Comments by "Geoffrey Lyons" (@granatmof) on "Can Russia, despite sanctions, expand its war budget by 50%; its contract troops by 70%?" video.

  1. Putin just has to stay in it until Russian and Chinese bots can get the GOP back in the Whitehouse. At that point the US abandons NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan, and it's Pacific Allies. That wasn't the necessary goal with Trump, Trump was just to so discord and undermine Clinton, but possibilities took hold in that time. The terrible US withdrawal from Afghanistan probably cemented the possibility of US Intelligience weakness during the change of party and insuing domestic shakeup of the US, which prompted Russian aggression in a perceived vulnerable area.
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  2. Sanctions work by decreasing the buying power of the sanctioned state. So those $5 chiplets you need for your missiles now cost $100 each via black market. Middlemen get rich, foreign espionage agencies get rich selling you the stuff their country banned (Iran Contra). Sanctions don't stop bad actors, just make bad actors commit more. The end goal is reduce efficacy. Long term sanctions and embargoes can force a country to lag behind significantly. Cuba and Iran are hardly technologically advanced countries.
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