030s. So next time you see a union boss running his mouth about how the workers need to strike for better pay, smack him in the mouth and tell him to shut up because they're making the problem significantly worse. High inflationary events always mean some people will go under. Trying to raise wages to combat it just causes more people to go under than otherwise would have. The UK is currently financially insolvent. If the UK was a person it would be declaring bankruptcy due to overwhelming debt. As a nation it's like the impoverished people channel 4 keep plastering over the screen. Services need cutting and restructuring, there's no more money to give. Services like the NHS are trying to do far more than can reasonably be funded. The horrible truth is neither party have a clue what they're doing nor have a decent plan to get out of this mess. There's nothing united, in the United kingdom and that's the real problem.
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No @Nick-kb6jd if you think it does then you haven't been paying attention for the last 45 years. But I'm not going to go back and forward with you on this, so I'll ask you a simple question. Being as specific and technical as you can, by what mechanism(s) do you imagine brexit is of any relevance whatsoever to the current GLOBAL inflationary event, and the position the UK is in. I'm not looking for anecdotes or opinions, I'm looking for objective economic or policy mechanisms that link the two things together at the exclusion of the previous 45 years. If you can not manage to do so, then you need to accept you don't understand what you're talking about and withdrawal your comment. Similarly if all you can reply with is ideology, anecdote or subjective opinion don't bother.
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@alanhat5252 What's that you actually don't have a challenge but you want to be contrarian anyway. That's cool, please excuse me while I pay your empty opinion no mind. What I've stated is fact.
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@socillizt4life Actually Neil isn't entirely wrong. The Biden administration is both directly and indirectly a source of much of the global inflation being experienced right now including in the UK. Let's start with the petro-dollar. The Biden administration pushed through multiple trillion dollar bills all paid for through borrowed money. Any other country doing that would have collapsed the value of their currency and their economy along with it. Think the run on the pound under Truss x1,000,000. For yankville however they currently have the benefit of being the main global reserve currency in the trading of energy commodities. The market can't allow that currency to fall in that way otherwise all the energy export nations end up with huge GDP shortfalls due to product that's worth dramatically less. So instead the devaluation of the USD is passed across international markets into other currencies, like the pound. That creates higher energy prices and higher general inflation You then have Biden whom within 7 WEEKS of taking office had pushed Russia into war with Ukraine. They're strongly suspected of being responsible for destroying Nordstrom 1 & 2. These things combined have forced Europe into the global energy market removing the reliance on cheap Russian oil and gas which instead are being purchased primarily from yankville at 1200% higher cost. Yankville have also been delaying international shipping across all of their major ports since mid 2021 which inflates the shipping backlog and thus exacerbates supply chain issues. This isn't all on Biden, but Neil isn't wrong to point out that Biden has played no small part in global financial instabilities, including those affecting the UK. Edit: This is what globalisation means in practical terms. The domestic policies of nation states far away from your own and over whom you hold no control can utterly change the day to day conditions of your life, or the economic viability of your own nation. In some ways it renders democracy inadequate.
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@Nick-kb6jd So to a question I was very clear on wanting specific, economic linkage and not anecdote or empty opinion you gave nothing but anecdote and empty opinion. And ironically in giving that opinion you've ignored genuine factors that contribute to high inflation. You've made apple and orange comparison of nation states, ignoring why they're apple and orange comparisons then made a ridiculous claim about levels of immigration or immigration as a factor in lower inflation. You've demonstrated you understand economics even less than you understand English. Go away Nick, you have no idea what you're talking about and nothing insightful to contribute. Btw, 7% inflation is still ridiculously high so I wouldn't be patting Canada on the back over that.
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@Nick-kb6jd lol. crikey you must not even understand what ad hom means, because it's yet another word you're using wrong. There was absolutely none present. Both inflation can be a global problem; and trying to directly compare outcomes from two very different nations, with two very different markets and situations can also been a non-sequitur, particularly when you fail to account for those differences in your comparison. There's no contradiction, they're not mutually exclusive. That you don't realise that and want to pretend otherwise is yet another demonstration you don't understand this topic. It's not that I don't think you understand economics, it's that you have repeatedly and endlessly demonstrated you don't. Yet again you draw a non-sequitur from a difference in inflation rates. Canada was never part of the EU, immigration into the UK hasn't ceased, nor is immigration at all relevant to inflation. You've looked at a country and compared it to a union, failed to see the plethora of differences between them and chosen an arbitrary, unrelated thing as a cause in inflationary outcomes. Frankly Nick this conversation is a joke. I think I'm done replying to you, you have nothing insightful to say.
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@awpetersen5909 Tell me about the economic mechanisms by which you believe brexit has any effect whatsoever on inflation. Be as detailed and technical as possible. If you're unable to do so, your claim is dead in the water
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@bereal6590 That's not even close to true
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@bereal6590 Do better at trolling mate.
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@bereal6590 No. The people, like you, whom are trolls, are trolls. People like you who talk objectively false bs to get a response. People like you who hide behind empty, purposefully antagonistic pseudonyms... I feel sorry for you.
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