Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "The Infographics Show"
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Another thing I notice, is that when Euros come to the US, they nibble around at the edges, going to coastal towns like Boston, New York, and Miami. They might go to the other coast and visit LA or San Francisco. They rarely get to the hinterland - Chicago, Minneapolis, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Colorado, etc. I think they are afraid of being swallowed by the size of the US.
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There is way too much oil that can be pumped out, than can ever be used.
Ask yourself --- "How do they know how may barrels of oil are in continental shelves that have not be drilled yet?"
Answer is simple -- oil deposits were laid down mostly during Global Anoxic Events in the Mesozoic.
The Earth became very hot from excess CO2, and the oceans became anoxic (without oxygen).
All life below about 25 ft in the oceans died.
Animals that died near the surface, dropped down, decayed anoxically, and oil deposits were formed.
Eventually, enough CO2 was taken out of the air, so that ocean currents started up again, and oceans became oxygenated.
This happened many times. Each time leaving more oil deposits.
That is why oil deposits are on continental shelves, or land that was under water in the Mesozoic.
That is why oil companies know there are oil deposits in the Arctic or the South China Sea or off the coast of Brazil without doing ANY drilling. Sure, they have to find it, but they know its there.
Just like they knew there was likely to be oil in the Mediterranean Sea (the old Tethys Sea), making Israel an oil state.
We are pumping, using, and burning the carbon nature sequestered to end the Global Anoxic Events of the past.
They are associated with extinction events.
NO, we will NEVER run out of oil.
We might run out of food, and livable conditions, but we will NEVER run out of oil.
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Why will the new world order look like the post WW2 world order???
Simple, almost all countries benefitted from it.
China's attacks on the current order -- especially by its rapacious fishing fleets that flout the NCLOS designation of the EEZ's of countries around the world -- have frightened and angered many nations.
The idea that China might be allowed to go even further is too scary.
Countries will oppose China, especially if the US leads in the opposition.
Many countries have problems with the US, and oppose its policies in specific areas.
However, China's attack on the world order is so profound, and so threatening to world peace and trade, that those issues will be put aside.
I have noticed the idea of an Indo-Pacific Alliance grow in recent years. Two or three years ago, the idea was not even mentioned. I am not sure, but I may have been the first to propose it on YouTube. (I know I had not seen it.)
But, now, the idea is talked about. China has even made threats concerning it, which means they are scared of the idea.
As China continues its threats in the SCS, the felt need for an IPA will grow.
Unless China changes its attitude (unlikely), I see the creation of an Indo-Pacific Alliance as being inevitable. By 2025, if not sooner.
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It is true that carriers are vulnerable. All weapon systems, bases, and countries are vulnerable.
The question is not "can a foe sink our carriers?"...
The question is "can a foe tolerate or even survive the US response?"
For instance, say China attacks an American fleet in the SCS and sinks a carrier.
What would the US do??
I think the US would then respond swiftly, with swarms of missiles attacking and sinking China's naval ships worldwide.
China's bases in the SCS would be obliterated - not a crab or seashell left intact.
Any Chinese air force planes outside of China's air space would be shot down.
A full blockade would be put on China -- not ship, not a boat, not a raft being allowed out or in.
How long would China's economy last with that??
If China EVER attacks and sinks an American ship, it will be destroyed.
However, Xi and the CCP act as if they think everyone is weak and cowardly.
So, Xi and the CCP just might start a war somewhere, with somebody.
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You failed to account for or analyze the impact of combat support vessels and logistics.
The American carrier does NOT fight alone - it is always part of a task force, which will include a Ticonderoga cruiser, 1 or 2 Burke Destroyers, an Attack class nuclear submarine, and supporting supply and logistics ships.
Moreover, a Carrier Strike Group may be augmented with additional carriers, cruisers, and destroyers and subs to make an adequate response to ANY threat. So, if one CSG is not enough to take out the Chinese navy, then it will be expanded until it can do the task.
It will be 20 to 30 years before China has that ability.
However, I do expect it to have that ability -- someday.
But, NOT today.
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The world trade order after WW2 was built and ensured by US and western Europe.
The coming world trade order will be ensured by US, India, Western Europe, and Japan.
Many minor powers, like Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, and others will follow their lead.
Any country trying to upset that world order will find themselves isolated, and expelled from world trade (if they persist).
The new world order will look like the Bretton Woods world of the 70 years, only the countries actively supporting it militarily will be slightly different.
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