Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "China Truths" channel.

  1. What is not being considered is the youth unemployment problem is occurring during a demographic collapse. A demographic collapse means a low number of young people --- which should mean high demand for young workers. Businesses should be competing to hire the few young workers available. The only way that youth unemployment can be high is if the economy is collapsing. China is in deep deep trouble.
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  2. Therefore, the stock market in China is in danger of actually disappearing altogether. If companies cannot operate then there's no reason to buy or sell their stocks
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  3. I wonder if pay reduction or salary retention has hit the PLA?? If so, that would explain so many PLA resigning. Normally, in hard difficult times, more people want to join the military.
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  4. A stock market can only exist when there is a society in a culture that supports free enterprise. At least to some degree.
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  5. As I see it, China is experiencing a collapse of its system, not any mere economic recession, depression, or cyclical downturn. An economic problem would inherently be temporary and cyclical. China's collapse I think will be permanent.
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  6. Personally I think we are witnessing the total collapse of a country and a society. How far it's going to fall in exactly what's going to happen no one can know.
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  7. Given the nature of home ownership and the huge amount of over supply of housing, I think renting is the wiser choice. The over supply should mean low rents. Renting a unit leaves more money for the renter.
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  8. China war talk creates a big problem for China. Normal maritime trade ceases in a war zone due the loss of maritime insurance. So, even if US or other countries do not blockade China, its maritime trade with be hit severely if China attacks Taiwan. That also means disruption of China based supply chains.
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  9. The idea of buying homes BEFORE they are built is not typically done in the US. Even though contract laws protect American homeowners. For instance, one does not start paying the mortgage until the home is fully completed. How Chinese must pay a mortgage even BEFORE their home is finished, I find incredible. It is not done like that anywhere else in the world, I think.
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  10. China has not changed any policies. Can anyone name one significant policy change?? Abandoning Wolf Warrior is merely a change of style.
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  11. What is happening to China was expected, at least by me. What is surprising is how fast it is happening, and the breadth of the impact on China.
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  12. China's decline has both internal and external causes. Externally, investors are leaving, and companies are moving their manufacturing to other countries. BUT -- what really does not make sense to me, is how Xi and the CCP are participating in China's decline. 1. Constantly threatening war raises perceived risks for companies. Not a good idea. 2. Shutting down whole industries, like the private education industry doesn't help. 3. The new security law is having a huge negative impact on China. Foreign executives and businessmen are now afraid of going to China. 4. Of course, the continuing theft of intellectual property can no longer be tolerated. It was tolerated because opportunities were so great that they out-ranked the costs of the theft. Now, though, possible returns no longer support the theft of intellectual property. These are actions done by the CCP and Xi that add to China's misery.
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  13. Don't bet on it. The CCP will cling to power with every bit of their strength. The CCP may be declining, but that does not mean it will give up power easily. There is no level of misery and horror that it will inflict on China, if that means it can cling to power for one more minute. Look at the Tsars. Tsarist rule had been horrifying for 200 years, and it managed to survive a long time. Imperial rule in China was often not nice, yet Chinese empires lasted hundreds of years. Just because they made a mess of things now, does not mean they will leave easily or quietly.
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  14.  @MeepChangeling  I see it as the economy being there -- but built on sand - and so could not last. Plus, China did have a choice. It could have instituted a legal based system with laws and real contracts. But, the CCP could not do that. It is beyond their comprehension.
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  15. The "last mile" could also refer to the final walk a prisoner takes to be executed.
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  16. As the Chinese sink into poverty, I wonder how that will be accepted?? 50 years ago, poverty was universal, and traditional for most Chinese. Since then, many became middle class, or at least lower middle class. Their children know nothing of poverty, and will be crushed if they become poor. The desperation and anger will be immense. Huge social and political pressures will happen, I expect. Will that pressure cause society and government to explode??
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  17. Considering China's demographics -- unemployment should be low, not high. China's demographic collapse from its one Child policy means that it has fewer young people than it needs to operate the growth economy it has had for the past 40 years. With fewer young people, the demand for their labor should be higher, not lower. Companies should be in a bidding war over them giving higher employment and rising wages. But, INSTEAD, China is scaring companies into abandoning China, taking their factories elsewhere. So, fewer jobs. Catastrophically fewer jobs. China no longer has the growth economy of the past 40 years. China has a new, very different, economy.
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  18. What are cables made of that can burn?? Cotton?? Never heard of steel support cables burning. That is crazy.
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  19. Sub-standard construction is standard. Are any buildings build with procedures and materials normally used in other countries?? Does not seem so.
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  20.  @knightwolf3511  That is correct. When people reach their breaking point, you never know what horrific actions they are capable of.
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  21.  @DK-ev9dg  Actually -- not. China's laws under imperial rule were edicts not laws. There is a difference.
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  22. Some of the in-store busiess has moved on-line. Some or most? That is what we need to know. For the stores to be that empty, yet sales to be down only 3% tells me that a lot of the shoppin has moved on-line.
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  23. Construction workers are like all people - they are creatures of habit. If they always use poor materials and practices then they will forget proper building techniques. New workers will never be taught proper techniques. Chinese architects have said buildings in China are not intended to last more than 50 years. That's incredible. All buildings in the west are expected to last indefinitely with minor maintenance. Bridges, train stations, homes, office buildings, and all other buildings built 100 years ago in New York, or London, or Chicago are all still standing and used, unless intentionally torn down and replaced. How can China replace in 50 years all the buildings it has built in the last 20?
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  24. Problem with dictatorship -- Xi cannot shift blame to anyone. He has all the power. He makes all decisions. Xi is responsible for everything. Xi gets all the blame.
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  25.  @Fleshox19-uz3qt  I doubt any nation does it the Chinese way.
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  26. With government workers and members of the military getting 50% pay cuts will China be able to maintain its weapons development and procurement programs?? Will they even be able to maintain required training?? Will they be able do needed maintenance?? The collapse of China's economy is going to have profound impacts.
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  27. Xi Jinping thought that he and China could bully the world. He didn't realize countries in a modern global economy can only win by playing along. Countries in the world economy are like players on a team. To succeed, they have to play together and help each other. China decided to play for itself only. So, now China is suffering. Like what happens to a teammate who is a jerk. No one passes him the ball. No one supports his plays. A player like that may be on the field, but he is no longer really playing anymore. That is what is happening to China. Investors are taking their money back. Companies are moving production to other countries that will be more cooperative and play by the rules.
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  28. Non-payment of wages has become common in China. How could the non-payment of wages to these hospital workers be unreported until now --- months after it started. If that happened in US, it would be front page news on the first day.
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  29.  @kamsunleong6648  There is more than one way for discontent to cause a revolution.
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  30. Does flooding of the Forbidden City prove the CCP losing the mandate of Heaven?? Doesn't every Chinese dynasty end when it loses the mandate of Heaven?? If so, maybe CCP's time is coming to an end.
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  31. It is not about saving China's real estate market. It is much bigger. It is about saving China's real estate & construction industries, and about saving China's ability to fund local governments.
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  32.  @kayakeraltamaha5720  Don't worry about them. Insurance companies are stable. Banks have more problems than insurance companies. If they lose money, they just charge higher rates to the next guy.
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  33. And yet, China's GDP is claimed to grow at 5% rate. Absurd. It is shrinking.
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  34. The US Great Depression really started when the banks crashed. That was when small depositors lost everything. Businesses could not pay their employees or buy materials. The crash of '29 hit speculators and financiers. The banking crash hit everyone. China's failing banks will hit everyone. Not just those with investments and properties. In the US, people lost faith in banks. People hoarded cash, putting it in mattresses, and under floor boards. People hated banks. Bank robbers like Pretty Boy Floyd and Dillinger became popular heroes. I expect social unrest and disruption in China will grow. The next few years will be very interesting there. I am glad not to be a Chinese citizen. Poor buggers.
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  35. The real estate and debt bubbles were always going to burst. That was inevitable. However, Xi's animosity and threats to the West made China's future a disaster. Companies are fleeing China. That did not have to be.
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  36.  @oltedders  True. But think of all the owners of investment properties that cannot sell. They need to rent, and there are LOTS of them.
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  37.  @oltedders  Nice phrase.
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  38.  @pennycandyys  Did not mean to imply that it is static. It is not. It is collapsing. Citizens are losing their wealth. The country is going back to the impoverished condition it was in 40 years ago. Its demographics are different now, and it won't be able to duplicate the export led growth economy it used to get wealthy. Too bad.
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  39. My guess -- No one from the development firm lives in this development. Am I wrong?
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  40. Stats don't match what we see. Stats say growth in sales. We see closed plants, closed shopping malls, closed restaurants, and empty streets. How could there be any sales growth?? Stats should be saying huge decline.
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  41. Survival mode?? I am under the impression that China's economy is in Suicide Mode.
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  42.  @daniellafferety4025  They do seem to be stuck in that Mao mind-set. In fact, the CCP is getting worse. Persecution of the Falun Gong has become even more brutal. The CCP has also decided to use fines to fund their local governments, because they lost real estate development as a funding source. What they are doing is unsustainable. We know its going to fall apart. We just cannot know exactly how or when.
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  43. Isn't the PLA rife with incompetence, not just corruption??
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  44. US voters do not follow US/China developments. Biden's actions have little to do with how voters will vote. Biden is a child of the Cold War, and he sees China thru that lens.
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  45. 2006? That is if China is lucky. I think China's economy is going back to 2080. Mass poverty. Starvation. Destroyed lives. China's government will cease to work. China will be isolated from the world economy. Banks will close. Wealth of families across China will be destroyed.
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  46. When needed material is not where it is needed, the problem is very likely incompetence. Corruption could cause the same problem, but the cure is different.
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  47. The US should not accept immigrants from China. Chinese do not integrate into US society. We don't need their arrogance.
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  48. Slowing growth?? --- Wrong. Contraction & shrinkage of the economy. China won't grow again for many years.
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  49.  @mariawhite7337  That would be like Christmas lights burning a steel beam. Makes no sense.
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  50.  @Ruteger100  Agreed. Why are Chinese so stupid?? If I was there, I would only rent. Renting puts me in a position to negotiate, and to leave if the deal goes south. I understand they cannot invest easily. Can't they put money in gold or gems?
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