Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "Good Times Bad Times" channel.

  1. I have read the projections for Nigeria - about 750,000,000 by 2100. I doubt that will ever happen. IMO, Nigeria will hit a resource ceiling, which will prevent that many people. Nigeria won't be rich enough to buy the food necessary. And it won't be able to feed itself. I remember in the 1970's, Iran was forecast to have huge population, well over 100M, but that is not happening. Iran became middle class, and now has a problem of future decline. I think this will happen to Nigeria. It can be a low cost manufacturer for companies leaving China. Being on the Atlantic, it has shorter routes to Europe, NA, and SA. I bet Nigeria never even reaches 400,000,000.
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  2.  @legendarydn3804  Problem is, Putin always escalates. Like Hitler, there is never a point where he is satisfied. He will always push it to the next level. Even to the strategic level. So, the west will have to respond at some point.
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  3. For a US of Europe, I did not hear the creation of a popularly elected head of state, or of an elected legislative body. The EU is now governed by bureaucrats appointed by each nation. EU governance reflects the will of ruling parties, but no of the people of Europe. That is a confederation, NOT a federation. The US tried that under our "Articles of Confederation" from 1781, to 1788. It failed, and we created a new Constitution to establish our current form of government. Europe need not repeat our mistake.
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  4. With each generation, the people of Taiwan will feel less Chinese, and more Taiwanese. The biggest obstacle, though, is that they are total opposite in government structure - democracy vs authoritarian. The different governments create incompatible cultures. Look at the difficulty China has had in absorbing Hong Kong. Taiwan would be way more difficult. I don't see how Taiwan can be taken by China. Taiwan will fight and resist. The more China threatens, the more the Taiwanese will fight and resist.
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  5. Turkey is weaker, not stronger, after it decided to be an a$$hole. Before, it had friends, allies, and no disputes with its neighbors. Now, it has conflict with Greece, that may become a war. Turkey has turned on America, so US is less likely to help Turkey out in any way. Sure, its economy has grown some. But, not enough where it could dictate to others.
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  6.  @lastword8783  It is not a caricature. It is a comparison or simile. Is my statement, "Putin always escalates," wrong? Hasn't he continued escalating after saying he won't?? Like when he said troops were just training near Ukraine, then he invaded. How can nations trust him? They can't. So, Putin must be defeated.
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  7. That is a well reasoned, rational, logical analysis. Problem is, people make illogical irrational emotional decisions. Take WW1. Rationally - no country wanted war. No country would benefit from war. Yet, Austria pushed and pushed. Germany gave Austria permission to take that next step -- not fully knowing what it would be. Voila ! ! We had war.
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  8. In case of a US/China war, all India would need to do is block all Chinese trade through the Strait of Malacca. The US, I hope, would quickly sink China's fleet, and destroy their container ports. Many of China's major cities are on the coast, or not far inland. This makes them very vulnerable. Such a war would have likely been caused by China's attempt to take Taiwan. So, America would have bases on Taiwan to conduct the war from.
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  9. What a crock. A hesitation of US support due to political infighting does not mean that aid will not continue. Ukraine has not advanced in the south, but neither has Russia. Ukraine did take back Kherson, don't forget. Don't forget the strategic changes of Finland joining NATO, Poland's increased military, and the NATO commitment to the Baltic states. Russia invades them means war with all of NATO. Lastly, Russia will not have the resources needed to rebuild its army. Europe is no longer a market for its oil and gas. The sanctions will continue. No political will is needed to maintain them. If Russia wants the sanctions to end, it must do something to appease the US and the west. Which it won't as long as Putin breathes. This analysis must have been written by Putin. It is absurdly pro-Putin.
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  10. Australia should become our 51st state. Australia would be our 3rd largest state in population. We are so alike. Founded by Brits, populated by Irish. Both abused native population. Racial equality problems. We both like Paul Hogan movies. So, why not?
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  11.  @ikengaspirit3063  Not at all. But, just because it stays rural, does not mean that a huge population can be achieved. If Nigeria does NOT reduce its birth rate, like Iran, or Taiwan, then expect Nigeria's population to be limited by widespread famine. Tens of millions will die, IMO, and the projected 750,000,000 will never be reached.
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  12. Primakov blindly assumed that India would support Russia in opposing the west. That is very wrong, IMO. India is very independent, and has had differences with the west. But, those differences did not include opposition to democracy, or to the UN. I see India as being opposed to the US on some issues, but not opposed the US, nor its role as a leading power. In fact, I don't see India being opposed to any world power. India is opposed to China, because China attacks it, and works against India on several fronts. But, India does not oppose China philosophically. India is OK with whatever China does internally. So, how is India to be part of a triple alliance with Russia and China?? And, how is Russia going to be in leading partner of this group?? That makes no sense.
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  13.  @wiiistful7499  You support the destruction of Hong Kong. No need for us to talk.
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  14. When a country has a huge population it can treat its armies as cannon fodder. Historically Russia has been sloppy with its armies, allowing huge numbers of casualties. China also did the same. Look at the human waves slaughtered by American forces in the Korean War, or the human waves slaughtered by the Germans in WW2. Since Russia no longer has such an advantage in population, Russia should have a military doctrine that seeks victories efficiently, with little loss of their own men. Going by the Ukraine War, it does not look like Russia has changed its doctrine from WW2. The Russian army looks and behaves like the Soviet armies of WW2. I would love to see an analysis on why Russian military doctrine has not changed. There has to be a reason.
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  15. A maritime blockade on Russia would be on ALL its coasts -- Black Sea, Baltic, Arctic, and Pacific.
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  16. China's challenge to American naval hegemony is NOT real. The naval bases the US has around the world + the multitude of alliances the US has around the world is the real source of American hegemony. The technical superiority of our fleet is nice, but it is the bases and treaties that is the real source of our power.
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  17. Germany does not mind Ukrainians dying to protect German interests.
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  18. It is not "if", but WHEN the Kerch bridge is destroyed.
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  19.  @cryaboutit6670  You are very specific with your facts. Very clear about their meaning. IMO, you pass the smell test. I think you know what you are talking about -- even if you haven't been there.
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  20. I think China will have difficulty in maintaining the fleet it is building. All the ships require maintenance. And, all the crews require constant training. China's collapsing economy may give enough money for those actions.
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  21.  @EasternVikingTradeCompanyJSC  India just bought French Rafales. They bought American P-8 Neptunes, and AH-64 attack helicopters, and I think they have some C-130 Hercules planes. India has expanded from just buying Russian arms. I think how India got hosed on the carrier deal, taught them something.
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  22. Ukraine attacking in three theaters will also put pressure on Russia to defend in three different theaters. I think an attack in the Zaporizhian area will strain Russia more than Ukraine.
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  23.  @josephstalin839  What does my assessment of Putin have to do with your comment? You make no sense at all.
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  24.  @Tenebraeification  What do you mean, "No"?? Australians love us. They think they are some odd mix of Californians and Texans, after all. They love cattle ranches, like Texans. But, they love hanging out at the beach with babes, like Californians. Why hasn't Australia applied for statehood?? I think they should. Just think, if Australia was a state, then Donald Trump could have been your president, too. 😜😜😜😜💋💋
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  25. Climate Change has NOTHING to do with the current problems in globalization. China dumping products, like EV's, is a big problem. Countries must increase tariffs to protect themselves. PLUS, as Peter Zeihan keeps saying, the US is withdrawing from the world policeman role. Not exiting, just diminishing, IMO.
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  26. You first must talk about the cessation of China's maritime trade. It would halt completely. Meanwhile, US trade and economy would keep on humming along. The US does not need to defeat China militarily. The US merely must keep China from winning. As time goes on, the collapse of China's economy would bring victory. Remember, Germany surrendered in WW1 because of the collapse of its economy, not because it was defeated in the trenches, or because it could not produce armaments. China would almost certainly lose,
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  27. Rubbish. The Ukraine War has re-invigorated NATO, and reminded everyone just how strong the US and its allies truly are. China is seen as weaker now, having no way to challenge the west militarily, and having no defense against the huge sanctions the US can impose. The dollar is the last currency left standing. All the others are knocked out.
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  28. If Belarus attacks Ukraine, I don't think Ukraine will be as constrained in its response as it is against Russia. That is, Ukraine strikes and incursions into Belarus will likely happen. The west won't care. If Ukraine strikes into Belarus and occupies territory, then I think Lukashenko's rule will likely end.
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  29. The EU-Ukraine deal on ram materials was dated July 2021. Seven months later, Russia tries to annex Ukraine. Coincidence? I think not.
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  30. The question should not be, "What is the cause for India's growth?", B UT .... "What has been and continues to keep India's economy from growing as much as it should?" India has been its own worst enemy, preventing it from becoming an economic powerhouse.
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  31. US & NATO could establish an economic blockade. No nation would be allowed to trade anything with Russia by sea. No ship would be allowed to be used in such trade -- when a tanker or cargo ship is used to deliver goods to Russia, it will be seized when it leaves its Russian port and sunk or destroyed. Companies of all kinds around the world will be banned from dealing with Russia, subject to sanctions AND actions. That is, Russia would be cut off from the international order as completely as possible, with few leaks. Not like the present system where some countries can still trade with Russia. Those countries would be forced to decide which side they want to trade with -- no "in-between" policy will be tolerated or allowed. ANY country that sides with Russia would then be subject to the SAME sanctions and actions as Russia, as if they were a full ally with Russia. Like I said, no "in-between" ground.
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  32. Free trade, i.e. no or very low tariffs, has been too good for the world economy to be abandoned. So, why is there talk of it dying?? Simple -- China is the big guy not playing by the rules. So -- tariff barriers are being erected for China. Lucky them. I do not see why the G7, and the countries associated with them should be affected. China and Russia will be excluded, I expect. I expect the ASEAN nations to be included. Along with Latin America, Middle East, and Africa. Ones that are irritants to the world trade order will be excluded, and will have high tariffs. So, China, North Korea, Russia, Belorussia, and Iran will be excluded. I wonder how smaller troubled countries will be handled. South Sudan, Venezuela, Burkina Fasso, Yemen, and other problem ridden countries will have to be dealt with somehow. The majority of world trade is done by the G7 and their trading partners. I don't see why existing tariff rules would need to be changed for them.
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  33. Never heard of Alexander Dugin. Wikipedia has a nice entry about him. WOW ! He is a true nut case. The fact that Putin and Kremlin leadership listened to this guy, shows how out of touch they all are. Dugin hates the internet, and any trade or interaction with the west. As such, Dugin would celebrate the sanctions, especially the stoppage of SWIFT transactions.
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  34.  @EasternVikingTradeCompanyJSC  Regarding Primakov's strategy, I don't see how India would help Russia, if it wasn't opposed to the US and the west. My point is that India has not been anti-any country, as far as I can tell. China & Pakistan are the only countries India is against, and that is only because they both attack India.
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  35.  @EasternVikingTradeCompanyJSC  I know.
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  36.  @vlad_47  Turkey was NOT denied the Patriot. Turkey felt the S-400 was better. Since the S-400 and coming S-500 are designed to take down F-35's, the US felt that Turkey, or any country, cannot have both. SO, Turkey was kicked off the F-35 consortium. Turkey actually made parts for the F-35.
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  37.  @vlad_47  That is different from what I read -- US offered the Patriot, but Turkey insisted on the S-400. It is not a question of the S-400 being a threat, per se, but about information of the F-35, and how the S-400 could be tweaked to more easily track it. At least, that is how I understand it.
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  38.  @vlad_47  Turkey has always been a close ally of US, so there is no reason for the Patriot to be denied. Many of our allies use it. Erdogan, though, has turned anti-American ever since we wouldn't turn over some guy he said was involved in the attempted assassination. After that event, Erdogan has gone a bit coocoo.
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  39. According to a recent study by Yi Fuxian, China's population is 1.28 Billion, not 1.4 Billion. It started falling 20 years ago. China is in much worse demographic trouble than has been reported. The CCP COVID War on its own people will have a disastrous effect on both the economy and its demographics.
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  40.  @rogue254  I know. A bit surprising. Usually, religions want lots of kids. Muslims (usually), Catholic Church, Mormons -- all preach lots of kids to their followers. So, did it happen in Iran because of the Imams, or in spite of them?
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  41.  @thinkmatelearningsolutions5415  you say Zoroastrianism is still dominant in Persia? That is news to me. I hope you are right.
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  42.  @logikus8638  FO.
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  43.  @H.S.P55  "callous disregard for the individual human life, especially the male human life" Disagree. I think they have an equally callous disregard of female human lives, and children, too. In Bucha, the graves have male, female, and children bodies. No regard for any of them was apparent.
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  44.  @H.S.P55  Yes, if you are talking about targeting the men and boys of Russia, you are absolutely correct. When it comes to "enemies", all are killed.
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  45. Not the brink of collapse --- On the Threshold of Change. Same thing - different perspective.
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  46. The Ukraine War has woken the German people. The political parties, especially under Merkel, treated Russia as a non-threat, someone to do business with. That idea is now over, I think. I expect Germany to support Ukraine and Eastern Europe in the future against Russia. IF Germany does not, then I don't see how the EU can continue. The EU cannot continue to exist if its core members, Germany and France, will not protect the Eastern Europe members.
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  47. I find it interesting that America's two enemies are committing Hari Kiri. Russia and China are committing suicide. Both are forcing their own decline and abasement. In ten years, people will wonder what all the fuss was about regarding the pathetically weak China & Russia.
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  48.  @iwillnoteatzebugs  So far, for every Ukrainian killed, several Russian soldiers die.
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  49.  @calitaliarepublic6753  They weren't Russia's nukes. They were Ukraine's, inherited from the Soviet Union. Ukraine gave them up, after assurances from Russia, US, and UK. I bet Ukraine builds more nukes after this war ends.
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  50. Russia's problem is that Putin and others in Russia still view the world through a 19th century lens. They still think in terms of mercantilism, and do not understand the Global Trading system. That system guarantees everyone, including Russia and China, full access to free world trade. They don't even have to have a navy to take advantage of it. China's growth occurred BEFORE it started building up its military. China has a military, and is using it to bully and threaten its neighbors. China threatens the world trade order -- which was the source of its wealth. That world trade system is now reacting against China, threatening to end China's export led growth. Russia COULD HAVE DONE THE SAME. But, NOoooo, Putin has to play the bully and bad guy. So, the nascent rise of Russia onto the world stage, was ended. Contracts, like the huge one with Exxon, were cancelled. Putin has isolated Russia, and hamstrung its economy. But, Russians still support Putin. They are not very bright.
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