Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "RealLifeLore"
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Wrong.
The claims of the non-China countries are ALL given to them by the UN's Law of the Sea.
They are ALL claims of Exclusive Economic Zone. There is a process in the UN to resolve competing EEZ claims.
An EEZ does NOT give sovereignty of that part of the ocean to a country.
An EEZ is still international waters, and any ship can sail in it. They just cannot fish or extract anything.
China, on the other hand, claims SOVEREIGNTY. That is, China claims the SCS as if it was internal waters . China says the own it completely. Their laws apply. No ship can enter OR leave without China's permission. If China wants to, it can stop a nation, like Japan, from using it at all.
China could blockade a country, if it wants, when it wants.
Such control of the SCS would reduce some of the nations in the region to being vassal states to China.
This is what it is all about. Not fish, or oil.
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One good thing about Japan's geography is that it has been able to develop with little bother from mainland troubles.
Look at how many times China has been invaded, and even conquered. China always had problems with the pastoral nomadic cultures of central Asia.
The only time a conquest was attempted was by the Mongols (yeah, I know, twice by them). Fortunately for Japanese culture, the Mongols were defeated.
Also, resources are not really important in the modern world economy,
Switzerland, Holland, Israel all have few resources, yet are wealthy, and live well.
Oil helps a bit, but does not help a modern economy that much.
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Where did you get all this misinformation??
It is just plain WRONG.
Consider - as the Earth warms, the oceans warm, and more water VAPOR goes into the atmosphere.
THEREFORE -- there will be stronger and more devastating rainstorms.
The jet streams will hardly exist, so storm tracks will be unpredictable.
For an idea, read about the climate during the Cretaceous. The Earth was NOT a big desert back then.
It was WET due to increased water cycle.
IMO, what you are reporting is incompetent extrapolations of the current effects of global warming.
We are experiencing a desertification in the American Southwest, the Sahara, Australia, and some other places.
But, that will NOT continue, IMO, as the water vapor rises and the jet streams collapse.
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Whoa, wait a miinute -- Germany and France were the ONLY two Western European countries to invade Russia this way. The Crimean War does not count.
The wars with Poland, Sweden, and LIthuania don't really count since those countries no longer pose a threat to Russia.
The world is very different from before the 20th Century.
Putin's mistake, and seemingly, every analyst pontificating on this issue is that the world has CHANGED.
1. Wealth is not determined by land resources and agricultural production, as it was before 1800.
2. Wealth is not determined primarily by industrial production, like it was before WW2.
2.1 This is why colonial systems were dsimantled. They became unprofitable.
3. So, conquering other nations does NOT add to power or wealth. Conquering other lands is stupid. Putin's quest to add to Russia is stupid and silly. His thinking is centuries out of date.
4. Security is primarily established through treaties, and trading relationships. The EU has been VERY successful in unifying the interests of France, Germany, Italy, and UK (I know, it left). Western Europe, which had been warrring since Charlemagne, has been pacified.
Russia was offered participation, but Putin refused.
Putin's paranoia of NATO and the west is precisely that -- PARANOIA.
There is no RATIONAL basis for thinking NATO and Europe is a threat.
NATO is a DEFENSIVE alliance. It only comes into being if, and ONLY if, it is attacked.
So, don't attack it.
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If resources were important, then Russia would be the wealthiest country (it's not). Canada is wealthy, but its resources are only partly responsible. Resources were essential to a 18th and 19th century economy.
20th Century economy was more about manufacturing (adding value to resources).
The 21st Century economy will be about Finance & Information, IMO.
That is why places like Switzerland, Israel, Singapore, UK and US will be major players.
I think China's position in the world economy is now in relative decline, (Relative - it will still grow, but other countries will gain on it - India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. South Korea and Japan will keep their per capita lead on China.)
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Your point about the Mississippi is correct, but inadequate.
You should include all the navigable tributaries -- the Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and Wisconsin rivers. And then, there are other smaller navigable rivers that contribute to the wealth of the US --- Tombigbee, Hudson, Potomac, Delaware, Colorado, Columbia, and Sacramento rivers.
The United States is truly blessed.
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Authoritarian rulers seem to have a pattern of behavior.
1. They see all problems as being solvable using their military.
2. They under-estimate the power of other countries - especially democracies.
For some reason, they see democracies as weak. Historically, this has proved to be extremely STUPID.
The most successful powers in the last 400 years include, Great Britain, United States, and the Dutch Republic. No one dares invade Switzerland. Democracies have proved their power, repeatedly.
3. Authoritarian rulers tend to overplay their hand. Hitler did. Napoleon did.
Interestingly, Stalin & Mao did not against the US. They made sure the Korean War stayed limited.
That could be because the US had just proved its might in WW2. So, they did NOT under-estimate the US.
4. At least with Hitler and Putin, they don't trust their military, reducing its effectiveness.
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For years, I have been saying that China is Russia's real threat.
The democracies of NATO hunger for peace, not war.
The NATO "threat" is in Putin's mind only. No one rationally thinks NATO will put armies in Georgia or Poland to attack Russia.
However, the battle for Asia has been going on for millennia. China being attacked from the west, and Europe being attacked from the east. The Xiongnu, Mongols, Huns, Avars, Alans, Magyars, Turks, rose out of central Asia to impact, conquer, and even take over.
Russia took much of Siberia from China as it grew eastward.
NOW -- the Global Times has said that China wants Vladivostok and other lands back, that Russia took.
PLUS -- China claims to be an Arctic power. Well, that cannot happen unless China takes Siberia and gets an Arctic shore.
Putin is weakening Russia profoundly.
HOW can Russia stop China from taking Siberia, now that it has wasted its army??
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