Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "TIKhistory"
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Interesting argument justifying Hitler's orders to "stand fast", "no retreat". With no oil, a maneuver war cannot be fought, so retreating, consolidating, and attacking again had become infeasible. So, retreating was useless. However, sacrificing your men is also useless. It is really a "rock and a hard place" type of situation for Hitler and Germany. Neither action is good.
But, with this context, Hitler's decision seems, at least, not mad, and even arguably the better decision.
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1. Germany had another opportunity to get oil, and a better one, IMO. DON"T attack Russia ------ Continue to attack UK, through Egypt, into Iraq & Arabia. There was lots of oil there. PLUS, Germany would have split Britain from India.
2. Ultimately, having oil was not Germany's problem -- it was moving it around. When the Germans abandoned their equipment in France for lack of oil, it was not because Germany had no oil -- it was because oil transport and processing had been destroyed or greatly reduced.
SO, even if Germany had lots of oil. Even if the Ploesti fields in Romania had been able to produce all of Germany's needs, that oil would not have been able to be used -- at least on the Western Front. The US & UK bomber offensive were finally successful in targeting oil transport.
This is my alternative view.
WW2 is very complex, and I think any claim that one thing or another was the cause of victory or defeat is treading on very dangerous and debatable ground.
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The main problem with these analyses, IMO, is that they assume a totally rational mind.
To me, that is absurd. Humans are emotional creatures.
When we make decisions, they usually come from our emotions.
We buy what we want, not what we rationally need.
We make decisions from love, hate, desire, fear, etc. -- all emotions.
Hitler made his decision to go to war against Poland, because he wanted to.
He detested Poles. He wanted their land. AND, he wanted to kill them.
To him, that meant war.
To try and put rational thought into this, assuming he was after geopolitical goals, is silly, IMO.
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DISAGREE WITH YOU STRONGLY.
Hitler did not operate rationally from ANY point of view.
Now, that does not make him a mad man. He was evil, that's for sure, but not mad, IMO.
The thing is, everyone makes decisions based on their emotions.
When we desire something strongly, ALL of us tend to make wrong decisions.
Afterwards, if someone looked closely, we could be accused of being "mad".
How many people fall in love, and the relationship is a total disaster.
A disaster that friends and relatives knew was going to happen all along.
Do we call those people "mad"??
Perhaps we should, but we don't.
I think Hitler's decision to go to war was an emotional decision.
I think he convinced himself that Britain would not go to war, and was genuinely surprised when it did.
His thinking makes no sense. But, that does not make him "mad", just making decisions based on his passions.
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People can convince themselves of many things that are obviously untrue.
We we desperately want something to be true, we make ourselves believe it
Most of us have known friends or relatives who were in love, and truly believed that they were loved in return.
They believed that, when to every observer, it was obvious they were being cheated on and disrespected.
Despite what seemed like obvious evidence, they still continued to believe.
Denial is so common, that it is to be expected.
IMO, Hitler had convinced himself that Britain would never declare war, and
that the Munich Pact was as empty as Britain's commitment to Czechoslovakia.
After all, what was the difference between Poland and Czechoslovakia??
Why would Britain let one die, and go to war for the other.
That made no sense, I am sure.
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Huh?? Hitler was NOT trying to start a war when he did.
He was, at that point in time, just constructing Greater Germany.
He got Austria and Czechoslovakia (which used to be part of Austria-Hungary.
He wanted to unite East Prussia with the main part of Germany.
He wanted the Danzig Corridor. That was denied.
So, he took it.
AND, he was not expecting France & Uk to go to war over that.
I mean, little old Poland and its Danzig Corridor??
They didn't go to war over Rhineland, or Austria, or Czechoslovakia...
So, why would they go to war over Poland??
They would be crazy to do that, so Hitler thought, I believe.
Remember, Hitler liked the british. He didn't like the French, but he respected them.
He did want Lebensraum, which did mean farming, too.
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Seems to me that the 20th Century has been a demographic disaster for Russia.
In 1900, the population was around 140 million, and the population of the world was 1.6 Billion.
In 1900, 8.75% of the worlds population was Russian, China's was 400M for 23.5%, and US was 76M for 4.5%.
Today, out of 7.8 Billion, Russia has 146 M for 1.87%, China has 1,439M for 18.7%, and US has 331M for 4.24%.
Interestingly, only America and India (17%) have maintained their percentages of world population.
This fall of Russia from having lots of people to having much fewer is a major issue for Russia.
I would like to see more discussion and analysis of this.
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The causes of Germany's defeat on the Eastern Front are many. One of the causes was the greater resources and manpower available to Russia. Also, Germany had to fight on two fronts, Russia did not. If it was strictly Germany against Russia, it might have been very different.
However, there were other profound reasons ---
-- Germany's lack of oil. Romania could not supply enough oil. Its chronic shortage effected both logistics and strategy.
-- German tank design and construction caused breakdown and repair problems. Russia vastly outproduced Germany in armor. Plus, Russian tank design was superior overall.
-- Germany fought the war basically alone, while Russia received huge supplies from the US.
-- Russian intelligence was superior to Germany's. For instance, Russia knew the German battle plan before the Battle of Kursk. Zhukov knew exactly where to put his defenses.
Operationally, I do believe the Germans were superior. I don't think Russia fully recovered from the pre-war purges.
As usual, the truth is more complex, thus it lies somewhere in-between the two extremes.
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BTW, I disagree with his dismissal of "revisionist historians". True, every bonafide historian will revise history through added research, and more considered interpretations based on serious reviews of material. They may revise history, but they are NOT "revisionist historians".
TO ME, the term "revisionist historian" is one that actually denies or discounts proven source material to promote a patently false and politically motivated view. For instance, the holocaust is absolutely proved with thousands of video, audio, and written personal accounts, Nazi camp records and confessions. Yet, there are "revisionist historians' who deny the holocaust. They are trying to rewrite history by writing the holocaust out of it.
"Revisionist historians" are a particularly evil people, that deserve the worst.
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I had no idea all this went on.
For a long time, I felt that if Hitler had NOT done Barbarossa,
but instead, put more forces in Africa, that Rommel could
have gotten the oil in Iraq.
This video shows that it was there for the taking for Hitler.
IF Hitler had NOT done Barbarossa, but instead put all
his efforts on getting Iraq's oil, and kicking Britain out of
the Middle East, he would have achieved a possible war winning advantage.
1. UK would have been separated from India,
2. UK would not have easy access to oil
3. UK and allies would have been kicked out of the Mediterranean. Operation Torch
would have become difficult, if not impossible.
4. Germany would have Russia out-flanked. Germany could have attacked through the
Caucasus and taken Baku, much more easily.
5. Without the oil from Baku, Russia would likely have lost.
I still think the overwhelming production of the US would have still led to Allied victory,
it would have taken longer, and cost more lives.
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