Youtube comments of (@craigkdillon).
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The Belt & Road Initiative of China is doomed to fail.
1. China's construction processes are incompetent. Construction is done by habit. Designers, managers and workers will work the same way from project to project.
It is impossible for them to do one project poorly to save money, and then do the next one at high quality. The workers will do the same work.
So, tofu dreg projects are to be expected.
2. Debt slavery or debt colonialism won't work. No matter what the contracts say, nations can simply not pay.
Payment of contracts between countries can only be guaranteed under the threat of military force. That is how the French, English, Dutch, and others maintained and enforced their colonial rule.
Colonial rule has ended. China has no ability to threaten military enforcement of its B&RI contracts. First, China has no expeditionary forces. Secondly, the western powers would oppose any Chinese effort to military enforcement of its contracts.
Lastly, any country that was a colony knows exactly what they need to do to oppose any such action.
China has really screwed up.
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The Marines started off as marines -- that is soldiers on board ships. However they developed into America's expeditionary force.
As such, they became a self contained complete army, who could everything the US Army could do, but on a smaller, possibly more targeted foe.
They have infantry, of course. But, they also had Harriers, now F-35Bs. And, IFVs, and tanks, and artillery, and hospitals, and logistics, etc etc.
Instead of being all sad and weepy about leaving the Abrams behind -----
You should be asking questions -
1. Why? Is there a basic change to the Marines war doctrine??
2. What is replacing the armored strike force in the Marines? The tanks may go away, but their function and purpose remain. How will Marines do that without the Abrams??
3. What experiences caused this decision.
4. Who made the decision?? How long has it been considered?? How fixed or permanent is it??
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Take time to define "migrant" worker in China. It is very different from how it is used in US.
In US, a migrant worker is a foreign worker, often Mexican, that comes in annually to work, like pick crops.
In China, a migrant worker is a Chinese citizen from another part of the country. So, if one moves from Hunan to Beijing to find work, that person becomes an internal migrant.
They don't have access to the education, health, and other benefits if they stayed home.
This structure of internal migrants in China is a major factor holding the country back, IMO.
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That is how China's industry developed. Western companies would develop things, and then go to China for cheap production. So, China focused on manufacturing costs and efficiencies.
And, that is OK.
If China had not gone rogue, then we could have continued with that.
US companies would do chip research and design, then China would produce them in quantity and cheap. Now, that link is broken.
US companies will develop, but now production will be domestic or to trusted countries -- like Mexico, Philippines, Columbia (maybe), India, or Vietnam. Oops, I forgot, Taiwan, too.
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I was born in Chicago.
I learned early how addresses were numbered.
At 7 years old, I could be dropped blindfolded anywhere in the city, and I could find my way home.
I was getting on buses, going downtown, and going all over the north side by myself.
if a movie I wanted to see was playing somewhere far away, I just took the buses, transferring as needed.
My mom had no idea i did that.
One time, I went downtown to see a movie.
I spent my carfare money on popcorn, prepared to walk home.
After the movie, I started walking home.
It was a hot summer day, and I realized I didn't really want to walk it.
So, I walked up to a traffic cop.
Putting on my most innocent lost child face, I told the cop, I was lost.
He called a cop car over. The Cop asked me where I lived.
I gave him the address.
I could have given him directions, but i figured that they would figure I wasn't really lost.
They drove me home, knocked on my door, and my mom answered.
I said "Hi, Mom", and they said, "Is this your kid?"
I walked in. My mom never asked about that.
I loved growing up in Chicago in the 50's.
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This video showed an amazing lack of understanding in what makes a navy powerful.
1. Allies - the US has allies, China has none. Recently, China has been pissing everyone off. A nascent alliance is developing between US, India, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Why?? Because China claims sovereignty, not merely EEZ designation, over the SCS, and China has attacked and harassed ships from these nations.
2. Bases - the US has many bases for its army, air force, and navy in the Western Pacific. China has no bases anywhere near the United States. Any conflict would be in Chinese waters. That means that Chinese trade would be difficult, if not impossible. No trade means a collapsed economy.
The US just got usage of Subic Bay again in the Philippines. Duterte is no longer China's stooge.
3. Geography - United States two oceans make it impossible for China to block our ports, or to significantly impact our trade. Meanwhile, the US can easily stop all maritime trade to/from China. Can China's export economy cope with that?? I doubt it.
4. Tradition and history - the United States has a strong naval history. China has almost none. What does that mean?? Well, in WW2, Italy had a much bigger navy than Britain in the Mediterranean. On paper, it looked like Italy would dominate Britain, and probably force it out of that sea. That did not happen. A daring raid on Taranto, and a few other actions, and Italy's navy was bottled up for the war. Tradition and history are important.
5. Technology - the US has the technology. Even when China does come up with a good weapon, the US can quickly develop and deploy the counter measure. Any advantage China may have will always be shortlived.
6 Aging population - China's aging population means that China will have great difficulty in keeping its economy expanding. Already China's population of working age citizens is declining. That is not good for China.
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One may see Christianity as a continuation of Greek religion. Many aspects of the myth of Jesus Christ are easily identified as borrowed or derived from Greek Myths. Consider....
1. Jesus was born of god coupling with human -- so too, was Hercules.
2. Jesus had his trials in the wilderness -- Hercules had his 12 trials.
3. Jesus is adorned with the Halo of Helios.
4. Dionysus died, descended into Hell, and was reborn. (also, the Egyptian God Osiris, died and was reborn on the third day, like Christ. Also, Egypt had a trinity!)
5. The cult of Mithras had a Communion like ritual.
6. "Miracles" like raising the dead were fairly common in the Ancient world.
7. The Christian cult of Mary, also has precedents in ancient Middle East religions. Namely the Egyptian cult of Isis, is the most well known.But, there were also Greek goddesses of Hera, Athena, Hestia which could have been used as a model. Though, no Greek Goddess is very similar to Mary. Hera and Hestia are closest, I think.
The Jesus myth was created during a time of huge Hellenic influence in Israel. For me, it is easy to see how the two melded to create Jesus.
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China's natural customers that are rich or nearby.
Rich countries like the US, UK, Japan, Canada, and Sweden.
And nearby countries like Japan, Taiwan, India, Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
CCP has threatened each one of those countries with war,
or at least used vaguely worded threatening rhetoric which could mean war.
Every one of those countries is trying to reduce trade and economic dependence with China.
China's factories are closing, and workers will suffer.
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This story shows a profound change in the progress of the war.
For a long time, the stories of people fleeing, running to refuge.
Their difficulties and tragedies were told.
This is the first story of a returning Ukrainian.
She has lost everything, but her goats, and her life.
So, despite everything, her story is one of triumph and hope.
Soon, there will be many more stories of return.
Through it all, this war was good for Ukraine.
First, Ukrainians now know who they are, and what they are capable of.
Second, Ukraine now knows it has friends around the world.
That it is loved, admired, and appreciated.
I don't think Ukrainians felt that from the world before the war.
They may not have had it, because people around the world knew very little about Ukraine.
Now, millions around the world know what Ukraine has experienced,
and how valiant they have been.
People will talk about the heroism of Ukraine for generations to come.
Books will be written, songs sung, and movies made about this moment.
Thank you, Ukraine, for reminding us how valuable democracy and freedom truly are.
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For a long time now, there have been assertions and discussions about tanks, fighters, aircraft carriers becoming obsolete.
They are to done in by missiles, drones, smart artillery, or some other new thing.
But, then they are saved by other new things - reactive armor, anti-missile missiles, energy weapons, etc.
Trouble is, at some point any of these things may happen.
RC drone vessels, swarming bots, energy weapons, or something else may make any or all of these devices obsolete.
It happened to the horse, the battleship, the ship-of-the-line, the sword, the shield, the bayonet, so it will likely happen to the mainstays of our current military ...... someday.
Just not today.
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Personally, I am very much against the development of a neo-aristocracy.
Rich people are treated differently by the courts.
Hence, they are a privileged class, similar to the old aristocracies which actually had a separate set of laws governing them.
Therefore, I want HIGH inheritance taxes on the super wealthy.
By super wealthy, I mean those who have over $100 Million
Now, farmers, ranchers, restaurant owners, and other small business owners should be able to pass the family business to their children.
But, those with HUGE amounts of money should not be able to create a neo-aristocracy.
That is very dangerous to democracy, IMO.
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I have read the projections for Nigeria - about 750,000,000 by 2100.
I doubt that will ever happen.
IMO, Nigeria will hit a resource ceiling, which will prevent that many people.
Nigeria won't be rich enough to buy the food necessary.
And it won't be able to feed itself.
I remember in the 1970's, Iran was forecast to have huge population, well over 100M, but that is not happening.
Iran became middle class, and now has a problem of future decline.
I think this will happen to Nigeria. It can be a low cost manufacturer for companies leaving China.
Being on the Atlantic, it has shorter routes to Europe, NA, and SA.
I bet Nigeria never even reaches 400,000,000.
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I expect the militarization to increase. I expect the thuggish unconstitutional police behavior to increase.
I expect police usage of armored cars to increase, and their usage of lethal force to get worse.
When will it stop??
Not until their is political reform in this country to remove the systemic protections that police get from our politicians.
In Chicago, after Det. Burge was convicted of torturing confessions from innocent people -- there was no reform of the police department.
The officers, administrators, and politicians who knew of the torturing and benefitted from the convictions were never investigated or removed. The Chicago Police Department is as violent, corrupt, and power-mad as they ever were.
I suspect this is going on in Minneapolis and other cities.
The continued killing of innocent civilians doing nothing is a national plague and disgrace.
Why are no political "leaders" saying or doing anything??
Silence is assent. They must agree and approve the killings, or they would do something.
Since they do nothing, that means they are OK with killing us.
Trump is OK with killing Americans. We know that. He has told us so.
But, so are Democrat politicians who sit by and do nothing.
The ONLY Democrat to say anything have been the Mayor of Minneapolis, and Biden.
And, Biden will do nothing -- because that is what he does -- NOTHING.
Things are going to get a lot worse, and lot bloodier before it gets better.
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You must also take into account the changing nature of who is considered "white" or "acceptable". In the 1800's, Irish were discriminated against very heavily. After them, the Italians were discriminated against.
In the South, Catholics and Jews were lynched, too.
Intolerance goes back to the colonial era.
In 1600's Massachusetts, the Puritans made being Catholic or Quaker a capital offense, and executed them.
America has a long history of intolerance.
However, we also have a long history of acceptance and tolerance, too.
Neither wholly define America.
In fact, it is the mixing of these two contradictions that make America what it is.
We have always been more at war with ourselves than with other countries.
But, through it all, we progress. We become more tolerant, and more inclusive.
It is this progress, this willingness to change, that is our best attribute.
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When giving life expectancy before the modern era, you have to deduct the ages 0-5, where mortality was VERY high.
Women had birth 4 to 6 children to have 2 reach adulthood.
THEREFORE, to give a realistic idea of how long people lived, and how long they would expect to live, you have to show how long they would live as adults.
For instance, a Roman legionnaire was committed to 20 years, after which, they were expected to be farmers.
That took vitality.
So, it seems to me that once a person survives childhood, as an adult they would expect to live to their 50's.
The 30 to 35 year life expectancy comes from applying all the childhood deaths to the statistics.
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Interesting argument justifying Hitler's orders to "stand fast", "no retreat". With no oil, a maneuver war cannot be fought, so retreating, consolidating, and attacking again had become infeasible. So, retreating was useless. However, sacrificing your men is also useless. It is really a "rock and a hard place" type of situation for Hitler and Germany. Neither action is good.
But, with this context, Hitler's decision seems, at least, not mad, and even arguably the better decision.
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Wow. Xi is turning the clock back.
But, there is no going back.
The China of 2022, is not the China of 1972.
It is an older China.
It is a country of families with only one child.
It is a country without brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles.
But, it is also a country that has gotten used to the good life --
cars, travel, nice homes, nice clothes.
Many millions of Chinese have traveled to other nations.
The people are not as unaware of the world, as they were in 1972.
China is more urbanized.
So, Xi cannot make China into a mirror of its 1972 self.
I think Xi is about to unleash social and political forces of a strength
that he won't understand, and cannot control.
Seems to me, that we are witnessing the decline and fall of the CCP.
How long it will take, and exactly how it will fall,
we can only wait and see.
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IMO, South Korea should build up its diplomatic ties.
South Korea should join the Quad.
South Korea should create common diplomatic regional policies with India, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, etc.
Ultimately, a NATO-like defensive alliance for the Indo-Pacific should be created .
China and North Korea have to know that to attack one of them, will be an attack on all of them.
By jointly facing China and North Korea this way, is the best way to avoid a war.
China and North Korea are most likely to attack if they feel they have a local advantage.
If SK is alone, then it is most at risk.
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Sophisticated microchips are a significant export for Taiwan.
AND, they cannot be blockaded.
WHY?? simple, they are high value, and can be shipped by air.
You don't need a tanker or container ship to transport microchips.
Some are so needed by our arms industry, that we would send over
US Air Force C-17's and C-5's to bring them here.
Taiwan is a strategic supplier to the US.
If you look at history, any time a nation attacked a strategic supplier to a country,
they went to war with that country.
IF China attacks the US, they are attacking a strategic supplier to the US,
THEREFORE, they are attacking the US,
and THEREFORE, China will be at war with the US.
I hope that is simple and clear enough.
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Some good points...BUT...
1. Oil & gas are of NO importance. In 20 years, the world will have a renewable energy infrastructure, or be well on the way. Oil & gas will be obsolete. Also, oil and gas are everywhere. ALL continental shelves have reserves (laid down during Global Anoxic Events in the Mesozoic).
2. Russia still has shown no interest or ability to partake in the global economic community (unlike China). This will hold Russia back for a long time.
3. Resources??? That is 19th century thinking. Wealth comes from value adding, finance, and intellectual property. Look at how wealthy Holland, Switzerland, and Israel are. Few resources and almost no land. Yet they do very well.
4. St. Petersburg will be flooded.
5. China, US, and Europe are going to benefit greatly in financing, enabling, and implementing the move to renewable energy. Russia will be shut out of that.
6. Russia COULD benefit from a huge influx of climate refugees --- IF they were welcoming and geared to do that. But, Russia is nativistic, looking down on those not slavic or even Rus. Russia has no means to encourage or even allow immigrants to start businesses.
Immigrant founded and owned businesses is one of the great sources of wealth for the United States.
7. Canada is the North American equivalent of Russia's Siberia. It will get more temperate, and become more livable. Americans will move there. Agriculture will increase there. When looking at North America as a whole, we are not as bad off as you might think. Florida and Gulf Coast will be flooded. But, the US has the flexibility to deal with the huge internal movements of people.
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The CCP has under-estimated the West and the US.
The US is NOT playing defense.
We are playing offense by OUR rules, our strategy, and our assets.
We defined the structure of the Cold War, and we won it by
our consistent strategy over 40 years.
Our rhetoric is conciliatory, and non-threatening.
Our actions are VERY different.
First we appoint a Taiwanese woman as our trade representative to China.
That was done as an insult to China, meant to ridicule Xi.
Next, we expanded our base structure in the area ---
Palau, Australia, and 4 bases in PH.
Defense cooperation with Vietnam.
MANY military deals with Taiwan.
AUKUS.
Nuclear sub tech to Australia.
Stealth tech to Japan.
Openly supporting Taiwan, in case of invasion.
Showing that what we did to Russia in the Ukraine War
would be worse for China if they invade Taiwan.
Taking away our financial investments.
Taking away our export market.
Encouraging other nations to follow suit.
This is how we play offense.
In a few years, China will be impoverished.
Too poor to keep up with us militarily.
The US will win this Second Cold War,
without firing a shot.
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Now, besides regulatory uncertainty, businesses have to cope with operational uncertainty.
I am referring to power blackouts caused by the CCP punishing(?) Australia, and boycotting their coal,
which in turn, is causing power blackouts in parts of China.
Companies want their factories to hum production.
No drama. No interruptions.
Most thought these were one time events, and things will be normal right away.
That is not happening.
Now production interruptions have become normal.
That is intolerable. Businesses will do everything to escape that situation.
I PREDICT ---- there will be MANY more businesses leaving China,
and going to ANYWHERE else.
They want normalcy. India, Vietnam, Philippines, Columbia, Chile, South Africa, Ethiopia, etc. etc.
ANYPLACE but China.
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A de-facto, if not formal, alliance between the US and India is already in place. Modi's firm but mature handling of China's bullying is gaining great respect here in the US. I see the US strenghening and deepening economic, diplomatic, and military ties with India. The many Indians that have migrated to the US fit very well into our middle-class milieu. They are educated, and fit well into a mulit-cultural, multi-ethnic, multi-religious, but secular society.
Unlike Muslims, who are seen as a source of threat, where some see their religion opposed to our government and society, Hindus do not. (Neither do Buddhists, Jains, Sikhs, Bahais, or any other religion.)
In the coming decades, I see the US/India alliance as being major force for peace and trade in Asia.
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I lived in England for a few years. When I went, I expected to find US 2.0, or our 51st state. I saw their movies, read their books. I knew the English -- or so I thought.
After living there, I came to see them as being very different. Lovable, quirky, but different.
I was very relieve to get back to the US after 3 years.
I cannot begin to understand what you experienced in China. Through you and Serpentza, I have gotten a tiny glimpse of how alien China is from America. I have difficulty in seeing how you stayed their for so many years.
Like you, I came back with a higher appreciation of what we have over other places, even like Britain.
I enjoy people from other countries and cultures. But, you are on a whole other level from me. Both your toleration and enjoyment of other peoples amazes me.
One more thing -- you are very eloquent. You use words very efficiently and precisely. There is no ambiguity to your prose. That is rare today.
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Hurricanes were better than Spits because they were harder to shoot down. A German pilot had to hit the engine, the pilot, or the gas tank to bring down a Hurricane, a much smaller target than the Spit. Bullets would tear the metal skin of the Spit to shreds, downing it, or putting it out of action.
The fabric skin of the Hurricane made the Hurricane plane itself almost impervious to bullets - they just punched little holes that had no real effect. So, the Hurricane was more survivable, less fragile, and therefore, more dangerous to German pilots.
After all, Hurricanes did destroy more German planes in the Battle of Britain than the vaunted Spitfire.
When I hear the Hurricanes getting disrespected, it makes me so mad, I just spit fire. (pun intended, :-)
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@chaosXP3RT But, when we are competent, we are amazingly competent.
1. The Marshall Plan elevated Europe out of poverty and disaster, after WW2.
2. America reorganized Japan, gave them a Constitution, enabled their industry with our market, and Japan is now a key ally.
3. NATO is a critical organization in defining the modern world.
4. The UN is critical to world peace, and to peaceful maritime trade the world over. UNCLOS has eliminated many maritime territorial disputes.
5. We make the best guns, too.
We may be incompetent from time to time, and Americans are the own best critics, but we take umbrage to others criticizing us..
Thank you.
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China is expanding its navy. Yep. But, will it gain power??
Well, Japan and Korea are building carriers.
Philippines, Vietnam, India, and Australia are expanding their navies.
US is increasing its presence, going back to Subic Bay, and building a new base in Palau.
In the end, China will have no more relative power than it had when it started its military buildup.
In fact, it will have lost ground.
US, India, Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and Korea have all become closer militarily, and
in opposing China's SCS grab.
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AND, one more thing.
China's economy would be destroyed.
Taiwan could blockade the ports of China. Even if it didn't, Shanghai and others would be in a war zone. Maritime trade will be stopped during the duration of the conflict. If the conquest takes a long time, which I think it would, then China's wonderful export economy comes crashing down.
Invading Taiwan is not as simple as this video makes it.
Loss of maritime trade. Sinking of its navy. Rocket destruction of its port facilities. IF China attacks Taiwan's cities, Taiwan could rain down rocket hell on China's cities, too.
And, then, do you really think the US would stay on the sidelines?? US would restock Taiwan's ammo - more missiles, and even planes to replace those lost or used. Plus, the US might join the party -- destroy those shiny new island bases in the SCS, for instance.
Plus, the US would establish a global boycott of China. Even when the maritime trade opens up, China's trade could be finished.
China has made it plain -- it is at odds with the whole world.
China will lose.
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To me, the most logical way for China to secure its borders would be to act friendly and peaceful towards its neighbors.
China's bellicose threatening acts and words has resulted in its neighbors spending a lot more on their militaries.
Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and India have ALL increased purchases of planes, ships, missiles, and tanks.
China's RELATIVE military power has decreased as a result.
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IMO, the Republicans have hurt themselves in the 2024 election cycle.
First, Santos's district will definitely go Democrat this time.
If they had removed Santos, they would have stood a better chance of retaining that seat.
By allowing Santos to stay, the Republican Party has, in effect,
approved and validated Santos's behavior.
Second, this can now be used across the country as proof that
the GOP takes care of its own, no matter how slimy or crooked they are. ;
Third, the GOP has now proven itself as having no moral compass, no standards of behavior.
The GOP has shown they will accept disgusting behavior as long as they get theirs.
This will add to the coming blue wave.
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Cenk, you are an IDIOT.
It is actions, like yours, that will make people complacent -- and then stay home.
Hillary LOST because people stayed home.
People thought, "She is going to win, I don't need to vote, I will go shopping instead."
So, she LOST.
If everyone thinks like you, Cenk, then Trump could win again, the very same way.
Please, don't use words like - "the election is over', "Trump cannot win", "it is a certainty now, Biden will win", etc etc.
I know you want to show how smart you are....but, please don't do this.
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@charlessanders First, at the time it happened, circa 515 BC, Rome's greatness was not established.
Don't forget, Rome believed themselves to be the descendants of Troy, through Aeneas, Paris's youngest brother.
Rome idolized Greece.
When Rome did conquer Greece, they treated very special.
At the time, Solon was famous, I believe. Going to him for advice would not have been odd or strange for Rome.
Remember, they had just been ruled for a 100 years by Etruscans.
They needed a new start, and they had to get it right.
I suggest you read Livi.
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China was on such a roll. Trade surpluses. Infrastructure expansion. Becoming the rising dominant economic power in the world.
For 35 years, China could do no wrong. It looked like it would steamroll the world.
Then Xi took over. He was tired of all this winning.
So, he embarked on a campaign to make China into the Great Loser.
First, he started threatening everyone.
Second, he started border clashes and suggested wars with India.
Third, he laid claim to full sovereignty over the SCS, threatening the trade of Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and the US.
Fourth, he started wolf warrior and hostage diplomacy.
He has turned friends like Philippines into enemies.
He has turned once economic allies, like Japan and US, into enemies.
Fifth, Xi has shocked and stunned the world with his brutal takeover of Hong Kong, and the genocide of the Uyghurs.
Sixth, Xi has completed his process of making enemies by claiming Vladivostok and other Russian territory. This pushes Russia into being an enemy. Or, at the very least, no longer a friend (is there a difference?)
China now is friendless - surrounded by countries that do not wish it well.
What other ruler has ever done that??
Under Xi, China is now The Great Loser.
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Turkey is weaker, not stronger, after it decided to be an a$$hole.
Before, it had friends, allies, and no disputes with its neighbors.
Now, it has conflict with Greece, that may become a war.
Turkey has turned on America, so US is less likely to help Turkey out in any way.
Sure, its economy has grown some. But, not enough where it could dictate to others.
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No, the War of 1812 was a war provoked by the British, taking Americans off of ships to serve in their navy, and even taking our ships.
The US invasion of Canada was America's first action against the British.
There was also a naval conflict on the Great Lakes, which was won by Commodore Perry,
who said "Don't Give Up The Ship", and Captain Lawrence, who said, "We have met the enemy, and he is ours." Both, famous quotes.
This was the war when the great Shawnee war chief Tecumseh got many Indians to rise up.
The Pottawattamie Indians around Fort Dearborn (Chicago) attacked the fort, and after agreeing to a truce, and letting the people go back east, attacked and massacred them all about where Soldier Field is today.
The war ended in 1815.
BUT, before the treaty got over the ocean, General Jackson soundly defeated the British at the Battle of New Orleans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50_iRIcxsz0&ab_channel=DianeWest
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Do you remember the goal of Thanos in the Avengers, to kill 1/2 of everything, and thus free up resources for a bright new world?????
Well, I think that was inspired by the Black Plague. True, it was horrific, and killed 1/2 of people.
This new shortage of people changed Europe.
1.) Labor became more valuable. Serfs were now sought by other Lords. The Serf system broke down, and people became free to move.
2.) Thus, towns grew. Also, pay grew, since labor was more valuable.
Europe became free because of the Black Death. Ended Serfdom, creating the situation enabling the Renaissance.
So, Thanos wasn't such a bad guy after all, was he??
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Wait a minute, you are being too mean to Texas.
The Republican lawmakers make laws on things they consider to be important.
Things that impact on what it means to be Texan.
Upcoming laws in Texas ----
1. Chess pieces must be black or white. No brown, green, amber, or any other progressive colors.
2. Stores will no longer sell chicken breasts (gasp!). Too provocative, especially for children.
3. Rainbows will be an illegal weather phenomenon.
Any weathermen reporting one will be shipped off to a Gulag outside of Amarillo.
(Actually, the gulag is Amarillo.).
4. Gun control will finally come to Texas.
Water pistols will be banned for children.
However, pistols shooting Nitric Acid will still be allowed and encouraged.
The Republican party focuses on those issues essential to maintaining the spirit of Texas.
Republican party is also against science and technology.
We don't trust electricity, nor the scientists and engineers who create and control it.
Electricity is a dark force, and scientists and engineers are the evil wizards who commune with the Dark Lord.
The blackouts Texas had, were sent from heaven to punish us for using electricity.
IF everyone votes Republican, and sacrifices their first born child, we can get GOD back on our side.
VOTE REPUBLICAN.
PS. If you didn't sense the satire and sarcasm in this, they you are in serious trouble.
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Every country Muslims live, there is violence associated with them. Not so with Hindus, or Buddhists, or Christians. There may be violence, but when Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists fight, it is about poverty or discrimination. Muslims fight for perceived insults, or just because non-believers "should" be killed. Where is there Islamic based violence? Let's see ----
Libya, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Philippines, Nigeria, Chad, Mali, Yemen, France, Spain, Italy, UK, Norway, Holland, Belgium, Germany, Austria, Central African Republic, India, ....whew, did I get them all??
OK, now list for me all the nations where Buddhists have caused problems?? or Hindus?? or Sikhs??
Right, you can't. Hindus are in Europe and US in large numbers. Yet, not one problem have I ever heard of. NOT ONE.
About the only thing I can say about Muslims is that they seem perfectly happy killing each other, as they are in killing non-Muslims. I guess that's something.
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Besides renewable energy, the rising seas will have PROFOUND impact.
1. River deltas like the Nile, Mekong, Ganges, Mississippi, Po, Rhine, Danube, and many others will be submerged. Huge amounts of producing agricultural land will be lost. How will those countries cope with that?
2. Huge populations will be displaced - Shanghai region (50-200 million people) Bangladesh (100 million), the US coasts (50 million), Vietnam (25 million), and so many others.
3. On the other hand, oil will no longer be important, and energy will be available in all countries. Energy will no longer be the cudgel that wealthy countries hold over poor countries without oil.
4. A huge problem will be the collapse of fisheries in the oceans due to ocean warming and over fishing. With the loss of that food source - how will dependent populations cope?
5. Agricultural production will likely decline. How much is the question. It is possible that it crashed, causing mass starvation the world over. Will a future world be able to support 9 billion people? Or, will several billions have to die, so the rest can live??? If so, which ones will be forced to die?
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Before air conditioning, the South was considered very hot, and the Southwest almost unlivable.
Without A/C, Texas, Florida, Arizona, and LA would never had seen the population growth that occurred after WW2 up to today.
The drying up of the Colorado will have a profound affect on that region.
Meanwhile, sea level rise will destroy Florida.
Sea level rise is slow, but inexorable. It cannot be fought. It cannot be delayed.
It cannot be negotiated with. And, most importantly, it cannot be "engineered" away.
All coastal cities will be affected.
Deltas and coastal crop land will be submerged.
But, most awful of all, the wet bulb temperatures will rise to the point that
our bodies cannot cope with.
A high wet bulb temperature, for even a few days, will huge numbers of people, if they cannot
get into A/C controlled shelter.
Places like India, Nigeria, and others may start getting killer heat waves in the the near future.
What then?
Can hundreds of millions migrate??
Can surviving nations take them in?
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Oh Oh, here it comes -- a new scare.
In the past we got scared over "bomber gap", then "missile gap", then "tank gap",
then "fighter gap", etc.
And each was used to develop new cutting edge weapons.
The "bomber gap" gave us the B-58 Hustler, B-70, the B-1, and finally the B-2.
We are so far ahead in bombers, it's ridiculous.
The "missile gap" gave us the Minuteman and the Poseidon missiles.
The "tank gap" gave us the M1.
We are so far ahead in those areas, it is ridiculous.
NOW, comes the AI gap. Well, I don't believe it.
China does not have the capacity to design and implement on scale the technology to effect battles.
China cannot even do a 5th Gen fighter yet.
Besides, one can shield one's brain from external control
by wearing a colander on your head.
See the eternal wisdom of the Divine Spaghetti Monster.
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For Detroit, I think the best thing to do is to help the remaining 500,000 people go to better cities, and then, let it go back to nature.
Let the bears, raccoons, skunks, birds, and other animals come back. Let the forest reclaim the land.
A park can be made of it then, and it will be of some use, unlike its current condition
where it isn't good for crap.
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@TheCluelessLucent The worst mistake was the Vietnam War.
The US started it because Ho Chi Minh called himself Communist. But, he did that because he lived in Paris when he was young, and he meant communist in that ideal form of Marx.
Ho Chi Minh was a Vietnamese patriot, who fought the French and then the Japanese.
Then, after WW2, the US gave Indo-China back to France.
Well, the Vietnamese have been fighting China for 2,000 years. They would NEVER become pals with China.
But, US don't know or read much history. We didn't know that. So, the US started the War to prevent the "dominos" from falling and Communism taking over all of Asia, and then the world. Stupid.
Now look at Vietnam. Anti-China (of course). And, becoming an American ally.
Such a stupid war.
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If you take that speech back to 1900, he would be talking about the Irish, the Italians, and the Polish. Which would also mean the Catholics.
Now, go back to 1900, and what do you see???? Hmmm???
You see prejudice, with police targeting the Irish, Italians, and the Polish.
Well, now its the Latinos.
Oh, yes, black people have been always targets. Unlike the Irish, Italians, and Polish, they have not been allowed to rise up the socio-economic ladder.
My point is that Bloomberg's tactics and attitudes are nothing new. They have been done in the past.
They were wrong then. They are wrong now.
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It may not be the end of the China/India border tension, BUT, I do feel it is near the end. China picked this fight, and it has come off looking bad. India did not compromise, and that left China with the choice of backing down or war - both unattractive. I cannot see China wanting to do that again. India's military strength is growing, making and future conflict more painful for China, and the outcome in greater doubt.
Moreover, both are naval powers now. Any border conflict can now easily expand to a naval conflict, which would almost assuredly become a full generalized war. Trade would be affected, companies bankrupt, and jobs lost. Both economies would be severely hurt.
So, I think this may be the last border war threat from China. Or, can they really be truly stupid???
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IMO, you frame China's real estate crisis all WRONG.
You frame it using market language - collapse, boom, debt issues, etc.
You frame it as being analogous to Japan's real estate crash.
Wrong.
The real problem is that China uses real estate speculation to fund its governments,
especially local and provincial governments.
Those governments are now NOT paying many of their workers.
Transit workers, teachers, inspectors, and even police are not getting paid or having pay reduced.
To make up for that local governments are now issuing fines, raising water rates and electricity rates.
Essentially, local governments could cease to function, and even go completely bankrupt.
The entire CCP structure could be in danger of collapsing.
Japan's system was never in danger of collapsing altogether.
They merely suffered financially.
China is suffering systemic strains that will prevent solution.
The rampant corruption will prevent the CCP of having an effective response.
China IS collapsing. The CCP will NOT survive the decade.
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I am very pleased with the creation of the AUKUS alliance.
I had hoped for a larger, NATO like, alliance including India, Japan, and some ASEAN nations.
India, though, has a tradition of having no alliances, and is philosophically opposed to them.
Japan has problems with any offensive military operations, so it may be constrained from such an alliance.
Moreover, the AUKUS nations have long history of working together, with a common language, and common culture.
I think the AUKUA alliance will be stable and very long lasting.
Containment of China will take commitment, endurance, and trust.
The AUKUS nations trust each other deeply.
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What makes you think that US and Japan would keep the conflict in this theater of war?? It would expand.
First, China's navy would be targeted no matter where they are. South China Sea, Pacific, Indian Ocean -- any Chinese boat anywhere would be sunk.
Second, China's maritime trade would cease under an American blockade.
Third, China' air, naval, and army bases on the mainland would suffer from a rain of Tomahawk missiles. The ports of Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tianjin and many others would be attacked, with the aim of destroying their container handling infrastructure.
As for Russia, its navies would be sunk. Russia's navies in the Black Sea, Mediterranean, Baltic Sea, and Arctic Ocean would all be sunk, unless they are kept in port. Russian assets around Vladivostok would be attacked.
I don't think they are that stupid to start something like this.
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I am surprised by your sloppy and inaccurate representation of what is going on there.
You use the word "claims" very loosely, inferring that that claims of all the nations are similar.
In fact, you said that the other nations "mirror" China's claims.
They do not mirror China's claims. Let me explain.
Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei
make ONLY the EEZ claims as defined and allowed by the UN.
China makes the UNIQUE claim of SOVEREIGNTY.
"Sovereignty" means that China wants to treat the SCS as if it was an internal waterway,
a river or estuary.
If allowed, China would control all sea and air traffic.
China could legally blockade the countries of the region, without it being an act of war.
China challenges ships, but also challenges all planes flying over the SCS, forcing them to identify themselves and get China's "permission" to fly over.
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I disagree that time is on Russia's side.
Each day, Russia loses hundreds, even thousands, of men.
Each day, Russia loses tanks, APCs, and other equipment.
Each day, sanctions cut deeper into Russian economy and resources.
Meanwhile, each day, Ukraine gets more ammo, equipment, and training.
Each day, the Ukraine Army gets stronger.
Therefore, time is on Ukraine's side.
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Wrong.
The claims of the non-China countries are ALL given to them by the UN's Law of the Sea.
They are ALL claims of Exclusive Economic Zone. There is a process in the UN to resolve competing EEZ claims.
An EEZ does NOT give sovereignty of that part of the ocean to a country.
An EEZ is still international waters, and any ship can sail in it. They just cannot fish or extract anything.
China, on the other hand, claims SOVEREIGNTY. That is, China claims the SCS as if it was internal waters . China says the own it completely. Their laws apply. No ship can enter OR leave without China's permission. If China wants to, it can stop a nation, like Japan, from using it at all.
China could blockade a country, if it wants, when it wants.
Such control of the SCS would reduce some of the nations in the region to being vassal states to China.
This is what it is all about. Not fish, or oil.
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@golagiswatchingyou2966 Disagree.
Putin could encourage business and manufacturing.
The fact that the exports you mentioned are mostly natural resources, proves the point.
After the Industrial Revolution, wealth creation moved from raw materials, to value added manufactured goods.
The richest countries, like Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, and others don't have much in resources.
But, Putin has not let automobile manufacturing happen, even though Russia has all the raw materials to do it.
So, Russia exports cheap raw materials, instead of expensive finished goods.
From a geo-economic POV, Putin is an idiot.
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I am disappointed in you, Caspian Report.
IMO, resources is the cover, not the reason for China's claims to the SCS.
By controlling the SCS, China can effectively blockade Taiwan, Japan, and SK, thus reducing them to dependent states. China forces ships to stop in the SCS, thus reinforcing China's claims of sovereignty.
Morover, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia would also be diminished to dependent states with full China sovereignty over the SCS.
The issue is geo-political, not resources.
Surprised you didn't see that. You are usually so good at geopolitics.
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Nice analysis. Totally wrong and misguided. But, very nice and well done.
OK, why do I say it is "wrong and misguided"?
1. Analyses like these have an unstated assumption that the world today is like the world of yesterday.
If you were a paleolithic analyst, circa 10000 BC, you could not have forecast the future, because agriculture was a game changer.
2. There are so many game changers, that today's world CANNOT go through troubles the same way. Even defining what is trouble, is likely to be very different.
For instance, nuclear weapons change the whole dynamic of how nations use war. A direct war between nuclear powers will never be total war (we hope). Since WW2, the US has been in proxy wars.
The creation of the nation state put Europe on the road to world domination -- which it did until WW2. Imperial governments became outclassed, and fell. India, Ottoman Empire, China, Russia, and Iran -- all fell or were transformed.
More importantly though, technology has restructured our societies, and even impact our culture.
Telephone, transportation, video (in all its forms), internet, international [corporations, banks, finance, NGO's, trade, etc] have all profoundly changed humanity and how we relate to each other.
3. Extrapolations of China's development of economy and military power are ALL wrong.
China is at the apex of its power, and it was built on cooperation from the West, and China's real estate & debt bubbles.
China's real estate & debt bubbles are both popping now. China's economy is crashing.
Soon, China will be dealing with huge unemployment, and the crash of personal wealth that many Chinese families had.
The jobs that fed the internal migrants of China are ending. What will the 300,000,000 internal migrants do?? Will they stay loyal to the CCP?
4. Africa has been a real surprise. The borders imposed by the legacy of colonialization has not resulted in African wars (which is what I expected in the 70's). Instead, African countries have worked together, and there is even talk of unification. Unification would be a great way to get better borders, and to deal with the tribal divisions within the countries. At least in some cases.
5. Climate Change - your understanding of climate change is very wrong. There is NO direct connection between current behavior and current climate.
Climate change of today is the result of things we did for last decades.
If we change our behavior now, it won't have effect now --- it will have effect in the future.
For instance, CO2 is now at about 415ppm, which is higher than it was in the Pliocene, 3.5mya, when it was 390ppm, and oceans were 75 ft deeper. So, we could end ALL CO2 emissions right now, and oceans would still rise at least 75 ft, eventually.
Humans and nature operate on very different time scales.
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Glad you mentioned the Somersett case. Alfred & Ruth Blumrosen, in their book "Slave Nation", contend that the Somersett case was the prime cause for the American Revolution. The plantation owners saw that slavery would likely end if they stayed under English law. So, they wanted independence.
This explained the Boston-Virginia alliance in the Revolutionary War. Boston was heart of the trade - not New York or Philadelphia.
This also explained the extreme non-compromising stance of the Continental Congress, and their refusal of King George's overtures for compromise and settling the issue. Remember, these "idealists" sailed the world making all kinds of deals. Deal-making is what they did. Yet, they could not come to some kind of compromise with King George, even though he begging for relief.
(See the book Rebels & Redcoats.)
If this is correct, then our Revolutionary War was a war to MAINTAIN slavery, more than it was to give us Freedom.
For me, I have come to accept this view, at least to the extent that it was a significant factor, though not the only factor. However, it finally explained to me why the southern colonies would be concerned with a disturbance in Boston that killed a few people.
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The only time the country suffered similar level of pain was in 1932 and the Great Depression. What happened then??
In the 1932 election, FDR and Progressivism took hold of the country.
More than that, though - Progressivism and Democrats took hold across the country.
Progressivism became so dominant, that both parties accepted the Progressive view of government.
Both parties supported - education, national parks, social security, unemployment compensation, unions & the NLRB, work place safety, conservation & the environment, EPA, FEMA, and more.
The Civil Rights Act was passed on a bi-partisan basis.
It was with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton when BOTH parties turned away from Progressivism.
Neither party is Progressive at the moment -- though there are some Progressive Democrats.
BUT, Progressive Democrats do not dominate the party. Progressives don't set the agendas, and the Democrat party leaders in the House and Senate are NOT Progressives.
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I do not what the fired people at Twitter did.
I suspect many of them were account managers who dealt with advertisers, getting them to buy ads on Twitter.
If so, then the first thing that happens when you fire an account manager is that the AM calls their clients, telling them they were fired, and then they slam the company that fired them.
So, all these advertisers get inside info on why Twitter is a lousy company.
Some advertisers will stop just because you fired their friend, not because of well analyzed marketing reasons.
But, then there is that. Elon Musk is changing Twitter. Great. If I was an advertiser who had nothing against Twitter, I would likely pause my advertising until I understand how Twitter is changing.
I think both of these reasons are causing the flight of the advertisers.
Now, of course, herd mentality will kick in, and more advertisers will leave because they see all these other advertisers leave, so they join herd.
I guarantee you, this will end up as an MBA course case study.
It is a fascinating study of corporate hubris, and human behavior.
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Has India culture, attitudes, beliefs, and customs affected America?? You betcha.
1. In 1756, at the Albany Indian Congress, Benjamin Franklin first proposed a confederation of the colonies, citing the 200 year existence of the Iroquois Confederacy as his inspiration.
2. In Indian tribes, all members of the tribes were equal. Egalitarianism is NOT European. It IS American. We got it from the Indians.
3. The Eternal Flame burns at Arlington National Cemetery. The Iroquois Confederacy had an eternal flame that burned in the Onondaga Longhouse. It burned for over 200 years, and was to burn as long as the Iroquois Confederacy maintained their unity and existence.
In 1777 (or 1778), the chiefs of the Mohawk, Oneida, Seneca, Ottawa, and Onondaga met and debated how to deal with the war between the colonies and Great Britain. They had ties to both.
They had to choose. All great decisions were made unanimously, as had been done for 200 years.
They argued and disagreed for hours, all through the day, and into the night.
Finally, after many hours, an old chief, who had not said one word, but who listened and watched,
got up and slowly walked to the Eternal Flame of the Iroquois.
As he did, the longhouse fell silent. All eyes were now on him.
He walked into the flame, and slowly stamped with his bare feet, the eternal flame of the Iroquois out.
The flame was dead. The Iroquois were no more.
Slowly, each chief silently got up, and without a word, left the longhouse.
The tribes remained, but the Iroquois Confederacy was no more.
Each tribe would choose who to ally with in the war, or choose neutrality.
Each choice would be their own.
In my mind, the idea of Federation, Unity, and individual freedom passed from the Iroquois
to the coming United States of America. The idea of the Eternal Flame we took from the Iroquois, too.
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She seems to be the result of what I call "The Trump Effect".
The Trump Effect is a counter-intuitive pro-Progressive effect that Trump has had on American politics.
Consider, in 2016, Hillary, Pelosi, and the Democratic establishment was against universal healthcare in any form. Sanders' view was marginalized, and portrayed as extreme & oddball.
Well, along comes Trump, and during his 2016 campaign, he says he will get rid of Obamacare and replace it with the best healthcare anyone can want.
LOL, now it was an empty promise. BUT, it was Trump, a Republican, giving lip service to what seemed like universal healthcare.
In 2018, universal healthcare become a central Democratic plank. Nothing Hillary or Pelosi could do could stop it. Now, the only question is what flavor of universal healthcare will the Democratic party support.
Another Trump Effect has been the articulation and clarification of the new Progressivism. It goes way beyond Sanders and AOC. New Progressivism will redefine the Democratic party, and American politics.
As an old FDR type democrat, this gladdens my heart.
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"Corruption" is a judgement, based on a specific moral code.
In China, for thousands of years. court officials, administrators, and military commanders would buy their positions.
That was natural, normal, and expected. It was not considered "corrupt". It was normal for a citizen to bring a gift to an official, to get them to help them. To us, in the west, that would be considered a bribe, or be even considered unnecessary -- the official should just "do their job".
Xi Jinpeng seems to want to govern in the fashion of an emperor.
IMO, imperial style rule will not work in the modern world
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@golagiswatchingyou2966 Agreed. In terms of staying in power, Putin is a genius, a veritable savant.
Obviously, you have done some reading.
Consider this however ----
You mention access to sea lanes and trade routes. That really is 19th century thinking. Or, at least, pre-Bretton Woods.
The gift of the post WW2 world, is that free access to maritime trade is given to all. Everyone can pass through the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Malacca Strait. And, everyone can pass through the Bosporus.
Russia has free access to the world. No one blockades it, or prevents its trade.
The fact that Russia has not taken advantage of that to build its industry and trade, is, I believe, a relic of the Tsars.
I recommend two books -- Russia Under the Old Regime, and Russia Under the New Regime.
From that, I learned that Stalinism was merely an extension of Tsarism.
Putin is doing the same. Putin is even recreating the old Tsarist/Orthodox Church ruling alliance. Did you notice how Pussy Riot were convicted of blasphemy??? Blasphemy?? That is a church crime, not a criminal crime.
Not understanding that the world is vastly different from the 19th century is the stupidity of Putin (and Xi, too, BTW).
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We don't have words to describe what is happening in China.
By changing the rules,, China has not merely brought on a long awaited correction.
China has destroyed the ability for markets and companies to function.
The real estate "collapse" is not a mere downturn.
In the west, when we use the term "collapse", or "crash", we mean a downturn, but we expect a comeback, a turnaround.
In China, the real estate crash, IMO, is a destruction of the market.
Those companies not only will cease to exist, but no other companies will replace them.
The wealth of Chinese citizens will be permanently lost.
China will cease being a country of increasing wealth.
I see China's wealth as being in steep decline.
I think the China we will see in 5 years, will look very different from what we saw 5 years ago.
It has already changed. This downward spiral will accelerate, and will be profound.
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Your analysis is obsolete.
It is like judging ww2 tanks, without talking about radio.
It is known that the tank that sees, targets, and shoots first is almost always the winner.
US tanks are now becoming networked. So, targeting can be done by a drone, an A-10, or another tank, and the tank then fires first, kills first.
Tanks DO NOT operate alone. So, to judge them in a one to one comparison is misleading, and basically stupid.
US tanks still operate in platoons of 5 tanks minimum, I think.
So, you have to also look at tank doctrine and tactics to come to any kind of reasonable conclusion as to which would do better in a battle.
I really get tired of these silly analyses that are not even good enough for teenagers.
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I knew in March, when Russia failed to take Kiev, that Ukraine was going to win this war.
The analysis is quite simple.
Russia started a war of conquest. To win, Russia needs to conquer.
For Ukraine, all Ukraine has to do is to not lose, to keep its army fighting.
This is similar to the American situation fighting the British in our Revolutionary War.
Washington just had to keep the war going, until the British got tired and quit.
Yorktown did not end that war, really. The war ended when Parliament, after hearing about Yorktown defeat, decided to stop the war.
Here, the same thing. As long as Ukraine fights, the war continues.
At some point, as in Afghanistan, Russia will have had enough, and stop.
Ukraine CANNOT lose, as long as it keeps fighting.
Stopping Russia from taking Kiev means that Russia cannot conquer.
So, it must lose.
It is quite logical.
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First, understand that Evangelicals are NOT Christian. They are about as far away from Christ as anyone can get.
Christ was about Love, Forgiveness, tolerance, understanding, and peace.
Evangelicals are intolerant, vengeful, hateful, and promote violence.
Evangelicals support white supremacy and the KKK.
Evangelicals support denying healthcare to the poor.
Evangelicals support giving the rich more power, and more money.
Evangelicals are against democracy, since they support voter suppression.
...I know I missed a few.
I'm tired. ZZzzzz
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Now his assertion that the SCS is more important I think is correct.
Lei, however, does not understand China's goals for the SCS.
1. China's interest in the SCS has little to do with resources. They can get those resources without all this trouble.
2. It is not about fish. That's ridiculous.
3. China could do all that by asserting EEZ rights. BUT -- it does not do that.
China claims FULL SOVEREIGNTY over the SCS.
WHY??? What does that give them?
If China gets sovereignty, then its laws rule that water. Ships could not enter or transit without China's permission and regulation. China could insist on searching every ship.
Or require registrations. The SCS would become like any bay or river in China.
4. With sovereignty over the SCS, China could control the maritime trade of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Brunei.
These nations would be reduced to vassal states to China.
THAT is what China wants.
Reducing all the countries of the region to being vassals of China is its goal.
Reducing all nearby states to vassals is what Imperial China did for 2000 years.
The CCP may be Communist, but it is more Chinese.
It hasn't changed from its days of empire.
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No its not.
Many may come from China, but that can change quickly.
If you go back to 1970, the Great Lakes states in the US was the world's manufacturing center. This is where watches, irons, TVs, radios, cars, clothes, shoes, drugs, and so much else was produced.
Then it all moved to China, and the rust belt was formed. Our cities were hollowed out by their missing factories.
It will happen to China.
It is happening, as Samsung, Toshiba, Apple, and so many others move out.
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BTW - I subscribe to the idea that early people in North America moved south along the seashores of Alaska, BC, Oregon and California. I think this would have been both easier, and more obvious. The ready availability of fish, seals, and birds to eat would have made this route very easy, IMO.
Then they could have used rivers like the Columbia River, Fraser River, and the Sacramento River to travel inland.
Both routes were likely used, of course. But, I think the coastal route was first.
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In combat, there is the forever technological race between offense and defense.
Ships have become more vulnerable. Yet, surface ships is still the best way to project sustainable power.
True, ships may be lost to ASM's and SSM's, but, the navy still has the ability to respond. The sources of the missiles will be known, and those sources will be destroyed - whether other ships or land bases.
The sinking of a ship, even a carrier, is not the end of the story.
Pearl Harbor was not the end of the war, but the beginning.
For instance, suppose China attacked and sunk an American carrier in the South China Sea.
That would be an act of war, and treated as such.
I believe we would respond in force --- destroying their artificial islands in the SCS, sinking their Navy by submarine and air assault, and even attacking their bases on the mainland in Shanghai, and Pearl River area. We would blockade all maritime trade in and out of China.
Chinese flagged ships would be sunk. Ships of other nations would be turned away, or sunk.
China's economy would come to a screeching halt.
So, you see, sure China could sink one of our carriers -- but that would only be the beginning....
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@森田和義-k6u I don't think that the response of a country will have anything to do with being liberal, conservative, or any political leaning.
If people in a country feel threatened, they will respond.
Problem is, under fear, people will tend to not respond rationally, or in proportion to the threat.
That is how a war can start very easily.
Look at India, for the longest time, it ignored building its military.
Now, with several border attacks by China, and China continuing to threaten India, it is now spending billions to build its military.
Already, India's navy is powerful enough to deny China the usage of the Indian Ocean.
Why? Because China has made India afraid that China is crazy,
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One of the biggest failures by Japan, and a really stupid failure, IMO,
has been Japan's refusal to take responsibility for its bad behavior in WW2,
and apologize to the nations and people they wronged.
Japan should apologize to China.
Japan should apologize to Korea, especially to the Korean comfort women who were abused.
Japan should apologize to UK, US, and Australia for the horrible treatment of their POW's.
If Japan finds the wisdom and humility to do this,
respect and admiration for Japan would soar around the world.
Korea, especially, would find it easier to ally with Japan against China.
But, Japan won't do it.
Those who are too focused on "saving face"
lack the understanding that humility and taking responsibility
builds trust, and goodwill.
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Technically, China is experiencing "collapse", not decline.
"Decline" implies part of a cyclical economici cycle, like a recession or even worse depression.
Both "recession" and "depression" suggest that they will end as an economic cycle works its way through, and comes to an end.
All recessions and depressions are followed by booms and expansion.
China is NOT experiencing that, IMO.
China is going through profound structural change.
Whole industries are being affected, with some disappearing.
Today's China is a shadow of what it was just a few years ago.
In 10 years, China will be unrecognizable from the booming China we knew for 30 years.
40 years ago, poverty was universal in China. It was everywhere. Poverty was normal, and the Chinee people accepted it. It was part of life. It was their life.
B U T --- the Chinese of today don't remember that poverty. All they knew was boom and prosperity. Abject poverty will hit them hard.
They will be angry.
I wonder who they will blame??
Hmm, anyone have an idea/??
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It is time to move to the next step.
Joint naval exercises, and coordinated diplomacy using the QUAD has been great.
Now, though, it is time to create a formal regional alliance, similar to NATO.
NATO was crucial to stabilizing Europe, and guaranteeing peace so those countries could develop
It has worked great for last 70 years.
An Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO) needs to be established.
The senior members should be US, India, Japan, and Australia. Other members would likely be South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, and the other ASEAN nations. A fully recognized Taiwan should also join, once IPTO decides on a joint recognition of Taiwan's independence.
China would object (go crazy), but could do nothing when all the nations in the region make that recognition all at once.
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Another thing I notice, is that when Euros come to the US, they nibble around at the edges, going to coastal towns like Boston, New York, and Miami. They might go to the other coast and visit LA or San Francisco. They rarely get to the hinterland - Chicago, Minneapolis, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Colorado, etc. I think they are afraid of being swallowed by the size of the US.
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When countries spend heavily on weapons wars usually follow.
Britain and Germany spent heavily before WW1.
Would WW1 have happened if both had not done that?
IMO, the US long wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan were both, at least partly, encouraged by our high military spending at the time.
Would the US had spent (wasted) so much men and material if our military was smaller??
Even if not planned, wars seem like a rational solution to international political problems.
Also, when a huge military is just sitting there, using it may seem like an easy solution.
After all, diplomacy is tricky, and you really have to think hard about how and what you say and do.
Unfortunately, wars are messy, and they have a very bad habit of not turning out the way they were intended. Our own Vietnam and Afghanistan wars are proof of that.
So, with China spending heavily on planes, rockets, and ships will they start a war??
Very likely, IMO.
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This video contains some of the common myths about climate change ---
Myth 1. We can limit the temperature rise to 2 C. No we cannot. The temperature will rise to a level determined by the CO2 levels in the atmosphere. The current level of 415 ppm CO2 exceeds the level of 390ppm seen during the Pliocene, 3.5mya, when oceans were 70 ft deeper. CO2 is going up 2.5ppm/yr. We will see 500ppm by 2050. That means we will blow right past 2C increase. We will have temps a lot higher than that.
Myth 2. We can stop it. No we cannot. Nature has taken over. Even if we stopped burning all our oil, coal, and gas, the atmospheric CO2 levels would still increase. The permafrost and the clathrates are increasing global levels of greenhouse gases, independently of what we do.
If we stopped, then the process would be slowed down, but it would not stop.
Myth 3. We can avoid the dire consequences of sea level rise. We cannot. We might be able to delay its rise, somewhat. But, the sea will rise to a level dictated by the CO2 levels in the air. During the Pliocene, 3.5mya, when CO2 was 390ppm (lower than today's 415ppm level) the oceans were 70 ft deeper. Oceans will rise well above that, because CO2 levels will reach 500ppm by 2050.
Myth 4. Sea level rise and heat waves are the worst that can happen. They are not. The worst that can happen is a Global Anoxic Event, where the global conveyor current shuts down, and the ocean becomes anoxic below 25ft deep. When these occurred, they are associated with extinction events. Also, the oil we consume was mostly laid down during Global Anoxic Events during the Mesozoic. That is why oil is found on continental shelves. Oil deposits are universal, and we won't be running out -- EVER.
All the climate change reports I see, like to paint rosy pictures, and to be very positive. They imply we can do something significant by doing things like eating vegetables, or recycling, or turning out the lights. These are silly notions, and they don't communicate that we have to take very DRASTIC actions, if we want to have any hope at all of avoiding the worst consequences.
Each year we delay, means that the worst case scenario, gets a bit worse.
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Without knowing it, you actually pointed out WHY Russia will lose.
Russia's artillery lacks GPS accuracy. They are using their artillery in the same armies did in WW2. Russia targets cities, factories, refineries, residential neighborhoods.
Obviously, unlike Ukraine, Russia CANNOT target command centers, radars, ammo dumps, fuel depots. If they could they would.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's accurate artillery fire cripples Russian forces.
Ukraine is suffering. That happens in war.
Europe suffered in WW2, and recovered.
After this war, Europe and the US will do a lot to help Ukraine recover.
Russia? They will be on their own, and get little help.
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Taiwan does NOT need to maintain air superiority over Taiwan ----
Taiwan merely needs to DENY air superiority to China.
That can be done with missiles & radars --
as long as they can survive.
A big unanswered question is "how sophisticated is Taiwan's ECM (electronic counter measures)?. If its ECM is effective, then many of China's missiles could be deflected away from their targets. If ECM is effective, then China could fire hundreds, or thousands of missiles, and not degrade Taiwan's power that much.
Ultimately, China needs to invade to succeed. Invasion troops & ships would have to get through javelins, TOW's, machine gun fire, artillery, mortars, and other weapons fire that their missiles would NOT have destroyed.
China will suffer local defeats. How will the green troops react to defeats?
Taiwanese will be fighting for their homes, their independence, and their freedom.
What will Chinese troops be fighting for??
I doubt PLA troops will have high morale, despite the Wolf Warrior propaganda.
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I am more optimistic.
Peak Oil Demand is expected to happen by 2025, some think sooner. When global oil demand shrinks, the value of Arctic oil will plummet. In fact, oil+gas should cease to be strategic resources by 2040.
As nations around the world implement renewable energy infrastructures. the need for oil+gas will no longer determine global politics and international relations.
Why does everyone care who rules in the Middle East and what they do there??
Why does no one care about who rules in Central Africa or what they do there??
Yep, you guessed it - one has oil+gas, and the other does not (except for Nigeria, and still no one cares, LOL).
When Arabia's oil is no longer desired, who will protect the Saudi monarchy?
Same about the other oil based nations.
Oil prices will plummet, and will stay down.
So, who will spend extra $$ to extract Arctic oil? Who will buy it??
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Mosquito was the best military plane in ww2, IMO, but it was NOT a fighter, so it is right not to be on this list.
HOWEVER, the P-38 was much better at ground attack than as a fighter, IMO.
Now, Hellcat?? Not on this list?? crazy. If not the winner, it is definitely in the top 3.
For me, top 3 were P-51, Hellcat, then Cutlass. Since they never fought each other, I don't know how to say which was #1.
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If the US was to invade Venezuela (and that is a big IF) it would not do it alone. Done alone, US would be alienated from other SA countries. The US would be seen as invading the continent, not merely Venezuela.
Venezuela is causing headaches in South America. So, it may be able to be done in concert with OAS, and specifically Brazil and Columbia, who are the most affected by refugees.
In a combined military operation, through a coalition with Brazil, Columbia, and other countries that want to partake, it could be done quite easily.
The US invaded at Maracaibo, then Brazil from the south, and Columbia from the west. Then all parties proceed to Caracas, and install a democratic government. Like Japan and Germany after WW2, occupying forces stay for several years until governmental and financial institutions are stabilized.
If Trump wasn't such a jerk and overall idiot, we could have done this by now.
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The massacre at Fort Dearborn is a good case to understand how Indian and European style of warfare differed.
The Indians surrounded Fort Dearborn, on the banks of the Chicago river, near the Michigan Avenue bridge.
The small group of American soldiers their hoped to negotiate for the lives of the residents of Chicago that took refuge in the fort.
The Pottawatomi Indians offered them free passage. They had to leave the fort and go back East.
The soldiers and residents agreed, feeling relieved that they would get to keep their lives.
They left fort, and walked south along the lakefront.
When they got to about a mile and a half, about where Roosevelt St is, or the Field Museum,
the Indians attacked.
They killed everyone -- every man - every woman -- every child - every baby.
No one survived.
In Europe, such a negotiated end to a battle was honored.
Indians did not do that. It was not their culture or tradition.
This made settlers very angry, which resulted in horrific reprisals, often against peaceful tribes that had nothing to do with any massacres.
The mistreatment of the family of the British officer in charge of Indian affairs is understandable.
Not right, but understandable.
BTW. Chief Sauganash, a Pottawatomi local Chief, warned traders Kinzie and Hubbard, saving their lives.
Chief Sauganash is remembered with a neighborhood, bearing his name, and a golf course bearing his white name --Billy Caldwell, on the northwest side of the city. The Pottawatomi and the Illini tribes were moved out of Illinois in 1831.
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In transport, weight is very important.
However, in home use, such as batteries for home solar systems, weight, and size are not critical.
Cost & safety & reliability are most important.
I can see sodium ion batteries taking over that space.
Right now, a 10,000kw battery costs about $10,000.
If that cost can be brought down to $5,000 or less,
demand would take off, IMO.
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Wars can build nations. Through war, a national identity can be birthed.
Our Revolutionary War helped to establish our American Identity.
The Hundred Year's War helped created the French Identity.
Before the Russian invasion of 2014, I think Russians and Ukrainians were fond of each other. They freely mingled, intermarried, and traveled between the countries.
This Russo-Ukraine War has destroyed those feelings of friendship and camaraderie.
If Russia had not targeted civilians/women/children, had not tortured them, raped them, killed them -- then, the wounds of this war could have healed.
The unspeakable acts of the Russian military cannot be forgotten, and are not easily forgiven. When this war ends, the hate will linger.
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Words are important. China's economy should be described accurately.
China's economy is NOT "struggling".
China's economy is COLLAPSING.
There is a difference.
"Struggling" implies that the economy is basically OK, but is having a hard time, which is temporary.
Now, we don't have good words to describe what China is going through because even during the Great Depression, our economy did not collapse or fall apart. FDR came in, did some tweaks, WW2 came along, and our economy was humming again.
Companies operated the same way. Contract law functioned the same. Etc.
China, though, is going through a fundamental reworking of its structure.
How companies are defined, and how they work, is being changed.
The trade relationships with other countries is being redefined.
So, China's economy is COLLAPSING. It will be profoundly different in 2025 from what it was in 2020.
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Disastrous??
For Ukrainians who die, it is very disastrous.
BUT -- for Ukraine as a nation -- it is turning out great.
1. Ukraine's national identity is now firmly established. Before the war,
the question, "what does it mean to be Ukrainian", existed. Now, there is no doubt.
2. Ukraine's position in the world is now established. It now has trading partners, military partners, and Ukraine's commitment to democracy is unquestioned.
3. Ukraine's military is strong, and getting stronger. Before, that was a huge question.
4. Ukraine's leadership is admired around the world. Before, Ukraine's government and leadership seemed unstable and weak.
Now, Zelensky is the most admired world leader today. Zelensky will be known as the Father of Ukraine.
In the future, historians will view this war as the great foundational event for the Ukraine Republic.
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Another problem - China's foreign policy seems to get its inspiration of the attitudes of imperial China, where it viewed China as the center of the world, and ALL other countries were inferior, where laws and regulations apply to others but NOT to China.
China regularly break contracts, agreements, and international law. It has no respect for the laws of other nations, the UN, or the World Court. China's disregard for laws and treaties is creating a wall in its relations with other countries. China is making itself into an "other", apart from the normal "world of nations". For China, everything becomes a "special case".
For that to endure, then China must dominate militarily, as well as economically. I do not think that is possible in the long run.
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To the deniers, are the scientists getting it wrong?? Yes, I do believe they have gotten much wrong, and are still getting it wrong -- but NOT the way you want to believe. In their conservative findings, they have continually UNDER-estimated the effects of climate events. They UNDER-estimated the rate at which CO2 would increase in the atmosphere. They UNDER-estimated the impact of CO2 on global temperatures. They UNDER-estimated the rate at which the Arctic Sea Ice would disappear.
For instance, in 2000, most climate scientists believed that Arctic Sea would not have its first ice free summer day until the year 2100. With the decline seen since then, now climate scientists forecast an ice free Arctic Sea between 2020 and 2040. BTW, this forecast difference makes no difference to the science, just as two weathermen forecasting rain tomorrow or the day after, don't really disagree. It is just a timing issue. In climate science, 20 years is nothing.
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IMO, No.
For if Netherlands apologizes for slavery, then the following should also apologize....
1. Italy - Rome was built on slavery.
2. Arabia - slavery legal until recently
3. Brazil, Argentina, Panama, Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica and most of the Caribbean Islands
4 Spain - used slavery to support their plantation system
5. Turkey - enslaved millions through the years, including tens of thousands of Greeks during their war of independence.
6. Mongolia - the Mongol Empire had a thriving slave trade
7. England - yep, gave us slavery in the colonies that became the US
8. The US
9. India - yep, they had slaves, too
10. The Ashanti tribe of Ghana, and the Hausa of Nigeria -- they supplied the Europeans with slave victims they captured from other tribes. Yep - black Africans enslaved other black Africans.
11. Sweden & Norway - the Vikings enslaved many and sold them to the Byzantine Empire
12. Algerians and Libyans -- they enslaved many in the white slave trade over the centuries. The raiding Corsairs forced coastal towns to relocate to the top of rocky hill tops. Look at the old towns of Italy.
13. etc etc etc.
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The huge amazing growth of China over the past 40 years gave a hint of China's potential.
That potential is now being killed.
First, China's growth was enabled by the huge young population of China at the time.
Now, that population is older. China has an old population now, not a young population. Even if Xi had not decided to take China in another direction, China was going to have a hard time coping.
Second, China's growth was fueled by the eager participation of the United States, UK, EU, and the world community of nations. Now, that willingness to trade and work with China no longer exists.
Third, China has now made it very clear that it is an enemy of democracies, all its neighbors, and of world peace in general. The US is now making it clear that we do not want to help our enemy to build the weapons to attack us. So, the US is bringing chip manufacturing home. Chinese companies are being required to follow our rules.
Fourth, the transformation of the Chinese system has moved so far along, that even if Xi was replaced today with a pro-west, pro-business, leader, the loss of trust and faith in China by the west has gone too far. We will not open our economies, our wallets, and our hearts to China like we did for 40 years.
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I went on a journey.
Originally, I was against gay marriage for one simple reason ---
marriage was defined as an union of a man and a woman. Simple.
Gay people could live together, no problem, I thought.
I then learned that there were issues --- two gay people living together,
did not have the same rights as a married couple.
Inheritance laws, contracts, insurance, probate, and other issues of
modern life made their lives difficult.
Most importantly, it just wasn't fair.
As an American, I believe in fairness.
A whole bunch of laws could be passed to correct the problem,
OR, more easily, just make gay marriage legal.
So, now I support legal gay marriage, and equal rights for everyone,
not just LGBTQ, but also immigrants, Irish, Polish, Italians, Native Americans, etc.
No matter who you are, you should be both protected and enabled by our laws.
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The Quad is fine, as far as it goes.
IMO, more is needed.
Post WW2, Western Europe was devastated. The Berlin crisis was Russia's attempt to push into a destabilized Europe, and push the US out.
NATO was the response. NATO established a bulwark, against which Russia could not assail.
The region was stabilized, and the countries were able to grow into the thriving powerful countries they are today.
An Indo-Pacific Alliance needs to be created to stand as a bulwark against China,
to give security to the region, and enable the countries there to develop their economies and societies.
Such an alliance, I expect, would be anchored by the Quad of India, US, Japan, and Australia.
Added to it would be Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and some others.
The members would cooperate militarily, of coarse.
It would be only natural that they cooperate economically.
I think and hope this will happen.
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Iran & China were enemies of the US long before the sanctions.
The US tried to normalize relations with Iran. But, the Imams did want that. They preferred violence.
Well, if someone threatens you, that makes them your enemy. Since Iran wants us as an enemy, we must oblige.
China? Well, we invited them into the world trade markets. We opened our market to China.
Now, China threatens everyone. China has threatened Sweden even. China has threatened ---Japan, Philippines, US, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Indonesia. Australia, Canada, Ecuador, Argentina, UK, Germany, and I am sure there are others I missed.
So, if China & Iran want to get together to oppose the US and the world, it won't work.
They are idiots, only hurting themselves.
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Laowhy, why are you painting such a rosy picture of China??
Sure, you say you are showing how its failing, but you only scratch the surface of its failure.
You didn't mention its tofu dreg infrastructure, with tunnels, bridges, and roads falling down or caving in.
You didn't mention the transit, education, and government workers not getting paid for months, going on years.
You didn't mention the empty malls, and shuttered restaurants.
You didn't mention the exploding unemployment.
You didn't mention the containers building up at China's ports as exports crash.
You didn't mention banks freezing people's bank accounts and stealing their money.
You didn't mention the flight of the rich leaving China, taking what money they can.
You didn't mention the huge increase in illegal Chinese immigrants being caught at our border.
Like I said, you painted an optimistic up-beat assessment, IMO.
It is way way worse, Laowhy.
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I wish analysts would stop talking about the world and China as if the events in both are tightly linked.
They ARE linked, of course, -- there is trade.
HOWEVER -- the link is not tight.
The problems China is experiencing has to do with the collapse of its internal structure --
1. The collapse of the real estate market -- which is bigger than just the market. Real estate speculation is central to how local and provincial governments fund themselves.
2. Bankruptcies of local and provincial governments. This is a HUGE structural issue.
3. The exodus of foreign manufacturing - Samsung, Kia, Apple, Toyota, FoxConn, and so many others is a profound and permanent change in China. It is NOT cyclical. They are NOT coming back.
4. Unemployment, and commercial vacancy rates are high, will go higher, and will be permanent for years, maybe decades.
5. Supporting businesses - restaurants, hotels, and retail stores that serve the employees of all those companies that left, are shutting down. Malls are empty. Car dealers have no customers.
What we see in China is very different from the normal cyclical economic issues we see elsewhere.
STOP talking about them as if they were similar in kind or scope.
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I expect an Asian Century --- but NOT -- a Chinese Century.
China has TWO huge problems that will prevent this --
1. the demographic collapse of China, which is in progress. and,
2. Xi and the CCP's wolf warrior diplomacy. The aggressive, threatening, crude, and insulting behavior of China on the world stage is destroying the trade relationships China built up during the last 40 years.
10 years ago, I knew many people that had visited China, or were looking forward to going.
Now, no one goes there. I think this is happening in many countries, not just the US.
Not only has China lost the sympathy and good feelings from people around the globe,
but now, many people now are happy when disasters hit China.
People root for the Three Gorges Dam to collapse.
People want the swaying skyscraper to come crashing down.
It is amazing. Even during the Cold War, there was still great sympathy for Russia when Chernobyl happened. No one was glad Russia was suffering.
Now?? I cannot say the same about China.
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Clarification --
By "everyone", I meant all the common workers at the mega companies we own.
You should all be equally poor and powerless.
We, those selected by God, to run your lives, and our government, on the other hand,
should be rich.
God ordained our wealth, and your poverty.
Don't worry, though, you will get yours in the afterlife, when you get to sit near God.
Not too near, mind you, for the best seats are reserved for us, the mega-rich.
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1. Germany had another opportunity to get oil, and a better one, IMO. DON"T attack Russia ------ Continue to attack UK, through Egypt, into Iraq & Arabia. There was lots of oil there. PLUS, Germany would have split Britain from India.
2. Ultimately, having oil was not Germany's problem -- it was moving it around. When the Germans abandoned their equipment in France for lack of oil, it was not because Germany had no oil -- it was because oil transport and processing had been destroyed or greatly reduced.
SO, even if Germany had lots of oil. Even if the Ploesti fields in Romania had been able to produce all of Germany's needs, that oil would not have been able to be used -- at least on the Western Front. The US & UK bomber offensive were finally successful in targeting oil transport.
This is my alternative view.
WW2 is very complex, and I think any claim that one thing or another was the cause of victory or defeat is treading on very dangerous and debatable ground.
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I believe this is a serious problem that has its origins in the millennia of imperial rule.
Imperial rule encourages corruption because positions are bought & sold,
are reserved for the high-born, and that action by magistrates requires gifts (bribes.)
Requiring gifts (bribes) to do their jobs is seen as normal.
So, bribery is part of the culture, and is not seen as criminal or even wrong.
Chinese armies of the past performed poorly against various foreign invaders,
I believe, due to corruption, poor leaders, and the diversion of funds meant for supplies into the pockets of officials.
I think all that is likely going on today.
In a future war, I expect the Chinese army to lose most battles,
just as their incompetence was exposed at the Galwan Valley incident.
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The Quad is no longer adequate to contain an aggressive expansionist China.
Something like NATO is needed. NATO stabilized and protected western Europe,
and allowed those nations to develop their institutions and wealth over the past 70 years in peace and security.
An Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization, like NATO, needs to be established.
IPTO should include India, Japan, Australia, and US of course.
It should also include the ASEAN nations, and South Korea.
Taiwan should be recognized by the IPTO nations, and be invited to join, too.
The IPTO alliance would show a united front towards China,
who now would know that any attack on one member, would be defended by all.
That should shut China up.,
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Taiwan needs defense in depth.
It should use all the weapons available for sinking ships, downing aircraft, and destroying radars.
1. It should have fast mine laying ability, using submarines, surface vessels, and aircraft.
2. It should have powerful radar jamming ability that can work over long distance.
3. It should have Mk 48 torpedo launchers in its subs, surface craft, and shore installations.
4. It should the most advanced ECCM systems in all its missiles.
5. Taiwan should have THOUSANDS of HF - 2, 2e, and 3 missiles
6. Taiwan should have (or develop) the ability to strike hard the Chinese ports closest to Taiwan, including Shanghai and Hong Kong.
7. Taiwan should have troops and installations ready to kill & destroy any Chinese assault troops that make it past the first defenses. The firing lines need to be created to ensure that landing forces are caught in intersecting lines of fire.
If this is done, I don't see how China can successfully invade Taiwan.
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Once, China suffered the Century of Humiliation, as it was dominated by European powers that bullied it.
That created great resentment within China. Very understandable.
China, under the CCP now though, is humiliating and destroying itself.
China is friendless. As it weakens, and others lose their fear of it, China will become a sad remnant of what it was.
What the world bought from China, is now shifting to India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, and even Taiwan.
As China is forced to backdown from its grand, but ludicrous, territorial claims, its weakness will be exposed.
As the nations around it get stronger, and unified, they will no longer fear China.
Xi's foreign policy is based on fear, bullying, and intimidation.
BUT, when a bully is no longer feared, the bully becomes an unloved object of ridicule -- pathetic and alone.
That is China's future under Xi.
I wonder if the CCP will follow Xi down that path???
So far, they have.
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LOL Yes, Check their past.
Like when they attacked Vietnam, or Korea, or the Xiongnu, or other peoples around them.
This regime have conquered Tibet, the Uyghurs, threaten Taiwan, threaten Japan,
threaten any who question them.
Xi and the CCP make the same noise, same speeches, as other dictators before they start a war.
See Hitler.
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BTW...Carriers have a huge role in peace time -- they project the physical power of America all over the world.
China would like to do that same, so they are building carriers. However, without a global network of bases, China's ability to project that power is very limited.
Sure, they have Djibouti in Africa, and Karachi in Pakistan, but these are of limited use. Any war with India, and both would be easily destroyed or blockaded by India. Even more so with America.
Can this change?? Sure, if China keeps at for 30 to 50 years. Even then, it is not likely because China is poor at making friends.
Also, in Africa, the arrangements being made with the rulers are anti-democratic and against the interests of both the citizens and the countries. That may work for awhile. But, sooner or later, a new regime comes to power and ends or cancels those arrangements.
Monies owed by contracts signed by dictators will be noncollectable. Europe and US will not allow China to send its army to enforce its contracts. So, tough luck China, you will be out of the money you gave for dictator vanity projects.
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Interesting ideas. Most wrong, IMO.
1. Ukraine has now developed a strong national identity, Poland will not expand into it -- except economically.
2. Russia is weakened and cannot defend Siberia --- China will take it, unless Japan & US participate in its partition,
which I think is likely.
Japan will get Sakhalin and the Kuriles -- maybe Kamchatka, Vladivostok, and the land bordering the Sea of Japan. The US taking Yakutsk, and much of the Arctic coast (which would piss off China).
China will take Lake Baikal, Irkustsk, and the Ob River valley.
3. The idea that the Turks will be able to re-establish hegemony over the Arab states is ludicrous.
The Arabs NEVER liked being ruled by the Turks, and they won't again.
4. Islam is anathema to the modern world. The past Islamic wealth came from trade, NOT manufacturing.
Silks & crockery came from China. Spices came from India.
Other than Turkish candies, and Persian rugs, nothing came from there.
That is why, when the Portuguese, Dutch, and English established sea trade, the Muslim world slowly died.
5. European borders won't change. They like them as they are. Too much blood spilled making them.
They would be scared to mess with them.
6. Vietnam will become the power of the Indo-China peninsula.
7. China will collapse. The center will fail. China will split into 4 to 6 smaller states.
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Akshit 69 I am American. But, I try to keep up on things there. IMO, US chose the wrong country to be our ally in that region. Now, to be fair, India was not welcoming of allies at the time. India wanted to be totally self sufficient, and it did not see the world as its problem. So, if China wants Tibet? India is Ok with that. If China abuses its people, India was OK with that, too.
Recently, though, India seems to be realizing that letting China have its way, just feeds the Dragon, and makes it want more.
India now realizes that it MUST help its smaller neighbors. India understands that having allies or friends helps to share the burden. India does NOT have to face China alone. Nor, should it.
When China threatens India, China threatens the world.
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Interesting. But, Capacity does not mean utilization. Does Pakistan have anything to export?? Or, will Pakistan merely be a transshipment corridor for China's goods? The US has been giving Pakistan billions every year for 40 years, and has done little with it. What makes anyone think that China's billions will have greater impact?
Sure, roads, ports, and warehouses will be built. But, will factories be built? Will real schools, not madrases, be built???
Will Pakistanis learn to read anything but the Koran???
Does not seem likely.
A lot of fanfare, but the results will be disappointing, I think.
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@offiz Every now and then, some American banks go bust, that is true.
In fact, in 2008-09, more than a few went under.
BUT -- not one person lost their savings, or even a portion of their savings. Can the same be said of Chinese bank failures??
The American system is flexible, and can take big hits. It bends, but does not break.
That is its biggest virtue, IMO.
Some who hate the US, are now predicting disaster, just because there are some issues. There will always be issues.
Debt, or inflation, or deflation, or recession, etc. etc.
But, if you look at history, the American economy and system just sailed on through.
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The Swedes and Norwegians should apologize to the Irish and Russians for making them slaves.
Spain needs to apologize to the dead Carib Indians, and other native Americans for enslaving and killing them, and to Africa, too. Then, Rome needs to apologize for enslaving everyone in the Mediterranean area, including the French, Germans, Greeks, Syrians, Berbers (Numidians), and so many more.
Turks need to apologize fo enslaving Greeks, Italians, Russians, Hungarians, Austrians, as well as killing them, too.
Muslims need to apologize for enslaving non-Muslims across Europe, Africa, and Asia.
etc etc etc.
Slavery was very common throughout history.
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Primakov blindly assumed that India would support Russia in opposing the west.
That is very wrong, IMO. India is very independent, and has had differences with the west.
But, those differences did not include opposition to democracy, or to the UN.
I see India as being opposed to the US on some issues, but not opposed the US, nor its role as a leading power.
In fact, I don't see India being opposed to any world power.
India is opposed to China, because China attacks it, and works against India on several fronts.
But, India does not oppose China philosophically. India is OK with whatever China does internally.
So, how is India to be part of a triple alliance with Russia and China??
And, how is Russia going to be in leading partner of this group??
That makes no sense.
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Ukraine & Poland will be the largest non-Russian militaries in Europe.
Germany does not count -- nice equipment, but no ammo. Less than a week's worth.
Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic States, Finland, Norway, and UK are the only countries in Europe
that US could rely on in a war with Russia.
The rest of NATO are doubtful, IMO.
France?? You never know what they will do or support. So we cannot rely on them.
Germany?? Their anti-military attitudes has castrated their military -- no ammo.
Italy? They have no idea what they want or what they believe in. The ultimate confused country.
Spain & Portugal? They don't see themselves as party to any conflict with Russia.
Greece? They are busy dealing with Turkey.
Turkey? They would rather take over Greece and Syria. Plus, they will sell weapons to Russia. An ally in any form? Not at all.
But, Poland, Ukraine, Baltic States, Finland, Sweden, and Norway would be wonderful allies.
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Also, the German army was weakened. But, you need to analyze Russia's condition. If Russia was also weaker by same ratio, then Germany could have succeeded
I however, Russia was better able to make up losses than Germany, then you are right.
I think that Russia was not able to make up it's losses by winter. So, Germany would have taken Moscow. By spring...it was too late.
Taking Moscow, though, would not have meant victory, IMO. Napoleon took Moscow and still lost.
I think Russia was too big for Germany, especially with UK and US fighting it.
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@dhiraj6727 Comes a time when you cannot remain neutral.
To stay "neutral" is like saying that both sides have equal validity.
To stay "neutral", India will be saying the death and dismemberment of a small weak democracy is OK.
This is now a shooting war, and tens of thousands of Ukraines will die.
Putin is threatening nuclear war.
If India stays neutral, then India's non-support of democracy, fairness, and humanity will be noted.
Many people like me have supported India against China, and have been encouraging the US to build stronger ties with India.
Already, I vomit as India supports death of Ukraine.
India and Indians only support themselves, and don't give a crap about other nations, or higher ideals like peace, justice, and democracy.
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@youxkio I presume they would try their hardest, and would get a percentage, but much less than the 100% they get in peace time.
Oil would be a bad problem. However, if a pipeline can be built from Iran, that might solve that problem.
Biggest problem would be food.
Fishing would be almost totally stopped.
Other imported food would be stopped as well. China is now a net importer of food, so that would be its greatest problem, I think.
If is a big rice producer. Is that enough??
War is horrible, and seems to never work out as leaders think at the start.
Civil War, WW1, and WW2 were supposed to be short wars, as thought by the ones who started them. The wars were long, and they lost.
Wars do tend to favor the ones with greater resources. So, US would likely win.
But, that doesn't always work out -- look at our Revolutionary War. The weaker side won that one.
War?? Best to avoid one.
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This is another reason for America's pivot towards India. This pivot, BTW, has NOTHING to do with Trump. It will continue under a Democrat president, too. If you notice, Secretary of State, Pompeo, is the front man on this...not Trump. I doubt if Trump has any clue about what we are doing in Subic Bay, the DaNang visit, the SCS, etc. He is pretty stupid, you know.
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The idea that the jet streams are affected by the warming of the poles is NOT new..
I had discussions with climatologists on that topic in 2010.
My contention was (and is) that many deserts will become wetter, not dryer for two reasons.
1. As the Earth warms there is more water vapor in the air, thus more rain. Warmer temps also means more energy,
so rain storms will be more windy, too.
2. The jet streams help control our climate zones. They help define the latitude of deserts.
Deserts created by a mountain shadow effect, are not impacted.
But, deserts like the Sahara, Arabian, Mojave, Sonoran, and Kalahari are defined the by jet streams.
NOW, if the jet streams break down, having huge meanders, or even disappearing altogether,
the weather patterns, and thus the rain patterns will become unpredictable -- more random.
We should see dry years in normally very wet areas.
AND, see wet years in deserts.
Therefore, dry areas, like Los Angeles, should also see very wet years from time to time.
So, the deserts should NOT become dryer, but wetter.
At least, that is how I analyze it.
So far, climatologists, who study this all the time, with powerful computers to do detailed modelling
disagree with me. I might be wrong. If so, I would like to learn how I am wrong.
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Peter, your "reasonable military assessment" is wrong.
1. 100 miles of ocean is no small thing to traverse.
2. Amphibious assaults are the most difficult military operation of all. And China has ZERO experience. Chance of success is about nil.
3. D-Day was difficult, and we had no resistance, until we hit the beaches. China's ships have to survive a 100 to 200 mile trip not being hit by Taiwan missiles.
Taiwan has 400 Harpoons. Taiwan's native missiles, HF-2, 2e, 3 are advanced and effective. They have ECCM, so are not easily defeated. They have several thousand of those.
HOW can China's fleet survive to put troops on Taiwan??
Ans: They can't.
4. Mobilizing for an invasion will take months, and will be observed by the US. The US will have MANY months to prepare for the invasion. China cannot prepare in secret. Your statement assumes US doesn't know and responds to the invasion. That is not what will happen.
The US will know, and pre-position naval and air assets long before China launches its invasion.
5. You are assuming it would be a quick and easy victory for China. Well, many long wars started out with the expectations of it being a short war. These wars were supposed to last weeks ----
WW1, WW2, American Civil War, Vietnam War, Napoleon's Spanish Campaign.
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No miracle. Very expected.
The Exodus of companies out of China need someplace to go, and Vietnam is the best place.
PLUS, Vietnam is welcoming foreign investment, and won't be so hard to deal with, as China was.
The Exodus Out Of China will cause economic development in a number of countries in SE Asia.
India, Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia will advance greatly as well.
Vietnam, though, IMO, will advance more because it has less institutionalized corruption compared to India and PH.
With all the countries rising, it is the region, taken as a whole, that will really blow the doors off.
Having a more developed SE ASIA will create a powerful region, just as Europe is powerful because all the nations are developed.
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@Sarwat Ihsan Seems to me,, wars are caused by male testosterone, and usually unnecessary.
For instance, take the Israel/Palestine conflict. Billions have been spent, and still being spent.
Well, if we took all those Billions, and spent it on people instead of weapons, we could make every Israeli & Palestinian millionaires.
But, nope, they would rather kill each other.
I remember the Oslo accords, where the PLA refused peace. War lovers on both sides killed the deal.
Why?
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@silveriver9 Off the radar??
How is China EVER off the radar?? China is always bragging, making claims, and being a big noise.
China has one thing going for it -- it is big.
Most of its accomplishments come from that alone. Nothing more.
Your assertions of its greatness have no backup, no solid evidence.
After making enemies of almost everyone, its export driven economy is crashing.
In 1979, the US and the world welcomed China into the world of Nations.
Gave it its seat in the UN.
Made it a member of the WTO.
Invested Billion$ in China to build up its industry.
And how did China pay everyone back??
Theft, threats, and thievery.
The nations of the world have had enough.
They are pulling out their companies, and their cash.
China wants to claim it is better than everyone else, and everyone should bow to it.
Well, that will not happen.
See, how far China falls, not that it is alone.
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There is a bit of "hypersonic" craze going on.
It comes from ignorance.
First, it must be remembered that the purpose of a missile is to hit its target.
Hypersonic is only a tool to help do that.
Second, the US has the lead in stealth and in guidance systems. So, US missiles
are stealthier and trickier to make them difficult to stop.
Third, Hypersonic performance comes at a cost. For that speed the engine has to be big,
making the rocket bigger and more costly. It also can restrict what platforms it can fit.
Fourth, older does not mean ineffective. The latest variants of Harpoon, for instance, are very hard to intercept, for the majority of China's ships.
Fifth, hypersonic missiles fly high to get their speed. Sub-sonic missiles, like Harpoon, are sea-skimming, making them impossible to detect until they come over the horizon. So, the time to respond by a target is still quite short. CWIS can be effective, though, if they are not stealthy or tricky in the approach flight path.
The hypersonic missile that China tested was an alternative to using a ballistic missile to deliver nuclear warheads. It was NOT a SSM missile to be used in local naval or land battles.
The reason it concerned the US, is that it negates the effectiveness of THAAD and other anti-nuclear missile defenses.
The problem with reports like these, is that they give partial information that gives wrong impressions and ideas.
Our military is not stupid. These armchair YouTube experts do a disservice by giving partial and often wrong information.
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This is wonderful.
Ukraine's success, though, is not only from their bravery and training.
Russia's failure, IMO, has more to do with Russian incompetence.
The Russian army has degraded over the years from criminal mismanagement.
Parts of military equipment were scavenged and sold.
Also, Russian army does not have NCOs to lead and direct the troops.
It is still structured the way it was in WW2. It is very wasteful of soldier's lives, and inflexible in combat. The Russian army is not able to deal with a dynamic battlefield.
The Russian army is incompetent on so many levels.
For instance, has any report said Russia hit a Ukraine fuel depot? or Command Center? or radar? or ammo depot? NO - Russia hits large non-military targets - though horrible is militarily incompetent. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been able to hit hundreds of vital important Russian targets. Targets that have severely degraded Russia's ability to function.
Now, it is difficult to see how Russia will be able to hold onto any Ukraine territory, including Crimea.
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The idea that the Muslim empires were singular with strong central authority is a myth.
One reason the crusades were successful was that Islamic rule was highly fractured.
The rulers of cities like Aleppo, Damascus, and Antioch might or might not help each other.
They were really separate independent entities.
During Ottoman Rule, Egypt was independent, even though it was supposedly "Ottoman".
IMO, the main reason there is no Muslim "super state", is that the governing philosophies, institutions, and beliefs in the Muslim world are primitive. Saudi Arabia is a medieval monarchy, for instance.
Muslim countries devolve into single man rule, like the rule of princes in the Middle Ages.
There is no tradition of Parliaments, Assemblies, or other institutions based on voting.
Democracy is alien to Muslims.
Egypt and Pakistan have democratic institutions because of their brief rule by Britain.
But, they are weak. The people, having no tradition of democracy, are comfortable with one man rule, and strive for that.
What makes it worse is that the Koran endorses autocracy, not democracy. To many Muslims, democracy is alien and unacceptable. I doubt the Muslim world will change much in the next 100 years. In 2122, people will still be writing articles, asking "Why is the Muslim world poor?", "Why is the Muslim world undemocratic?", "Why can't modern high tech businesses succeed in Muslim countries?"
The same questions that are asked now.
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Ridiculous assertion.
England was once the world's manufacturer.
US replaced in the 20's.
US stayed until China replaced it.
Japan and Germany challenged but could not do it.
China did replace the US ---- BUT ---
English money partly financed the rise of the US.
English money built our railroads, and financed many companies.
..
Fast forward to 2000, and you see China growing with American and EU money.
Since China chose to see its partners as enemies, they are taking their money elsewhere.
China is being replaced, and quite quickly.
One part of the assertion is true, though.
China is being replaced by many countries --- not just one.
Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, India, and some others.
China is big,, after all.
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Interesting that so many climate deniers comment - with false facts of course. Like always they accuse the climate scientists of doing all this to get their research funded. Yet, none of them decide to become climate scientists to become rich. Why not?
Well, being a scientist is not a road to wealth (unless of course, if you become a petro-geologist working for an oil company)
These climate scientists get to spend months in a hut in Antarctica, or Ellesmere Island, or Greenland, where their treat might be a Snickers bar, not a restaurant meal of pizza or steak. That funding they get will pay for the ship they are on, or their transportation, and their instruments. They don't get money to spend on vacations, nice cars, and big houses. No, the oil company paid scientists get those things.
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Seriously, though, the constant claims of the supporters of the idea of climate change, that hurricanes and other weather disasters are the result of climate change, show their ignorance.
Climate is not weather.
There have always been hurricanes - long before the industrial age.
It is impossible to connect any hurricane with global warming.
We do know that there is more energy in the global weather system ----
so storms may TEND to be more powerful, but there is no way to say a particular storm was strong because of it.
Besides, Hurricane Ian was just a class 3, not close to being the strongest. The reason for the damage was where it hit, and that it hit in a way that caused a large storm surge.
It was the surge that drowned so many people.
Was that caused by global warming??
Not likely.
IMO - by trying to link weather events that have NOTHING to do with climate change,
the very premise of climate change becomes discredited.
I wish they would stop this. Climate change is serious, and needs to be treated that way.
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Keeping the wealth, and not sharing the wealth is not a good long term strategy. Sure, repressive measures work for awhile. But, eventually, cracks occur, and there is an uprising.
It is impossible to predict what event will galvanize the protests, or know the resulting dynamic.
Look at how the Arab Spring started in Tunisia with a street vendor being mishandled by a cop.
When that happens, this event will give Ethiopia the right, the duty, to step in and restore order.
Djibouti should be part of Ethiopia. One needs a port, and the other needs a country.
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If Russia truly wants to conquer Ukraine, I am afraid that it can, and there is little anyone can do to stop them.
But, after conquest, then what???
The Ukrainian people will likely resist, making governing difficult and costly.
Worse for Russia, is that EU and NATO nations will likely break off trade, finance, and other contacts.
I expect ever air flights will be reduced, restricted, and possibly eliminated.
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Whoa!
When has the US toppled a regime and installed a democracy???
Not in Chile -- assassinated a democratically elected leader, Salvador Allende, and put in a dicatator, Pinochet.
Iran - toppled a democracy, and installed the Shah, a dictator.
US supports the Saudi family, an oligarchic theocratic dictatorship.
Vietnam - assassinated Diem, and installed Ky.
Taiwan - installed the Kuomintang, ruled autocratically, until Taiwan became democratic on its own.
SO, where are these democracies installed by the US that he talked about???
Please, I would like to know.
BTW -- I do not include Japan & Germany.
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I am disturbed by the huge amount of ignorance shown by "analysts" of China.
1. China is profoundly different from other countries. Its banks and companies are not structured like those in other countries. Its economy and institutions are not structured like other countries.
Any comparison to Japan's or South Korea's economic situations shows that ignorance, and the incompetence of the analyst.
The CCP's direct control of companies and market institutions makes corporate behavior, and capital markets unique to China, and prevents them from behaving normally or effectively.
2. Wolf, like most other analysts, tend to look at issues in isolation.
For instance, talking about China moving towards a consumer driven economy --- is out of place.
A few years ago, it made sense. China was booming and employment was high.
THEREFORE --- China had consumers. People were flush with money and were spending.
HOWEVER -- that was then, not now. The west is pulling its money out of China. China's membership in the WTO is essentially being revoked. Unemployment is now a HUGE problem.
THAT MEANS -- people are broke and cannot drive a consumer based economy.
Any talk of a move to a consumer based economy for China is absurd, and incompetent.
The Chinese people are too broke.
Issues must be understood in the context of all the other issues.
3. The CCP must be understood in its historical context. It is NOT Communist.
The CCP mimics the structure and operation of Imperial China more than anything Marx, Lenin, or Stalin created.
China has the gloss of Stalinism. But, it shows the behavior of belief in China as The Middle Kingdom. It treats businesses and provincial governments similar to the way Imperial China did.
Note how no one is a true citizen of China. Each is a citizen of the province of his birth, and must look to its province for medical, educational, and other support. That is why China has the odd concept of "internal migrant".
This is also why China expects other nations to defer to it, and for its smaller neighbors to act like vassal states (which they won't do. IMO, the SCS is likely where a war will start.)
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In 1982, my company asked for a volunteer to go audit one of their companies in Northern Ireland. No one wanted to go for fear of the Troubles. Well, I saw that it took 10 years for 1,000 people to be killed there, while in Chicago, we were having about 1,000 per year, so I said, WTF, I will go.
On driving into Northern Ireland from the South, I went through the zig-zag switchbacks to get to a British trooper. He asked me my name, I said "Craig Dillon". What are you here for? - Business. BUT, I want to go see Castle Dillon that I see on the map. I want to go see what my relatives built. He looked at me oddly, and waved me through.
I drove through Armagh, in which a demonstration was going on, blocking the street. I asked, "What's going on?". Demonstrator told me, "We are demonstrating, road's closed.". I said, "I from America, how can I get through?".
He said, "Oh, in that case, you back down the road, turn there, go there, and turn there, and you will be on your way."
I did as he said, and go to Castle Dillon. I did think, typical Irish, a blockade you can easily get around. I laughed to myself.
Anyway, I get to Castle Dillon, and drive through the gate. I see a squad of uniformed soldiers running in formation. Hmm, I say to myself. I see the big Georgian mansion that must be Castle Dillon. I drive around back.
I see an empty guard post, with red and white stripes. No one there.
Behind a barbed wire fence, I see jeeps and armored cars.
Hmm, I say to myself, seems the Brits are using my family's house.
I stopped my car. Stepped out, and started take photographs.
After a few pics, I thought, "Hmm, taking pics of a military post, may NOT be a good idea."
So, I got back into my car.
Drove away, and didn't look back.
When I told people what I did. Everyone told me I was an idiot.
I didn't argue.
Now, when I got to my hotel, that week, I brought the concept of "Partying" to Northern Ireland.
But, that is another story.
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The idea that people will turn away from consumerism, towards minimalism sounds attractive, but I doubt it.
A move away from consumerism and towards simplicity has always had proponents.
Buddha & Jesus preached it, and some followed.
The monastic movement of the Dark Ages & Middle Ages.
The move towards simplicity in the 17th & 18th centuries by the Amish, Mennonites, Quakers, and Shakers.
Remember the song, "Tis a gift to be simple"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co47FjVGZhQ&ab_channel=CedarmontKids
And, lastly, the Hippie movement of the 60's was about leaving materialism, and being more simple.
It has been tried over and over.
But, the mass of humanity rejects simplicity, and opts for luxury.
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The problem with war is that you never know what will happen. for example, Hitler had no idea that Britain would go to war over Poland. What's more he could not imagine that they would not welcome peace negotiations.
Similarly, how would EU, UK, and US react if Russia invaded the Baltic states. No one lifted a finger when Putin took Crimea. No one did directly oppose Russia's war in Ukraine. Sure, some weapons, and verbal support, but not much else.
Kind of like the time Hitler took the Rhineland, Austria, and Czechoslovakia with little opposition.
Would the Balkan States be "Poland" for the EU and US??? Would that be the tripwire??
No one can tell.
Putin cannot tell.
I think it is fairly likely that Putin will miscalculate one of these days, and the western powers will respond in force.
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@hermanwooster8944 Thank you.
I do feel that Kennan's thoughts on the expansion of NATO must taken in context, with what was going on in 1995.
It had looked like Russia was becoming a democracy under Yeltsin.
It did not turn out that way. Now Putin is acting like a Soviet leader.
I think now he would re-state the policy of containment that he did in 1949.
Moreover, I think he would be for preventing Russia from developing a new "Iron Curtain" of dominated countries.
That is, I doubt Kennan would support the idea of condemning Poland, Hungary, Ukraine, etc back into a Russian ruled group of vassal states.
Also, I disagree with your description of US bombing Serbia, a Russian ally.
1. Serbia was NOT a formal ally. Historical connection, but no alliance.
2. Serbia was killing civilians in Bosnia and Kosovo to establish its own "Greater Serbia", which, BTW, was a goal of Serbia since the 1800's.
3. Serbia was quite violent and cruel, committing war crimes, for which they have been prosecuted.
4. Our actions in former Yugoslavia were supported by the European nations.
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The real question is, "Can Russia Win?".
The answer is no -- not as long as Ukraine keeps fighting.
You see, a war of conquest, can only be won with total victory.
While a war of defense is won by not losing.
Case in point -- the American War of Independence.
The battle of Yorktown did not, by itself, end that war.
That war ended when Parliament used that battle to accept the idea that Britain could not win --- so they stopped fighting.
Or, our Vietnam War. That war ended, for us at least, when we decided, Oh F**K it all, we're done. The US military did not lose the combat. We just decided we didn't want to fight anymore. That is how Vietnam won.
So, Ukraine merely has to keep its army in the field. Which it can easily do.
Russia will lose when it gets tired of fighting, and having sanctions, and then finally decide to ride themselves of Putin.
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$6.2 Billion??
Not hardly. $6.2 Billion is just for the ship.
If the 70 airplanes are lost, at $60 million per plane,
add another $4.2 Billion.
Does anyone have any idea of how many rockets and what types they carry???
Sidewinders cost about $400K.
If the ship has 1000 of them, then add another $0.4 B
AIM 120's, AAMRAM, cost about $1M each.
So, if 1000 of them, then another Billion.
Billion here, a Billion there, and pretty soon, we are talking about real money.
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Related question is "Why was their no Reformation in the Orthodox branch of Christianity?"
After the invention of the printing press, the Renaissance, Age of Discovery, and Age of Enlightenment occurred in Western Europe.
WHY did those ages, or something like them, occur in Ottoman Empire, Persia, India, China, Chosun Empire, or Japan??
They ALL had access to the printing press. They all also had access to the new guns invented in Europe, too.
But, why did they ALL lag behind Western Europe??
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The Muslim countries of the Middle East will have some major failures.
Their biggest problem, IMO, is Islam itself.
If you go back to 1300, the difference between the Islamic world and Christian Europe was not that much.
Rulers in both areas looked to religious leaders to confirm their title, and say they are OK with god.
In Europe, rulers had to get their marriages blessed by the Pope.
It was a Pope's refusal to allow King Henry VIII to divorce and marry another that caused England to become Protestant.
In fact, it was the religious wars, and atrocities of the 1500's that ended religion's importance in Western Europe.
By 1700, government no longer cared what religion a person was.
In 1600, the Archbishop of Canterbury was the 2nd most powerful person in England.
BY 1700, he disappears from history. He is no longer important as a political leader.
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Also, China's claims to the SCS have f**k all to do with resources.
If that was the case, it would claim EEZ rights.
BUT -- China claims FULL SOVEREIGNTY.
Why???
Simple. if recognized, then most trade in the area would be controlled by China.
Japan, Taiwan, ROK, PH, VT, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia would
become vassal states to China.
When it comes to China --- it is NOT about resources and money ---
It is about POWER and CONTROL.
In your analyses of China, keep that in mind.
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Republicans have taken the Supreme Court.
Republicans are pushing America towards a police state.
The question is "Is America willing to have such a country?"
I don't think so.
I think women, especially, will push back, since they are the early victims.
Blacks & minorities are pushing back, for obvious reasons.
Big business is always a major component of a Fascist regime,
like in Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy.
A big question for America is whether big business supports
the Republican grab for power, and the loss of our Constitutional rights??
I hope not, because businesses are also protected by our Constitution.
If the Constitution is degraded, then the government can dictate to businesses.
The CCP in China dictates to businesses.
They have the power, and they see it as "necessary".
The 2022 elections will be important.
IF Republicans get hold of the Senate & House, as some predict,
then our move down the path towards Fascism will continue.
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Considering Europe alone, if Hitler had waited, it is possible that Germany would have fared better. Although, you have good arguments that a better outcome would still be difficult.
However, Japan's attack on Pearl would still have happened, and the US would have gone to war with Japan.
Even without a European war, the US would have gone into full war economy mode.
If German had waited, the US would be much more powerful at the start of Germany's war.
Moreover, being already at war, the US would have entered the European war more quickly and easily.
ALSO -- people always talk about Germany's development of jets as if they were alone. Both, the US and UK had jet aircraft development going on in 1941. They were at par with Germany, IMO, and were WAY AHEAD in the ability to produce them in quantity.
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You talk about the population difference, which has usually been an important factor, especially if the wars lasts.
However, times have changed. Wars are now technology based.
In that regard, Israel has a huge advantage over Egypt. Israel has an arms industry, and has clients around the world.
Another advantage that Israel has is motivation -- Egypt fights to conquer, while Israel fights to survive. That makes a BIG difference, IMO.
I also question Egypt's ability to effectively use the high tech equipment it has. How well trained & motivated is the Egyptian military, especially its air force???
It seems to me that the Egyptian military's primary use has been to keep the government in power -- not train or prepare for a real war. Police forces don't make good armies, IMO.
If an Egyptian/Israeli war broke, I think Israel would win again ------
BUT --- the United States & EU would NOT come to Egypt's rescue, and stop Israel from completely defeating Egypt.
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Interesting, some good stuff, but mostly wrong.
1. he doesn't understand what happened in the Great Depression, and what caused it.
The Great Depression was NOT a mere market correction.
2. He also does not understand the relationship between debt and cash creation.
3. He talks about debt like debt is inherently bad -- which is wrong.
I won't go into most of it.
BUT, consider, how would your life be if you had to save up the entire cost of a house
to buy your home. So, if you wanted to live in a simple house of $100,000,
If you did not use debt, you would have to save up that entire sum.
How old would people be when they buy their first homes?
Well, before the Great Depression, people did not take out mortgages to buy homes,
they mostly paid cash, or at least a large portion of the price, with a short term note.
When we started using mortgages, with Savings & Loan companies which were set up in the 1930's,
the whole nation got wealthier.
You see, debt is how cash is created, and it is the accumulated debt we have that
backs our currency,
I will explain another time.
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UK did not cause the problems of the world.
UK did not create Islam.
The Pakistan/Indian problem is caused more by the intolerance of Islam, than anything UK did.
Ditto for the Israeli/Palestinian problem.
UK can be proud of its world legacy.
Look at the ex-British colonies -- they are democratic, or are trying to be.
Look at the Spanish and French ex-colonies - great difficulty with democracy, and long standing social and class issues. South American countries have been independent over 200 years, still huge problems.
But, look at Ghana, Nigeria, Bahamas, and India - doing pretty good. [Ok, Burma and Pakistan, not doing so well. can't be perfect.]
I think UK has been a good for the world
(despite its genocide of 8 million Irish from 1840 to 1850).
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Typically, I agree with Zeihan's facts, BUT ---
disagree with his conclusions.
Insurance companies do not exist on an island, by themselves.
They exist to serve corporate interests.
Maritime insurance serves global corporate interests.
Global maritime trade will continue, its safety ensured and enforced.
Politically, the US and other countries MAY be coming to be more insular and self involved.
That does NOT really matter.
If you think domestic politics controls the use and application of the US military ---
you are wrong, IMO.
Global corporate interests will make sure that the US, Japan, EU, Saudi Arabia, India, and
ALL other advanced countries with money to enforce global maritime activities.
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Indian troops have always had a good reputation, especially the Sikh.
In the US, as a child, I saw in movies, the Indian troops used by Britain were always portrayed with bravery and dignity.
Since then, I have not heard or read anything that would indicate otherwise.
India has not sought wars, and has not bullied and threatened its neighbors, like China does,
but, that does not mean it is cowardly.
Far from it. India has always stood up for itself.
It has stood up to the US, which I realize was probably not an easy thing to do.
India never showed fear of any country, as far as I can remember.
If an Indo-China war does come, I have no doubt India would win.
BUT, both have nuclear weapons, which if used, we all lose.
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The appointment of Barrett could end up being the Republican's Pyrrhic victory.
Since Roe v Wade, the issue of women's health care and equality has been off the political stage.
Women felt protected. They were comfortable. Over 70% of women support R v W.
Now, if the Supreme Court turns extreme right wing corporatist, where citizen's rights are destroyed,
THEN...the electorate will look to Congress to protect them.
That means, that they will elect more Democrats.
Republicans are owned by corporate interests, and by the evangelical extremists.
They are against anything that benefits the common person.
Health care, education, national parks, clean air, clean water, cheap medicine, etc...
If something helps people, they are against it.
So, to protect themselves, people will turn to the Democratic party.
Laws will have to be written so that a corporatist owned and controlled Supreme Court
won't be able to destroy our lives and our country.
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The global Covid impact on supply chains will be the biggest reason for the decline in "Made In China" products on American shelves, IMO.
I wish the atrocities, harsh government, and international bullying would be enough to cause a break with China. But, companies are willing to work with slave production, organ harvesting, and genocidal policies of China. Companies don't have much a moral center. Pity.
However, the cost of the global supply chain disruption is too much for them.
They are finding that long, complicated, supply chains are too vulnerable.
Moreover, labor costs are NOT that important in many industries.
An automated factory costs the same, whether built in China, the US, or anywhere.
The cost is the automation of the factory. The variable portion of product cost has diminished to the point of not being that big of a concern.
So, for many industries, having production close to the market is better. It reduces inventory and transport costs, AND it allows for faster response to market changes.
It is for these reasons we will see a restructuring of global supply chains,
and a HUGE reduction of Chinese exports.
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WRONG...WRONG...WRONG....
IMHO, that boundary between Frankia & Germania was created by the Roman Empire. Even the disputed lands west of the Rhine were defined then. So, the future battlegrounds of The Netherlands, Alsace & Lorraine, Piedmont/Genoa/France borders, were all created during the Roman Empire.
So, the division of the Carolingian Empire just re-established what had been before Charlemagne's conquests. The Carolingian Empire was the aberration.
In fact, it even predates that. France was Celtic Gaul for centuries. Then came the Germans, who kicked the Celts out of Germany. The division is a language/cultural division, as well as geographic. Think about it...
French make good wine --- Germans make lousy wine.
French make lousy cars -- Germans make great cars
French make great clothes -- Who buys German clothes??? (Maybe that's why nudism is popular there)
French make great bread -- Germans, not so great
French make great cheeses --- Germans make lousy cheeses (Limburger anyone??)
Do French even make beer?? -- Germans make great beer
French are obnoxious tourists -- Germans are obnoxious tourists (OK, so they have one common point. It does not invalidate my thesis --- they are obnoxious in different ways.)
Then there is the Dutch, who drink Dutch beer, eat Dutch cheese, drive German cars, wear French fashions, speak both languages, and mock them both.
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Recently, when Japan changed leaders, many people speculated that Japan would become more "China friendly",
and be more accommodating. Well, that did NOT happen, did it??
I think the same will happen with Biden.
The recent change in American policy towards China comes from a very deep place.
It is one of the developments that did NOT come from Trump's whimsy.
The change in US policy towards China has been slowly building, starting in the Obama administration.
The barriers to China's markets, coupled with its theft of intellectual property, harassment of Chinese born American citizens, spying, cyber attacks, bullying of countries around the world, and more has become intolerable.
The US opened its markets to China, with the idea that as China participated in the world economy,
that it would change.
Instead, China is infecting the world order with its aggression, lawlessness, and oppression.
The world is at a crossroads -- it may follow the CCP model, or it could follow the western model.
It CANNOT do both.
IF the western nations want the world to be shaped by their traditions, laws, and the modern nation state, then it must fight for it.
If not, then China will drag the world back to the time when emperors ruled - their whims, jealousies, and neuroses determined "laws" and policies -- human life was of little value.
Read the histories of the empires and conquerors of Asia, that is the kind of world that Xi and the CCP want to bring us back to.
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Have to disagree with Peter on this. It is good to learn from history, but you can also learn the wrong things.
War were very different before the industrial age. Europe had the 100 Years War, the Thirty Years War, and other conflicts that took decades. Wars were just a series of battles. The life of people hardly changed, unless they were in or near a battle.
In the industrial age, wars are very different. They involve the productive capacity of nations.
WW1 did not end because of conditions on the battlefield. It ended because Germany lost the ability to support their troops in the field. (PS - that is why many Germans were angry how that war ended. They didn't understand that Germany could NOT fight anymore.).
The sanctions is having a devastating effect on Russia. No way can Russia continue fighting forever. In a year, or two, Russia will no longer have the capacity to fight. It won't take decades, or even many years for Russia ceases to have the ability to fight.
Meanwhile, Ukraine will be constantly supplied. The west does have some procurement issues. Those are being dealt with. Ukraine's supply may be less than it wants sometimes. But, it will be able to fight. Since this war is existential for Ukraine -- Ukraine has no choice but to fight, whether months or years.
Ukraine will outlast Russia, however long.
That is the big reason Russia will lose.
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China is currently being evicted from the global trading system. It may even be ejected from the global banking and finance system.
Chinese companies will be delisted from stock exchanges around the world.
This is the life blood of modern economies. Xi's idea that he can resurrect a successful imperial economy practiced under past emperors will end in failure, and the impoverishment of China.
India, IMO, will likely grow the most, and have the most success in the 21st century. But, this will only happen if they play by the rules of the global system. Then, India may supplant the US as the biggest economy in this system.
But, even then, India MUST play by the system or it will suffer.
In fact, if the US decided to not play by the global system, then the US would suffer, too, IMO.
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Those who think China will overtake the US, extrapolate the growth of the past 30 years, assuming it will continue uninterrupted.
That is a false assumption.
1. Urbanization helped fuel that growth. China is done urbanizing.
2. 30 years ago, China had a huge young adult work force that fueled growth.
Now, China has an aging work force, that will be an economic drag.
3. Debt has piled up and reached unsustainable levels. China can no longer use debt to fuel its growth. In fact, the debt bubble is bursting, and taking down many companies, like Evergrande.
4. Xi and the CCP have turned away from the export growth model of Deng Xio Ping, which fueled the growth. The new Maoist model will sabotage growth.
Not only will China not grow, its wealth will shrink.
I expect famine and social unrest to happen in next 5 years.
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School only has the time to acquaint you with the highlights of history at best. Besides wars, did you learn about
Spanish American War, Roaring Twenties, Suffragette Movement & the Vote for Women, The Great Depression, The Dust Bowl, The Progressive Movement & The Roosevelts, The Berlin Blockade, Korean War, Cold War, Civil Rights movement, Vietnam War, a few other 20th Century goodies???
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For centuries, China's rulers have treated the Chinese people as disposable commodities.
This is due to the fact that China has always been overpopulated. That is, it had more people
than it needed to do the work needed to be done.
In the Middle Ages, Europe was overpopulated, which led to serfdom and slavery, and the loss of human rights.
Then came the Bubonic plague, 50% of people died. Europe was then UNDER-populated.
Human rights became recognized. Autocracy diminished.
Will the population bomb make China UNDER-populated??
Will the common citizen become more valued by the government??
Businesses are already valuing the common Chinese citizen more,
since wages are rising.
However, Xi and the CCP seem to be stuck in the deep past of Imperial rule style,
Middle Kingdom attitudes, and the idea that China is supreme.
So, I expect Xi & gang to treat the Chinese as disposable, not recognizing or respecting their dignity and value.
This, too, will be a factor in their fall.
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The Islamic world never went through a Reformation. Never went through the Enlightenment.
So, the Islamic world is still stuck with Medieval thinking. In the Islamic world, government is still associated with religion.
They ALL have Islam as their official state religion.
Islam tries to control people.
It is ILLEGAL for a person to change their religion, at least to change from Islam to something else.
When you talk to Muslim's, you will often find, as I have, that many are not only not practicing,
but many are Atheists, or Christian, or something else. They just keep it secret, or at least very quiet.
This lack of openness, and inability to treat all people equally, will prevent Islamic nations from
becoming modern nation states.
As their money runs out, their Muslim citizens will become very angry.
Not having learned history or philosophy, they will be incapable of understanding their situation.
They will blame everything but their distorted, antiquated, and obsolete religion.
They will turn on their government, and on each other.
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As a child, we had dime store balsa airplanes, that we flew by throwing them into the air.
They consisted of 5 pieces--- the fuselage, the wing, the stabilizer, the tail, and a metal clip.
The first four were simple...put them together, and you have your plane, or what looks like one.
BUT, that metal clip was necessary. It was thick, and had weight. I now know it gave the plane a center of gravity where you put it.
The plane behaved differently when placed in different places. As I recall, when placed forward, it would do great loops. Which was great. Placed more centrally, it would fly nice and level and go a long way --- boring, plus you had to go get it.
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The "Taiwan Representative Office Act" was passed 222-210, along party lines.
This shows that Democrats support Taiwan, and Republicans do not.
Like always, Republicans talk a good game, and try to appear strong.
But, Republicans have long been known to be "chicken hawks".
Talk tough, but really are cowards. (Like Trump).
Trump talked.
Biden performs
AUKUS, Quad, arms to Taiwan,
defying China in the South China Sea,
banning Huawei,
building new base in Palau,
etc.
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There were several causes. Like always, reality is more complicated.
First, trade with the orient moved to Portuguese, Dutch, and English ships, thus starving the silk road. The once trading monopoly that the Ottoman's enjoyed ended.
Second, the western European development of the corporation enabled western Europe to manage capital and investment better. Western Europe slowly became wealthier and more powerful than Eastern Europe and the Ottoman Empire.
Third, the development of the policy of "separation of Church and State" that occurred after the Thirty Year's War freed Western Europe from the issues of religion, bringing on the Enlightenment.
Fourth, the overseas colonies and trading empires of Spain, England, France, and Holland increased their wealth and power immensely.
Fifth, the maturity of the modern nation state made the empire model of governing obsolete. The Ottoman Empire could not manage its resources as efficiently, and it was in constant struggles for succession and political power. The palace intrigues of Topkapi may make for great reading, but it makes for lousy governing.
BTW..Putin's apparent attempt to impose an "empire model" to Russia will also end in failure, I predict. He will seem to succeed for a while due to the strength of his personality. Eventually, he will age or die. When he goes, Russia will have the eternal succession problem of empires. Succession struggles weakened Rome, Turkey, and China. They will weaken Russia, too. One day there will be a Democratic Revolution in Russia. I just wonder how long it will take.
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You can NEVER merely talk about what a carrier can do.
NO carrier goes alone. Each is accompanies by destroyers, cruisers, and subs.
Therefore, when talking about range, or theaters of operations,
you have to talk about the range and supply issues of all the support ships.
This is where bases become an issue.
If US wants to operate in the Indian Ocean, we have a base at Diego Garcia.
If the US wants to operate in the Atlantic, we have US bases, and in the UK.
For the Mediterranean, we have a base in Naples
Near China, we have naval bases in Japan, Philippines, Palau, Guam, and Wake Island.
Plus, countries friendly to the US, like Australia, will allow us to use their facilities, if need arises.
China needs to do a lot more if it wants to challenge the US on the high seas.
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CO2 is going up 2 to 3 ppm each year.
By 2100, we will be well over 500 ppm, a level not seen since the Dinosaurs, when no ice was on the planet.
We will blow by 2 degrees C, and hit at least 4 degrees C.
The process will accelerate.
Since we have not even begun to recognize the problem,
nothing of significance will be done.
All the efforts taken now are useless.
Planting trees, going to renewable energy, going carbon neutral, etc are all too little too late to be of much use, IMO.
Can we do anything???
Yes. But we won't.
We would have a chance if we did two things ----
1. A global crash program to eliminate ALL fossil fuel energy use by 2030. .... AND....
2. A global crash program of carbon removal from the atmosphere.
IF ALL CO2 emissions stopped, but we stayed at 420ppm CO2,
we would still recreate the Pliocene when oceans were 70 ft deeper. '
We MUST return CO2 back to 350ppm, or even back to the level of 1800, when it was 280ppm.
see. https://www.co2.earth/
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You are NOT talking about the remote working issue.
At least, not fairly. You seem to think that only you have the right to speak.
That CEO was honest and open about her thoughts.
The fact that you don't agree with here, does not make her bad, evil, or even wrong.
She said "birthday parties", and you laughed at her for that.
Well, knowing each other, and interacting with each other can be very important in some companies. If the work is very isolated, requiring little interaction with others, then that may not be needed.
But, if a CEO wants to foster teamwork, solidarity, and true concern and empathy within the work force, then I think that is to be lauded.
To think that remote working is possible in all situations is patently stupid.
BTW..why don't you at TNT work remotely? You work together in the same studio -- why???
Do you find the instant non-verbal communication to be good???
I bet you do.
Cenk, it is your knee-jerk reaction to either praise or condemn with very little thought or consideration that I find disturbing and disappointing.
Moreover, it is your judging and pre-judging that is disgusting.
Oh beware anyone caught in your cross hairs.
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Sea Lion was bad idea -- True.
HOWEVER, Britain could have been attacked differently, and should have been done prior to Barbarossa.
Hitler should have focused on the Mediterranean ===
=== Take Malta & Gibraltar. Triple the size of Afrika Corps.
=== Take Egypt & Suez canal, cutting Britain off from easy communication with India.
=== Take Iraq, Kuwait, and Palestine. Cutting UK off from mideast oil.
=== Get Turkey to be cooperative, maybe ally.
=== With Allies kicked out of the Mediterranean, build robust supply chain for Middle East oil.
=== Develop good relationship with Iran, get allies kicked out of Iran,
=== Occupy French North Africa
=== Now with oil secured, Germany is now in position to win a long war.
=== Develop fighters & dive bombers with 1,000 mile radius to bomb Scapa Flow and sink Royal Navy.
=== Focus heavily on increasing wartime production of planes, new planes, and U-boats.
=== Use air power in anti-shipping role, combined with U-boat predation, starve UK.
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Taking my earlier example further...
A bank with $100,000 at 10% reserve rate, lends out $1,000,000 to 5 people who bought 5 houses at $250,000 each, creating $1,000,000 in newly "printed" money.
If the government wants to stimulate the economy, it can do that easily by lowering the reserve rate.
For instance, in this case, if the government lowers the reserve rate to 5%, this bank could now lend out $2,000,000 total, thus enabling 5 more people to buy 5 more similar houses, and creating $2,000,000 in additional dollars.
Now, there are limits to this
During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve was allowing some banks to have 0% reserve rate. Now, theoretically, that meant that they could lend out an infinite amount. The Financial Collapse that caused bank failures was probably our good fortune, because if those banks had been allowed to do that, then we would have had hyper-inflation and a collapse of the dollar. That would have taken 25 to 50 years to recover from. Look at 1920 Germany, Argentina, and other countries that had hyperinflation and currency destruction -- a banking collapse is preferred, IMO.
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Once, the nations on the periphery suffered from isolation, and so could be intimidated and coerced.
China could deal with Korea, Vietnam, Mongolia, and the others on a one-by-one basis.
China was a natural hegemon.
The modern world is entirely different. Maritime trade dominates, not overland trade.
All, except Mongolia, are well connected to the world. None are dependent on China.
They desire trade, but they are not wholly dependent upon it.
Oddly, China's recent rise as a manufacturing behemoth created a temporary situation
that mimicked the old situation where China was a natural hegemon.
Xi and the CCP think that China is such a hegemon again.
They are wrong.
Already, manufacturing is moving to other countries. The temporary situation is now changing.
The regional countries are now rising (which was inevitable).
So, China is overplaying its hand, because it has misinterpreted its situation.
Its power position is not what it thinks it is.
China's actions have the most important effect of coalescing its enemies.
Actually creating enemies.
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About Turkey -- Have you been following history for the past 200 years at all????
The Arabs HATE the Turks. Arabs will NOT allow themselves to be ruled by Turks.
Egypt and Iraq consider themselves as older civilizations, and will resist Turkey.
You make a profoundly stupid assumption that just because a nation is a "failed state",
that it will be easy pickings for a strong neighbor to conquer, govern, and exploit it.
DO you really think Turkey can regain power over the Balkan states??
Do you really think Turkey can regain power over the Caucasus states of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia??
Do you really think that Turkey can take over and control Iraq??
ARE you NUTS??? What are you smoking??
Regarding Iran taking over Iraq -- Mesopotamia has fought the mountain tribes of Iran since 1500 BC.
Iran will not be able to conquer Iraq.
HOWEVER, I see Iraq falling under Iran's sphere of influence. ;
BUT, as Iraq's government stabilizes, which will happen, it will become more confident. and less open to external influence.
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China's problem is NOT worse than I think.
Normally, when we talk about market collapses, recessions, market corrections, etc.
we all make an unstated assumption.
The assumption we make is that the economy, institutions, and foundation of that society are constant.
In this case, China's very foundation is crumbling.
Local and provincial governments cannot raise money, and have been paying employees 50% wages.
Banks have been freezing bank accounts. Millions have lost their savings and are being impoverished.
This free-fall collapse of China has just started.
It will end, I think, with the shattering of the CCP.
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I watched this again.
It stills strikes me as incredibly stupid.
It presents China as being able to rain all kinds of damage down on Taiwan,
with Taiwan not responding.
How is that realistic???
Once China starts the attack ----
Taiwan's missiles have the range to hit China's naval bases and ports.
Taiwan's missiles would strike the Chinese invasion fleet before it even leaves port.
Taiwan's missiles will destroy the container ports of China, that China needs for its economy.
If Taiwan is smart, they will sink some the larger container ships in all the ports.
That would send a clear message to all merchant ships to not go to China's ports.
After that, ANY merchant ship coming to China, including tankers, should be sunk.
How will China react when it cannot get oil imports?? Or, ship out goods to customer countries??
A quick victory by China is almost impossible, IMO.
A long war favors Taiwan.
Being a democracy, Taiwan's government has the support of its citizens.
China, being an autocracy, has only conditional support of the Chinese people.
The CCP only retains power ON THE CONDITION that they deliver prosperity.
I think a war to conquer Taiwan would be the end of the CCP.
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Democracy is fragile,IMO, until it has deep roots. Turkey and Eastern Europe don't have those roots. Most democratic countries today don't have those roots. They will take time.
On the other hand, autocratic countries have demonstrations and pressure to be one more democratic, like Iran, Egypt, China, Tunisia, etc.
Korea, Philippines, and Taiwan now have strong democracies and once had dictators.
When China and the CCP collapse, authoritarianism will be discredited....finally.
I hope.
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Sorry, Netherlands is not a workable model on how we can deal with sea level rise.
1. Netherlands is a result of land reclamation. It does not deal with sea level rise. In fact, the Netherlands system assumes an unchanging sea level.
2. As sea levels rise 6 feet by 2100, and then 16+ feet by 2200, the Netherlands type technology will be overcome, without huge investment.
3. Many areas, like Florida, do not have the land or geography that would make a Netherlands approach feasible. New York City might be helped by a Dutch system for a few hundred years. But, Florida can be helped at all - the sea water goes through the ground like water through a sponge.
4. Few countries, cities or regions will have the capital needed even if the Dutch system can be be used.
5. Most major coastal cities of the world cannot be saved -- Alexandria, New Orleans, Venice, Shanghai, Calcutta, Ho Chi Minh City, Rangoon, Lagos, Charleston SC, Savannah GA, Marseilles, St. Petersburg, Amsterdam, Karachi, Mumbai, and many others will not survive until 2200. Some will be destroyed by 2100, with only a 5' or 6' rise.
6. In 300 years, the shapes of continents will be changed. Consider that all the ports of 1700, are still used today. By 2300, ALL current ports will be abandoned - moved to higher ground.
7. The process of sea level rise will continue until a new stable climate is achieved. 3.5 mya, in the Pliocene, oceans were 70 feet deeper with CO2 levels about 400ppm. We are currently at 410ppm, rising at 2ppm/yr. By 2100, CO2 levels will be over 600ppm. Levels this high have not been seen since the time of T-Rex, 65 mya, and there WAS NO POLAR ICE then.
8. CO2 levels of 600ppm will mean the loss of ALL POLAR ICE, which results in oceans 220 feet deeper. Vicksburg becomes an ocean port. All coastal cities go deep under water.
9. Melting of the polar ice will take between 500 to 2000 years. Some think pretty quick, while most climatologists think it will take several thousand years. However, one thing has been consistent - the climate scientists keep underestimating the speed and impact of global warming. So, I don't put much faith in their long time line projection I feel it will llikely be less than 1000 years.
I don't really know, so I will just have to hang around to see what happens. See you in the year 2500.
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China's collapse will be much worse than expected, or even conceived.
You see, we are NOT seeing a cyclical decline or collapse which will come back.
We are witnessing the complete breakdown of institutions in the Chinese economy.
1. Local governments are going bankrupt. Real estate development was their source of funds, and that has collapsed.
2. The banking system is collapsing. Not a few banks. Most of the banks will go under, IMO.
They cannot support the debts of the government, companies, and the citizens.
3. The CCP will not have the resources needed to enforce the level of suppression and control they will need to control the angry citizens.
4. I expect Xi and the CCP to increase their threats to other countries, increasing military tensions. At some point, PH, VT, or even the US will hit a Chinese ship or plane with a missile, or vice-versa -- a military stand-off, at least, will happen.
Maritime trade to China will cease when that happens.
Even a brief stoppage of maritime trade to China will be disastrous for China.
5. The internal immigrants in the cities that forged China's growth, are returning to their home villages, because they cannot find work. This will put huge strains on local governments that are going broke from the real estate collapse.
We are living through a profound time in history.
The collapse of China will be as important as the rise of Napoleon, the Russian Revolution, the Black Death, and the fall of Rome.
Whether it will be a good thing or a bad thing, we can only wait and watch.
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Human logic and feelings can sometimes be quite absurd, even silly.
For instance, recently, I couldn't find my glasses.
I looked everywhere.
I knew I had them when I came home.
They weren't here. ==> Ergo, ipso facto, someone broke into my house and stole them.
At least, a part of me felt that is what must have happened.
Now, the rational part of my brain, knew I was thinking VERY stupid.
But, the feelings, thoughts, and conclusion were there.
So, I can see how she jumped to a silly stupid conclusion.
We all will do that from time to time.
BUT, she acted on it.
Most of us, like me, stop ourselves from doing something stupid.
For me, I found my glasses. They just dropped behind the end table.
Nobody broke in. Nobody robbed me.
And, even though I was by myself the whole time,
I was still embarrassed for even having the thoughts.
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No they are not.
Most Irish, let alone others, don't know the horror of British occupation of Ireland.
In 1840, the population of Ireland was 9.5 million.
Then came the potato blight.
The corn, barley, rye, wheat, and oat crops were NOT effected.
BUT, those were cash crops, taken out of Ireland to be sold, to make British landowners rich.
The Irish were left to starve.
It was illegal to fish in our own rivers - that was punishable by death.
BY 1850, the population of Ireland was reduced to 1.5 MILLION.
Most did NOT emigrate. Most just DIED.
The Brits caused the DEATH of OVER 6 MILLION Irish.
That was not to be equaled until the Nazi Holocaust.
Don't believe??
Just look up the 1840 and 1850 population statistics of Ireland.
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All the trading nations of the world have an interest in what China is doing in the Indo-Pacific.
The post WW2 world as set up by Bretton Woods, UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Court has guaranteed free access and use of the oceans and sea lanes of the world to every nation.
True, US is the main guarantor of this free maritime trade.
But, US is not the only nation that does that.
Look at all the nations that patrol the Indian Ocean near Somalia to prevent piracy.
US, UK, France, India, Australia, and Japan have donated the use of their naval forces to patrol the area.
I think other nations did too.
China is trying to create a new maritime trade order, centered around China, and its interests being primary.
China wants to be in the position to dictate global maritime policies.
With sovereignty over the SCS, China's goal is to reduce the regional states to being vassals to China.
By controlling the SCS, China hopes to control the trade, and therefore, the economies of the regional states.
Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and others would have to do what China demands.
But, this also is a threat to all other trading nations - US, Canada, UK, EU, South America, and African states.
India is also a target of China.
India needs to cooperate more fully with other democratic developed countries to advance and protect her own interests.
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Unfortunately, in South America, they have an ignorant understanding of economics, business, and how to fund social services. IMO, this comes from European socialism.
Although Progressivism appears similar to Socialism, it differs in one very crucial area --
===> Progressivism was started by small businessmen in the Republican Party. Therefore, Progressives tend to be fiscally conservative. That is why in the US, Social Security and Medicare have been so financially successful.
Currently, growth of Progressivism (which I am, btw) has brought the debate of how expanded health care will be paid for. I am for it, but it must be done in a way that is affordable AND sustainable.
In the long run, nations, like families, can only buy what they can afford.
First, a country should strengthen and expand its economy, expanding its middle class.
Then, and only then, can significant monies be spent on social services.
A big mistake is made, I think, when poor countries try to behave like a European country with a mature economy, and then overspend on social services. Even in Europe, they seem to be having that problem in Greece and maybe Spain. That needs to be avoided. It could lead to a collapse of the economy, and the collapse of governing institutions.
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kenneth peterson Actually, US is already a Progressive country. Progressivism gave us Social Security, Medicare, National Parks, public schools, fire departments, sewers, flood control, interstate highway system, FEMA, EPA, FDA, FAA, and so much more.
The main thin Progressives are talking about now is health care for all -- which EVERY modern country in the world has. If Japan, Germany, and Chile can have it --why can't Americans???
Hear Eisenhower's (Republican President in the 50's) Cross of Iron speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04P4zPzspuI
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A country called "Germany" can never become a regional entity.
The people of neighboring states have a bad history with Germany,
will never join Germany.
However, if the people of Europe transfer their identity from their past ethnicity
to a broader European identity, then much more is possible.
Poles may never join "Germany".
Same with Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians, and French.
BUT, they all might join a Unite Europe, or a United Central Europe.
Even the Spanish, Italians, and Greeks might join a European Union.
Now, that might happen.
Doubtful, but it might.
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WOW...this video needs updating.
Since 2019, Xi has done his very best to piss everyone off.
He has made territorial claims on India, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, and RUSSIA! ! !
That's right -- Russia. China wants Siberia back.
How can China hope to make the transition to a consumption based economy by destroying its trade and diplomatic relations??
The making of arms and munitions is inefficient, and does not support economic expansion.
IMO, Xi and China are dissipating the resources and wealth that was accumulated since 1980.
Australia is turning against China -- cancelling its Darwin port deal.
China has destroyed India as a huge future growth market for China.
Even Duterte of Philippines has turned against China.
Meanwhile, US and other nations are selling arms to Taiwan.
It is now impossible for China to invade Taiwan.
I think China has peaked, and has started its decline.
This will end badly for China.
Personally, I don't think China will survive as a united country.
I expect it to fall apart into several countries.
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In today's world, we call hate & discrimination "racism".
For me, "racism" is only one way to hate.
We can hate based on religion. That is one of the oldest forms of organized hate.
In Europe, hating has been commonly done based on ethnicity.
It still exists. Brits still call Frenchmen "Frogs", for instance.
Where I grew up in Chicago - there were no "white" people.
There were Polish, Irish, Italian, Bohemian, Swedes, and Greeks.
And, they did not always get along.
Each were called names based on their ethnicity.
I see Franklins prejudices as a part of that.
We don't generally talk about or condemn ethno-centrism,
so even today, it is seen as quite acceptable.
Oddly, a person can be quite prejudiced in one way, and then be very enlightened in another -- at the same time. The dynamics of Hate, discrimination, and subjugation can be both horrific and interesting.
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One good thing about Japan's geography is that it has been able to develop with little bother from mainland troubles.
Look at how many times China has been invaded, and even conquered. China always had problems with the pastoral nomadic cultures of central Asia.
The only time a conquest was attempted was by the Mongols (yeah, I know, twice by them). Fortunately for Japanese culture, the Mongols were defeated.
Also, resources are not really important in the modern world economy,
Switzerland, Holland, Israel all have few resources, yet are wealthy, and live well.
Oil helps a bit, but does not help a modern economy that much.
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Another situation where I used my mouth, and not martial arts ---
I was 27 years old. It was New Years Eve in Chicago.
My girl and I were out celebrating. As we were walking down a narrow sidewalk, to go to another bar,
Two groups were in front of us, squaring off, and a full group fight or rumble, looked like it
was going to take place. One guy from each group were up close and in each others face.
I could not hear what they were saying, but their hate and violent intentions were evident.
My girl tightened her grip on my arm in fear, and tried pulling me away to avoid these men.
Perhaps it was the drink, or perhaps I'm an idiot.
But, I did not break my pace, and kept walking towards the groups. My girl was getting real scared.
Finally, as I got real close, I broke the personal space of the two guys arguing.
They noticed me for the first time, and turned towards me in surprise.
All the guys behind those two also looked at me. I could see surprise in their eyes, each thinking,
"Who is this asshole interrupting us??"
Well, it was almost midnight....
In my cheeriest voice, I smiled broadly, and yelled out
"Happy New Year Everybody.....HAPPY NEW YEAR".
They ALL yelled out together..."Happy New Year".
Their moods instantly changed.
The two guys parted a little, so me and my girl could walk through.
As I passed, I turned back, and yelled again ..."Happy New Year"..
They yelled it back at me again.
As I walked, I kept looking back to see what was going to happen.
Well, their anger had gone. They were then talking, and some laughing.
No fight occurred. They went on their way.
My girl looked at me with new respect.
Either that, or she was thinking I was some kind of nut.
True story.
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@yourmomslover2288 Yes...and those prototypes have EVERYTHING the production version will have, unless they see some way to improve it. BUT -- all the rivets, controls, sensors, etc are all there.
You don't say "well, its a prototype, so it wont be as stealthy, or wont be as fast, etc etc."
Again -- You people don't know what the word "prototype" means, or how it is used in military product development.
The word "prototype" is NOT a denigration. It does not mean "not yet developed". Prototype means the designs and technologies are in their final, or VERY close to their final design.
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One thing that unites US and Britain -- we both love democracy.
Of course, British democracy isn't very democratic, is it?
No Constitution. People don't directly elect the Prime Minister.
And, then Britain always has a King or Queen hanging around, doesn't it??
Of course, as Brits see it, America isn't very democratic. You don't really elect your President, do you??
You have these unknown guys, "Electors", who actually decide who is president.
And then you have that weird two party system, where one guy from a small state, Kentucky, can rule your country, and have more power than your president. How is that democratic??
So, what unites us??
We both like cheddar cheese. I think that's it.
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I believe that China has passed its Zenith now.
China's power and wealth will now enter a long downhill slide.
China has pissed on all its trading partners -- kinda stupid for an export economy, don't you think??
The CCP has become too rigid and provincial to respond wisely or well to both internal and external changes
Can you point to ANYTHING China has done, either domestically or internationally, that seem wise, subtle, or productive???
The border disputes with India were really stupid --- and POINTLESS. They achieved nothing, and what is more, they could NOT achieve anything.
China's South China Sea grab is both stupid AND clumsy. Again, achieved nothing, and could NOT have achieved anything. Is that not stupid?
China has become fickle and unreliable. Treaties can not be relied on. So, why enter into one with China???
As it declines, the internal stresses will increase, until it breaks.
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No long ago, I would have agreed that any war in the region would result in huge pressure to disengage.
Now, I am not so sure.
The world has come to the conclusion that China is very dangerous, and that its seizure of the SCS
cannot be allowed. I think world leading nations, like US, UK, Japan, and France think that China's wings must be clipped.
IF a war broke out between India and China, those nations would likely back India. They might even join as allies, since a China victory over India would be disastrous for them.
They would likely let India do the fighting, but they would assist greatly with supplies, armaments, missiles, planes, and most of all -- reconnaissance and intelligence. India would be fully aware of the disposition of all of China's assets.
India own satellites would be augmented by info from US, Japan, UK, France, etc.
US navy would protect India's Indian Ocean front. China would be thwarted from mounting any effective operations there.
Its bases in Pakistan, Iran, and Djibouti would be neutralized.
India would be able to focus on the Himalayan front, where I think India holds major, even decisive, advantages.
1. I think India's training is superior.
2. India has troops trained for high mountain combat. I don't think China has done that very much.
3. China's PLA is riddled with corruption, IMO. Although China has bought a lot of new weapons ---
I doubt it has trained with them, or maintained them well. Most importantly, I doubt China has analyzed and updated its doctrine to accommodate the new weapons. Why? Simple, that takes a huge amount of war gaming, training, and analysis. I doubt China has done that. Such war gaming and training cannot be hidden.
4. In the event of any India/China war, the Indian Ocean would be kept open for maritime trade for India and the world.
MEANWHILE -- the South & East China Seas would be shut down. China's maritime trade would cease to exist.
China's economy would be severely hit, while India's economy would function nicely.
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Very well said. Thank you.
About propaganda ---
Dictatorships, I think, try to keep the truth and lies separate.
Truth for themselves - lies for their party and the people.
Lies for their party members, to keep them motivated and enthralled.
Lies for the people, for obvious reasons.
The KGB in Russia, I think tried to keep truth & lies separated.
However, the way China is structured, I don't think they have any mechanism
for keeping truth & lies separated.
That means that overly patriotic pilots, captains, or bureaucrats
will likely overstep their orders someday
to sink an American ship, or shoot down a Taiwanese plane,
or attack India.
And, in this way, a shooting war will start.
It seems so clear to me. I don't see how it can be avoided.
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I totally agree.
FYI.. Taiwan has an arsenal of domestically designed and produced quality missiles that can shoot down planes, sink boats, and attack mainland China. Taiwan has missiles that can go at least 600 miles.
Taiwan has been producing these missiles for the last 30 years.
Taiwan has excellent engineers to produce sophisticated radars, and jamming devices.
I doubt Taiwan's missiles can be easily defeated with ECM, since I expect them to have ECCM.
The Taiwan Strait has high sea states, that is, it is not very calm usually.
Amphibious assaults are difficult. Most of China's troop ships will be sunk.
People think that just China is big, that it will have an easy time, and will just walk into Taiwan.
The dangerous part is that it is possible that the CCP believes its own propaganda.
After all, who has the courage to tell Xi that he is wrong???
The hubris and self-delusion of the CCP is what may lead it to war.
That is the problem with being "logical" and "rational". You are assuming people will think rationally.
If Hitler was rational, he would never had started WW2.
If Kaiser Wilhelm was logical, he never would have given carte blanche to Austria in 1913.
If Napoleon was rational he would never had invaded Russia.
I don't think logic or rationality are good predictors of military policymaking.
But, China will lose if they try it.
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One more point about CSIS and war simulations.....
US has a history, a long history, of fear mongering to increase defense spending.
In the 50's and 60's, we had the missile gap, the bomber gap, and the tank gap.
Billions had to be spent on new weapons IN A HURRY, because the Soviet Union
was so far ahead of us -- we were told.
Well, in actuality, there were no bomber, missile, or tank gaps.
It is probably good that we developed the B-52, the Minuteman, and the Abrams tanks.
But, we didn't need the lies.
The US government does not trust the American people to support the military unless they are scared out of their wits.
The current Taiwan and SCS situation with China is the same.
China is being built up as a giant, when in reality,
it is no such thing.
China has many problems with its military.
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One more point, the "Belt And Road" initiative will fail. The main purpose of it seems to be to get nations to become debt slaves to China - essentially modern day colonies.
Well, that won't work. National loans can be easily denied, UNLESS the threat of Chinese military force exists to force countries to pay their debts to China.
Well, China cannot force nations in Africa to pay their debts. US, India, and EU will not allow China to use its military to enforce loan collection.
Besides, the colonial powers tried that on their colonies, and it didn't work then. And, it won't work for China, either.
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You have a traditional Indian attitude. It is stupid, but it is traditional.
Alliances can be of great use. Countries have used alliances since ancient times.
Germany & Japan were defeated using alliances. Despite the size and power of the US,
we see alliances as crucial to achieving long term aims.
The Soviet Union was defeated because of NATO, not just by US might.
If China is to be contained, AND persuaded NOT to go to war,
China must be faced with an overwhelming power of an adversary.
The US by itself may not be able to demonstrate that power.
India definitely cannot demonstrate that power.
Japan by itself cannot.
Australia by itself cannot.
Philippines cannot.
HOWEVER, if all these countries allied themselves to support each other
in case China went to war with any one of them, China would be chastened.
Would China dare attack India in Ladakh, or anywhere,
if such an attack could result in a war with not only India,
but also US, Japan, Australia, and Philippines??
Couldn't Indians sleep better knowing that the alliance protects them??
Japanese, Australians, Filipinos, and Americans would all sleep a bit better, too.
That is how alliances can work.
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This reminds me of how the current American military achieved its permanence.
In 1946 and 1947, the American military was demobilizing from WW2.
The troops were being let go, to go back home, get jobs, and the US economy transform back into a peace time economy.
Ships, planes, tanks and much more were scrapped or sold off.
Then the Korean War happened, and the US was caught off guard, not prepared.
US military had to re-establish itself, and reverse its plans to shrink to a small army, like it always had during peace.
It was then, that the B-52, B-58 Hustler, M-48 then M-60 tanks, Forrestal and future super carriers, all got started. It was then that the US became committed to having a large permanent standing army.
Now, Europe and NATO will be committed to a large standing military.
This also may have the effect of unifying the EU. Maybe.
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Whoa -- not CSIS again.
IMO, they are not competent.
The CSIS "study" makes assertions, but does not back them up.
What is more, the assertions are idiotic.
For example, it asserts the US will lose several nuclear subs.'
Oh yeah?? How? China cannot locate any of our subs underwater.
How is China supposed to target and kill them??
Next, it claims US will lose several carriers.
Again, HOW?? The US is NOT going to put our carrier groups within the first island chain -- for obvious reasons.
China may have missiles capable of getting through our ECM systems, but I doubt that.
China has NOT shown that any of its systems are able of defeating ours.
HOWEVER - that is actually beside the point.
WHY?? Simple -- why would Japan or US be involved at all??
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will NOT survive the advanced anti-ship missiles Taiwan has.
Taiwan makes the advanced chips, and has the techs that can put them into their HF missiles.
The HF2 and HF3 can take out ANY Chinese ship. How will their ships survive the hundreds of missiles Taiwan has??
NEXT -- the HF-2e missile is long range and precise -- it can hit targets in EVERY Chinese port.
What makes you even think all the Chinese ships will be able to put to sea to start the invasion???
Taiwan has the means to destroy China's navy with their missiles.
Can China intercept and defeat Taiwan's missiles??
Maybe -- but not all of them. Only a few of China's ships might have sophisticated anti-missile tech.
But, those systems can be defeated with multiple missiles.
Now, the question becomes -- how many missiles does Taiwan have?
AND, how effective are their ECCM systems??
Well, Taiwan has been making its missiles for over 20 years now.
I expect them to have thousands, IMO.
We know they have several hundred Harpoons.
We also know that Taiwan has increased its defense spending a lot recently.
The CSIS study seemed to me to be a scare tactic to induce increased defense spending by the US.
BTW -- don't forget China has no answer to the F-35's of US & Japan.
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Comments often say "India has nothing to fear."
That is not the point, IMO.
You are dealing with China, if you don't fear, then you are an idiot.
But, India also has no choice but defend itself.
Also, India is strong now, and China should also fear, or else it is being an idiot.
An Indo-China war would hurt both countries badly. Many would die.
However, India is a much more stable and resilient government and country than China.
India would cope and survive the resulting misery.
China and the CCP may not. The CCP will not likely survive if the Chinese suffer extreme misery again.
BTW - in case of military conflict, I think India would prevail, and prevail quite easily, I think.
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I find it interesting that no one talks about the truly big picture -- Russia vs China.
By comparison, the Ukraine War is a side show.
Over the past 2000 years -- the west was invaded from Asia many times, and China was invaded from the west many times.
Mongols occupied Russia for 200 years.
Later, Russia took much of China's Siberian lands from it
There have been border clashes.
Now for the interesting part ----
China claims to be an Arctic power. How?? it is nowhere near the Arctic.
Well, it would be if it got Siberia back.
Last summer, an editorial in Global Times, a mouthpiece for the CCP,
claimed that Vladivostok should be reclaimed by China.
Now, until Putin showed how rotten and hollow the Russian military is,
no one would have thought that China would have the power to take Siberia from Russia.
But, Putin, in his grand stupidity, has shown how pathetic the Russian army is,
so, now the idea of China taking Siberia, or a least a portion of it, is reasonable.
It is possible.
IMO -- China has a much better chance of a successful invasion of Siberia -- possible.
While China's chances of having a successful invasion of Taiwan are between impossible and suicidal.
For me, the really big question is the Sino-Russian rivalry for Asia.
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Very poor analysis.
1. Frigates are NOT blue water vessels. Most China's ships are coastal.
2. China does NOT have even ONE ship, the US would call a carrier. China's "carrier" are most similar to LHA's. Without CATOBAR, they cannot launch fully loaded planes, fully fueled.
3. China does not have even ONE naval base in Pacific, outside of what they have in China itself. The US is returning to Subic Bay, AND building a new base at Palau. Of course, the US still has Yokohama, Wake Island, Guam, and Hawaii.
4. China has NO ALLIES. The US has regional allies in Japan, Philippines, ROK, Australia, (shh, Taiwan, too, but don't tell anyone.)
5. An anti-China alliance is developing with India.
To assess military power, you cannot merely count ships, planes, and guns. There is more to power than that.
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As I study American History, I see how British culture and institutions were established here.
Colonial Americans were British subjects.
OK...so why, was the British aristocracy not extended to the colonies?? Why were no Americans knighted, or made Earls or Dukes?? In Britain, a successful general would be knighted, the way Lord Nelson became a Lord.
Why no British Aristocratic titles in the US?
By extension, the same question goes to Canada, Australia, etc.
Seems to me, that if Britain had extended aristocratic honors and titles to its various colonies, a deeper loyalty might have been established.
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The US/Saudi relationship WILL fall apart. It is inevitable.
To understand why, you have to first understand why it started in the first place, and then what is happening to end it.
1. Why it started -- simple, it was about the oil.
The American and world economy required oil to function. So, the American oil companies came in, developed the oil, and set up ARAMCO (Arab American Oil Company.). It was a symbiotic relationship, benefitting both.
2. It has been a rocky, but mostly good relationship for both. BUT...now two things have happened.
3. The development of fracking in the US has made the US independent of Saudi, and all imported oil (almost). Fracking has also opened up all kinds of oil deposits worldwide, so oil has become cheap, and it will remain cheap, IMO (unless the market is manipulated.).
4. The most serious development, though, is renewable energy. Experts argue about when "Peak Oil Demand" will happen, but ALL agree that it will happen. After that, oil demand will decline inexorably to be quite low. Whether it takes 30 years, or 50 years, or 100 years, eventually almost ALL transport will be electrical or renewables, and ALL power plants will be renewable energy power plants.
5. With little demand for oil, the US and Europe won't care what happens to Saudi Arabia, or the Saudi family.
Ever wonder why countries like Cambodia, or Congo, or Columbia, or Niger, or many other countries can fall into chaos and US & EU don't do anything --- while, if Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait, or Libya, or other oil nation gets in trouble, and the whole world sits up and takes notice?? Well, it is all about the oil.
When oil means nothing, the oil countries will be unimportant.
SO, the US/Saudi relationship is on borrowed time.
It WILL end. The process cannot be stopped, IMO.
The only question is how fast it will deteriorate, how it will end, and what the new relationship will be like?
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@l.m2517 The future importance of embassies is a whole other topic. Internet and modern communication will have its impact.
I recently renewed my passport while out of the country, and that was done at an American embassy. So, they still have some use.
Also, because it is an act of war, ALL treaties, agreements, and protocols can be ended.
In this case, Mexico ended relations, shutting down its embassy in Ecuador, and shutting down Ecuador's embassy in Mexico.
I did read in the press Ecuador's justification -- and its wrong. The Ecuadoran official either lies, or is as dumb as a rock.
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BTW...neither Stalin nor Mao implemented Communism.
According to the books "Russia under the Old Regime", and "Russia Under the New Regim", Pipes makes a very good thesis
that Stalin merely implemented a new version of Tsarism.
Similarly, Mao implemented a version of Imperial rule.
Now, this makes sense because Stalin and Mao could only create a government that they were familiar with.
Stalin familiar with Tsarism, and Mao familiar with Chinese Imperial rule.
Look the CCP and Xi, note how they have an emperor's view of laws, courts, and prisons. They have no concept of Rule Of Law.
See how Xi demands an accused person to be released by Canada's government. The Prime Minister does not have the authority to do that. Yet, they demand that release, thinking that it is really a political situation.
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Am I supposed to feel sorry for these hateful people that support kidnapping children, starving and mistreating immigrants, and killing thousands of Puerto Ricans by denying them aid and assistance??
Sorry, I do not feel sorry for them.
If any were hospitalized, or even died, I not only don't care -- I celebrate.
These brutal people have terrorized the country.
They support private armed militias threatening democratic voters
They support eliminating polling locations in minority or democratic areas.
As far as I am concerned, let them drink bleach that Trump recommends, or get pneumonia waiting for Trump to speak.
The more right wing nut cases die, the happier I will fell.
That may be harsh, but that is how I feel.,
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I think the answer is simpler. 1 turret has 360 degree coverage. If more than 1 turret, then each get in the way of the other - so neither has 360 coverage. This is obviously less efficient, while increasing cost and crew.
Another option, is to have a turret with an added fixed gun, usually larger. This was on the Grant tank, and on the French Char B. This creates tactical limitations, reducing effectiveness.
On a ship, it is different. Due to the central superstructure, a turret on a battleship cannot have 360 degree coverage, so multiple turrets are required - at least one at the bow, and one at the stern.
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This video makes the invasion of Taiwan look so simple. IT ISN'T.
1. For a successful invasion, total air dominance is needed...NOT just air superiority. That would be difficult.
2. All the missiles that China has will NOT knock out all that Taiwan has. Taiwan only needs a few cruise missiles to sink a few of those shiny new amphibious ships to make China have a bad day.
3. The invasion forces that come by ship will be sitting ducks. Taiwan should be able to sink those fairly simply. How will China feel when 20,000o+ troops are at the bottom of Taiwan strait.
4. In general, for offensive operations, you need two or more times your enemy to succeed. In amphibious operations, China will need, at least, ten times what Taiwan has.
5. Amphibious warfare is the most complicated type to conduct. China has NO wartime experience in amphibious warfare. Where will it get it?? Maybe watching old American John Wayne films, LOL. IF the invasion of Taiwan is its first amphibious operations, then China will lose...and lose badly.
6. I expect Taiwan to get Brahmos missiles soon. India has sold them to Vietnam and Philippines. I don't see any reason why India would not sell them to Taiwan. Brahmos missiles negate China's navy, for Brahmos missiles can sink ANY chinese ship, and China has no defense for them.
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I had never looked into the history of Botswana. I regret that.
Seretse Khama should go down as one of the greatest leaders of all time.
To found a nation, establish the institutions of democracy, and the create the customs and attitudes of democracy
in a land with no history of nationhood, and no traditions of democracy is absolutely stunning.
George Washington was great -- but the English colonies already had the institutions and customs of democracy.
Democracy was in our culture already.
Nations where democracy is not of their culture, like Turkey or Pakistan, have a very hard time keeping a democracy.
The people of those nations do not understand democracy. They are used to strong man rule, so that is what they get.
Same in Russia and China. Very difficult to get democracy in the lands of the Tsars and Emperors.
Still, those nations did know governmental rule, bureaucracies, and national identity.
Botswana started from an even more basic level.
For me, that increases my opinion of Seretse Kharma.
He was a great leader.
Botswana is right to be very proud of him.
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The profound observation of Lambert seems to be the connection between representative government, and being a Sea State.
Athens, Venice, Netherlands, England, and the US I posit are too many to dismiss this proposition as coincidence.
There is something about ocean borne trade that compels representative government.
While, continental trade compels centralized authoritarian government.
All the states involved in the Silk Road, and other trans-continental trade, were all imperial governments, or were trending that way.
China, Russia, Persia, Sassanid, Byzantine, Ottoman, and so many others, all followed the same pattern.
Even the states of Africa involved in the trans-Saharan caravans, all were centralized with dynastic rule.
Of course, things are more complicated than that. Switzerland has representative government, and it is definitely NOT a sea power.
The other observation is the ALL the examples of representative government are all in Europe. Asia and Africa had no representative governments, until UK and Netherlands brought them. Now, some Native American tribes had representative government - namely the Iroquois and Illinois Confederacies. In fact, the concept of the Eternal Flame that burns in Arlington Cemetery came from the Iroquois. The Iroquois Confederacy inspired Benjamin Franklin to propose the United States in 1756.
Those Native America tribes were not sea powers in any way, yet they had a representative form of government, with no kings or inherited dynastic rule.
Like I said -- history, societies, and cultures are always more complicated than they may seem at first.
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Actually, I see more opportunity for the US & Europe to benefit from helping countries around the world cope with climate change. When has Russia helped others?? Russia has no tradition of foreign aid and assistance, except as a dominating power with its satellites.
When people from South East Asia, China, Africa, and South America emigrate??? Where will they go? Russia? That's laughable.
In the short run, refugees may be problem, causing strains and dislocations. BUT, in the long run, they create a bond between the nations.
The US has bonds with Germany, Ireland, Philippines, Greece, Italy, and so many other countries because of the immigrants from those countries whose descendants now live here.
Will Russia ever have that?? Will they welcome or allow that?? Never.
Global Warming COULD be a game changer for Russia -- but it won't be.
Putin is too wedded to reviving the Tsarist past. Russia is too myopic, and inflexible.
If an opportunity, it will be an opportunity lost.
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@christopherhamlin6139 Yes, I do.
And, if the US did that, like I said about Japan, I think it would go a long way to repairing our relations with the people and nations of the region.
Personally, I have found that when I screwed up and hurt people, that apologizing was a good thing to do.
When you recognize your own screw up, and admit you were wrong, I have found most people to be quite forgiving.
So, when nations do that, I think they should do the same. Does that sound right to you?
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The planet is warming. Climate change is real. Oceans will rise.
However, I do not yet accept that the planet will get dryer. Consider -- in the Cretaceous, there were no polar ice caps. Oceans were deeper, and CO2 was over 600ppm. BUT, the planet was wetter, not dryer.
Further consider -- Warmer air, holds more moisture. Thus, overall global rainfall should increase.
Moreover, a slower, more wavy jet stream, distributes storms more erratically, actually preventing long term deserts to form. But, also increasing chance for local droughts.
So, first explain why the Cretaceous was not dryer, and then explain the process of how an atmosphere with more water will result in a dryer planet. Explain those points, and I will accept the forecast of a dryer future climate.
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One more question -- the Romans kept producing quality generals one after the other. The Roman generals were very flexible in solving the problems of different opponents and different geographies. (Carthage, Phyrrus, Gauls, Macedon, etc.) You don't see that analytical approach again until the development of military schools, like West Point, Sandhurst, etc. There is no Roman text like Clausewitz's "On War" book, but they must have had something like that. The Romans understood generalship as an academic discipline with principles, with both standard and exceptional applications of them.
One thing that made the Romans so amazing is that they would rebound from a defeat, with new tactics to counter a method or weapon used to defeat them. Scipio learned how to counter Hannibal's elephants, and how to defeat his double envelopment. Earlier, Romans developed devices to give them victory at sea.
[I will always wonder how the Mongol Golden Horde would have fared, if it was the Romans of Scipio or Marius and the Republic they met, and not the divided kingdoms of Medieval Europe. [I discount the non-Roman legions of the late empire. They had lost their Roman qualities, IMO.]
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Another way of looking at it --- autocratic or imperial rule eventually becomes sclerotic, that is, very rigid.
This sclerosis makes it impossible to adjust or adapt to the changes, both inside and outside of the country.
These stresses set in play forces that mean the transformation of the country. It may fall apart, or a whole new government type may be formed.
For instance, in the British American colonies, the freeing of a black slave in England in 1772 (the famous Somerset case), set in motion forces that ended up in the American Revolution.
Ironic that the French support of the American Revolution set in motion the forces that ended in the French Revolution.
Both were critical events in the establishment of the current world order, where democracies, rule of law, freedom, and equality are held as universal.
China wants to change the modern world. China wants to end rule of law. China wants their decrees and demands to be rules and laws of the world. That is, China wants "rule by fiat" to be the new world order, with China making the rules.
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Recession?? Don't be silly. It will be much worse than that -- it will be a depression.
What's the diff you ask??
Well, a recession typically from an imbalance, like to much inventory. Companies reduce production and/or customers reduce buying.
A depression, however, is MUCH worse. It comes when the economy receives body blows that hurt it deeply.
Like the bank closures and high tariffs of the 1930's.
We almost had a depression 2008 with the closure of so many banks. Obama's quick acting, and the resilience of the system kept it only a severe recession.
The Trump tariff wall combined with the external tariff wall built around us by Canada, Mexico, EU, and our other trading "partners" will cause a crash of the economy along with the collapse of major companies and industries.
Hence, we will have a depression, NOT a recession.
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As an older voter, 71, I support Bernie.
To get older voters, Bernie must make them understand that he will protect or expand Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
Bernie should
1. Attack the Republican efforts to limit healthcare, and to turn Social Security over to Wall Street.
He must also attack the corporatist Democrats as being open to "compromise" with the Republicans.
2. Equate "centrist" Democrats with being "corporatist" Democrats. Imply that Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are traitors to the middle class. Suggest that they will "compromise" with Republicans. Don't forget, Biden said he would love to have a Republican on his ticket.
3. Keep attacking the idea of Democrats taking money from corporate PACs and from Billionaires.
In the end, Bernie must make clear that he is the best candidate to protect the rights and opportunities of the average American.
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The Ukraine War changed everything.
For decades, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran have been threatening other countries.
All this time, those threats were regarded as mere rhetoric being used for domestic propaganda.
That is, the threats were not taken as real. Even as Russia gathered troops on Ukraine's border, everyone, including Ukraine, did not believe Russia would actually attack.
NOW -- the rhetoric of China and North Korea can no longer be dismissed.
Russia is seen as a present and real danger.
SO, everyone is arming up. European countries and Asian countries are all buying lots of new stuff.
Tanks, jets, helicopters, ships, subs, missiles, artillery, rifles, etc. and etc. are all being acquired.
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The US is not nearly as distracted as it may seem.
Remember, the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl did NOT distract us from the coming of WW2.
The US has had recent supply deals with Taiwan to supply Harpoon missiles, F-16 jets, AGM-88 missiles, radars, reconnaissance planes, training, and more.
PLUS, Taiwan has some excellent domestically developed missiles, including long range cruise missiles.
China's chance of successfully invading Taiwan is about as close to zero as it can be.
Would Xi survive a failed invasion where 30+ ships are sunk, and 50,000 PLA troops lie at the bottom of the sea???
I doubt it.
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Thank you. You just supported my hypothesis that current GW will make Earth wetter, not drier. I suspect that increased water cycle will result in bringing rain to the great deserts of the world. Well, that combined with the increased meandering of the jet stream.
So, in 2100, I expect the world to be 2 to 3 degrees Centigrade warmer than today. I expect oceans to be about 5 to 8 ft deeper.
I also expect mankind to have been a bit late in responding to the GW process. Therefor, methane clathrates will have unleashed much of their methane into the atmosphere. The Holocene will be done, and the Anthropocene just beginning to begin. I expect oceans to rise at least 70 ft, to eventually match the levels of the Pliocene, at a minimum.
[Since the Pliocene ocean levels were done with CO2 at about 400ppm, and we have already passed that, probably to reach 700ppm by 2100, PLUS a huge increase in methane, which did not happen during the Pliocene, a complete melting of the polar ice caps is probable, IMO.]
Considering paleoclimatological data, I am surprised that climatologists maintain the idea that the Earth will get drier as the climate warms. That was not the case during the Mesozoic, and I do not see why it should be the case this time.
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Ukraine will win because Russia cannot.
In this war, Ukraine will win by surviving.
The war will continue until Putin and Russia say, "enough".
It might be a week, or a month, or a year, and possibly longer.
However long it takes, one thing we now know ----
Russia does not have the resources to defeat & occupy Ukraine.
Even if Kyev falls, the war continues.
Zelensky is a bold and brave leader, but even if he dies,
the war will continue.
Ukrainians will not give up.
We now know this.
If they don't give up, they cannot be defeated.
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China is choosing poverty.
After Deng, China decided to mostly allow market forces to operate.
This allowed China's economy to grow amazingly fast and large.
It was incredible.
But, Xi and the CCP have decided to not allow market forces to operate.
They think they can force the economy to do what they want by fiat -
telling banks, companies, and people what to do.
That is not how economies operate.
So, companies flee China. Banks are either closing, or not giving money to depositors.
Stores are closing. Entire malls are shutting down. Shopping districts are being deserted.
Meanwhile, China's foreign policy still threatens war, and is generally prickly at best.
China is slowly being expelled from the world economy.
Countries are buying from new factories in India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other places
as fast as they can be built. It is happening incredibly fast.
World trade patterns by 2030, will be profoundly changed from those in 2020.
This is the path that China has chosen.
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In the US, people were once expected to work 10 hours a day, and 1/2 day on Saturday.
Then came the labor movement.
The 5 day, 40 hour work week was established.
In the US, people can organize, and demonstrate.
Even though demonstrations may be suppressed, like the Haymarket Riot in Chicago,
overall, we have ways to organize and infuse our wishes into the political process.
China has none of that.
Too bad.
China has no way of growing politically, or administratively.
Despite its great advancements in the last 40 years,
China is headed for a political and economic crash.
It will crash, because it has no mechanisms for changing course.
China has no mechanism for gathering ideas,
debating their merits, and setting a new course in a rational way.
The only way China can change course, is for someone to out-maneuver
its current boss. That person, or small cadre, then set their directions with
little input from the country. Their decisions are not likely to be correct,
ending in good results.
The one-child policy and wolf warrior diplomacy are two examples of
remarkably ignorant and stupid leadership.
In any other country, a failing policy is more quickly identified and changed.
In China, failing policies become institutionalized, making them extremely difficult
to change, or even ameliorate slightly.
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Can China's birth rate support China's growth to super power??
Yes, of course. China still has many more births than the US, which is a super power.
BUT, will it?
The answer is NO.
Demographics is a problem for China.
It is not THE problem for China, though.
The problem is China's system, specifically the CCP's need to hold total power.
That need to control is what made it turn on its successful companies.
If China is ever to become a super power, it needed its companies to continue growing and entering new markets around the world.
China has attacked its own companies, and has destroyed the ability of many to compete globally.
Moreover, China's aggressive wolf warrior diplomacy has made it unwelcome around the world.
Its fishing fleet aggression is causing problems with many countries - Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia locally, but also countries far away like Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Argentina, etc.
These issues and others will prevent China from becoming a super power.
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Where did you get all this misinformation??
It is just plain WRONG.
Consider - as the Earth warms, the oceans warm, and more water VAPOR goes into the atmosphere.
THEREFORE -- there will be stronger and more devastating rainstorms.
The jet streams will hardly exist, so storm tracks will be unpredictable.
For an idea, read about the climate during the Cretaceous. The Earth was NOT a big desert back then.
It was WET due to increased water cycle.
IMO, what you are reporting is incompetent extrapolations of the current effects of global warming.
We are experiencing a desertification in the American Southwest, the Sahara, Australia, and some other places.
But, that will NOT continue, IMO, as the water vapor rises and the jet streams collapse.
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The number of sorties per 24/hrs is critical. The Gripen takes only 10 minutes to re-fuel and re-arm. That is an incredibly short turn around time. With the development costs paid, current Gripens can be bought for about $30M each, I believe. That is pretty cheap.
It may not have all the stealth that an F-35 has, but the majority of situations an air force faces do not require that. It is also important to have numbers. For instance, the F-22 is a great plane, but with only 190 of them, that is almost worthless if the US ever needed them in a war. For regional, targeted, brief engagements, only a few may be adequate.
However, the F-35 has really dropped in price to about $75M each. Is it twice as useful as the Gripen? I wonder.
Also, if Canada were to use them together, it would be nice if they networked battle info for tracking, targeting, and killing. I wonder if they can do that?
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Dire news.
But, it is actually much worse than that, IMO.
Consider -- CO2 is at 420ppm, rising 2.5ppm per year.
It was rising 1ppm/yr about 15 years ago.
That means that nature is supplying about 1 p;pm/yr of CO2.
That means that even if we stopped ALL CO2 emissions right now,
that CO2 levels would continue to rise.
CO2 is about 419ppm for August 2023. By 2100, it will be well over 550ppm, conservatively extrapolating.
The Earth has not seen CO2 levels that high since the Cretaceous, when dinosaurs roamed the Earth, and there was NO ICE at the poles.
IF the polar ice completely melts, then oceans become 200+ feet deeper.
You can imagine the cities and land that would disappear.
People would be forced to move -- if they can.
Farmland would be lost.
Sorry TYT, it is a lot worse than you think,
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It is now September 2020, and an update to this topic needs to be done.
Since this video, US, India, Japan, and Australia have formed the Quad, and are in the process of decoupling from China to some degree.
Manufacturers are moving their operations out of China at an accelerating rate. Moving most of it to other regional nations, including Vietnam and India. Japan is paying its companies to move out of China.
As replacements for Chinese components are found or developed, this process will continue.
This should result in a shrinkage or decrease in China's GDP. Unemployment should grow, as well.
US Navy has visited Vietnam. How is that relationship growing??
India has sold Brahmos & Akash missiles to Vietnam and Philippines..
Japan has F-35 jets. India is getting P8 Poseidons.
There are more developments, all of which change the strategic environment.
Meanwhile, China has made more ships and planes since this video was created.
So, what is the overall balance now??
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You have confidence in Islam??
Are you nuts??
The primary field of study in Arab Universities is still Islamic Studies.
Islam is still very anti-intellectual, anti-learning.
Islam is also anti-cosmopolitan, which makes it a horrible religion for governing a modern state.
Non-Islam minorities are recriminated by the laws and courts in Muslim majority countries.
Even supposedly "liberal" Islamic countries, like Indonesia, and Malaysia, there is deep discrimination.
Without oil, the Muslim world would be impoverished.
There is no Muslim nation that has the dynamism that Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea have.
In 20 years, the oil boom will be over. Renewable energy will power our societies.
Without oil, the Islamic world will sink into poverty, ignorance, instability, and violence.
With oil losing its strategic value, no one will care.
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To counter China, all the regional countries, US, UK, and EU should create a defensive alliance committed to freedom in the SCS.
ANY stoppage or interference with free trade in the SCS by China should be considered and ACT OF WAR!!!!
That is the only way to make China listen.
Taking them to the World Court is pointless. Protests and lectures are useless.
China, like Putin, only respects naked power.
Don't forget - India, Japan, Vietnam, and the US already stage annual joint naval exercises. That is very close to a formal alliance.
BTW...the regional countries that should be in this defensive alliance are India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. Taiwan would be a coordinating or cooperating state - not officially in the alliance.
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The real test for our democracy and form of government is what happens after Trump and his gang are removed.
How will the Democrats clean house??
Will they "forgive and forget", like the way Nixon was pardoned and his crimes excused.
Will Trump be excused?
Will future presidents be allowed to have unrecorded meetings with foreign rulers?
Will future politicians be allowed to use foreign influence to secure the presidency, and control over our government??
Will foreign governments continue to be allowed to shape our elections, and "choose" our leaders??
If we allow that, then we are lost.
Rulers of totalitarian governments, such as Xi and Putin, cannot stand democracies, for they are the true threat to their
continued existence.
Putin and Xi are rivals, even enemies, but both are more fearful of the growing democratic forces among their peoples,
than they are of each other.
I wonder if our vain, shortsighted, and narrow-minded politicians will find the wisdom and courage
to make the needed changes??
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@freesk8 History is difficult.
1. We all have selective memories. We remember what we like, and suppress or forget what we don't.
2. I do not believe much of history has intentional lies in it. One problem is historians usually believe the standard telling of it.
For instance, there are aspects of the Revolutionary War that are strange, when you think about them.
But, those questions are never even recognized.
BTW. I don't believe there any "lies" in it, but incomplete truths that don't tell the whole story.
If you want to really know and understand history, you have to read different histories. And, you have to read those who challenge the usual story.
Unfortunately, the "alternative" histories usually have an axe to grind, and are more likely to make things up -- like the black revisionist histories that want to make the Egyptians black.
So, you have to be careful whatever you read.
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No matter how insulting, disrespectful, and disgusting Trump acts, Republicans continue to support him. Republicans in Congress will complain about this or that, but they always come back to justifying, accepting, and approving Trump.
But, it is understandable, since Trump voters are racist, Putin loving, healthcare haters anyway.
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The Pantheon had the largest concrete dome until modern times. It is 2,000 years old -- and still is in good condition, and is beautiful.
I see concrete bridges and highway structures in the US, that have to be rebuilt every 30 to 50 years.
We use steel re-bar, which rusts, and cracks the concrete supports. How stupid is that??
Actually genius if you want taxpayers to pay you to build them again quite frequently.
Also, here in Chicago, concrete sidewalks and other exterior concrete structures dissolve in the rain, and eventually fall apart.
YET, the Pantheon still survives. How? Well, Roman concrete was impervious to water.
Seems to me, modern concrete is crap compared to Roman concrete.
Aren't we supposed to be the smart ones??
Maybe not.
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If you look at countries that had a martial tradition -- ancient Rome, Prussia, UK, and the United States--- you will see they valued efficient use of their men, tried to win victories with the fewest casualties to their own men, valued mobility and deception.
Russia has none of that. Russia has a long military tradition, but, IMO, they don't have a martial tradition. Russia does not value training and preparedness, which ancient Rome, Prussia, the UK, and the US do.
Russia lacks the qualities required for military success.
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@bipolarbear9917 WOW. That is an impressive reply.
I agree with much of what you said, especially getting rid of the Electoral College.
However, I do NOT support proportional representation. I like "First Past the Post".
Our system here is very different from Europe. We do NOT have a Parliamentary system,.
Our party system VERY different. Our parties are very different.
Although it is said US has a two party system, this is not technically correct, IMO.
Traditionally, each state has two dominant parties.
HOWEVER, there is no formal relationship between the parties of each state.
That is, the Democratic Party of IL has nothing to do with the Democratic Party of FL.
Both parties have tried to increase the power of the central party organization by controlling funding.
Senators usually have access to their own funding sources, so they tend to be much more independent.
Congressmen -- it is a mixed bag.
The primary system we have here also gives access to outsiders. Here, the party does NOT control who can have the party label, and represent the party in a state or district.
A party favored candidate can be ousted in the primaries. That is how the Tea Party candidates, and Trump's MAGA candidates win, and increase their influence.
This is an interesting thing to analyze and talk about. It is central to the US political system, and I have not seen any discussion on it.
Thanks for the long comment.
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Of course Pakistan supports terrorism - terrorism is Islamic tradition. Consider --
The great religions of Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism, and Judaism have great leaders of peace in their histories. Christ was a pacifist, but so were St. Francis of Assisi, and other Christian leaders. Buddha himself taught peace and forgiveness. Hinduism, of course, gave us the great Mahatma Ghandi. Jews, although persecuted, never resorted to terrorism in their history.
Muslims? Well, first it was a religion of conquest, storming out of Arabia to conquer, and spreading by forced conversion.
Conquest was not enough, Islam invented constant terrorism with the creation of the Assassins. Almost from its inception, Islam has been the religion of violence. Violence was always justified because unbelievers deserve to die, in the view of Islam. Don't believe? Read the Koran. There are Suras that direct the killing of non-Muslims. And, they take those words literally.
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@vanessali1365 Disagree.
CCP does manipulate protesters, true.
But, the nations of the Indo-Pacific do not all act alike or see themselves in the same way.
Vietnam & Philippines could not be more stark in their difference.
Philippines is weak. Spends little on defense, and is obsequious to China.
Vietnam, similar in size to PH, is more defiant. It has a strong military, and will stand up to China.
PH bets on US doing all the fighting, and to protect PH interests with minimal support, and probably no gratitude.
BTW - when did PH politicians speak positively of the US? When have they talked as if they liked the US?
Duterte is gone, but I have not seen a change.
As an American, I feel that Philippines is a lost cause as an ally. I would strengthen ties with Taiwan, SK, and Japan. I would court VT as our ally in the SCS.
Forget PH.
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@golagiswatchingyou2966 Your statement about rivers in Africa is not true. The Niger is bigger than any river in Europe. In fact, the European nations are mostly around the minor rivers, not the biggest - The Danube.
Holland -Rhine, France - Seine & Rhone, England - Thames, Italy - Po & Tiber, etc. You don't need great rivers to have a civilization.
Africa's problems come from different sources, than rivers.
Also, Russia's hinterland is joined by rivers, joined be canal. You can take a river boat from St. Petersburg to the Black and Caspian Seas In fact, it was just reported Russia is moving some naval boats from the Caspian to the Black Sea. Russia's rivers, Neva, Dnieper, Don, Volga and others are navigable and joined. Russia is blessed with great river waterways, which is how internal trade flowed for centuries.
Granted, Russia longs for climate change to open up the Arctic trade routes, but the Canadian route will also open up. Global warming will bring with it sea level rise which will destroy St. Petersburg, and land along the Black Sea coast.
Sea level rise will effect most countries. Those without resources, will suffer badly.
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Melting Arctic discussions always mention access to new oil reserves in the Arctic Ocean. I do not think these reserves will ever be tapped -- here is why---
1) Even with no ice, the Arctic Ocean will still be very stormy, and extraction will be expensive.
2) Renewable energy is increasing, and electric vehicles will become common.
These two factors will prevent Arctic oil extraction.
Oil is common. Oil is located on continental shelves around the world. Israel now has oil in the Mediterranean (the remnant of the Tethys Sea),. Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia, have oil. Oil should also be expected to be found in the Indian Ocean on the Indian continental shelf. The SCS will also have it.
So, oil is ubiquitous (not rare, like big oil wants us to believe).
Oil demand will peak, and then start to decline by 2030 or earlier. Therefore, oil prices will decline and not support extraction from expensive areas ------
like that Arctic.
So, don't put your money in Arctic oil ventures.
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Your thinking seems sound. The problems with "what ifs" is that everything changes, so other things don't occur as well. Such as Hitler not coming to power, or maybe Stalin, too. Then no WW2 changes everything - No rise of US as global superpower, no UN, no Cold War, no NATO, no Korean War, No Viet Nam war, etc etc. I presume we still have Great Depression and Dust Bowl, don't we? Would India be independent? Would there be a united China? What would the Arab world look like? South America? etc etc.
One could get lost.
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If there is a debt-trap in Africa, it is China that is being trapped.
A country cannot be forced to pay a national debt except by the threat of armed forces.
When UK, France, and the others had colonies, they controlled those countries with their armies.
Those countries were trapped.
Well, NO WAY China can threaten African countries with military force.
If they send armies to Kenya, or Sudan, or anyplace, they will be opposed by US, EU, and others.
So, if an infrastructure project does not work out, and the country does NOT get richer,
and cannot pay off the loan --- it will be China that will be out the money.
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IMO, oil has been the primary stimulus for the US to patrol the world.
If you notice, the US was not very interested in South America or Africa, or countries like Indonesia and Burma. Why?? They did not produce much oil.
NOW -- renewable energy is slowly replacing oil as the energy source. Solar energy is being put on homes in the US at an increasing rate, and electric cars are expanding sales tremendously.
By 2040 or 2050, the world will be a very different place in terms of energy usage and consumption.
The Middle East will no longer be important as the supplier of the worlds energy.
The US will stop caring what goes on there.
Just as the US does not really care what happens in places like Burma, or Zimbabwe, or Argentina,
the US will stop caring about Saudi Arabia, or Egypt, or Iraq.
The US will care about Europe, Japan, and other countries that it trades with, and is allied with.
The US will care about countries that are part of its security apparatus.
Oil's decline as an important strategic resource will be a profound change maker in world affairs.
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So, Hindustan Times has now become a tool for Putin's propaganda.
It gives Putin's propaganda with no context, or analysis.
It does not report the atrocities committed, the targeting and killing of civilians, the destruction of hospitals & schools, and so much more.
This is why, IMO, the US should NOT ally itself with India.
India will not support the US in its effort to prevent China from starting a war.
In this case, India is allying with China to support Russia. The fact that China recently attacked India makes no difference.
India's anti-American attitude trumps its own situation with China.
US should be very careful with India, unreliable, and fundamentally opposed to the US.
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Disagree about Sea Lion. During the Battle of Britain, Germany was not being bombed, and its production not impaired.
Even without the distraction of Russia, Germany would still lose the Battle of Britain.
Consider,
1. The BoB took place over Britain. So, downed British airmen would get new planes and go back into the fight. Downed German pilots, however, became POWs. Effective Air Forces are about having experienced veteran flyers more than about supply of airplanes.
2. Britain's production capacity was increasing during the BoB. Soon, they were producing Spitfires and Mosquitoes in numbers.
3. The real threat to Britain came from U-boats. Under this scenario, Germany's production of U-boats is not increased or come earlier. So, Germany still loses the Battle of the Atlantic in the same time frame.
4. The biggest impact of Germany's not invading Russia, IMO, is that it would give Germany more resources to conquer North Africa, and to counter D-Day.
Germany would still lose. But, take longer. Britain is never invaded.
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Some good facts, but off the mark. The blitzkrieg did not work in Russia due to Russia's size. It worked remarkably well, at first. Russian armies and land fell rapidly. But, the sheer depth of the battlefield meant that the blitzkrieg ran out of resources. Russia, like the other allies, eventually learned how to fight the blitzkrieg.
1. The allies also developed tank battalions, and put radios in their tanks. LIke Guderian, they, too, looked at Britain's Plan 1919 that was ignored by Britain during their tank design and war preparation.
2. The allies developed and used infantry anti-tank weapons that reduced the supremacy of tanks. So much so, that infantry had to be used with tanks to protect the tanks, thus reversing the doctrine of blitzkrieg.
3. The blitzkrieg was defeated at the Battle of Moscow.
4. The battle of Kursk was the final desperate attempt by Hitler to defeat Russia. It was defeated by Zhukov's defense in depth that prevented any blitzkrieg penetrations...plus, espionage supplied knowledge of the German battle plans helped.
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When China was agrarian, its people were farmers. Farmers could grow their own food, and survive. Food and shelter were basic, but accessible.
Now, China is urbanized.
Living requires money, actual money.
Money for an apartment, and money for food, at the very least.
As China sinks into deep poverty, young people will suffer the most.
They don't know how to live in poverty.
They cannot grow food.
They cannot sew and make their own clothes.
The youth were told - get a degree, and jobs will be there for you.
Jobs are not there.
Chinese youth are lost, and sinking into despair.
The weak will kill themselves.
The strong will get angry.
What will the CCP do with with that anger?
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The main problem with these analyses, IMO, is that they assume a totally rational mind.
To me, that is absurd. Humans are emotional creatures.
When we make decisions, they usually come from our emotions.
We buy what we want, not what we rationally need.
We make decisions from love, hate, desire, fear, etc. -- all emotions.
Hitler made his decision to go to war against Poland, because he wanted to.
He detested Poles. He wanted their land. AND, he wanted to kill them.
To him, that meant war.
To try and put rational thought into this, assuming he was after geopolitical goals, is silly, IMO.
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One day, there will dead teenagers.
You see, there are people packing guns. Some legally, some not.
It someone with a gun is attacked, and made fearful for their life or health, they might pull and shoot.
I grew up in Chicago, and one thing I learned early, is you don't know who has what, or what they might do. You pick fights with strangers, you could end up dead.
May sound crazy, but that's Chicago.
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We need to DEFINE interference with our elections, or government institutions as ACTS OF WAR.
They are SERIOUS.
VERY serious.
The consequences MUST be serious, too.
Expelling diplomats is NOT enough, IMO.
I think a breaking of relations for a period of time may even be called for.
Actions can include:
=== Closing consulates, leaving only the embassy in Washington D.C.
=== Cutting off internet connection with Russia.
=== Evicting Russian companies here.
=== Cancelling contracts between US companies and Russian companies.
=== Cancelling agreement allowing RT News, and other Russian media outlets.
=== Putting sanctions on Russia as a country, not merely on specific individuals in Russia.
=== Increase tariffs, especially ending "Most Favored Nation" trading status, (if it has that).
It must be made VERY clear, that interfering with our government or election process, including disinformation campaigns, will be dealt with harshly.
Putin must learn that being an enemy of the US has consequences.
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Now compound China's demographic problem with decoupling and the loss of its export markets.
Xi's antagonistic and bullying foreign policy will make China's problem much worse.
As western manufacturing moves its factories and suppliers to India, Vietnam, and other countries, China's economy is going to suffer greatly. It is already losing its foreign currency reserves.
Its military challenges, and fishing fleet aggression is causing Japan, SK, PH, VT, India, and other countries to increase their defense spending. China's expansion of its military will not result in such a huge military that its neighbors will be over awed.
Their military expansion, and likely coalescence into an anti-China alliance, like NATO, will actually over-awe China.
IMO - China is heading for disaster.
A disaster so large, that the CCP will likely not survive.
A disaster so large, that the center may not hold, and China will fall apart, like it has many times in its history.
I think the people of China would be better served by multiple states.
Southern China, Central China, Manchuria, Xinjiang, and Tibet all deserve separate governments.
Even more states may develop, if such a collapse occurs.
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DISAGREE WITH YOU STRONGLY.
Hitler did not operate rationally from ANY point of view.
Now, that does not make him a mad man. He was evil, that's for sure, but not mad, IMO.
The thing is, everyone makes decisions based on their emotions.
When we desire something strongly, ALL of us tend to make wrong decisions.
Afterwards, if someone looked closely, we could be accused of being "mad".
How many people fall in love, and the relationship is a total disaster.
A disaster that friends and relatives knew was going to happen all along.
Do we call those people "mad"??
Perhaps we should, but we don't.
I think Hitler's decision to go to war was an emotional decision.
I think he convinced himself that Britain would not go to war, and was genuinely surprised when it did.
His thinking makes no sense. But, that does not make him "mad", just making decisions based on his passions.
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Sorry, I don't understand.
WHY, oh WHY, would a company send product by rail across Africa by land, when they can put it on a boat in Lagos or another port and send it up to Spain, France, Italy, UK, or Germany directly???
Also, getting product overland to Algiers or Tunis, still means product has to be put on ships to get to Europe.
I don't see how much is gained.
For import/export, the sea lanes should maintain their predominance, IMO.
For people transport, airliners is the best way to go, IMO.
Shervan, I think you got this one wrong.
To convince me otherwise, you need to show how and why ocean transport doesn't work as well.
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Excellent. Can you please do an episode on the most important and, to me, the most interesting part of Roman history -- 600 BC to the Punic Wars.
That was the time that Roman civilization was formed.
1. How did Rome evolve from being ruled by Etruscan Kings to having a Republic run by a Senate?
2. Why did they send a delegation to talk to Solon in Greece to get the laws and constitution of their Republic?
3. How and why did the Romans have the balls to leave Rome, and let the Senate rule an empty city, until they established the office of the Tribune of the Plebs, who had the power of VETO over the Senate. I mean, what kind of people have such courage??
4. How did the Romans use Campus Mars? It was a field in the city of Rome, where Romans assembled and trained for combat, war, and command. I believe they trained ALL THE F**KING TIME.
5. According to Livy, Rome was at war every year from 500 to 200, with only a handful of years of peace. WHY???
What drove Romans to be at war ALL THE TIME? Did their economy demand it? Were they driven by the desire to get slaves?? Was it plunder?? Was it pride?
6. Was their any people as warlike and martial as the Romans?? Mongols, maybe?
For me, that is the most interesting time. I think the peak of its power as a people was the Punic Wars.
After that, it started going downhill. The Civil Wars that started with Marius, and didn't end until Augustus became the first emperor was the time when its doom was sealed.
For after Augustus, Rome started assassinating its possible leaders, like Germanicus, and started having mad rulers, like Caligula.
It took 4.5 centuries for it to finally collapse. Isn't that a testament to the strength and will of the Roman people who constructed Rome in the 5th and 6th Centuries BC??
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Interesting, but of little value. First, carriers go to battle in battle groups, in coordination with other surface ships and submarines. A valid comparison would have to include these other assets that China and UK bring to a battle. Next, naval battles are often, if not typically, supported by land based air and missile operations. A battle in the North Sea would probably end very differently than if a battle occurred in the Yellow Sea.
Lastly, doctrine is important in assessing the effectiveness of units in battle. For instance, the apparently superior British and French tanks performed badly in the Battle of France because of differences between the German doctrine of concentrated panzer units and mobility versus the British/French doctrine of distributing tanks within infantry units with no radios. Doctrine was the factor in victory, not tank design.
So, what do we know of China's naval battle doctrine? Anything?? If we don't, then how can we make any assessment of their capability vis-a-vis the UK or the US?
If anything is known of China's naval doctrine, or overall military doctrine, I would really love to see a video discussion of it.
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In the next few decades, sea level rise will being changing geopolitics and strategy.
1. Sea level has already started, although very slightly. This rise will accelerate, and then accelerate more. Later this century, it may be rising by several inches per year. After 2100, the annual rise will be be even greater.
2. Moving our cities and populations from the coasts will be a challenge for many countries. I suspect that many will have difficulty affording it.
3. Meanwhile, global food production will begin to plummet, I think. If so, that will cause famine, death, and forced migrations. How will governments react? With compassion? Or, with bullets???
4. Will countries go to war to seize land as their land shrinks by submersion into the sea?
5. Meanwhile, heat waves will begin to make the tropics uninhabitable (see Paul Beckwith's videos). What will happen to those nations? What will they do? Will there be wars??
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As I see it, India and the United States are natural trading partners and allies.
Despite our very different histories, we both are committed to rule of law, democracy, and pluralistic societies, with freedom of religion, speech, and movement available to all.
This common view of how a nation should be run, makes us natural friends and allies.
China, though, has compelled us to accelerate our cooperation.
With the Quad, we have a nascent alliance.
Can a formal alliance be coming soon???
I think so.
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I am not worried.
Russia's economy is doing OK, for now.
EU's economy is hard hit, for now.
However, EU is building LNG facilities and getting oil from other sources.
In time, EU and these other sources will stabilize into a new normal.
Meanwhile, Russia will lose, but it will take time.
Sanctions take time.
It took 5 years for the Allied blockade of Kaiser's Germany in WW1 to get victory.
But, the Allies did win.
Right now, the only way for EU, US, and their allies to lose is if Ukraine loses.
Ukraine will only lose if it gives up.
As long as Ukraine keeps fighting, Russia will lose.
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The F-35 is the result of developing several NEW technologies, of which stealth is only one of them. Avionics, radars, ECCM, cockpit controls, networking, etc -- each required their own R&D.
Frankly, considering everything, I think the DD has done a pretty good job.
The per unit costs are now lower than many other planes, like the Rafale and Eurofighter.
The F-15EX is NOT cheaper than the F-35. There must be another reason for it.
If you don't need stealth, the F-15EX will carry larger payload, and is a better fighter -- in non-stealth engagements.
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What are the biggest obstacles to China's growth in power. There are several.
1. Leadership. Xi is destroying China's reputation. The CCP disavowal of treaties, laws, and agreements, make it very difficult for other nations and companies to trust agreements.
2. Geography. China is hemmed in by the inner ring of islands - Taiwan & Philippines. Of course, this is only a problem if China goes to war. In peacetime, they are no barrier to trade, commerce, and finance.
3. Economy - once a strength, now a weakness. China's export led economy is now vulnerable to other nations reducing their imports. China is already suffering. It's foreign currency reserves are tumbling. Its banks are already collapsing. This will get worse. Much worse.
4. Institutions - China has turned its back on international institutions - the UN, the World Court. By defying UNCLOS, China has set itself apart from the world community. By invading EEZ's around the world in its insatiable appetite for fish, China is creating ill will globally.
Now, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, and others have to spend more on their Coast Guards to protect their own EEZ.
This violation of international law puts China outside of the world club of nations.
5. Poor regional relations. One of the long term strengths of the US has been the good relations it has had with its neighbors - Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Caribbean. As China's relations with its neighbors decline, its influence, and thus its power declines. This happens even though China's military grows in strength. Soon, the Quad will grow into an anti-China military alliance. Its power will decline further.
In the end, the ability of China to control the waters of the rivers of Asia will be a minor plus, not a decisive factor at all.
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@Liboch And, this regime conquered Tibet and Sinkiang -- neither of which was part of traditional China. And what about the several times China attacked Vietnam?
China also took over Formosa in the past. Formosa was NEVER a traditional part of China.
Then there was the invasion of Korea, and the two attempted invasions of Japan.
So, stop with this BS that China is filled with peace loving people.
BTW - if so peace loving why does Chine currently threaten everyone with war??
China has threatened the following countries with war ---- Japan, Taiwan, US, Canada, Australia, UK, India, Vietnam, Philippines.... I am sure there are more, it is hard to keep track of them all.
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Disagree.
The authoritarianism of the past is not a cure for Mexico's problems.
Authoritarianism has proven NOT to work - whether Spain, Santa Ana, Diaz, or the PRI.
Democracy, IMO, is the solution.
However, democratic ideals are not part of Mexican culture - whether inherited from Spain,
or from the Aztecs.
Being next to the US, maybe some of our ideas have become familiar to them, and maybe they can move in that direction.
Japan, Germany, Taiwan, and South Korea are countries that have moved from authoritarianism to democracy.
Maybe Mexico can, too.
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The results of Russian operations so far do NOT support this general's conclusion.
1. Russia has not taken Ukraine up to the Dnieper, and show NO ability to do so.
2. Ukraine has MORE replacement soldiers available than Russia does, IMO. Russia is not on a war footing, while Ukraine has access to 15 Million male Ukrainians.
3. The best Russian equipment is being used up. While, the best Ukrainian equipment has yet to come. Advanced artillery is going to Ukraine. French, German, UK, and US artillery. Russia has mostly dumb artillery, not accurate. The smart artillery that Ukraine is getting is VERY accurate, and can be used as counter artillery.
4. Ukraine will have the best drones available. Russia hardly has any drones.
5. Ukraine morale is high. Russian morale is horrible. NO army with the low morale of the Russian army has EVER won a war.
(If I am wrong, PLEASE, cite a battle or war won by troops with such low morale. I really would like to read about that. It would be very interesting.)
So, Russia will never get Ukraine up to the Dnieper.
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I think the logistical problems of Germany can be laid down to lack of preparation, and the lack of understanding of the need for motorized transport.
WW1 is NOT a good analogue because motorized cars and trucks were only recently invented, and nations still relied on horses for transport. Plus, modern paved roads had not been greatly developed. I.E. horses were good enough. Also, static armies are easier to supply.
In WW2, things had changed. Armies were more mobile, their supply requirements increased, and motorized transport was in greater need. The US had a great advantage in motorized transport, yet the difficulties of the Red Ball Express are well documented.
Germany should have been building more trucks and tanks prior to the war.
BTW, one thing that has puzzled me is that Germany was supposed to be a leading industrial power, right??
Well, then why did Russia have so many more tanks at the beginning of the war??
And, then during the war, it seems that Russia was able to out-produce Germany (even if you subtract the help US gave.)
Why was that?? Was it because Hitler maintained civilian production for too long?
Also, didn't Hitler and the Wehrmacht think the war would be short, and not be a long war of attrition??
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Excellent piece.
Another Bulls center that never got any respect was Tom Boerwinkle. Even when he played he wasn't appreciated by many Bulls fans.
I liked him -- A LOT. He was a great passer. He would be at the top of the key, Van Lier would pass him the ball, then everyone cut, and Boerwinkle would pass or take a step and put the ball in himself.
That starting five of Boerwinkle, Chet the Jet, Butterbean Love, Jerry Sloan, and Stormin Norman Van Lier was second best starting five the Bulls ever had.
More importantly, the rugged gretty play of that group gave the Bulls their tradition and their legacy.
That legacy was continued by Jordan & Pippin, but it was created by Sloan, Van LIer, & company.
I wish the internet existed back then, so a piece like this could have been on Tom Boerwinkle.
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Putin sees the current world in ancient terms.
The US helped birth the current world, and is a prime supporter of it.
BUT, the United States does NOT have "hegemony" over it.
We do NOT control it. We influence it.
And we have a big say.
BUT -- we do not control it.
We do not, and cannot, tell UK, Germany, Japan, Indonesia, India, and all other countries what to do.
We may ask. We may cajole. We may even offer rewards.
But, we cannot order countries to do what we want.
Hence, the US does NOT have HEGEMONY.
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Hindustan Times supports Russia and its genocide.
Does India?
It seems so.
India puts a politician in jail for speaking about its leader, Modi.
Only non-democratic countries jail politicians for criticizing leaders.
In US and Europe you can criticize, ridicule, and laugh at their leaders.
They hate it, but that is how democracy works.
Not in India, obviously.
Now, India sides with Chins (?) supporting Russia.
India gives bogus silly reasons for not condemning Russia.
But, this media's praise of Russia, and criticism of Zelensky
shows the true position of India.
IMO, the US should distance itself from India, including suspending the Quad.
On this one point, China is right, India is not a reliable or good ally of the US.
There is not a good fit between us.
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So, VisualPolitik supports the right wing agenda. When did VP become a supporter of anti-democratic autocratic parties?
The statement "most unpopular president in history" is patently wrong, and stupidly false.
Try Herbert Hoover who twiddled while the Great Depression happened.
Or, try Richard Nixon who resigned, rather than run again.
If polling had been around, I am sure many of the presidents in the 1800's were very unpopular.
John Adams was VERY unpopular. But, then, since you know nothing of American History, you would not know that.
One thing I cannot stand is insular, pompous, parochial, know-it-all Brit gits, who don't read history of the world making judgements.
You don't know what you are talking about .
You used to be good.
WTF happened to you guys?
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If India plays it right, India can force US to follow its lead in dealing with China.
Already, the US is almost compelled to back up India's policies -- even to imitate or duplicate them.
What China had with the US, and the world in 2012, cannot be resurrected.
Too many threats. Too many innocents put in jail - including citizens of Canada and the US.
Too much human horror on the Uighurs.
Too many threats of war -- against US, India, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, etc. etc.
The issues of trade and tariffs are no longer important, or driving the relationship.
Now, the issues are human rights, international law, sovereignty, economic colonialism, and so much more.
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The west must continue the sanctions until Russia is defeated.
Not just Putin, but Russia itself.
Like Germany and Japan after WW2,
Russia needs to be remade into a socio-political structure that is compatible with the world.
How to do that?
Germany was divided into four zones, making up quadri-partite Germany, with General Lucius D. Clay as Administrator.
Japan was occupied solely by the United States, with General Douglas MacArthur as Administrator.
They were given new constitutions, and new institutions.
In a few years, they were self-governing, and now they are both free, prosperous, and strong.
Could the same be done in Russia??
Probably not.
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The reason Ukraine will win is that it has infinite supply of arms & ammo.
Russia has to make its own to replace what is used up.
Ukraine has no choice, but to fight.
To win, Russia has to utterly vanquish Ukraine's army, and do a complete conquest of the country.
Russia may have had the chance to do that in the very beginning.
But, not anymore. Russia is having a hard time completing the conquest of the Donbass,
let alone all of Ukraine.
Ukraine's troops are getting trained, and building experience as they fight.
Soon, Ukraine will have the resources to have large, well coordinated, counter attacks.
Ukraine will continue to receive artillery, missiles, drones, etc. The armament gap between Ukraine and Russia will decrease in time. As it does, Ukraine becomes stronger, and Russia weaker.
Each day, the Russian people become more aware that this is a real war, and not a "special operation".
The Russian people supported the war when they thought it was going to be simple, and that the Ukraines would welcome them. I am sure they are realizing that Ukrainians hate them, and that they are destroying what had been a friendly country.
The love between Russians and Ukrainians is gone.
Over time, IMO, Russians will grow to be against this war.
But, that may take years.
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I see two major mistakes by Japan --
1) Not choosing the "Northern Strategy" of attacking and taking Siberia from Russia. Russia was losing war to Germany at the time, and likely would not have been able to resist. Secondly, it would not have drawn US into the war.
2) The Pearl Harbor attack should have been accompanied with invasion, just like in the Philippines, Malaya, etc. If Japan had occupied Hawaii, then the US fleet would have been pushed back to the continent, all the ships trapped in Pearl Harbor could have been seized or salvaged, expanding Japan's Navy, and diminishing the American Navy. Plus, American submarines would not have been able to attack and restrict the vital shipping of raw materials to Japan. Japan would have been able to stockpile supplies, and expand their ship building program. This would have delayed the US Victory for several years, IMO.
The attack on Pearl did nothing from a strategic POV, except to draw America into the war. Strategically, it was stupid.
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Whoa, wait a miinute -- Germany and France were the ONLY two Western European countries to invade Russia this way. The Crimean War does not count.
The wars with Poland, Sweden, and LIthuania don't really count since those countries no longer pose a threat to Russia.
The world is very different from before the 20th Century.
Putin's mistake, and seemingly, every analyst pontificating on this issue is that the world has CHANGED.
1. Wealth is not determined by land resources and agricultural production, as it was before 1800.
2. Wealth is not determined primarily by industrial production, like it was before WW2.
2.1 This is why colonial systems were dsimantled. They became unprofitable.
3. So, conquering other nations does NOT add to power or wealth. Conquering other lands is stupid. Putin's quest to add to Russia is stupid and silly. His thinking is centuries out of date.
4. Security is primarily established through treaties, and trading relationships. The EU has been VERY successful in unifying the interests of France, Germany, Italy, and UK (I know, it left). Western Europe, which had been warrring since Charlemagne, has been pacified.
Russia was offered participation, but Putin refused.
Putin's paranoia of NATO and the west is precisely that -- PARANOIA.
There is no RATIONAL basis for thinking NATO and Europe is a threat.
NATO is a DEFENSIVE alliance. It only comes into being if, and ONLY if, it is attacked.
So, don't attack it.
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In the 1970's, the US made the long term commitment to integrate China into the World Trade Oder.
We transferred recognition of China from Taiwan to the CCP.
We sponsored China into the WTO, and onto the UN Security Council
We opened up our markets to China, and encouraged American companies to set up operations there.
The whole idea was based on the theory that increased trade to liberalize China.
Well, that didn't happen. Under Xi, China has become Maoist again.
Xi and the CCP has threatened many countries with war.
Besides the US - Canada, Australia, India, Vietnam, Philippines, Japan, Taiwan, Sweden, and others
have been threatened with war.
China killed Vietnamese and Filipino fishermen.
The US and our companies have no choice but to move our manufacturing and supply chains to
other countries.
No choice at all.
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Why do we use the term "Asian"?
When we refer to people from Europe, we say French, or German, or Italian, or Swedish, etc.
We recognize the nationality or heritage of that person.
In the US, we have Irish Americans, or Italian-Americans, or Polish-Americans -- we do NOT have Euro-Americans.
Or, or least we don't use those terms.
I feel uncomfortable using the word Asian-American.
To me it seems lazy, and that I don't care to know if the person is of Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Filipino, Thai, or other heritage.
One thing I do know is that people from each country are different.
The cultural differences of China, Japan, India, etc. go back thousands of years.
The cultures and the people are vastly different.
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Wars are often engines of change within countries.
Germany & Japan would never have embraced democracy and market economies if they had not lost the wars they started.
The Thirty Years War changed western Europe fundamentally. Religion was eliminated from being part of governmental institutions. For instance, in 1600, the Archbishop of Canterbury was a powerful political position in England. By 1700, it is irrelevant.
In 1600, the Pope was a major European force. By 1700, the Pope is irrelevant.
IF China starts a war, even deeply held beliefs and attitudes may change profoundly.
Support for the CCP, or anything like it, may change, especially if China loses.
AND, China will LOSE if it attacks Taiwan.
Amphibious assaults are very difficult.
What can China do to prevent Taiwan from turning Taiwan Strait into a killing zone of the Chinese invasion fleet??
Missiles alone can sink the fleet.
Torpedoes alone can sink the fleet.
Mines alone can sink a large portion of the fleet.
Shore based artillery can sink a large portion of the fleet.
China can destroy much of Taiwan, that is certain.
BUT, how can it prevent the total destruction of its invasion fleet???
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You come to the conclusion of China's inability to invade Taiwan, and you did not even look at the ability of Taiwan to defend itself.
So, let's look at Taiwan.
I do find it odd, that all the Chinese invasion scenarios have Taiwan just sitting there, getting pummeled, invaded, and defeated.
As if, they are just going to sit there.
Let's look at Taiwan's resources to defend itself.
1. Taiwan has artillery, tanks, and a well trained army to meet any Chinese that are able to make the crossing of the Strait.
2. Taiwan has advanced radars to identify, track, and target ships and planes.
3. Taiwan has THOUSANDS of missiles. They have been making HF-2, HF-2e, and HF-3 missiles for almost 20 years. The HF-2e, with a 600km range, has been in production since 2011. They have gotten Harpoons from the US.
4. Do you really think any ship bigger than a row boat will survive Taiwan's missiles during their six hour journey to Taiwan?? I don't. Taiwan will be able to fire over 10 missiles at each ship, if they need to.
China's fleet will be gone. Done. Sunk. Gone forever.
Sure, by 2030, or 2040, China's fleet will be more massive. They may even have more amphibious transport capability.
BUT -- Taiwan will have MORE missiles. The new Yun Feng, under development, will have a 1200 km range, and more sophisticated ECM, radar, and electronics.
I don't disagree with you.
But, please tell Taiwan's side.
It makes China's hopes even more forlorn.
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I look at democracy much more optimistically.
From 1990, we have seen Taiwan and ROK become thriving democracies.
The fall of the Soviet Union has allowed Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Romania, and Bulgaria become wonderful democracies. Hungary is the one question mark, it seems.
The Arab Spring showed that a hunger for democracy is growing in the Arab world.
The Ukraine War shows how strong democracies are, and how flawed autocracies are.
US, UK, and EU are crippling Russia without firing a shot. The power of western democracies through sanctions is shocking China and the world. An invasion of Taiwan is much less likely now, IMO.
Turkey's move towards autocracy by Erdogan is temporary, IMO. Erdogan is destroying the lira and economy of Turkey.
I think when Turkey finally gets tired of that idiot, Turkey will move back to democracy.
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What do you think of China's current ability to invade and conquer Taiwan???
Many people seem to think that the mere size advantage China has over Taiwan means that China is guaranteed success.
I don't think so.
1. No air supremacy, maybe not even air superiority.
2. Taiwan has hundreds, maybe thousands of anti-ship missiles of their own construction.
Seems to me that hundreds of China's boats would end up at the bottom of the sea.
3. Taiwan strait is 100+ miles wide -- much bigger than the English Channel.
4. Taiwan is smaller, so Taiwan knows all the possible landing sites, and will be well prepared for landings at any of them.
5 Taiwan has modern M1 Abrams tanks.
6. China has no stealth aircraft (J20 is not stealthy) SOOoo, China would have a hard time doing much suppression of air defences.
7. China has no experience in amphibious assault. By D-Day, the US had a lot of experience - Torch, Sicily, Anzio, and Pacific island assaults.
Personally, I don't see how China could succeed.
What do you think???
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BTW, sometimes very practical gear go out of fashion.
For instance, I now wear a fedora most of the time.
I am NOT a stylish guy, really. I am very practical.
I wear a fedora now because it is very practical.
1. It does keep my head war, even in winter. Keeps a nice dome of warm air on top of my head.
2. The brim keeps light rain off of my face, making getting around much more comfortable.
3. It does NOT protect my neck, so I wear scarves when its cold. I like nice long scarves - 7 or 8 feet.
The long scarves do make a fashion statement, and I love that. Being a nerd, I love the Dr. Who connection, LOL.
Odd thing, though, I get many, very many, compliments on my hats.
BUT, no one copies me, and start wearing hats.
Which I actually like. I never liked being one of the mob.
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Idiot. Pizza, as we know it, was invented in AMERICA. It had Italian forebears, but that was an appetizer or meal accompaniment, not the meal it became in America.
The deep dish pizza you appear to be eating was invented at Pizzeria Uno in Chicago, circa 1959. New Yorkers have what they call pizza, but anyone who knows anything about pizza, knows its crap.
[Anytime you can roll a pizza slice to eat, you know it has a crap crust, and that is said to be the "right way to eat a New York pizza". That is the proof, it is crap.]
Thin crust pizza was perfected in Chicago.
Anyway, since this guy gets his intro all wrong, how can we believe anything he says.
Scientists should do better research -- especially when it comes to pizza.
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Why, you might ask, would otherwise good people promote Trump??
Money and career, that is why. The reporters, analysts, and commentators on FOX and elsewhere, want the paycheck. They are generally of lower quality, and might not get another job as good as the gig they have. So, they play along with the lies and distortions. Undoubtedly, justifying their actions to themselves as "business as usual".
However, Trump has already killed thousands of Americans in Puerto Rico, and plans on killing more by allowing the pollution of our air and water.
How could the people who support Trump sleep at night, knowing he does these things???
Simple, either they are, deep down, evil people.
Or, they are ignorant of what he is doing, and keep themselves ignorant so they won't know.
Of course, they really do know. So, deep down, they are evil people, too.
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I understand your assertion. However, power poorly used, can backfire.
Of late, China has shown to be diplomatically very clumsy.
China has created a backlash of resentment, fear, and even hate.
The bullying and threats has stimulated the creation of an anti-China coalition called the Quad.
Soon, an anti-China alliance, similar to NATO, will likely be created.
India and the ASEAN nations that are downstream of China's rivers, are not powerless.
They, too, have the collective ability to make or break China.
If China uses the rivers to directly extort concessions, then those countries will see even more the need for collective action.
Seeing China as the main regional threat will compel them to put aside minor differences and squabbles,
so they can unite against China.
This is what I fell will happen.
I feel so strongly, that I see it as a very certain inevitability.
It WILL happen.
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I want your opinion of Allan Eckert's series of books - The Winning of America series, which has the books ---
The Conquerors, Wilderness Empire, The Frontiersmen, and The Wilderness War.
The book, Twilight of Empire has 54 pages of notes and an eight page bibliography.
Technically, they are historical novels.
BUT - Allan Eckert explains that every event occurred or must have occurred.
As such, as novels, they suffer a bit.
As a lover of history, knowing that every event was "true" made it great.
Now some events may not be "true" from an historian's perspective.
Such as the events of Simon Butler's life where much of it came from Simon Butler, himself.
Could there have been SOME exaggeration??
Probably. I accepted that and enjoyed them.
Other things were more important from the stand point of history.
For me, I came away with a deeper understanding of the interactions and conflicts between the settlers and the Indians, and even between the Indian peoples.
BTW - I use the term "Indian" for that was the proper term used for 400 years, until the current era of political correctness - of Native American, which is also an alien designation as far as the Indians are concerned.
Anyway, I would like your opinion about his type of work. If you read one of his books, I recommend Wilderness War, it is the first, and is probably the best, IMO.
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The problem Russia has is that the faults exposed in the Russian military cannot be corrected in few months.
In fact, they cannot be corrected in a few years.
First, Russia's highly centralized military doctrine and structure will take years to change. NCO's are needed to give flexibility to Russian units. Without them, the Russian army is inflexible.
Second, Russian army kleptocracy means that many "maintained" vehicles are not usable. Much of the supposed huge stockpiles of tanks, artillery, and even trucks are simply useless. This culture of theft cannot be changed overnight. It will take a long time, and that is if Russia even wants to change it. There is no sign that Russia wants to do that.
Third, political appointments of Russia's military commanders. Russian military commanders have been incompetent. I think that Putin's demand for personal loyalty is a big reason. This will only change when Putin is gone.
Fourth, the Russian economy is small, and getting smaller. Wars cost money -- LOTS of money. If you don't have enough, it is nice to have an ally who will sell you arms --- like the US did to UK during WW2, or how US is supporting Ukraine today.
But, Russia has no such ally. No one is willing to carry huge Russian debt for decades. When China or Iran sells arms to Russia, I believe that is done on a cash and carry basis. Russia does not have enough money to buy much.
Fifth, sanctions are impacting Russia's economy, and will make their ability to support the war increasingly difficult. Russia will give up Crimea, IMO, without a fight. After it is cut off, the Crimean siege will begin. Nothing in or out.
No food. After starvation sets in, it will only be a matter of time.
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Philippines, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam, Columbia, Thailand, and many others
do their best to make foreign companies feel wanted and appreciated.
Unlike China, who puts their executives in jail, threaten companies, and steal from them.
What sane business owner would want to do business in China??
(Note: Elon Musk does not qualify, since I did say "sane")
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Taiwan hardly needs anyone's help if China is ever so stupid as to attempt an invasion.
1. Seaborne invasions are VERY difficult, and very expensive. The D-Day invasion involved oveer 5,000 ships, thousands of planes, and special portable docking facilities (mulberries) to enable re-supply.
China has NONE of these.
2. The Germans had no reconnaissance of Allied preparations. Taiwan has total reconnaissance of China. Taiwan will know weeks in advance of any invasion preparations.
3. The Germans had no anit-ship missiles. The D-Day invasion force was untouchable. Germans could do little to sink or even interfere with invasion operations.
Taiwan has no such limitations. Taiwan bristle with anti-ship missiles. Any invasion force will not likely get close to touching the shores.
4 Geography - D-Day planners had many beaches to choose from. Nice, flat, beaches with shallow approaches. Taiwan has only 2 beaches where an invasion can be made. They are very well defended. Any attempted landings will be torn apart. Low probability of success.
5. Weather - English channel is known for storms, and D-Day was almost cancelled due to weather. The Taiwan Strait is much worse. Sea states are often high, making invasions difficult. It has been reported that invasions can be done for short windows only 2 times per year.
6. Technology - Taiwan is a technically advanced nation, and makes the most advanced microchips in the world. That means Taiwan can make advanced avionics and ECCM systems for their missiles. Taiwan's anti-ship missiles can destroy much of China's fleet while in port.
Taiwan has enough missiles to overwhelm defenses with multiple missiles targeting each ship.
BTW - troop ships are very vulnerable. I doubt if any would survive. An invasion would fail if just a few are sunk before unloading.
IF China is so foolish to attempt an invasion, I doubt there would be enough left of the Chinese invasion fleet for the US to even deal with.
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Seems Russian army cannot find a single Ukrainian military objective.
Ukraine hits ammo dumps, fuel dumps, C&C centers, radars, bridges, etc.
Russia hits hospitals, schools, museums, homes, etc. -- not one military target.
Russian army hurts people, but don't make one dent on Ukraine's military.
Is there any doubt WHO will win this war??
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"Ultimately, it's about control." Agreed.
IMO, Xi and the CCP are using traditional imperial China traditions to model their ruling philosophy, policies, and procedures.
Xi views China as the Middle Kingdom, where laws, rules, and agreements don't apply. Others are bound to contracts, not China. Others are bound by international law, not China.
Everyone and every organization must kowtow to the Emperor, oops, I mean Xi.
HOWEVER, this may have been successful in the pre-industrial, pre-nation state, world.
But, it is not effective today.
China's demand for total control stifles business innovation, adaptability, and success.
In technical fields like chips, computers, medicine, etc, how can companies, or whole industries compete with the world??
They cannot.
Foreign companies are racing to the exits.
What is worse, though, is that the domestic Chinese companies, that aren't going anywhere,
are having their hands tied.
The demands for political orthodoxy inside Chinese companies will make them inefficient.
More than that, it will make them stiff and sclerotic -- ossified and resistant to needed change.
Xi and the current CCP are killing the Chinese economy.
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You miss a VERY important category -- the Devout Agnostic, of which I am one.
To me, an Atheist and a Theist are identical. They both have a firm belief -- one that a God exists, and the other in that a God does not exist.
As a Devout Agnostic -- I believe that the existence, or non-existence, of a God is un-knowable.
When arguing against either, the logic is the same, since both positions are irrational.
Their positions are irrational since they are beliefs, and not conclusions based on evidence.
Atheists are still thinking theologically, just like believers.
No difference.
Now, why do I call myself "Devout". Simple, my devotion to Agnosticism comes from the firm knowledge and belief that Gods are un-knowable.
If God exists, it would more superior to us, than we are to ants. Anyone who says they "know" God would be committing the sin of Pride, in the very least. Therefore, even if God exists, it does not matter, for we cannot know or relate to it. Its values, morals, and ways of being would be alien and unintelligible to us.
So, even if God exists, it would be the very same as if one did NOT exist.
Therefore --- it does not matter if God exists.
God is moot.
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I do not think the US can check China alone.
We will need help.
If enough nations ally with us in stopping China's ambition to reduce regional countries to vassalhood by controlling their usage of the SCS for their maritime trade, then China will be checked.
But, we can only do this if we coordinate our policies, and support each other.
Unfortunately, the people of Philippines, Vietnam, India, and others have long seen the US negatively, even as an enemy.
If the people of these countries see us as the threat, and not China, then we won't be able to work together, and China will win.
If China will win, that would be a minor setback for the US, but a disaster for all the nations of the Indo-Pacific.
They better start making their minds up about who their enemy is.
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United States does not threaten everyone with war, like China does.
So, our ships are welcome in places like Japan, Canada, Philippines, Australia, Singapore, Italy, UK, Poland, Norway, France, Germany, Spain, Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Dubai, Brazil, Panama, Mexico, etc etc.
Where are China's ships welcome?? It is a short list.
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And now Trump is destroying the United States Postal Service. It was founded by Benjamin Franklin, and has been doing a great job for 240 years. Trump has decided to destroy it, for the most selfish of reasons --- to help him get re-elected.
I am sure Republicans in Texas, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and other red states will support Trump on that, because they are all questionable Americans, too.
If they cared about America, they would not be trying to kill us by denying us healthcare.
They would not be trying to destroy our retirement by destroying Social Security.
They would not be trying to destroy our National Parks, especially the Arctic Wildlife Preserve.
They would not support a president who holds private meetings with Putin.
But, to ask Republicans in red states to be American, is too much to ask.
After all, they are the descendents of Confederate traitors, who killed Americans, and abandoned our Constitution.
So I am not surprised that those heirs of the Confederacy don't like America, don't like Americans, and want to destroy the USA.
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Oh give it a rest.
Stop looking to the government to be the only teller of tales.
I have been reading history all my life, and I still feel I know so little.
Parents must teach themselves, and teach their children.
I read many books on Native American History, but there is so much to learn and know.
If History only taught Native American History, then what is to become of
ancient history, European history, history of religions, anthropology, mythologies,
Latin American history, history China, Japan, India, Vietnam, the peoples and kingdoms of Africa, History of science, philosophy, technology, history of the corporation, the rise of Civil Rights, Labor History, the Suffragettes, the rise of liberal democracies, the Black Plaque, History of Writing, etc.
IMO, every child should read the 11 volumes of The History of Civilization by Will & Ariel Durant. And, that is just to start.
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The CCP is not a single unified government, as I see it.
It has these departments, functions, or factions that don't talk to each other.
That is why there is such contradictory behavior.
One faction tries to increase trade and investment, while another threatens and bullies those same governments.
One faction tries to get more foreigners to visit, while another threatens them with a new security law.
One faction wants world class infrastructure, while another builds tofu dreg to make as much money as possible.
On top of that, their propaganda is NOT centralized.
So, people in the CCP and government actually believe their own propaganda.
I think Xi does not even know the truth.
That is why I think there will be a war. China will try to invade Taiwan, or
China will push Philippines too far, thinking US and no one else will help PH or Taiwan.
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Let's take your scenario a bit further.
How does London respond? (You never really answered that question.)
I presume UK would respond from one of its SSBN subs.
Several nuclear armed rockets, at least, I would think.
They would be MIRVed.
(BTW, MIRV means multiple warheads, NOT decoys. They are all HOT.)
I would suspect at least 6 sites in North Korea would be hit.
Now, that might be the end of it ------
IF (that's a very big IF) China does not think it is under attack and respond with its own missiles.
US alliance with UK, would mean it could not sit idly by while UK gets nuked by China.
SO, the US would nuke China.
China would then nuke US nearby allies to ensure China is not invaded from those areas.
SO, Japan and Taiwan and South Korea might get nuked, too.
With 100+ nuclear warheads exploding around the world,
radiation clouds will envelop the northern hemisphere.
Radioactive dust clouds will block out the sun.
If 200+ warheads explode, a nuclear winter will happen,
that may last a few years.
Crops will fail. Global famine will happen.
Global disaster for humanity.
Any good news???
YEP, there sure is.
Over population will no longer be a problem.
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India, Vietnam, Japan, and the US have a de facto alliance against China. When Duterte goes, the Philippines will join the alliance. I suspect that Taiwan is also a part of that alliance. China's SCS efforts to gain total sovereignty over that sea will fail. No country will allow themselves to be excluded from that sea. VIetnam, Japan, and others will not allow themselves to become client states to China.
This is a war issue. At some point, I expect China under Xi to overplay its hand, and to fire upon and maybe sink a ship from India, Vietnam, or China -- precipitating war.
That is how wars start -- one side misunderstanding how other nations will respond. Aggressive nations, like Germany and Japan in WW2, always seem to think non-aggressors are cowards and will not go to war to protect themselves. This, of course, is idiotic. Any person, or animal in fact, will protect themselves when attacked.
And, unfortunately, once the dogs of war have been unleashed, ending it becomes difficult.
One odd effect is that democracies especially have a difficult time ending a war. The US and UK in WW2 would not accept a negotiated peace, but demanded total victory. Hitler & Tojo were surprised by that. Each were counting on a negotiated peace to end their war.
Democracies can have stiff backbones, once the decision for war is made.
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China threatens the entire world trade order.
China's claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea threatens EVERY NATION.
If China succeeds in taking the SCS, then UNCLOS is inoperable, and peaceful world trade is no longer guaranteed.
Much of world maritime trade goes through the SCS. The nations that use it, will find their trade under the control of China, making them de facto vassals of China.
Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and South Korea will all be put under China's thumb.
It is this CONTROL of the SCS maritime trade that is the REAL reason for China's claims.
THEREFORE, the nations of NATO and the EU are directly involved and impacted. They MUST help the US to guarantee UNCLOS. This is NOT a regional issue. It is a global issue.
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@offiz Good question. We don't really care about what happens in places like Brazil, or India, or Egypt, or many other countries -- so, it is a good question - "What is it about China that makes America react like it has??"
I think there are several reasons.
1. China is threatening war to take Taiwan.
2. China claims sovereignty (not competing EEZ rights) over the South China Sea.
3. China has threatened war against many countries unless they do precisely what China tells them to do -- Sweden, Canada, US, Japan, Australia, India, Vietnam, UK, and Philippines.
4. China has publicly and repeatedly said that the US is their enemy. It is hard to be apathetic when a country as big and powerful as China declares you its enemy.
5. There is the human rights issues -
---- persecution and genocide of the Uighyrs.
---- Persecution and organ harvesting from Falun Gong members.
---- Illegal arrests and detainment of citizens of other countries to use as bargaining chips.
----- the persecution and inhumanity of the CCP towards Chinese citizens. (not that we really care, though).
Is that enough to explain it?
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I reject Buddhism. It is totally inwardly motiviated.
Buddha's abandoning of hsi child and family is the start.
It says nothing about kindness, charity, or obligation.
Buddha, according to the stories, abandons his parents, wife, and child.
Disgusting person, IMO.
PLUS -- Karma teaches that when people suffer, it is because of their Karma.
Therefore, to be kind and to help a person interferes with their "karma" and should not be done.
Buddhism teaches fatalism, isiolation, and numbness.
To avoid all suffering it teaches avoiding all joy.
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Why no mention of Taiwan's own developed and manufactured missiles?
The HF-2, HF-2a, and HF-3 missiles are formidable. They can sink warships, and strike targets in China. China's warships can be sunk while in port even.
The Taiwan Strait is 100 miles of rough seas to cross.
D-Day in WW2 took thousands of ships, and total domination of sea and land, to achieve victory. China will NOT have domination of either sea or land.
A Chinese invasion ATTEMPT of Taiwan will fail miserably.
Dozens, even hundreds, of ships will be sunk, and hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers and sailors will be killed.
Meanwhile, sanctions will cripple China's economy.
Though, the CCP won't care about that.
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Disagree. The problem with "learning" from history is that it could blind you to alternatives.
For instance, the geographic security issues Peter says about Russia, also exist for Germany.
And, for the past 2000 years, it was invaded and fought over hundreds of times.
Is that the case now??
NO ! ! ! Germany & Europe have found a way to work together and live together.
Now, Germany does not have to worry about France invading, or Poland invading, or Sweden invading, or vice-versa.
Now they are all tied together with interlocking trade and treaties.
Today's military technology reduces or even eliminates geographic barriers and the supposed security they once provided.
BTW - Europe was offering Russia the opportunity to partake in that security. The EU and US was welcoming Russia into the economic structure. They were expecting Russia to participate. That is why they were reducing their military spending, building the Nord-stream pipeline, and helping Russia develop its resources.
It was all going so swimmingly -- until -- Russia invaded Crimea.
Now Russia has made itself a pariah - as if it had leprosy or the Black Death.
It is unwelcome in any economic forum.
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People can convince themselves of many things that are obviously untrue.
We we desperately want something to be true, we make ourselves believe it
Most of us have known friends or relatives who were in love, and truly believed that they were loved in return.
They believed that, when to every observer, it was obvious they were being cheated on and disrespected.
Despite what seemed like obvious evidence, they still continued to believe.
Denial is so common, that it is to be expected.
IMO, Hitler had convinced himself that Britain would never declare war, and
that the Munich Pact was as empty as Britain's commitment to Czechoslovakia.
After all, what was the difference between Poland and Czechoslovakia??
Why would Britain let one die, and go to war for the other.
That made no sense, I am sure.
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That period was also important for the development of the Progressive and Labor movements.
The 1890's was the time of the Robber Barons and monopolies. That gave rise to Progressives in the Republican Party, headed by Theodore Roosevelt. That led to the Taft Hartley Act, and the break up of Standard Oil. Monopolies have since been frowned upon, until the recent changes in the GOP since Reagan.
It was the period of the Haymarket Riots, and the demand for better working conditions, adequate pay, and a shorter work week. The current era of new monopolies, like Facebook, Google, and Amazon have created a new era of Robber Barons, who control our economy, and with the GOP, our government.
In response, a new Progressive Movement has been born.
Will it succeed? Will our economy and government be saved, and returned to working for the people?
I wonder.....
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OMG, not another reference to the incompetent, biased, CSIS "war game'.
It is deeply flawed.
1. It states US would lose 4 submarines. WTF??? China cannot find, let alone target and kill a US sub. Unless of course an American sub surfaced in Shanghai harbor. LOL
2. Like ALL war simulations I have heard of so far, it assumes Taiwan sits there like a punching bag.
3. The difficulty (actual almost impossibility) of a successful amphibious landing is not taken into account.
4. The inclusion of the result of the loss of maritime insurance for ALL cargo ships going to the region is never taken into account. The loss of maritime insurance will create a de facto blockade of China. (How is that for irony??)
5. The several thousand Surface to Air (SAM), Air to Surface (ASM) and Air to Air (AAM) missiles that Taiwan has is also NEVER taken into account,
In reality, IF China is so STUPID as to attempt an invasion ---
1. Taiwan's missiles would sink most of the Chinese fleet before it gets halfway.
2. Taiwan's missiles have the range to sink Chinese ships while they are in port.
3. Taiwan has missiles with ranges that can reach Beijing, and the 3 Gorges Dam.
So, if the US even wants to have a role, it better tell Taiwan to pull its punches,
so there is something left for the US Navy to do when it gets there.
VisualPolitik -- you should vet your sources of information.
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Shervan, I would like to hear your analysis of what the geopolitical arrangement of the world will be
after the age of oil.
Peak Oil Demand will happen in the next few years. After that, oil demand will decrease until it becomes inconsequential.
Solid State batteries, which can be charged in 15 minutes, will be a game changer -- propelling the acceptance of electric cars to the mass public.
When access to oil is no longer relevant to economies and to militaries, how will that change national politics? National rivalries?
The Middle East has been the focus of geopolitics since WW2 because of oil. Will our concern for the Middle East decline to the level of concern felt for Central Africa or South America?
I think so. Why would anyone care about Saudi Arabia anymore???
Why would US or Europe defend the oil states??
Being less wealthy, the Muslim states may not have the money to fund the terror groups like Boko Harram, Al Shabbab, and so many others. So, will there be a change in world terrorism??
Won't non-oil countries benefit? Could the non-oil desert states of Africa, with their constant sunshine, enable them to become rich in energy?? Could they become the next centers of manufacturing??
BTW -- IMO, manufacturing will be more dependent on access to cheap energy, than it will be to cheap labor. So, could Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Morocco, and Algeria become manufacturing behemoths?
The assumptions we have operated with for so long will no longer be valid.
How will this change the world?
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There is a more profound and unstoppable change coming to the Middle East -- the end of oil demand.
1. Oil is quite ubiquitous. It is everywhere. Virtually all continental shelves have it. Most has not yet begun to be tapped.
2. But, that is not the problem. The REAL PROBLEM for the oil countries is electric cars & renewable energy. Both are growing at an ever increasing rate.
3. Peak Oil Demand is expected to happen anytime from 2023 to 2030. After it happens, global oil demand is expected to decline until it is hardly used at all. By 2050, over 90% of cars and trucks are expected to be electric powered. By 2050, most electricity will be produced by renewable energy powered plants.
4. As that happens, the significance of the Middle East will decline. No one will care who rules Arabia or the other oil states. The Saudis will lose their protection as they lose their significance.
5.Their current wealth is dazzling. But, it hides major weaknesses, especially for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is still run like a medieval kingdom. Human rights are not guaranteed, and rule of law non-existent. The courts are controlled by the government, and its application of "justice" is whimsical. Good luck to anyone caught up in it.
Will the Saudi family be able to cope with the coming changed world?? Probably not. If MBS is any indication, they are not a very bright lot.
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Free trade, i.e. no or very low tariffs, has been too good for the world economy to be abandoned.
So, why is there talk of it dying??
Simple -- China is the big guy not playing by the rules.
So -- tariff barriers are being erected for China.
Lucky them.
I do not see why the G7, and the countries associated with them should be affected.
China and Russia will be excluded, I expect.
I expect the ASEAN nations to be included. Along with Latin America, Middle East, and Africa.
Ones that are irritants to the world trade order will be excluded, and will have high tariffs.
So, China, North Korea, Russia, Belorussia, and Iran will be excluded.
I wonder how smaller troubled countries will be handled. South Sudan, Venezuela, Burkina Fasso, Yemen,
and other problem ridden countries will have to be dealt with somehow.
The majority of world trade is done by the G7 and their trading partners. I don't see why existing tariff
rules would need to be changed for them.
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@princessbernaaquino8772 I was wrong. The Chinese ship, after sinking a fishing boat, left 22 Filipino fishermen to die in the sea. A Vietnamese boat rescued them -- fortunately.
That was an act of war. Acts of war should be treated as acts of war.
1. Philippines should formally protest, and demand apology, and compensation.
2. If not forthcoming, Philippines could break diplomatic relations, impose trade restrictions, increased tariffs, etc.
3. Philippines needs to increase the AFP navy. Philippines needs to use the US in an alliance to defend Philippines EEZ rights. The US WILL help, if Philippines wants help.
China will not treat Philippines nice by playing weak and helpless.
4. Philippines should impound ALL Chinese fishing vessels in their EEZ. Confiscate every ship, and impose prison sentences on the crews -- LONG prison sentences on the captain and officers.
IMO, Philippines should stand up and be strong. Remember, China is a bully. And bullies back down when challenged.
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Shervan, I recommend you read Russia Under the Old Regime, and Russia Under the New Regime.
Pipes makes a good case that Communism, especially Stalinism, is really a repackaging of Tsarism.
Similarly, Maoism is a repackaging of the Chinese Imperial system.
We are really seeing that with Xi, who behaves as if China is the Middle Kingdom, and the world should kowtow.
China MUST give up this system.
Taiwan did, and look how prosperous it is.
South Korea gave up the Chosun system, and look how prosperous it is.
Japan gave up Bushido and Emperor worship, and look how prosperous it is.
The nations of Asia prosper when they give up the imperial forms of governments
that were used across Asia for centuries.
Similarly, in Europe, as the states of western Europe evolved away from monarchical government,
they became more prosperous.
That is why the Netherlands became wealthy, while Spain, despite its Empire, became poor.
As that spread in Europe, the wealth spread with it.
The system of trade, corporations, banking, universities, freedom of movement,
and the elimination of aristocracies is at its root.
China has a new aristocracy in the CCP, denies freedom of movement, and cripples its corporations.
The CCP is the garrote around China's neck.
China MUST destroy the CCP, if it ever hopes to achieve sustainable prosperity.
IMHO, of course.
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Putin has destroyed Russia's economy, and its geopolitical position.
Ukraine will join NATO and the EU.
Russia will be excluded from both.
Trade and investment with Russia will recover slowly.
Western companies lost billions because of Putin's war, and they will
be reluctant to commit much money to Russia.
Especially since countries of Asia, Africa, and South America show much more promise
for safe profitable projects.
Ukraine has always been integral to Russian trade. It was very important.
Putin has destroyed that.
Ukrainians hate Russia, do not trust it, and greatly fear it.
I doubt Ukraine will support roads, bridges, or other infrastructure to encourage and support trade, since they can also be used to support invasion.
With no European trading partners, Russia's economy will stagnate for a long long time.
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Don't confuse science with technology.
Science feeds technology, but they are not the same.
I design solar electric systems for commercial and residential applications.
IMO, the science is there, and it can be done.
BUT -- the technology is not fully matured.
1. We do not have the reverse supply chain set up to deal with solar panels at the end of their lives.
2. Battery tech is not there yet. Lithium batteries will eventually catch fire or explode.
I personally will not get a lithium battery powered car. There are car ferries in Europe that have burnt and sunk because of EV's catching fire.
3. We have not figured out the mix of non-fossil fuel technologies that would be best. When should we use solar, wind, nuclear, or other techs.
4. Other techs are being researched. Batteries are being researched to find something better than lithium as the prime chemical. Wave and water current power is being researched, and may become a major contributor. I am confident a non-fossil fuel energy infrastructure is in our future.
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Unfortunately, it won't come fast enough to avoid the melting of Greenland and the WAIS, and the 70 foot sea level rise that will result .
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We will need to move cities inland from the current coast lines. We will have to allow migrations of peoples to new homes and cities.
This will be the challenge for humanity over the next several centuries.
Will we do it with kindness and cooperation??
Or, will we resort to war, and abandoning our fellow humans to their fates??
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That is our choice. What shall we do???
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Huh?? Hitler was NOT trying to start a war when he did.
He was, at that point in time, just constructing Greater Germany.
He got Austria and Czechoslovakia (which used to be part of Austria-Hungary.
He wanted to unite East Prussia with the main part of Germany.
He wanted the Danzig Corridor. That was denied.
So, he took it.
AND, he was not expecting France & Uk to go to war over that.
I mean, little old Poland and its Danzig Corridor??
They didn't go to war over Rhineland, or Austria, or Czechoslovakia...
So, why would they go to war over Poland??
They would be crazy to do that, so Hitler thought, I believe.
Remember, Hitler liked the british. He didn't like the French, but he respected them.
He did want Lebensraum, which did mean farming, too.
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Just read J Sachs ideas on a multi-polar world.
1. The US does not stop ANY country from growing and expanding --- as long as they don't threaten others, and play by the rules. China benefitted from this, until they started threatening everyone.
2. Sachs talks about China as if they are an innocent actor, not threatening anyone. Well, dozens of nations have been threatened with war by China, or at least some dire unnamed threat. Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, US, Canada, UK, SK, Taiwan, Malaysia, and others have been so threatened.
3. China flouts the UN, international law, and tradition by claiming the SCS as internal sovereign waters.
If the US was not here to obstruct China, who could stop China from enslaving other countries, like they did to Tibet??
Democracy Now is deeply flawed in its positions and attitudes.
Has Democracy Now become a mouthpiece for Putin??
(BTW -- I notice it had no mention of Ukraine in it this broadcast.)
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Israel is no longer the local bogeyman, with every Muslim country seeking its destruction.
Jordan, Egypt, and Arabia have made peace, or at least accommodation to Israel.
Syria?? It has other problems.
Israel's main problem with Syria comes from Iran's Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon.
If Iran wants to take on Israel, it will have to do it on its own.
And, Iran must not expect anyone, like Iraq, from stopping Israel striking at Iran.
When Israel overflies anyone, they will protest and object,
BUT, they won't stop or interfere in any way.
Israel will say, "sorry, we had not choice, would you like some potato pancakes?"
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Trumpsters LOVE contradictions. They espouse hate, but claim to be Christians, for instance.
Though Christ said "Judge not, Lest ye be judged". Trumpsters judge, condemn, and hate all the time.
Hate defines them.
And now they put up for the Supreme Court, one of their own. One who hates and rapes.
One who will serve his master, Trump.
FOX News and all those who support Trump will support him, no matter what contradictions, lies, and distortions they have to do to do it.
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Imagine if you had promised a friend to fix his car if it broke down.
It breaks down, but your friend says, "Just give me your tools, I will fix it myself".
You would say to yourself, "Wow, that was easy.", and you would lend him the tools.
Well, we promised to defend Ukraine when they gave up their nukes.
Ukraine only wants us to lend them the tools to defend themselves.
They, don't want our troops. They will fight and die for their own country.
We promised.
We owe it to them.
If we don't, then we will be dishonorable, disloyal, lying pieces of crap, IMO.
If we don't help them to the FULLEST of our abilities, then we will be shamed forever in history.
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Lei, seems Xi disagrees with you.
China's wolf warrior diplomacy, and fishing fleet aggression,
has been deemed so successful, that Xi and CCP are
deploying it now against Malaysia and Indonesia.
Relations between Malaysia and Indonesia with the US have been good,
but neither would be described as allies of the US, I believe.
With Chinese aggression, trying to stop oil exploration in their EEZ waters,
I think both countries will look to US, the Quad, and AUKUS for protection.
As China flexes it muscles, US gets stronger.
Isn't that interesting???
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It was FDR and the Democrats that started Farm Price Support bills. Food Stamps were started, in part, to create a market for farm products that were going unsold during the Great Depression.
Farmers could not sell their crops, while millions starved. Food Stamps were a great win-win, that both parties supported - until recently.
Now, the farmers don't understand how they fit into our country, and have turned on the Democrats, and against Food Stamps and other Progressive policies.
They forgot how they benefit from Democratic policies. The farmers and those in rural areas now comprise the "Red States". This has resulted in Trump, Moscow Mitch, and the rest of the Republican gang who are selling out our country to Putin.
The fact the Trump and Republican policies are hurting farmers and rural people the most does not surprise me. They don't care. They will just blame the Democrats and the "liberals", even though they controlled the government for 2 years, and still control the presidency and Senate.
To the farmers and rural folk, I have to ask -
Why are you so retarded that you elect crooks and criminals into office?
Why do you elect Republicans who want to end the programs that benefit you??
Don't you benefit from Social Security? Medicare? Environmental protections? Conservation? National Parks?? If so, why do you vote for those who want to end those programs?
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If resources were important, then Russia would be the wealthiest country (it's not). Canada is wealthy, but its resources are only partly responsible. Resources were essential to a 18th and 19th century economy.
20th Century economy was more about manufacturing (adding value to resources).
The 21st Century economy will be about Finance & Information, IMO.
That is why places like Switzerland, Israel, Singapore, UK and US will be major players.
I think China's position in the world economy is now in relative decline, (Relative - it will still grow, but other countries will gain on it - India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. South Korea and Japan will keep their per capita lead on China.)
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As a Progressive, I generally agree with you...on this, I don't.
First, the Cold War started when Stalin stated goals was to dominate, and possibly conquer Europe. See - the Berlin Airlift. See -- The Korean War (especially how it started). See the actions of Russia in Quadripartite Germany in the late 1940's.
Second, understand the significance of China's claims to the South China Sea. (it is not about resources). IF Chinae gets to own the SCS, and thus control ALL trade going through it, then all the regional countries will be forced to be vassal states to China.
That means -- Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore -- all become vassal states, or at the very least high subject to China's whims.
The US and Europe have developed a world trading system that is open and free. International tariffs are very low by historical standards.
Now, China has been using mercantile trade policies to take advantage of this system. The US, UK, EU, and many other nations have suffered from this.
Is Trump an idiot?? Yes, I think so. But, I think the state deparment and the defense department is mostly handling this. I doubt Trump had anything to do with the recent visit to Da Nang by our navy, or with the joint naval exercises we have with India and Japan.
I like Progressives, but one problem they often have is little knowledge of world affairs, geopolitics, and diplomacy.
Kyle, I know you do research -- please research this a bit more. Don't just assume that because Trump likes it, that it is wrong (although, that is usually pretty reliable😁😜)
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Sorry, Peter, you are wrong.
The world CANNOT move to regional trade and abandon global maritime trade.
Why???
Simple, too many modern devices need materials and sub-assemblies from around the world in their supply chains.
So, the question becomes -- can supply chains become regionalized??
Probably -- in time.
Rare Earth minerals will have to be produced in South America, Africa, and Asia to make that work.
Fertilizers will have to be made regionally as well.
Unfortunately, food production probably cannot be.
US, Canada, Ukraine, Australia, and Russia will still be the big food producers (especially when the war ends.)
Food trade will not change that much.
Plus, the cost of such change will be high, and global corporations will force politicians to protect their interests.
Remember -- the very FIRST foreign war the US got into (The War of the Barbary Pirates) was done to protect
business interests.
Peter, you call yourself a globalist. You need to re-read post-WW2 history.
Why did Bretton- Woods happen?
Why was the IMF and the World Court created??
Even, why did the US boycott Cuba and make itself addicted to HFC sugar?
World banking and corporate interests are the answers.
All those increased the influence of global corporations and finance in the US.
Also, since stocks in "American" companies are owned by people around the world
"American" companies are not really American anymore.
They exist to satisfy global interests, NOT American interests.
Finally -- American politicians do exactly what their corporate donors tell them to do,
with few exceptions.
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Without an elected central EU government, I don't see how the EU can survive.
The EU must, at some point, make up its mind -- to become a true nation, the United States of Europe,
OR return to being the separate independent sovereign nations they once were, and technically still are, but are not in de facto terms.
Brexit shows that there are huge forces at work to disintegrate the EU. However, I believe there are also forces pushing towards further integration, and, IMO, the creation of a United States of Europe is the best path.
Like the US in the 1780's, the states of the EU must come together in a congress and write a Constitution creating a United States of Europe.
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Oil wealth has created a country of spoiled lazy people. As oil ceases to be desired, and it loses its value, Arabia will be thrust into poverty.
The Arabs will be forced to work. They won't like that. They will feel betrayed.
The Saudi family will be pulled from power.
Will Arabia move towards democracy, or towards strong man rule???
Arabia is not familiar with rule of law, or with the attitudes & traditions needed for democracy.
Therefore, IN MY OPINION, Arabia will fall under a series of dictators.
These dictators will likely justify power with religion, just as the dictators in Iran do.
Like Iran, they may construct powerless democratic looking institutions, and even hold "elections".
But, like Iran, it will be run by dictators.
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Germany is a cheapskate country. The US supports a navy, as well as a land army.
Germany does not even have an adequate land army. It has neither the personnel or the equipment to withstand a Russian attack, despite having a GDP that dwarfs Russia.
Germany, all by itself should be able to defeat Russia.
But, we all know it cannot.
To make a such an important military procurement decision based on politics and personal whim is shameful and grossly incompetent.
Merkel has always regarded Russia warmly. Merkel has made Germany reliant upon Russia for its oil. So, Germany is reluctant to defy or even challenge Russia.
Germany does not support Ukraine very strongly, from what I see. Which is shameful.
Despite all the help that Germany got from the US, Germany does not pay it forward to the Mediterranean states in the EU, who have had problems.
Instead, Germany has used their problems as an excuse to plunder those countries, especially Greece.
True, Trump has been insulting. He is a pretty disgusting person, who insults war heroes, and others who sacrifice for their country. Being insulted by Trump should be worn with honor.
Merkel, though, has used Trump as the excuse to distance Germany from the US. Trump is gone now. Merkel's actions though will have more staying power.
Is Merkel trying to destroy NATO?? She is destroying the EU, so it is to be expected.
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I do not accept that the frequent incursions of Taiwan's ADIZ is a problem for Taiwan, but not for China.
First, China's jet aircraft require more maintenance, and have shorter lives than Taiwan's American jets.
Second, China's aircraft have to fly longer on a mission than Taiwan's jets have to fly responding. So, there will be more wear and tear on China's jets than Taiwan's.
Third, Taiwan is a developed wealthy country, and can easily afford the fuel. In fact, China's continued incursions will train and motivate Taiwan's pilots and planners.
Fourth, China's frequent incursions and threats are driving Taiwan's citizens to be against China, and against re-unification.
All in all, China's tactics are counter-productive, and actually stupid, IMO.
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Like Hitler's Germany before WW2, China needs for any war, to be a short war.
If China gets involved in a long war, which means a war of attrition, then China will lose.
Let me explain, like Germany in WW1 and WW2, China lacks access to the sea.
If China is in a short war, then the disruption to its maritime may be tolerated.
However, a longer war would mean its maritime will be disrupted, maybe disappear totally.
China today is more dependent on maritime trade than Germany ever was in either war.
The loss of imports means China will not have the fuel needed to keep its armies in the field.
The loss of exports means that China won't have the money needed to conduct a long war.
Governments are often brought down, when they fail in war.
Starting a war over Taiwan, or with India, could be the sign of the end of the CCP.
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Under Mao, China isolated itself from the world.
The result?? -- famine & poverty.
Under Ping, China opened to the world, engaged in world trade, and accepted foreign investment.
The result? -- increased wealth, jobs, and abundance. Food, clothes, cars and much more became common everyday items in the new China.
Xi wants to recreate Mao's China.
Xi wants to become the new Chairman, like Mao.
Xi wants to rule for life, like Mao.
The result? --- China will return to famine & poverty, that defined Mao's China.
The big question now is, "will the people of today's China, tolerate the famine & poverty, that the Chinese of the 50's and 60's endured?"
I doubt they will.
If they don't, then how can Xi and the CCP survive???
.
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Xi has done such a good job of making everyone hate China, that all the countries in the region have little problem convincing their citizens to back increased defense spending, and opposition to China.
China is expanding its military. But, can it match all of its nascent enemies increased military spending??
Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Australia have increased their military spending.
The US, meanwhile, is transferring assets and its focus to the Indo-Pacific.
New base at Palau. Re-occupation of Subic Bay. Port visits in Da Nang. Joint naval exercises with India, Japan, and Australia.
Coordinated Freedom of Navigation cruises in the SCS with UK, Australia, Japan, India, France, and others.
China cannot win.
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Not inevitable, but it might happen.
Trump proved that, when upon being briefed when just becoming president, he asked, "why don't we use them?".
He was serious. Not joking.
To me, that says there will be a leader somewhere, someday, who decides to use them, thinking they give him an advantage.
Look at China, they behave like no one will fight back. When they attacked India recently, they seemed surprised, if not shocked, when the Indian army fought back.
A leader, like Xi, who thinks countries won't fight back or strike back are very dangerous.
We have been lucky, so far. Both US and USSR behaved rationally.
I don't have that confidence in Iran, or North Korea, and not even China.
Iran, especially, seems to have a martyr ideology. Do they think that dying for their cause is a good thing?? Could they be willing to start a nuclear war (once they get the bombs) knowing they will be destroyed? Could they do this in the hope of destroying Israel, too?
I am older now, but I remember the 50's and 60's when the threat of nuclear war was real.
Now everyone assumes that it hasn't happened. Everyone has been sane after all.
So, we all assume that no world leader will push the button.
I fear that assumption is wrong.
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You mention, and then you drop the discussion of Taiwan's anti-ship missiles.
1. HOW can China stop Taiwan from making the Taiwan Strait into a killing zone??
Taiwan's missiles are hidden and/or hardened. Taiwan has been producing these missiles for over a decade,
and must have thousands.
So, HOW can China's invasion fleet even reach Taiwan.
2. China will attack Taiwan's airfields, very true.
HOWEVER -- airfields can be quickly repaired, I believe, especially if you are prepared to the repairs.
BTW...I do think Taiwan should get either F-35B's, and/or Gripens which are designed to operate off of highways and short runways.
3. You fail to mention Taiwan's submarines which are armed with the excellent Mark 48 US torpedoes. They sink ships from 30+ miles away. It's not like WW2, where they look through a periscope and fire.
Just the Mark 48 torpedoes from Taiwan subs can sink the Chinese invasion fleet.
4. Regarding air power --- China needs to establish air DOMINANCE, not mere air superiority for victory.
Mere air superiority means that just ONE Taiwanese attack aircraft could sink several ships unloading troops.
Several aircraft could wreak total havoc on a landing force.
5. The landing beaches are few. Easily mined, and obstructed. Also, the landing areas would all be pre-targeted by artillery and rockets. During landing, the invaders lack mobility and ability to easily defend themselves. They are very vulnerable.
Taiwan will likely have the ability to attack and defeat them at that point, if they even get that far.
6. The Chinese of 2022 are very different from the Chinese of 1950 when they attacked in the Korean War. These Chinese are the spoiled single children that China mandated. They are not used to sacrifice, and danger. Look at how cowardly they behaved
when they attacked India in Galwan valley.
7. Corruption plus lack of real experience means that China's military is not likely to be well trained. Poorly trained troops break and run at the first difficulty. I suspect China's military reports lies to Xi and the CCP about their abilities, which would explain both the Galwan Valley attack, and the result of the attack.
8. WHEN China attacks Taiwan -- they will be defeated quickly and completely.
That will be the end of the CCP.
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BTW - If China is allowed make the SCS sovereign territory - then the following countries will become dependent on China since China will control their maritime trade ----
Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, India, and Australia.
All those countries (if they are smart) should join an alliance with the US and UK to oppose China's SCS claims.
China's bullying tactics should not be tolerated.
1. Sanctions should be imposed to punish bullying
2. Western corporations should be dissuaded, even penalized, from having manufacturing operations in China.
3. Member navies should maintain 24/7/365 presence in the South China Sea.
4. Any shipping vessel that replies to China's requests for identity and permission should be penalized by their flag country. China should not be allowed to behave like they have authority over the SCS.
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Regarding the idea that China and India can just "choose" to be friends -- I disagree.
They cannot CHOOSE to be friends, until they change their ideas of what they want, especially China.
India can be friends to China, because India has NO ambitions regarding China.
China, though, has ambitions. China wants to be master of Asia.
They already announced that they want parts of Siberia back from Russia, for instance.
Now, if India would not mind submitting to China, there would be no problem.
India, on the other hand, has intentions of building upon its independence.
Its only fear, since 1948, is that it would become a puppet of UK, or US, or other great power.
It chose the Soviet Union, IMO, because the Soviet Union was a weak economic power, so they had little to fear from it.
UK and US, however, had huge financial industry, that scared India. They did not want foreign banks to come in and control.
India saw how UK took over Egypt, and how it used its economic power to control
So, that fear was rational, IMO.
Things have changed. World finance has become more diffused.
India has grown economically. India has less to fear from that today.
Anyway, China and India cannot be friends, until China abandons its ambitions to control Asia.
I do think the next 10 to 15 years will be very dangerous. Xi is ambitious, and not too bright.
He is cunning, ruthless, and determined.
But, the wolf warrior diplomacy, and other tactics, prove the basic ignorance and stupidity of Xi and the CCP.
The problem with stupid people, is that they are not open to new ideas, or reconsidering held positions.
Do not expect China to alter its current policies.
Any war that China starts, is doomed to failure.
Yet, China will likely start a war in the near future.
Like I said, they aren't too bright.
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If, and that is a big IF, the China/US problem had remained a trade problem -- then Biden may have reversed Trump's policies.
HOWEVER, Xi, the idiot leader, has transformed the issue into one of human rights, genocide, democracy, and rule of international law as established by the UN.
I doubt there is ONE American leader or Congressional politician that will side with China now.
In fact, all the arms sales and other actions that required Congressional approval were all passed almost unanimously.
That is amazing, considering that the R's and D's hate each other so much.
Xi has done the impossible in unifying the R's and D's, on at least one issue.
Of course, Xi's recent claim of Vladivostok and other Russian territory will make US & Russia allies --- another once impossible feat.
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You could have explained more about the resources available to both sides - population, economy, industrialization, etc.
Also, you could have mentioned that Germany learned a lot from observers of the American Civil War, especially about the usage of railroads.
For some strange reason, no European powers took note of the success of the almost semi-automatic Henry rifles. In fact, even in WW2, the US had the only regular issue semi-auto rifle for its troops. Semi-auto action was common in hand guns from Mauser to Colt, yet no nations used it in their standard issue rifles, except for US in WW2. I wonder if the logistics & supply guys worried that they would not be able to supply their troops with increased ammo they would be firing???
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The EU is fatally flawed. You cannot have a single currency without a single fiscal policy --- AND --- you cannot have single fiscal policy without being a single country.
The United States works because it is a UNITED country.
The EU is failing because it is not.
The imbalances between the countries cannot be dealt with. The nations with advantage want to stick it to the ones disadvantaged.
Britain left. Now Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece will suffer, until they, too, bite the bullet and leave. Leaving will be painful --- but, in the long run, they have no choice.
After they leave, the "prosperous" countries imbalances will show up. Then the "disadvantaged" will be taken advantage of, and will have to leave.
In the end, Germany may stand alone.
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I believe the COVID-19 pandemic has little to do with China's military adventurism, nor with its isolation. The pandemic is being used by India, US, and other nations to justify isolating China, but, IMO, this would have been done anyway.
Long before COVID, China was bullying and threatening India, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan, US, UK, Canada, Sweden, etcc.
China's effort to gain full sovereignty over the SCS, in attempt to make it like an internal waterway, is an attack on the countries of the region and of the world.
China's total physical and legal control over all ships using the SCS is unacceptable. It is an act of war, since it threatens blockades on all countries using it. The SCS MUST remain part of international waters. The EEZ usage claims of Vietnam, Philippines, et al, do not alter its usage as international waters, while China's claim of "sovereignty" does.
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That is a consistent problem with studios.
They have a good director who makes them a ton of money on a small, or limited budget film ---and then they think "Wait a minute, he made us10x our investment on some cheap films, if we give him 10x the money, then we will make 100x. Let's do it."
From that we get movies like "Cleopatra", or TGTBTU (which is bloated and over-rated),
Heaven's Gate, Waterworld, and so many more.
BTW, despite what people say, I put 2011 Space Odyssey in that category, too.
Film could have been so much better with tighter writing & editing.
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The US is committed to Ukraine defeating Russia.
Other nations may stop their support,
but US, Poland, Finland, Baltic states, will support Ukraine until victory.
UK, Canada, and Australia will also likely continue.
Germany, France, Benelux, and the rest of NATO, I am much less sure of.
Germany and France are the least enthusiastic, and talk in terms of surrender, so are unreliable, IMO.
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Finally, the Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization is being formed, using NATO as its model.
IPTO should include US, India, Japan, and Australia (Quad) of course.
It should also include Vietnam Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, as well.
South Korea could be a member, although it is on the periphery.
The first course of action of IPTO would be to recognize Taiwan.
After recognition, Taiwan should be invited to join IPTO.
I would expect the HQ of IPTO to be Ho Chi Minh CIty.
It is centrally located, and is in one of the smaller countries, just as NATO has its HQ in Belgium.
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China is done, and there will be no "next" China.
First, supply chains need to be closer to home.
Second, low cost producer due to low wages is not what it once was.
Automation is a bigger part of manufacturing, and its cost is basically the same everywhere.
Third, reliability of supply is important. Having low cost manufacturing in an unstable country or region brings too much risk.
For instance, China keeps threatening war with Taiwan. If that happens, the SCS and the region becomes a war zone. Maritime shipping may become expensive, or even impossible.
Even if a company loves China, can they put themselves in such risk?
Better to shift manufacturing to South America, Africa, or Indian Ocean region.
(BTW - that means that shifting manufacturing to Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, or ROK may not be adequate. )
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Living in England for a few years, I got a little irritated with the attitude that they thought they knew world geography. Sorry, but knowing where Paris or Amsterdam is, does not constitute the world. I found the British knew nothing of Chicago, my home town, while I knew about Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, etc. They knew nothing of most of the states, while I knew about York, Devon, Isle of Skye, Midlands, etc. I found that they had a passable knowledge of Europe, but were very ignorant of Africa and Asia, although they did tend to know Hong Kong, India, and South Africa - probably because they are ex-colonies.
Truth is most people around the world do not know geography very well. Often, they do not even know the geography within their own country, especially if it a large country, with profoundly different regions.
A pompous attitude about knowledge of geography is asinine. No matter who you are, there will be huge swaths of the globe where your knowledge of the topography, people, culture, economy, customs, and politics is going to be almost nil.
Get over yourselves.
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I think there is a fundamental misreading of America, and its withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Middle East.
First, becoming engaged in the world is Progressive tradition. Progressivism gave us the Berlin Airlift, the Marshall Plan,
the UN, the World Bank, and the IMF.
Supporting the Saudi Government, oil companies in the Middle East, and our oil interests have nothing to do with Progressive politics, philosophy, or tradition.
That is mere corporatism.
The initial attack on Afghanistan was done to punish it for 9/11. However, 20 years there proved there was another agenda, that had nothing to do with defending the United States. From what I can tell, our 20 years there had to do with the CIA and the poppy cocaine trade.
Leaving Afghanistan does NOT mean we will abandon our allies, or not defend the freedom of the seas.
BOTH Progressivism and Corporatism means we MUST defend Japan, ROK, Taiwan, Philippines, and Australia.
WHY?? We have too much money involved, or would like to be involved with those countries.
We know SE Asia is the major growth area for the world (or Africa??), and we want the ability to participate.
China's control of the maritime trade of SE Asia cannot be tolerated, for that would freeze US out of the area.
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China has created its enemies.
All of its neighbors have increased military spending.
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia,
Australia, Malaysia, and India have increased defense spending.
The US is expanding bases in the Philippines, and building a new base in Palau.
UK, Germany, and France from Europe are helping in FON patrols in the SCS, Taiwan Strait, and ECS.
China has created a real problem for itself.
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Why do you ignore Easter, herself??
Easter, as far as I know, was a Celtic Goddess of Fertility.
In fact, Christianity had a habit of incorporating traditions and rituals of absorbed people (I don't want to use the word "conquer").
For instance, "Christmas" absorbed the mistletoe and holly rituals and beliefs from the Druids of Gaul.
The Christmas Tree was either a Celtic or Germanic symbol for how life survives the death of winter. Holly, an evergreen, also represented the continuation of life to Pagans.
What I find interesting, is that the northern peoples of Europe kept the name "Easter" for the spring, along with the symbols of fertility - the bunny and the egg.
In places, Christianity is very thin. Scratch, and you will find Pagan beliefs, traditions, and origins hiding just beneath.
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As a Progressive Democrat, I hope Biden will have our military re-occupy the bases we left in 1979.
We don't need the same troop levels we had than, but a few thousand would be good.
I also hope Biden will recognize Taiwan as an independent nation.
I also want Biden to lead in the creation of the Indo-Pacific Alliance,
which would include - US, India, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Philippines, South Korea,
Indonesia, Malaysia, and hopefully, Taiwan.
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Republicans are scorpions.
An old Indian story::::::
A dog is getting ready to cross a wide swift flowing river.
A scorpion comes up to it, and says.....
"Can you take me across the river, please?"
The dog says, "NO, you will sting me and I will drown".
The scorpion says, "I would drown too. It is not in my interest to sting you. You can trust me".
The dog thought -- the scorpion won't sting, since he would drown, too. That made sense.
So, the dog allowed the scorpion to climb onto its head, as he entered the water"
In the middle of the swift river, the scorpion stung him.
As the dog stiffened, and became unable to swim, he managed to say,
"WHY??? why did you sting me? Now we will both die."
The scorpion calmly said, "I am a scorpion".
Republicans are scorpions. They cannot help, but lie. They cannot help, but support corruption.
They cannot help, but support treason. They cannot help, but support war and death.
They cannot help, but take money from the poor, while supporting the super rich with no taxes and large government contracts. They steal from us, to give to the super rich.
(BTW -- super rich is over $100,000,000. If you don't have at least that much, you are a target, too.)
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There are ways for countries to have disputes without threatening war, or ridiculing & insulting the other.
Iceland & UK have disputes over fishing rights. Canada and US has had disputes. Disputes between countries are quite common, I believe.
What is different about China is their confrontational approach. China elevates what should be a minor issue into a highly tense war threatening situation.
That is quite bizarre, really.
At first, countries were somewhat confused by China's bluster, not knowing how to respond.
Now, countries are used to China's histrionics, and are deciding to ignore it.
India, US, and Japan are calling China's bluff. Basically saying, well if you want war, go ahead and start one, we are prepared.
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+ NATO, UN, WTO, IMF, and other world institutions created by the United States are
all Progressive institutions. It was Progressives that created the Marshall Plan that saved Europe from Communism.
At the time, both Democrat and Republican parties were Progressive in their outlook.
Progressivism compels us to be involved in the world, not to shrink from it.
Trump, like the "America Firsters" of the 30's, wants us to shrink from the world.
Trump and his gang want the US to abandon NATO, Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.
Trump and his gang want the US to stop defending freedom and the rule of law in the world.
Too many Americans don't understand how defending our values in the world, will save us
having to fight for them here.
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Ireland is doing great, finally. But, is it the only primarily Catholic country that is doing well??
Italy and Spain have not done better than Protestant northern Europe, since the 1500's.
The ex-colonies that were primarily Protestant -- Canada, US, Australia, South Africa, Jamaica, and New Zealand have all have had better economies, and richer citizens.
Is the Philippines being effected by its Catholic heritage?? Is there something about Catholicism that stops people from excelling??
As an ex-Catholic, I remember being taught that life was meant to be hard and unfair, but that we will get rewarded after we die and go to heaven. Could that pessimistic fatalistic view of life be part of what holds Catholic countries back??
I wonder.
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BTW, Freedom of Religion is not total, either.
For instance, religions are not allowed to practice human sacrifice, which was once rather common around the world.
Religions are not allowed to practice polygamy -- look at restrictions on both Mormons and Muslims regarding polygamy.
Religions are not allowed to impose any codes of law. Even though Sharia is not allowed specifically, only the governing bodies, towns, counties, states, and the federal government are allowed to legally imprison people or confiscate their property.
Religions cannot impose taxes, though voluntary tithing is common.
A Church or religion cannot do these things. At least, I don't think so. God, I hope not.
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What makes you think Jesus died on the cross??
The evidence says otherwise.
1. The Cross was a means of tortured execution. A person put on a cross was meant to suffer for days before they died.
2. Jesus was on the cross only several hours, according to several analyses of the Biblical tale.
3. He was stabbed in his side, but it did not seem to be a mortal ruin.
4. A Roman soldier put salt on Jesus's wounds. Well salt was expensive then, and actually used to pay their salary (a word that comes from the word "salt") Salt was used as a topical antiseptic then, and used to treat wounds so they won't get infected. That Roman soldier was being nice to Jesus, not mean.
5. After Jesus was taken down, he was put in his crypt. Later he was gone. Isn't that an indication he didn't die?? Since he was on the cross for only a few hours, he was most definitely alive when he was taken down.
BTW...do note, the Bible never says he was dead when taken down from the cross. It allows the reader to believe it, but it does NOT state clearly that he was dead.
6. His followers would hide him to protect him. So, they would claim he had died, to foil anyone wanting to make sure he died.
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Well the states are definitely unstable. Egypt is stable, since its people have a clear identity as Egyptian.
But, Libya may fall apart. Syria may fall apart. Lebanon? who knows. Iraq may fall apart. Yet, Mesopotamia is an ancient region, with an ancient identity, so it might survive.
IMO, Islam has lost its power as a unifying force because of all the violence done in its name.
If you actually talk to Muslims, you will find that many have lost faith in it.
They don't accept the intolerant extreme and violent form being promoted by the Wahabbist Saudi Regime. The peaceful forms of Islam are marginalized. Hence, in the US and Europe, a high percentage of "Muslims" are now practicing Christians, Atheists, and Agnostics.
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These are all good choices. I was expecting more known battles. May I suggest:
1. Lexington & Concord - veteran British Army of several thousand were soundly defeated, routed, by citizen militia. After the later Battle of Bunker Hill, the British left New England for good.
2. What no Thermopylae, Marathon, or Salamis? Great underdog Greek victories against the Persians.
3. Siege of Vienna by Ottoman Turks
4. Defeat of Montezuma by Cortez and small band of conquistadors.
5. Battle of Rourke's Drift (told in movie ZULU, with Michael Caine).
6. Battle of Bastogne during Battle of the Bulge, WW2.
7. Boudica's defeat of her 100,000 by the single 14th Roman legion, despite having their back to the River, and holding the low ground.
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Actually, guided rockets are MUCH cheaper than unguided rockets.
IF you are assessing cost per target.
Let's say you want to hit a warehouse that is 100'x100', and you are 15 miles away.
If you are firing unguided rockets --- how many shots will it take for you to hit it?
Now also assume that your ammo is old, and has degraded, so each shell us less accurate than normal. It might take you 50, 100, or you may never hit the target.
A GPS guided shell, though, will easily hit a 100'x100' target -- first time.
So, the cost of one guided HIMARS missile is $100,000.
The cost of one unguided artillery shell is about $1,000.
As we see, Ukraine hitting dozens of ammo dumps is destroying Russia's ability to conduct war.
It is a game changer.
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@Dumertone Thank you very much for the info. Try as I might, I only know what I read. You live there. You know so much more on a deeper level. But, much of what you said validated much of what I already thought. Putin fears and hates democracy more than anything.
However, Turkey & Russia are traditional enemies - for centuries. Pissing on your allies is not usually a good idea, IMO. At some point, Turkey may have to face Russia on his own. If you don't act like an ally, you may not be treated as an ally.
Much more divergence from NATO, and the US could move its Incerlik base to Greek Cyprus (UK has base there). Then Turkey could be kicked out of NATO.
From commenters from Turkey, it seems a lot of Turks are not happy with Erdogan's shift away from Europe. If so, than he may have to be harsher to keep his power. Erdogan is not in the same unassailable position Putin is in, I think.
I don't see a Putin/Erdogan alliance, either.
So, does Erdogan have a plan? Has he thought his policies through? I doubt it.
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Effort has little to do with battlefield victory.
When armies lose, when is it due to lack of effort?
The Germans put forth great effort, and lost WW2.
The French put forth great effort but lost the opening Battle of France.
No. Training, organization, strategy, tactics, and execution give victory.
The Russian military is putting for great effort.
But, poor training, poor supplies, poor leadership, poor morale, and more
have destroyed its ability to win.
We now all know that Ukraine will win this war.
The only questions are when, how, and what will be the conditions of peace??
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@TheHistoryGuyChannel I think much more was going on.
The book Slave Nation makes a very good argument that the Revolutionary War done to retain slavery.
1. Consider the Somerset Case and English Common Law. The precedent it set would eventually set the slaves in the colonies free, too. Therefore, the slave owners in the South, and the Slave Traders in Boston wanted to maintain the slave system. Which also explains the Boston/Virginia axis, and why New York was hardly involved. (didn't you ever find that strange? I did.)
2. The book Redcoats & Rebels talks about how King George begged for a compromise, but the Americans stood on principal. WTF??? Yankee traders travel the world making all kinds of shady deals, and they couldn't cut King George a deal???
Something else was going on, IMO. The Colonies had to be free.
3. The rabble rousing across the colonies seemed too well coordinated and funded to be truly spontaneous. Also, IMO.
Sam Adams, Patrick Henry, etc.. it seems very well calculated.
Don't forget the guy who really signed the Declaration of Independence with his flourishing signature was John Hancock, who is NEVER talked about in history books.
Who was he?? -- A smuggler, and one of the richest men. Could he have been financing Sam Adams, Patrick Henry, and other rabble rousers??
Just look at how Fox, Brietbart, and others today are financed by both domestic and foreign monies.
There is more to the Revolutionary War than the standard story, IMHO.
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You, and others, refer to the CSIS war game study of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, and point out the dire consequences for our military.
I do not accept that interpretation. The CSIS study seems incompetent to me for two major reasons ----
1). Taiwan is depected as punching bag that does not hit back. Taiwan is NOT a pinata , that China can hit freely.
Taiwan has thousands of anti-ship missiles -- HF-2, HF-2e, and HF-3.
Taiwan makes the most advanced chips, and there is NO REASON to believe that Taiwan has not used them to create
world class sensors, avionics, and ECCM systems to make their missiles robust and hard to kill.
If I am correct, the Taiwan will likely sink China's invasion fleet BEFORE the US has time to respond.
2) Now this point is the one that makes me see the CSIS study as incompetent ---
CSIS claims that the US would lose FOUR (4) nuclear subs.
Huh?? How is that???
As far as I know, China cannot locate ANY of our subs, let alone target and kill them.
So unless our Navy plans on having our subs surface in Shanghai harbor, that stated outcome is ridiculous.
Alex, it does give me pause that YOU credit the CSIS study as being valid. You MUST know something I don't.
What do you know??
Does Taiwan not have anti-ship missiles?
Can China find, track, target, and kill our nuclear subs??
You must think these are facts to accept the CSIS study.
What is the truth??
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Shervan, the flaw in your analysis is that you assume no response by other nations.
Do you really think the other nations of the region will allow themselves to become vassals of China without resistance??? Do you really think that??
Already, Japan, India, US, and Australia are strengthening the Quad -- soon, I expect a NATO-like alliance to be created (Indo-Pacific Alliance?).
China will have to face and intimidate an alliance.
China's navy will NOT be as big as US/Japan/India/Australia/UK/Vietnam/Philippines/Singapore, and probably a few more.
China's attempt to dictate to others with no allies, and no one liking them is doomed to failure.
PLUS -- the demographic collapse, and the coming economic collapse of China will prevent China from achieving that goal.
In this case, Shervan, I think you fell into the "extrapolation trap". Many analysts who try to predict the future fall into it. Extrapolations of recent trends into the future using extrapolations have the inherent flaw of assuming the future won't change course.
It always does.
Already, the conditions that enabled China to build and expand its navy is coming to an end.
China just cancelled a large carrier, for instance.
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Republicans when their racism is pointed out, will first deny it.
Then after denying it, they attack the person they were racist towards --
-- calling them rotten evil people who deserved to be treated that way.
Look at how the head of the Minneapolis Police Union demonized the dead George Floyd,
saying he was a criminal, who he implied deserved to die - that society will be better off without George Floyd.
Republicans have OK setting themselves up as judge, jury, and executioner -- when the target is a black, latino, Native American, or some other disadvantaged group.
BTW -- being white is no protection, if you are deemed "liberal", "leftist", or "subversive" you can feel their wrath. BTW, those include all Democrats, as far as they are concerned. LOL.
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Seems to me that the 20th Century has been a demographic disaster for Russia.
In 1900, the population was around 140 million, and the population of the world was 1.6 Billion.
In 1900, 8.75% of the worlds population was Russian, China's was 400M for 23.5%, and US was 76M for 4.5%.
Today, out of 7.8 Billion, Russia has 146 M for 1.87%, China has 1,439M for 18.7%, and US has 331M for 4.24%.
Interestingly, only America and India (17%) have maintained their percentages of world population.
This fall of Russia from having lots of people to having much fewer is a major issue for Russia.
I would like to see more discussion and analysis of this.
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To think China can invade and conquer Taiwan in an "easy" invasion means that one has no idea of the difficulties of amphibious assault.
1. Air superiority is required, air dominance desired. To get air superiority 80 mi away would be difficult. Taiwan has its own air force and modern air defense systems. China would lose many planes, with a little likelihood of success.
2. China's invasion fleet would be sitting ducks for Taiwan missiles, and artillery.
3. Taiwan would oppose the landings. Whenever landings are opposed, casualties will be high.
4. Even if an army is landed, will it be able to conquer and subdue Taiwan in a short period of time??? 24 Million people may not surrender quickly, or easily. If the time is long, and casualties high, will the CCP be able to absorb that? Will the CCP lose the confidence of the people of China?
ALSO -- the world will react, and it will hit China hard in its economy. Exports will drop like a rock. Banking and trade sanctions are likely to imposed by US, UK, EU, and most advanced countries. Most have trade deficits with China and would love an excuse to not pay their debts, and to impose trade barriers.
The Taiwanese are very different than the mainland Chinese. In 1950, the differences were not so great, I think. But, today they are profound.
Would China really want to bring 24 million people who like democracy and rule of law?? Wouldn't that population be an eternal challenge to the CCP???
China would have to be harsh and cruel. The subjugation would take decades. The world would look on with horror.
Chinese goods would not be wanted in the world market.
I don't see China being so stupid to invade.
However, I do think Xi is that stupid.
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China's biggest problem is that they believe their own propaganda.
If a war occurs, I think it will stem from China overestimating its abilities.
That may occur on the Indian/China border, but can just as easily occur in the SCS.
Big question is how will China respond when India reacts strongly, attacking in force, killing and destroying a lot;
or, Vietnam or Japan react in force, sinking ships and downing planes.
Will China take the embarrassing defeat? Or, will China, to save its pride, then react in stronger force starting a larger war???
I think the latter course. China has not had a war on its territory since WW2, and may have forgotten the horrors of war.
So, it may blithely choose war.
Big mistake.
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Iran, IMO, is the only nations of the Middle East with the geography, economy, and people to become a regional power.
That is their natural position, IMO.
The only thing really stopping them, is themselves.
A regional power will NOT be allowed to exercise its power,
IF it puts itself in opposition to the world order.
The world order is more than the US.
The world order is the US, EU, world bank, IMF, world court, world stock exchanges, the community of international corporations, etc.
Iran has put itself in opposition to this world order.
It will NOT be allowed to be a regional power UNTIL it gives it up, and joins the club.
BTW - the club does not give a damn about their religion.
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The causes of Germany's defeat on the Eastern Front are many. One of the causes was the greater resources and manpower available to Russia. Also, Germany had to fight on two fronts, Russia did not. If it was strictly Germany against Russia, it might have been very different.
However, there were other profound reasons ---
-- Germany's lack of oil. Romania could not supply enough oil. Its chronic shortage effected both logistics and strategy.
-- German tank design and construction caused breakdown and repair problems. Russia vastly outproduced Germany in armor. Plus, Russian tank design was superior overall.
-- Germany fought the war basically alone, while Russia received huge supplies from the US.
-- Russian intelligence was superior to Germany's. For instance, Russia knew the German battle plan before the Battle of Kursk. Zhukov knew exactly where to put his defenses.
Operationally, I do believe the Germans were superior. I don't think Russia fully recovered from the pre-war purges.
As usual, the truth is more complex, thus it lies somewhere in-between the two extremes.
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This video complains that democracies are poor at decision making, and hard to build consensus.
While China can make decisions quickly, and implement things fast.
B UT...China's approach has huge costs.
1. Fast decisions results in common people having their land stolen, being abused, and put in jail
Civil rights have little meaning in China. There is no independent judiciary.
2. Politicians being at each others throats in the US?? Well, that has ALWAYS been the case.
You should read about the political battles that took place from 1796 to 1816. They were horrendous.
They were as bad, or worse, than the politics of today.
Politics is US was usually rough. The nice politics that prevailed after WW2 was the anomaly.
YET, US advance, prospered, and became the leading power, despite all its flaws.
3. The US has some HUGE advantages over China. We get along with most countries. China gets along with FEW countries.
4. ALL of China's neighbors are building their militaries, in expectation of dealing with China's bullying.
That will result in ALL those nations reducing their trade with China to a minimum.
Japan has pulled out ALL businesses.
US is pulling many out.
This video is so anti-democracy, that I feel it must be funded by China, or Putin.
Democracy is a flawed form of government,
but it is much better than any alternative..
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The biggest problem with analyzing China's economy is the language used.
Our language of "booms", "busts", "slowdown", "downturn", "decline", etc.
are all based on western style markets and their economic cycles.
This is NOT what is happening in China. The language of market cycles do not apply.
Because China used real estate investment as a means of financing its government,
the real estate "crash" is causing a crisis in government.
Imagine what would happen here if government workers, transit workers, teachers, and health workers
were not getting paid?
Or had their pay reduced by 50%??
This is what is happening in China.
Their system is collapsing.
There is no coming back.
Anyone who invests in China now,
is a fool..
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One more thing about China is that since it has threatened, insulted, and alienated almost every nation,
I don't think anyone will offer China any help.
After all, if the Germans and French did not offer the Greece or Italy much help,
what can China expect from the world?
In contrast, remember when a tsunami hit India??
Do you remember all the help that poured out from nations to India?
People like India, so help was quickly and freely given.
If the same thing happened in China,
would you expect a similar outpouring of aid and sympathy for China??
I don't.
Oddly, to save face, I think the CCP would rather Chinese people die,
than to accept foreign help.
To the world, that is sick, but to the CCP, that is normal.
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You missed some very important factors.
1. Even without the trade war, companies would be moving production and sourcing out of China - due to increased trade risk, and due to rising costs.
2. China's belligerent local attitude is driving Vietnam, Indonesia, India, NK, and Japan away. All will likely reduce imports from China to a minimum, so they won't be dependent on China.
3. China's arrogance will irritate other cultures. US has immigrant communities from all over the world, so there are profound deep personal connections with most countries. Vietnamese, Indian, Taiwanese, Korean, and people from so many other countries have lives and businesses in the US.
That creates common connections that China cannot easily counter.
4. China's GDP and other economic numbers are known to be highly inaccurate. The GDP number, for instance, includes all the empty cities that have been built. They are useless, and add nothing to the Chinese economy. The rise of the poor to middle class in China was done mostly by redefining poverty line downward.. So, more Chinese are classified as middle class, even though their earnings may not have changed.
I think China's overtaking of the US is farther off than projected.
I think in the future, it will be seen that China's progress has already been virtually halted, and that China is no longer gaining much on the US.
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@nahtanjacobson3017 Only the Catholic Church was wedded to Latin. The Protestant sects used the vernacular, English here. HOWEVER, education required the learning of language, and classical education required Latin Or Ancient Greek. A classical education often required the reading the Home, Plato, and the Aeneid in the original, untranslated texts.
When I was in HS in Chicago, language was required. German was the language to take, if you were to go into the Sciences, and French, if you were to go into the arts.
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Russia's invasion of Ukraine is having an unexpected, but welcome, effect.
The unity of the west and the power of its sanctions, I believe, have impressed and scared the CCP.
They see what can happen if they attack Taiwan.
The west can freeze, and even take, all their money.
The money corrupt officials have put in western banks and assets could be lost.
Secondly, China uses Russian equipment and doctrine.
The poor performance in Ukraine should make them have a rethink.
Would an invasion of Taiwan fare better than the invasion of Ukraine???
Probably not.
BUT, a failed sea invasion results in many more deaths, as troop ships are sunk.
I think these are good developments, reducing China's hunger for invading Taiwan.
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One more thing, why is India complaining about the US asking Taiwan for something, when Taiwan doesn't seem to mind??
US and Taiwan get along great.
US and India? Not so much.
Sometimes you like us, other times you like to tell US to f**k off.
Personally, I don't like selfish friends, where it is always about how I have to give to them, and I never get anything in return.
That is the way India seems to be.
India likes getting help, but India does not like giving help and assistance to others.
Is that because US is a Christian culture, where giving is valued?
India is a Hindu culture where if you have a problem, then that is your karma, and its up to you to solve your own problem -- is that it??
That is what I get from India's actions, words, and criticisms.
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Republicans, being the cowards and traitors they are, will end up doing what they are told to do.
Republican senators and congressmen are robots, who are used to being told what to say, what to do, and how to vote.
Remember Sen. Collins voting Kavenaugh into the Supreme Court, while saying she believed the women who accused Kavenaugh of sexual assault?? Like a good Republican, she did what she was told.
Republicans have no core value other than obedience to their masters.
Republicans have no loyalties, other than loyalty to their masters.
Big question -- who are the masters that control and direct the Republicans. Are they the 1% super-rich that control the GOP? Or, is is Putin & Russia that direct the GOP???
The way Republicans used talking points lifted directly from Putin's talking points, suggests that the Republicans are guided, if not controlled from Russia.
Anyone who votes Republican is either a fool or a traitor, IMO.
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@AribamDevi I know. I was playing on the words., How changing the order, makes the opposite meaning.
Seriously, though, evil is powerful, too. Evil people like Stalin, Hitler, Putin, et al, cannot be reached by Love, maybe never could.
The horror they can unleash is huge.
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Considering what Rommel was able to achieve with modest resources, I think Germany would have succeeded, if it attacked the Middle East and Africa instead of Russia.
1. Taking Egypt would have closed the Mediterranean to the British.
2. The oil of Kuwait would have been seized, thus giving Hitler all the oil he needed.
3. Just as the Ottoman Empire allied with Germany in WW1, I presume Turkey would have allied with Germany to assist in oil transport, and in the future attack on Russia.
4. The added resources would have made Nazi Germany a tougher nut to crack, lengthening the war by a 2 to 3 years.
5. Japan still would have attacked Pearl Harbor, and America would still have entered the War.
6. The US still would have out produced Germany, and defeated it.
7. The US still would have developed the atom bomb. But, now Germany may have been the victim of it, and not Japan, since Germany would still be fighting in August 1945.
8. The closing of the Suez canal would have hurt Britain, but the US would have supplied all it needed after it entered the war in December 1941.
9. Operation Torch would still have happened. But, the fighting would start in Morocco, since no landings would have been in Algeria, with the loss of Gibraltar.
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Why I expect a Democrat to win the presidency ---
1. The Puerto Rican refugees + the ex-felons getting their voting rights back I expect to increase the Democratic statewide vote by 30,000+. Since statewide races have been traditionally razor thin for either side, this number should make FL a blue state, IMO.
2. Trump barely won PA, MI, and WI with promises of jobs. Well, he didn't deliver. So, he won't win all those states, and in fact will likely lose all three.
3. He needed all those states to win -- FL, PA, WI, and MI. He won't win any, IMO. But, even if he does win some, he won't win ALL. And, he needs ALL to win.
So, Trump is out. IMO.
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I think the EU is unsustainable. I do not see how a common currency can exist without a common fiscal policy and a central bank.
COVID-19 is merely exposing the cracks in the structure.
At some point a decision must be made --- either,
1) the EU creates a central bank, and an elected central government -- basically becoming federated nation state - a United States of Europe, or 2) the EU scraps the Eurozone, and each country goes back to using its national currency.
If the latter, then Italy could cope by devaluing its currency. Each country would have the tools to deal with their economies and fiscal problems. If they suffer, they could not blame other countries.
Personally, I hope that the EU consolidates into a new federated nation state. That is the only way that Europe will be able to maintain itself as a major power.
If not, then by 2050, the major powers will be US, China, India, with Brazil and Indonesia close behind.
None of the nations of Europe will be a major player on its own. Together, united, Europe outclasses all the other major powers - including the US, IMO.
I think Europe could be a major positive influence on the world order. But, that could only happen if it unites.
Europe is still riven with nationalism. They think of themselves as French, German, Italian, Greek, etc. instead of as European.
The United States was like that in the beginning. But, slowly, we came to see ourselves as Americans. Our state is merely where we happen to live. Our identity, loyalty, and allegiance is to the United States in its entirety.
I wish Europeans would make that shift, although, I doubt they can do it.
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These are great. BUT - they are easily seen by radar, therefore easily targeted and destroyed.
Enemies, now, are not prepared for them, so they will be great for a few years.
In time, though, all naval craft will have anti-drone systems.
IMO, they will need to make these semi-submersible.
Travelling just under the surface, with only a thin antenna above the surface.
Instead of complicated submarine mechanics,
I think a simple bladder can act as the submerging device.
It only needs to go down 4 to 8 feet, I think.
It could travel long distances fast above the water, and then go below the surface
when needed.
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Have to disagree, at least a bit.
True, geography will impact mindset and world view.
However, so does culture and history.
The mindset and world view of Pakistan is far different than India, and that has nothing to do with geography.
For me, the biggest influence on the Russian mindset are two things --
1) the horror of the 150 years under the Tatar yoke. They were merciless, and they Russia to a bestial existence.
2) the heavy yoke of Tsarist rule, with imposed serfdom for 350 years.
Russia has only begun to experience normality only in the last few decades.
Russia has no experience or understanding of democracy. Do they even understand charity, or forgiveness? I wonder.
The paranoia of Putin and Russia's acceptance of his paranoia is amazing.
Europe and US were slowly demobilizing, until Putin resurrected Russian 18th Century foreign policy ideas.
But, the key thing was that Russia accepted this paranoia because, to them, it seems reasonable.
Therefore, they are as deluded, and ultimately as stupid as he is.
Putin is destroying Russia, with the cooperation of the Russians.
What idiots. Prisoners of their own misconception and misunderstanding of the world.
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As for the cost of the R&D for procuring it, and the other expensive programs ----
may I remind everyone --- the Defense Department has NEVER been audited since WW2.
Not the Army, not the Navy, not the Air Force, not our base structure, nothing --- EVER.
At least, that is what I have read.
If that is accurate, or even close, then that is a travesty.
Businesses are audited annually for their annual report.
So, HOW can the Defense Department NEVER get audited???
What is being hidden from Congress?? From the American people?
If we are to pay for the military with our taxes,
are we not owed a periodic audit and report on our military???
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If you think there will be a profound change in American policy towards China, you are very very wrong.
First, Biden is not a profound person. He will not make bold moves, IMO.
Second, there is broad Democrat Party support for supporting our allies in the region -- Japan, Taiwan, SK, Philippines, and India.
Third, our cooperation with Vietnam has grown, and will continue to grow.
Fourth, US has supported India selling Brahmos missiles and other arms to the Indo-Pacific nations.
Fifth, Progressive Democrats, much more than the "practical" Republicans are disturbed by China's policies in Hong Kong, genocide of the Uyghurs, threats to Taiwan, and the crazy claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea.
China's policies have changed the US/China dispute from trade (where many Democrats may have opposed the trade war),
to human rights, freedoms, and international law.
So, China should not expect any help from the Biden administration.
In fact, I expect Biden to be just as hard, maybe harder, on China.
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The cost of panels is only a part of the cost. The design and installation costs will not change.
For instance, let's take a project costing $30,000 using current technology.
And, let's say panels became free -- $0 to buy panels.
Would the project go to $0, too?
Of course not. it might be reduced to $15,000, maybe.
So, if Perovskite panels reduce the cost by 50%, the $30,000 project would likely
be reduced to about $22,500.
Still, a reduction of 25% is a lot.
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WTF do you think the US was doing from 1980 to 2018??
US was trying to get China to be a productive partner in the world system.
But, China decided to be destructive, not constructive.
They stole intellectual property, stole patents, stole product designs.
Then they actively undermined other countries.
And, they continually threaten war with its neighbors.
Japan, Australia, India, South Korea, Vietnam, and the US have all been threatened with war by China.
Sorry, that is not acceptable.
The US should take its friendship and partnership elsewhere, to other countries.
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If women want abortion rights, and equal rights, they will have to fight in the political arena.
The judicial victory of Roe v Wade let women and the men who support them think that the war was won.
However, laws were never passed to protect abortion rights.
In fact, the impassioned opponents dominated the political arena.
BUT, that was OK, because Roe v Wade protected us.
Well, not any more.
Women, if you want your rights, you better get your act together,
build your movement, then march, demonstrate, and
MOST OF ALL --- vote the right wing demagogues out of office,
wherever you are.
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@anonyw2993 If you are India, you should not EVER be able to get F-35, since India bought S-400 missile defense system from Russia.
Although, building a cooperative, if not allied, foreign policy and military relationship would be so profound, that we might ease that restriction for India (we did NOT ease that restriction for Turkey.)
Seems to me that it is the avionics, radars, communications, etc that really make a plane successful now.
I think that with the right electronics and radars that a C-130 could defeat an SU-35. If it can see it first, target it first, and fire first, then why not kill it first??
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@BlinkShadow Question: If we abuse our power so much, then why is Europe so wealthy? Switzerland, Norway, and Netherlands are richer per capita than US.
Q: Why don't the EU nations rebel against us?
Q: Why does Germany go nuts every time someone suggests we take our troops home??
US has power, but what lets us keep that power, is that we don't abuse it.
We don't abuse Canada. We don't abuse UK.
We don't abuse Italy.
France?? Well, OK, we abuse them a little, because they are such jerks.
Overall, countries that work with us get rich.
Look at Taiwan, South Korea, Japan,
In fact, here is a movie based on the idea that the best way to prosperity is to start and lose a war with the US. The US treats its foes so well. It is a great comedy with Peter Sellers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5upSKtduGU&t=731s&ab_channel=comedytonite
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I don't think China's navy is tipping any balance.
If anything, China's navy is losing relative.
US, Japan, Australia, Philippines and India are growing closer together.
When conflict comes, it seems highly unlikely that China will have
only one opponent of its choosing.
If China takes on Taiwan, thinking that Taiwan will fight alone,
I think China will be surprised.
Japan cannot afford to let Taiwan fall to China.
So, Japan will definitely help. Japan has satellites that can help Taiwan target Chinese assets.
The US and Japan will keep the East Coast of Taiwan open, so arms and other aid can be supplied.
If Taiwan runs out of missiles, US will resupply her.
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I am so over Hillary. I voted for her. And, I even thought she would was pretty good.
Not perfect. But, I realize I am the only one who is perfect, so I cut politicians a little slack.
Her attacks on Bernie is so pitiful. First, he owed her nothing.
Second, did Biden do as many events as Bernie did for her. NOPE.
Did Warren do as many -- I don't think so.
What about Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Kobuchar, etc -- did they do any? I don't think so.
So, why is she only dissing Bernie??
What's more she disses Bernie without criticizing any of his policies.
Why is that??
Because she knows they are popular.
How do you defeat someone who has popular policies????
Simple, you attack their character.
That is what Warren did. And, now, that is what Hillary is doing.
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Abortion & money are very important in this race.
However, there is a simpler more basic reason why Biden is gaining.
Most people do not follow politics.
Early polls report their party leanings primarily.
For specific candidates they go by old knowledge and past impressions.
As the campaign season develops, the public slowly become more aware, and look more closely at the issues and the candidates.
It is now April, and they are just waking up, IMO. So, the polls are beginning to move.
I expect a pro-Biden move of the polls to continue until election day.
First, the abortion issue will get hotter and hotter. More pundits will talk about it, more comedians will joke about it, and more news reports will address it. The abortion issue has shown its impact in anti-abortion elections in KS, WI, OH, and AL.
Since Republicans have already talked about a national ban, it is now a national issue. It is not isolated to AZ, AL, or just a few states. It is everywhere.
Next, Trump's continuing trials and court appearances will wear down his campaign.
His popularity will erode as fast a salt block in the rain.
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Nothing is invulnerable -- including the platforms and places where anti-ship missiles are launched from.
Whan a ship is destroyed, do you think that is the end of the story??? It isn't, it is the beginning.
The US Navy for instance has the power to hit back, and destroy the bases, ships, and planes that shot the offending missile.
Of course, ALL potential bases, ships, and planes would be attacked -- for war would have started.
Bases attacked. Ports attacked. Cities attacked. Shipping sunk.
Pearl Harbor showed that our fleet was vulnerable. But, that was the beginning, not the end, of that story.
Do you really think the US Navy could be easily eliminated without retribution???
Don't be silly.
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To understand what will happen to China, you must look at US policy.
The current US policy, or Cold War 2, started slow with the pivot towards Asia under Obama.
Under Trump, Pompeo was the driver of the trade war, not Trump, IMO.
The trade war was a fundamental AND PERMANENT shift of US policy.
This is evidenced by the fact that it has accelerated under Biden.
Also, Congressional support for Taiwan is bi-partisan.
Both D's and R's support it. About the only thing they do agree on.
Can't you see the similarity with Cold War 1??
Cold War 1 started under Truman, and then continued for 40 years.
All administrations supported it. No variance in commitment, tactics, or strategy.
In 2025, there will be no change. In fact, US policy will become harsher and more anti-China.
It will happen no matter who is elected president.
This goes much deeper.
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Oh God, not John Mearshiemer again.
He is a prof at the University of Chicago, which has some bright people.
Too bad MearSheimer isn't one of them.
I listened to him, and found his ideas both ignorant and repulsive.
First, he accepts the idea that Russia is a special country whose security concerns
are the only ones to be valid.
Ukraine's security, Poland's security, etc mean nothing.
Secondly, he buys into the Putin myth that since Russia was invaded by the Mongols and Hitler, that it gives Russia the right to commit genocide.
I live in Chicago, and John Mearsheimer is an embarrassment.
PLEASE -- stop referring to him as an expert. He is an idiot, and an unprincipled one at that.
Just because he wrote a book means nothing.
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China has started the conflicts on its many fronts. That is really wild, and pretty stupid, it seems to me.
By doing all these conflicts at once -- Shikaku Islands (Japan), Taiwan, sinking Vietnamese boat, harassing Filipino boat, harassing Malaysia boats, harassing Indonesia boat, threatening Australia, threatening United States. Did I miss one?? I am sure I did. So many. Hard to keep track of them all.
If China had not started these other conflicts, their claim that India was the aggressor might have seemed credible.
As it stands, China just looks like a bullying fool.
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So much ignorance. So much false hope.
1. Climate and cryosphere processes act on large time scales much larger than humans are comfortable with. A "long time" is a blink to the planet.
2. The heat already present in the ocean/air system is enough to drive sea level rise for the next 1000 years, and raise the oceans 70 ft.
How do I know that?? Simple, the oceans were 70 ft higher during the Pliocene - 2.5 mya.
CO2 levels in the atmosphere were only 390 ppm, lower than the 415 ppm today.
PLUS - our CO2 level is rising 2+ppm/year. By 2050, CO2 will be around 485ppm.
But, even if we could STOP CO2 levels rising, and keep them at the current level of 415ppm,
oceans would still rise to Pliocene levels ---- +70 Feet deeper than today.
The only question is how long will it take?? Each year, research indicates it will happen sooner than was predicted the year before.
By 2100, it may only be a meter or two. But, the process will continue to speed up.
So, 2200 may see a rise of 10+ meters.
And, 2300 may see 20+ meters.
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China is already hated and opposed by everyone. If China does this (which it might already be doing on the Mekong.) I think it will pay a big price.
Seeing this, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia who rely on the Mekong will institute their won water management programs.
They will build their own reservoirs, to hold water for use when China holds back water.
Also, China cannot hold water forever. Its reservoirs fill up, and then they have to release it, whether they like it or not.
Countries downstream can have water management facilities to ease either China holding water, or releasing it in flood quantities.
And then, those countries will hate China forever.
Not good, if China wants to have productive trade relationships.
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It is hard to believe that China truly thinks that threatening India will get them anything. India is a big powerful country, fully capable of fighting a war with China, and likely prevail. Yet, China persists.
China's brinksmanship is dangerous, as well. Eventually, a mistake will be made - a jet shot down, or some soldiers killed.
War can start this way.
Meanwhile, India is increasing military cooperation and support with other nations - Vietnam, Australia, Japan, and the U.S.
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If China attacks Taiwan, it must be understood that there are much bigger issues than whether China controls Taiwan or not.
If China takes Taiwan, then China will control the South China Sea ---
THAT is a much bigger problem, let me explain,
IF China controls the SCS, then China will control the maritime trade of many countries in the region.
Philippines, Thailand, Vietname, ROK, Japan, Indonesia, India and others use it for a huge percentage of their trade.
Some of them can be reduced to vassal states to China, since China will control so much of their economies.
THAT is the bigger issue.
The US, Japan, and others CANNOT allow China to hold countries hostage.
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Covid-19 is the excuse, not the reason. The real reason, IMO, is that China has become belligerent, especially threatening Japan's independence in the SCS. China's grab of the South China Sea has nothing to do with resources, but has everything to do with controlling trade. Since most of Japan's trade, and its oil imports go through the SCS, China seeks to control that, making Japan into a client state. Japan would be made subservient.
The same for South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines, and Vietnam.
So, many countries are moving their trade relations elsewhere. They don't want to be dependent on China, which will likely be in small or large wars at some point.
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@FBI True. Still the time is extraordinary.
Consider WW2. In a matter of a few years, we developed F5F, Spitfire, P-47, P-38, Cutlass, B-29, B-25, etc. The SR-71 took only a couple of years. The B-70 only took a few years. The B-57 Hustler, only a few years. Only recently has it taken DECADES to create new planes.
Sorry, I still think something is very wrong.
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BTW, I disagree with his dismissal of "revisionist historians". True, every bonafide historian will revise history through added research, and more considered interpretations based on serious reviews of material. They may revise history, but they are NOT "revisionist historians".
TO ME, the term "revisionist historian" is one that actually denies or discounts proven source material to promote a patently false and politically motivated view. For instance, the holocaust is absolutely proved with thousands of video, audio, and written personal accounts, Nazi camp records and confessions. Yet, there are "revisionist historians' who deny the holocaust. They are trying to rewrite history by writing the holocaust out of it.
"Revisionist historians" are a particularly evil people, that deserve the worst.
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The problem is NOT making Taiwan a porcupine.
It already is one, if you look at its missile defenses.
Taiwan will not lose.
Any Chinese invasion is DOOMED to defeat.
BUT, that is not the issue.
The issue is -- how does Xi and the CCP view Taiwan??
Do they view an invasion as being an easy success??
I think they do.
Xi and the CCP, IMO, believe their own propaganda.
They think Taiwan will quickly surrender if attacked.
They think Taiwan will be awed by China, panic, and beg for peace.
IF I am right, then an invasion attempt is almost inevitable.
BUT, if an invasion occurs, China's defeat will be so fast, and so complete,
that the US won't even have a chance to help.
Q: How can China prevent Taiwan from converting the Taiwan Strait into a killing zone??
A killing zone where HF-2, HF-2e, HF-3, and Harpoon missiles sink China's fleet, and destroy its ports.
How can China stop that??
If someone knows, please explain.
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@nekonohige2 That does not surprise me.
Rahm was NEVER a politician, although he was Mayor of Chicago. He was mostly behind the scene, advising and strategizing.
He is good at that.
BUT, and it is a BIG BUT, he has lousy interpersonal skills.
He has no idea of how to say things in a way that people will accept, or at least not be upset.
IMO, he is a poor choice for an ambassador. Ambassadors ARE politicians, and their first job is to keep friends. LAST job is to make enemies.
To give you an idea, I don't think Rahm has many friends. People respect him, even admire him. He is smart. But, few really like the guy.
Well, you guys got him.
Enjoy.
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You focus on geography & military is imbalanced, IMO. First, true power, today, is determined by economic power. China's power was growing well, and power was accruing to it, as it grew. However, Xi's policies have put a nice end to that.
I agree with your analysis that China is heavily dependent on its exports to US & EU. It's exports to India were growing nicely, too.
The idiot, Xi, is putting an end to that. The South China Sea grab is causing the US and others to rethink their policies, including trade polices, towards China.
Trump's trade war would have happened anyway, no matter who is president. Notice how the Democrats don't criticize Trump on his China policy, even though they deeply disagree with everything else he does. (You won't find any Democrats wearing long red ties, that's for sure, LOL)
If China had stayed with Deng's policies, and furthered their cooperation with and integration into the international trade system, their future growth and power would have been assured.
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Instead of dividing NATO,
Putin has resurrected NATO.
Until Crimea, NATO was on the path of irrelevance,
and dissolution.
NATO countries military spending was way down.
(Except for US, who were irritated with the rest. Europe reminded Americans of
Margaret Dumont in the Marx Bros. film, where Groucho says,
"I am fighting for your honor, which is more than you ever did.")
After Crimea, military spending inched up a little, especially in Eastern Europe.
But, NOW?? It is going through the roof.
Europe is scared.
Germany now realizes that it is naked, and vulnerable.
It needs more helmets, for sure.
Putin has created and empowered his enemy.
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As a Democrat, I am an ex-Republican.
I wonder how many Democrats are ex-Republicans?
I bet quite a few. The New England states were once solid Republicans.
Henry Cabot Lodge type Republicans, or Nelson Rockefeller type Republicans.
Republicans once supported Civil Rights, public education, national parks,
and conservation. Although they did not support Social Security or Medicare much when they were enacted,
but supported them fully after they were created.
The GOP was taken over by the southern Dixiecrats in the 80's and 90's, who supported JIm Crow laws, segregation, and the goals of the old Confederacy. Republicans in the north were labeled "moderate", then "RINO's", and kicked out of the party.
So, New England is now almost solid Democrat.
California, which was a battleground state, is now solid Democrat.
New Mexico, Colorado, and Arizona are becoming reliable Democrat states.
Florida will become a solid Democrat state.
The Republican Party has lost its credibility to govern or lead this country.
Republican leaders have shown that they don't care for this country, its institutions, its traditions, or its laws.
Most of all, the GOP has shown that it does not care the people of the United States.
Republican legislators have been trying to get rid of Obamacare with NO REPLACEMENT!!!
That means they are OK with us dying because we can't get health care.
Republicans prevented Medicare from negotiating lower drug prices, so we have the most expensive drugs in the world.
Expensive drugs KILL people, because many people just cannot afford them. So they die.
Republicans don't care. They don't care if you or I die.
Once the difference between a Democrat and Republican was liberal or conservative, a slight variance in philosophy of governing.
But, now the difference is humanity vs inhumanity, caring vs not caring, American vs anti-American.
And yes, I mean ANTI-American.
The Republican tolerance and acceptance of Trump's involvement with Putin,
shows that the GOP accepts treason, when it benefits them.
Anyone who votes Republican is either a fool or a traitor --
what other label could apply???
If you vote Republican, you have to decide -- fool or traitor --
the choice is yours.
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Seriously, though, the thing that is most disgusting is that the Republicans and GOP leadership supports Donald in all he says and does. There is some grousing. But, overall, no real objection, disgust, or disdain for whatever Trump does. Republicans, from the local dogcatcher, up to governors and senators, support Donald. Any who do object, are quickly shunned, isolated, and ejected to the periphery of the party.
It is frightening how easily and quickly an entire political party has been subverted, manipulated, and controlled by domestic and foreign enemies.
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Republicans think this is victory -- it is not.
With this vote, Republicans have decided to keep Trump around as a threat to run again, but more so, as a threat to overthrow our government.
I think, and hope, that voters will remember this, and vote Democrat, to take away Trump's power.
The fewer Republicans in government at the federal, state, and local levels, reduces Trump's power.
Because Republican politicians blindly follow their leaders, each one in office increases Trump's power, increases Mitch McConnell's power, and increases Lindsey Graham's power.
How much power Trump will have, or not have, is in the voter's hands -- in OUR hands.
Vote Democrat at all levels of government.
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BTW, Peter, are you going to go into the world of political commentator?
That would be a switch. A little out of your wheelhouse, I think.
Your mind works like mine (a few differences, though).
I bet we come to similar conclusions.
Your observation that Trump supporters are supremely loyal --
Now, that is what I would like you to analyze ----
WHERE does loyalty to Trump come from?
And, why is it so stubborn??
As loyal as they are, I suspect, that once that loyalty cracks,
it will evaporate. (might be wishful thinking, I admit.)
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After 9/11, the US should have just done a punitive attack to tell the Taliban Afghani government not to do that again. Something serious, like carpet bomb their training facilities.
I do mean "carpet bomb" with dumb bombs that are not very accurate.
Many collateral deaths. Maybe, 100,000 or so.
We lost about 3,000 in their attack.
We should pay back in much higher numbers.
It would be crude and cruel.
But I don't see any other alternative.
What we did made no sense.
Committing our military to try to nation build,
in a country that does not want to change.
Japan and Germany were already modern countries after WW2.
Changing them was rather simple, by comparison.
We really had no long term interests in Afghanistan, so
committing our military for a generation was idiotic.
Not, just merely wrong --- IDIOTIC.
Both D's and R's were responsible for the lunacy.
Thank you Biden, for getting us out of there.
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Putin has reinvigorated NATO, united the west, are aroused Germany.
Finland & Sweden will be joining NATO.
NATO troops are now stationed in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Romania.
After Russia loses the Ukraine War, which it WILL lose, I expect NATO troops to be in Ukraine, too.
I am not religious, but in the Bible, it says, those who sow the wind, will reap the whirlwind.
Well Putin's whirlwind will blow him away.
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Let's get this straight -- China is NOT becoming a world naval power. It takes more than ships to do that.
What made England a world naval power was it global base structure, not merely its ships.
Same with America today. Sure we have a lot of great ships.
But, without Subic Bay, Diego Garcia, Okinawa, Diego Garcia, Naples, ROK, and so many others scattered around the world, the US Navy would have a hard time projecting power.
To have bases around the world requires one very essential asset, which China does not have ----
FRIENDS.
We are welcome in places like UK, Italy, Japan, Philippines, Singapore, and so many others because we have friends. The US does its best to keep its friends. We treat them with respect. We help them after a hurricane or some other disaster.
Xi, though, has been following a different path -- making as many enemies as he can.
How many friends does China have?? I bet you won't need more than one hand to count them all.
No friends -- no global naval power.
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My Prediction - Warren will win nomination, Biden will lose it.
Here is Why --- Warren is excellent at defining problems, defining solutions, and giving a clear vision of where she wants America to go.
IMO - Hilary lost because she had no vision, nor any idea of how or what she was going to to as president. I have asked people who voted for Hilary to give me Hilary's position on several things, and they never could. That was a problem.
When you listen to Sen. Warren for 5 minutes, you know what she stands for and what she will fight for.
Back to Biden - Biden is always vague about what he is for or against. He always couches his positions in words that give him wiggle room. AND, he does wiggle.
For instance, is he for or against Health Care for All??? Depends on how you read what he says. His position seems to shift a bit one way or another depending on when and who is asking.
Warren?? Her answer is same no matter where, no matter who.
Because of this, I expect Warren to keep rising in the polls. Biden will lose most of the early primaries, but win enough to stay in the race. The Big question is, "How good will Bernie do?, and will he split the Progressive vote??"
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If Trump had lost in 2016, Trump's effect on the GOP would have been shallow and temporary.
Now, though, is a very different story. The Republican party is now associated with Trump - his tweets, actions, and prejudices.
The GOP is now associated with racism, misogyny, and corporate greed.
Granted, the corporate greed was already there, but not as blatant. The GOP was always able to spin and color things so they didn't appear to be so greedy and self serving. In effect, Trump has outed the Republican Party for being the greedy bastards they really are.
I think the anti-Trump reaction will also be an anti-Republican reaction that will last for years.
Many of the people, especially suburban women will become reliable Democrats.
College educated males will likely stay Democrat -- at least a lot of them will, IMO.
The growing minority groups will mostly be Democrat.
In 1932, the Democrats started a hold on government that lasted for 20 years.
But, even Republican president, Eisenhower, acted like a Progressive in many ways.
Nixon started the EPA, so even he was at least partly Progressive.
Not until Reagan, did Progressivism begin its decline as the favorite political philosophy in America.
This re-awakened Progressivism will mean the Republicans will be out of power for another 20 year period.
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I disagree with him that UK's influence has gone down.
First the EU has almost NO influence.
The EU is NOT a nation. It has no foreign policy.
It has no military.
It does have money.
So, you have to ask yourself -- Has France's influence gone up?
Has Germany's influence gone up?
I think not.
Influence is only partly done by economic strength.
It is also done by diplomacy, by commitment, by steadfastness, and by decisiveness.
The EU, by its structure ---
lacks commitment to anything, not very reliable, is not decisive, and CANNOT be steadfast since it cannot enter into a military alliance.
For instance, how is the EU handling the Greco-Turkey problem?
It is not handling it.
Is the EU involved in ANY way in enforcing UN laws of the sea in the South China Sea???
It is not.
The UK is involved, and is deepening its relationship with the US.
BTW.. the EU is not NATO, of which, UK is still a member.
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People must learn that NDA, non-disclosure agreements, are hard to enforce, IMO.
(Note: not a lawyer. This is my understanding of the law. If a lawyer knows differently, please comment.)
1. NDA is not enforceable when silence protects a crime or criminal conspiracy. So, if someone is doing something illegal, then you are actually committing a crime by not speaking and covering it up. You become a part of the conspiracy.
2. Also, to be enforceable, damages have to be shown. If telling people that you don't like broccoli cannot be shown to cause you financial damages, then it is not enforceable, at least to the extent of getting money.
3. In business, an NDA is narrowly applied to the information about a business, to protect its processes and intellectual property.
When it comes to people, I am not sure how that works. Generally speaking, as I understand the law, it does not like unbounded terms.
Like Non-competes are for one or two years, not for the rest of your life. So, if the NDA is written too broadly, I believe that may make it unenforceable.
In business, I have seen NDA's and Non-Competes used to intimidate. I always doubted that they actually get litigated often.
{On that point, I would really like to learn how common such litigation is. With Trump, he litigates a lot.}
if I was his doctor, I would NOT sign any NDA for him. I would tell him, I would rather he die first.
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The answer is NO. It is not the end of the American Empire.
What is more, China will NOT be dominant power in the 21st Century.
First, understand that the current global system is NOT American, per se.
It is a result of a global unified code of laws, trade regulations, and global banking system.
When UK trades with Brazil, they use this system, even though the US is not party to the transaction, and does not benefit directly from it.
The US is only part of the system. True the largest single economy within it.
BUT, even without the US, this system could continue.
China has decided now to try and destroy this system. It will fail, It will be diminished by their own hubris and pride.
Russia's power and influence will continue to decline, until they decide to stop mucking about, and join the global system.
The global system is robust, and resilient.
Power can shift from one country to another, yet the global system will endure.
The US relative position will decline as other nations rise. But, that rise will mostly be in the third world countries.
Vietnam, Thailand, Kenya, Brazil, Nigeria, and many other "small" countries will grow under the global peace often called the Pax Americana.
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You put it well. It is pretty much what I have said.
My analysis tells me that Xi is an idiot, and the CCP is a gang of idiots.
Each aggressive act against a country may be able to be explained when looked at in isolation.
What is monumentally stupid is China's aggression against ALL of its neighbors.
China has even claimed parts of Siberia, including Vladivostok, as their territory.
China has territorial claims against Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and Russia.
I am sure I missed a few.
That is nuts.
China not only has no allies.
It now has no friends.
Meanwhile, its aging population and declining export markets will lead China to disaster.
Only, this time people around the world will cheer as each new misery comes to China.
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Similarly, I have talked to "Muslims" recently. After declaring themselves Muslim, I then ask them about their beliefs. What I found was astounding. Many used "Muslim" as an ethnic identification, not a religious one. Kind of like how many "Jews" are Atheists, Agnostics, or even Buddhist. Quite a few did not believe in Allah/God. Many did not believe the Quran to taken literally, or even was the word of God. Most did not accept the Islamic position on interest and loans. Most did not follow its teachings on liquor consumption. In fact, most "Muslims" were not Muslim in the theocratic or doctrinal sense.
In Muslim countries, Islam uses coercion and capital punishment to enforce its dominance. Without the ability to coerce and punish, Islam will decline among adherents in western countries. In fact, there are huge numbers converting to Christianity. I suspect even larger numbers just stop practicing, just as many "Christians" don't practice their faiths.
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Democrats keep saying, "This isn't us."
But, it must be us. We keep electing Republicans who prevent any form of gun control.
The people in the Red states of Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio, Arizona and the rest must want this carnage because they keep voting for Republicans who enable and allow this carnage.
The alcoholic cannot say he is not an alcoholic until he stops drinking.
The addict cannot say they are not an addict until they stop taking drugs.
We cannot say "This isn't us", until we stop voting for Republicans, and
do what is necessary to control and regulate guns in America.
If you vote Republican, you vote for killing Americans.
If you vote Republican, you say you approve of mass killings of women, children, and the innocent.
If you vote Republican, you say you hate America.
Will you vote Republican????
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Disagree.
First, under Xi, China has ceased being benign.
It not only is challenging the west, it is denying the authority of the UN
and the global trading system.
China is picking threatening and bullying everyone.
NO country is allowed to disagree, or take an alternative position
on anything China feels is important.
It is NOT a question of China surpassing the US, like it was a horse race.
IF China becomes the world's dominant superpower,
that will be bad news for everyone.
The UN will not longer have authority.
The UN may as well disband.
Rules of trade, law, contracts will no longer have any meaning.
The trading regions and blocs will collapse in on themselves.
As global trade declines, so, too, will global wealth.
I do not think that will happen.
China has peaked, IMO.
China is already in decline.
Losing the trade war with Australia, proved China's weakness and vulnerability.
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Regarding the defense of the world's democracies -- Ukraine is the point of the spear.
EVERY democratic nation has a responsibility, a SACRED duty, to support Ukraine ---
NOW, in its time of need.
They are doing the fighting -- the dying -- we owe it to ourselves to support them.
Yes, I mean we owe it to ourselves to support Ukraine ---
for if we don't, if we let Ukraine fall, if we let the light of democracy to be dimmed,
and maybe fail, then we will have shamed ourselves in our own eyes, and in the eyes of history.
Do you want to live with that blame, that shame??
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@donaldmackerer9032 Putin is smart, in a way. But, his 18th century world view does not match the current reality of how nations function, how economies function, and how nations should behave to take advantage of the world order.
If Putin had taken Russia down the path that Ping put China on, then Russia would be a wealthier, happier place.
Russia could have been integrated into the world trade network, with investments everywhere, and welcome.
BUT -- Putin sees everone as a rival or enemy, just like Peter the Great.
It is good to learn from history, but it is a mistake to become its prisoner.
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BTW..living in Chicago, I never heard of Juneteenth. I read a lot, and know a lot of history. Still, I never came across that.
Unlike Trump, though, I don't think that just because I never heard of it, that it is somehow unimportant or lacking in significance.
Actually, Juneteenth made me wonder why Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation or the enacting of the Thirteenth Amendment are not give a day for celebration??
Aren't they more significant than Juneteenth?
The amendments freeing the slaves and giving women the right to vote are so important in our history, I think both deserve to have national holidays commemorating them, and celebrating them.
To our nation, I think they are as important, or more important, than Thanksgiving, Christmas, or Memorial Day.
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There is way too much oil that can be pumped out, than can ever be used.
Ask yourself --- "How do they know how may barrels of oil are in continental shelves that have not be drilled yet?"
Answer is simple -- oil deposits were laid down mostly during Global Anoxic Events in the Mesozoic.
The Earth became very hot from excess CO2, and the oceans became anoxic (without oxygen).
All life below about 25 ft in the oceans died.
Animals that died near the surface, dropped down, decayed anoxically, and oil deposits were formed.
Eventually, enough CO2 was taken out of the air, so that ocean currents started up again, and oceans became oxygenated.
This happened many times. Each time leaving more oil deposits.
That is why oil deposits are on continental shelves, or land that was under water in the Mesozoic.
That is why oil companies know there are oil deposits in the Arctic or the South China Sea or off the coast of Brazil without doing ANY drilling. Sure, they have to find it, but they know its there.
Just like they knew there was likely to be oil in the Mediterranean Sea (the old Tethys Sea), making Israel an oil state.
We are pumping, using, and burning the carbon nature sequestered to end the Global Anoxic Events of the past.
They are associated with extinction events.
NO, we will NEVER run out of oil.
We might run out of food, and livable conditions, but we will NEVER run out of oil.
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Oil never was a decreasing resource. What is more, the oil companies knew that. Well, at least by 1980 they knew that.
Ask yourself, how can the oil companies have estimates of how much oil is in the continental shelf in the South China Sea??
Or, have estimated reserves in various continental shelves around the world? - Argentina, Brazil, Israel (yep, there too), North Sea, Arctic Ice Shelves, etc.
How do they know when they have not drilled any wells, or only a few??
Simple, it is in knowing how oil deposits were formed.
AND, the formation is a very scary story.... Here it is..
1. In the Mesozoic, 250 mya to 60 mya, there were many events called ....
Global Anoxic Events.
Global Anoxic Event is when the Earth is so warm, that the ocean currents shut down, including the currents that bring oxygen to the depths. The deep ocean loses its oxygen -- hence the term Global Anoxic Event.
2. When sea creatures die, they fall to the bottom of the ocean, and rot under anoxic conditions. Over time this gives us oil deposits.
3. They are mostly on continental shelves since the shallow ocean next to land is the most productive part of the ocean.
Therefore, the oil deposits are in continental shelves, or areas that WERE under water at the time - like Texas, and Persian Gulf area.
4. GAE's occurred when Earth was very warm, and atmospheric CO2 was very high -- like 600+ppm. I don't think scientists have a firm number for that level, but it was high.
5. GAE's are associated with mass extinctions.
6. Current CO2 is 419 ppm (see https://www.co2.earth/)
CO2 is rising 2 to 3 ppm per year, and will likely accelerate in the future.
Taking the lower number of 2 ppm/year, in 80 years, 2100, CO2 will rise 160 ppm to 579 ppm in the atmosphere.
At that level, polar ice caps have never existed on Earth. SO, we could expect to lose the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps completely.
Though that loss would take several centuries. Maybe a millennia, but I doubt it would take that long, especially since, CO2 continue to rise further.
Here is the kicker, Mother Nature took the excess CO2 out of the air and sequestered deep in the land under the ocean. Very secure. Very safe. So, she thought.
NOW, man has accessed those stores of Carbon, burning it, and releasing it back into the air.
Reversing Mother Nature's efforts to build a planet nice for use.
She gave us this wonderful planet, as a gift to us.
We are now destroying it.
A Global Anoxic Event is likely in our future.
Remember, they are linked to extinction events.
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Not only is this nothing new, it is the very concept of armored forces.
Go back to Plan 1919. That shows how armor was to be used.
In an armor concentration, a hole is punched in the enemy line, the armor penetrates, targeting command/control/communication, then spreading out causing confusion.
This was used by the Allies in the breakout from Normandy that created the Falaise pocket where thousands of Germans were captured.
The Thunder Run is far from new.
FYI, Plan 1919 was British, but Britain declined to use it, since it required dedicated armor units. Guderian read it, though. So, Germany adopted it, created their Panzer Corps.
The Blitzkrieg, or "lightening war", was what resulted.
Now, specific tactics have to be adapted with the technology and equipment used. Combining infantry and armor was soon done. Today, modern armies have to incorporate close air support, satellite recon, mobile logistics, drones, and so much more. It can get complicated.
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Interesting. So, for a circular runway to be useful it needs a totally flat unobstructed area, distant from other airports.
Well, we have places like that in the US. Minneapolis, Lincoln Nebraska, Pierre South Dakota, and other American cities on the American high plains in the west. I am sure Australia, and other countries around the world have cities that meet those criteria.
Another objection, though, I think is "pilot training". Seems to me that landing on a circular runway would be a bit different, and require training and familiarity. So, wouldn't there be an increased chance of fatal accidents with such runways?
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Understand American politics and parties.
1. The American party system is drastically different from Europe. There are actually 100+ parties in the US.
The Republican party of Illinois has little to do with the Republican party of Indiana. The same is true for all the Republican and Democratic parties in the country. So, that is 100 parties. But, it breaks down even further.
In Illinois, where I live, the Democratic party of Mike Madigan, a downstate state senator and the power in Springfield, has little to do with Democratic Party in Chicago, headed by Lori Lightfoot, Mayor of Chicago.
Similar divisions occur in many states.
2. Third parties are common in American history. That is how ideas start and develop. If they are not popular, they die out. If they become popular, they get co-opted by one of the main parties.
For instance, the New Deal of FDR in 1932 bears a huge resemblance to the Socialist Party platform of 1924. Also, the Progressive Policies of FDR, come partly from the progressive Bull Moose Party of Teddy Roosevelt.
So, a third party is not to be feared. IMO, it is to be welcomed. It shows the American system is reacting to, and absorbing the impact of Trump.
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@peterrumspringa9757 It depends on the type of democracy you have.
If for instance, you have parliamentary democracy, like the UK, then the ruling party can dictate. There is little to control it
In a Constitutional democracy like the United States, it is much different.
The Constitution guarantees rights to everyone, and party getting into power that wants to deny those rights, it is more difficult.
That is why the US, right now, is having a Constitutional crisis. The Supreme Court has indicated that it won't be protecting rights that many had come to take for granted.
BTW, that will result, I expect, in some major changes in coming elections.
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He basically said he was against any Progressive candidate. He was a "centrist", which really means a corporatist pro-Republican Democrat. Like Biden, he would be happier with a Republican president than a Progressive candidate.
When the Democratic party moved away from the FDR New Deal/Great Society politics, they basically became a corporatist party in kind with Republicans.
That is why corporatist democrats feel more akin with R's than their Progressive brethren.
Now, Progressive policies are supported by 70% of voters -- Healthcare, Education, Student Loans, Environment, Taxes, Banking, Consumer Protection and everything else. Progressives are the true "centrists" since they embody the desires of the majority of Americans.
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I understand your concern. But, I disagree.
People, especially the Ukrainians, need to know that help is coming.
Otherwise, they might despair, lose their morale, and fight poorly.
Also, citizens of US, UK, France, Germany, etc need to know what their governments are doing and whose side they are on.
If you do notice, they aren't giving precise locations or times for material movement.
So Russians may not have any operational information to do much about it.
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I hate it when people make assertions that are unsubstantiated and WRONG.
The coast of China was NEVER the wealthy area, until recently.
Why do you think all the capitals are inland??
Beijing, the latest, is the closest to the sea -- 90 miles away.
Chang'an was deep inland.
WHY??
Simple, trade until the Europeans, was over the Silk Road.
Wealth came overland, from the west.
When Europeans came, they reversed that.
So, Hong Kong, Macao, Shanghai, and other coastal cities
became the centers of wealth.
That has only been in the last 200 years.
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I stated "China has many problems with its military." Let me explain.
Although creating great weapons - on paper - China has no experience in using them.
China is trying to adopt US doctrine, but it has no experience.
So, it tries to hire western ex-military guys, to teach them.
(which is illegal, and will get guys that do that in big trouble).
There is only ONE country in the world today with deep experience in amphibious warfare -- the US.
Even UK, Germany, etc. experience and knowledge pale in comparison.
The US is coaching Taiwan on how to defend against and disrupt such an invasion.
I put my money on Taiwan.
Third, Taiwan makes the most advanced chips in the world. Therefore, their missile avionics, ECM, and ECCM is likely very advanced. That would mean their missiles are hard to intercept, and will hit and destroy their targets. It also means, their anti-missile missiles would be highly effective against Chinese missiles, blunting their missile barrages.
Fourthly, as Ukraine shows, people will fight like hell when they are defending home and family.
The Taiwanese will be very hard to conquer. Even if, by some miracle, China gets its forces on Taiwan -- it is mountainous, and easily defended. Walking into Taipei will not conquer Taiwan.
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OK, lets forget the politics, and focus purely on the military.
Can China even hope to prevail?
Well, to do so, it must be able to function economically WHILE being at war.
The first that will happen, IMO, is the cessation of maritime imports & exports to/from China.
Shipping companies won't risk their ships, and ship insurance will probably be too expensive or non-existent.
PLUS, US and other countries will implement a naval blockade.
India will likely stop all China trade through the Malacca Strait.
US will stop it across the Pacific.
Question: How long will China's economy and people be able to withstand a blockade??
Germany lost WW1 because of its blockade.
China, I think, is more dependent on overseas trade than WW1 Germany was.
Will China last 6 months? 12 months? longer?
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@edenli9208 just noticed your reply. I am impressed. You countered me, point by point.
I think you are very wrong in most of them, but you state your position clearly, without being insulting or abusive. I appreciate that.
You are first pro-China person I have met on-line, where I feel, despite our very profound differences, would be able to have a long conversation into the night, drinking beer or wine -- and have a very good time.
BTW - US won't fall apart. We almost did during our Civil War, but that ended that idea. The political differences in the US are not of a nature to coalesce around rebellion. The US is very complex, and different from all other countries. Americans have a hard time understanding it. To foreigners, it is a mystery. Personally, I think it is the most complex nation in the world. Full of contradictions. It was created on a contradiction -- "All Men Are Created Equal" & Slavery. Can't get more contradictory than that.
In the name of "Peace", we start wars (see Vietnam). We can be very greedy, yet also very generous -- see Marshall Plan, and opening our markets to Japan, SK, and Germany - enabling them to become wealthy. If you try to find consistency in our behavior, you will fail.
Scotland will likely leave the UK at some point. For some reason, any vote to stay in the union is open for another vote. A vote to leave is permanent. So, eventually a vote to leave will happen. I think that is sad, but inevitable.
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@edenli9208 In the American colonies at the time, "men" would have referred any homo sapiens. Europe had gone through the Enlightenment, and had moved away from classic monotheistic theology which put people into orthodox, heretic, and non-believer categories.
But, in Christianity, even non-believers were considered human. So, "men" would have included the people we call "men" today".
I don't know about Muslims, they don't seem to like anyone, even themselves.
You are cynical. You interpret everything negatively, even the Marshall Plan.
Did the Marshall Plan help the United States? Sure it did. But, it did so by helping others, who were in dire need. People were starving in Europe.
Did it have the effect of freezing Russia out of Western Europe? Yes. It was a reason we did it. But, we DID do it.
Russia could have done the same for Eastern Europe. But did not.
In fact, no nation in history was as generous as the US at that time.
The US did not act as a conquering nation, subjugating everyone. The US favored letting businesses in those countries start, and start building wealth.
You see, what differentiates the US from Russia & China, is that we don't see the world as a zero-sum game. We believe that as other countries get rich, they will buy more from us, and we both get richer.
We don't resent other countries getting rich.
The US did not resent China getting rich --- until it started using its wealth to bully others, threaten war, and claim rights and privileges not allowed by the UN.
When China started directly threatening the US and our friends, we knew we had to change policies.
Now the US is ending its trade relationship with China. Imports from China will shrink until they are are a tiny fraction of what they were. Other countries are following our lead.
China's power will fade as quickly as it rose.
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What do you mean "the downfall of the US military"???
Our military is a reflection of our country and society.
It is created and sustained by our institutions, which includes the will of its citizens.
For the military to collapse or have a downfall, that would mean a collapse of our government.
Of all the countries in the world, the US is best situated geographically and politically.
For instance, lets assume that the oceans rise 50 feet (much higher than predicted).
Florida and other coastal areas would be submerged. The people of those areas will be welcome to relocate.
Many coastal countries do not have that ability for their citizens. Bangladesh, for instance, is surrounded by India which would not welcome its refugees.
China would be hard hit, as the Yellow and Pearl river deltas are low, and would cause the dislocation of about 200,000,000 people. China is not set up culturally or legally to allow for that much internal immigration. The US, on the other hand, allows and supports internal immigration.
The US will need to abandon many bases, like Diego Garcia, which are barely above sea level. Our naval bases will likely have to be relocated. But, that is merely an inconvenience.
There will be conflicts around the world. The US does not need to get involved in any of them.
BTW -- by 2040 or 2050, our economy will have moved to renewable energy, and away from oil. We won't need to care what happens in the Middle East or other areas, to ensure our energy supply. Oil resources has been a main driver of wars for 100 years now. That is coming to an end.
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I hate it when people talk about invading Taiwan as if Taiwan is just going to sit there.
The real issue for China, to successfully invade, is how to get its troops & equipment over, and on land.
As soon as war happens, Taiwan will unleash hundreds, if not thousands, of missiles to sink ships while in port.
Their missiles could rain down upon Shanghai.
ANY troop ships would have to travel 100+ miles over the strait -- all the time under threat of missiles.
The HF 2 & HF3 missiles have been constantly manufactured for the past 15 to 20 years.
'Taiwan has LOTS of them. I doubt if many troop ships would make it across.
Those nice carriers China has, would be among the first ships sunk.
ALSO....Taiwan is technologically sophisticated, and China's missiles would be diverted with ECM.
Taiwan would be very tough nut to crack.
BTW...do you think Japan, US, and others would sit idly by?? Really??? Do you???
Get real.
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The US and the world should come to Taiwan's defense if China is so stupid as to attempt an invasion of the island.
IF China gets Taiwan, then China will almost certainly get the de facto sovereignty over the South China Sea, that it asserts.
IF China controls the SCS as SOVEREIGN territory (not as EEZ, which other nations claim)
that will give China control over the maritime trade of Japan, ROK, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other countries of the region.
IF THAT happens, then those nations will be reduced to being vassal states to China.
After that, China will continue its assault on the current world order of free and unencumbered world trade.
IF the rest of the world values their economies, and the wealth of their citizens, they better understand this, and oppose China.
This is NOT a small issue. This issue is NOT merely a local regional issue..
This is a world issue.
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LOL. I have dated drop dead gorgeous women. Some are great.
BUT --- most are not.
In fact, most don't get past the first sentence or two before I realize they are either
a) dumb as rocks, or
b) nasty, selfish, and heartless -- which is even worse.
Actually, if they are sweet, giving, and tender, I don't really care about the brains.
Also, I have dated very ordinary girls. To be honest, after the first 5 or 10 minutes,
I don't give a damn for the looks.
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Taxes and tax protests is the normal narrative for the Revolutionary War.
There is another --- involving slavery.
In 1763, a slave named Somerset went to England with his master, and ran away.
The master sued in English court to get him back.
He lost.
Now, the colonies were under English Common Law, like England.
So, the precedent of the freeing of Somerset could mean the freeing of all slaves in the Empire.
The book Slave Nation describes this.
Now, some of the American colonies wanted slavery to continue.
The plantation colonies wanted slavery because it was the foundation of their economy.
Boston wanted it because they were the Yankee traders in the triangle slave trade.
So, one reason for the war, may have been to retain slavery.
Isn't that a twist????
Ever notice how little New York appears in the narrative of the Revolutionary War???
Even as a kid, I thought that odd.
Read the book, it is interesting.
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The Japan--US alliance needs to be expanded.
An Indo-Pacific Alliance (IPA) needs to be created.
This could be done by expanding and combining the Japan-US alliance, with the Quad, the Philippines-US relationship, and the Australia-US alliance.
Additionally, other Indo-Pacific nations should be welcomed into the IPA.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam are obvious candidates for membership.
Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are not so obvious, IMO. But, they could benefit, as well as add to the alliance.
The BIG question is Taiwan --
Should Taiwan be recognized by the IPA?
Should Taiwan be welcomed into the alliance?
IMO, I think both would be good moves.
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Sea level rise has not really begun to happen in earnest.
So far, people have been affected marginally with storm surge increase, and some tidal increase.
However, as it accelerates, land will start to be lost to the sea,
AND this process will accelerate.
Eventually, cities like Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, Galveston, and Charleston will be lost to the sea.
The only question is, When??
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Current CO2 levels have already exceeded the CO2 levels of the Pliocene, 2.5mya, when seas were 25 meters deeper.
So, sea level rise will continue to at least that level.
Moreover, according to CO2.earth, CO2 was at 415.72 ppm 4/6/20, an increase over 411.33 ppm on 4/6/19. An increase of 4.39 ppm in just one year!!! That's incredible.
Can anyone really think we won't see 500 ppm by 2050, and 600 ppm by 2100???
Those levels of CO2 have not existed since the Cretaceous, when NO ICE existed on Earth.
Can anyone doubt that oceans won't continue to rise over the next few centuries??
And, that the rise will keep accelerating??
These massive dams would be obsolete and overwhelmed by further sea rise within 50 years, 100 years viability is probably too optimistic, IMO. But, even then, is it practical for Europe to rebuild them? or, to eventually abandon coastal Europe in the long run anyway??
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Putin is destroying Russia's ability to hold onto Siberia.
In the long run, Russia's biggest threat comes from China.
Russia took Siberia from China. Lake Baikal, and much of Siberia belonged to China.
Vladivostok is build on land taken from China.
NOW -- consider this -- China claims to be an Arctic power.
How can it say that if it does not have Arctic land??
Could it be that China intends on getting Arctic land??
From where??
Taking Siberia, obviously.
Until now, Russia was too strong for that to even be a possibility.
Russia has shown that it has an incompetent army, with poorly maintained equipment, with crews with no training. Russia has shown that its military doctrine is crap.
Russia has shown that its military organization, structure, and leadership is a farce.
Will China remain intimidated???
I doubt that.
What would the world do if China attacked, conquered, and made Siberia part of China???
Who would oppose?? Who would stop China??
What could NATO or US do?
They may not like it, but what could anyone do??
It is only a matter of time.
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Let's make one thing clear --- Russia is NOT an enormous country. It is less than 1/2 of the US.
It is LARGE, but not enormous.
That means, it does not have limitless supplies and manpower.
Ukraine has 1/3 of its population.
BUT - Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines of communication,
endless supplies from the west, more modern weapons and equipment,
the best satellite surveillance (courtesy of US), and lastly
the most highly motivated citizenry.
I wish the media would STOP building up Russia as a 20 foot giant.
It is NOT. Russia's military is deeply flawed.
It has size, and resources --- but that is all.
It is poorly trained, unmotivated, and badly led.
Russia CANNOT win.
The ONLY real question is how long it will take Ukraine to win.
This year?? Maybe.
Next year?? More likely.
The year after?? Almost for sure.
BUT -- no matter how long it will take, Ukraine will do it.
Since this is an existential war for Ukraine -- they have no choice but to fight.
Remember, our War of Independence took 6 years
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You could add to your list of countries that should have been rich.
Or, at least a lot richer than they are now.
1. Argentina. In the 1930's Argentina was a wealthy as most European nations.
Then came Peronism, corruption, and mismanagement.
2. Philippines. As an ex-colony of the US, Philippines had access to the American market, and American capital.
No reason for it not to be as wealthy as ROK, Japan, or Taiwan.
3. Mexico. Resources, people, access to US market, have not done as much as it should for Mexico.
4. Turkey -- it will be on this list in a few years, after Erdogan impoverishes the place. Not yet, but soon.
5. Venzuela -- Has oil wealth, and well educated people. It was much wealthier 20, 30, or 40 years ago.
Now?? It is a wreck.
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@shubhamd3698 Also, very early on, India stated its affection for the Soviet Union, despite its hatred of democracies.
Even now, India is OK with Russia killing civilians and trying to destroy Ukraine -- another democracy.
So, please don't rag on about India is a democracy, and we should protect them.
India is out for itself, democracy be damned.
Personally, I know a lot of Indians. Smart and funny people. But, the Indian government is not like them.
Indians come to the US, they don't go the beloved Russia to improve their lives. They come here.
At the moment, I oppose the US doing much to support India, since India shows no affection or respect to the US.
I doubt India would ever do anything to help the US. Any relationship will be one way.
Kind of like my first wife.
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For once, I have to disagree with your logic.
1. We know now that there was no invasion threat to the US. BUT, back then, right after Pearl, there was hysteria, and many expected an invasion.
2. Japan was very capable of invading Hawaii in very early stage, IMO. I have wondered why Japan did not do that, in fact. I believe the reason is that Pearl was a Navy assignment, while the Army took the Philippines. IF Japan had ignored the Philippines at first, and combined their efforts at occupying Hawaii, I don't see why it would not have succeeded, and put the US Navy all the way back to San Diego.
3. You must know that the US was stunned by Pearl, not just because it was a surprise,
BUT, because it was done by an "inferior" nation, an inferior military, and an "inferior" people.
This cognitive dissonance created not only panic, but then a reverse idea that the Japanese were now super men, who could anything --- even invade the US.
I think you have made the common mistake, in this case, of interpreting history from what we now know, and not from what people knew, felt, and believed at the time.
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In America, unwelcome touching is considered assault.
If someone touches you, you have the RIGHT to punch them, and even harm them.
You can call cops and have them arrested, go to trial, and go to jail.
Plus, if they do that to someone who is carrying a gun, they are taking their life in hand.
They could be killed, and the killer just has to say he felt threatened.
And, in the US, that will pass in a trial.
So, I have not seen that here.
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For Catholics, all the British Kings since Henry VIII were pretenders.
A King is NOT a King unless properly crowned by the Pope.
That coronation MUST be done with a blessing from the Pope,
or his representative, a local Bishop.
How else can he get the blessing of God, who only speaks through the Catholic clergy?
A blessing given by someone from the Church of England does not count, since that whole church is invalid.
King Charles should convert to Catholicism, and submit to the Pope.
He must say 1,000,000 rosaries and 1,000,000,000 Our Father's in penance for denying the one True Catholic Church.
To do it really right, he should dress in rags, and crawl on his hands and knees to Vatican City to plea forgiveness from the Pope.
Ah, the Middle Ages, the world has gone downhill ever since.
No more excommunications, witch burnings, or religious slaughter.
Europe is just not fun anymore.
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I think the Ark needs to be BIG - like 1 mile in diameter, and 5 to 10 miles long cylinder.
It could then be rotated, creating an artificial internal gravity. The cylinder should have about 50 decks, totaling about 500 feet thick. Water storage could be in "lakes" or "oceans" up to 500 feet deep. Therefore, whales and squid could be taken along. Several ecosystems would be created, sustaining the animals, plants, fungi, and bacteria necessary for them.
The number of people taken would be 10,000+.
Also, several should be built, in case something happens to one. Plus, they could support each other along the way, just as a fleet of ships support each other.
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For its defense, Taiwan MUST be able to inflict serious damage to China, if China attacks.
That means, it must have the means to sink ships and down planes.
That means, Taiwan MUST have an offensive capability.
No offense = No defense.
Now, it is sensible for Taiwan to have a policy of not starting a war.
But, if war occurs, Taiwan must feel free to defend itself in any way necessary.
Taiwan MUST have torpedoes, anti-ship missiles, sea mines, anti-air missiles,
long-range artillery, satellite reconnaissance, advanced radars, AEW, and ECM.
Considering Taiwan's expertise in electronics, I hope they are focusing on electronics that can interfere with the command/communication/control (C3) operations of the Chinese military.
I hope Taiwan has hardened or shielded its telecommunications infrastructure from EMP's.
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A few fringe Republicans may back impeachment, but the vast majority will not. Any Republicans associated with Bush, or a northern state, are fringe Republicans today. Romney is fringe, for instance. The GOP is now Trump's party.
I expect the GOP to follow Trump all the way down, like lemmings jumping off the cliff.
I do agree that this will have impact for a generation. The Republican Party is destroying itself.
I know, with the Senate, and the majority of governorships, this may not seem so. But, the GOP is losing the next generation. Young people are breaking Democrat 3 to 2. That is huge. Women are breaking Democrat - 2 to 1.
The Republican Party will retain strength, I believe, in certain strongholds - mostly in the deep south confederate states - Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas.
Soon, the GOP will lose all three parts - presidency, House, and Senate -- BUT....
unlike last time, with Obama, this time they will know what to do with it.
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Not very surprising. However, will Italian rejection of the EU stay that high??
If it does, then I don't see how future governments will be able to stay in the EU.
Polls go up, and polls go down. Is Italy entering into a new normal, regarding EU membership???
Personally, I think so.
Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy have suffered by the bank dominated EU leadership.
The austerity programs imposed have created pain & suffering on a massive scale.
The Covid-19 epidemic is just exposing the inadequacies of the EU structure and leadership.
I think the pain will not go away soon, or be forgotten by voters across Europe, not just in Italy.
The EU bureaucracy will not change. I doubt it can change. So, EU will likely fall apart.
Will Italy stay? Will Spain stay? Will Portugal stay? Will Greece stay??
I think all will leave.
After that, further inequalities will create strains with Ireland, Finland, Poland, and the rest.
Will any of the countries continue in a German led and dominated EU??
Maybe not.
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Your point about the Mississippi is correct, but inadequate.
You should include all the navigable tributaries -- the Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and Wisconsin rivers. And then, there are other smaller navigable rivers that contribute to the wealth of the US --- Tombigbee, Hudson, Potomac, Delaware, Colorado, Columbia, and Sacramento rivers.
The United States is truly blessed.
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Ok, so trade through the Indian Ocean is critical to China. Right??
So, tell me, why has China insulted, bullied, and pissed off all the countries around it???
Normally, exporting countries like to keep their neighbors happy, so they keep buying.
But, China??? They love pissing everyone off. They have made claims and threats to ---
Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Russia, India, and Malaysia.
They threaten war against anyone who supports Taiwan.
They threaten violence against any country that does a Freedom Of Navigation patrol in the SCS.
Did you note how people around the world were pleased about China's flooding and possible dam failures last year??
No one like China. No one will help it, when times get tough.
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Regarding the "Savannah Theory". The tall grass prairie of the American mid-west was very difficult to walk in, the grass being very dense in many areas.
Meanwhile, a mature forest is very walkable. In a mature forest, even a tropical forest, the canopy shade keeps the forest floor devoid of leafy plants. It is very easy to walk in.
The virgin forests of America and Europe are all gone, so people cannot experience how walkable they are. Walking would have been a great asset for early hominids for getting around the forest floor.
Chimps and gorillas use the forest floor to go short distances to new trees. But, hominids could cover great distances of many miles in a single day. To me, that seems a great advantage.
So, besides the "Aquatic Theory", I think a "Forest Theory" should also not be easily dismissed.
Modern cultures are very anti-forest. We cut down forests, even when we don't need to. It is as if we have some unconscious war with forests.
Yet, pre-Columbian Indians prospered living in forests. Pygmies and South American Indians rely on forests.
To me, the idea the early hominids also relied on forests is very possible, even likely.
Could hominids have been BOTH aquatic and forest??
Possible, their are some animals that are both - pygmy hippos are one. Tapirs are another.
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@livinthefilm That is a ridiculous thing to say. You know little about military strategy obviously.
The Union Army of General Sherman had more men and material than Confederate General Johnston.
(BTW - this is still taught at West Point)
Starting in Tennessee, Sherman started his advance to Atlanta. Johnston would choose excellent defensive positions, where Sherman would out-maneuver, and force Johnston to retreat. He did this time and time again. With a great efficiency of force, he got his army to Atlanta without a major battle.
Johnston, who was considered an excellent General until then, was relieved of command.
To do frontal assaults just because you have superiority in men and material, wastes lives, money, and increases the chance of defeat.
In the very least, it will delay the date of victory.
You really do need to read a bit more.
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@livinthefilm Nope. Manstein's plan comes from Germany's war doctrine which emphasized movement and initiative.
Russian doctrine does the opposite.
Russian (Soviet) army structure does not allow initiative, and therefore movement.
Movement does NOT mean getting in your tanks and driving in a certain direction.
Movement means quick decisive response to situations on the battlefield as they arise. Not merely saying, "Ok guys, let's drive through the Argonne Forest.".
Besides, the Schlieffen Plan would likely to have succeeded as well to start WW2.
The victory came as much from Germany's concentrated Panzer army formations, AND their unique (at the time) usage of radios in their tanks. The radios in tanks enabled greater mobility, coordination, and initiative.
So, the Schlieffen Plan would have worked, too, IMO.
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I agree with you. Battles and great men are important, yet, in the long run, social, technological, and philosophical forces are more important. BTW, I think the term "economic" is too narrow, and even misleading. For instance, the US Republic expanded rights to more groups, while the Roman Republic devolved towards Empire. Why?? I believe it has to do with the high level of literacy and communication that comes from the printing press. Literacy is not the issue, I think. I suspect most citizens of Rome could read. I think the printing press is the key differentiator between "modern" and "ancient" societies and peoples. I believe that without it, the modern nation-state would not have developed.
The printing press in Europe started a whole number of trends - The Age of Discovery, The Reformation, The Enlightenment, and The Nation-State. I don't fully understand how, but it seems that the printing press may have also been key to the rise of Nationalism, which really became powerful in the 1800's.
BTW.. "Nationalism" is a complex, interesting, and hugely important force. I think a series addressing it would be great. However, it might be beyond the capabilities of your format. Also, it is a murky, hard to define, hard to understand topic.
So, maybe your team is not up to it. (subtle challenge here).
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When we select and elect our representatives - Senators & Congressmen - we presume that they will represent us.
The people in Michigan presume that the Senators and Congressmen from Michigan will represent them.
Same in Georgia, or Texas, or Oregon, or New Jersey. Their views and needs will be different, and that is what Congress is all about.
Each representing their own state or district.
Republicans, however, don't act like that.
Republican Senators do whatever they are told by McConnell or Trump. They only have conflict if McConnell and Trump don't tell them the same thing.
Republican Senators do NOT represent their states, or our country. They do what they are told. They are soldiers for the GOP.
The GOP, in turn, is controlled by international corporate interests in Europe and Russia, or someplace else.
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Democrats need someone with new ideas.
Once we had them, like FDR.
After FDR, the Democrats had FDR disciples that maintained
and even expanded on the New Deal.
Truman, Kennedy, and LBJ were like that.
After that, the Democratic Party lost its way.
Carter meant well, but he could not articulate either policy or vision.
Bill Clinton put an end to New Deal policies and ideas.
The decline of the middle class accelerated with both parties
destroying it.
Now, young people. New faces, who only know FDR from history books,
is resurrecting Progressivism.
WHY???
Simple, FDR and the Progressives got their start by the Gilded Age (1890's) and Roaring Twenties, when tycoons dominated industry. Through monopolies and predatory banking they sought to
diminish and impoverish American citizens.
Progressivism and the New Deal was the response.
NOW, we are in a similar situation.
Amazon, Google, Tesla, Walmart, and other modern giants dominate our economy,
and our politicians. They want to destroy unions, though they have little impact on their businesses.
They want to end consumer protection laws. They want to reverse gains in civil rights.
They want to impoverish us, and then set us upon each other with hate, resentment, and false envy.
When we are scrambling for crumbs, each will the kill anyone taking our crumbs.
We need someone like AOC. She articulates the problems and the cures so well.
Biden, and those of his generation, no longer have stomach for a fight.
Most have no idea that a fight is needed.
Pelosi is either ignorant, or a sell-out.
She no longer knows or cares the problems of people.
The Democratic Party, though, is dominated and controlled by corporatists.
The same corporatists that control the Republican Party.
Can Progressives and true Democrats take control??
Doubtful. But, it is possible.
People must get angry enough, to force it.
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Comparing the Russo-Ukraine war to the Korean War is so off base, I have to call it ridiculous.
First, the Korean War was just about stopping a conquest of South Korea, which we did.
It was a US victory, since we accomplished our war aim.
Second, Russia was at the height of its power. There was no idea or appetite for war with Russia.
Third, Russia attacked Ukraine. Russia was not a participant in the Korean War -- officially.
Lastly, South Korea was NOT involved in the Korean War, in the sense that it did not have a fighting army.
In this war, Ukraine is the ONLY combatant taking on Russia --- and winning.
ALSO, North Korea had limitless resources from both Russia and China. Same with South Korea, from us. SO --- a stalemate was inevitable.
In Ukraine, Russia is using up its supplies, while Ukraine has limitless supplies.
Russia will lose because it won't have the means for war in another year.
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@leogama3422 Yes. I think Ukraine will do great during the winter in this war.
First, Russia seems to have trouble supplying troops with basic gear, like socks. I bet they won't give out adequate coats, blankets, and boots for the winter. Will Russian troops even have fuel for a stove in their tents??
Meanwhile, I bet Ukraine will have all the winter gear and clothes they want. Good tents, insulated shelters, down coats, down blankets, and stoves for their tents.
I suspect the Ukraine army will function, and be able to attack. Russian troops will be trying to cope with the cold.
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About military doctrine -- Doctrine does effect weapon design, and military organization. For instance, the British/French doctrine of putting tanks in infantry units led them to build tanks that were slow, and lacked radios, since coordination with other tanks was not foreseen.
So, what can be deduced about China's military naval doctrine from the design of the ships and aircraft designs, and how they are organized?
First, like the UK carrier, the Chinese carrier are NOT blue water carriers, but primarily designed to support amphibious landings. That is why the UK carrier will have F-35B's with VSTOL, while the US carriers get F-35A's with CATOBAR. With that in mind, it is unlikely that current Chinese and British carriers would ever battle each other.
However, China says CATOBAR carriers in the Nimitz class are in its future. If so, that would be a real game changer. The US is the only country with blue water carriers and bases able to initiate and sustain conflict over the whole world. If China invests in 4 to 6 such carriers, that would be a game changer in the region.
{Not globally, because they still would not have the base structure necessary to support them.}
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The United States has many threads, social, economic, political, philosophical, ethnic, racial, class, etc. that all had their influence and interactions in every presidential term.
Therefore, every president presided over important events and developments during their tenure.
Our history is rich. This creates a big problem when teaching it in our public schools.
At best, only the high points can be taught, or even mentioned.
Anything added, like black studies, requires something else being left out or degraded, like War of 1812, War of the Barbary Pirates, or Reconstruction, for example.
Even though Tyler's presidency might be considered one of the least eventful, still, important events happened.
Thanks for the video.
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FYI...the era of "objective journalism" is over.
Once, media were all known to be Democrat or Republican. They would slant stories, exaggerate stories, or quash stories to benefit the party they promote.
If you go back to the founding of the Republic in the 1790's and early 1800's newspapers would openly slander politicians.
Washington was accused of wanting to be king, for example.
Suggest to read "The Aurora". The writings of one of the early papers of the nation. Several presidents had worked on it, including John Quincy Adams, and I think Monroe and/or Madison.
The idea of "objective Journalism" was unknown at that time. Exactly how the idea that journalists were "objective", and were expected to be "objective" came about, I have no idea. Not sure when it was supposed to have happened.
When I was a child in the 50's, the Chicago Tribune was Republican, and the Sun-Times was Democrat. They endorsed their party candidates almost always.
Now, Fox is the propaganda arm of the Republicans.
And, so the Democrats expect MSNBC to act as their propaganda arm.
Sounds reasonable to me.
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Why will the new world order look like the post WW2 world order???
Simple, almost all countries benefitted from it.
China's attacks on the current order -- especially by its rapacious fishing fleets that flout the NCLOS designation of the EEZ's of countries around the world -- have frightened and angered many nations.
The idea that China might be allowed to go even further is too scary.
Countries will oppose China, especially if the US leads in the opposition.
Many countries have problems with the US, and oppose its policies in specific areas.
However, China's attack on the world order is so profound, and so threatening to world peace and trade, that those issues will be put aside.
I have noticed the idea of an Indo-Pacific Alliance grow in recent years. Two or three years ago, the idea was not even mentioned. I am not sure, but I may have been the first to propose it on YouTube. (I know I had not seen it.)
But, now, the idea is talked about. China has even made threats concerning it, which means they are scared of the idea.
As China continues its threats in the SCS, the felt need for an IPA will grow.
Unless China changes its attitude (unlikely), I see the creation of an Indo-Pacific Alliance as being inevitable. By 2025, if not sooner.
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China will not have it easy.
1. India's navy now has porting rights at Cam Rahn Bay.
2. India is selling Brahmos & Akash missiles to Vietnam.
3. India is training Vietnam's navy on using its Russian made subs. India is selling naval ships to V.
4. Vietnam, India, US, Japan, and Australia hold joint naval exercises regularly.
5. Xi's military bullying is causing regional countries to lower their trading relationship with China. China's export economy will be hurt by this, especially long term, IMO.
China will find that bullying and threatening is not a way to establish healthy relationships in the region.
Xi seems to be operating as if China is the Middle Kingdom, and all countries are supposed to allow hegemony and dominion to China. Well, all those countries are proud too, and there will be push back.
Japan, India, and Vietnam are already increasing their military budgets. So, China's new military assets will bring the advantage it seeks. Remember, it takes a lot more money and assets to project power, especially over the sea.
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Nationalize or Regulate???
That is the eternal argument between Socialists and Progressives.
Socialists will tend to want to nationalize, while Progressives will tend to regulate
For instance, how do we control the natural monopolies of electric and gas suppliers in our cities and town???
In the US, we tend to regulate.
ComEd in IL is our local gas delivery utility. It is a private company, but it must go to the utility board to set prices. It is regulated.
Some towns and counties own their electric companies -- those are examples of nationalization.
I don't think it is clear that one is clearly better than the other when dealing with enterprises that a natural monopolies.
BTW - public schools, fire departments, police departments, and roads are run by government in most places.
So, should we regulate or nationalize -- YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, Comcast, Google, etc??
Or, do we leave them alone, and let them do whatever they want??
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Kyle, you abuse the term "Populist", IMO.
Populist is NOT the same as Progressive.
Populist comes from the word "popular". A Populist does NOT have a philosophy of government - he just talks about popular things...then does what they want. Hitler was a "populist", for instance.
A Progressive has a philosophy of government that has defined programs for helping people, the economy, and the nation.
A Progressive will be for social programs...when they can be paid for.
A Progressive will be for the military...when it is necessary.
A Progressive will be for a balance fiscal policy, that pays its debts, and keeps the national debt reasonably low. (For instance, Progressives raised taxes after WW2 to pay off the war. We will need to do that again to pay off Trump's tax cuts. Those taxes should fall mostly on the rich and super-rich, IMO.)
Please, stop using "Populist" for "Progressive".
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Bad news. It is not just Ted Cruz that is against the Green New Deal, and against all human progress. The entire Republican party is against any kind of progress.
Republicans want no progress in race relations,
no progress in cancelling student loan debt,
no progress on health care,
no progress on voting rights,
no progress on having civics classes in schools,
no progress on police killings of citizens,
no progress on banking regulations,
no progress on consumer protection,
no progress on minimum wages,
no progress on national certification of police....
OK, I am tired.
Someone else can continue the list.....
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CGTN is a voice of the CCP.
However, on this, I have to agree. Cooperation between two states, one pariah, and the other fast becoming a pariah, makes sense, should be expected, and is not a real danger to others.
It does raise some questions, though...
1. India & Iran relations were developing, with India to ship items to Iran for transport to Central Asia. Enabling India to bypass Pakistan.
Does this mean that ends?? Or, has it already ended??
2. Is China transferring its goals with Pakistan to Iran?? Is China dumping Pakistan??
3. Is China going to build road/rail links with Iran across Afghanistan? Or, through Pakistan? For this to work, efficient road/rail connection between Iran & China is needed. Who is going to build this??
Basically, a public show if intent is nothing more than wishes, until the infrastructure is built.
This bit of news is about as important as a fly on an elephant's ass.
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Muslims religious??
You haven't talked to many Muslims privately, have you?
Islam forces a public show of piety.
But, that public piety is often, if no usually, with private actions and thoughts that are very non-Islamic. In fact, Atheism and Agnosticism is quite common.
Also, many "Muslims" are privately Christian, even.
At least, that has been my experience here in the US, Chicago, IL.
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Interesting analogy between a human body and the global body of nations.
When a body has an irritating thing within it,
it can react by creating a hard coating around it,
encapsulating it, thus protecting the body.
This is called a cyst.
China has become a universal irritant to the global body of nations.
The global body of nations is reacting by creating alliances, policies, and agreements
to isolate China, and to protect the global body from it.
China is being isolated.
Isolated physically - tourism is way down.
Isolated financially - Evergrande, et al, will accomplish that
Isolated culturally - the fascination people had with China in 2010, has been replaced with revulsion and disgust.
The isolation will grow,
It will be profound.
China is being put into a cyst of its own making.
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So, when oil is worthless, who will be nations that the US will consider vital??
I think the list will include -- North America and Europe, of course. Too much history and economic ties there.
India, Japan, SK will come to the top, IMO. China will be seen as a Cold War enemy.
I think an alliance has formed between US, India, Japan, and Australia to defend against China, and to contain China.
Renewable energy will make current non-oil countries energy independent.
Japan, for instance, will be greatly helped. Same with Taiwan, SK, Chile, etc.
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Can Turkey lead a bloc of some kind?
OK, what nations would be in that bloc???
Syria? Sorry, taken by Iran.
Iraq? Maybe, but its so divided, that it cannot really ally with anyone.
Saudi Arabia?? No. SA wants to lead its own bloc.
Qatar?? Yep, there's one.
Kuwait? Nope, it allies with the EU and UK.
Egypt?? Nope, it wants to lead, not follow.
Libya? Maybe. But, what faction.
IMO, Turkey has f**ked itself royal.
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Was John Wayne racist? Yes, probably. Did he view himself as racist? Probably not.
A big problem is that racism was so deeply ingrained in our society and culture, that liberals who supported MLK and integration, would routinely do and say something that would be considered racist today.
Part of the journey away from racism is the educating and sensitizing people to it.
BTW -- I use the term "people", and not white or caucasian, intentionally.
IMO - anyone can be racist. Whenever anyone thinks badly of someone because of their race -- to me, that is racism.
So, when a black person, who has experienced it, then treats or looks at white people and makes judgements about them based on their race, then that black person is also being racist. He may be giving back as good as he got --
But, by doing that, racism is perpetuated.
Racism can only be ended, when it is no longer a factor in how we see each other, or treat each other.
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US did not force NATO onto Europe. UK, German, France, Benelux, Denmark, Italy, Greece, and Turkey all wanted it. When Soviet Union fell, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Hungary, and Romania joined as fast as they could. Why?? Because Russia has always been expansionist.
China is expansionist. The countries in the region need a similar alliance to save themselves.
The US will help, just like we helped Europe.
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The Reformation and the Wars of Religion were a direct result of Gutenberg's Bible.
Until then, only monks and priests were allowed to have a Bible.
In fact, the Catholic Church in which I grew up, had no public Bible.
We were give catechisms, or their interpretations of the Bible.
But, the Germans read the Bible, and they said, wait a minute,
there is nothing in the Bible about priests, or confessions, or indulgences,
or a lot of other things the Catholic Church said.
And so, we had a war all about that.
We humans will kill each other over some ink scratches on paper.
Amazing.
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Russia may be militaristic, but it is not a martial culture or society.
Militarism is political. Martial is cultural.
For instance, take Rome, under the Republic.
They had the Campus Mars in the center of Rome,
where the Romans practiced and trained for war ALL THE F**KING TIME.
That is why they could lose battle after battle to Hannibal, and still field armies.
Frederick the Great established a martial culture in his army.
They studied arms, tactics, and strategies. They changed any when it was called for.
The United States has a martial military. Warfare us studied and analyzed all the time.
It's theory is taught at The Naval War College and West Point.
The US has changed its doctrine over last few decades, based upon the outcomes of wargames,
and analytical study.
Russia on the other hand, talks a good game, but the results show they don't study war, and they don't understand how to strategize and perform.
Basically, the Russian military is incompetent, and they don't know what they are doing.
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A problem that both Russia and China is having - is that they threaten with the idea that nations will cave.
For Russia, that countries won't back Ukraine, since it might hurt them financially.
And for China, that countries won't support Taiwan, since they might suffer financially.
I am sure both are surprised that countries choose to back Ukraine and Taiwan,
despite their threats of retribution.
The countries have more integrity and courage than what was expected.
One of the myths Communist regimes have is that democracies are ONLY concerned about money, and that they will take the narrow-minded short-term view all the time.
They don't seem to understand that though we do like prosperity, we like our freedom even more.
We find it dishonorable, and wrong to leave another democratic country to
suffer cruelty and slavery.
Make no mistake, if Ukraine and Taiwan are conquered they
WILL suffer cruelty, and slavery.
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The idea that China's economic slump was due solely to COVID was stupid.
Anyone watching China knew that other serious factors were at play.
I. the real estate collapse and bankruptcies of developers like Evergrande is wreaking tragedy on homeowners. They are losing their life savings in many cases.
2. The CCP has made it very clear that western companies are not welcome. Apple, Samsung, Foxconn, Toyota, and many others have left, or are preparing to leave. The Port of Shanghai's traffic is way down. Containers are piling up on the dock.
3. CCP has increased war tensions. The risk of war increases the risk of all companies doing business in China. Companies are risk averse, so some are leaving for this reason.
Altogether, multiple factors are hitting China's economy at the same time.
If only one was happening, China could probably cope and recover in a short time.
Taken together, it means that China's economy is re-structuring and will not be the same for generations.
If China wants to start the process of healing and recovery, it should start being peaceful.
It should treat its neighbors, and most natural trade partners, with affection.
Too bad, the CCP does not even know how to do that. Its belligerence and combativeness is too deeply engrained in its psyche.
The only mystery now is how far will China decline?
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if China was a person, and was analyzed by a psychiatrist,
the psychiatrist would conclude that his patient is paranoid, delusional, and self-destructive.
That would explain why China has been very systematic in getting everyone angry with it.
Even small countries, like Nepal and Bhutan, have territorial problems with China.
China is paranoid, because it sees all its neighbors as enemies.
China is delusional, because it thinks it has the power to dictate to the countries of the world.
And, China is self-destructive, because it is making enemies of everyone, destroying its relations with export markets.
The US, India, Australia, Canada, and Japan are all now doing their best to reduce imports from China.
The CCP is very sick, and deserves a rubber room.
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No. Trump only suggests birther questions at black candidates. Which is odd, since most black people in the United States have ancestors brought over much earlier than most European Americans. By 1860, most were already here.
Many Europeans came over after the Civil War. I am of Irish descent. From 1835 on my father's side, and about 1870 on my Mother's side. The slave trade started in early 1600's, and kept going until about 1830 or so, I as recall. After Great Britain ended with European slave trade, I think the US importation of slaves decreased to almost zero. So, Kamala Harris' black ancestry almost certainly goes back to at least 1830, I expect.
Trump's birther conspiracies are racist, and he uses them in a racist way.
Since you defend Trump, you are undoubtedly a racist, anyway, and probably misogynist, too.
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I don't think anyone disputes the ability of Russia to design great new weapons - missiles, tanks, and planes..
However, can Russia produce them in enough quantity to be decisive?
There are 285 F-35s in the USAF, with another 169 to be built next year (wikipedia). Eventually, the US will have 2,000+.
I doubt Russia has the money to build the Armata tank, or the stealth jets in enough quantity.
Russia has always been good at missiles and air defense.
I suspect that Russia will build enough Zircon missiles and S-500 batteries to make a difference though.
Long term, Russia's biggest problem is its small economy relative to China and US.
I don't think Russia will be able to keep up, in the long term.
Eventually, China will make effective jet engines, at which time, the Chinese Air Force will dwarf Russia's.
Considering China's hunger for expansion, it will be Russia's main threat.
China wants Siberia.
China declares itself an Arctic power
(how can that be? Unless it gets Siberia.)
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Excellent analysis, as usual.
However, it must be kept in mind the declining geoeconomic influence of oil
Renewable energy and electric vehicles are just beginning to ramp up. Their increase will NOT be linear, but exponential or even logarithmic.
The ONLY reason the world cares about the wars, rivalries and conflicts of the Middle East is oil. Notice - no one cares about conflicts in Africa. No troops went on the ground to rescue Sudan. No one cares about Yemen, since it has no oil. Same with South America.
As oil declines in significance, at some point Saudi regime may not be rescued if it comes under threat. The US quickly came to Saudi's defense when Hussein threatened. In 5, 10, or 15 years, the Suadi regime may be overthrown because no one lands an army to prevent it.
Also, Saudi Arabia's medieval government will become increasingly incapable of governing a nation of over 40 million. The strains of the modern world will be too much for the family monarchy. Plus, the average Arab will likely become resentful of the lazy Saudi family that suck up the money, while contributing little.
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I don't want to see a future aircraft carrier named after Trump.
I would like to see future aircraft carrier named like they were in WW2 -- after battles, and principles of our government.
Like -- Yorktown, Lexington, Saratoga, Brandywine, Oriskany, Bunker Hill, Intrepid, Republic, Democracy, Liberty, De Regula Iuris (Rule of Law), etc.
No more names honoring mediocre presidents.
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Russia's problem is that Putin and others in Russia still view the world through a 19th century lens.
They still think in terms of mercantilism, and do not understand the Global Trading system.
That system guarantees everyone, including Russia and China, full access to free world trade.
They don't even have to have a navy to take advantage of it.
China's growth occurred BEFORE it started building up its military.
China has a military, and is using it to bully and threaten its neighbors.
China threatens the world trade order -- which was the source of its wealth.
That world trade system is now reacting against China, threatening to end China's export led growth.
Russia COULD HAVE DONE THE SAME.
But, NOoooo, Putin has to play the bully and bad guy.
So, the nascent rise of Russia onto the world stage, was ended.
Contracts, like the huge one with Exxon, were cancelled.
Putin has isolated Russia, and hamstrung its economy.
But, Russians still support Putin.
They are not very bright.
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Germany is failing, IMO, in giving leadership Europe so baldly needs.
Germany is conflicted between acting purely in its own narrow self interest,
or acting on broader principles, with a long term vision.
In the EU, Germany is self-serving, which will likely cause nations to leave the EU --
namely Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy as the most likely.
Germany can lead the EU to form a more integrated United Europe.
BUT, when Germany is reluctant to protect itself or Europe,
and is willing to allow a neighbor to be conquered,
then Germany has lost the right to lead.
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You forgot flash floods, especially common in the southwest. In Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico, they have washes or arroyos. They are dry stream beds. Dry, that is, when there is no rain. When it rains, they can quickly become a torrent of water that washes you, your car, and everything else away. The dangerous thing is that the rain may fall miles away, so that you are not aware of it. It could be bright and sunny, and it looks easy to drive across. The road goes that way, so why shouldn't it be safe??
But a rainstorm on a mesa creates a torrent of water that sweeps away unsuspecting victims. Be careful when you come across them. They are called "washes" for a reason - they wash everything away.
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Ending the CCP will take awhile.
First, a regional alliance, like NATO in Europe, needs to be formed. Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization.
Second, isolate China from world trade. China uses trade as a weapon, not just a means of making money.
NATO and the west isolated the Soviet Union, until it fell apart. That Cold War succeeded.
China has pissed everyone off, so boycotting China's exports, and sourcing material from other countries can be done in a few years
As China's exports evaporate - unemployment will rise, capital reserves will disappear, and discontent will increase.
Eventually, the competing factions in China will tear the country apart, and the CCP will fall.
If we are lucky, China will divide into several countries, like it has done several times in the past.
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Excellent analysis. However, all the issues you mentioned will be affected by continuing trends. For instance....
1) Russia's financial power is decreasing compared to Europe and US. Russia's economy is not innovative, nor supporting of trade. IMO, Russia will have less and less to offer Belarus in loans, and other supports.
2) The reverberation of the Soviet bell will diminish over time, both in Belarus and in Russia itself. As both nations become more open and aware of the outside world through trade and travel, their cultures will change. This process has been happening around the world, and it will happen there as well.
3) As the world shifts to renewable energy, the geostrategic power of oil will shrink, and eventually disappear. Russia's reliance on the power of oil will cause Russia to lose almost all power. The only power Russia will have is military, and even that will decline as Russia's economy declines and cannot support a robust military industrial complex.
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I disagree with your first point.
By 2028, there will be less gridlock, not more.
Why?
Simple, the Democrats will win the national debate.
The abortion issue is the most important, IMO.
But, there are others that are driving people out of the Republican party.
For instance, DeSantis was elected governor because he got 60% of the Cuban American vote.
The anti-immigrant, anti-Hispanic, legislation passed will cause many Cuban Americans to vote Democrat, I expect. If so, then FL quickly becomes a blue state.
Abortion is making WI a blue state. The WI Supreme Court became blue because of abortion rights.
Abortion rights will affect many other races.
I expect Democrats to take the House by a nice margin. Democrats should lose the Senate, but have a very good chance at retaining the Senate, because of abortion.
By 2028, I expect the country to have become much more Democratic than it is at present. Republicans will become the minority party. They might even become so weak, that they won't be able to affect legislation much in Congress.
Besides, the government cannot have MORE gridlock than it does at present.
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You must be kidding that no one knows.
I have a Masters from Kellogg, so I am familiar with academia.
Here are some facts ---
1. Men are very practical. Women more into status.
2. Liberal Arts degrees are not paid well. So, men are not going into them very much.
I wonder what the gender ratios are at MIT and IIT??
3. Young men might be finding that there are higher paying alternatives to an academic degree.
Apprenticing to be a plumber, electrician, or welder are ALL better higher paying career choices
than almost any degree.
Each will pay well over $100,000 after a few years of training.
What is more, the US has a severe shortage in all these professions.
Excellent pay, great benefits, good retirement --
why would ANY smart man go to college???
[Kellogg MBA, member of MENSA, so I am not stupid. The world is different now compared to when I was young.
I would advise a young man to look at the trades.]
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@coroner3164 You have a point. Wars are pretty horrible things. However, there are some things that cannot be allowed. For instance, Hitler had to be stopped. He had intentions of conquering the world.
Now, China claiming sovereignty over the SCS has to be stopped. That is a declaration of war on the world trading system, since that would give China the ability to control the maritime trade of the countries in the region.
China cannot be allowed to destroy free and open trade. The livelihoods of millions of people are at stake.
Plus, China is actively interfering with our democratic institutions, which is a form of war.
So, China will now be stopped simple as that.
It is a shame that millions in China will suffer as companies and jobs leave China.
China has started a steep decline, that will only end when it reforms its government.
Personally, I expect the CCP to be out of power within 20 years. Most likely, China will fall apart into several states.
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India needs to get its nose off the ground. The regional problem with China is NOT all about India.
Vietnam, Philippines, and Taiwan face much more serious threat from China.
India can help itself most by assisting the others more.
1. Support for Vietnam, Philippines, and Taiwan should be announced.
2. Andaman naval exercises should be moved, at least occasionally, to the SCS.
3. A formal Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO, like NATO) should be formed to ensure a broad common response to any Chinese aggression on ANY country in the region. (Like now, Lithuania is protected from Russia by NATO.) Vietnam, Myanmar, and the rest should all receive protection from a regional defensive alliance.
The senior members of IPTO should be the Quad - India, US, Japan, and Australia.
India must understand that its problem with China is merely a part of the larger regional problem with China.
A larger regional response is needed.
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The Bulls started as a GREAT organization. The Bulls made the playoffs their first year in existence!!! The only team to have ever done that.
They had quality people - Jerry Sloan, Bob Love, Chet Walker, Norm Van Lier, Artis Gilmore, and so many more.
They didn't win championships then. Came close one year. But, they were always in the playoffs.
With Sloan and Van Lier, you knew they were going to fight hard. Bulls fans came to expect hard working, hard playing, players.
That is why we loved Jordan, Pippin, and Rodman. They brought fight, preparedness, and professionalism --- not just winning.
They played EVERY game of the year. They didn't take games off like the so called stars of today do.
To Jordan, Pippin, Sloan, and Van Lier, today's stars are p***ies.
They cannot play hard. And they whine whine whine. Pathetic.
Simple as that.
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It is not a matter of whether the CCP will fall or not, IMO.
As each Chinese dynasty fell, it was replaced by another, different but the same.
In a democratic system, politicians rise and fall, or parties rise and fall, but the system continues.
When the CCP falls, [and it will fall], the question is
what will replace it??
Will the CCP be replaced by another dictatorship?
Even if the center fails, and China breaks up to become 5 or 6 smaller countries,
will they be authoritarian dictatorships, or can they become democracies?
To me, that is the truly big question.
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The issue is more fundamental. The collapse of a major country can take a long long time. It took centuries for Rome to fall. Tho Ottoman Empire was The Sick Man of Europe for over a century.
I think people expect the world to act like a tv movie, where things resolve in an episode.
For them, a month is a long time.
China will fall, IMO. It will take decades, or longer, though.
Even if Xi falls, that does not mean the system falls.
When monarchies existed, how many kings fell, to be replaced by another king?
When Xi falls, he will be replaced by someone from the CCP.
Change, but no change.
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Mostly a crap list of block busters. All good, only a couple great. Quentin Tarantino knows nothing of war or soldiers. He makes war a joke.
1. The Bridge - German film of ending of war. Small group of young german soldiers defending a pointless small bridge. Phenomenal movie....if you can find it.
2. Attack - Jack Palance, and Eddie Albert as cowardly leader
3 . Tora Tora Tora - the best accounting of the attack on Pearl Harbor
3. The Enemy Below
4. Dambusters - true story, I just love the idea and tech. Plus, it has the best airplane of the war - the Mosquito
5. The Longest Day - How did this not make the list???
6. The Guns of Navarone - if you want fantasy story, here is one better than Inglorious bastards, by far.
7. Operation Petticoat -- if you want a WW2 Comedy, this is the one
8. Caine Mutiny - Humphrey Bogart at his best, with Jose Ferrer too.
9. Heroes of Telemark - True story, Kirk Douglas, what more do you want??
10. Enemies at the Gate - Jude Law, if you want a recent one...this is it. Excellent film.
I think my list is much much better.
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I had no idea all this went on.
For a long time, I felt that if Hitler had NOT done Barbarossa,
but instead, put more forces in Africa, that Rommel could
have gotten the oil in Iraq.
This video shows that it was there for the taking for Hitler.
IF Hitler had NOT done Barbarossa, but instead put all
his efforts on getting Iraq's oil, and kicking Britain out of
the Middle East, he would have achieved a possible war winning advantage.
1. UK would have been separated from India,
2. UK would not have easy access to oil
3. UK and allies would have been kicked out of the Mediterranean. Operation Torch
would have become difficult, if not impossible.
4. Germany would have Russia out-flanked. Germany could have attacked through the
Caucasus and taken Baku, much more easily.
5. Without the oil from Baku, Russia would likely have lost.
I still think the overwhelming production of the US would have still led to Allied victory,
it would have taken longer, and cost more lives.
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Wow. HRC is pushing herself out of the Democratic party, and into total irrelevancy.
The Democratic Party is reclaiming itself as the party of Progressivism --- as it once was under FDR, Truman, Kennedy, and LBJ --- leaving Hillary behind.
After Carter, the Democratic Party moved towards Corporatism. It was finally achieved under Bill Clinton and his "third way". Progressives were sidelined. They were ridiculed, and Progressive ideas were dismissed as too liberal and too crazy.
Meanwhile, the middle class declined. Bill Clinton helped that along with NAFTA. Obama did nothing to stop the decline of the Middle Class, and backed the TPP. Obama killed the idea of single payer health care, and allowed Big Pharma to dictate high drug prices to Medicare and to all Americans (which resulted in death for some, and impoverishment for others.) So, Obama was NOT a Progressive.
Now, Progressivism is coming back because it is the ONLY governing philosophy that puts the quality of life of American Citizens first.
Corporatist Republicans and Corporatist Democrats support Citizens United and the idea that Corporations are People, and that money is speech, enabling the super rich to buy our politicians and our government.
HRC is a Corporatist - along with Biden, Buttegieg, Amy Klochubar and every other candidate that takes money from the PAC's. Only Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are untainted, and unbought.
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OMG, not another video quoting the incompetent CSIS "war gaming" analysis.
The assertions made in it are ridiculous.
For example, it states that the US will lose 4 nuclear subs.
Oh yeah? HOW?? China has no ability to find, let alone target and destroy them.
It states the China will sink two aircraft carriers?
Oh yeah? How? Our carriers will NOT be put so close to China to make them easy targets.
Besides -- why should US or Japan get involved at all???
I have yet to see or read anything that gives a reasonable way for China to avoid having its fleet sunk and neutralized by
the anti-ship missiles of Taiwan -- HF-2, HF-2e, and HF-3, along with Harpoon missiles.
Look at the difficulty the Allies had invading the Normandy beaches.
The Allies had air dominance, and thousands of ships, with trained & experienced crews.
China has none of that.
Plus, modern anti-ship missiles make such an assault doomed.
AND - Taiwan missiles are ALL equipped with modern ECCM capability.
China won't be able to shoot down many.
The CSIS report is incompetent, and should be discarded.
American airpower will NOT likely play a significant role in defending Taiwan.
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An ancient Greek saying goes, "Be careful what you wish for, you might get it."
Well, the voter suppression bills going through state governments, is like that, I think.
Same with the Republican efforts to kill the Voting Rights Bill in the House.
Let's assume that all the Republican efforts succeed -- will that benefit the GOP???
I don't think so. The opposition will be energized. They will organize.
Moreover, IMO most Republican voters actually do believe in democracy, and many will switch to the D column.
Trying to re-write history, and to remake the US into a divided hateful fascist country, I think, is doomed to failure.
Already, the R's have had a remarkable string of losses.
Voter suppression efforts are going to make the decline of the GOP deeper and longer-lasting.
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You throw around numbers as if they mean the same thing.
Chinese numbers, IMO, are not the same as US numbers.
For instance, you mentioned a factory being built by China as "infrastructure". Huh??
A factory is NOT infrastructure. From US, such a thing would be built by a company for itself or a partner, and would NOT be deemed infrastructure.
You also mention China is better at building than US. WTF??
Yes, our infrastructure needs help -- but that is by OUR standards, which are very high.
In China, bridges and dams fail all the time. It is SOP for them.
Considering that Bechtel & Halliburton are two of the biggest and most respected building firms in the world, and based in the US, what you said is both insulting and extremely incorrect.
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Hard?? Impossible without total air supremacy, which I do not believe China can accomplish.
Ships in the Taiwan Strait are sitting ducks for rockets, artillery, submarine, and air attack.
Does anyone really think China can run that gauntlet, and not lose an unacceptable number of ships??
Of course, the idea is to eliminate the Taiwanese air force, land based assets, and submarines.
DO you really think China has the ability?? I don't.
This video thinks that satellite surveillance will tell China where all assets are and that they can then be easily destroyed. No chance....
1. The Taiwanese are totally aware of Chinese recon ability. That recon can be fooled with props and dummies.
2. The time delay of getting info from recon to front line means that assets won't be where they think they are -- they will have moved.
3. Many small assets - rockets & artillery can be quite easily camouflaged until needed. The Chinese won't know where a rocket installation is until a rocket is fired and sinks a ship. An installation with 20-30 rockets can be hidden until used. Taiwan would have dozens of such installations.
BTW - these rockets would have the entire strait within range. ALL SHIPS WOULD BE VULNERABLE.
Would you launch an invasion in such circumstances???
You would be an idiot if you did. Are the Chinese idiots?? Not usually, but Xi is a bit off, so maybe.
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Why would any company that wants to sell its products globally use ANY Chinese made parts or sub-assemblies??
China's aggressive behaviors, and military threats has made it unpopular in many countries.
China is actually doubling down on its wolf warrior approach.
The continued violation of UNCLOS may end up getting sanctions from several countries.
The US, India, Australia, and EU may deal with China with sanctions, increased tariffs, and import/export bans.
That puts the ability to produce at risk.
More importantly, it puts the ability to sell in some countries at risk.
For instance, India may quite easily ban products with Chinese content -- just as it banned phone apps from China.
India is now a larger market than China. India has more people under 40, and under 30, than China has. Those are the people that buy.
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Regarding planes....after the start of the war, the US designed and built the following...
Hellcat, Corsair, P-47, P-51, B-24, B-26, B-29, and thousands of C-47's.
The P-38 was designed before the war started, but it was built in numbers, and then shot down Yamamoto.
Remember the Liberty ships.
And don't forget we supplied UK and Soviet Union with arms and transport units.
The production capacity of America was prodigious.
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India needs to understand that it is now in a race.
A restructuring of world manufacturing is underway.
The Great Dispersal of manufacturing out of China is taking place.
Vietnam, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, Columbia, India, and other countries
will be the recipients.
India could be the great winner --
IF it aggressively pursued and welcomed the companies.
I do not expect that to happen, though.
It is not India's tradition or habit to do that.
India is changing, and becoming more welcoming, but the change is not happening fast enough.
In a few years, the Great Dispersal will be mostly done, and India will likely have missed a big opportunity.
It will still benefit. Just not as much as it could have.
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Your history is wrong --
1. The Bay of Pigs affair, and the Cuban missile crisis are unrelated.
2. In 1959, Castro took over in Cuba. Many refugees left Cuba and went to Florida.
Under Eisenhower, the CIA planned an invasion of Cuba, using Cuban refugees, to invade Cuba at the Bay of Pigs. Kennedy pulled the plug on that operation. The Cuban refugees went ahead anyway, and were defeated. That defeat was put on Kennedy as a failure. He caught a lot of political heat for that.
3. A year later, in 1962, the Cuban missile crisis happened.
I believe we already had missiles in Turkey, being put their in the Eisenhower administration.
To end the Cuban missile crisis, Kennedy offered to take our missiles out of Turkey.
I believe that assurance was verbal only. The missiles in Turkey were removed about 6 months after the crisis ended, as I recall.
Bottom line --- those were two different crises.
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The major problem is that the connection between climate and weather is statistical. Hurricanes, floods, and storms occur whether global temps go up or stay the same. With increased energy in the climate system, the PROBABILITY of extreme storm events increase.
BUT, it is impossible to say whether a specific storm was caused or amplified because of global warming.
For instance, 4 hurricanes are in the eastern Pacific -- very odd. Statistically, we may say it was PROBABLY due to GW, but we cannot definitively say so.
Statistics is not something that reporters understand or feel comfortable with, nor does it lend itself to short readable stories.
The main problem, IMO, causing the poor understanding of global warming is the huge amount of denier propaganda. This propaganda is designed to confuse the public, and to blunt any efforts to do anything about it, and it is succeeding.
Don't blame the press. Blame the oil companies.
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Confrontational foreign policy - when did other countries do that??? Let's see...
1. Nazi Germany prior to WW2. - result - war
2. Napoleonic France - result - war
3. Ottoman Empire in 16th Century - result - siege of Vienna, and Balkan wars.
4. Stalin just after WW2 - The Berlin Blockade - result - the Cold War
As you can see, the typical result of a "confrontational foreign policy" is war, or something very close to war.
China is forcing countries to react similar to what happened to Stalin's Soviet Union.
I expect a "Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization (IPTO)" to be created, similar to NATO.
As NATO stabilized Europe, and prevented the Soviet Union from dominating and controlling Europe, so too will IPTO contain and control China.
As NATO stabilized Europe, and allowed it to grow and prosper, and allowing its institutions to mature......
so too, will IPTO stabilize the Indo-Pacific and bring long term peace. All the countries will be able to grow and develop in peace.
If IPTO is formed, I expect US, India, Japan, and Australia to be its senior members -- as US, UK, Germany, and France are the senior members of NATO. The other regional nations will be involved, of course.
This would be good for China, too. For China would no longer be tempted to play with war.
For, if war does break out with China in the region, I think that will be the most disastrous thing that could happen to China.
Its economy would collapse, and its governing regime would likely fall.
In fact, if China goes to war, I expect that would result in China breaking up into several countries.
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My problem with Noam Chomsky is that he demonizes business and enterprise.
Many evils have been done for profit, even entire industries were evil -- like the plantation system using slave labor.
However, business & enterprise are inherently evil. Just as unions are not inherently good.
It is business & enterprise that has given us today's world of plenty.
If you read history, you will find how hard life was before the modern era.
Now, the big problem is how to equitably distribute the wealth produced by our industry.
At the start, capitalists kept it all for themselves. Workers had to fight for improvements.
Labor gave us the 40 hour week, health benefits, job safety, and so much more.
But, we also got mafia run unions. [There are also mafia run companies.]
As a Progressive, I see worth and value in labor, business, and capital.
Each contribute to our economy, and to the wealth of nations.
When one is considered evil, that leads to suppression and the mass killing of "the other".
Class warfare tears societies and economies apart.
The cure for corporate abuse is not destroying them. It is in regulating them with good laws, good government, and good courts.
The biggest danger that we now face is the current supreme court, and the Republican Party fomenting bad laws, bad government, and corrupt courts.
No system government will govern well under those conditions.
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I do believe China will have a Pyrrhic victory in the South China Sea. They will be able to grab the resources. But, it will cost them dearly, and gain them little. Let me explain --
1. The colonial period was the time of resource wars. Land grabbing and sucking raw materials from colonies was the pattern.
2. Then came the Industrial Revolution. Economies became strong on value-added modifications to raw materials, not the resources themselves -- except for energy.
3. We are now moving into the post-Industrial world. Already manufacturing holds a much smaller portion of world GDP, than it did 50 years ago. Some of the richest countries by per capita have very few resources - Japan, Holland, Switzerland, Denmark, and Israel.
4. We are moving into a post-carbon fuel future. Despite Trump, Texas is the leader in wind power, solar power plants are being built around the world. They are cheaper than carbon fueled plants. Soon all new power plants will be renewable fueled.
5. China is pissing off the nations that are its closest natural markets. Also, by increasing tensions, it is forcing companies to go to lower risk environments, like India, africa and South America.
6. By losing friends, it will get little help or sympathy when it suffers economic recession or depression. How do I know that is coming??? Simple, all economies eventually experience them. When it happens its good to have friends. What country now is a true friend of China? America has many friends. A lot of critics, too, but many true friendly nations. Will Philippines stick with China in times of trouble? -doubtful.
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@arbrianna672 WOW ! ! you even know his first name. So, you're from my era. Makes sense. The kids today know nothing about music. I remember when funk and jive was all done to 8 count beats -- and standing in two opposing lines, everyone would get a chance to strut their stuff dancing down the line. Dance called "In the Ghetto", or "the Driver", or "Rapper", or.... But, all 8 count, with layers of beats. That was when black music was BLACK. Now, I don't know WTF it is -- simple 2 count beats, hardly any melody, no talent voices ...
Sorry, I like soul, jive, folk, opera, Irish, C&W, ...all kinds....but NOT rap.
Oops. Sorry for the rant.
You do impress me -- knowing Makeba & Olatunji. Cool.
I am in Chicago. What city you in??
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Again, the elephant is the room is ignored. --- Siberia.
China has been challenging the borders of its neighbors - India, Japan, Vietnam.
But, not Russia --- yet.
In fact, China has more real claim to Siberia than its spurious claims to the SCS, Japan's islands, Kashmir, etc. Also, Siberia is empty. More people could be used to exploit its resources, which are great. Moreover, Siberia borders the Arctic and could be a way for China to become an Arctic country.
Will China begin pressuring Russia to return Siberia to it??
I wonder.....
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Another incompetent aspect of this "game" is that the alliances don't seem to be depicted.
1. US & Japan have a defensive alliance. Any attack by China on ANY bases inside Japan, would result in BOTH being involved. Attacking only American bases does NOT mean Japan would not be obligated to be involved. Why don't they know that??
2. AUKUS exists -- don't they know that?? Australia and UK would be involved from the first moment in this scenario, yet they act like they are not part of it.
3. No mention is mentioned of impact on maritime trade and blockades
ALL maritime trade to/from China would CEASE immediately. ALL ships going to China would alter course to other ports. Ships leaving China, would leave and never return. Chinese cargo ships would be seized.
4. ALL oil imports to China would be blocked.
5. American submarine MK 48 torpedoes have range of 25 miles, and would decimate Chinese naval ships.
6. Sea mines would prevent any landings by Chinese navy fleet. Minesweepers would be destroyed as they try to clear the way.
China has NO HOPE of a successful invasion of Taiwan. Its invasion fleet would be destroyed in several ways -- torpedoes, mines, missiles, or shore artillery. Not to mention being struck by Taiwan attack aircraft.
How can ANYONE with any knowledge of modern weaponry entertain the idea that Taiwan is defenseless and will likely lose??
From my analysis, I don't see how Taiwan can be defeated.
If anyone thinks I am wrong, please explain what my mistakes are.
Can you show me how I am wrong??
Please, I would like to know.
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@donjuan4947
For 2. Both UK & Australia can help in blockading the Malacca and Sunda Straits. Australia being there for support, supplies, and logistics can be very helpful. But, you are right that a China attack on Japan won't involve direct combat by either, IMO.
For 4 - Peter Zeihan makes a point about Russian pipelines going to Europe, but NONE to China. Russia cannot transport oil easily to China. Maritime shipments of oil or anything else would be easily stopped.
As I mentioned, shipments by non-Chinese ships would cease due to lack of insurance.
Shippers cannot get insurance for war zones.
I am sure China would be able to get some oil, somehow. But it would not be enough to make much difference, IMO.
BTW..I am sure that our Navy and State department know all this. That is one big reason that Biden's policies have not been that much different from Trump's.
Much of our foreign policy is driven by our institutions. That is how the US had a consistent Cold War policy towards the Soviet Union. From 1948 to 1990, our policies did not waver or change in any way. Democrat or Republican president, it was all the same.
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Sabine, I think you (and others) are making a serious mistaken assumption.
The common mistaken assumption (IMO) is that the annual current rise of 2.5ppm CO2
comes solely from human activities.
This is why I think that is wrong.
== In 2000, CO2 was going up by about 1ppm/year.
Now, it is going up at about 2.5ppm/year.
I do not think that human economic activity has increased by 100% to 150% causing that increase in CO2 all by ourselves.
I think that nature is kicking in a lot of CO2 from melting permafrost, or even undersea clathrates.
IF (big IF, admittedly) I am right, then even if we achieve NET ZERO, the Earth will continue to add CO2 to keep the process going.
Paleo-geologists think this happened in the past and was the cause of the Paleo-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM).
During the PETM, no ice existed at the poles.
Alligators, snakes, and ferns existed in the Arctic.
Oceans were 200 feet deeper (no ice).
Is that our fate??
If I am right, then the ONLY way to stop it is by CO2 Removal.
Merely going NET ZERO will have no effect, other than to delay the inevitable.
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A Chinese to Taiwan invasion timeline --
1. Preparations and mobilization -- weeks or months will be needed to gather the men, materiel, and ships for the invasion. Taiwan would see this, and start preparing themselves. Codes would be changed. Missile batteries would be re-positioned, and camouflaged.
2. 6 am - China launches invasion, over 500 ships leave port.
Taiwan does nothing. Taiwan will wait until invasion fleet enters ROK waters -- about 50 miles halfway between China and Taiwan.
Massive airstrikes are made on Taiwan. Few missile batteries or air facilities are seriously damaged.
3. 9 am - China's fleet enters ROK waters. Taiwan still does not attack.
4. 10:30 am - China's fleet is about 25 miles from invasion beaches.
NOW - Taiwan strikes. 2000 HF-2 and HF-3 anti-ship missiles are launched. At least 300 ships are sunk, including all troop ships.
Meanwhile, 500 HF-2e cruise missiles are fired at Chinese land targets. The HF-2e can go about 1,000 miles, with a warhead 1/2 the size of a Tomahawk missile. Governmental, military, and infrastructure will be prime targets.
By end of day one, China's invasion is utterly destroyed and defeated.
US Navy orders to our Navy for redeployment are cancelled.
Is this optimistic? Maybe.
BUT -- can anyone show why this is not likely?
Can ANYONE show how China can avoid being blown out of the water by anti-ship missiles??
BTW -- i did not involve the Harpoon missiles they have. I did not use the airborne anti-ship missiles of ROK. I did not use any mines, or torpedoes that ROK likely has.
I did not go into the anti-air war part because I don't think it will have much of an effect on Taiwan's ability to fire its missiles.
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After the redistribution of manufacturing out of China, I think the world will be much better off.
Manufacturing will be distributed to many countries -- India, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and other countries in Africa and South America.
I think some manufacturing will even return to advanced countries like Australia, US, EU countries, UK, and Canada.
The world's supply chains will be more robust and resilient.
There won't be a single point of failure, nor one country that can threaten it.
I am happy this is happening.
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Again, another case of some making "observations" and comments from the standpoint of ignorance or American History.
The speaker is obviously a child, with no recollection of the Vietnam War.
The events of the past few years do not show a nation any more "broken" than the United States was during that era.
Then there were the eras before that when the US showed it was a divided "Broken" country.
1919 race riots.
The putting down of the Bonus Army in Washington DC by Douglas MacArthur.
The Civil War - we certainly were broken in that time.
Even when we were victorious in war and expanded our country - Mexican War & Spanish American War -- there was huge opposition to our imperialist actions.
The Haymarket Riots in Chicago - protesting working conditions, and caused the US to build armories in Chicago Parks, so that the US could put down future labor riots. The focus at the time was that immigrant foreigners (sound familiar) were the cause of unrest and insurrection. The Irish, Poles, and Italians were considered inferior and seditious.
The Know-Nothing Party was like today's Tea Party - it was anti-immigration.
The more you learn of American History, the more you will see common threads that keep re-appearing.
What we are seeing today, are those same threads of intolerance, racism, and corporatism that were part of this country when it was founded.
That is both reassuring and despairing.
Despairing in that we have not been able to rid ourselves of these flaws after all these years.
Reassuring in that we have survived, thrived, and advanced DESPITE having these flaws.
We will cope. We will make some progress, as we have in the past.
And, our nation will survive, thrive, and advance.
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@marmalaterjones4526 They did not see themselves that way.
Today, whites are all lumped together as "Europeans".
Back then, they did not get along, and saw each other as being different.
The Irish were looked upon as being less than human -- housing restriction, work restrictions, and police brutality. (sound familiar?)
Remember, Europe fought wars because they hated each other.
Hitler killed Poles, Russians, Jews in gas chambers because he saw them as sub-human.
Your remark about Yugoslavia is correct, except that in Yugoslavia, the groups had identity to land and region.
The groups in the US (except for the Confederates in the South, do not have identity to a territory or region (though there may be attempts at getting "turf" in a city.)
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Having seen this film many times, I have to disagree with you as to what makes it great. Yes, the FX are great. But, that is not what does it. For me, it is the slow scenes showing the thinking and maneuvering on both sides. EG Marshall trying to convey urgency, and convince the president to action. The frustrating use of telegrams to communicate, too late, to Pearl Harbor. The vain efforts of Admiral Kimmel to interpret vague orders. All the small, yet understandable, misconceptions leading to wrong decisions by so many, like the officer wanting "confirmation" of enemy naval intercept at the entrance to the harbor.
It is all these things, plus the great writing, that keeps me coming back to this movie, over and over and over and.....
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America's policy towards Taiwan has been called "strategic ambiguity". We recognized PROC, but supported ROC, under the table.
China also had its own "strategic ambiguity" on Taiwan. They would say it was part of China, and wanted it back, but would not say when or how that would happen. It would happen "someday".
Both lived with that ambiguity.
China, under Xi, has left "strategic ambiguity", forcing US to do so, too.
Recently, Biden answered a question, stating that the US would back Taiwan fully if it is attacked.
So, Biden has already abandoned "strategic ambiguity".
Now, nothing is gained by not recognizing Taiwan.
I expect Taiwan recognition by the US to happen during Biden's administration.
The only real question is "How will it be done?"
The US could recognized Taiwan unilaterally.
OR, it could recognize Taiwan in a joint statement from AUKUS, or even better, the Quad.
I really want to see that.
Xi will go absolutely nuts.
It will be fun to watch. 😂😂🤣🤣💋💋
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@lip124 What's the problem??
You get in a plane with your mates. You wait awhile, then you all jump out at 5,000 feet. A turbulent wind scatters your platoon all over the place.
Half of your friends were shot coming down. No big deal -- you are OK.
Oops, you have to fight for your life. You have a good rifle. But, you are being fired at by mortars, artillery, and rockets.
You might feel a bit uneasy, but you take heart that the geniuses at HQ got this all figured out.
You and some guys have taken refuge in a ditch, waiting for reinforcements, ammo, and some food.
Oops, no resupply.
You realize you are done for.
So you put a bullet in your brain.
Yep, an air assault is the way go.
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@АлександрДрагович-ч2г That is an odd take on history. From your script, I take it you are Russian.
Like the typical Russian, you see the world through paranoid lenses, and think everything countries do is to hurt Russia.
In 1815, Americans did not even know Russia existed. Those that did know, did not care.
We had two wars with Britain, and were glad to see the end of them. We did not know about the developing "Great Game" in Asia.
As for 1991, that was the Soviet Union collapsing in on itself, which has to do with the policies, philosophy, and structure of the USSR.
Its demise was inevitable.
What is a shame is the disagreeable direction that Putin has taken Russia.
Putin has not helped Russia, IMO.
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Regarding undersea cables.. All of Taiwan's cables come in at Taipei, according a map I saw.
However, ALL of China's undersea cables came in at only Hong Kong and Shanghai, according to the same map.
A Taiwanese submarine with undersea covert operational capability (i.e. scuba divers, or submersible) could locate and cut those cables, just as easily as China could cut theirs.
Moreover, China's cables went to Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Singapore, and Malaysia.
IF China were to start a war that those countries didn't like --
WHY can't those countries merely block the communication cables coming from China???
That would be a serious, but VERY EASY, form of blockade on China.
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Biden's support for Taiwan is more important than Trump's.
Trump's actions seemed whimsical, sometimes contradictory. He could reverse himself quite easily.
So, the long term implications of his policies were uncertain, at best.
Biden's policies are better thought out, and we can have confidence that they are part of a long lasting policy.
We shall see Biden giving unequivocal support to Taiwan.
Biden will make long term alliances with Japan and Australia to support Taiwan.
I am sure he would like to also have an alliance, or at least a strong understanding with India, regarding support of Taiwan.
However, India does not like alliances, and many in India still don't like the US.
So, India may not want to work with us.
Either way, Biden will show strong support to Taiwan.
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Authoritarian rulers seem to have a pattern of behavior.
1. They see all problems as being solvable using their military.
2. They under-estimate the power of other countries - especially democracies.
For some reason, they see democracies as weak. Historically, this has proved to be extremely STUPID.
The most successful powers in the last 400 years include, Great Britain, United States, and the Dutch Republic. No one dares invade Switzerland. Democracies have proved their power, repeatedly.
3. Authoritarian rulers tend to overplay their hand. Hitler did. Napoleon did.
Interestingly, Stalin & Mao did not against the US. They made sure the Korean War stayed limited.
That could be because the US had just proved its might in WW2. So, they did NOT under-estimate the US.
4. At least with Hitler and Putin, they don't trust their military, reducing its effectiveness.
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@Grundewalt I appreciate that.
But, in organizations (any organization) there is the problem of good information getting to the top.
Russia is a kleptocracy. Administrators are stealing left and right. HOWEVER, they also have responsibilities.
SO, military administrators are lining their pockets, stealing money for maintenance, training, parts, etc.
SO, when they have to put a army unit in the field, they have to show Putin that the army unit is equipped and capable (at least I assume that).
So they present to Putin that the army is in great shape.
So, the question is -- How much does Putin know of the degradation of the military??
I bet he has no clear idea.
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@robgrune3284 China has a major base in Djibouti, and in Gwardar, Pakistan. They had tried to get a base in Sri Lanka, but India shut that down.
The fact China has few bases is indicative that China has few friends.
For instance, Philippines asked the US to come back to Subic Bay.
Japan likes us in Yokohama.
Italy likes us in Naples.
US has joint naval exercises with many countries, who are our friends -- Philippines, Japan, India, Australia, ROK, Italy, France, UK, Canada, and many others.
China is well hated, now that it is using wolf warrior tactics.
You need to read a bit more. I know you hate America. But, keep an open mind.
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You really don't understand what is going on, do you???
The trade war was overtaken by geopolitical issues. It is no longer about trade.
What is wrong with China will not be fixed, cannot be fixed, by tariff agreements.
1. China's claims of sovereignty over the SCS, is really an attempt to gain economic control of the entire region.
The countries of the region rely on maritime trade through the SCS, and if China can exercise sovereignty, then all the countries will become vassal states.
That is what is really at stake. Don't you see that?? It is obvious.
2. China is bullying nations all over the world. Hostage diplomacy with Canada, and Australia.
3 Bully Australia, and India. Even threatening war with America.
4. Threatening war with Taiwan.
5. Threatening war with Japan.
6. Invading the EEZ zones of nations around the world, stealing their fish -- Argentine, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Indonesia, Japan, etc. Nations are upset. Violence has happened. Boats sunk. Sailors killed. n
All these issues go way beyond the petty concerns of a trade war.
The Quad has grown, and will likely expand into a defensive alliance against China.
You don't mention these things. Are you sleeping??
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I am sick and tired of supposed super powers, Russia & China, saying they have to threaten military action
because we are insecure. We might be attacked, and then, oh what should we do??
YET - both Russia and China create the problem they say they don't want.
China has created enemies. 10 years ago, no one was thinking of interfering with China's maritime trade through the Mallaccas.
Now, however, India, Vietnam, and others are making sure they can, just in case China attacks them.
The EU thought it had a deal with Russia, to keep Ukraine as a neutral buffer.
No one was thinking of attacking Russia.
But, now, Russia is threatening Europe and the Middle East, so everyone has to prepare for ways to attack Russia, if they end up having to do that.,
Russia & China create the problem they say they don't want.
If they don't want to be attacked, why don't they just STOP threatening others??
Why don't they stop making everyone nervous??
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Whoa, wait a minute. You have Portugal claiming the depths of the Atlantic Ocean --- beyond the extent of the Eurasian continent.
For instance, look at the North Sea -- it is all continental shelf. Britain, Norway, and the Netherlands would have claims to all of it.
Or look at Iceland. It gets the 200 mi EEZ, but nothing beyond that because there is little continental shelf for it, as I see it.
So, I doubt very much that Portugal will get the "abyssal plains" of the Atlantic Ocean.
It that happens, then the US will also greatly increase in size as we would do the same thing to Hawaiian Islannds, Wake, Guam, Aleutians, and Marshall Islands. Imagine how much ocean territory we would get.
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Winter forcing a lull in the fighting benefits Ukraine, IMO.
Ukraine will use that break more effectively.
Ukraine will further train its troops.
Ukraine will resupply all its units much better than Russia.
Ukraine will get more supplies from the west -- gps artillery, tanks, planes, helicopters, radars, defense units, etc.
Through the winter, Ukraine will continue the HIMARS destruction of Russian bridges, logistics hubs, ammo dumps, fuel depots, and command centers. Russia will find dealing with the destruction to be more difficult during the winter.
When fighting starts up again in the spring, Russia will be in poor condition to fight.
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China started war with the world.
It has threatened war with --- Taiwan, Japan, US, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Sweden, Canada, UK, and others.
China forgot that all those countries were their customers.
Not too bright, IMO.
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IMO, the "Italy First" approach was necessary, due to the inexperience of the American military, AND the need to develop cooperating procedures between UK & USA military.
Now, the generalship in Italy, after Sicily, seemed rather poor. But, this was probably also a benefit, by enabling the identifying capabilities of the officers. Would D-Day have been as successful if led by Gen. Mark Clark, Gen John Lucas, and Gen Harold Alexander??
Italy was necessary for D-Day's success, IMO.
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One more thing -- renewable energy.
Solar energy is expanding very fast in the US, Europe, and elsewhere.
You won't see its impact year by year.
But, each year, more power will generated using renewables, and proportionately less with fossil fuels.
So, slowly, oil will diminish as a strategic resource.
At some point, maybe 2040, or 2050, or 2060, Saudi oil wont matter to the world.
That will profoundly change everything.
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You missed a serious tank category - how used & deployed, or the organization and doctrine of tanks.
During the Battle of France, the Germans had fewer and "inferior" tanks. However, German tank doctrine created success.
Doctrine gave them two advantages - 1) tank units, separate from infantry, and 2) radios, for improved C&C.
The Sherman Tank was one the best, IMO, because it was produced in huge numbers, and was very reliable, and was easily maintained in the field. Its firepower was adequate, and armor well sloped. It had good speed. There were too few Tiger Tanks to make any difference. Panzer V tanks were more common, but still too few to really matter.
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I think the pandemic has given us a glimpse of the future. I expect oil to make a comeback after a vaccine or cure is found.
However, the move to renewable energy is unstoppable. Sometime in next 5 to 10 years. peak global oil demand will be reached.
Its usage will decline inexorably after that. This will have profound effects.
What will happen in the Middle East once its oil is no longer essential to the world economy.
Well, look at Africa or South America -- when there is strife or conflict in those regions -- who cares??
Has anyone really cared about what has been going on in Africa??
Even the countries with oil - Nigeria, South Sudan, and Somalia - don't get much attention.
United States and EU has shown some interest in the Libyan conflict -- but have either put troops there???
Twenty years ago, you know damn well that US, UK, and EU would have put troops there and made sure they had access to that oil.
Not anymore. Let Russia, Turkey, and Egypt fight it out over Libya and its oil.
We really don't care much anymore.
30 years ago, the US put troops into Saudi Arabia to kick Hussein out of Kuwait, and protect the monarchy.
If that happened today --- would the US care enough to spend so much to protect Saudi oil and monarchy??
Personally, I doubt it. In ten years, the idea of the US propping up the Saudi family will be seen as ludicrous.
MBS's war crimes and cruelty will only hasten the time when America abandons the Saudis.
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CipiRipi00 I am impressed. I read history, but, it seems you read the footnotes, too.
Our discussion started with a Chinese warship ramming an American.
Ironic that in this age of hypersonic anti-ship missiles, that China reverts to ramming.
BTW, your detailed account of Lepanto was interesting. I had read a couple of accounts, and did not get the immobility of the galleasses.
And, yes ramming was the epitome of naval warfare, until the English changed it with long range naval artillery.
Once the ships were wood, and men of steel.
Now the ships are of steel, and men of soft wood.
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Aren't most wars "Resource Wars"???
Rome conquered Iberia for Silver, Britain for Tin, Gaul for slaves.
There were wars over the sugar colonies of the Caribbean, spice islands of the East Indies, Asian trade routes, colonization conquests, 100 Years War, Mongol conquests, Spanish American War, Viking conquests, raids of the Sea Peoples ~1200 BC. etc etc. There are some wars over succession, or just as an expression of ruler's testosterone levels, I guess. But, it seems to me the almost all can be traced down to wanting or protecting a resource.
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This happening in public is great for Ukraine, since it makes it clear to Europe and Americans, too, that Trump will NOT support Ukraine.
I think UK, France, Germany and many other European states will step up to the plate.
To help pay for their efforts, they will cut back on most weapons purchases from the US.
Boeing, Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, GD, and the rest can all expect their sales in Europe to crater.
Of course, if that happens, NATO is done.
Good job Trump.
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As always, you give a very concise and precise explanation. Very easy to understand.
I like how you don't break it down by attributes, and then give ratings to them.
Basically, you say the situation and the style of combat determines which shield is "best".
At the end of the empire, we see a rise of horse fighters (knights, Huns, catafracts, etc) and archers (esp. horse archers - Huns, Parthians).
Why did this happen?? Was it the development of the stirrup? Was it new tactics??
YET -- we see the Swiss using halberds to counter knights, which were as long as the spears in phalanxes, which also negated horsemen.
So, was a bit of forgetting and then rediscovering equipment and tactics part of what happened???
How important was the compound bow to this?? Or, didn't the Romans have compound bows?? (I don't think so. But, if the Parthians did, then the Romans knew about them - they were slaughtered by them.)
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This is old.
US & China are already at war. Not a shooting war (yet), but a war nonetheless.
China's strategy is pretty stupid, and will bring about its defeat.
By threatening all its neighbors, including Russia, China has no friends in the region.
A few years ago, America's presence seemed unnecessary, and regional countries were becoming less welcoming of American military presence.
Now, that has all changed. US is back at Subic Bay. US Navy has visited Vietnam's Da Nang port.
All the countries in the region have increased military spending dramatically.
China's push into the South China Sea is not benefitting it at all, yet it persists.
At some point, a naval ship will be sunk.
China might sink a Vietnamese, Filipino, Taiwanese, Indonesian or some other nations ship.
OR, one of China's ships might be fired on and sunk.
Vietnam & Philippines now have Brahmos missiles, which can sink ships, and they are long ranged.
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@fasoooli2751 Correct. Democracy is merely a process of counting votes. The majority can often be wrong. Very wrong.
BUT -- the other option is to have a person who decides what is right and wrong for everyone.
That is ALWAYS subject to abuse.
If you don't have democracy, then you will have some kind of autocracy.
Sure, you can have wise kings.
But, you can also have crazy cruel ones -- see Caligula, Hitler, Ottoman Sultans, Stalin, etc.
A democracy will reflect the people that have it. That i why Vermont is a very different place from Mississippi. The people are different, so the democratic results are different.
A democracy in a Muslim country will be different from US or Denmark.
HOWEVER, if a democracy oppresses selected people within the society, then injustice is created. See American slavery, or South African Apartheid.
Such a democracy will eventually have a crisis.
A democracy that is not fair and just to all its people violates the basic principles of democracy.
Unlike a monarchy, which assumes an aristocracy, that are privileged and special under the law. See Saudi Arabia.
Or a Theocracy, where clerics are privileged and special under the law. See Iran.
Anytime some people are privileged, you will have abuse and injustice.
Such a system is doomed to unrest and collapse, though it could exist for many years or decades.
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It won't work. Big Tech is not a set of technologies, or a pile of patents.
Big Tech is a process - a process fueled by an ecology of people, companies, universities, and capital.
China has part of that ecology, but China is destroying that ecology with its trade wars, ignoring contracts, and attacks on personal freedoms.
Companies with technology and research will no longer go to China with their good stuff.
Right now, China is riding high on what was built in China from Deng to 2013.
After Xi took over, his policies are destroying China's advantages.
By 2030, you will see a wholly different China.
The countries it bullies, will have found ways of coping and living w/o China.
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He makes a good point.
However, wars also end upon war weariness of the participants.
War weariness can take a VERY long time.
The Thirty Years War basically ended with everyone just too sick of it to continue.
Neither the Catholics or Protestants could win. So, the nations agreed that religion was
not really very important, and that freedom of religion will be allowed in Western Europe.
BUT -- it took 30 years for that to happen.
Putin is driving this war --- not some strong underlying passion, like religion.
IMO, this war will continue until Russia tires of it. At that time, Putin will be killed,
and Russia will stop the war.
The big question, not yet talked about, is "How should the west treat Russia, when the war ends?"
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Actually not. Milankovich cycles are real, or more accurately, WERE real.
Humanity's CO2 and CH4 emissions have overwhelmed them.
If humanity were not here, then they would have already started the slow decline into an ice age. With CO2 levels on course to go over 500ppm by 2060, ice will retreat much further.
Ocean levels will rise.
If the levels remain at 500ppm, or go even higher to 600ppm or 700ppm, the ice caps will totally melt, and the Earth will be without natural ice.
An ice free Earth has not been seen since the Paleo-Eocene Thermal Maximum of 55mya.
In this future flooded world, if you have your scuba gear, you will be able to explore the Tower of London, the Lincoln Memorial, or New York's Central Park.
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OBOR was destined to fail. Its main purpose seems to have been to tie countries to China with debt. That is, to make debt slaves of countries.
Well, European countries tried that with colonialism, and they had the ability to have armies enforce their will.
UK took over Egypt in the 1800's from debts Egypt accrued in building the Suez Canal. But, they still had to put an army there.
How can China enforce the payment of debts in Sri Lanka, Kenya, Nigeria, etc??? They can't. Powers of the world would not allow it.
The people of those countries would not allow it -- they would revolt. And we all know how messy that can be.
So, China, like the west, will be forced to "forgive" much of the debt.
By "forgive", I mean write them off, forget about them, walk away - you will never see that money again.
The OBOR strategy was idiotic from the start.
It only seemed good as long as China had money to throw around.
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The last time CO2 was at the same level as it is now, was during the Pliocene - 2.5MYA.
Not only was the CO2 at 400+ ppm, but the oceans were 70 ft deeper (some say 90).
That means that if we stop ALL CO2 emissions, right now, that the Earth will still
get warmer, the icecaps melt, and the oceans get deeper.
Humans, though, are impatient. The time to increase ocean depths is way too long.
So, we will increase CO2 to 600+ ppm, which has not been seen since the Dinosaurs,
and when the oceans were 200+ ft deeper.
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I do not think the Italian empire would survive the war. First, both the US and UK had a policy of "unconditional surrender". Second, US and UK industry would not tolerate Italy having control of the Suez Canal. Thirdly, oil was already seen as the foundation of power. Neither US or UK would allow Italy to retain control of the Middle East. Fourthly, the superiority of US and US navies would still exist, being overwhelming at the end of the war. Mussollini would need a powerful navy to hold on to his empire. He would not have it. So, in the end, Italy would end up with Libya and the Balkans, only, IMO. Italy would be saved from invasion, though, I think, depending on how much UK and US stick to unconditional surrender policy.
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What a ridiculous assertion.
If Kharkiv falls, it falls. Ukraine is much larger than Kharkiv.
In fact, even if Kyev falls, Ukraine need not fall.
War is not a game of chess.
Capturing the capitol, does not mean you win.
Russia didn't lose when Napoleon took Moscow
The US didn't lose when the British burned Washington DC.
At moment, Ukraine is doing a great job of bleeding Russia to death.
Soldiers, tanks, aircraft, trucks, helicopters, and everything else are being
lost at an incredible rate, a rate that cannot be sustained.
Russia will lose.
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Why are Dinosaurs classified as reptiles?
In fact, why are reptiles classified as reptiles??
The tuatara, turtle, lizards, and crocodiles have little to do with each other.
I understand that their DNA shows not a close relationship at all.
IMO, Pterosaurs deserve their own class. Dinosaurs are their own class.
Icthysaurs, plesiosaurs, and mosasaurs should have their own class,
OR they each should be in a class.
At the KT extinction event, I think several classes went extinct,
leaving only the mammals, birds, amphibians,
and those animals we call reptiles (a very doubtful class, IMO).
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The CSIS war game study of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan
should NOT be referenced --- it is incompetent.
I suspect it gave a pessimistic dire outcome for political reasons.
Consider --
1. It projects the US losing 4 nuclear subs. HUH???
China has ZERO ability to find, let alone sink, an American sub (unless one surfaces in Shanghai harbor.)
2. It did NOT account for Taiwan using its THOUSANDS of missiles to destroy an invasion fleet.
3. The high sea states typical for the Taiwan strait were NOT taken into account.
Even if an invasion can be started during a calm period, it won't stay that way for long.
Re-supply of any invasion force will be difficult.
4. The ability of China to knock out Taiwan's air force and missiles were greatly over-estimated.
Taiwan has their planes in underground shelters. Their missiles are in hardened emplacements, or are mobile and shift positions regularly.
IMO, if China attacks Taiwan, unless US has its fleet nearby, the US fleet will only be able to do clean-up work. Taiwan's missiles, mines, and torpedoes will destroy China's fleet leaving its PLA at the bottom of the sea, with the fishes.
If China starts an invasion on Monday, it will be destroyed be Wednesday.
Taiwan's missiles can reach China's coast, its ports, and targets well inland.
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BTW, I do not accept the common assertion that China's South China Sea grab is to ensure its trade routes. No one threatens its trade routes.
IMO, the grab of the South China Sea is an attempt to control trade in the region and to intimidate everyone who uses it. China wants to use South China Sea trade access as a means of leverage and control over Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Philippines, and Vietnam.
I think Xi and his backers dream of re-establishing China's middle kingdom relationships with its neighbors, and even the world.
This will fail of course. The world has moved on from the days when Empires dominated the world. All power comes from economic power ultimately - after all, it takes a lot of money to sustain a military. Note how economic power also creates social power. Look at how American rap has gone global. As India develops, Bollywood is a growing cultural influence. The world knows Korean K-Pop. So, power has many facets. Xi's focus on confrontation and bullying will have severe blowback, I expect.
Also, China's debt colonization of countries will also fail miserably. England took over Egypt that way. It didn't last. The world community will not allow China to put colonizing troops into Africa or India Ocean countries. Without occupying troops, nothing prevents those countries from merely defaulting on their debts to China. Remember how the US ended Britain's influence in Egypt in the 1950's by stopping its military???
What do you think will happen when China tries to enforce its domination with military force??? It will be stopped, I believe.
China is at the apex of its power, IMO. Xi's policies have started a process that will degrade China's economy and power. Once its veneer of power is stripped away, its decline will be swift.
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Greenland and Antarctica are talked about as if they were not connected. Both are melting. Greenland is melting the most, at first. But, Antarctica has 10 times as much ice, and it is just getting started.
Current levels of CO2, match the Pliocene (3.5mya), when oceans were 70 ft deeper.
That means we are already committed to 20 meters of rise --- not 1 meter.
If CO2 rises no more, and stays at 400 ppm, then we will still hit 70 ft ocean rise. That is 20 meters.
The scientists actually know this.
What I don't understand is why they pull their punches and say something stupid like, "we are committed to a 1 meter rise if CO2 levels don't rise."
I don't think that minimizing the impact is wise. People need to know.
We are not talking about beach front property, or a few atolls.
We are talking about cities, and river deltas, rice paddies, and farm land.
We are talking about land where 1 to 2 BILLION people live.
This WILL happen. We just don't know how fast - how soon. It may take 100, or 200, or 300 years. It will happen. We cannot stop it.
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Won't work.
1. Executions and reprisals did not end resistance to Nazi occupation during WW2.
In fact, it increased resistance.
2. How will Russian soldiers react?? They were told they were going to save Ukrainians from Nazis, and now they will be told to kill Ukrainians in cold blood??? How will that go over??
Russian army morale will plummet.
Russian army soldiers may desert, or even revolt over such orders.
In order to get an army to kill, they must be prepared. They must be taught that their enemy is evil, or inferior, or both.
BUT, Putin has promoted the idea that Ukrainians are the same as Russians.
Not just equal, but the same.
So, killing Ukrainians, is killing their own kind.
That will be difficult for Russian soldiers to think about or do.
Putin has not thought this through.
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It is true that carriers are vulnerable. All weapon systems, bases, and countries are vulnerable.
The question is not "can a foe sink our carriers?"...
The question is "can a foe tolerate or even survive the US response?"
For instance, say China attacks an American fleet in the SCS and sinks a carrier.
What would the US do??
I think the US would then respond swiftly, with swarms of missiles attacking and sinking China's naval ships worldwide.
China's bases in the SCS would be obliterated - not a crab or seashell left intact.
Any Chinese air force planes outside of China's air space would be shot down.
A full blockade would be put on China -- not ship, not a boat, not a raft being allowed out or in.
How long would China's economy last with that??
If China EVER attacks and sinks an American ship, it will be destroyed.
However, Xi and the CCP act as if they think everyone is weak and cowardly.
So, Xi and the CCP just might start a war somewhere, with somebody.
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You failed to account for or analyze the impact of combat support vessels and logistics.
The American carrier does NOT fight alone - it is always part of a task force, which will include a Ticonderoga cruiser, 1 or 2 Burke Destroyers, an Attack class nuclear submarine, and supporting supply and logistics ships.
Moreover, a Carrier Strike Group may be augmented with additional carriers, cruisers, and destroyers and subs to make an adequate response to ANY threat. So, if one CSG is not enough to take out the Chinese navy, then it will be expanded until it can do the task.
It will be 20 to 30 years before China has that ability.
However, I do expect it to have that ability -- someday.
But, NOT today.
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Shervan, may I suggest that you select some important videos to do regular periodic updates.
I think annual reviews of China's economy, China's military issues, Middle East, UK, EU, Russia, Ukraine, and India should all be considered. Maybe Ethiopia and Nigeria should be looked at regularly. Issues might need periodic updating -- global warming, world economy, world trade + tariffs, world military spending.
I find that you will have done a great analysis, but its several years old, and I want to know your take on developments since your analysis was done.
Thanks.
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Debate??
There will be no debate.
Republicans will first deny, then excuse, then dismiss.
That is how they handled Jan 6th attack on Capitol Hill.
First they denied it, then they excused the participants, then they dismissed it as not being very important.
How treasonous do Republican politicians have to be before Republican voters stop supporting them??
There is no limit.
Republican voters are not Americans, at least none I have ever known.
They once were patriotic, wanted to help fellow Americans, and wanted to lift this country up.
Now, Republicans want to destroy America. They wanted to kill our leaders on Jan 6th.
Making a joke of killing AOC is what they do now.
It won't be long when Democrat leaders are killed for real.
Republicans will love it.
Then they will deny, excuse, and dismiss the killing.
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BTW - when I was 22, I got very angry with women -- ALL women.
I started treating women like crap.
I used them, ignored them, stood them up, insulted them, humiliated them publicly.
Not violent, but I was emotionally cold and distant.
I used them for sex the way I used tissues to blow my nose.
Used them - threw them away.
The result???
Never had so many women after me. Gorgeous women, especially, were at my beck and call.
The worse I treated them, humiliated them, the more they wanted me.
My black book over flowed with women.
What happened??
Well after six months, my anger towards women left me.
I could no longer be the asshole I had become.
More importantly, I did not want to be with ANY of the women in my black book (yep, I actually had one then)
I threw my black book in the garbage, and didn't talk to any of those women again.
Epilogue --
I went back to looking for women I had great conversations with, who had a sense of humor like mine, who had interests, and aspirations, and an active mind. Women who were kind, generous, and tolerant of me and my issues.
I went back to being unlucky at parties and bars.
The BIG difference - I was no longer jealous of the guys who had women galore.
I did not envy them. I did not want any of those type of women.
I also learned that the majority of women are like that. They want to be treated like sh*t.
I wish it was different. But that is women in America.
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One thing Ukraine is showing is the diminishment of the significance of air power.
Missiles are MUCH more important.
1. SAM's prevent air dominance, or even air activity.
2. Anti-ship missiles will sink China's fleet. If Russia cannot stop the sinking of their flagship, what makes anyone think that China can stop the sinking of its troop ships, destroyers, frigates, etc.??
3. Taiwan makes the MOST sophisticated chips, which have been incorporated into their HF-2, HF-2e, and HF-3 missiles.
They undoubtedly have ECCM, making them very hard to stop.
Personally, I think Taiwan can defeat a Chinese invasion all by themselves, with little help from US or Japan.
US should send at least 500 Harpoon missiles, and as many LRASM's as possible.
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From inside a system, it may be difficult to see flaws - like racism.
Just as it is easier for other people to see our flaws, than for us to see them or be aware of them,
However, it has been accepted for a long time that racism in the US is endemic, ingrained, and systemic.
Even getting it reduced is difficult, let alone eliminating it.
Republicans, in general, deny racism while they practice it.
Even after a cop wantonly and needlessly killed a black man on video, Republicans defend the police in a knee-jerk response.
Republicans don't see the racism, because they want to maintain the myth that we have a perfect and "free" society.
Republicans will also defend our "free" society, as they demonize peaceful protesters.
Any call to restrain or contain the Republican violence, they deem terrorism.
Odd how they turned the word "terrorism" upside down - applying it to peaceful protesters, but not using it on white supremacists and the KKK.
Republicans are a pretty stinking bunch, if you ask me.
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Good info, but you left out a lot.... a whole lot...
1. Paper "money" is NOT money === It is currency. Money is broader, and includes deposits, IOU's, etc.
2. Modern currencies are NOT backed by bullion of any kind. So, what backs them??? YOU did NOT answer that question.
3. You needed to go further into FRACTIONAL LENDING, for that is both how money is CREATED and BACKED. The dollar is backed by ALL the outstanding loans denominated in dollars.
This is how it goes......
Say a bank has $100,000 in its vaults, and it must keep 10% reserve, so it could lend out $1,000,000
You are buying a house, for $250,000 with $50,000, and you need to borrow $200,000.
The bank lends you $200,000, AND puts the house on its books as the mortgagor.
Its assets are now $100,000 + one house valued at $250,000, while mortgagee has $200,000 -- new money that did NOT exist before the purchase and loan.
It could do this four more times, and create total of $1,000,000.
Its books would read $100,000 + 5 homes valued at $1,250,000 total, with outstanding loans of $1,000,000 to be collected. Meanwhile, 5 people would have $1,000,000 of spendable cash that did not exist before they bought and mortgaged the homes.
Now, all lending has the same affect, even unsecured loans. Although, since the only value in the transaction is the loan itself, these loans have much higher interest rates.
That is how money is both CREATED and BACKED in the US.
This is also why we can NEVER go back to bullion backed currency. If we did, money supply would crash, companies would fold, and people thrown out of work, and the government have no money to help people. Our whole economic system would stop. Millions would die.
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Look at the rhetoric of the powers before WW1 and WW2.
All sides talked of peace -- but they gave lines which the other side must not cross.
For Germany, it was the Rhineland, then Austria, then Czechoslovakia, and then Poland.
In WW1, it was the Serbian ultimatum.
Everyone felt war would not happen.
It happened.
Now, China threatens nuclear war on Japan.
China threatens it over just one soldier.
How can Japan react to that??
Ignore it?? It cannot, it is too serious.
Submit? It cannot, for historical, cultural, and political reasons.
Defy? It must. How?? Probably with nuclear weapons
Biden must NOW reassure Japan, and inform China, publicly that the US will defend Japan with our nuclear umbrella. ANY nuclear attack on China will be responded with full scale nuclear response by US.
That is our policy.
It needs to be restated.
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It is not the end. It is merely a pause. The pause may last a year, or maybe more, but eventually China will create another border incident.
China has kept the China/India border tense since 1948. Not once has China let there be true peace with India.
China always reserves the right to make claims and make threats.
India, though, is not alone. That is how China treats all its neighbors, and even other nations around the world.
China has threatened Canada, and Sweden, the UK, and the US.
This is how China is, and it will not change.
So, India must stay prepared for the next time China acts the fool.
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What I find interesting are how the reports of Russian and Ukrainian artillery/missile attacks differ.
== When a Russian attack is reported, it is residences, schools, hospitals, and other non-military targets that were hit.
== When a Ukrainian attack is reported, it is an ammo depot, command center, radar, air base, or other important military target that was hit.
The Russian attacks have no effect on the operations and power of the Ukrainian forces, while the Ukrainian attacks have a direct, and often immediate, effect on Russian military operations, power, and effectiveness.
The HIMARS attacks of the last month have derailed Russian efforts in the Donbas, and have weakened Russian forces around Kherson.
Now, it is obvious who will win this war.
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I think India will occur significant, profound, and positive changes in its foreign relations.
1. China's checkbook diplomacy has limits. And, as the bills come due, those nations that took it, will soon resent China. No country will like being colonized, subjugated, or becoming a vassal state. Those leaders that allowed it to happen will be replaced, and those countries will kick out China. China cannot prevent that, because, unlike a true colonial power, China will not be able to send in its army to impose its will.
2. Under Modi, India is building its international ties in trade, investment, and military cooperation. As India grows in each of those areas, India will develop stronger ties with regional countries, and the world. Already, India holds naval exercises that include Japan, Australia, United States, Vietnam, and Philippines.
3. I believe an alliance is forming between India, Australia, Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam that will oppose China, and ensure the freedom of trade through the SCS. This alliance should, I hope, be a full defensive alliance, so that China knows it cannot bully India, Vietnam, or any country in the region. China will just have to grow up.
4. Take Nepal, for instance, I think it is succumbing to China's checkbook -- but this is temporary, I think.
The connections between Nepal and India are too deep and ancient. Nepalese & Indians inter-marry, not with the Chinese, though. Nepalese work, travel, and visit India. Indians work, travel, and visit Nepal. This cannot be stopped. The ordinary Nepalese citizen gets nothing from China, except debts that the government takes on. I think the Nepalese will oppose this, and force Nepal back into good relations with India.
BTW, same with Bhutan.
5. I think India's economy will be booming soon. Foreign investment is coming as companies move their manufacturing and supply from China to India and SE Asia.
I think China's power has peaked. It will decrease as capital flows out of China, and as China realizes it is in a friendless world of its own creation.
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Unverified and specious attacks on Bernie will backfire more than on other candidates.
I feel this is because Bernie has suffered abusive biased attacks for DECADES. So, when Warren did her silly attack, it backfired big time, because her attack was ill-informed, specious, and mean spirited. For Warren, the mean spirit of her attack was particularly galling, since both Warren and Bernie were darlings of the Progressives.
So, Warren's attack was like fratricide. If felt heinous, not just merely mistaken.
When attacking Bernie, you better make sure your facts are right, and that you are just showing policy disagreement. If you show vitriol, it will backfire.
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For years, I have been saying that China is Russia's real threat.
The democracies of NATO hunger for peace, not war.
The NATO "threat" is in Putin's mind only. No one rationally thinks NATO will put armies in Georgia or Poland to attack Russia.
However, the battle for Asia has been going on for millennia. China being attacked from the west, and Europe being attacked from the east. The Xiongnu, Mongols, Huns, Avars, Alans, Magyars, Turks, rose out of central Asia to impact, conquer, and even take over.
Russia took much of Siberia from China as it grew eastward.
NOW -- the Global Times has said that China wants Vladivostok and other lands back, that Russia took.
PLUS -- China claims to be an Arctic power. Well, that cannot happen unless China takes Siberia and gets an Arctic shore.
Putin is weakening Russia profoundly.
HOW can Russia stop China from taking Siberia, now that it has wasted its army??
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Discussions about the EU focus on people, their prejudices, competency, etc. They never focus on or discuss the structural flaws of the EU.
These structural flaws make the EU unsustainable, IMO. These profound differences between Brussels and some of the states is one effect. Also, profound differences between countries is another. Here are the structural flaws, as I see them...
1. There is no direct election by European citizens of Brussels administrators, or the President of the EU. So, who do these people owe allegiance? They will owe their allegiance to the banks and large companies in Europe - mostly in Germany and France.
2. With no central fiscal policy, the member states cannot properly respond to fiscal stresses. The austerity programs demanded by the banks has imposed all kinds of misery and pain in member states.
3. The EU is losing support, as people see the problems with its structure.
Can the EU be saved???
Yes, IF the EU has a European Congress, write a new constitution, and subordinate the individual countries to a new European nation.
BUT, nationalism in Europe won't allow that to happen. So, Europe will shatter into its separate states, and Europe will cease to be able to act as a world power.
The large countries of the world will rise to be the world powers in the future -- US, China, India, Brazil, Indonesia are the likely candidates for the future world powers. Russia is declining, and that cannot be stopped. Russia is the new sick man of Europe, IMO.
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I think you left out a critical aspect -- reliability. A tank that cannot fight is a BIG problem.
The Sherman had a great reputation for reliability. Panzers, in general, did not, I believe.
There must be some stats available -- average miles before breakdown
Miles between needed major repair/overhaul, average time for field repair, etc.
For instance, the interleaved road wheels of some Panzers made working on the suspension and tracks very time consuming, and difficult in the field, I believe.
Reliability is an important battle factor in itself, just as is quantity built and field availability.
For instance, according to Nick Moran, whenever a tanker got his tank destroyed, he and crew would just go get another tank.
I don't think the Germans had that luxury.
Overall, I like your analysis. Although your pronunciation is a bit Germanic for some reason.
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Seems to me that China's parochialism is its greatest weakness.
China's traditional insularity has left it with a deep ignorance of the world.
China's rulers and bureaucracy have no idea how people in other countries think, or what they value.
China thinks of itself as the Middle Kingdom, and thinks other countries see it that way.
Of course, we don't. But, China seems genuinely surprised when countries defy it, or don't recognize its claims.
I don't think Xi and the CCP started out to make everyone hate them, and to make enemies of all its neighbors.
Why does China think that it could threaten one day, and then give nice syrupy words the next day, and think that everything will be wonderful after that??? And then, China seems surprised when countries don't immediately fall in line, and fall in love with them.
It is very bizarre.
If a person acted like that, he would be labelled sociopathic or schizophrenic.
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China wants to make nations debt slaves to China. Nice try, but it won't work.
Britain was able to make Egypt a debt slave in the 19th Century, and Britain sent its troops in to enforce their claim.
The problem that China faces is that once these countries figure out that they have been had, they will hate their position.
Fortunately, they all have the simple remedy of simply - NOT PAYING CHINA. They could just cancel their debt, unilaterally.
What could China do??
For instance, lets say Sri Lanka decided not to pay its debt to China. Could China send troops to Sri Lanka to force Sri Lanka to honor its debt??? I don't think so. It would mean war with India, US, and several other countries. India will not allow China to invade and conquer any of the small nations in its area - like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, or Myanmar.
Since CHina has replaced Pakistan as the primary threat to India, I can even see India supporting Pakistan in the case of a Chinese invasion of Pakistan. (Wouldn't that be special??)
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A number of countries would be disturbed by the idea of Germany becoming an energy vassal to Russia.
The US? Yep, that's one.
But there are more -- Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Sweden, and Finland would all fell nervous if Germany allied with Russia, or became its lackey.
Each one had the means and the opportunity to sabotage the pipelines.
If I had to make a bet as to which one -- my money would be on Poland.
First, Poland is extremely concerned about Russia & Putin.
Second, Poland is scornful of Germany's policy of letting its military rot. Currently, Poland has a better military than Germany. Germany becoming subordinate to Russia is a real concern.
Third, Poland is NOT playing around, and will stop at nothing to prevent Russia from dominating the region again. If German have to have a cold winter, that is just too damn bad.
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Disagree.
Economic advancement of a country, IMO, requires other countries allowing, enabling, and even welcoming it.
The Soviet Union abhorred the world trade system set up by US, UK, and Europe after WW2.
The Soviet Union could have participated and prospered.
But, they interpreted it as a mercantilistic arrangement, like the colonial trade systems of the 1700's and 1800's. So, they opted out.
China, under Ping, opted in. China advanced, grew, and became wealthy.
Under Xi, China is now attacking the world trade system, and attempting to build a mercantilistic type economic empire.
That won't work. Mercantilism is no longer sustainable.
But, there is a reaction by the world.
India, US, Japan, and others are reducing their trade and involvement in China's economy.
China is attempting influence and control its neighbors, Pakistan and Turkmenistan in particular.
But, those are nations, not colonies. China's control is limited, and temporary.
A change in leadership could enable a profound change, just as an election in Malaysia enabled a sharp anti-China change.
Regarding China, I agree mostly with Peter Zeihan's analysis. Not entirely, but mostly.
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I think Xi will help Putin, but not for the reasons you say.
I think China has long term ambitions to take Russia's Siberia.
They want Vladivostok, Kamchatka, Irkutsk, Yakutsk, Lake Baikal, and the Ob River.
China has stated it is an Arctic power.
How can China be an Arctic power, if it is not in the Arctic???
China is greatly benefitted by Putin's war.
Russia is being used up.
It's military is exposed for being unprepared, unmaintained, untrained, and poorly led.
Ukraine barely has a functioning military.
Ukraine is mostly a large, well motivated, civilian militia.
Regular militaries normally sweep militias away.
At the end, China will be the master, and Russia the servant.
China will own Russia. China will likely control Russia.
Russia has made its decision to turn away from the Europe and the west.
[Which is ironic, considering how Putin admires Peter the Great,
the Czar that tried hard to make Russia part of Europe.]
Now, Putin will be responsible for making Russia a satellite of China.
This would be funny if not so tragic.
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Decline of men pursuing college degrees is right and rational, IMO.
The Industrial Revolution brought the automation and cheapening of human labor.
So, men went to college to pursue white collar jobs --- which paid better.
NOW -- white collar jobs are being automated, and they are being surpassed by skilled labor jobs.
IF you are a 19 yo male, what should you do for a life job?
Job requiring college degree??
Yes -- if you become engineer, doctor, or lawyer. Always good.
Anything else, forget it.
Better non-college choices ---
Welder
Electrician,
Plumber,
Any specialized construction - like oil rig worker, etc.
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The Iroquois should be noted for ---
1. The Iroquois Confederacy was the model for Benjamin Franklin's proposal at the 1756 Albany Indian Congress that the American Colonies unite as a confederation, and have their own parliament.
It was the first time (I believe) that the American colonies should unite.
2. The eternal flame burned in the center of the Great Long House in Onandaga.
I believe it was 1778, when the tribes had a long debate on whether to support America, the British, or remain neutral. The Mohawk supported the colonies (as I remember it).
The western tribes supported the British. I believe the Onondaga were neutral (but not too sure).
After days of wrangling, and no progress. An old minor chief, who had been quiet, but listening the whole time, got up, walked over to the eternal flame, and in his bare feet,
proceeded to stamp out the Eternal Flame of the Iroquois.
The Eternal Flame was to stay lit for as long as the Iroquois stayed united.
He stamped out the flame. The congress was silent. Slowly, one by one, they proceeded to stand, and walk out of the Long House.
The congress was ended, and the Iroquois Confederacy was no more. Their unity and power shattered.
I like to think that with the foundation of the United States, with its new Constitution, we picked up the mantle of federated government, with respect and equal rights for all, and discourse and compromise as the source of our unity and strength -- as it was for the Iroquois.
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The QUAD is a nice start. BUT, the QUAD is NOT a military alliance.
A NATO-like military alliance is needed -- an Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization, modeled on NATO.
Moreover, members should include Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and other ASEAN countries. The broader the membership, the stronger will be the alliance.
NATO is strong, not merely because it has the US, UK, France and Germany, but also because it has Canada, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Greece, etc. The breadth of the alliance is what truly makes NATO strong.
A new IPTO should also be as broad as possible.
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Laws do NOT apply to Lord Donald.
Lord Donald is no normal man (boy, you can say that again).
He is a Deity, who has come amongst us, to lead us out of darkness
(or, is it into darkness?? It is confusing! We are mere mortals, unable to understand these things.)
Do not worry about Sea Level Rise.
Lord Donald will wave his mighty (though small) hand, and the seas will be pushed back.
True believers will be protected. A true believing Republican will be protected, while his blaspheming Democratic neighbor will be submerged under the rising sea. Thus, will the Democrats be scourged.
(Now, if the Republican also suffers from rising seas, then, he is a heretic, a doubter, who does not fully believe in the divinity, power, and wisdom and The Mighty Lord Donald.)
BOW DOWN AND TREMBLE, LEST YOU FEEL HIS MIGHTY WRATH.
SO sayeth, the Lord Donald.
All Hail, Lord Donald.
Hail Donald....Hail Donald....Hail Donald.
PS...This is satire, meant to ridicule. If you took it seriously, you have serious problems.
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Again, the South China Sea dispute is wrongly described.
1. China claims SOVEREIGNTY over the SCS. That means it wants to treat the SCS just like an internal waterway. It wants to treat the SCS just like other countries treat their territorial waters out to 25 miles.
2. All the other countries claims are ONLY for their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) usage.
EEZ rights are defined by the UN. EEZ rights go out to 200 miles. EEZ areas are still the high seas.
Ships can traverse them at will. Cargo ships, private boats, and naval warships can traverse them at will.
International laws apply, not the laws of the EEZ owning country.
EEZ only refers to a country's ability to profit from that ocean area.
That is why Russia can put its ships 26 miles off the coast of the US, and we cannot do a thing about it.
3. IF China gets Sovereignty over the SCS it can control, regulate, or even stop other nations using it for maritime trade.
That would give China control over the maritime trade of Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Philippines, and Taiwan.
Even Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, India, Japan and other nations would be affected.
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I think the entire leadership team of Disney should go.
The mob mentality that produced the "Woke" agenda was insane.
Once Disney's focus was to entertain, pure and simple.
When films were judged, it was on how well they entertained.
Disney films were criticized for not having a social conscience, however.
Disney's problems, IMO, began when they internalized that "criticism", and put social consciousness ahead of entertaining.
For me, it culminated in She-Hulk - the whiny, obnoxious, insulting, self-absorbed bitch that was supposed to be a hero, but instead was a bully who beat up people she didn't like.
Can Disney find its way back?
That story has me in complete suspense.
I cannot tell if it will have a happy or tragic ending.
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Great video. However, I think China will fail. There governmental structure will prevent this.
The nations China is trying to catch do not threaten their neighbors militarily. Also, China's effort is too centrally driven and controlled.
The biggest problem is their government. Being run by the Chinese Communist Party, their is no organized trustworthy succession of power. As inefficient as democracies can be, they have a peaceful transfer of leadership. Not having this, China will likely undergo periods of profound internal turmoil from time to time.
Xi's military ambitions will likely become permanent, just as Putin has resurrected Russia's military ambitions. This attitude creates their border tension policies, with crises in SCS, Japan's islands, Indian border, Taiwan, Vietnam, etc. The continuing SCS incidents with Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, and others will poison China's trade in the region.
If you notice, UK, US, Germany, and other western nations take great pains now to have peace locally. Only the Middle East absorbs their military attention, and that is because of the strategic value of oil.
{This value is decreasing. As the world moves to renewable energy, the Middle East will lose its importance.}
SO, I think it will fail.
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Your analysis of China's motives for the South China Sea is wrong. Seriously wrong.
1. Trade is ensured by peace. China has not been restricted in its trade thru the SCS or anywhere.
2. To whom does the SCS trade go to??? Well, US and EU mainly. In case of war, these countries would stop imports from China by policy. A naval blockade would not be necessary.
3. Another argument made for SCS control is access to resources, like oil, which are there. However, oil is freely available on the open market, and could even be gotten from Russia if needed.
So, what is the real reason for China's need to control the SCS???
First, China does not want mere control over the SCS --- China wants to make it sovereign territory??
Why?? Simple, so China can control who uses it, and all trade of OTHER countries that use.
IF China made the SCS sovereign territory, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Japan, Taiwan, and SK would have their trade controlled by China. This would make ALL those countries client states to China.
This is not merely an attempt for China to gain "security".
This is an attempt for China to achieve TOTAL REGIONAL HEGEMONY.
Japan knows it. India knows. Vietnam knows it. That is why all three partake in naval exercises each year. US is often included. (Yes, US and Vietnam in joint naval exercises -- imagine that!!)
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As a former Warren supporter, who now supports Sanders, I think the main reason Warren lost support was when she made incompetent attacks on Sanders.
Understand, it was not the attack, per se, that was the issue for me --- it was its incompetence.
1. Warren's first attack was petty, and just not credible. Sanders video of him telling little girls 30 years ago to run for president proved that. When you make an attack, two things are needed ===
.......A. Significance - it has to be about something important....not petty...or you just look stupid.
.......B. Credibility - the criticism must stand up to scrutiny. Only Trump gets away with lies and stupidity, don't expect the same forgiveness from the media or electorate that Trump gets.
Warren's stupid attacks proved to me that she is not ready for prime time. She would be torn apart by Trump, like an eagle eating a fish.
Now, I still like Warren a lot. In fact, with Bernie as President, we will need a strong Progressive to lead the Senate. I think that would be a good role for Elizabeth Warren.
In fact, one thing I fear is a Sanders/Warren ticket -- for that would remove the TWO leading Progressives from the Senate. I don't think that would be good.
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Wahhabism holds that other Suni are heretics.
So, there are really THREE branches of Islam,
Shia, Suni, and Wahhabi.
Wahhabi is the branch that rules Saudi Arabia.
Wahhabism is the religion of Al Qaida, ISIS,
Taliban, Al Shabbab, and most Islamic terror groups
They rose from the Islamic madras schools financed by Saudi money throughout the Muslim world.
All the terror groups from Pakistan to Nigeria, from Ethiopia to Syria, got their start
in the Saudi financed madrasas.
Is Saudi Arabia really our friend???
IMO, no.
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@tamjidislam5558 Technically, you are right. Wahabbism does claim to be Suni.
However, it is so strict, that it condemns all Suni who do not accept Wahabbism as heretics, and says they should be killed.
Wahabbism is less tolerant of Non-Wahabbi Suni, than it is of all others.
Because of this obvious division between Wahabbi Suni, and non-Wahabbi Suni,
I identify Islam as being divided into
Wahabbi, Suni, and Shia.
For instance, Wahabbis desecrated the tombs in the Garden of The Prophets. Regular Sunis opposed this, stating it was blasphemy. But, the Wahabbists persisted, removing any imagery on the tombs, though they were put there by the earliest Muslims, who knew Muhammed personally.
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Interesting how India celebrates every problem US has, and never celebrates our successes.
The fact we both oppose China makes no difference.
Meanwhile, India loves Russia, and excuses their killing of tens of thousands of Ukrainians.
India excuses Russia's genocide, rape, and torture.
Oh, in response to this, Indians will deny Russia is doing anything wrong in Ukraine.
In fact, they will blame Ukraine for getting the way of Russian artillery.
Why should US participate with India in the Quad?
India will never help others.
India will not, cannot, be an ally.
So, why should we try??
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We have no choice. We must de-couple almost completely from China.
1. Recognize Taiwan - re-occupy the bases we left in 1979.
2. Ban Chinese companies from our capital markets. Assume ALL Chinese companies are controlled by the CCP.
3. Assume all products made in China use forced labor, since their labelling and reporting will never reveal that if they can help it.
So, we have to assume that all products, INCLUDING APPLE & TESLA products use forced labor.
ALL products from China should be banned after a two year grace period.
4. Consider their usage of social media to influence our elections as an ACT OF WAR.
5. Create a Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization of all nations in the region that want to contain China, and prevent its military domination.
ANY country that allows Chinese military bases, should be considered part of China's orbit, and treated as such.
(Similar to how the Iron Curtain countries of eastern Europe were treated when we were face with the Soviet Bloc. )
6. Travel to China should be discouraged, and the flights to/from China should be limited. No China airline flight should be allowed to overfly the US. So, only the cities of Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles should be allowed to receive flights from China.
7. Visas for Chinese visiting from China should be restricted.
Lastly, we should IMMEDIATELY approve selling F-35 jets to Taiwan, along with Patriot and THAAD defense systems.
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I think another factor is at play -- factional rivalry.
In WW2, Japan's Navy & Army hated each other, and did not work well together. It they had, Pearl and Midway may have ended differently.
In China, we see a country that has grown wealthy by exports to the great consuming nations of US, Canada, and Europe.
Obviously, the business & money faction do not control China.
When China committed the Doklam plateau and Galwan valley incidents, threatening war with India ---
how was that going to benefit China's economy.
India was a large and fast growing market.
Pissing on that market was extraordinarily stupid.
So, why did China do it??
IMO, "China" didn't do it, but a faction within China that controls the military did it.
And, this faction did not care about the impact on trade & finance.
In fact, maybe a decline in trade & finance would weaken another faction,
thus making the military more important in the internal pecking order.
I don't know if this is the case. But, it does smell like it.
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Interesting question -"why do you call yourself 'white'"?
I grew up in Chicago. People called themselves - Polish, Italian, Greek, Swedish, Norwegian, Chinese, Mexican, and Irish.
I was Irish. I did not see myself as "white".
I learned to see people in terms of their ancestral nationality.
So, today, I have a hard time seeing people as "Asian" or "African", just as I don't see myself as European or white.
When talking to an Asian, I get whether they are Japanese, Chinese, Indian, etc. They are all different.
What is also interesting, is that when I did learn racial identities here, I learned black and white.
So, Mexicans were white, as were Indians. In fact, since they are part of an Indo-European grouping, I saw them as white.
Then I learned of the "brown" designation by the British in South Africa, where they classified Indians as "brown".
I found that odd.
Ultimately, I learned in biology that the species Homo-Sapiens has no sub-category.
That is, races do NOT exist scientifically.
Races are a political construct to divide and subjugate.
I think the biggest problem "black" people have is that they buy into the idea that races exist,
and that they are "black". They are not black, and I am not white.
We are all Homo-Sapiens.
We are all the same.
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This war will not last long.
Russia does not have the money to fight a long war,
especially one that chews up men & material as fast as Russia is losing them.
WW1 ended when Germany ran out of resources, not because it was defeated in battle.
Ukraine can fight forever with the support it gets from US, EU, and UK.
Russia, though, cannot. No one resupplies Russian arms lost in battle.
No one is giving Russia medicines, clothing, body armor, or helmets.
This war is a bigger burden on Russia than on Ukraine.
Whether this war lasts 10 weeks or 10 years, Russia will lose.
The unknown is when will Russia decide to stop the war???
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This is great.
The ONLY way to stop the process of Global Warming is to do CO2 removal.
First, you MUST understand how bad the problem IS.
1. 3.5 mya in the Pliocene, CO2 levels were 390ppm, AND oceans were 75 feet deeper.
SO, if we STOP increasing CO2 levels and KEEP them at current levels,
we will still get oceans 75 ft deeper. It will just take longer, but it will get there.
2. CO2 is now rising at about 2 ppm per year.
So, CO2 will be at 500 ppm by about 2060.
That will make global warming go higher faster.
We need this now.
But, the political will is not there yet, and will take years to develop.
It will happen when capitalists finally realize that today's world,
their source of wealth, will disappear if they don't let us stop it.
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According to Norma Goodrich (if my memory serves me)...
Camelot was NOT a place.
It came from Cair Maillot, or Fort Hammer, or Fort of The Hammer.
She maintained that King Arthur was The Hammer, and
Cari Maillot (Camelot) existed wherever he held court.
KIings in that era, were often mobile, holding court in varous places in their realm.
Therefore, according to her, to seek Camelot is a fool's errand,
since it did not exist as a place.
Camelot was Arthur's court, therefor it symbolized him and his realm.
Now, I don't remember how she squared Ex Calibur with him being The Hammer.
I believe Ex Calibur was a ceremonial sword also representing his power of kingship.
If he was "The Hammer" wouldn't his symbol of office be a war hammer of some kind?
On the other other hand (lots of hands), he could have had multiple symbols of power.
After all, modern English royalty have a crown, a scepter, and an orb. Right?
Plus, their robes and other schtick.
And, don't they have ceremonial sword they use to Knight honorable dudes??
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My understanding is that Philippines has huge barriers to foreign investment, similar to the laws in India that have prevented it from growing. Like India, Philippines was a colony, and was very hesitant to let foreign capital in. They want to own their own country, and their own businesses.
So, a business has to be 50+% owned domestically. A foreigner, or foreign company cannot own or control a company that it is investing in. Well, that won't fly. No capital comes. No growth.
Today, many Filipinos, like Duterte, express hate for the USA.
I have no idea what we have done since the 1930's to harm Philippines, but it doesn't matter.
They still hate us.
Maybe we should just leave them to face China on their own.
They don't like us, and right now, I don't like them very much either.
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Love it.
I suggest one on PRINTING. Printing is underestimated in its impact.
For instance, the Basque knew about the New World, and went there every year for cod fish for about 500 years before Columbus arrived. (See the book, "Cod", good read). HOWEVER, no one else learned about it because captains and merchants would never give away trade secrets. SO, any discoveries were kept hidden.
Then comes printing, now one could become rich writing and publishing. Take Amerigo Vespucci. He never traveled anywhere He published maps. And so, our continents are named after a couch potato, not an intrepid explorer like Columbus. Columbus's discoveries would have been kept secret if not for publishing.
Also, look at how Martin Luther caught fire (figuratively). That was also due to printing. The Renaissance and The Enlightenment could not have happened without printing and publishing.
I think this deserves a whole series.
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Biden has been elected.
But, the pro-Trump Murdoch media prevalent in the far east, has given everyone the wrong impression of Biden and Democrats.
1. American foreign policy is not whimsical, or severely affected by changes in administrations and Congresses. Note the 40 year consistency of our Cold War policy, defined by George Kennan in 1949.
2. America's turn away from the policy of accommodation with China started under Obama. The policy of accommodation started under Reagan, and continued until its recent change. The accelerated change under Trump would have happened without Trump, IMO.
More importantly, it will continue with Biden.
3. Murdoch media has convinced many in US and the world that the Democrats and liberals are soft on foreign policy.
Nothing is further from the truth.
3.a Republicans have traditionally been isolationists. Democrat presidents lead the US in WW1, WW2, Korean War, and Vietnam. Only the Gulf War was lead by a Republican president, and that was more like a training exercise.
3. b. Progressives are committed to America taking leading role in creating a more civilized world. Progressive thinking gave Europe the Marshall Plan. Progressive thinking gave the world the UN and NATO. It was Progressive thinking that lead to the rebuilding of Germany and Japan after WW2.
3. c If is still Progressive thinking that keeps our troops in South Korea to defend against North Korean aggression.
Biden will not change the new policy on China -- the Democratic Progressives in Congress won't let him, if he tries.
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How I interpret the actions of Xi & the CCP ---
The rise of China in the last 40 years had created a new class of wealthy business leaders, and millions of high value well paid workers. These people were going to want what comes with success - freedom to travel, freedom to read what they want, to say what they want, and other freedoms.
The CCP could not have that.
SO, they are using COVID to destroy the business class. Industries moving out of China, and its economy shrinking -- is all OK, as long as they keep their power.
HOWEVER, the CCP has shown, many times, that it cannot think ONE move ahead.
With the loss of industrial companies, and the export market they satisfied, the CCP will have much less money to build the navy, army, and air forces it wants to intimidate its neighbors, and become the hegemon of the region.
The threat of China becoming a hegemon will soon fade away.
In the 60's and 70's, the world was adjusted to an isolationist China. The world economy hummed along, not giving a damn about China. Then China opened up. Now we all care.
As China reverts back to its old isolationist form, there will be discomfort and dislocation as the process unfolds.
In the end, we will be back to the 60's and 70's, we won't care about how China operates ---
--- it will be isolated.
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Let us talk about Global Anoxic Events -- which occur when the global ocean conveyor current shuts down. That's right! It shuts down - and that would include the Gulf Stream.
The Gulf Stream also brings oxygen to the depths. As it approaches the Arctic, it cools and also has become saltier, therefore denser. It then falls down into the depths in the largest waterfall on Earth.
The last GAE was during the PETM, about 55mya.
During the Mesozoic, there were many GAE's.
During a GAE, the ocean becomes anoxic below about 25 ft. Above that, and the ocean is oxygenated by wave action.
Now, when sea creatures die, and fall to the bottom of an anoxic ocean, they decay, and over time they form oil deposits. That is why so much oil is found on continental shelves.
It is also how the oil companies KNOW there is oil on continental shelf before they drill one test well. That is how they know oil is under the South China Sea, or in the Mediterranean.
Now, when does that happen? When the Earth has high CO2 levels, the poles warm, and the temperature differential between the equator and the poles goes away. The climate cells disappear. The Jet Streams slow, and then disappear.
The forces driving the global conveyor weaken, and it virtually stops.
The idea that the Gulf Stream cannot stop, and is permanent, is not borne out by paleoclimate study, IMO. GAE's prove it, IMO.
That is how I understand it. IF a paleoclimalogist has a deeper or better understanding, please correct what I just said. If I am wrong, I would love to improve my understanding.
Thank you.
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You referenced CSIS. I wouldn't do that.
IMO, they are incompetent.
In a recent analysis of war games, they claimed that if China invaded Taiwan, US and its allies would lose. In this "loss", the US would lose 4 subs (?!?)
WTF -- China cannot find any of our subs, let alone sink any of them.
IMO, the CSIS report was a classic case of fear mongering, probably to induce greater defense spending.
This was done A LOT during the Cold War ---- The Missile Gap, The Bomber Gap, The Tank Gap, etc etc.
IMO, China has ZERO chance of performing a successful invasion of Taiwan --- even if Taiwan gets ZERO aid from the US.
To change my mind --- someone has to explain HOW a Chinese invasion fleet would survive the 1000+ anti-ship missiles that Taiwan has. So far, I have not seen ANY strategy analysis that even addressed this issue. They all seem to assume that Taiwan is just going to sit there and not fight.
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I don't believe it, since Iran has been an enemy of Saudi Arabia and Sunni Islam for CENTURIES.
But, hey, the Middle East is complex, and a bit goofy, so maybe.
As an American, I have no problem with the US leaving its base in Bahrain, and bowing out of Middle East affairs. Leave them to themselves to sort out their issues among themselves.
What has American gotten out of the Billion$ we have spent there?
We don't use or need their oil.
Mostly, they don't like us. Even when we support them, they don't like us.
It seems the cultural gap is too wide.
They don't like or want democracy. They don't like or want western ideas or education.
They definitely don't want a western style secular democratic government.
So, I actually agree with the Iranians on this point --- the US should leave the Persian Gulf, and the entire Middle East.
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Will the Saudis survive??
When significant change is attempted, usually it is too late, and the forces unleashed result in the end of the regime.
Tsarist Russia, for instance, tried to change, to enter the modern world
Serfdom was officially ended. But, in the end, Tsarism fell. Tsarism could not adjust fast enough, or solve the problems of its people.
Same with Imperial China.
Do the Saudis even understand the forces that are growing in Arabia??
Do they know that hunger for democracy is growing?
Do they know that hunger for rule of law, an independent judiciary, and equality of women is growing??
I doubt it. But, even if they do, will the Saudis do what is needed?
NO -- Because the Saudi family wants to hold onto power.
They will never allow a democratic society and government to be established.
Or, more accurately, --- only over their dead bodies.
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The world trade order after WW2 was built and ensured by US and western Europe.
The coming world trade order will be ensured by US, India, Western Europe, and Japan.
Many minor powers, like Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Canada, Mexico, and others will follow their lead.
Any country trying to upset that world order will find themselves isolated, and expelled from world trade (if they persist).
The new world order will look like the Bretton Woods world of the 70 years, only the countries actively supporting it militarily will be slightly different.
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Patrick Boyle is great. I love his analysis.
His economic analysis is spot on, IMO.
Hos only deficiency is that he does not talk about
social organization, how people are treated, the role of law/contracts/courts
and other aspects of China's structure.
Economists analyze economies and countries through the same lens.
They assume countries are similar -- which they are, if you are looking at the mature western countries. Usually, countries on the rise imitate the advanced countries - so you can analyze them as modern countries.
China is different. For instance, its usage of real estate development to finance local government is insane. It creates a Ponzi scheme.
This was apparent 20 or 30 years ago. But, this factor was ignored.
Yet, everyone knows how Ponzi schemes end.
Another issue is "internal migration" in China. People who move from one part of China to another are treated as immigrants -- not like citizens of China. They don't get health & education services.
The injustices in China create misery, and hide the poverty that exists.
China is collapsing because of these broader issues, not because they built too many roads and bridges.
Unfortunately, I doubt Pat Boyle is equipped to analyze these other factors determining China's success.
I suggest looking at Leis Real Talk, and Laowhy86 channels.
They give great insights into how China really functions.
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In sales, it is important to close a deal.
If you assume it yours, before it is closed, and let it sit, you will likely lose the deal.
Why?
Simple, the clients situation will always change over time.
Priorities may change.
They may lose the money for the deal.
The decision maker may change. Etc. Etc. Etc.
For this deal, the customer's situation changed.
Australia needed nuclear subs,, not merely subs with AIP.
They had a chance to get nuclear subs from the countries with the best.
So, they did it.
Macron's bitching is juvenile, and pathetic.
Grow up.
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This war has forged Ukraine. If it didn't have national identity before, it has it now.
Before the war, I was under the impression that many people in Ukraine identified as Russian, and longed to be united with Russia.
If that was the case then, it is NOT the case now. Russia's terror and oppression killed and brutalized even those who were pro-Russian at the start.
Any warm feelings that Ukrainians had for Russia are gone.
After the war, it will be generations before Ukrainians feel good about Russia and Russians again.
Before the war, Ukraine was willing to be non-aligned. Not with NATO, and not with Russia, but somewhere in the middle.
Not anymore. Ukraine is now aligned with the US, NATO, and the west. It will be aligned economically, politically, and culturally with the west.
Russia will be isolated.
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Creepy teachers have been around for a long time.
When I was a freshman in high school, about 1964,
had a General Science teacher that was, let us say, different.
Girls knew that to get good grade, all they needed to do was hike their skirts high up while sitting at their desks.
For some reason, one well developed girl came in the class with a name tag over her left breast.
The teacher politely asked her, "What's the name of the other one??"
Lot of us guys heard that. We expressed shock and horror.
Later, after class, when the girls weren't around, we all cracked up,
thinking it was really funny.
He was still creepy, though.
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This illustrates major but unseen problems with the Russian Navy.
The fires indicates - poor design, poor build, poor training, poor maintenance -- or any combination of them.
The economy of Russia does not seem to be big enough to support what Putin is doing -- new tanks, new ships, new planes, foreign intervention in Ukraine & Syria.
Russia might be able to do some of them,
but, I contend that Russia cannot do all of them.
Is Putin cutting corners on maintenance, or training??
I suspect so. Both require money that Russia is short of.
Moreover, maintenance & training are not sexy, and cannot be used in propaganda.
With the oil wars reducing oil revenue to Russia, I am sure this problem will only get worse.
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Oil supply will NEVER be a constraint on oil production.
There is too much oil reserves on continental shelves around the world,
that have not been tapped, yet.
Oil production will peak, when demand falls.
Each year, electric cars are becoming more common.
Same with trucks.
In 30 years, many predict that the world's energy will be mostly from renewables.
What videos like these do NOT address are the geopolitical impacts.
The US & Europe have guaranteed the Saudi government.
The ME had the attention of the world.
When oil becomes unimportant, so too, will the ME become unimportant.
The Saudi family will be on their own,, as will all the nations there.
People of the ME have complained about the US and Europe intruding on them.
Well, I wonder how they will like it, when the ME is ignored by the world??
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@titaniumskunkogkush4365 Oh, and a few other like minded nations --
India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa, Chile, Ecuador, New Zealand, Australia, Palau, Brazil, and a few others.
Nobody likes bullies. China is a bully.
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@mna7308 Nah. We like to see other countries grow. They become better customers. That is why all our friends become wealthy -- Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Germany, UK, Ireland, France, Poland, Australia, New Zealand, and soon a new friend of ours will become wealthy --- Ukraine.
It will take a few years, but it will start as soon as Russia is defeated.
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That was fun.
I have a theory about French.
I have noticed that in French writing, the words have many more letters and even syllables that go entirely unsaid.
It seems that the original speech was slurred so much that parts of words were dropped, and some words joined together.
Now, when do people slur their words????
When they are DRUNK, of course.
Now, who has the tradition of wine, brandy, and cordial production??
The French, of course.
So, my theory is that the French were drunk so often, that they created this slurred latin language.
What do you think???
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@lonewolf7992 Don't bet on it.
1. Russia & China/Mongolia have been vying for control of central Asia for 1,000 years.
2. The CCP mouthpiece, Global Times, had an article last year, claiming Siberian territory as belonging to China, including Vladivostok.
3. China is very resource hungry, and Siberia is filled with natural resources.
4. There have been border clashes between Russia & China in the past -- in the 1970's during the "Sino-Soviet Split".
Russia & China are natural rivals and enemies. Their cooperation after WW2 was more an accident of history, than a long term relationship based on common interests.
And, now Russia is gutting itself. Its planes, tanks, and equipment are being destroyed. After the Ukraine war, Russia will be weak, friendless, and defenseless.
How can China resist?? Can a Hyena resist a fat corpse??
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@Justin-yc1ig About money?? Yes. And in the Confederacy, slaves were money. So, being scared that the Northern states were going to end slavery scared.
Ending slavery and the slave trade was happening. England ended slavery in early 1800's in its colonies, and made maritime slave trade illegal, imposing it on other countries, too
In fact, in the book, "Slave Nation", an argument is made that the Revolutionary War was done to enable slavery to survive here in America.
In 1763, a slave named Somerset was freed in England. The slave owners in the colonies feared that might impact them, so they engineered the American Revolution in 1776.
Its an interesting idea, and it is well backed up.
I recommend the book to you.
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Failed coup? That explains why Xi and the CCP have been destroying China's companies.
Now the self destructive behavior can be understood.
Still stupid, though.
They could have merely taken over the companies, rather than destroying them.
They could have ousted the anti-Xi people, and put their own in.
Destroying them, destroys China's economy.
Also, I am not sure how the wolf warrior diplomacy is tied in. How does pissing off countries around the world benefit Xi, or China?? Twenty years ago, people didn't feel threatened so countries were lowering military spending. They could not justify high levels of spending.
Now, though, people are scared of China, so countries around the world have NO PROBLEM increasing military spending.
Look at the list -- US, Canada, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Philippines. That is virtually all their neighbors.
The Ukraine War has put US and NATO on a near-war footing. Training and preparedness for war is being done in earnest. The idea that war might be necessary has now been accepted by the people of many nations. China won't be able to get away with much of anything anymore.
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This new effort can be easily interpreted as an effort to create self-sufficiency. Communism started with that idea. The USSR tried it. Cuba tried it. It does not work.
Modern economies require peace. Look at how oil prices and stock markets react to even the threat of conflict.
Yet, Xi keeps kicking the apple cart, even overtly threatening war against India, Japan, and Vietnam.
The economies of SE Asia are developing during an era of Chinese threats and intimidation. This will prevent those nations from linking their economies too closely with China. As such, China will lack the foundation of being locally dominant in trade.
I think you will see India grow to be in that position. India does not throw its weight around. It does no bully.
The de facto military alliance between India, Japan, Taiwan, SK, Indonesia, and (eventually) the Philippines will create an economic bloc as well. These nations will improve their trade relations to mirror their military relations.
The US, UK, and EU will support and participate with this bloc economically and militarily, too.
The joint naval exercises of the recent years between these nations point to this development.
Bottom line -- China is in deep trouble if it continues with its present policies and attitudes.
I do not expect them to change. And, Xi is an idiot.
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Sabato does not seem to be taking the cancelling of Roe V Wade by the Supreme Court into account.
That is the major reason for the big change in polls in the last 2 months.
News to Sabato, there is nothing going to happen before the election that will rival that.
The Republicans will NOT recover to win the Senate.
In fact, current polls give 55 seats to the Democrats -- taking GA, PA, WI, FL, NC, AZ, and NV.
The Republicans will likely take the House because mid-term elections favor the GOP.
HOWEVER, if Roe V Wade brings democrat voters out, there may be a surprise.
At any rate, I think the GOP majority in the new House will be smaller than they expected.
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@premodernist_history Oh yes. May I recommend a book on the Aurora newspaper. It is a compilation of articles from that AMAZING newspapers. Several future presidents worked for it - John Q Adams, Monroe, and Madison, if I remember right.
But, that era was crazy. Politicians were being accused of being traitors all the time (sound familiar?) Of being pro-British, or Pro-French.
Actually, following American history and the press from the beginning, I feel that the post WW2 era, where newspapers were expected to be "objective", and academic in their approach, that that was really has been a unique time in our newspaper history.
For most of our history, newspapers were HIGHLY partisan. Their rhetoric was biased, partisan, and often inflammatory.
So, the current state of our press is really a return to the old normal.
The key word is "normal". If I am right, then the current state of the press in America will continue.
Isn't that a nice thought???
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Putin is a real idiot.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, it looked like Russia was going to become a normal state, focused on trade and economic development.
The NATO countries relaxed, and reduced military spending.
NATO was on the path towards irrelevance.
If Putin had just relaxed, and waited patiently, NATO might have fallen apart.
The US was getting tired of lifting the military burden alone.
In time, NATO would have wasted away.
BUT -- for that to happen, the NATO countries had to feel safe and unthreatened
Well, Putin changed all that.
He threatens everyone.
SO, now the NATO countries are increasing spending, and reviewing their energy deals with Russia.
The trends now are not in Russia's favor.
NATO has more money.
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Again, Peter is too simplistic.
The current structure of free trade and globalization is ending, or at least changing greatly.
HOWEVER -- we CANNOT go back to the pre-WW2 structure. Here is why ---
1. The colonial structures don't exist.
2. National companies no longer exist -- -they are multi-national, and larger than most governments.
3. Internet, global finance, and global conminication. We cannot go back to the isolated countries of the 1930's.
4. Contracts and international law requires some degree of current globalization.,
5. The US Navy is no longer the sole guarantor of the current system. Other countries have navies, and they won't want to see the current system end, if they can stop it.
India, Italy, UK, France, Austrualia, Mexico, Brazil, etc will do everything they can to keep the current system going.
BTW -- who is supplying most of the ships to combat Somali piracy?? It is NOT the US.
The current system will transform. It will NOT go back.
Exactly what it will look like --- that is the BIG question.
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@headsofhiphop Colonialism was not done to benefit the colonized. Colonies were done only to benefit the main country.
When countries are starving, they are not good candidates to be colonies.
The main reason colonies will NOT happen is that our economy has changed. In the colonial period, wealth came from resources - raw materials. Colonies were established to get them -- furs, tobacco, sugar, spices, etc.
Now, wealth is creaed from information processing -- banking, finance, insurance, etc. That is why Ireland is richer than UK on per capita basis.
So, no colonies.
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I would not be surprised if Xi is ousted. He should be ousted.
China has declined under his leadership. He has profoundly hurt China's financial foundation with his attack on major corporations.
If corporations and their oligarchs were growing too powerful, couldn't they be restrained and controlled in a gentler, less destructive, way?
Next, Xi's policy of the threats and confrontations with almost all neighbors disrupted relations with countries that were also profitable markets. US, India, Japan, and Australia have all started on a path of reducing trade with China. China's trade and profits would be much higher if Xi had not made China an intolerable trading partner.
Finally, Xi's handling of the COVID epidemic was beyond stupid. It is almost as if Xi decided to declare war on the Chinese people. How is that going to help China or the CCP??
When future histories are written, IMO, Xi Jinping will be considered an idiot, and a disaster for China.
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Looking at history, it is hard to believe that the CCP can maintain its position of control and power indefinitely.
However, CCP may not lose power or be replaced soon. It is possible for these conditions to go on for generations.
The good news, for me, is that this makes China inherently weak.
Tsarist Russia also treated its citizens horribly, with no rule of law, and treating citizens like disposable garbage.
That made Russia much weaker than its huge size at the time should have made it.
Same with China. How can China be strong, and have a strong military, when it has to expend so much effort in
controlling, policing, and monitoring its population.
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What the CCP does not understand is the lack of foreign, especially American buyers, come from decisions made by those companies,
not the US government.
The reasons foreign buyers are not coming are these ==
1. The CCP constant talk of war with Taiwan creates risk for buyers,
You see, if a war broke out, maritime trade in the South and East China Sea's will be stopped.
Maritime insurance is not available in a war zone. So, buyers may not get their goods.
That is a serious risk.
2. Foreign businessmen no longer feel safe in China. Abusive arrests and harassment makes them feel unsafe and unwanted.
Even if a company wanted to do business with China, how can they, if their executives won't go??
3. On top of that, the Chinese executives may not be able to leave China to do business. If foreign businessmen cannot get in,
and Chinese businessmen cannot get out --- how can they get together to do anything???
4. Lastly, and this might be the most important, is that western companies may not trust Chinese contracts, or their enforcement in China.
Western companies need to trust contracts and the legal mechanisms for enforcing them.
Who can trust the CCP and China??
They have proved themselves to be fickle friends.
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Our basic strategic need to support the ME oil countries has declined a lot, and will eventually end completely.
1. The reason we and the world were so interested in ME stability was oil, of course. US & NATO have been guaranteeing
Saudi and Kuwait protection from interference -- both foreign & domestic sources. Oil was critical to the world economy.
2 We have discovered fracking, and now make our own oil. The world has discovered many more oil fields -- even Israel is oil independent.
Plus, the world also fracks now. So, there is NO threat of real oil shortages in the future,
3. Most importantly, though, is the development of renewable energy. A renewable energy power plant is now cheaper to build than an oil powered one, and a country need not import fuel for them. By 2030, the vast majority of cars and trucks being sold will be electric, or at least hybrid. Countries around the world will use less and less oil
THEREFORE, America will no longer need to defend the status quo in the Middle East. We won't need to care.
I hope Biden understands this, and lowers our support for Saudi Arabia and MBS.
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China's military is still crap.
1. No experience.
2. Leadership is questionable. I suspect that appointments of generals and admirals are politically based.
That was the tradition under Imperial China, and the CCP models itself after Imperial China.
3. Naval vessels and aircraft seem well designed, but how good is maintenance??
4. Training -- modern armies are complicated organizations with complex equipment. Training needs to be done frequently, and in depth.
For instance, in 1940, Italy had a much larger and more modern navy in the Mediterranean.
On paper, Italy should have prevailed. Instead, England easily prevailed over Italy. After Taranto, and Matapan, the Italian navy never came out of port for the rest of the war.
With our naval tradition, going back two centuries, who would you put your money on
when the US & Chinese navies clash.
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@LOLLOL-kg4dz if you disagree, try speaking to my points.
Your point about "no experience" not being a real issues, since some African countries have had lots of conflicts, yet they are not considered good.
Good observation. But, it does not apply. "Experience" means more about the experience of the generals, leaders, logisticians, etc. The military as a whole.
Soldier training is only a part of it.
The US military has had a lot of experience in wars (whether they were good wars, is another issue.)
The disrespect China shows towards other countries shows that China's leaders may not fear other armies, or having a way.
It is that over-confidence that I fear may lead to a real war.
History has shown wars to be destructive, deadly, and longer than leaders think they will be.
IF China attempts to invade Taiwan, I don't think it will be as easy or as quick as they may anticipate.
More ships, planes, and people will be destroyed than they may be willing to accept.
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Support international rules??
Not when they defy the UN and the international court by claiming the South China Sea as belonging only to them.
Wanting cooperation?
Not when they threaten war to so many countries - US, UK, Australia, India, Taiwan, Japan, Sweden, Vietnam, Philippines, and Canada. (Sorry, I am sure I missed some.).
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If India got a Prime Minister that was actively trying to destroy your democracy, your democratic customs, and your democratic institutions --
would you like it if Americans supported that person??? And, called for his re-election, just because of a rhetorical statement of support for the US???
Indian support of Trump is wrong, stupid, and insulting.
Supporting Trump just shows how little you know of democracy, Trump, and the United States.
But, then India has always been OK with totalitarian regimes -- look at how comfortable India was with Stalin and the Soviet Union. The fact that he abused and killed people in the Gulags was totally OK with India.
India should look within itself, and decide whether you really like democracies or not.
Trump is a fascist wannabe. Backing him, shows that you have strong fascist tendencies, and will likely lose your democracy at some point.
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@artel6225 I am Irish, who were the victims of British genocide from 1840 to 1850, when over 6 million Irish were killed.
Also, I am Progressive, and support BLM, etc. However, I do not like how many on the left demonize anyone who happens to be a white male. Sanders is a white male, so they criticize him, too.
Saying, "well he is the exception." is not enough.
Stop using broad language to demonize a group.
It is bad to say "blacks are .......",
It should also be bad to say "whites are......"
We are all different. And, many white males support Progressivism.
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There is NOTHING anyone can do -- except Xi, the CCP, and China.
The source of the tensions is from China, no place else.
And it only comes from the leadership of Xi and the CCP, no one else.
To "analyze", and suggest there are things US, or other nations can do to "manage" China
is a huge mistake.
We have only ONE choice ---
To prepare for war, be ready if China starts it.
IF Taiwan, the US, and other countries show they are PREPARED FOR WAR,
then, and only then, may China be deterred.
Thus, war may be avoided --- through preparation for it.
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Did you know that the star Polaris, or the North Star, is only about 2,800 miles from Earth???
Yep, its true. Here is the proof.
I live in Chicago.
The North Star is in the sky about 45 degrees up.
If I go to the North Pole, the North Star is directly overhead.
That creates a right triangle with 45 degrees at the vertices.
In such a triangle, the height equals the base.
Since it is about 2,800 miles from Chicago to the North Pole,
the North Star must be 2,800 above the Earth at the North Pole.
See??
Isn't math wonderful.
BTW -- if you accept this prove, and that the world is flat,
then you are nuttier than Walnut tree.
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I am a senior, and I find it both disturbing and mysterious that most seniors support the Republican party, and Trump -- at least they used to.
First, the elderly need healthcare, that is obvious. SO, why do the elderly support the Republican Party who want to end Obamacare, and even Medicare? Why do the elderly support that??
Moreover, the elderly need Social Security, and Republicans have always been against it. Republicans try to reduce its payouts, and many want to eliminate it. Others want to steal it, by giving it to Wall Street.
Why have the elderly supported a party that is against them?
Why do they support a party that doesn't care if they live in misery and then die without health care??
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Runaway greenhouse, like Venus, cannot happen --- true.
BUT - runaway to an ice-free warmer Earth can happen.
It may be happening now.
In 2000, atmospheric CO2 was going up about 1ppm/yr.
Now, it is going up about 2.5ppm/yr.
This year, it went up 2.8ppm, so it is likely accelerating.
Is this happening because of human activity??
I don't think so.
Humanity has not tripled its CO2 output in 23 years.
Nature is supplying the CO2 from melting permafrost, I believe.
If I am right, then even if humanity stopped ALL Co2 production,
the Earth would still increase atmospheric CO2.
CO2 would keep increasing until all the permafrost was melted,
and the once sequestered carbon was added to the carbon-cycle.
The last time we had an ice free world was in the Eocene and through the Mesozoic.
Our world of polar ice caps and glaciers has not been typical of Earth over the
last 500 million years.
IMO, we are likely moving back to an Eocene or Cretaceous-like climate.
If we are, then the polar ice caps will be gone, and oceans will be 200 feet deeper.
Now this will take time. It won't happen in our lifetimes.
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India need not worry about Trump losing the presidency. Our shift towards the Indo-Pacific is very fundamental.
If you notice, none of the recent actions in the region have been criticized by the Democrats. Even the trade war with China, which did get some criticism at first, is no longer criticized.
Most Americans are ignorant of our freedom of navigation patrols in the SCS, or our selling a ship to Philippines, or re-occupying Subic Bay, etc. But, those that do know support our moves very much.
I know Indians support Trump. I believe that support is based on ignorance of the man, and the fear that other leaders in the US will not support India. That is not true. Like I said, our pivot in the region is fundamental, and as such, it will be supported by both parties for many years to come.
Just as our Cold War policies were supported by both parties for decades -- so too, will our efforts in the Indo-Pacific to isolate China, and stabilize the be long lasting.
I suspect that just as we founded NATO to protect Europe, I think a new Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization will be founded to protect the Indo-Pacific region. India, US, Japan, and most of the nations of the region should be members. The more members, the better it will work.
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It is important to understand the biggest problem of non-democratic systems -- and China will suffer from it. Democracy shines during times of stress and succession. For instance, during the Great Depression, democracies like US, UK, Canada, etc had no problem weathering it. People got angry and voted in other people. In a democracy, no problem to the system. In unsettled countries like Germany and Italy, dictatorships happened. In Russia, Stalin survived, but he was very brutal to do it.
Monarchies and dictatorships have problems of succession. The Roman Empire constantly had it. Spain's dictatorship ended when Franco died. Russia is always in crisis when a Communist dictator dies. Kruschev was the only one peacefully removed from power, I believe.
Even today, fear for losing their power is the reason given for China still feeding its debt monster. Why would they have that fear, if China system was truly stable??
Also, China has always cycled between central imperial control, and warlord provincial control. Can the internal stresses inside China cause it to break into provincial warlord ruled sections, as in the past??
To think that the current 30 year rise of China is permanent, and will enable China to dominate the world, does not take into account so many other factors that will inhibit that. It may happen, but I doubt it.
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Banking, government finance, real estate, and wage decline must be understood as a combined entity in China.
The BIG mistake being made, as I see it, is that these things are talked about AS IF they were related in the same
way they exist in the west.
In China, they are directly linked.
That direct linkage helped China's meteoric growth.
Now, they are acting in unison to bring down China's economy.
Local governments are going bankrupt --
as evidenced by the fact that teachers, transit workers, and police are being paid partial wages,
and sometimes not getting paid at all.
China's economy is crashing.
It is disintegrating.
In ten years, it won't be recognizable.
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Yes. I find the constant equating EEZ rights with sovereignty rights to be quite irritating.
Virtually all videos and reports confuse them.
They keep equating China's claims of sovereignty to PH, Vietnam, and others claim to their UN mandated EEZ rights.
It diminishes China's illegal claims, and their warlike intentions.
For make no mistake, IF China exercises those claims ---
it will commit acts of war.
Stopping a country flagged ship on the high seas, which the SCS is, is actually an act of war.
So far, as China has done that, nations of the world have been tolerant.
That will not go on forever.
One day, a ship will not submit, China will fire on that ship, somebody might be killed,
and then there is an incident.
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More nuanced than I expected. Pretty good.
One mistake, though.
The US/China problem was not really about trade, although that is where the problem got expressed.
The real problem with China came from China's threats of war, military buildup, and actual aggressive actions against India, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Philippines.
Most of all, it has been China's promise of war, not just threats, but actual statements of intention for war.
THAT is what is causing the US to de-couple from China.
Just as, the US de-coupled from Russia after it invaded Crimea. With the recent invasion of the rest of Ukraine, the US has cut trade ties with Russia in many more areas.
It is war and threat of war that drives the US action, not the trade deficits.
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That fight at the end where the guy is swinging the pole arm around, reminded me of a fight I had when I was about 10 years old. A bully in a playground started a fight with me.
He had a two by four. He swung it from side to side, as he stepped closer and closer.
I stepped back a bit with each swing, noticing how regular his swings were.
When one of his swings went to one side, and when it stops to change directions,
I stepped in, grabbed the end of the 2x4, and pulled sharply to the other side.
He held on to it, and went sliding on the ground, where he hit his head.
He got up crying.
At that point, an adult stepped in, and scolded me for picking on him.
I left.
Boy, hadn't thought of that in years.
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Excellent analysis.
BTW...It is "the scorpion still kills the dog", not "kills the frog"
It comes from an Indian parable....
A scorpion asks a dog to take it across the river.
The dog says, "No, you will sting and kill me".
The scorpion replies, "I won't sting you, because it would not benefit me to sting you. I need you to take me across the river."
The dog thinks, and says, "I understand, in that case, I can trust you, since you would only hurt yourself, too."
The dog swims across the river with the scorpion on his head.
Halfway across the river, the scorpion stings him.
Before he dies, and sinks beneath the water,
the dogs says, "Why? you stung me, now we will both die. Why?"
The scorpion replies, "I am a scorpion".
That is the parable. It has a valuable lesson about people.
Why does Trump lie, when the truth would serve him better??
Yep, he is a scorpion.
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The State Department does NOT approve a sale, with Congress having a later veto possibility.
That is NOT how it works.
ALL sales of military equipment MUST be approved by Congress.
When announced, that approval has almost always already been given by vote in Congress, and signed by the President.
The President and the State Department cannot just go around giving guns to everyone without Congressional oversight.
Now, the Senate is dominated by Republicans, so it would usually support a president of its own party (not always true)
In this situation, both Dems and Repubs support Taiwan almost 100%.
That is why, in 2021 when Biden becomes president, and Dems take over both House and Senate,
do NOT expect any change in support for either Taiwan or India.
After all, the US has supported South Korea and Japan since 1950, when Democratic President, Truman, defined our Cold War strategy.
That strategy was supported and implemented for 30 years under D & R changes in the government -- with total consistency,
with constant intrepid pressure on the Soviet Union, until it crumbled.
I see the US doing the same strategy to the CCP and China.
The murmurs are now that a NATO like defensive alliance will be created, involving US, India, Japan, and Australia, at least.
ASEAN nations may also become members, too. In the new administration, I expect this to happen in the next two years.
I also expect the US and other countries to recognize Taiwan. China will be isolated, and evicted from the system of world trade -- just as the Soviet Union was.
BTW...If China, Russia, and Iran don't cease their interference in our elections and society, I would expect the US to throttle broadband communication with those countries.
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For me, P-38 is not the best FIGHTER. It was not the best in plane-on-plane air duels, IMO.
I think P-51 or Hellcat (not mentioned???) was #1.
Now, if one was to aske what is the best fighting aircraft, that is another story.
What plane was best at fighting, ground attack, bombing, recon, long range escort, long range strike, etc.
Then there are only TWO planes that come to the top -- P-38 and the Mosquito.
The Mosquito, IMO, was the best -- by far.
It could do everything, but make tea.
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Considering the size of China's economic problems, I am mystified by Xi's aggression, bullying, and threats of war. These policies have alienated all its neighboring nations -- important export targets. Not only is future growth of exports to these countries unlikely, but an actual decline in exports is likely.
Why??
Why piss everyone off??
Now all the nations of the region are building their militaries. Philippines are getting Brahmos missiles. Taiwan, which has thousands of its own HF 2&3 missiles, are getting a large quantity of Harpoons. Any invasion fleet would be sent to the bottom, if China is stupid enough to attempt an invasion.
Once, China was liked and not feared.
Then, China became hated and feared.
Soon, China will be hated and NOT feared.
Nations are unifying in their opposition to China's ambitions.
If China needs help from other countries, that aid will NOT come.
Although a China collapse will hurt the world economy, and all nations,
nations are now concluding they would rather endure China's collapse,
than cope with a strong China.
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Life is always more complicated and nuanced than anthropology admits.
For instance, the Aztecs and Mayans had no domesticated animals, yet were they not a civilization.
Scientists LOVE civilizations that built in stone -- for they leave wonderful things to dig up thousands of years later.
YET, are those who build with wood not civilizations?
The Druids worshipped under great oak trees. were they not civilized?
For me the main criteria is writing, yet even there, I might have to give it up.
Were the North American Indian tribes of the 17th and 18th centuries civilized??
Cultured, yes.
But, they also were part of the global fur trading systems set up to satisfy the European market.
They had philosophy, and a complex religion.
The Iroquois settlement at Onondaga had thousands of residents, and bigger than most cities in the colonies.
They built their "castles" out of wood, so do they not count?
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10 years ago, pre-Xi, I would have been quite concerned. China's growing economy and wealth, were becoming like the gravity of a black hole -- irresistible. US seemed to becoming irrelevant. Duterte of the Philippines invited us to leave.
But, then came Xi, and China changed. China's whole approach changed.
China became belligerent. A bully. China has threatened war with Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Australia, India, and US. China has actually attacked India, Vietnam, and Philippines.
Now the Quad has formed. The US has been asked back, and invited to stay. Even Duterte has changed his tune.
All the nations of the region have expanded military spending.
Alliances are forming.
Now, I have little worry that the US will win this Cold War.
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@golagiswatchingyou2966 First, China's recent problems happened because they violated the conditions of the system of world trade. It is now apparent that China wants to destroy the current system of world trade, to one dominated and controlled by China -- hence the push for SOVEREIGNTY over the SCS. (caps for emphasis.)
As for Russia, modern values (they are now universal enough to be called that) are slowly penetrating Russia. Putin is a product of the Stalin era. He admires and imitates him. But, it has been 30 years since the fall of the USSR, and the youth are the future of Russia. Note the recent anti-Putin protests.
You talk of warm water ports, and other obsolete issues. Much of wealth is created and travels on the telecommunications and the internet. Work is performed on the internet -- not going to a factory or to an office.
We read history -- but we must keep in mind that ALL that we learn in studying history is HISTORY. The conditions of the world have profoundly changed -- not once -- but several times.
Telegraph - Telephone - Radio - Television - Movies - Internet - Cell Phone - and more are coming. These developments created eras of their own.
Oh, one more -- the multi-national corporation. Once, a company belonged and represented the interests to the country it was in. No more. What country does Mercedes Benz, or General Motors, or BP belong?? They have global operations, and global owners. They are not beholden to their countries.
Russia needs to open up to allow multi-nationals, if it wants to join and benefit from the modern system of world trade.
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@SportZFan4L1fe Abundance of natural resources is not that important in creating economic wealth. That comes from value added activities, like manufacturing. Now also from services that use little in raw materials, yet have huge economic impact.
Look that richest countries today - most have little natural resources -- Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, UK, Netherlands, and Israel. They are wealthy, while other nations rich in resources are poor.
BTW.. it was the Soviet Union's lack of a private sector that prevented Soviet Union from making and selling things like cars and TV's.
Also, China's theft of US know-how is not stopping US from making things. And, US making TV's did not stop Russia from making them. They just didn't.
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@LancesArmorStriking Geography only gives opportunity to threats.
Threats come from nations.
A way to prevent threats is to have good relations with them.
Threatening war, like China is doing, does not work.
Conquest and dominion has been done since the beginning of empires 4500 years ago (Sumerian Empire is considered to be the first).
What has been shown since WW2 is that more money is made by trading with a good neighbor, than by conquering them, and then extracting their wealth.
Look at how Eastern Europe has thrived after leaving the Soviet Empire.
Russia treated Eastern Europe like subjects, and kept them poor, so they could not revolt.
After liberation, their economies boomed, and now, their neighbors are richer because of trade with them.
That is the BIGGEST mistake by Peter Zeihan, IMO, is that he sees and talks about nations as if they were pre-modern states in a pre-modern world.
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@LancesArmorStriking I agree that geography is important, but not nearly as important as it once was.
In the ancient world, the geographies of Egypt, Mesopotamia, Greece, China, etc determined much of what they were, and how they behaved.
HOWEVER, Peter Zeihan and other analysts seem to ignore profound developments of the last 150 years.
1. Technology has diminished the impact of geography. Planes, trains, and automobiles have diminished the effect of distance on trade. They also diminish (though not negate) the impact of geography on military operations.
China's navy is large enough to stop any country from blocking its maritime trade.
That is why I don't accept that argument.
No one wants war, and if anyone starts one, it will be China that does it.
2. The second development is even more important, IMO. The post WW2 trade order has made the world much wealthier, and even more stable (despite the Middle East).
I disagree with Peter Zeihan that the US navy is what is maintaining it, and if we go home, it will collapse.
We started it, that's true. But, now the world trade order has a life of its own.
For instance, many navies protect ships going thru the pirate infested seas near Somalia.
The community of nations like the current arrangement, and they will do their best to maintain it, even if we don't.
Geography is not the big determinant of trade dominance, or of military concern, that it once was.
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This IS who we are.
This IS who we have become.
Even with all these deaths, Republicans will defend selling guns without background checks,
using 3-D printers to make guns, selling guns to children, etc etc.
Republicans support the gun lobby, not families.
But, the right wing propaganda machine of Fox News, et al, confuse enough,
so that no laws are passed.
Even Biden's recent efforts, though minimal, are ridiculed by Republicans and the right wing.
What is sad, is that when you go to any Police Department, you will find Fox News playing.
Police tend to be Republicans who vote for laws that kill cops.
Crazy??
You betcha.
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There is another effect not talked about. IMO, Trump's presidency has pissed off a lot of Democrats and Independents. Their anger, I think (hope), will increase the Democratic voter turnout.
Moreover, this will be across the country. SOooo.......
1. I expect a Democrat to become president.
2. I expect the Democrats to increase, slightly, their hold in the House.
3. I actually expect the D's to take the Senate. I expect Alabama to go R. However, I expect the D's to take CO, AZ, ME, NC, and IA.
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@user-up1ny If India is not a country because it is a "British Colonial Invention",
then by similar argument,
USA, Nigeria, Australia, Canada, Malta, also are not countries.
Nations that were also "Colonial Inventions" that must NOT be countries by your argument include - Mexico, All countries in Latin & South America, All countries in Africa, except Ethiopia,
There are other countries, but I hope you get my drift ---
Your argument of why India is not a country is totally asinine, and wrong.
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Times are a-changing.
200 years ago - you bought flour, sugar, and meat at your local market. You baked your bread, cookies, and made your own soup, stews, etc. You bought your beer in a ceramic jar at the local pub.
90 years ago - you bought your sliced bread at the bakery, fruits & vegetables at the local green grocer, and meats at the butcher.
After WW2, we had all kinds of canned foods. The war gave us candy bars and M&M's.
50 years ago - we went to the supermarket. The butcher, bakery, and green grocer stores were put out of business.
NOW -- shopping is moving on-line, and we are getting everything delivered to us.
Crime MAY be an issue, but even stores in low crime areas are having problems.
Amazon and on-line shopping will affect us all everywhere.
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I expected this.
I expect more.
A NATO of the region needs to be created.
An Indo-Pacific Alliance of the Quad, plus - Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand should be created.
(Myanmar should be excluded since it is not stable.)
Laos & Cambodia I hope would join. Then the alliance could incorporate the issues of the Mekong River into its policies.
I believe the creation of this alliance will happen because it offers great benefits to the region,
AND it checkmates China.
If all the nations in the region show a united opposition, then China will be powerless to do anything.
Even with all its power, China cannot fight such unity.
The United States would offer the core power, as it has done in NATO,
but make no mistake, the true power comes from its unity.
Even small nations like Singapore, or Malaysia, add their power.
Individually, each could be overcome, one-by-one, by China. Each would succumb to China's intimidation.
In unity, they would be strong.
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Progressivism is a form of Socialism that recognizes the value of markets, it just believes the need monitoring and regulation.
For instance, for utilities, which are natural monopolies, a Socialist would nationalize,
while a Progressive would make them regulated utilities, like they are in most states.
In Europe, utilities are often run by governments.
Both, though, believe in Social Security, national health care, banking regulation,
consumer protection, worker rights, and many other areas.
Progressives believe in a strong military, and in the support of international institutions
that promote freedom and democracy.
Progressives support the UN, NATO, Voice of America, G7, World Court, etc.
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One more thing, the main polling advantage Biden has is his polling with black voters ---
and that comes from his position as Obama's Vice President. HOWEVER....
as we move into the primary season, black voters will look at the candidates more closely.
They will see how Biden assisted mass incarceration back in the 90's, and blocked assistance to the borrowers drowning in medical, seniors, service members, union members, and victims of deadbeat dads. The last issue is huge in the black community, since huge numbers of black men are in prison due to the mass incarceration, which Biden helped initiate.
As they look closer at Biden, I believe many black voters will abandon Joe Biden.
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@adr.X If you support negotiations now, that means you want Ukraine to reward Putin for its invasion with Ukraine territory.
If you support that, it means you approve of the horror and slaughter Putin ordered.
Funny, how no one was talking about Ukraine negotiating when Russia was winning.
You were fine with Russia winning, killing people, and taking territory. If Russia had taken all of Ukraine, you would be OK with that.
Yes, if you support negotiations now, you support Putin, murder, and death.
Simple as that.
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As oil declines, so too will the oil powers decline.
For the Middle East, that means the non-oil powers of the ME, Turkey & Egypt, will increase in power.
Their power is in their population, their industry, and their traditional position of regional culture and influence.
Iraq's future is more difficult to project. Although a traditional site of empires, it is now divided and weak, with Iran looming over it.
Mesopotamia has often been ruled by rulers from the Zagros - Persians, Medes, Parthians.
Iraq may end up being a client state of Iran, or even absorbed into it, if Iran is allowed to flex its muscle.
But, I think US and the west will not allow that to happen.
Saudie Arabia will likely suffer revolution and end of monarchy. Monarchy is not viable as a ruling structure.
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To India -- understand this -- you are not in this alone.
It is not India vs China, at least not anymore.
It is The World vs China.
If we work together, we can make China's threats look ridiculous.
Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, and Malaysia need our help.
The US is helping. India is helping, too.
I would like a formal defensive alliance be formed with the members - India, US, Japan, Australia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other ASEAN nations.
China could not challenge such an alliance, and all the member states would no longer need to fear Chinese threats or aggression.
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Must I state the obvious?? Dimetrodons had sails??
What are sails used for?? --- To catch the wind, and propel a ship, or in this case, an animal forward.
And we know that Dimetrodons lived in wet environments with ponds, lakes, streams and rivers
So, my theory (and I challenge you to prove me wrong) is this.....
the Dimetrodon sail was used to attract a mate, just as modern boat owners use their crafts to attract mates.
Male Dimetrodons would enter a pond or lake.
A distant object, say a tree or rock, would be selected.
The males would then compete with each other on how fast they could get to the target.
Now the sail helped them tremendously helping them catch the wind or tack against it.
The females would bask on shore, throwing kisses at their favorite Dimetrodontic yachtsmen.
The male reaching the target first would then have his choice of the now properly stimulated and excited females.
The other males would get their choices determined by their positions at the finish.
Unfortunately, some would end so far back, that they would not mate at all, being rejected by all the remaining females as losers.
Survival of the fittest can be cruel.
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Your analysis needs to look deeper into basic economic relationship.
US has guaranteed Saudi rule since the foundation of Aramco. Saudi was to support US regional interests. Hence, Saudi Arabia did NOT take part in any of the Israeli wars.
We support Saudi Arabia against its local rival -- Iran.
The US even overlooked Saudi participation in 9/11 incident.
That relationship was formed because oil was the strategic resource that determined economic success and global power.
Things have changed.
1. US now produces its own oil, and no longer directly uses or needs Arabian Oil.
2. Renewable energy is coming on strong around the world. In 20 to 40 years, it will surpass oil as the primary source of world energy and the support of global manufacturing.
3. The powerful countries in the future will produce all their own energy -- either from renewables, or their own fossil fuels. The global oil & gas trade will shrink - we don't know how much or how fast, but it will happen.
4. Inertia should have kept the US/Arabia relation strong for a long time to come. MBS has made that difficult. His wanton killing of journalists, and terrorizing his own family, shows the man is a narcissistic psychopath. He is unpredictable, and cannot be relied upon.
He has the US supporting a war it does not want to support in Yemen. He uses our weapons to commit war crimes, in which we share some guilt.
5. Americans do not view Arabia with either affection or admiration. We are embarrassed that we support a harsh monarchy that chops heads off, and flogs people for punishments, when convicted in tribunals with no defense attorneys.
The relationship between US and Saudi Arabia have almost nothing to do with speeches given by this or that president. As soon as you shown clips of speeches, I knew your analysis was weak.
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US is back in Subic Bay. India should not let US shoulder the burden of opposing China in the SCS on its own.
If the US has to do it alone, then China will say they are victims of US imperialism.
The nations of the region must show their backing of American operations and presence.
In a Marx Bros. movie, a lady asks Groucho (who is fighting a man) "what are you doing??""
Groucho replies, "I am fighting for your honor, which is more than you have ever done."
Well, when the US is asked, "Why are you fighting China in the SCS?"
You don't want the US saying, "We are fighting for your independence, which is more than you have ever done".
For ultimately, if we are the only ones opposing, in the end, we will fail, if we are unsupported.
So, my question to India is -- "Are you doing what you need to do to oppose China?"
"Are you doing enough to oppose China in the South China Sea??"
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@northwest783 Not as much as I would like. I realize the limitation. I do the best I can to understand China. Never having been there, I know there is much I don't understand.
On the other hand, someone from China will likely not understand much of it either.
The US is large as well. Most people don't really try to understand it. Most Americans think there experience is the same as others. So, they don't see the vast differences in people here.
I was fortunate - I went to a high school where 40+ languages were spoken. Almost all my friends were immigrants from other countries -- Romania, Germany, Singapore, China, Japan, Columbia, Norway, and other places. I do appreciate that people and cultures are very different.
That is a reason why I read so much history.
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@northwest783 To follow on that thought -- China can be very different places to the Chinese themselves.
For instance, a person born in Shanghai will experience that city very differently, than an internal immigrant from Wuhan, who has no access to the medical, educational, and other services we in the west would expect from our government.,
The binding of citizens to their home town is unique to China. It is a form of modern serfdom, IMO.
It holds China back profoundly. It is a source of great injustice, and I am sure a source of resentment.
About 20%, or 300 million Chinese, are internal immigrants.
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Ironically, until Putin started threatening Ukraine,
there had been no discussion, pressure, or intent for Ukraine to join Nato.
Until Crimean conquest by Putin, it was assumed that Ukraine would stay outside of NATO.
However, Putin changed all that by threatening Ukraine.
Now, Ukraine feels the need to seek protection.
Moreover, other nations also feel threatened.
Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, and Bulgaria feel threatened.
Putin has mentioned them in his demands.
He has made demands on Finland and Sweden.
Although they have a tradition of neutrality,
Putin does not recognize that.
He pushes so hard on countries to do what he wants,
that he is forcing them to opposite policies.
This is partly why I say Putin is an idiot.
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China invents paper and printing.
Europe invents publishing, novels, Universities.
China invents gunpowder and rockets for display.
Europe invents the wheel lock, matchlock, flintlock, cartridge, pistol, revolver, breech loading cannon,
howitzers, artillery, etc etc.
China developed silk
The west developed nylon, rayon, Dacron, polyesters, etc.
China developed Imperial rule - Only the Emperor has rights. His rule is total.
Courts are an extension of the Emperor's will.
The west developed representative democracy. The citizens have rights, vote administrators in and out of office. Courts get their rights and powers from a Constitution, which is a reflection of the will of the people.
I am so sick of the East's adoration of their past of Imperial rule, palace coups, and untold luxury based on the subjugation, exploitation, and impoverishment of the people they are supposed to rule.
Putin is in trouble partly because of his adoration of Peter The Great. He may have been great in his era, he would be a thug in ours.
Xi is leading China to ruin because he idolizes Mao and China's emperors of old.
The world has moved on. Economies have moved on. Nations do not relate with each other like they did in the past. Economies are not as isolated or independent as they were in the past.
Putin is finding out that war cannot be conducted as it had been in the past.
Those countries that do not keep with the modern world, will be left behind.
They will be impoverished, and left with their memories of what they were,
and maybe wonder what they could have been.
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China threatens the following countries with war - Taiwan, Japan, India, Philippines, Vietnam, US, Canada, and Australia,
All have been threatened in the past 2 years.
India has been attacked, killing some Indians.
Vietnam & Philippines have had fishing boats sunk, and fishermen killed.
Taiwan suffers military incursions into its air and sea space on a daily basis.
United States does nothing like this to any country.
We were in Afghanistan because over 2,500 American were killed in an attack from Afghanistan.
And, yes, if you attack the United States, you WILL suffer.
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Old saying is "If you don't use it, you lose it."
That can be applied to our democracy,.
IF we do NOT vote ---- If we do not exercise OUR democratic rights -----
THEN --- we may lose them.
Trump will become a dictator if we let him.
Trump, supported by his evil minion, Senator McConnell, has packed the Supreme Court
with arch-conservatives, who support corporation rights over human rights.
Trump has already sent troops to terrorize, intimidate, and control American citizens in Portland Oregon.
If he could, he would use our military to suspend the Constitution and rule with Martial Law.
If Trump is elected again, he may do that.
Do you value your freedoms??
Do you value our democracy??
If so, then VOTE.
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Ha! Do today's Christians have any idea what they supposedly believe?? Do they believe in the tenets of their professed faith??
In College, during one class, which mostly had Catholics, I asked them if they were Catholics -- they said "Yes". So, I went through the lines of the Apostle's Creed. FYI, to be Catholic, you have to believe in every one of them. Sometimes in the past, not accepting even one of them would deem you a heretic, and get you killed.
So, I asked -- Did they believe Christ was from a virgin birth??? Most said NO.
Was Jesus Christ God?? some sad "NO"
Did he rise from the Dead? Did he ascend into heaven?? Is there a Holy Spirit?? etc.
Well, most did not accept at least one, which told me that most "Catholics" were NOT Catholic.
In fact, many were Agnostic without knowing it, since they did not 100% believe in an anthropomorphic God.
I found it very enlightening.
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