Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "laowhy86" channel.

Global distrust of China is so deep, that even if the CCP collapsed, I doubt nations of the world would quickly welcome and support whatever comes after the CCP.
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I lived in England for a few years. When I went, I expected to find US 2.0, or our 51st state. I saw their movies, read their books. I knew the English -- or so I thought. After living there, I came to see them as being very different. Lovable, quirky, but different. I was very relieve to get back to the US after 3 years. I cannot begin to understand what you experienced in China. Through you and Serpentza, I have gotten a tiny glimpse of how alien China is from America. I have difficulty in seeing how you stayed their for so many years. Like you, I came back with a higher appreciation of what we have over other places, even like Britain. I enjoy people from other countries and cultures. But, you are on a whole other level from me. Both your toleration and enjoyment of other peoples amazes me. One more thing -- you are very eloquent. You use words very efficiently and precisely. There is no ambiguity to your prose. That is rare today.
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BTW, Laowhy86, great report. Your reports are always thought provoking. This time, a bit scary, too.
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Laowhy, why are you painting such a rosy picture of China?? Sure, you say you are showing how its failing, but you only scratch the surface of its failure. You didn't mention its tofu dreg infrastructure, with tunnels, bridges, and roads falling down or caving in. You didn't mention the transit, education, and government workers not getting paid for months, going on years. You didn't mention the empty malls, and shuttered restaurants. You didn't mention the exploding unemployment. You didn't mention the containers building up at China's ports as exports crash. You didn't mention banks freezing people's bank accounts and stealing their money. You didn't mention the flight of the rich leaving China, taking what money they can. You didn't mention the huge increase in illegal Chinese immigrants being caught at our border. Like I said, you painted an optimistic up-beat assessment, IMO. It is way way worse, Laowhy.
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@s.beaumier8765 IMO, if the CCP collapses, China should be encouraged to break up into 3 to 5 different nations. That would be better for the Chinese, and better for the world.
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@nils9853 Being suppressed in deep despair has been the condition of the Chinese for thousands of years. It is their culture. They won't revolt. The CCP is in total control. CCP policies, though, are unsustainable. At some point, it will collapse. Only then, will there be civil unrest strong enough to have impact.
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Very well said. Thank you. About propaganda --- Dictatorships, I think, try to keep the truth and lies separate. Truth for themselves - lies for their party and the people. Lies for their party members, to keep them motivated and enthralled. Lies for the people, for obvious reasons. The KGB in Russia, I think tried to keep truth & lies separated. However, the way China is structured, I don't think they have any mechanism for keeping truth & lies separated. That means that overly patriotic pilots, captains, or bureaucrats will likely overstep their orders someday to sink an American ship, or shoot down a Taiwanese plane, or attack India. And, in this way, a shooting war will start. It seems so clear to me. I don't see how it can be avoided.
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I totally agree. FYI.. Taiwan has an arsenal of domestically designed and produced quality missiles that can shoot down planes, sink boats, and attack mainland China. Taiwan has missiles that can go at least 600 miles. Taiwan has been producing these missiles for the last 30 years. Taiwan has excellent engineers to produce sophisticated radars, and jamming devices. I doubt Taiwan's missiles can be easily defeated with ECM, since I expect them to have ECCM. The Taiwan Strait has high sea states, that is, it is not very calm usually. Amphibious assaults are difficult. Most of China's troop ships will be sunk. People think that just China is big, that it will have an easy time, and will just walk into Taiwan. The dangerous part is that it is possible that the CCP believes its own propaganda. After all, who has the courage to tell Xi that he is wrong??? The hubris and self-delusion of the CCP is what may lead it to war. That is the problem with being "logical" and "rational". You are assuming people will think rationally. If Hitler was rational, he would never had started WW2. If Kaiser Wilhelm was logical, he never would have given carte blanche to Austria in 1913. If Napoleon was rational he would never had invaded Russia. I don't think logic or rationality are good predictors of military policymaking. But, China will lose if they try it.
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Whoa -- not CSIS again. IMO, they are not competent. The CSIS "study" makes assertions, but does not back them up. What is more, the assertions are idiotic. For example, it asserts the US will lose several nuclear subs.' Oh yeah?? How? China cannot locate any of our subs underwater. How is China supposed to target and kill them?? Next, it claims US will lose several carriers. Again, HOW?? The US is NOT going to put our carrier groups within the first island chain -- for obvious reasons. China may have missiles capable of getting through our ECM systems, but I doubt that. China has NOT shown that any of its systems are able of defeating ours. HOWEVER - that is actually beside the point. WHY?? Simple -- why would Japan or US be involved at all?? A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will NOT survive the advanced anti-ship missiles Taiwan has. Taiwan makes the advanced chips, and has the techs that can put them into their HF missiles. The HF2 and HF3 can take out ANY Chinese ship. How will their ships survive the hundreds of missiles Taiwan has?? NEXT -- the HF-2e missile is long range and precise -- it can hit targets in EVERY Chinese port. What makes you even think all the Chinese ships will be able to put to sea to start the invasion??? Taiwan has the means to destroy China's navy with their missiles. Can China intercept and defeat Taiwan's missiles?? Maybe -- but not all of them. Only a few of China's ships might have sophisticated anti-missile tech. But, those systems can be defeated with multiple missiles. Now, the question becomes -- how many missiles does Taiwan have? AND, how effective are their ECCM systems?? Well, Taiwan has been making its missiles for over 20 years now. I expect them to have thousands, IMO. We know they have several hundred Harpoons. We also know that Taiwan has increased its defense spending a lot recently. The CSIS study seemed to me to be a scare tactic to induce increased defense spending by the US. BTW -- don't forget China has no answer to the F-35's of US & Japan.
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In past dynasties, people killed by floods, wars, and other disasters were quickly replaced by the high birth rate. Today, though, the birth rate is about 1.0. Too low to replace those who die from old age. Those who die from floods, wars, and other disasters will NEVER be replaced.
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Why would Elon Musk say that Taiwan should give land or a district over to the CCP?? Why? Well, could it be that Elon has Billion$ in production and market potential in the China EV market?? Would Elon sell his morals and humanity for $$$??? You bet he would. The fact that he has committed future production in China proves he already has sold his soul to Xi & the CCP.
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Countries demonize people they are at war with, or preparing to go to war with. Remember how the British called Germans the "Hun" in WW2. US called Vietnamese "Gooks" during our war with them. For me, this is evidence that China intends war soon.
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That CSIS paper assumes a very competent Chinese military. There is no evidence of that
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This will, at least, build a wall between the Chinese people and the rest of the world. That will reduce business dealings and cooperation. It will reduce China as a market for western goods. China is removing itself from the world trade system, it seems. This will impoverish China. Which will anger the Chinese people. IF they blame the west, and not the CCP, then war might become inevitable.
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Thank you for all your work and insight into China. However, I am more optimistic than you. Propaganda comes with huge problems. First, China's own people end up believing it. That means that policy decisions and strategies are made assuming the propaganda is true. That ends with huge mistakes. For instance, it seems Putin actually believed his own propaganda that Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops as saviors with joy and open arms. Instead, they are being assassinated. Xi and the CCP do not understand the world around them. That is why China keeps making fools of themselves. That is why China has developed so many enemies. That is why nations cannot move their companies out of China fast enough. Lastly, as China's economy collapses, the desperation of the Chinese will become so great, that they will explode. That, I firmly believe, is what will happen.
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A fellow I work with worked in China for a few years, about 12 years ago. He told me what your name "laowhy" means. Nice choice. Very appropriate.
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So, you think the CCP and Xi are stupid. Have you looked at Russia and what Putin is doing? They are even dumber. China and Russia are like a new version of Dumb & Dumber. Only this time, they aren't funny.
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Losing allies??? How can China lose what it never had??
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When people cannot access their bank accounts, they wont be able to pay their mortgages. The Great Depression was not caused by the stock market crash, but by the banking collapse that came later. I think the lying down movement will grow, and everything will halt
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Battle of the bands ---- Jay & the Americans vs. Xi & the CCP. Who would win?? I bet no one gets this joke. Too old.
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Problem is, the Republican party now acts like the CCP. The GOP creates a problem, then blames democrats. Trump acts like a fascist, then accuse democrats of being fascist. They suppress voting rights, then accuse democrats of stealing votes. They stifle legislation, then blame democrats for getting nothing done. If the GOP is successful in blocking democrat progressive policies, then we will sink to the level of the CCP and China.
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I do not see how, if food prices are "going through the roof", that poor people are not profoundly affected. Did you have to say that to get past the Chinese censors??
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@Xbalanque84 Yeah, it is.
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BRICS is NOT an alliance. They did not sign any pact defining military, economic, or other support commitments to each other. It was merely a shorthand expression used by an economist to talk about the countries he felt were going to grow the most by 2050. Well, he was wrong. South Africa is a kleptocracy that cannot keep its lights on. China is collapsing as companies flee. Russia is committing economic suicide. Brazil? Well, it is Brazil. India? The only one of the group that is normal, and will grow a lot in next 30 years.
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The cheating. Bad food to hurt the health and performance of players. Horrible conditions. Bad housing. Abuse of reporters. etc. etc. etc. China looks like a nation of thugs. Xi and the CCP is showing us the real China. Good job.
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Boycott Disney.
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Kim Jong Un & Xi ---- or Pinky & The Brain.
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The US has long standing good relations with most countries, and several long standing stable alliances. China's foreign policy has been unstable and quixotic. So it has no solid relationships, except for North Korea, for what that is worth. It threatens war with many of its neighbors. Those are actually antagonistic. As China loses its wealth, it won't be able to offer much to anyone.
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@FilipMacioszek Agreed. He could go on for hours about all the disasters happening in China. I very much like his description of China suffering the "death of a thousand cuts". If it was just one or two disasters, China would be able to cope. But all the things going wrong at once, and the permanent nature of many of them, means China will not be able to cope. China is DOOMED. Doomed, I say. DOOMED ! ! !
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A big reason why I think China might miscalculate and invade Taiwan is the Galwan incident. China attacked Indian soldiers, and ended up having 40+ Chinese soldiers killed -- even though the Chinese out numbered the Indians several times. Why did China do that? Simple - they thought they could easily win, because they believed their own propaganda about Indian troops.
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Good analysis. Very logical. One problem -- people, leaders, ruling elite, often don't act rational. Seems to me that many of the elite in China actually believe their own propaganda. That is why, I think, there is a distinct possibility that China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan. I say "attempt" because I don't think China has a snowball's chance in hell of successfully invading Taiwan. IF they try, most of the invasion fleet will end up sunk in the Taiwan Strait, or even sunk in their home ports.
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The Chinese system is collapsing. Personal & family wealth is disappearing as the real estate market crashes. The currency and economy will crash as the banking system collapses. The world will do its best to shield itself from the collapse of China. However, that will fail. The world economy will suffer greatly, as the economic shock wave of China's collapse sweeps around the globe.
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China lost face, and looked like fools. Agreed. But, nothing happened when China did not invade Taiwan in the past. Nothing happened to the CCP, or to the past leaders. So, why should the CCP or Xi suffer if they don't invade Taiwan. Seems to me, the people of China are so completely cowed and controlled that they will never challenge the CCP. They will not rise up.
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