Comments by "Geoffrey Lyons" (@granatmof) on "Hypothetical NATO intervention in Ukraine; what might it look like?" video.

  1. Thats sort of bullshit. If Russia wants to nuke just inside their border to defend itself from and invasion force, that's a well accepted nuclear use doctrine. Every nuclear nation has that written in their nuclear protocols, and I wouldn't blame Russia for nuking part of itself to destroy an invading g Army. That's just responsible, and why no ukraining military should even get close to the Russian border.
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  2. So the fact is, the US should be start expanding production line capacity today. Even in WW2 it took a few years to fully expand US production capability. The US has seen a significant loss in manufacturing capacity as a result of business decisions from the 80s to increase short term profits to shareholders. However, it would still take 3-5 years to widen pduction capacity. A great example of this is the adoption of the new 6.8mm cartridge for the Army's new rifles. It's going to take the US Army a few years to add those new production lines at their ammo production facilities. Some production lines are so complex they can't really be widened any further. Like the F35. Something like 1000 us subcontractors across the country supply parts. Some of them are actually rather small companies that really can't double production. As for supplying Ukraine with older hardware, part of that was mutual spendthrift ness. If Ukraine spent it's company money in the US company weapons store, they could "buy" a lot more older equipment for cheap. It was still better than what they or Russia had, but it didn't hamper US capabilities. It's also worth pointing out, Ukraine isn't fully trusted with US secret technologies. They're not "in the fold". Part of it Ukraine still has a corruption issue. That hasn't been resolved, and it's even caused trouble for Zelensky in the last year. The US is not going to give Ukrainians unfettered access to and F35 or even the latest Gen radar on the newest F16s. It's not going to happen. Russia and China would have access to the data within a month. The reality is, and this sucks to say, it's not in US interest for the war to be fast. The war weakens Russia a lot. The issue is Russia is starting to form a wartime economy, and I'd be curious how much China has widened production. The US is lagging behind, pososbily in naive hope war will not break out like PREWW2 Britain. Let's just hope the US has its Mosquito figure out properly before the war.
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  3. So in terms of complete battle order if every layer of combat, Britain and Canada are actually missing a few capabilities entirely and rely on American backup to fill those roles. France is the NATO sleeper that people underestimate all the time. They have a more complete independent military system separate from the US and other NATO allies, more or less. They have competing tanks, fighters, missiles, radars, and even a functional navy with carriers. They have recent combat experience on a to-terrorism fighting in Africa. Since this most recent string is possibilities was sort of inspired because Macron floated the idea of NATO troops, in reality France could be well positioned to wider hostilities on its own. Theyd still be defended domestically by NATO anti ballistic missile programs. The Russian Navy is largely defunct and would be outclassed by the French Navy anyway. Their biggest limitation is really the limited success they've had exporting weapon systems. Without servicing international customers in large numbers, their bespoke equipment is a bit more expensive than other NATO members.
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  4. The US has like some decoy missiles and some hunter killer HARM missiles. They're also retiring some AWACS. Give some of those to Ukraine, have them defended by F16s, when they come online. The Ukrainian F16s should be able to launch the decoys and Hunter killer Harms, Russia turns on radar, sees an imaginary group of F16s, locks and fires, and explodes as the Harm hits the target.first day, Russia loses a lot. Second day onward, they don't turn on radar unless absolutely necessary. AWACS track enemy aircraft well before anyone can target anyone and F16s engage at maximum range and take out Russian planes. Russian air is more or less suppressed, and Ukraine has more air control. From there, AWACS starts tracking artillery and ground targets, F16s start dropping bombing on artillery et al. Ukraine takes greater casualties than US in Desert Storm, but that's expected without the full multilevel force of the US. Bombing missions on Russian ground forces start to break moral as months of built up defenses get turned into rubble overnight. US sends there new M7 rifle as a designated marksman rifle, with a dumb scope. Extending the lethal direct fire range of Ukrainian infantry.
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