Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "China’s navy is tipping the balance" video.

  1. The US has been sending carriers and other ships through the Taiwan Strait constantly and continually to exercise and maintain our freedom of navigation through it.
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  2.  @LeavingGoose046  Also, China has more ships, BUT, few are blue ocean ships, able to perform a mission more that 500 miles from China.
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  3. It is more complicated than that. If tonnage was the what mattered, then Italy would have ruled the Mediterranean in WW2 with its larger navy. Naval tradition and comfort of dealing with naval combat China lacks. The US has always been a naval oriented country, with a strong naval tradition.
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  4. The nations of the region are ALL building up their navies, and stockpiling their missiles. Taiwan probably has over 1,000 HF 2, 2e, and 3 missiles. Japan has threatened war if China attacks Taiwan. Meanwhile, China's economy will collapse.
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  5. Shervan, the flaw in your analysis is that you assume no response by other nations. Do you really think the other nations of the region will allow themselves to become vassals of China without resistance??? Do you really think that?? Already, Japan, India, US, and Australia are strengthening the Quad -- soon, I expect a NATO-like alliance to be created (Indo-Pacific Alliance?). China will have to face and intimidate an alliance. China's navy will NOT be as big as US/Japan/India/Australia/UK/Vietnam/Philippines/Singapore, and probably a few more. China's attempt to dictate to others with no allies, and no one liking them is doomed to failure. PLUS -- the demographic collapse, and the coming economic collapse of China will prevent China from achieving that goal. In this case, Shervan, I think you fell into the "extrapolation trap". Many analysts who try to predict the future fall into it. Extrapolations of recent trends into the future using extrapolations have the inherent flaw of assuming the future won't change course. It always does. Already, the conditions that enabled China to build and expand its navy is coming to an end. China just cancelled a large carrier, for instance.
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  6. I don't think China's navy is tipping any balance. If anything, China's navy is losing relative. US, Japan, Australia, Philippines and India are growing closer together. When conflict comes, it seems highly unlikely that China will have only one opponent of its choosing. If China takes on Taiwan, thinking that Taiwan will fight alone, I think China will be surprised. Japan cannot afford to let Taiwan fall to China. So, Japan will definitely help. Japan has satellites that can help Taiwan target Chinese assets. The US and Japan will keep the East Coast of Taiwan open, so arms and other aid can be supplied. If Taiwan runs out of missiles, US will resupply her.
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  7. China CANNOT create a blue water navy--- BECAUSE -- it does not have a global string of bases. It is getting a few in the Indian Ocean....but that is it. No bases in the Atlantic. No bases in the Central Pacific. The US can build a base whenever it needs one --- Palau just invited US to build a base there -- and the US said yes. WHO will invite China's Navy??
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  8. Let's get this straight -- China is NOT becoming a world naval power. It takes more than ships to do that. What made England a world naval power was it global base structure, not merely its ships. Same with America today. Sure we have a lot of great ships. But, without Subic Bay, Diego Garcia, Okinawa, Diego Garcia, Naples, ROK, and so many others scattered around the world, the US Navy would have a hard time projecting power. To have bases around the world requires one very essential asset, which China does not have ---- FRIENDS. We are welcome in places like UK, Italy, Japan, Philippines, Singapore, and so many others because we have friends. The US does its best to keep its friends. We treat them with respect. We help them after a hurricane or some other disaster. Xi, though, has been following a different path -- making as many enemies as he can. How many friends does China have?? I bet you won't need more than one hand to count them all. No friends -- no global naval power.
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  9. OK, lets forget the politics, and focus purely on the military. Can China even hope to prevail? Well, to do so, it must be able to function economically WHILE being at war. The first that will happen, IMO, is the cessation of maritime imports & exports to/from China. Shipping companies won't risk their ships, and ship insurance will probably be too expensive or non-existent. PLUS, US and other countries will implement a naval blockade. India will likely stop all China trade through the Malacca Strait. US will stop it across the Pacific. Question: How long will China's economy and people be able to withstand a blockade?? Germany lost WW1 because of its blockade. China, I think, is more dependent on overseas trade than WW1 Germany was. Will China last 6 months? 12 months? longer?
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  10. In the early part of WW2, when US supplied UK, but was not a participant, Germany sank a destroyer or two. We almost got into that war early than the bombing of Pearl It is almost a certainty, that China will attack and sink a US warship, and the US may be forced into the conflict, whether we like it or not.
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  11. Oh, one more thing --- China's navy is EASILY countered in the first island chain by land based missiles. Taiwan, for instance, can sink every Chinese naval ship with their THOUSANDS of HF-2, HF-2E, and HF-3 missiles. Ships in the littoral are VERY vulnerable.
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  12. Also, will China be able to expand its navy as its population ages.
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