Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "How climate change benefits Russia" video.
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Some good points...BUT...
1. Oil & gas are of NO importance. In 20 years, the world will have a renewable energy infrastructure, or be well on the way. Oil & gas will be obsolete. Also, oil and gas are everywhere. ALL continental shelves have reserves (laid down during Global Anoxic Events in the Mesozoic).
2. Russia still has shown no interest or ability to partake in the global economic community (unlike China). This will hold Russia back for a long time.
3. Resources??? That is 19th century thinking. Wealth comes from value adding, finance, and intellectual property. Look at how wealthy Holland, Switzerland, and Israel are. Few resources and almost no land. Yet they do very well.
4. St. Petersburg will be flooded.
5. China, US, and Europe are going to benefit greatly in financing, enabling, and implementing the move to renewable energy. Russia will be shut out of that.
6. Russia COULD benefit from a huge influx of climate refugees --- IF they were welcoming and geared to do that. But, Russia is nativistic, looking down on those not slavic or even Rus. Russia has no means to encourage or even allow immigrants to start businesses.
Immigrant founded and owned businesses is one of the great sources of wealth for the United States.
7. Canada is the North American equivalent of Russia's Siberia. It will get more temperate, and become more livable. Americans will move there. Agriculture will increase there. When looking at North America as a whole, we are not as bad off as you might think. Florida and Gulf Coast will be flooded. But, the US has the flexibility to deal with the huge internal movements of people.
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Besides renewable energy, the rising seas will have PROFOUND impact.
1. River deltas like the Nile, Mekong, Ganges, Mississippi, Po, Rhine, Danube, and many others will be submerged. Huge amounts of producing agricultural land will be lost. How will those countries cope with that?
2. Huge populations will be displaced - Shanghai region (50-200 million people) Bangladesh (100 million), the US coasts (50 million), Vietnam (25 million), and so many others.
3. On the other hand, oil will no longer be important, and energy will be available in all countries. Energy will no longer be the cudgel that wealthy countries hold over poor countries without oil.
4. A huge problem will be the collapse of fisheries in the oceans due to ocean warming and over fishing. With the loss of that food source - how will dependent populations cope?
5. Agricultural production will likely decline. How much is the question. It is possible that it crashed, causing mass starvation the world over. Will a future world be able to support 9 billion people? Or, will several billions have to die, so the rest can live??? If so, which ones will be forced to die?
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Actually, I see more opportunity for the US & Europe to benefit from helping countries around the world cope with climate change. When has Russia helped others?? Russia has no tradition of foreign aid and assistance, except as a dominating power with its satellites.
When people from South East Asia, China, Africa, and South America emigrate??? Where will they go? Russia? That's laughable.
In the short run, refugees may be problem, causing strains and dislocations. BUT, in the long run, they create a bond between the nations.
The US has bonds with Germany, Ireland, Philippines, Greece, Italy, and so many other countries because of the immigrants from those countries whose descendants now live here.
Will Russia ever have that?? Will they welcome or allow that?? Never.
Global Warming COULD be a game changer for Russia -- but it won't be.
Putin is too wedded to reviving the Tsarist past. Russia is too myopic, and inflexible.
If an opportunity, it will be an opportunity lost.
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