Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "China Observer" channel.

  1. China felt that it had the world by the short hairs, and that it could now dictate terms and conditions to all nations. Like how China tried to extort Australia into submission. Or, how China threatened Lithuania with economic reprisals. As companies move their supply chains elsewhere, China's ability to threaten economic reprisals will diminish.
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  2. This sounds very similar to the hippie movement in the 60's -- Tune in, Turn on, Drop Out. Hippies called themselves dropouts, because they were dropping out of the rat race.
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  3. The Belt & Road Initiative of China is doomed to fail. 1. China's construction processes are incompetent. Construction is done by habit. Designers, managers and workers will work the same way from project to project. It is impossible for them to do one project poorly to save money, and then do the next one at high quality. The workers will do the same work. So, tofu dreg projects are to be expected. 2. Debt slavery or debt colonialism won't work. No matter what the contracts say, nations can simply not pay. Payment of contracts between countries can only be guaranteed under the threat of military force. That is how the French, English, Dutch, and others maintained and enforced their colonial rule. Colonial rule has ended. China has no ability to threaten military enforcement of its B&RI contracts. First, China has no expeditionary forces. Secondly, the western powers would oppose any Chinese effort to military enforcement of its contracts. Lastly, any country that was a colony knows exactly what they need to do to oppose any such action. China has really screwed up.
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  4. Considering the boastful, derisive, condescending attitude Chinese people had when they were on top, it is hard for me to feel too sorry for them. Whenever the US and the west had problems, China celebrated. Now, China is learning how it feels.
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  5. Guess firing government workers and having less government is not an option.
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  6. The continued investment in China, at any level, is what I find most surprising. What does it take for companies to realize that investing in China is a loser's game?
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  7. A major lesson of the Cold War is that the United States plays the long game. From 1949 to the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States did NOT waiver in any way. No matter which party controlled the presidency or Congress, the policies and actions taken were very consistent. The US made a strategic change towards China in the 70's. We opened our markets and our pocketbooks. US companies invested heavily in China. Increased business and trade benefitted US and China, as was hoped. XI Jinpeng has taken China in another direction. Adversarial and antagonistic. Now, the United States has made another strategic decision. It started with Trump and has continued under Biden. Everyone should note that Congress has fully supported the new anti-China strategy taken by Trump & Biden. This change is profound AND permanent. Xi's visit will have no effect. We have seen his quixotic behavior, and know that we cannot trust him. The decoupling of Chinese/American trade will continue.
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  8. A Chinese planner had stated that Chinese skyscrapers have a planned life of 50 years. My God, in US, at 50 years, a building is still considered new. In US, buildings will last forever if maintained.
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  9. What is happening to China is NOT normal economic cycles. NORMALLY -- deflation will lead to increased consumption, which stops the deflation. UNLESS -- the deflation is caused by the collapse of the system. That is what is happening. industries have shut down. Unemployment is massive. When people have NO MONEY -- it doesn't matter how low prices go --- they cannot buy. Prices continue to drop. Re-orders stop - production declines even further --- unemployment increases -- more people without money --- Purchases reduce further. China has not hit bottom -- YET.
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  10. The BRI strategy could have been great for China. If China's projects had quality construction, and superior project management it would have worked. Projects being done on-time and under-budget would have shown the superiority of working with China. Countries would have gotten the infrastructure they need, and China would have gotten great goodwill. China's global influence would have soared. However, China decided to use bribery, which led to bad decisions. Also, by not using local workers, the people in many nations have come to resent and oppose China. Instead of goodwill, China has gotten hate. If you notice, the western powers no longer show any concern of fear of the BRI projects.
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  11. Going by the unemployment, stacked shipping containers, and collapse of orders, the decline in shipping is a lot more than 6% or 7%. Being structural, not cyclic, it is not coming back.
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  12. The waters around Hawaii are NOT between US and China. Those waters ARE American - totally and completely
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  13. I know we will not know now, but in years to come -- how widespread is this problem? How many companies have seen orders drop precipitously? What percentage of companies are affected? In both volume and number of companies? With the exodus of companies like Foxconn, Samsung, etc. I suspect it is very widespread. More importantly, it is structural NOT cyclical. That is, the orders are not coming back. This is a permanent development.
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  14. Now I know you are wrong. China's carriers have the BEST propaganda. Much better than US propaganda.
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  15. Take time to define "migrant" worker in China. It is very different from how it is used in US. In US, a migrant worker is a foreign worker, often Mexican, that comes in annually to work, like pick crops. In China, a migrant worker is a Chinese citizen from another part of the country. So, if one moves from Hunan to Beijing to find work, that person becomes an internal migrant. They don't have access to the education, health, and other benefits if they stayed home. This structure of internal migrants in China is a major factor holding the country back, IMO.
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  16. That is how China's industry developed. Western companies would develop things, and then go to China for cheap production. So, China focused on manufacturing costs and efficiencies. And, that is OK. If China had not gone rogue, then we could have continued with that. US companies would do chip research and design, then China would produce them in quantity and cheap. Now, that link is broken. US companies will develop, but now production will be domestic or to trusted countries -- like Mexico, Philippines, Columbia (maybe), India, or Vietnam. Oops, I forgot, Taiwan, too.
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  17. US will NEVER invade China. We are not as stupid as Imperial Japan was. In WW1, Germany was defeated by a blockade, not on the battlefield. IF a war happens between China & US, then China will be blockaded. NO maritime trade in, or out. No fishing fleets allowed to function. China's mainland food production is not enough to feed itself. China's raw material production is not enough to give it the fuel it needs, or the material its industries need. That is how China will be defeated, IF a war happens,
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  18. When I hear the economic bad news out of China, and of workers losing their jobs, am I the only one that rejoices??
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  19. A well trained crew takes years to develop -- and that is when you have experienced officers. China has no experienced officers to train a crew. After it sails, it will need 10 years at least to become useful.
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  20. The next time there is an incident with China at the LOC, India should delay the passage of oil tankers through the Indian ocean. Not long, just a few days delay, to get the message to China that India can stop that trade any time it chooses.
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  21. The real estate market in China is very different than real estate markets in other countries. Real estate speculation is the source of funds for local and provincial governments. So, the collapse of that market also means bankruptcies for the local and provincial governments of China. CCP and the Central Government will not have the resources to bail them all out.
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  22. NO ! ! Chinese are not allowed to choose how to live. Are not the harmless Fulan Gong persecuted for being different??
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  23.  @icosthop9998  I think my analysis is sound. I hope I am correct, too.
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  24. China's natural customers that are rich or nearby. Rich countries like the US, UK, Japan, Canada, and Sweden. And nearby countries like Japan, Taiwan, India, Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. CCP has threatened each one of those countries with war, or at least used vaguely worded threatening rhetoric which could mean war. Every one of those countries is trying to reduce trade and economic dependence with China. China's factories are closing, and workers will suffer.
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  25. Life in China sounds idyllic.
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  26. The short life of China's engines make the daily intrusions into Taiwanese air space more of strain on China than on Taiwan. Many reports said that the daily intrusions were done to wear out Taiwan's aircraft and pilots. I think the opposite is happening. Taiwan can easily afford maintenance of its aircraft. China's efforts become training exercises for the ROC Air Force. The F110 engines in Taiwan's F-16s last 12000 before needing overhaul or replacement. China's engines last 3000, according to this report. That is a huge difference.
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  27. I thought Skynet would be defeated by Connor and a converted Skynet Terminator Robot. But, no, Skynet is going to fail financially. How mundane and unsatisfying. But, I'll take it.
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  28. No sympathy. Once the American Midwest was the world's factory. Chicago was filled with small and large manufacturing - making everything from shoes, suits, screws, and paper clips to steel, cars, and locomotives. Then, they all closed down as manufacturing moved to China. Empty factories and warehouses were everywhere. The rust belt went through that, and our workers got no help from the government or the companies. We didn't like it. But, we didn't whine like the Chinese.
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  29. If you notice, the blown out windows were not broken until they hit something. The window mounts and brackets are what failed --- NOT the windows themselves. That shows poor construction that is not allowed in the US. Here, windows in high rises have to withstand winds of 120 mph, at least.
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  30. No. China is not OK. We are witnessing the collapse of the debt bubble. It has a long way to go. I think many more Chinese titans are going to fall before it is over. When done, China will be a shadow of its stature in 2020 or earlier.
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  31.  @yanmamabear5734  The abuse is different. But, there was abuse in the 60's. We were under a draft, to be sent to the idiotic stupid self-imposed war in Vietnam. Many of us of that time had friends and relatives killed, or coming back permanently mentally scarred by PTSD. Being a Hippie back then was, too, a form of protest. The phrase "Make Love, Not War" was a mantra. Hippie's protested the inequality of our society - black vs white, rich vs poor. We wanted change. We wanted a better society, a better country. We made some progress. We have gone backwards with Trump.
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  32. American foreign policy towards China was based on the assumption that they are rational. It was assumed that as China became more intertwined with trade it would normalize. After all, if China wanted to keep getting richer it would have to get along and play nice. It would not want to lose its markets and trading buddies. Well, we were wrong. It weaponized its trade, and thought it could force trading partners to follow their commands. Russia tried this with oil and gas. Did China get this idea from them?? Didn't work for Russia, either.
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  33. For thousands of years, China had been an insular kingdom. It imported nothing, and exported only a few items - porcelains and silks mostly. China is going back to what it was 100 years ago.
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  34. Most of what Peter Zeihan says was obvious to any who was looking closely. China's real estate and debt bubbles were seen and knows 15 years ago. It is amazing that China kept those bubbles going for as long as it did. The demographic bubble was suspected. The hard data was not there to make it obvious, as it is now.
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  35. I believe that the stats given are all better than actual. The given stats would not explain all foreigners gone, and entire buildings being empty. If those statements of vacancy are true, then a price drop of 20% must be false. Rental price decline has to be much more.
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  36. The decline is just starting. It will get much worse, and will go on for years.
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  37. A crime is only a crime if the law in enforced. This corporate theft seems to be very common, if not universal, in China.
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  38. It LOOKS stealthy. That is good enough for China.
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  39. This situation cannot go on forever. Eventually, the companies will have to admit their situation and close down. Even government agencies will have to shut down if they cannot pay their workers. The question is how far will China fall? ]
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  40.  @just-dl  It is already happening. Italy is not paying. Malaysia is not paying. I am sure more will come.
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  41. I thought working for no pay was the definition of slavery.
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  42. Remember, the same attitudes, procedures, and culture also manages the PLA. I think the PLA's army and navy are about as effective as their tofu dreg projects.
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  43. The CCP finally had to choose -- to integrate with the world economy and play by its rules, (thus forcing it to liberalize) or to ensure the power of the CCP. It chose the latter. Too bad. Pity.
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  44. After the CCP, will China remain a single untied country? Or, will it split into separate countries, as has happened in its past??
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  45. My question is what regions and industries are being starved of funds and resources so that they can directed to this pet project?? And, what will be the impact on the Chinese economy?
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  46. Now, besides regulatory uncertainty, businesses have to cope with operational uncertainty. I am referring to power blackouts caused by the CCP punishing(?) Australia, and boycotting their coal, which in turn, is causing power blackouts in parts of China. Companies want their factories to hum production. No drama. No interruptions. Most thought these were one time events, and things will be normal right away. That is not happening. Now production interruptions have become normal. That is intolerable. Businesses will do everything to escape that situation. I PREDICT ---- there will be MANY more businesses leaving China, and going to ANYWHERE else. They want normalcy. India, Vietnam, Philippines, Columbia, Chile, South Africa, Ethiopia, etc. etc. ANYPLACE but China.
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  47. Hey, Japan. Why don't you come to Chicago, IL, USA and build that street?? We would love it. We have a Chinatown, an Indo-Pak street on Devon Ave. The more Japanese it is, the more we would love it. Americans love the world, other countries, other cultures. We think they are great. So, if you don't feel welcome in China, you can always come here.
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  48. If corruption cannot be controlled on a such a critical weapon as an aircraft carrier, how can China control corruption and ensure quality on more mundane things like missiles, radars, and computers?? How likely is it that China will suffer significant failures during combat??
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  49. Stores may LOOK closed. Stores may LOOK empty. But, Chinese statistics shows sales increases from last year. Know the truth. 🙂
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  50. I doubt this will end the CCP. But, then again, no one can predict when the collapse will happen. The collapse WILL happen, though.
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