Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "Sandboxx"
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You, and others, refer to the CSIS war game study of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and point out the dire consequences for our military.
I do not accept that interpretation. The CSIS study seems incompetent to me for two major reasons ----
1). Taiwan is depected as punching bag that does not hit back. Taiwan is NOT a pinata , that China can hit freely.
Taiwan has thousands of anti-ship missiles -- HF-2, HF-2e, and HF-3.
Taiwan makes the most advanced chips, and there is NO REASON to believe that Taiwan has not used them to create
world class sensors, avionics, and ECCM systems to make their missiles robust and hard to kill.
If I am correct, the Taiwan will likely sink China's invasion fleet BEFORE the US has time to respond.
2) Now this point is the one that makes me see the CSIS study as incompetent ---
CSIS claims that the US would lose FOUR (4) nuclear subs.
Huh?? How is that???
As far as I know, China cannot locate ANY of our subs, let alone target and kill them.
So unless our Navy plans on having our subs surface in Shanghai harbor, that stated outcome is ridiculous.
Alex, it does give me pause that YOU credit the CSIS study as being valid. You MUST know something I don't.
What do you know??
Does Taiwan not have anti-ship missiles?
Can China find, track, target, and kill our nuclear subs??
You must think these are facts to accept the CSIS study.
What is the truth??
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These are great. BUT - they are easily seen by radar, therefore easily targeted and destroyed.
Enemies, now, are not prepared for them, so they will be great for a few years.
In time, though, all naval craft will have anti-drone systems.
IMO, they will need to make these semi-submersible.
Travelling just under the surface, with only a thin antenna above the surface.
Instead of complicated submarine mechanics,
I think a simple bladder can act as the submerging device.
It only needs to go down 4 to 8 feet, I think.
It could travel long distances fast above the water, and then go below the surface
when needed.
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OMG, not another video quoting the incompetent CSIS "war gaming" analysis.
The assertions made in it are ridiculous.
For example, it states that the US will lose 4 nuclear subs.
Oh yeah? HOW?? China has no ability to find, let alone target and destroy them.
It states the China will sink two aircraft carriers?
Oh yeah? How? Our carriers will NOT be put so close to China to make them easy targets.
Besides -- why should US or Japan get involved at all???
I have yet to see or read anything that gives a reasonable way for China to avoid having its fleet sunk and neutralized by
the anti-ship missiles of Taiwan -- HF-2, HF-2e, and HF-3, along with Harpoon missiles.
Look at the difficulty the Allies had invading the Normandy beaches.
The Allies had air dominance, and thousands of ships, with trained & experienced crews.
China has none of that.
Plus, modern anti-ship missiles make such an assault doomed.
AND - Taiwan missiles are ALL equipped with modern ECCM capability.
China won't be able to shoot down many.
The CSIS report is incompetent, and should be discarded.
American airpower will NOT likely play a significant role in defending Taiwan.
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One thing Ukraine is showing is the diminishment of the significance of air power.
Missiles are MUCH more important.
1. SAM's prevent air dominance, or even air activity.
2. Anti-ship missiles will sink China's fleet. If Russia cannot stop the sinking of their flagship, what makes anyone think that China can stop the sinking of its troop ships, destroyers, frigates, etc.??
3. Taiwan makes the MOST sophisticated chips, which have been incorporated into their HF-2, HF-2e, and HF-3 missiles.
They undoubtedly have ECCM, making them very hard to stop.
Personally, I think Taiwan can defeat a Chinese invasion all by themselves, with little help from US or Japan.
US should send at least 500 Harpoon missiles, and as many LRASM's as possible.
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