Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.

  1. Your judgement of academia is very misplaced. Academics have silly notions of how the world works and often get things wrong. A few, like Sarah Paine, know what they are talking about, but most do not, IMO.
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  2. I find it interesting that no one talks about the truly big picture -- Russia vs China. By comparison, the Ukraine War is a side show. Over the past 2000 years -- the west was invaded from Asia many times, and China was invaded from the west many times. Mongols occupied Russia for 200 years. Later, Russia took much of China's Siberian lands from it There have been border clashes. Now for the interesting part ---- China claims to be an Arctic power. How?? it is nowhere near the Arctic. Well, it would be if it got Siberia back. Last summer, an editorial in Global Times, a mouthpiece for the CCP, claimed that Vladivostok should be reclaimed by China. Now, until Putin showed how rotten and hollow the Russian military is, no one would have thought that China would have the power to take Siberia from Russia. But, Putin, in his grand stupidity, has shown how pathetic the Russian army is, so, now the idea of China taking Siberia, or a least a portion of it, is reasonable. It is possible. IMO -- China has a much better chance of a successful invasion of Siberia -- possible. While China's chances of having a successful invasion of Taiwan are between impossible and suicidal. For me, the really big question is the Sino-Russian rivalry for Asia.
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  3. You have a point. France and Germany have no history of being loyal allies. UK went to war for Belgium in ww1 and then for poland in ww2. US and UK are reliable allies. France Getmany and the rest will follow only AFTER US and UK support article 5.
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  4. Huh? As I recall, US intelligence predicted it. We warned Zelensky it was going to happen. He didn't believe us at the time. US was monitoring Russia's troop movements, and it sure looked like an invasion. Knowing the situation on the ground give Intelligence a huge advantage of seeing what is going on. Academics are stuck within their heads with zero facts to work with. How can they get anything right??
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  5. Thanks for your thoughts. It seems to me that Ukraine has better analyses and strategies. Russia makes a lot of mistakes.
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  6. You must understand military planners -- they MUST assume the enemy is going to be well trained and well led. They must assume the worst. So, they assumed the Russian army was well trained and well led. Who could have predicted their stupidity. How stupid?? Well Russia's convoy on that long road to Kiev was incompetent in so many ways. First, the convoy was trapped on the road, so Ukraine soldiers had a turkey shoot. Second, vehicles ran out of gas so they had to be abandoned. Third, the soldiers did not even have enough food. They had to break into stores so they could eat. How could US Intelligence have predicted that?? Your assessment that that was a mistake ---- is your mistake.
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  7. John Meersheimer?? Are you kidding me? The guy is a Russian hack. IMO, he must be in the pay of Putin, since his statements are always so pro-Russian, and anti-US. He does NOT qualify as a true analyst of geopolitics.
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  8. Ukraine will NOT give up. So, the war will end when Russia decides it no longer wants to fight. The real question is what are the reasons Russia will stop the war? 1. Putin removed or assassinated. 2. Putin decides to end the war. (Won't happen, IMO) 3. Russian forces pushed out of Ukraine, including Crimea. 4. Negotiated peace -- Won't happen, IMO. No reason for Ukraine to deal, it is winning. Is there another solution? I don't see one. If you do, please comment.
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  9. As I see it, US & NATO would like this war to continue, because it is hollowing out the Russian military. The tanks, artillery, and planes being lost diminishes Russia's military each day. The Russian soldiers and populous have lost faith in its leaders and military. Continued sanctions are crippling Russia's MIC. In fact, I suspect is the desire of the US for the war not to end to quickly that they have not sent ATCAMS missiles. Also might be the reason why the US has not sent too many HIMARS systems, even though they are obsolete in the US Army.
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  10. Good analysis. Very articulate, and thought out.
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