Comments by "Ash Roskell" (@ashroskell) on "CNN" channel.

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  7. Those Russian soldiers would find their life expectancy goes up sharply if they went back to Moscow and removed the very small group of oligarchs who are costing them everything, in return for nothing. Putin’s 6 mistakes so far: 1) Underestimating Ukrainian Resolve: Putin should have watched Ukraine On Fire on Netflix. 2) Overestimating his own armed forces. Their equipment is out of date and the boots on the ground are mostly conscripts. One person defending their home has 20 times the fight in them than one conscript who doesn’t want to be there. 3) Stated Objectives: No one in Russia knows WHY this is happening! Putin spent the last 20 years convincing Russians their claims on Ukraine were legit, because they are the, “same people and country,” essentially. Now they’re meant to go kill them all? 4) Putin’s REAL objectives: The whole point is to make sure Shell, Exxon and BP NEVER get to drill for those massive gas and oil reserves which rival Russia’s. It would take years to get it pumping, so he doesn’t want to pump it himself, either. He just wants to make sure NO ONE does, making him the only major supplier in Europe and the second biggest supplier in the world. 5) The west’s real objectives: Which brings us to Putin’s shock at the west’s resolve. Ever since energy security was a thing, for more than a 100 years, the west has NEVER relinquished control of energy security to the East, and they’re not going to start now, right or wrong. 6) How this ends: The west will remain as cautious as it dares to be and, sadly, won’t put Ukraine’s interests above that of energy security. Zelensky’s job is to keep those two interests aligned and to ensure he honours those deals with western oil developers to pay for rebuilding his country, along with reparations from Russia. If he plays his cards right, he could turn Ukraine into an energy powerhouse for the next 20 to 30 years, until the world is off its fossil fuel addiction? Which would only help move countries like Hungary toward democracy and away from reliance on a weakened Russia. Putin will bluff about nukes, but he wants to live as badly as any cowardly bully. He has mistaken the west’s caution for irresolution. They will not allow him to keep Ukraine. But since he keeps threatening nukes, they will do absolutely everything in their power; fomenting revolution in Russia, pouring in resources to Ukraine, long after they’re occupied, and anything else, and sanctions are only just getting started, until Putin is taken out in a palace coup, or taken down by a revolution. Governments of the west will prefer the palace coup for the sake of stability. We should hope for the Revolution, for the sake of real change.
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