Comments by "Ash Roskell" (@ashroskell) on "Ukraine Matters"
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Really appreciated this analysis, and that you asked us for our input. Excellent video. Thank you.
I think it is possible, since you did ask, that this war could end in 2025, but that depends on a lot of things and, most of all, the west chilling out about the idea of Putin being thwarted. Putin wants a long war now and has reorganised his economy for it. So, even Ukraine managing to drive out just some of Russia’s forces is likely to lead to his downfall at this point. But, Russians generally still don’t get it, that total victory is all the west will accept.
Western politicians might well try to talk about appeasement packages, but even they’re all starting to realise that their chances of remaining in office depend on the voters, who won’t accept anything less than total Ukrainian victory. I think that message is only just starting to sink into western political minds, but we are seeing increasing evidence that they get it now.
The voters they depend on have donated money, time and letters to their representatives, all over the free world at historically unprecedented levels. Psychologically, that makes a huge difference. Voters will, “feel,” personally betrayed by any watered down packages and their politicians are seeing that it’s an election issue now.
As for Putin’s financial position, THANK YOU, for pointing out the issue that started this war in the first place. Putin thought he could boost his flagging support with a quick invasion, since the unrest at Russia’s flagging economy looked set to cause demonstrations before the elections, making his fix look even more totalitarian than it already did. The same strategy had worked for him with his partial invasion of Georgia, which boosted his approval ratings and his financial stock. Keep in mind that Navalny was still alive at the time and the prospect of anything from chaotic demonstrations to actual uprisings were realistic at that time.
This smash and grab operation was meant to BOOST the economy and provide a psychological fillip for the people to, “feel good,” about Putin’s leadership. It is a FACT that, had Putin known what was awaiting him in Ukraine, he never would have started this war.
If Kamala Harris becomes POTUS, she will want the plaudits that will come with a victory over Russia. She’s already on board ideologically and, with her honeymoon period ahead of her, and four years in which to bury any bad news in the short memories of American voters, she will seize the opportunity to stomp across Putin’s, “red lines,” to finish the job and take credit for a good deal of that victory.
As well as that, America will be at the front of the cue for rebuilding Ukraine’s massive oil reserves, coal, grain, rare Earth elements, etc. which will lead to an economic boom for Ukraine and America both. The global markets could be transformed and made more secure and that’s too big a legacy for any president to pass up.
Plus, Germany will be now able to get their oil and gas from Ukraine; a closer, ALLIED and secure source. And these events will merely drive Russia’s unsafe economy into the ground.
That will push Russia into even deeper increased dependency on China, as we’re already seeing happen now. Xi is already the senior partner in that relationship, even though many Chinese banks won’t touch Russian investment already, for fear of sanctions. All Russia has is oil and gas, which China will continue to drain at an ever lowering discount price, whilst reclaiming their hotly contested territories back from the Russian Federation in their south east (China’s north east).
Using the interest from Russia’s frozen capital in western banks to pay for Ukraine’s war, which is pending possibility now, will be the capstone on the arch over Russia’s financial tomb. An ongoing, limitless fund, provided by Russians themselves, will be financially ruinous to Russia but also politically humiliating for Putin.
He cannot survive even some of these factors; but, all of them combined? . . .
That just leaves western fears about what happens when Putin falls. But, I think western leaders are even starting to get that now. Russia’s history shows that keeping things stable in the country, whilst the chaos of replacing their leaders goes on behind closed doors, is actually something that Russia is good at. They’ve done it countless times. From the chaos after the death of Stalin, the removal of Khrushchev after the defeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a series of leaders that came and went in the 1980’s, installing Boris Yeltsin after an attempted coup from the old guard communists (with tanks in Red Square, who’s turrets were pointing directly at the Kremlin!) and there are way more examples I could add to that list.
Suffice it to say that Russia will NOT break up into multiple nuclear states, just because Putin retires, dies or is otherwise removed! They will just keep on keeping on, like they always have! And western leaders are far less fearful of post Putin potentialities, since they have been observing events and Russian history repeating itself, yet again.
That is why I think it is possible. But, as you can see, a lot could go wrong with the timeline I laid out: namely, other, “events,” distracting NATO from its goals, with other countries. But the possibility of that kind of derailment decreases with each day that passes in which western resolve stiffens. It’s up to us to keep the pressure on: donating money, writing to our representatives and supporting the politicians who are, “genuinely,” on Ukraine’s side.
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It strikes me that the crux of Zelensky’s plan is one new approach from the west: The willingness of America and the western allies to put Russia in a position of serious military losses. No longer will the support be aimed solely at, “defending,” Ukraine. The idea is to aggressively, “attack,” Russia, until Putin understands he will lose, and, “could,” lose more at home by experiencing a chain of defeats both in Ukraine and ON RUSSIAN SOIL.
If the west really wants an END to this war, Ukraine has to WIN it. And that realisation is slowly sinking in.
Professor Allan Lichtman has made his prediction, that Kamala Harris will win the election. He is world famous for having used his own design of analysis which has correctly predicted the winner of every election in America for over 40 years now. I have followed his work since the Clinton presidency and see his methodology is very well thought out and totally reliable. As far as I’m concerned, we have the answer. Putin cannot rely on trump. 2025 will be the year the war ends, if Harris is willing to up America’s support, which I believe she will. Especially since she has so much to gain from seeing it end and being instrumental in that, and less to lose from early in her presidency. The fickle public will forget any mistakes and vote with their wallets, as per usual, and all candidates know this much at least.
Ukraine’s victory is assured. Our responsibility, with this knowledge in mind, is to keep writing to our representatives so that we can save more lives by ensuring Ukraine’s victory sooner rather than later.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦🔱🇬🇧
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