Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Another daily dose of cheer from Peter.
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  2. Good analysis. Agreed with everything you said. Loved your description of the nordic countries -- "City states masquerading as nation states". Hilarious.
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  3.  @sumotony  Changing guage does not impact other structures. Like the guy said. US did it in a few days. Ukraine will do it.
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  4.  @quartermaster1976  Yes. But the proudest. In Chicago, there are beggars on the street asking for handouts. In Oaxaca? I have not had ONE person beg for a handout in the six months I have been here. Now you will see people selling items, or fruit, or to clean your window. It is transactional, not begging. I greatly respect and admire the people of Oaxaca. Also, in Oaxaca, homes and streets are clean and well maintained. They may not be rich, but they have pride and self-respect. I am glad to live here.
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  5. I just moved to Oaxaca from Chicago. One thing I notice here, compared to Chicago, is how many young children there are here. Babies and toddlers are everywhere. I don't know about the rest of Mexico, but it sure does not look like a demographic collapse here.
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  6.  @michaellindqvist5288  City states was how ancient Greece, and other places were organized in the ancient world. It is a nation that consists of a city and its immediate area. Rome started that way, too. By "city state", I take it that Peter sees Norway as little more than Oslo and lots of land, and Sweden as Stockholm, and Finland as Helsinki. Their main cities being the countries basically.
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  7. Old Russian tanks do perform a great service ----- Target practice for Ukrainian tankers. Can never get too much practice.
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  8. I knew in March, when Russia failed to take Kiev, that Ukraine was going to win this war. The analysis is quite simple. Russia started a war of conquest. To win, Russia needs to conquer. For Ukraine, all Ukraine has to do is to not lose, to keep its army fighting. This is similar to the American situation fighting the British in our Revolutionary War. Washington just had to keep the war going, until the British got tired and quit. Yorktown did not end that war, really. The war ended when Parliament, after hearing about Yorktown defeat, decided to stop the war. Here, the same thing. As long as Ukraine fights, the war continues. At some point, as in Afghanistan, Russia will have had enough, and stop. Ukraine CANNOT lose, as long as it keeps fighting. Stopping Russia from taking Kiev means that Russia cannot conquer. So, it must lose. It is quite logical.
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  9.  @DoubleDogDare54  No need mine the harbors. Just say you did. LOL
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  10.  @eduardelric  The indigenous people in Oaxaca tend to speak multiple languages. My cleaning lady is Mixe. She speaks Spanish, too.
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  11. I am sure the Angola trip is a move to cope with China's moves in Africa. Directing infrastructure to the Atlantic is good move.
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  12. Peter is such a negative Nelly. He only sees how things will end. (and it is always a catastrophic end.) He fails to see how people and societies will cope. First, automation is allowing us to produce more with fewer people. In fact, automation is developing to the point, where the machines are self maintaining. So, living standards may not need to drop as much as he thinks as workers retire, and there are fewer workers to take their place.
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  13. Peter, your "reasonable military assessment" is wrong. 1. 100 miles of ocean is no small thing to traverse. 2. Amphibious assaults are the most difficult military operation of all. And China has ZERO experience. Chance of success is about nil. 3. D-Day was difficult, and we had no resistance, until we hit the beaches. China's ships have to survive a 100 to 200 mile trip not being hit by Taiwan missiles. Taiwan has 400 Harpoons. Taiwan's native missiles, HF-2, 2e, 3 are advanced and effective. They have ECCM, so are not easily defeated. They have several thousand of those. HOW can China's fleet survive to put troops on Taiwan?? Ans: They can't. 4. Mobilizing for an invasion will take months, and will be observed by the US. The US will have MANY months to prepare for the invasion. China cannot prepare in secret. Your statement assumes US doesn't know and responds to the invasion. That is not what will happen. The US will know, and pre-position naval and air assets long before China launches its invasion. 5. You are assuming it would be a quick and easy victory for China. Well, many long wars started out with the expectations of it being a short war. These wars were supposed to last weeks ---- WW1, WW2, American Civil War, Vietnam War, Napoleon's Spanish Campaign.
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  14. Whats more...Wagner mercenaries need to be paid. Putin running out of money.
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  15. Typically, I agree with Zeihan's facts, BUT --- disagree with his conclusions. Insurance companies do not exist on an island, by themselves. They exist to serve corporate interests. Maritime insurance serves global corporate interests. Global maritime trade will continue, its safety ensured and enforced. Politically, the US and other countries MAY be coming to be more insular and self involved. That does NOT really matter. If you think domestic politics controls the use and application of the US military --- you are wrong, IMO. Global corporate interests will make sure that the US, Japan, EU, Saudi Arabia, India, and ALL other advanced countries with money to enforce global maritime activities.
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  16. Have to disagree with Peter on this. It is good to learn from history, but you can also learn the wrong things. War were very different before the industrial age. Europe had the 100 Years War, the Thirty Years War, and other conflicts that took decades. Wars were just a series of battles. The life of people hardly changed, unless they were in or near a battle. In the industrial age, wars are very different. They involve the productive capacity of nations. WW1 did not end because of conditions on the battlefield. It ended because Germany lost the ability to support their troops in the field. (PS - that is why many Germans were angry how that war ended. They didn't understand that Germany could NOT fight anymore.). The sanctions is having a devastating effect on Russia. No way can Russia continue fighting forever. In a year, or two, Russia will no longer have the capacity to fight. It won't take decades, or even many years for Russia ceases to have the ability to fight. Meanwhile, Ukraine will be constantly supplied. The west does have some procurement issues. Those are being dealt with. Ukraine's supply may be less than it wants sometimes. But, it will be able to fight. Since this war is existential for Ukraine -- Ukraine has no choice but to fight, whether months or years. Ukraine will outlast Russia, however long. That is the big reason Russia will lose.
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  17. Whew. I am so glad I am not a Russian arms salesman.
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  18. Pants AND slippers??? Oh the tragedy. Oh the horror. How can you cope?? If you ever want to wear pants without slippers again, you better surrender to Putin. 😛😛
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  19. I thought the cozy relationship with Saudi Arabia started right after WW2 with the Bush and Truman and ARAMCO.
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  20. Peter should come live in Chicago or New York where immigrants from all over the world come. In my high school in Chicago over 40 languages were spoken. Ukrainian speakers in Ukrainian village. Polish speakers in Polonia neighborhood. Indians & Pakistanis along Devon Ave. Korean speakers in Korea town. Vietnamese speakers over on Argyle street. Nigerian, Ethiopian, and Ghanaian speakers in Rogers Park. Arabic speakers all over. All the Spanish dialects. Because of immigration, the US has native speakers of most languages around the world. What is more --- these immigrants love the United States more than we do --- they know how bad other governments can be.
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  21. Peter - How lucky is the United States?? I think it is immensely lucky. We all know about our luck in geography, and in our past leaders. But, also, we should consider our luck in having idiots as rivals or enemies. Most people have thought we lived in a tri-polar world, with Russia, China, and US being the three powers of that world. How lucky is the US to have both Russia and China destroying themselves with self inflicted actions that will destroy both countries??? Russia is disemboweling itself in Ukraine. It will take decades for Russia to regain its military power --- if it is allowed that much time. China is destroying its economy with its COVID lockdowns, and its imploding real estate debt bubble. How lucky is that??
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  22. It will be amusing to see the Trump clown show play at geopolitics.
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  23. I want to see the jungle deserts of India, and the famous Camel Gorillas that live in them.
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  24.  @TheVeritas2100  Try over 200.
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  25.  @artombogdanovich5962  My initial statements are verified by many history books. The wars I mentioned actually occurred. My comments about wars in the industrial age also come from history books. Read why Germany surrendered in WW1. Look at how WW2 was supplied. As violent as it was, it was NOT a long war - 6 years - when compared to pre-industrial wars. As for my expectations of the how things will play out, I have to admit, that does come from thinking. I cannot help if you don't like my thoughts.
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  26.  @artombogdanovich5962  OK. The sanctions are working quite well. Russian money from energy exports is way down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ys9UAHYuHaA&ab_channel=DWNews Ukraine as 1/3 the population of Russia, and it is all dedicated to fighting Russia. Russia has to have troops along the Chinese border, in the Pacific Fleet, and in the Arctic fleet. Moreover, Russian doctrine and tactics are very wasteful of Russian lives. Bakhmut is a sucker's game for Russia. Russia keeps attacking, and keeps losing men. Bakhmut itself is worthless militarily. But, Putin has decided its important - so he keeps putting more of his men to their deaths. I hope that helps.
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  27.  @artombogdanovich5962  FYI - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaNDtm138G0&ab_channel=CNN
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  28. Disagree. The problem with "learning" from history is that it could blind you to alternatives. For instance, the geographic security issues Peter says about Russia, also exist for Germany. And, for the past 2000 years, it was invaded and fought over hundreds of times. Is that the case now?? NO ! ! ! Germany & Europe have found a way to work together and live together. Now, Germany does not have to worry about France invading, or Poland invading, or Sweden invading, or vice-versa. Now they are all tied together with interlocking trade and treaties. Today's military technology reduces or even eliminates geographic barriers and the supposed security they once provided. BTW - Europe was offering Russia the opportunity to partake in that security. The EU and US was welcoming Russia into the economic structure. They were expecting Russia to participate. That is why they were reducing their military spending, building the Nord-stream pipeline, and helping Russia develop its resources. It was all going so swimmingly -- until -- Russia invaded Crimea. Now Russia has made itself a pariah - as if it had leprosy or the Black Death. It is unwelcome in any economic forum.
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  29. Talk about water crisis -- what about the ever depleting Ogallala Aquifer of the high plains??
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  30. Sorry, Peter, you are wrong. The world CANNOT move to regional trade and abandon global maritime trade. Why??? Simple, too many modern devices need materials and sub-assemblies from around the world in their supply chains. So, the question becomes -- can supply chains become regionalized?? Probably -- in time. Rare Earth minerals will have to be produced in South America, Africa, and Asia to make that work. Fertilizers will have to be made regionally as well. Unfortunately, food production probably cannot be. US, Canada, Ukraine, Australia, and Russia will still be the big food producers (especially when the war ends.) Food trade will not change that much. Plus, the cost of such change will be high, and global corporations will force politicians to protect their interests. Remember -- the very FIRST foreign war the US got into (The War of the Barbary Pirates) was done to protect business interests. Peter, you call yourself a globalist. You need to re-read post-WW2 history. Why did Bretton- Woods happen? Why was the IMF and the World Court created?? Even, why did the US boycott Cuba and make itself addicted to HFC sugar? World banking and corporate interests are the answers. All those increased the influence of global corporations and finance in the US. Also, since stocks in "American" companies are owned by people around the world "American" companies are not really American anymore. They exist to satisfy global interests, NOT American interests. Finally -- American politicians do exactly what their corporate donors tell them to do, with few exceptions.
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  31. Seems China's manufacturing is collapsing very fast. Now manufacturing plants are being built in many countries to help in the exit from China. I wonder, though, if the China collapse is so fast that other nations will not be able to keep up during this transition period?? If so, then I would expect some temporary price spikes on some products.
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  32.  @zacksmith5963  You think China's manufacturing is doing OK? Really? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iRCACd-Ex4&t=12s&ab_channel=laowhy86
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  33.  @quartermaster1976  That is not what I see.
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  34.  @AnthonyJMendoza-f7i  What collapse are you talking about? You mean a collapse within Mexico? Why? And, where?
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  35.  @barba928  I cannot speak for the rest of Mexico. From people I know and trust, I have heard bad things about areas where the cartels dominate. Oaxaca is poor, and not on the drug trade routes. It is much less affected be them. The people here are friendly, warm, and gracious. They have a good sense of humor. Easy to meet and chat with, and I am using Google translate a lot.
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  36.  @AnthonyJMendoza-f7i  That may very well be. But, Oaxaca is not a big city. Although the capital of the State of Oaxaca, it is not even in the top 50 of Mexico cities in population. Also, since I only recently moved here, I cannot compare it to what it may have been in the past.
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  37.  @AnthonyJMendoza-f7i  I am sure of that. Haven't been there yet. I have heard a lot about it. It seems that for Mexico -- it is like New York, Los Angeles, Washington DC and more all rolled into one. It has something like 1/4 or 1/3 of the population of Mexico. That is crazy.
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  38.  @tragicallyhoney  You should visit Oaxaca. You might enjoy it.
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  39. Bit by bit?? Do you mean salami slicing??? 🤣🤣👌
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  40. Biden did a masterful job dealing with China. AUKUS, the Chips Act, Taiwanese woman as our trade representative (that was a cute move, IMO) 5 new bases in Philippines, raising tariffs, new hypersonic weapons, and so much more.
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  41. BTW, Peter, are you going to go into the world of political commentator? That would be a switch. A little out of your wheelhouse, I think. Your mind works like mine (a few differences, though). I bet we come to similar conclusions. Your observation that Trump supporters are supremely loyal -- Now, that is what I would like you to analyze ---- WHERE does loyalty to Trump come from? And, why is it so stubborn?? As loyal as they are, I suspect, that once that loyalty cracks, it will evaporate. (might be wishful thinking, I admit.)
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  42. US has two major conflicts right now. Bobert vs MTG, and Trump vs DeSantis. Can the US survive both?? Doubtful.
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  43. More important than the ships & weapons of the navies are the bases & allies. China is NOT facing the United States alone. The United States brings forward bases, a huge logistics ability, and (most important) ALLIES. AUKUS brings Australia & Japan. Our alliance with PH, means they would likely be involved in any conflict. Our tacit alliance with Taiwan is important. Let's not forget about Korea. China will fight alone if they start a war. China will lose.
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  44. Can people get off the hypersonic bandwagon now?? Hypersonics have been so overhyped. If it can be seen, it can be destroyed. Stealth is the much better way to go, IMO. No see'um, no hit'um.
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  45. Crazies and idiots vote for Trump. Peter is niether.
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  46. Peter, China's parts have stopped communicating with each other for awhile. Remember the Doklam plateau and Galwan valley attacks?? Well, they torpedoed trade relations with India. I doubt the military checked or coordinated with the diplomats or those in charge of the Chinese economy. China suffers from factionalism. If one faction is pro-Xi, and another anti-Xi, you can bet they will do what they can to hurt each other. China is slowly going out of control, it seems.
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  47.  @July41776DedicatedtoTheProposi  What you say is true, but it is off point. We were discussing the relationship between US & Saudi Arabia, and when became one of mutuality.
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  48. Lithium isn't good?? Yeah??? Well, marijuana has oregano in it, heroin is laced with fentanyl, cocaine has rat poison , etc. Nothing is as good as it was. It is the curse of the modern world.
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  49. After the redistribution of manufacturing out of China, I think the world will be much better off. Manufacturing will be distributed to many countries -- India, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and other countries in Africa and South America. I think some manufacturing will even return to advanced countries like Australia, US, EU countries, UK, and Canada. The world's supply chains will be more robust and resilient. There won't be a single point of failure, nor one country that can threaten it. I am happy this is happening.
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  50.  @josefgatti9328  True. I don't think criticism was meant.
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  51. Sadly, you might be right. However, as more info comes out, I think (hope) that even the MAGAs will dump Trump.
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  52. You assume that Russia hangs together, and the China won't just take Siberia. Could Russia stop China from taking Siberia, east of Lake Baikal?? I don't think so.
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  53. I always agree with Zeihan's data. He has good data. I sometimes disagree with his predictions, though. Not this time. I think he is 100% right on this.
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  54. Peter, you have asserted that Biden's administration is the most protectionist in a century. Can you possibly explain or illustrate that??? I don't see it. You undoubtedly see things that don't get reported well. Things that I don't or can't see. Please explain, so I can understand ----
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  55. China is not changing its claims to the SCS. So, no change in China's relationship with the world. Same old, same old.
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  56. China IS India's enemy, that has been proven. The United States has NEVER hurt India -- on purpose. Granted, US has had a very clumsy foreign policy regarding India. Some of our actions have hurt, or deeply insulted India, that is true. HOWEVER, that was never done with the goal and purpose to be anti-India. US & India have MUCH more in common, than we have differences. That should enable India & US to work together to ensure a stable Indo-Pacific where India & US interests can both thrive. US has helped Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to become stable wealthy countries. Why would India oppose the US helping India do the same??
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  57. Basically, you are saying Arabia is F**ked. I have no admiration for Erdogan, MBS, or Iran's rulers regarding their foreign policies. Each are short-sided. Erdogan & MBS are quixotic and unreliable. No lasting alliances or partnerships will happen with them.
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  58. Seems to me that the French, sometimes, do things out of pride and pique, and not out of clear rationally derived policy goals and strategy. Macron's speech in China is one of those actions done out of French pride and pique. Macron's speech was not well thought out, nor its implications thought through. Politically speaking, he was an idiot, IMHO.
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  59. EVs are wonderful ----- Except for one teeny weeny problem --- The lithium batteries can catch fire anytime. Several car ferries in Europe have burnt and sunk because of them. Until that battery problem is solved --- I would not get one. BTW - I design and install solar energy systems. Overall, I love the tech and what it does. IMO, we are not quite there with the correct battery tech, yet. Better battery tech is being researched.
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