Comments by "Ash Roskell" (@ashroskell) on "Good Times Bad Times"
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There are three big obstacles to reunification, or so it seems to me? First, the tiny clique at the top of North Korea’s regime. They won’t do anything that dilutes their power base, and they only paid lip service to the idea a decade ago, so as to exploit trade-craft opportunities and use those briefly maintained talks and committees as opportunities to probe the South for weaknesses and opportunities to gain power down there and gain access to political and business institutions.
Then there’s the humiliating reality of widespread poverty in the North and exposing the appalling failure of Communism to meet even the most basic needs of its people. They don’t want that stark comparison exposed for the whole world to see, laying abject failure at the feet of the cult like family of the Kim’s.
Finally, there’s the economic issues which are all laid out in this video. But, I’m pretty sure that, from the perspective of the North’s leadership, those will remain both immovable and unspoken obstacles.
In reality, the only real hope I can see would be pretty disastrous from a North Korean’s point of view. Either a natural disaster causes the collapse of an overwhelmed regime that can no longer maintain command and control over its military, as they are as badly effected and in need of western aid as everybody else? Seems vanishingly unlikely. Or? . . . A Soviet Union style collapse from within? Unlooked for and unexpected by the west, as in the case of Russia? But, then China would seek to step in alongside the extant forces of America from the borders, potentially causing chaos. Besides which, it seems like the North mitigates against such possibilities by keeping their population in what looks like 1900’s style living conditions, perpetual fear and a constant Zombie-like worship of their leaders on pain of death, which they could never maintain if their people had access to the internet.
The only third possibility I could see, would be through China itself, upon who’s graces North Korea relies. They would not and could not exist as they are without China’s protection. We can take Russia out of that equation now (for the most part) but not entirely. And that would only occur through the democratisation of China, which, again, seems vanishingly unlikely.
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