Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "VisualPolitik EN"
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Personally, I am very much against the development of a neo-aristocracy.
Rich people are treated differently by the courts.
Hence, they are a privileged class, similar to the old aristocracies which actually had a separate set of laws governing them.
Therefore, I want HIGH inheritance taxes on the super wealthy.
By super wealthy, I mean those who have over $100 Million
Now, farmers, ranchers, restaurant owners, and other small business owners should be able to pass the family business to their children.
But, those with HUGE amounts of money should not be able to create a neo-aristocracy.
That is very dangerous to democracy, IMO.
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IMO, South Korea should build up its diplomatic ties.
South Korea should join the Quad.
South Korea should create common diplomatic regional policies with India, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, etc.
Ultimately, a NATO-like defensive alliance for the Indo-Pacific should be created .
China and North Korea have to know that to attack one of them, will be an attack on all of them.
By jointly facing China and North Korea this way, is the best way to avoid a war.
China and North Korea are most likely to attack if they feel they have a local advantage.
If SK is alone, then it is most at risk.
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Without knowing it, you actually pointed out WHY Russia will lose.
Russia's artillery lacks GPS accuracy. They are using their artillery in the same armies did in WW2. Russia targets cities, factories, refineries, residential neighborhoods.
Obviously, unlike Ukraine, Russia CANNOT target command centers, radars, ammo dumps, fuel depots. If they could they would.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's accurate artillery fire cripples Russian forces.
Ukraine is suffering. That happens in war.
Europe suffered in WW2, and recovered.
After this war, Europe and the US will do a lot to help Ukraine recover.
Russia? They will be on their own, and get little help.
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The Muslim countries of the Middle East will have some major failures.
Their biggest problem, IMO, is Islam itself.
If you go back to 1300, the difference between the Islamic world and Christian Europe was not that much.
Rulers in both areas looked to religious leaders to confirm their title, and say they are OK with god.
In Europe, rulers had to get their marriages blessed by the Pope.
It was a Pope's refusal to allow King Henry VIII to divorce and marry another that caused England to become Protestant.
In fact, it was the religious wars, and atrocities of the 1500's that ended religion's importance in Western Europe.
By 1700, government no longer cared what religion a person was.
In 1600, the Archbishop of Canterbury was the 2nd most powerful person in England.
BY 1700, he disappears from history. He is no longer important as a political leader.
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UK did not cause the problems of the world.
UK did not create Islam.
The Pakistan/Indian problem is caused more by the intolerance of Islam, than anything UK did.
Ditto for the Israeli/Palestinian problem.
UK can be proud of its world legacy.
Look at the ex-British colonies -- they are democratic, or are trying to be.
Look at the Spanish and French ex-colonies - great difficulty with democracy, and long standing social and class issues. South American countries have been independent over 200 years, still huge problems.
But, look at Ghana, Nigeria, Bahamas, and India - doing pretty good. [Ok, Burma and Pakistan, not doing so well. can't be perfect.]
I think UK has been a good for the world
(despite its genocide of 8 million Irish from 1840 to 1850).
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Those who think China will overtake the US, extrapolate the growth of the past 30 years, assuming it will continue uninterrupted.
That is a false assumption.
1. Urbanization helped fuel that growth. China is done urbanizing.
2. 30 years ago, China had a huge young adult work force that fueled growth.
Now, China has an aging work force, that will be an economic drag.
3. Debt has piled up and reached unsustainable levels. China can no longer use debt to fuel its growth. In fact, the debt bubble is bursting, and taking down many companies, like Evergrande.
4. Xi and the CCP have turned away from the export growth model of Deng Xio Ping, which fueled the growth. The new Maoist model will sabotage growth.
Not only will China not grow, its wealth will shrink.
I expect famine and social unrest to happen in next 5 years.
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The Islamic world never went through a Reformation. Never went through the Enlightenment.
So, the Islamic world is still stuck with Medieval thinking. In the Islamic world, government is still associated with religion.
They ALL have Islam as their official state religion.
Islam tries to control people.
It is ILLEGAL for a person to change their religion, at least to change from Islam to something else.
When you talk to Muslim's, you will often find, as I have, that many are not only not practicing,
but many are Atheists, or Christian, or something else. They just keep it secret, or at least very quiet.
This lack of openness, and inability to treat all people equally, will prevent Islamic nations from
becoming modern nation states.
As their money runs out, their Muslim citizens will become very angry.
Not having learned history or philosophy, they will be incapable of understanding their situation.
They will blame everything but their distorted, antiquated, and obsolete religion.
They will turn on their government, and on each other.
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One more point about CSIS and war simulations.....
US has a history, a long history, of fear mongering to increase defense spending.
In the 50's and 60's, we had the missile gap, the bomber gap, and the tank gap.
Billions had to be spent on new weapons IN A HURRY, because the Soviet Union
was so far ahead of us -- we were told.
Well, in actuality, there were no bomber, missile, or tank gaps.
It is probably good that we developed the B-52, the Minuteman, and the Abrams tanks.
But, we didn't need the lies.
The US government does not trust the American people to support the military unless they are scared out of their wits.
The current Taiwan and SCS situation with China is the same.
China is being built up as a giant, when in reality,
it is no such thing.
China has many problems with its military.
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The Ukraine War changed everything.
For decades, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have been threatening other countries.
All this time, those threats were regarded as mere rhetoric being used for domestic propaganda.
That is, the threats were not taken as real. Even as Russia gathered troops on Ukraine's border, everyone, including Ukraine, did not believe Russia would actually attack.
NOW -- the rhetoric of China and North Korea can no longer be dismissed.
Russia is seen as a present and real danger.
SO, everyone is arming up. European countries and Asian countries are all buying lots of new stuff.
Tanks, jets, helicopters, ships, subs, missiles, artillery, rifles, etc. and etc. are all being acquired.
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So, VisualPolitik supports the right wing agenda. When did VP become a supporter of anti-democratic autocratic parties?
The statement "most unpopular president in history" is patently wrong, and stupidly false.
Try Herbert Hoover who twiddled while the Great Depression happened.
Or, try Richard Nixon who resigned, rather than run again.
If polling had been around, I am sure many of the presidents in the 1800's were very unpopular.
John Adams was VERY unpopular. But, then, since you know nothing of American History, you would not know that.
One thing I cannot stand is insular, pompous, parochial, know-it-all Brit gits, who don't read history of the world making judgements.
You don't know what you are talking about .
You used to be good.
WTF happened to you guys?
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OMG, not another reference to the incompetent, biased, CSIS "war game'.
It is deeply flawed.
1. It states US would lose 4 submarines. WTF??? China cannot find, let alone target and kill a US sub. Unless of course an American sub surfaced in Shanghai harbor. LOL
2. Like ALL war simulations I have heard of so far, it assumes Taiwan sits there like a punching bag.
3. The difficulty (actual almost impossibility) of a successful amphibious landing is not taken into account.
4. The inclusion of the result of the loss of maritime insurance for ALL cargo ships going to the region is never taken into account. The loss of maritime insurance will create a de facto blockade of China. (How is that for irony??)
5. The several thousand Surface to Air (SAM), Air to Surface (ASM) and Air to Air (AAM) missiles that Taiwan has is also NEVER taken into account,
In reality, IF China is so STUPID as to attempt an invasion ---
1. Taiwan's missiles would sink most of the Chinese fleet before it gets halfway.
2. Taiwan's missiles have the range to sink Chinese ships while they are in port.
3. Taiwan has missiles with ranges that can reach Beijing, and the 3 Gorges Dam.
So, if the US even wants to have a role, it better tell Taiwan to pull its punches,
so there is something left for the US Navy to do when it gets there.
VisualPolitik -- you should vet your sources of information.
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There is a more profound and unstoppable change coming to the Middle East -- the end of oil demand.
1. Oil is quite ubiquitous. It is everywhere. Virtually all continental shelves have it. Most has not yet begun to be tapped.
2. But, that is not the problem. The REAL PROBLEM for the oil countries is electric cars & renewable energy. Both are growing at an ever increasing rate.
3. Peak Oil Demand is expected to happen anytime from 2023 to 2030. After it happens, global oil demand is expected to decline until it is hardly used at all. By 2050, over 90% of cars and trucks are expected to be electric powered. By 2050, most electricity will be produced by renewable energy powered plants.
4. As that happens, the significance of the Middle East will decline. No one will care who rules Arabia or the other oil states. The Saudis will lose their protection as they lose their significance.
5.Their current wealth is dazzling. But, it hides major weaknesses, especially for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is still run like a medieval kingdom. Human rights are not guaranteed, and rule of law non-existent. The courts are controlled by the government, and its application of "justice" is whimsical. Good luck to anyone caught up in it.
Will the Saudi family be able to cope with the coming changed world?? Probably not. If MBS is any indication, they are not a very bright lot.
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China's biggest problem is that they believe their own propaganda.
If a war occurs, I think it will stem from China overestimating its abilities.
That may occur on the Indian/China border, but can just as easily occur in the SCS.
Big question is how will China respond when India reacts strongly, attacking in force, killing and destroying a lot;
or, Vietnam or Japan react in force, sinking ships and downing planes.
Will China take the embarrassing defeat? Or, will China, to save its pride, then react in stronger force starting a larger war???
I think the latter course. China has not had a war on its territory since WW2, and may have forgotten the horrors of war.
So, it may blithely choose war.
Big mistake.
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Oh God, not John Mearshiemer again.
He is a prof at the University of Chicago, which has some bright people.
Too bad MearSheimer isn't one of them.
I listened to him, and found his ideas both ignorant and repulsive.
First, he accepts the idea that Russia is a special country whose security concerns
are the only ones to be valid.
Ukraine's security, Poland's security, etc mean nothing.
Secondly, he buys into the Putin myth that since Russia was invaded by the Mongols and Hitler, that it gives Russia the right to commit genocide.
I live in Chicago, and John Mearsheimer is an embarrassment.
PLEASE -- stop referring to him as an expert. He is an idiot, and an unprincipled one at that.
Just because he wrote a book means nothing.
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Regarding the defense of the world's democracies -- Ukraine is the point of the spear.
EVERY democratic nation has a responsibility, a SACRED duty, to support Ukraine ---
NOW, in its time of need.
They are doing the fighting -- the dying -- we owe it to ourselves to support them.
Yes, I mean we owe it to ourselves to support Ukraine ---
for if we don't, if we let Ukraine fall, if we let the light of democracy to be dimmed,
and maybe fail, then we will have shamed ourselves in our own eyes, and in the eyes of history.
Do you want to live with that blame, that shame??
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Oil never was a decreasing resource. What is more, the oil companies knew that. Well, at least by 1980 they knew that.
Ask yourself, how can the oil companies have estimates of how much oil is in the continental shelf in the South China Sea??
Or, have estimated reserves in various continental shelves around the world? - Argentina, Brazil, Israel (yep, there too), North Sea, Arctic Ice Shelves, etc.
How do they know when they have not drilled any wells, or only a few??
Simple, it is in knowing how oil deposits were formed.
AND, the formation is a very scary story.... Here it is..
1. In the Mesozoic, 250 mya to 60 mya, there were many events called ....
Global Anoxic Events.
Global Anoxic Event is when the Earth is so warm, that the ocean currents shut down, including the currents that bring oxygen to the depths. The deep ocean loses its oxygen -- hence the term Global Anoxic Event.
2. When sea creatures die, they fall to the bottom of the ocean, and rot under anoxic conditions. Over time this gives us oil deposits.
3. They are mostly on continental shelves since the shallow ocean next to land is the most productive part of the ocean.
Therefore, the oil deposits are in continental shelves, or areas that WERE under water at the time - like Texas, and Persian Gulf area.
4. GAE's occurred when Earth was very warm, and atmospheric CO2 was very high -- like 600+ppm. I don't think scientists have a firm number for that level, but it was high.
5. GAE's are associated with mass extinctions.
6. Current CO2 is 419 ppm (see https://www.co2.earth/)
CO2 is rising 2 to 3 ppm per year, and will likely accelerate in the future.
Taking the lower number of 2 ppm/year, in 80 years, 2100, CO2 will rise 160 ppm to 579 ppm in the atmosphere.
At that level, polar ice caps have never existed on Earth. SO, we could expect to lose the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps completely.
Though that loss would take several centuries. Maybe a millennia, but I doubt it would take that long, especially since, CO2 continue to rise further.
Here is the kicker, Mother Nature took the excess CO2 out of the air and sequestered deep in the land under the ocean. Very secure. Very safe. So, she thought.
NOW, man has accessed those stores of Carbon, burning it, and releasing it back into the air.
Reversing Mother Nature's efforts to build a planet nice for use.
She gave us this wonderful planet, as a gift to us.
We are now destroying it.
A Global Anoxic Event is likely in our future.
Remember, they are linked to extinction events.
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I stated "China has many problems with its military." Let me explain.
Although creating great weapons - on paper - China has no experience in using them.
China is trying to adopt US doctrine, but it has no experience.
So, it tries to hire western ex-military guys, to teach them.
(which is illegal, and will get guys that do that in big trouble).
There is only ONE country in the world today with deep experience in amphibious warfare -- the US.
Even UK, Germany, etc. experience and knowledge pale in comparison.
The US is coaching Taiwan on how to defend against and disrupt such an invasion.
I put my money on Taiwan.
Third, Taiwan makes the most advanced chips in the world. Therefore, their missile avionics, ECM, and ECCM is likely very advanced. That would mean their missiles are hard to intercept, and will hit and destroy their targets. It also means, their anti-missile missiles would be highly effective against Chinese missiles, blunting their missile barrages.
Fourthly, as Ukraine shows, people will fight like hell when they are defending home and family.
The Taiwanese will be very hard to conquer. Even if, by some miracle, China gets its forces on Taiwan -- it is mountainous, and easily defended. Walking into Taipei will not conquer Taiwan.
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Putin is destroying Russia's ability to hold onto Siberia.
In the long run, Russia's biggest threat comes from China.
Russia took Siberia from China. Lake Baikal, and much of Siberia belonged to China.
Vladivostok is build on land taken from China.
NOW -- consider this -- China claims to be an Arctic power.
How can it say that if it does not have Arctic land??
Could it be that China intends on getting Arctic land??
From where??
Taking Siberia, obviously.
Until now, Russia was too strong for that to even be a possibility.
Russia has shown that it has an incompetent army, with poorly maintained equipment, with crews with no training. Russia has shown that its military doctrine is crap.
Russia has shown that its military organization, structure, and leadership is a farce.
Will China remain intimidated???
I doubt that.
What would the world do if China attacked, conquered, and made Siberia part of China???
Who would oppose?? Who would stop China??
What could NATO or US do?
They may not like it, but what could anyone do??
It is only a matter of time.
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Russia may be militaristic, but it is not a martial culture or society.
Militarism is political. Martial is cultural.
For instance, take Rome, under the Republic.
They had the Campus Mars in the center of Rome,
where the Romans practiced and trained for war ALL THE F**KING TIME.
That is why they could lose battle after battle to Hannibal, and still field armies.
Frederick the Great established a martial culture in his army.
They studied arms, tactics, and strategies. They changed any when it was called for.
The United States has a martial military. Warfare us studied and analyzed all the time.
It's theory is taught at The Naval War College and West Point.
The US has changed its doctrine over last few decades, based upon the outcomes of wargames,
and analytical study.
Russia on the other hand, talks a good game, but the results show they don't study war, and they don't understand how to strategize and perform.
Basically, the Russian military is incompetent, and they don't know what they are doing.
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You really don't understand what is going on, do you???
The trade war was overtaken by geopolitical issues. It is no longer about trade.
What is wrong with China will not be fixed, cannot be fixed, by tariff agreements.
1. China's claims of sovereignty over the SCS, is really an attempt to gain economic control of the entire region.
The countries of the region rely on maritime trade through the SCS, and if China can exercise sovereignty, then all the countries will become vassal states.
That is what is really at stake. Don't you see that?? It is obvious.
2. China is bullying nations all over the world. Hostage diplomacy with Canada, and Australia.
3 Bully Australia, and India. Even threatening war with America.
4. Threatening war with Taiwan.
5. Threatening war with Japan.
6. Invading the EEZ zones of nations around the world, stealing their fish -- Argentine, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Indonesia, Japan, etc. Nations are upset. Violence has happened. Boats sunk. Sailors killed. n
All these issues go way beyond the petty concerns of a trade war.
The Quad has grown, and will likely expand into a defensive alliance against China.
You don't mention these things. Are you sleeping??
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Wahhabism holds that other Suni are heretics.
So, there are really THREE branches of Islam,
Shia, Suni, and Wahhabi.
Wahhabi is the branch that rules Saudi Arabia.
Wahhabism is the religion of Al Qaida, ISIS,
Taliban, Al Shabbab, and most Islamic terror groups
They rose from the Islamic madras schools financed by Saudi money throughout the Muslim world.
All the terror groups from Pakistan to Nigeria, from Ethiopia to Syria, got their start
in the Saudi financed madrasas.
Is Saudi Arabia really our friend???
IMO, no.
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@tamjidislam5558 Technically, you are right. Wahabbism does claim to be Suni.
However, it is so strict, that it condemns all Suni who do not accept Wahabbism as heretics, and says they should be killed.
Wahabbism is less tolerant of Non-Wahabbi Suni, than it is of all others.
Because of this obvious division between Wahabbi Suni, and non-Wahabbi Suni,
I identify Islam as being divided into
Wahabbi, Suni, and Shia.
For instance, Wahabbis desecrated the tombs in the Garden of The Prophets. Regular Sunis opposed this, stating it was blasphemy. But, the Wahabbists persisted, removing any imagery on the tombs, though they were put there by the earliest Muslims, who knew Muhammed personally.
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