Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "Thunderf00t" channel.

  1. AEROSPACE ENGINEER HERE: Just some perspective on Crew Dragon and SORRY that this is long. First I absolutely agree that there's massive issues with Elon Musk and how he does business that's perfectly obvious. There's also no doubt the Gwynne Shotwell has said some dumb things which Thunderf00t and others have pointed out. I am also of the same opinion that both Starlink and Starship are doomed to fail (see below). If we are going to fairly judge Falcon9/Crew Dragon then it needs to be compared against its actual competition. You pointed out that a Falcon9 launch costs $67 Million. I have seen Crew Dragon costed at $70 Million. Crew Dragon delivers 4 people to the ISS on each flight making it a cost of $17.5 million per astronaut to the ISS. The last seat an American had on Soyuz has been reported at $80 Million for 1 person. The Space Shuttle cost $350-450 Million per launch and despite its ability to carry up to 8 people it only ever delivered 3 to the ISS for a crew rotation but the others on a flight did stuff while there so its harder to cost but its safe to say it cost over $80 Million for each astronaut who stayed and did a stint on the ISS. However the Space shuttle could also deliver at the same time 16 tons of cargo to the ISS and that's basically 4-5 times Cargo Dragon. So when you consider the Space shuttle on each flight did the equivalent of 5-6 Falcon 9s its in the same ball park as Falcon 9. Here's the ugly comparison - Boeing Starliner the Boeing Max-8 of space flight. The Boeing Starliner which has had more than $550 Million in US Government money ($92M in 2011 and another $460M in 2012) for development is yet to fly successfully. According to Wikipedia Boeing has incurred costs between 2020 and 2022 of $883M and considering its cost plus contracting the US tax payer will eventually cop those costs. So for more than $1.3 Trillion (with a 't') the Boeing Starliner has flown twice for 1 failed mission and 1 partly failed mission. Basically Crew Dragon is NOT a major step forward or a revolutionary rocket. It is however an improvement on what NASA had especially following the demise of the Space Shuttle. Importantly compared to its main opposition (Starliner) it "looks" pretty magical but that's because Starliner really sucks. Crew Dragon is a step backwards so that NASA can go forwards. Thunderf00t has been around enough engineering project and research work to know that at times you simply have to step backwards because you've run into a wall. Going back to the SPACE SHUTTLE and heads up I did a comprehensive review of its history several years ago as part of the lessons learned section of a proposal. Its basic dry weight is 75 tons. So before you even give it people and cargo you have to lift 75t around 200km and then accelerate it to around 25,000 kmh. Those numbers get bigger going to the Space Station which is why its LEO payload is listed as 30t and its payload to the ISS is listed at 16t. So that 75t is a massive cost but it was sort of offset by reusability, but even that had issues. On top of those fuel costs the Space Shuttle required a lot more manpower to service it than first planned. Its one of the main reasons manned space flight stalled. All the things needed to go further and do things like build a lunar base needed people working on the technologies needed. Not only did the Space Shuttle consume money it also consumed the time people needed to do other things. THAT'S what made the Space Shuttle a failure. Technically it was an amazing achievement but for manned space flight it cost us 30-40 years. STARLINK It will fail just like the Iridium satellite phone system failed. Its a solution to a problem that does not exist. This is what kills many (what people think are) great ideas. If you are in a remote location it might provide a service but for anyone with an easy link to broad band then what does it offer? Plus the optic fibres that broad band is based on don't need to be replaced every few years in the same way the Starlink satellites drop out of orbit. Plus if you want to upgrade your broad band system Bob the Builder's mate Eric the Electro-tech can drive to the network hub and swap out the nodes. 🤷‍♂🤷‍♂ STARSHIP Not long after the Soviet Union collapsed the Russians released a trove of information on their lunar program based around the N-1 rocket. Go have a look at the arrangement of the motors in the N-1's first stage. YES Starship has a similar arrangement and when you know what the issues with the N-1 were, which I have known for over 20 years having read reviews on the N-1 back in the 1990s. The big problem the N-1 had was if they had a motor failure in the outer ring they needed to shut down the motor directly opposite or the off centre load would make the rocket uncontrollable. The Soviets had a system to do that automatically but it failed to work properly and the N-1 did a very similar thing to what we saw with Starship. Starship not only has the same inherent issue of the N-1 their control system for handling engine failures has the same issues the Russians had in the 1970s. Clearly that first flight showed it does NOT have the control range to handle the sorts of failures it had. But that's nothing. STARSHIP LAUNCH SITE. I have spent most of my engineering career in industrial control systems which has included safety systems. I had the second highest qualification available in that area at one stage. SO I AM FORMALLY TRAINED in assessing sites and systems for hazard identification, risk assessments and risk mitigation strategies. That launch site should never have been approved. for use. 1) The launch pad had no thrust diverter and when you consider the mass flow out of those engines (~26 tons per second at over 3.2km/s) and its just slamming into a flat surface. Look up the Wikipedia page for the N-1 and look at the size of the 3 exhaust tunnels. No one should have been surprised that the launch platform failed and chunks of concrete were ripped up and tossed 100s of meters. 2) Right beside the launch pad are the rocket fuel and oxygen storage tanks. If you look at the photos it had a small deflection barrier less than 1/2 the height of those tanks. That barrier means they expected rocket exhaust gases to head towards those tanks and they were left seriously exposed. On basic safety grounds that site should never have been allowed to be used for such a launch and quite possibly ANY LAUNCH. For anyone who wants to hold Gwynne Shotwell to account this is your opportunity. As the Chief Operating Officer and a highly qualified engineer she should KNOW BETTER should be held personally accountable. I have a pilots license and that's the sort of thing that gets airlines grounded and in some cases LOSE THEIR OPERATING LICENSE. SORRY to all this is as long as it is. I mostly agree with Thunerf00t and others like Common Sense Skeptic but I also think that a few things need better context. Especially that applies to comparing Crew Dragon to its competition which in the case of Boeing Starliner its a lot better than some people think, but I'd agree with anyone who says its neither revolutionary nor an ideal solution BUT IT DOES WORK.
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  11. WHICH CHANNEL are you talking about, he's actually pointing out at least 4 that I recognize. 3 of them Matt Ferrell, Alex Guberman (E for Electric) and Ricky (Two Bit da Vinci) are this new classification of social media type called "science communicators." In the past most science communicators where science people - physicists, chemists engineers, etc. These days a lot of them have NO SCIETIFIC qualifications or training. Its basically a fancy way of saying journalist who reports on technology. It does NOT mean they have ANY science background and for some it shows. Occasionally you'll see a person with genuine tech credentials stuffing up. The 4th guy shown here is Sandy Munro (the old guy just before 2 minutes) who actually is a real car guy and does know his stuff regarding cars and manufacturing them. I'd expect he's going to be making a retraction on this once he finds out its a dodgy technology. This vid actually highlights how bad most of the Science Communicators are. Even thunderf00t made a couple of mistakes here. 1: Early on he talks about there is no hydrogen in the atmosphere THAT'S NOT TRUE. There is free hydrogen in the atmosphere there's just not much of it. 2: Where thuderf00t talks about greenhouse gases at the end he's talking as if CO2 is the only green house gas which ITS NOT. Methane which is the main component of biogas like that found in sewers and waste treatment plants is an extremely potent greenhouse gas. In fact gram for gram its far more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2. Thunderf00t should know that. 3: On the positively charged subject. Yes Hydrogen gas (H2) is not positively charged. Yes free Hydrogen atoms (H2) are not positively charged. BUT hydrogen ATOMS stripped of their electron ARE positively charged. Thunderf00t should have also jumped on that because to create ionized hydrogen plasma takes energy and these guys are claiming there is no energy required. Where thunderf00t has this totally correct is the energy density, but even on that there is a point he missed. The only way these guys could claim they are getting the energy density is if they were capturing and storing the hydrogen as Metallic Hydrogen. If these people are claiming or even suggesting they are creating metallic hydrogen then that's even crazier than all the other claims put together.
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  13. I did aerospace engineering and I love your sentiments but unfortunately Thunderfoot is pretty much on with the costs. I love Elon's enthusiasm but what I hate are his ridiculous estimates and I am sorry to say they are ridiculous. On the super plus side of Elon is that he's broken Boeings strangle hold on NASA funding. One thing that's rarely discussed is the change in business model that happened AFTER Apollo. Prior to that pretty much all of the development programs delivered. The X-Plane programs delivered plane after plane. But during the 70s they just stopped ever delivering. Go check how many x-planes never flew in the 70s compared to the earlier programs. A rare exception was the X-29 forward sweep. What Boeing and others had worked out was that NOT completing NASA funded programs was more profitable than completing them. All they needed was to do enough to get the funding for next development project. One of my class mates ended up at NASA and is still there and years ago she told me about how the funding is decided. She also told me the 2 biggest problems they had with manned flight beyond LEO were life support and propulsion. Nearly 20 years later that hasn't changed. One of the great problems with a moon base or a Mars base is that we have dozens of technologies only part developed. Yes there's been lots of research and development but none of its actually ready. And some of those issues are huge. To keep humans alive they need water, food and breathable air. When Trump called for 4 men on the moon for 2 weeks what very few pointed out the enormous difference that was. The Apollo LM was capable of 75 hours life support for 2 guys - that's 150 man hours. 4 men for 2 weeks -> 4 x 24 x 14 = 1344 so its basically 9 or 10x the previous mission. And they have to fly all those materials to the moon and land them. Last I heard they skimmed it back to 3 guys on the moon for 10 days which means the lander only needs life support for 720 hours (3 x 24 x 10). That's way more practical as its basically half as much everything - oxygen, food & water. Just imagine Elon's 1000 people to Mars. That's 1000 people and all their food, water & oxygen for 6 months of flight and several more after they land while they get the systems on Mars up and running. If you can shorten the flight time by any amount its a big deal in terms of how much you have to launch. Yeah its all possible but we need billions and billions spent on the life support & propulsion. Maybe Elon or Jeff really has solved one of these problems if they have they aren't telling anyone.🤷‍♂️🤷‍♀️
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  16. I'm an aerospace engineer who's worked in automation for 30+ years and it F*CKING AGGRAVATES me that people are still misrepresenting robots and what they actually do. Anyone can just go and look up Fanuc, Kuka, Motoman, ABB, Staubli and other robotic companies and see what robots actually look like and what they actually do. First off robots (real industrial robots) are nothing like the BS crap that Hollywood makes out. One of the very things Hollywood got close was the original Terminator when it was described as having no feelings, no morals just a program. Second robots are damn heavy seriously heavy. They need mass or they're unstable and shake too much which can make them hard to do accurate work. The more spindly robots you see doing 3d printing get rigidity by the types of mechanisms they use. Third go watch the Canadarm its moves slowly so they can avoid inertia and accuracy issues. Those are less problematic in a factory on earth because we can bolt robots down to solid slabs of concrete. In space inertia and momentum are issues not so easily solved. Like many engineers I am truly over these snake oil salesmen. There are some really serious tasks right here on Earth that if we don't deal with SOON we are in deep shite. Forget climate for a moment almost every Western Developed Nation has serious infrastructure issues that if they aren't dealt with we risk major economic collapses. We don't need clowns wasting money and time on fantasy flights. I'd love it if we started a new major space station YESTERDAY, but I also realise that we have more important priorities.
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  29. I am an aerospace engineer and that's one of the better comments in this menagerie of social media shitfuckery. I'm mostly a fan of thunderf00t and what he exposes but I don't like his cheap shots at Gwynne Shotwell. He's always linking her to Elon's fantasies which isn't exactly fair. Yes she works for a clown, but thunderf00t needs to separate Falcon (& Crew Dragon) from Elon's fantasies of Starship & Mars. What he should be comparing Falcon & Crew Dragon to is Boeing's Starliner, which isn't easy because it hasn't flown a single successful mission and we don't know the costs. Thunderf00t mentions the Falcon & Crew Dragon at $60-70 million and that's a damn sight better than the space shuttle's $450million, which it was costing at the end. I've seen costs as high as $90 million for a single seat on Soyuz, but also closer to $20 million (for Denis Tito in 2001). So 4 Astronauts to the ISS for $70million is getting back to and under the 2001 Soyuz costs. THAT'S an IMPROVEMENT. Plus if you look at what she actually says there's nothing wrong technically with it. Reusable wont be that great until the usability is closer to a jet plane. I don't think it will ever get there with current materials and technology because your comparing something that goes into orbit, does 7km/s and then flies back down at Mach 20 reaching temperatures of several 1000 deg.C and the other just doesn't do that. IS tunderf00t 100% right on Gateway, John Blincow and Elon Musk? YEAH - ABSOLUTELY. IS he misrepresenting Gwynne Shotwell and what has been achieved with Falcon & Crew Dragon? Yeah, because he's linking that program to Elon & Starship instead of comparing it to Boeing Starliner or Soyuz.
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  32. ​ @jameskelly3502  Great point, YOU ARE RIGHT and I checked it out and there's an explanation. Here's the second paragraph of that press release. "This is a firm fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract modification for the Crew-10, Crew-11, Crew-12, Crew-13, and Crew-14 flights. The value of this modification for all five missions and related mission services is $1,436,438,446. The amount includes ground, launch, in-orbit, and return and recovery operations, cargo transportation for each mission, and a lifeboat capability while docked to the International Space Station. The period of performance runs through 2030 and brings the total CCtCap contract value with SpaceX to $4,927,306,350." SHOR EXPLANATION When people are talking about the US$70Million that's the LAUNCH. What you are talking about is the ENTIRE PROJECT with all the other stuff added in. As you can see there's a difference and quite often it can be a massive difference. Those 5 Crew Dragon missions average just under US$300million which means that on top of the $70M for the launch there's almost another $230M for each flight. This is not simply a NASA problem. Its actually a major problem with projects EVERYWHERE. For Example: Right now in Australia (as I'll explain) we have the AUKUS submarine project. The current Block 5 Virginia subs have a cost AUD$5 Billion each. The project cost for the 8 subs is AU$33-46 Billion each. From what information that's available there's AU$20-32 Billion for each sub that is currently unaccounted for. LONGER EXPLANATION and again I am Sorry to all if this if this is long. With almost every wonderful announcement the devil is in the details and the magic words in that announcement are indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity and related mission services. BACKGROUND I'm Australian but did my degree in America. It was in the late 80s during Reagan's Star Wars Program. Most of the department was on DARPA funding as were most of the postgrads. We all sort of new it was BS but we liked the funding and a lot of people got their MS & PhDs. I came back to Australia afterwards which wasn't good timing and I ended up in industrial control systems, automation and robotics. In 2002 I met Apollo 17's Harrison Schmitt and he mentioned Helium-3, which meant we might be going back to the moon for mining. So I thought I'd go off to the Australian Mining sector and get some experience building mines so I could then do the same on the Moon. Yeah I know that didn't work out, but what I got was an education in large multi-billion dollar contracting jobs and how contractors milk them for all they are worth. I also learned how to build complex systems in remote places and I know NASAs plans for a lunar base are crap because of these very issues of "other stuff." Its not only in engineering and in fact the worst cases In Australia are in government department consulting. Go and check out the PwC scandal. ISSUES WITH ENGINEERING and COST PLUSS CONTRACTS 1 mine site I worked on was the BHP Ravensthorpe Nickel project. Now you'd think BHP the largest mining company in the world would know how to get a mine built - WRONG. That job was budgeted at AU$1.5 Billion and ended up costing over AU$3.5 Billion and then they found out that someone had skimped on the drilling program and the ore body was nowhere near what they had expected in either quality or quantity. WHERE it really blew out was the cost plus contracting. We had an electrician just not show for work one day on that project. He turned up at dinner time in the mess wearing another companies shirt and proudly announced he was getting an extra AU$10 and hour. Working 60+ hours a week, which you do on site that adds up to a lot of money. Within days other electricians were being snapped up in similar ways and the pay rate went from about AU$35/hr to AU$65/hr in about a week as people bounced from company to company. For those who have never worked on cost plus contracting it goes like this. You have expenses (labor & stuff) and you hand them in and if the contract is cost plus 20% (which is common) then for every $1 of expense you get $1.20 in cash back. The reason why cost plus happens is that for large projects that go for several years you just cant plan everything. They can be made to work but the managers running them have to know what they are doing. This is why we see so many government and private sector projects blow out on their costs. So when those electricians went from AU$35/hr to AU$65/hr their actual employers went from charging about $60/hr to over $100/hr. Here's where that adds up. If you have a 100 people and they suddenly cost an extra $10 that gets passed onto the company and they return (at 20%) $12 for which means your profit margin just went up $200 per hour. So with something like SpaceX every time NASA makes an adjustment to a mission it means extra profit to SpaceX and its in their interests as a commercial company to max out those expenses. Here in Australia we have a litany of projects both in the government and in the private sector that have blown out with some projects going billions over budget. The worst private sector project I heard of was the Gorgon Gas project which blew out by $15 Billion. You'd think Chevron would know their job and know how to manage a project BUT THEY DIDN'T. The Australian Navy is not only buying submarines but new frigates and that project recently jumped from AUD$30 Billion to AUD$45 Billion. These things happen from contract variations and that word "variation" is the sound of cash being printed to a cost+ contractor. MORE EXAMPLES Back in the day before the ISS came into being there was the Space Station Freedom project. Me and Classmates all believed that was what we'd be building before heading back to the Moon. The 1st budget was USD$20 Billon and VP George Bush told them that was too expensive and to redesign it. The 2nd budget was USD$30 Billon and VP George Bush told them stop being ridiculous. The 3rd budget was USD$40 Billion and VP George Bush scrapped it, but not before a lot of money got spent doing those design studies. In the end the ISS cost America $120 Billion to build and I think the current estimate puts it over $220 Billion so far when you add in the operations AND NOBODY has ever explained where its all gone. The F35 program cost over a $Trillion in development AND NOBODY has ever explained where its all gone. Here in Oz other than submarines and frigates we also have a patrol boat project underway. The previous class cost under AUD$30 Million each and these new ones are AUD$300 Million each - more than 10x the cost to do the same job AND NOBODY can explain the costs. As part of Australia's AUKUS submarine project there was a AU$4.3 Billion dollar upgrade to facilities at the base near Perth. Knowing what they are basically doing I checked with a couple of people I know and that project shouldn't cost more than AU$1 Billion. Just 2 days ago they announced new plans and its now budgeted at AU$8 Billion with NO EXPLANTION what this extra AU$3.7 Billion is for let alone what most of the AU$4.3 was for. BACK TO FALCON 9/CREW DRAGON We know the cost of each Falcon 9 Crew Dragon launch is $70 Million but what you have shown is a fundamental problem in all these sorts of contracts. There's a lot more than just the basic costs than can be itemised and a lot of it we know nothing about. So you are right there's a lot more, but when we are comparing apples to apples we have to compare what we can. The reason we talk about the at $70 Million is because we know its real and we can compare it to other things. We know the Shuttle flights cost US$350-450 million each, but that doesn't include the development and operational costs. We know the Soyuz seats at the end cost US$80 million each but we don't know what other costs with training (including language training) were incurred. Hope that all explains it.
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  36.  @grantadamson3478  Its was actually the classmate who's at NASA you should thank. About 20 years ago I was the one being mouthy and very "Elon like," and she rammed some hard truths back down my throat. What I am really frustrated with the se days is the very same problems THEN are still the same problems we have NOW. Half the problem is that we take so much of what nature does in terms of life support. No matter how you want to consider it - if we want manned spaceflight beyond LEO the life support is an absolute. Only 24 men have been beyond LEO and they did it in equipment that was incredibly limited. Its just kept them alive and just got there and only just got back. One reason why they stopped was they were afraid of losing a crew. By 1972 they really had pushed their luck with 1960s technology. One analogy I like to use for the moon is a remote mine site here on Earth. I actually met Harrison Schmitt (Apollo 17) in 2002 and he told me we were headed back tot he moon to mine it for He3. So I went off into the Australian mining industry for some hard on the ground experience with remote mining. The actual number of similarities between the Australian Outback and the Moon are more than you'd think. For starters the first thing is a long range survey (Satellite & aerial) kind of like they did with the Ranger & Mariner probes. Then they do an on the ground survey with a couple of geologists and an SUV. They go out with all their food, water & supplies check the place out and come home with a few samples. The only go for a few days or weeks. Then they send out drilling crews for deeper exploration. The big difference at that point is the amount of equipment and men and supplies and for the first time accommodation, water storage, toilets, showers, communications and power generation. They don't simply go for a few days - they go for weeks. Some stay out there for months. If they find a suitable site with suitable resources then they go with huge amounts of gear. They send in a cast of 1000s to build a mine, the processing plant, the trucks, diggers, more accommodation, more water, more sewerage, more of everything. All that infrastructure takes time effort and construction people and construction equipment. Apollo was just like those couple of geologists doing the on the ground survey who bring back samples from site. The Apollo LM was like a space SUV, but for the next phase we need trucks not SUVs. I can build a mine site here only using SUVs but it would take 1000s of trips. What we need next is the space equivalent of a Kenworth and I don't know if Elon's new rocket is a Kenworth or just a bigger SUV. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♀️
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  43.  @trashkumaneko4539  The Germans (as part of ESA) are actually working on it. They are doing an isolated lab in the Antarctic at the moment. But the top top guy on complex bio-systems is a guy named Jonathon Trent. He's done a few TEDx talks and other more complex lectures on YT. He recently left NASA after 20years and started promoting what he calls "Up-Cycling" as something different to recycling. From his NASA work he was involve din bio-processes where they converted human waste back into usable materials (food, air, etc.) In simplest terms humans generally downcycle in that they take raw materials and through various process produce waste. Upcycling is where you take biological processes to "Up-Cycle" waste back into raw materials. Its the other side of the biological cycles that mother earth does for us every day. Composting (what gardeners do) is a simple from of an up-cycle process in that takes waste and with bacteria and worms shifts it back up the scale into raw plant food. Photosynthesis is an up-cycle process in that it takes our waste C02 and converts it back into raw O2 for us to breath. Basically, moon and Mars bases can't happen without the sort of work he was doing. What he is into now is doing some of that work and using it to drive food and energy production here in our societies. Instead of simply dumping all our waste into old quarries he wants to fuel society with it. What they worked out is for Moon & Mars bases the shit out of your ass is one of the most valuable resources those bases will have if its used properly. The human gut is great for turning raw material into actively biological raw material that other processes can then use.
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  59. HEY THUNDERFOOT YOU MADE A MISTAKE. I work in Industrial control systems, automation and robotics. Those 2 robots you show at 37:30 have been available for AT LEAST 25 YEARS. The company I left in 2001 was the (then) Kuka and Adept agent in Australia and we knew what our competitors could do. The robot on the left of your shot is a standard 6 axis anthropomorphic arm and those have been around for decades. The robot on the right is a 4-axis "Spider Robot" (just put "4-axis spider robot into google"). I know that BEFORE the year 2000 ABB had one of those available. The thing that you are NOT highlighting in that part of the video is that the spider robot is locating the items its picking off the conveyor using vision guided robotics. Notice how all those parts are randomly arranged and the spider is arranging them in organised groups so the other robot can place them on the next conveyor. There is a camera upstream of the robot looking down on the conveyor which has an encoder on it. The vision system identifies the location and orientation of each part and with the encoder on the conveyor translates that to the Spider which can then pick it up and orientate it and put it back down in the right place so the other robot can pick up the groups of 4 parts. I know how that stuff works because I had that technology demonstrated to me by an Adept Engineer when I visited their Cincinnati Office in 1998 or 99. They weren't using a Spider robot at that time. They were using a small high speed SCARA robot. So I know for a fact that technology has been available for AT LEAST 25 YEARS. So SORRY Thunderboy but your 15 years is wrong its at least 25. Fyi - I actually did aerospace and if you would like I'd be happy to show you how truly stupid they are being with the Artemis program. Its worse than most people realise. The closest I have seen anyone expose the real depth of the issue is Destin (another Aerospace) who has the YT channel "Smarter Every Day." For anyone interested put "smarter every day artemis" into the YT search and the top item should be titled "I Was SCARED To Say This To NASA... (But I said it anyway) - Smarter Every Day 293" posted 4 Dec 2023.
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  61. ENGINEER HERE: Normally I would agree 100% with Thunderf00t, but there is a major problem he has missed with the whole carbon capture system and there's simply NO WAY to power it. EVERY VERSION of CARBON CAPTURE REQUIRES ENERGY and by far the single biggest issue facing society right now is energy. I first became aware of the energy issue during a small consulting job in 2016 into Australia's (my country's) future energy needs. Ignoring other things Australia has 22.6 GW of coal fired power to be replaced. Just like many other countries there is no way around this BECAUSE they are OLD and WEARING OUT and HAVE TO BE REPLACED ANYWAY. That build out also has to be double that amount because of population growth. Using Hinkley Point C which is the nuclear power station being constructed in Britain we can get the cost of what it would take Australia to replace that 22.6GW with LOW EMISSION nuclear. Its AU$440 Billion but when you add in expected population growth that doubles to AU$880 Billion. Then when you add in the extra power needed for all the electric cars we want it goes over AU$ 1 Trillion. When you add the power grid upgrades needed it costs around AU$2 TRILLION. I AM NOT AGAINST NUCLEAR POWER but I am calling you and many others out on what it actually costs to do what the job that exists will take. If its going to cost Australia AU$2 Trillion what do you think its going to cost all the other countries around the world with similar problems? Simply put the CO2 removal from the atmosphere has to be done with A LOW ENERGY SYSTEM and I am sorry but that means trees. YES I AGREE with Thunderf00t 100% that doing this with trees will take a monumental world encompassing program and that none of the tree hugging Greenies understand SHlT about what it will take, but trees don't need to be plugged into anything because they're solar powered. At a basic concept it means something like every person on the planet planting 1,000 trees and hoping that 1 in 10 make it to maturity. But those 800 Billion trees that survive to maturity should capture several Trillion tons of Carbon over the next 20-30 years and we need to be thinking about and talking on a level of Trillions of tons. Just so none of you think I'm crazy Statista has the global emissions on graph going from 1940 to 2022. It took the 44 years from 1940 to 1984 to emit 500 Million tons. It took the 21 years to 2005 to emit the second 500 Million tons (making 1 Trillion tons) It took the 15 years to 2020 for the next 500 Million tons making it 1.5 trillion tons of cumulative emissions since 1940. At the current rate of 37 Billion tons a year we'll reach 2 Trillion tons of cumulative emissions around 2033. Sorry TF (and I love your channel) but nobody's mechanical or chemical carbon capture solution is going to work if its needs energy and trees don't need to be plugged in to a power station to work. They only require muscle energy to plant them.
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  67. As an aerospace engineer this totally craps me out and for a slightly different reason than most here might think. My gripe isn't so much that these things (like Hyperloop) are garbage its that they are preventing people from SpaceX and Tesla form appreciating the incredible achievements of others. There are some great people in these companies doing great work and getting no recognition or credit. At Space X the achievement of actually getting a rocket that can fly humans into space (Crew Dragon & Falcon 9) is extraordinary. If you compare it to Boeing's effort with Starliner and take into consideration the resources and experience Boeing has access too then it really is an extraordinary achievement. BUT THEN Elon comes along with the idiotic garbage of going to Mars on Starship. I don't understand how it can be the same company. On transport its the same. I spent many years in the Australian automotive sector and for Tesla to actually have the effect it has on the entire car industry is borderline miraculous. Yes there's some issues with the cars, but then every major manufacturer has had recalls. Tesla's a long way short of the VW diesel fake engine emissions fiasco. The fact Tesla is manufacturing and selling several 100 thousand cars each year is incredible and it has changed the world. Unless you have a actually been in the industry its hard to explain just how hard it is just getting a new model into production. One of the main companies I worked with was Hella and the effort it took just for a new headlight & taillight on an EXISTING car was a huge effort. So taking a completely new vehicle and getting it into mass production is an extraordinary achievement BUT THEN Elon comes along with a truck he claims will pull a load from 0 to 60 mph in 6.5 seconds. AND THEN Elon comes along with driver less cars, taxis and trucks. AND THEN Elon comes along with Hyperloop, a 118 year old idea (Robert Goddard 1904) and claims he thought it up. AND THEN Elon comes along AFTER Hyperloop is exposed and NO its not trains in tunnels its cars in tunnels. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♀️
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  75. Aerospace engineer here - and that's the sort of reply I wish we'd see more often. The best report on G0F I saw in the last 4 years was by DW (German). It still here on YT and titled "Gain-of-Function: Should supercharging viruses be banned?" They bring up what Ron Fouchier the Dutch scientist did with Avian Flu and it didn't take much to find out what he did AND HOW DAMN SCARY IT IS. Normally avian flu can't infect humans but the rare times it does its more lethal than Ebola killing over 60%. What was even crazier than making that variant of avian flu was that he wanted to publish how he did it. The Dutch government stepped in and said "NO". He took it to court and the court also said "NO" because like the Dutch government they knew there were people on this planet who'd use it. It was Fouchier's work that (in part) led to the moratorium on GoF, because NOBODY was really aware of what was being done in some of these labs. As an engineer I know quite well how very intelligent people can sometimes be utterly blind to the outside world and Fouchier is an example of that. It became well know that Shi Zhengli (the head virologist) in Wuhan was also like that. Plus Wuhan became the go to place where certain work could still be doen despite the moratorium. I'm amazed that after all that has happened we haven't had a proper public discussion on research funding and the oversight of research. I know there's stuff that's been going on in engineering research for decades that should either be shut down or NOT be funded because its either a waste of time and resources or that its too dangerous or that there's significant fraud going on.
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  76. AEROSPACE ENGINEER HERE: Just some perspective on Crew Dragon and SORRY that this is long. First I absolutely agree that there's massive issues with Elon Musk and how he does business that's perfectly obvious. There's also no doubt the Gwynne Shotwell has said some dumb things which Thunderf00t and others have pointed out. I am also of the same opinion that both Starlink and Starship are doomed to fail (see below). If we are going to fairly judge Falcon9/Crew Dragon then it needs to be compared against its actual competition. You pointed out that a Falcon9 launch costs $67 Million. I have seen Crew Dragon costed at $70 Million. Crew Dragon delivers 4 people to the ISS on each flight making it a cost of $17.5 million per astronaut to the ISS. The last seat an American had on Soyuz has been reported at $80 Million for 1 person. The Space Shuttle cost $350-450 Million per launch and despite its ability to carry up to 8 people it only ever delivered 3 to the ISS for a crew rotation but the others on a flight did stuff while there so its harder to cost but its safe to say it cost over $80 Million for each astronaut who stayed and did a stint on the ISS. However the Space shuttle could also deliver at the same time 16 tons of cargo to the ISS and that's basically 4-5 times Cargo Dragon. So when you consider the Space shuttle on each flight did the equivalent of 5-6 Falcon 9s its in the same ball park as Falcon 9. Here's the ugly comparison - Boeing Starliner the Boeing Max-8 of space flight. The Boeing Starliner which has had more than $550 Million in US Government money ($92M in 2011 and another $460M in 2012) for development is yet to fly successfully. According to Wikipedia Boeing has incurred costs between 2020 and 2022 of $883M and considering its cost plus contracting the US tax payer will eventually cop those costs. So for more than $1.3 Trillion (with a 't') the Boeing Starliner has flown twice for 1 failed mission and 1 partly failed mission. Basically Crew Dragon is NOT a major step forward or a revolutionary rocket. It is however an improvement on what NASA had especially following the demise of the Space Shuttle. Importantly compared to its main opposition (Starliner) it "looks" pretty magical but that's because Starliner really sucks. Crew Dragon is a step backwards so that NASA can go forwards. Thunderf00t has been around enough engineering project and research work to know that at times you simply have to step backwards because you've run into a wall. Going back to the SPACE SHUTTLE and heads up I did a comprehensive review of its history several years ago as part of the lessons learned section of a proposal. Its basic dry weight is 75 tons. So before you even give it people and cargo you have to lift 75t around 200km and then accelerate it to around 25,000 kmh. Those numbers get bigger going to the Space Station which is why its LEO payload is listed as 30t and its payload to the ISS is listed at 16t. So that 75t is a massive cost but it was sort of offset by reusability, but even that had issues. On top of those fuel costs the Space Shuttle required a lot more manpower to service it than first planned. Its one of the main reasons manned space flight stalled. All the things needed to go further and do things like build a lunar base needed people working on the technologies needed. Not only did the Space Shuttle consume money it also consumed the time people needed to do other things. THAT'S what made the Space Shuttle a failure. Technically it was an amazing achievement but for manned space flight it cost us 30-40 years. STARLINK It will fail just like the Iridium satellite phone system failed. Its a solution to a problem that does not exist. This is what kills many (what people think are) great ideas. If you are in a remote location it might provide a service but for anyone with an easy link to broad band then what does it offer? Plus the optic fibres that broad band is based on don't need to be replaced every few years in the same way the Starlink satellites drop out of orbit. Plus if you want to upgrade your broad band system Bob the Builder's mate Eric the Electro-tech can drive to the network hub and swap out the nodes. 🤷‍♂🤷‍♂ STARSHIP Not long after the Soviet Union collapsed the Russians released a trove of information on their lunar program based around the N-1 rocket. Go have a look at the arrangement of the motors in the N-1's first stage. YES Starship has a similar arrangement and when you know what the issues with the N-1 were, which I have known for over 20 years having read reviews on the N-1 back in the 1990s. The big problem the N-1 had was if they had a motor failure in the outer ring they needed to shut down the motor directly opposite or the off centre load would make the rocket uncontrollable. The Soviets had a system to do that automatically but it failed to work properly and the N-1 did a very similar thing to what we saw with Starship. Starship not only has the same inherent issue of the N-1 their control system for handling engine failures has the same issues the Russians had in the 1970s. Clearly that first flight showed it does NOT have the control range to handle the sorts of failures it had. But that's nothing. STARSHIP LAUNCH SITE. I have spent most of my engineering career in industrial control systems which has included safety systems. I had the second highest qualification available in that area at one stage. SO I AM FORMALLY TRAINED in assessing sites and systems for hazard identification, risk assessments and risk mitigation strategies. That launch site should never have been approved. for use. 1) The launch pad had no thrust diverter and when you consider the mass flow out of those engines (~26 tons per second at over 3.2km/s) and its just slamming into a flat surface. Look up the Wikipedia page for the N-1 and look at the size of the 3 exhaust tunnels. No one should have been surprised that the launch platform failed and chunks of concrete were ripped up and tossed 100s of meters. 2) Right beside the launch pad are the rocket fuel and oxygen storage tanks. If you look at the photos it had a small deflection barrier less than 1/2 the height of those tanks. That barrier means they expected rocket exhaust gases to head towards those tanks and they were left seriously exposed. On basic safety grounds that site should never have been allowed to be used for such a launch and quite possibly ANY LAUNCH. For anyone who wants to hold Gwynne Shotwell to account this is your opportunity. As the Chief Operating Officer and a highly qualified engineer she should KNOW BETTER should be held personally accountable. I have a pilots license and that's the sort of thing that gets airlines grounded and in some cases LOSE THEIR OPERATING LICENSE. SORRY to all this is as long as it is. I mostly agree with Thunerf00t and others like Common Sense Skeptic but I also think that a few things need better context. Especially that applies to comparing Crew Dragon to its competition which in the case of Boeing Starliner its a lot better than some people think, but I'd agree with anyone who says its neither revolutionary nor an ideal solution BUT IT DOES WORK.
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  78.  @Lucien86  You misunderstood my reference comparing Stockton Rush to Elon Musk. It has NOTHING to do with things like Falcon or Falcon Heavy. It has to do with Elon the PERSON not handling people who disagree with him for which there's a mountain of evidence. You don't have to lecture me on Falcon I actually defend that part of Space X. There's a contingent of people who just love to bash Space X along with Elon and they hate it when I correct them. Falcon has been a staggering success. YES it is NOT the mind blowing leap forward in rockets that Elon harps on about. In fact most of what it does was done long before Elon or Space X ever existed. I regard the Space Shuttle as a successful failure. It was successful in that they made it work. It was a catastrophic failure in that 2 crashed and its costs were nothing like that promised. What SpaceX has done is take a step back, a step sideways and a step forward. So its no giant advancement but it is something that has allowed NASA to get back to having its own system. Also Gwynne Shotwell gets a lot of flack and occasionally its warranted when she parrots Elon. The basic reality is that her and her team have built a reliable and reusable rocket. They have then got it man rated and successfully sent people into space. What the SpaceX detractors seem to ignore is that without Crew Dragon NASA and the Western Partners in the ISS are at the mercy of the Russians and the Russians were upping the price. Also the Elon detractors who bash SpaceX never hold Boeing to the same scrutiny and their system deserves to be panned. Boeing got a lot more money than SpaceX to develop a crew system. They took a lot longer and so far there system has being Boeing Reliable which is now a meme. So understand I am a huge fan of Gwynne Shotwell and her team and the Falcon program. Yes they took a lot longer to get up to Crew Dragon compared to what NASA did in the 60s but then they had staggering resources during the 60s. People forget just how many people they threw at the Apollo program. I think it was around 400,000 and they weren't just who you could find and recruit they were the best of the best that America had. On the other hand I can't stand Elon Musk and his BS. He does have 2 talents that he's seriously underestimated on. 1) He knows how to get non-technical people to respond to an idea. As in he can sell an idea to an audience like he has with Starlink which is just another "who really needs, other than the people selling it, technology." 2) He can also identify technical people who can get a task done which he's shown at SpaceX. On that in particular he's seriously misunderstood. BUT when he forgets to get the right people or he ignores them like he did at Neuralink, Hyperloop and a few other places it becomes a disaster.
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  80.  @Thunderf00t  I don't know if you saw my last comment on the other video, but I do control systems and one of my main projects between 2006 & 2011 was an industrial bio-conversion plant in Perth, Western Australia that processed Municipal Solid Waste (NSW). As a Brit I'll assume you know where Perth is. Sorry if this is a lengthy reply but if you want any further material I'll see what I can get you. Keep up the good work. I just hate technology scammers. I don't know if in your work you've had to deal with a control system engineers but I have to deal with all types of engineers and technologists - mechanical, chemical and in that case microbiologists. Early on I asked what made their process special so I got an personalized education in the microbiology of composting. My job wasn't to make the bacteria do its funky stuff it was to build a control system that included the tools to let the microbiologists make the bacteria do its funky stuff. So there are many details about the bacteria I never was privy to. It was just this stuff they called "water" except it was dark brown and smelt awful. I'd describe it as biologically active liquor. Their process was pretty novel in how fast it worked (21 days). In the natural environment composting can take anywhere from months to years depending on all sorts of factors - the microorganism types (worms, slugs, etc.), bacteria types (single cell bugs), temperature, moisture, oxygen levels, existing soil type, light or lack of light,.... etc. The list is quite lengthy. That's not that great for industrial processes where they want consistency. Most of the OTHER processes developed did things like heap up the compost into mounds out in paddocks and left to ferment in situ. That releases lots of stuff (CO2, CH4,.... etc.). Other places simply dumped it into an unused quarry or open cut mine and cap it with a giant rubber sheet and tap the gas as its produced. Other processes munch/mince it all up and put it into silos so they can tap off the combustibles like methane. If not watched those silos can get so hot they catch on fire. In these processes you do get more than methane. I know I had to engineer the electrical system to handle hydrogen. There wasn't much of it but there was enough to influence the electrical design because hydrogen ignites so easily. And yes many of the clowns promoting hydrogen have no idea. Mostly those systems that put compost into silos and leave it alone take 60-90 days (not hours) to decompose a batch into compost. The variation mainly comes from the time of year. Municipal waste has EVERYTHING we put in the wheely bins - food waste, cloth, plastics, metals, grass clippings, leaves,.... etc. So just giving people the impression that Lomi can provide "composted" material in 4 hours is pretty much garbage. The company I was working with had come up with a way to handle the seasonal changes and make the process extremely rapid by tailoring the bacterial decomp. They could do a batch of the organic fraction of municipal waste in 21 days complete cycle. Raw waste came in and was smashed in a giant tumbling garbage smasher. Almost a Lomi on Superman level steroids. After that the metals, sand, glass and plastics were removed and finally it was loaded into a vessel (about 4-5 stories high) where it was introduced to the bacteria. At that stage there was oxygen and the process was aerobic and produced CO2. After the vessel was full it was sealed and once the bacteria had finished consuming all the oxygen was when the real magic started. Certain bacteria are not like mammals, birds, etc. When the oxygen runs out they don't die they switch their metabolism. In a sealed container that process is gradual and we could watch it happen on the gas analyzer data. The bacteria would start consuming organics and oxygen producing C02 but as the oxygen ran out it would switch and start consuming organics and CO2 producing methane and a few other hydrocarbons. Eventually the bacteria would consume all it could. We'd see that on the gas analyzer as methane had stopped being produced. After that we reintroduced air and with it oxygen. Since this step was abrupt rather than gradual the sudden introduction of oxygen would kill the bacteria. After a few days of aeration all that was left was sterile very high quality compost. All Lomi is, is the first step in a process like that. Its just a smashing and grinding machine. *Laughably you can do the same thing with an old blender or nutri-bullet for a lot less than $500. Just blend up your scraps with some water and put it all in a cloth bag. Squeeze out the water and/or hang it somewhere to drain like they do for cheese making. Put the drained off water on you plants because it will have all sorts of organics. Then put the mashed up stuff in a composter and let nature do its stuff. That or spend $20-40 million and build a system like I worked on.
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  82.  @herrschaftg35  YES - I am well aware of the IEA data and have been following their reports for a few years now. That's NOT the point the point is the cost of the NEXT GENERATION of power stations NO MATTER WHAT THEY ARE is going to be astronomical. PARTLY because material shortages are going to keep prices high. PARTLY because the corporations who build large scale stuff are completely out of control on standards, profits and tax. PARTLY because the giant wealth shift of the last 40 years has broken every economic system in the developed world. PARTLY because we have driven 80% of our populations into Universities instead of balancing our education across the skill base we need. WORST OF ALL - a whole bunch of nations are going to try and do this at the same time which will send specialist labor and material costs even higher. Do you get where I am going? There's a bunch of factors coalescing into a MEGA-SHlTSTORM because of 40+ years of "Greed is good" stupidity. I tell my fellow Australians that we don't have any of the people we'd need to build just 1 nuclear power station let alone the 8 or more we'd need and their answer is just like its been for cars, TVs and mobile phones - "We'll buy from overseas!" PROBLEM IS EVERYONE ELSE is also in the same situation and they need their people at home doing the work they need done. Simon Michaux who I mostly agree with until it gets to the subject of what to do next recently said and I AGRRE 100% with him on this point. He basically said: "Its not that we can't do the energy transition but we need a better plan."
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  97. Aerospace Engineer - Your 100% right on the first point and sort of maybe on the second. Like Thunderf00t I had my time in Academia but actually walked away from my PhD Scholarship in disgust at the behavior of my supervisors. Mine just simply admitted to financial fraud to my face one day. I've spent the last 30+ years in industrial control systems and automation across a bunch of industries mostly manufacturing and mining. On one hand I absolutely agree that Elon Musk is a techno-charlatan BUT the reason he's got away with it is because he's actually done a couple of good things. I spent a chunk of my career building small production cells for the Australian automotive sector and I can tell that entire sector needed a super monster kick in the arse. In some ways its a brilliant industry and in others its easily one of the worst run industries on the planet. Mining is worse by the way. Sorry to all but, its an inescapable fact, that Tesla has shaken the automotive industry and given it the kick it needed. Love him or hate him it can't be denied, but that doesn't mean Elon is innocent either. All the stupid claims about FSD technology and other stuff was crap and garbage and he deserves all the scorn he gets for it. On the SpaceX front there's also a giant hit and miss. The Falcon rockets which Elon had effectively zero to do with have been a gigantic success. Its even more obvious when its compared to Boeing Starliner which so far has had 2 partially successful uncrewed test flights. Despite being originally scheduled for its first crewed flight in 2017 is yet to fly a person anywhere. Meanwhile Crew Dragon had 3 successful test flights followed by a manned test flight followed by 9 successful crewed missions a with 2 more crewed missions currently attached to the ISS. On the flip side just to show Elon is stupid. He's had little to do with Falcon & Crew Dragon, but been heavily involved with Starship and that's almost as bad as Boeing's Starliner. I wont go into it because its pages long. I'd say Elon has 2 things he very good at. 1) Identifying people who are technically very good at their job. Without that Tesla and SpaceX would have nothing. 2) Identifying what the non-technically trained general public will latch onto as the next super technology. In that respect he's like PT Barnum, the Warner Brothers, Walt Disney, Vince McMahon and many of the other entertainment industry leaders have been like - Elon knows what the general public will buy into.
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  100. AEROSPACE ENGINEER HERE: Playing a little bit of devils advocate and NOT defending the BULLSHlIT. Elon has done a couple of very good things BUT THEY DO NOT excuse all this nonsense and garbage that just wastes everyone's time. 1) TESLA has dragged the car industry off its collective butt and made them move on from ICE (Internal Combustion Engines). Having worked in the automotive industry they are an industry that is incredibly slow at innovation. That comes from how much it now costs to develop any new car. A previous client of mine was Hella the head and tail light manufacturer. Just the tooling for things like head lights can run into millions of dollars. Its why they quite often reuse one cars headlights or tail lights on another car. A famous example of that were the Toyota Corolla tail lights on the Lotus Esprit. So for ANYONE to get the main stream auto sector to shift is nothing to be belittled. THAT SAID - Elon has also MONSTROUSLY MISLEAD people over things like self driving cars and whether its even possible to make enough batteries to replace 1.5 Billion ICE cars with hybrid or electric or the 500 million ICE trucks in the world. 2) SPACEX has similarly dragged manned space flight out of the multi-decade failure of the Space Shuttle. YES the Space Shuttle might have been an amazing technical achievement but it was a long term disaster because of how much it sucked up in both in money and manhours. That's why going back to the Moon hasn't happened. The Space Shuttle consumed the money and instead of people doing lunar projects they were working on keeping the Space Shuttle flying. If you want to fairly compare Crew Dragon then compare it to Boeing's Starliner which was funded in parallel to Crew Dragon. DESPITE the same level of funding and development time Starliner is yet to fly a single crewed mission, while Crew Dragon currently has 4 active vehicles C206 Endeavor (4 flights), C207 Resilience (2 flights), C210 Endurance (3 flights) and 212 Freedom (2 flights). Despite the fact that Crew Dragon is not very innovative and can even be considered a technological step backwards from the Space Shuttle it also saved the manned space program from OBLIVION, which is more of an indictment on the entire program than it is a gold star for SpaceX. On the other SpaceX's Starship, that really is the joke that Thunderf00t and others describe. As for Elon's Mars proposals they're so bad they make the worst 1950's sci-fi films look like inspired documentaries. If Thunderf00t did wants to do a video with me on the whole "Can Mars be terraformed?" subject then I'm IN, because despite the fact I will defend a couple of Elon's successes I am farking tired of his nonsense. FYI - back in 1987 a NASA engineer gave me and my fellow classmates a special lecture on the project he'd just finished at NASA on terraforming. YES back in 1987 NASA had worked out how much bunk terraforming Mars was and I'd be happy to explain what he said.
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  102. I'm an aerospace engineer and there's 2 points I like to remind people of just so the Muskrats don't go screaming and howling and claiming we are BLIND. And being fair there is a very mixed bag when we objectively look at Musk and his companies. 1) SpaceX did an amazing thing in breaking through the barriers to the space launch business that companies like Boeing dominated. We tend to forget that Boeing got more money to help develop Starliner which is yet to have a 100% successful flight. Crew Dragon in my view is a very good success. Its not ideal but it did get NASA back into flying its own astronauts from its own facilities back into space without having to fly via the Russians. HOWEVER that success does not and will never excuse Elon's stupidity over the Mars fantasy or idiocy on other space related things like Starship. YES my view of Starship is the complete opposite of Crew Dragon because Crew Dragon fulfilled an actual need while Starship does what other than pump Elon's ego? 2) Tesla did an amazing thing by becoming a successful EV manufacturer. I have worked in the Auto sector and getting that sector to change anything is staggeringly hard and yet Tesla go that entire industry to change. HOWEVER when you look at Elon's actual involvement in the development its been disastrous. There's a court case between Martin Eberhard one of the actual founders (with Marc Tarpenning) that's been covered by the YT channel Common Sense Skeptic. The really obvious thing is Cybertruck. That's not something Elon can blame on anyone else. The real tragedy in my view is that there's some fantastic engineers in both SpaceX and Tesla who have done some amazing work. Unfortunately its likely they will never get any credit because Elon will take that from them and once Elon does trash his empire the reputation of those people will also be trashed.
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  117. That is such a great line and the full quote is even better "a scream of defiance against weaponized stupidity and the influences of ignorance." I'm an aerospace engineer and the staggering amount of ignorance in the media on reporting almost everything in technology is staggering. I'm Australian but did my degree in America in the late 80s during the Reagan Star Wars era. We worked out back then that the whole energy weapons zapping ballistic missiles was NEVER GOING TO WORK. The classic was that lasers bounce off shiny surfaces. Even if you can deliver the energy required you have vehicles moving at insane speeds and the task of being able to identify track predict and target accurately anything is incredibly hard. Yet just recently here in Australia the head of our "space force" announced they would be pursuing "soft kill" technologies for satellites and the media jumped on it like they have with the word "hypersonic." The ignorant mass of Australia egged on by the clickbait brigade in the media are preparing to spend several billion dollars on junk science that CANNOT EVER WORK. And that's just one of the idiotically stupid things we are up to. Every other developed nation is also doing similarly stupid things. Other than the media a major problem is the consulting industry who just drown the business world and governments under mountains of BS. Go look up British-Italian economist Mariana Mazzucato who's recently written a book called "the big con" about the consulting industry. There's a bunch of talks she's given here on YT about the subject of the consulting industry and how pervasive it is.
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  124. Answers below Just in case you thought I was being facetious. 1) There's a very thin film of plastic. What's odd about the process is that for a plastic process its done at much higher temperature than injection molding so that it sticks to the paper/cardboard. Normally polyethylene and polyethylene/polypropylene mixes are moulded at 160-180℃ while for paper coating its 300-320 2) Because reflectors have to deal with heat from the light bulbs they were traditionally made from thermoset plastics which look and feel a bit like bread dough. Its pushed into the die where it is HEATED then cooled. The shiny surface is created by first spraying the front side in a lacquer that's UV cured and then under vacuum has a layer of Aluminum about 50-200 atoms thick embedded in the lacquer. Its the lacquer that makes one side shiny and the other dull grey. 3) Copper like many metals is first extracted from the ore using acid leaching. Aluminum does not dissolve from the bauxite using acids and it is instead done with caustic at temperature and pressure. The process is known as the Bayer Process and yes it was by a member of the Bayer family now famous for pharmaceuticals. 4) Copper unlike most metals work hardens as you bend and flex it so it need to be softened through the opposite process to the quench hardening you see on the sword & knife channels. It differs from tempering. Annealing unlike tempering aims to make the metal as soft as practical while tempering aims to specifically keep some hardness while reducing brittleness. To see examples of these processes I recommend watching the sword & knife channels for hardening and tempering and the hobbyist channels making things like model steam engines for annealing. the channel Blondihacks is currently building a model steam engine made from copper. 5) I'd expect that any mechanical engineer knows the difference between a lathe and a mill. Look at what is rotating in the main spindle. A lathe has the part held to the spindle and rotates while the tool is moved in 2 or more axis to shape the part. A mill has the tool mounted in the spindle and it rotates while the part is held to the table and moved around in 2 or more axis to make the part. Where it gets confusing is that it is possible to use a mill as a lathe and a lathe as a mill.
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  133. AEROSPACE ENGINEER HERE: Like many engineers I am TIRED of clowns promoting garbage to the public that we then have to explain and explain and explain why its not possible or it won't work. This crap and nonsense is going on constantly, with scammer after scammer promoting the next thing and wasting everyone's time and money. Just the other day I had some ignorant clown tell me that here in Australia we ALREADY HAVE a couple of Small Modular Reactors operating. Funny thing is NONE of the companies involved in SMRs are saying anything other than they HOPE to have them available by the mid 2030s. According to this clown somehow Australia has time warped in a couple of SMRs. As an aerospace engineer I hear all sorts of nonsense from terraforming Mars (which is simply a fantasy), to Jewish or Chinese Space lasers causing grass fires to hypersonic missiles that manoeuvre and dance around the sky AND ITS ALL BULLSHIT. What Thunder00t is doing with these basic calculations of HOW MUCH IS NEEDED is what I call planetary mechanics. Along with my classmates we were introduced to this by a NASA engineer who did a guest lecture one day. He'd just finished a project for NASA on what it would take to terraform Mars. Once NASA realised just how much stuff (like air) is needed to cover a planet they gave up on the idea of EVER terraforming Mars. But 35 years later there are millions of Elon Musk fans who think they will be going to Mars to terraform it. DID you notice for this proposal the team leader is an Architect? If Architects knew how much engineers HATE THEM. Other than a few of the very best architects who know what their designs do to the people who have to make them, the vast majority of architects are PROBLEM CREATORS. The worst part of their attitude is THEY KNOW they are creating problems for other people to deal with.
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  140. INDUSTRIAL CONTROL SYSTEMS engineer here: This is WHY I KNOW FSD (full self driving) is a false and misleading concept at least for the moment. AND APOLOGIES IF THIS IS LONGISH. FYI - My degree was in aerospace but I have spent 30+ years in industrial control systems, automation and robotics. That has included working with many sensor systems including laser scanning systems. Although I don't work with vision systems I was introduced to the basics of vision systems in 1998 and am fully aware of many of the advancements in that area. The actual problem with FSD is the amount of information that needs to be processed. As human beings we just don't realise how much information our visual cortex processes every second and that's because most of it is processed by our peripheral system which is NOT part of our general conscious. Its all there in our periphery and we aren't focussing on it. Our peripheral system is extraordinary at clumping things together and dismissing irrelevant clumps while alerting our conscious system of potential threats or items of interest. For example we don't see a 100,000 leaves attached to 1,000s branches attached to a trunk connected to a root system we see a tree. We don't see several million yellowish hairs covering 4 legs a body, a tail, a head, big teeth and an even bigger set of fangs we see a lion. Out on the African savannah people don't see millions of blades of grass, 1,000s and 1,000s of antelope, wildebeests, birds, insects and other wild life. OUR BRAIN via our peripheral system filters out the noise and will latch onto that 1 lion out of all those millions and millions of items in our visual range and SCREAM "that's a threat." Similarly when driving a car down the average suburban street we see but don't focus on the millions of leaves - we see the trees and dismiss them as NOT a threat. We see don't see all the nuts, bolts, sheets of glass, sheet metal, paint and rubber - we see parked cars and dismiss them as NOT a threat. We see the bricks, boards, windows, window frames, paint - we see houses and dismiss them as NOT a threat. BUT WE DO SEE the bouncing ball coming down a driveway and our peripheral system SCREAMS that there's a dog or a child chasing after that ball OR we'll see a flash of something else and our peripheral system will alert our conscious brain to be aware of it. Like we'll suddenly notice one of the parked cars just moved. This is what our peripheral system does with incredible speed. It processes a staggering mass of data every second and compares it to previous seconds and then filters out all the noise. This is why certain players in team sports seem so amazing in how they can suddenly pass to another player in a way that asks "How did they see them?" The answer is they are people whose peripheral system just operates better than average and in some rare cases a lot better. NOW TRY AND CONSIDER HOW YOU MIGHT GET A COMPUTER TO DO THAT???? Remember no 2 trees are the same, and no 2 cars are ever parked the same, and no 2 houses are the same PLUS no 2 streets are the same anywhere on the planet. There's always something different. NOW CONSIDER that the perspective (as in the visual angles) on that scene is changing every second because your car is MOVING. You now have to process the next image and compare it to previous images to pick up that movement or notice that item that gets the wider scoping part of the system to flag an item of interest to the higher level decision making part of the system. Suddenly you will realise that the scope of the technological task to get a computer to do what the human peripheral system does is monstrous. Once you understand the scope of the task required to to do FSD you'll quickly realise that it MIGHT BE possible for some limited situations or MIGHT be possible once we get the visual scanning systems capable of sorting through all the noise to find those few items that need a higher level of evaluation we can't even begin the task BUT RIGHT NOW we don't have those systems because if they existed we hear all about it. We'd hear about the camera that's as good or better than a human eye and we'd hear about the processor that's as good as the human peripheral system AND NOBODY is even saying they have it under development or has made "the breakthrough". Lets also NOT forget that a bunch of car manufacturers GAVE UP on FSD about 5 years ago. Uber sold off its FSD once they, (like the car manufacturers) realised just what it would take to do the job. This is also why, with the exception of a few tiny companies desperately trying for attention (and money) have stopped trying to build self FLYING air taxis. Sorry if this was longish but I hope you get the gist of why it might be possible in future but NOT NOW.
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  142. Its about 2 digits too few and you keep letting it all burn down. Below this is the comment I addressed to Thunderf00t sorry but its longish ----------- ENGINEER HERE: Normally I would agree 100% with Thunderf00t, but there is a major problem he has missed with the whole carbon capture system and there's simply NO WAY to power it. EVERY VERSION of CARBON CAPTURE REQUIRES ENERGY and by far the single biggest issue facing society right now is energy. I first became aware of the energy issue during a small consulting job in 2016 into Australia's (my country's) future energy needs. Ignoring other things Australia has 22.6 GW of coal fired power to be replaced. Just like many other countries there is no way around this BECAUSE they are OLD and WEARING OUT and HAVE TO BE REPLACED ANYWAY. That build out also has to be double that amount because of population growth. Using Hinkley Point C which is the nuclear power station being constructed in Britain we can get the cost of what it would take Australia to replace that 22.6GW with LOW EMISSION nuclear. Its AU$440 Billion but when you add in expected population growth that doubles to AU$880 Billion. Then when you add in the extra power needed for all the electric cars we want it goes over AU$ 1 Trillion. When you add the power grid upgrades needed it costs around AU$2 TRILLION. I AM NOT AGAINST NUCLEAR POWER but I am calling you and many others out on what it actually costs to do what the job that exists will take. If its going to cost Australia AU$2 Trillion what do you think its going to cost all the other countries around the world with similar problems? Simply put the CO2 removal from the atmosphere has to be done with A LOW ENERGY SYSTEM and I am sorry but that means trees. YES I AGREE with Thunderf00t 100% that doing this with trees will take a monumental world encompassing program and that none of the tree hugging Greenies understand SHlT about what it will take, but trees don't need to be plugged into anything because they're solar powered. At a basic concept it means something like every person on the planet planting 1,000 trees and hoping that 1 in 10 make it to maturity. But those 800 Billion trees that survive to maturity should capture several Trillion tons of Carbon over the next 20-30 years and we need to be thinking about and talking on a level of Trillions of tons. Just so none of you think I'm crazy Statista has the global emissions on graph going from 1940 to 2022. It took the 44 years from 1940 to 1984 to emit 500 Million tons. It took the 21 years to 2005 to emit the second 500 Million tons (making 1 Trillion tons) It took the 15 years to 2020 for the next 500 Million tons making it 1.5 trillion tons of cumulative emissions since 1940. At the current rate of 37 Billion tons a year we'll reach 2 Trillion tons of cumulative emissions around 2033. Sorry TF (and I love your channel) but nobody's mechanical or chemical carbon capture solution is going to work if its needs energy and trees don't need to be plugged in to a power station to work. They only require muscle energy to plant them.
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  151.  @Fetidaf  I all agree with that except for the general maintenance. Outside of the engine & drivetrain there's not difference between electric, diesel, gas, hydrogen, LPG there's no difference between vehicle types. That's one of the bullshit things regarding the push to electric vehicles. The cost of chassis, wheels, suspension, BRAKES, windscreens, door, lights,.. etc wont change. The Greenies also don't take into consideration the CO2 emissions regarding all those raw materials in a car or the production of components from those raw materials. And before you ask I used to build automated manufacturing cells for car parts in the supply chain. If we really want to go electrical then the main push has to be in CONVERTING existing vehicles NOT replacing them. We also need to be less concerned with trucks, power walls and mega batteries because we just don't have enough Lithium supply to do it all. We need to be looking at other batter technologies for stationary applications. Things like the Sadoway battery or the other batteries that don't use Lithium. In heavy vehicles like trucks and the giant dump trucks & diggers used in mining there's work underway in just changing the fuel over to hydrogen. Fortescue Metals in Australia is already testing that on dump trucks. Rolls Royce can supply stationary generators based based on existing diesel engines that use hydrogen as their fuel. It probably wont work for boats and ships because of the range they need. But I can see nuclear reactors taking over for the shipping industry.
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  152.  @Fetidaf  I don't why you think that the energy offset for a truck is a few 1000 miles. Its little understood outside the manufacturing industries but in general your average family car consumes more energy and creates more pollution being made than it does in 20-25 years of normal driving. I'll be honest the first time I heard that I called BS and the person telling me was actually a mechanic. He told me to FK-OFF and go look at how much goes into just making the raw steel, aluminum, plastic and glass. Its why I say if the Greenies knew their stuff they campaign against new cars. People forget that the car industry is the biggest manufacturing industry in the world by raw materials and energy, because its doesn't just include the cars it includes all the stuff needed to make the cars. There's entire industries like industrial robots that primarily exist for car manufacturing. I know I used to program them. Tesla's are full of metals that aren't found as much in other cars. There's a lot more copper and copper is incredibly energy intensive to refine it to where you can use it the way its used in a Tesla. And before you ask, I have spent most of the last 20 years on mine sites. I have worked in the iron, ore, cocking coal, copper, aluminum, uranium and gold industries to name a few. One of the first mines I worked on was a copper mine that produced 99.999% pure copper. After getting it out of the ore with sulphuric acid they eventually got it into a near pure copper solution from which they electroplated it onto stainless steel sheets. That electroplating system used a lot of power. Copper will be the next big issue in the energy transition. Like Lithium we don't produce enough. Its why people strip it out of old houses, factories and anywhere else they can.
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  159. INDUSTRIAL CONTROL SYSTEMS engineer here: This is WHY I KNOW FSD (full self driving) is a false and misleading concept at least for the moment. AND APOLOGIES IF THIS IS LONGISH. FYI - My degree was in aerospace but I have spent 30+ years in industrial control systems, automation and robotics. That has included working with many sensor systems including laser scanning systems. Although I don't work with vision systems I was introduced to the basics of vision systems in 1998 and am fully aware of many of the advancements in that area. The actual problem with FSD is the amount of information that needs to be processed. As human beings we just don't realise how much information our visual cortex processes every second and that's because most of it is processed by our peripheral system which is NOT part of our general conscious. Its all there in our periphery and we aren't focussing on it. Our peripheral system is extraordinary at clumping things together and dismissing irrelevant clumps while alerting our conscious system of potential threats or items of interest. For example we don't see a 100,000 leaves attached to 1,000s branches attached to a trunk connected to a root system we see a tree. We don't see several million yellowish hairs covering 4 legs a body, a tail, a head, big teeth and an even bigger set of fangs we see a lion. Out on the African savannah people don't see millions of blades of grass, 1,000s and 1,000s of antelope, wildebeests, birds, insects and other wild life. OUR BRAIN via our peripheral system filters out the noise and will latch onto that 1 lion out of all those millions and millions of items in our visual range and SCREAM "that's a threat." Similarly when driving a car down the average suburban street we see but don't focus on the millions of leaves - we see the trees and dismiss them as NOT a threat. We see don't see all the nuts, bolts, sheets of glass, sheet metal, paint and rubber - we see parked cars and dismiss them as NOT a threat. We see the bricks, boards, windows, window frames, paint - we see houses and dismiss them as NOT a threat. BUT WE DO SEE the bouncing ball coming down a driveway and our peripheral system SCREAMS that there's a dog or a child chasing after that ball OR we'll see a flash of something else and our peripheral system will alert our conscious brain to be aware of it. Like we'll suddenly notice one of the parked cars just moved. This is what our peripheral system does with incredible speed. It processes a staggering mass of data every second and compares it to previous seconds and then filters out all the noise. This is why certain players in team sports seem so amazing in how they can suddenly pass to another player in a way that asks "How did they see them?" The answer is they are people whose peripheral system just operates better than average and in some rare cases a lot better. NOW TRY AND CONSIDER HOW YOU MIGHT GET A COMPUTER TO DO THAT???? Remember no 2 trees are the same, and no 2 cars are ever parked the same, and no 2 houses are the same PLUS no 2 streets are the same anywhere on the planet. There's always something different. NOW CONSIDER that the perspective (as in the visual angles) on that scene is changing every second because your car is MOVING. You now have to process the next image and compare it to previous images to pick up that movement or notice that item that gets the wider scoping part of the system to flag an item of interest to the higher level decision making part of the system. Suddenly you will realise that the scope of the technological task to get a computer to do what the human peripheral system does is monstrous. Once you understand the scope of the task required to to do FSD you'll quickly realise that it MIGHT BE possible for some limited situations or MIGHT be possible once we get the visual scanning systems capable of sorting through all the noise to find those few items that need a higher level of evaluation we can't even begin the task BUT RIGHT NOW we don't have those systems because if they existed we hear all about it. We'd hear about the camera that's as good or better than a human eye and we'd hear about the processor that's as good as the human peripheral system AND NOBODY is even saying they have it under development or has made "the breakthrough". Lets also NOT forget that a bunch of car manufacturers GAVE UP on FSD about 5 years ago. Uber sold off its FSD once they, (like the car manufacturers) realised just what it would take to do the job. This is also why, with the exception of a few tiny companies desperately trying for attention (and money) have stopped trying to build self FLYING air taxis. Sorry if this was longish but I hope you get the gist of why it might be possible in future but NOT NOW.
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  166. AEROSPACE ENGINEER HERE: Like many engineers I am TIRED of clowns promoting garbage to the public that we then have to explain and explain and explain why its not possible or it won't work. This crap and nonsense is going on constantly, with scammer after scammer promoting the next thing and wasting everyone's time and money. Just the other day I had some ignorant clown tell me that here in Australia we ALREADY HAVE a couple of Small Modular Reactors operating. Funny thing is NONE of the companies involved in SMRs are saying anything other than they HOPE to have them available by the mid 2030s. According to this clown somehow Australia has time warped in a couple of SMRs. As an aerospace engineer I hear all sorts of nonsense from terraforming Mars (which is simply a fantasy), to Jewish or Chinese Space lasers causing grass fires to hypersonic missiles that manoeuvre and dance around the sky AND ITS ALL BULLSHIT. What Thunder00t is doing with these basic calculations of HOW MUCH IS NEEDED is what I call planetary mechanics. Along with my classmates we were introduced to this by a NASA engineer who did a guest lecture one day. He'd just finished a project for NASA on what it would take to terraform Mars. Once NASA realised just how much stuff (like air) is needed to cover a planet they gave up on the idea of EVER terraforming Mars. But 35 years later there are millions of Elon Musk fans who think they will be going to Mars to terraform it. DID you notice for this proposal the team leader is an Architect? If Architects knew how much engineers HATE THEM. Other than a few of the very best architects who know what their designs do to the people who have to make them, the vast majority of architects are PROBLEM CREATORS. The worst part of their attitude is THEY KNOW they are creating problems for other people to deal with.
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  170. HEY THUNDERFOOT MADE A MISTAKE. I work in Industrial control systems, automation and robotics. Those 2 robots you show at 37:30 have been available for AT LEAST 25 YEARS NOT 15. The company I left in 2001 was the (then) Kuka and Adept agent in Australia and we knew what our competitors could do. The robot on the left of your shot is a standard 6 axis anthropomorphic arm and those have been around for decades. The robot on the right is a 4-axis "Spider Robot" (just put "4-axis spider robot into google"). I know that BEFORE the year 2000 ABB had one of those available. The thing that you are NOT highlighting in that part of the video is that the spider robot is locating the items its picking off the conveyor using vision guided robotics. Notice how all those parts are randomly arranged and the spider is arranging them in organised groups so the other robot can place them on the next conveyor. There is a camera upstream of the robot looking down on the conveyor which has an encoder on it. The vision system identifies the location and orientation of each part and with the encoder on the conveyor translates that to the Spider which can then pick it up and orientate it and put it back down in the right place so the other robot can pick up the groups of 4 parts. I know how that stuff works because I had that technology demonstrated to me by an Adept Engineer when I visited their Cincinnati Office in 1998 or 99. They weren't using a Spider robot at that time. They were using a small high speed SCARA robot. So I know for a fact that technology has been available for AT LEAST 25 YEARS. So SORRY Thunderboy but your 15 years is wrong its at least 25. Fyi - I actually did aerospace and if you would like I'd be happy to show you how truly stupid they are being with the Artemis program. Its worse than most people realise. The closest I have seen anyone expose the real depth of the issue is Destin (another Aerospace) who has the YT channel "Smarter Every Day." For anyone interested put "smarter every day artemis" into the YT search and the top item should be titled "I Was SCARED To Say This To NASA... (But I said it anyway) - Smarter Every Day 293" posted 4 Dec 2023.
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  171. As an aerospace engineer I love Elon for his enthusiasm and his investment. In that he has actually been a very, very good thing for space industrialization and without that we would be worse off. BUT I absolutely hate the fantasies he promotes at times. I suspect its his way of challenging people or his way of inspiring the public. Problem is those of us who know can see through it. I do remember Space Station Freedom because it was the solution to what's next when I was in college (late 80s). Then a little thing called the Challenger accident happened and our hopes crashed with it. Some things of note from that time. Apologies if the following is long and seems like lecture notes. 1: Space Station Freedom was first budgeted at $20Billion. That was TOO expensive so it was redesigned and then budgeted at $30 Bullion. That was TOO expensive and it was then redesigned for a second time and costed at $40 Billion. So that got scrapped and we got the ISS for $200 Billion. 2: The massive costs of operating the Space Shuttle and massive costs it added to the ISS are the main reason nobody has gone back to the moon in 50 years. There just wasn't any money left after the shuttle and ISS. The massive issue is with those costs is that the technologies needed for a moon bas or Mars base have never been fully funded and there's still huge amounts of work to do and most notably in life support. It wont matter if anyone goes to Mars and is dead from a lack of oxygen or carbon dioxide poisoning months before they get there. 3: After Challenger happened and people were calling to scrap NASA it was revealed that the Apollo program had returned almost $10 for every $1 spent. You see all those technological advances had finally started to filter through and pay off back in terms of sales tax and technology exports. Every body knows about Teflon, but many of the aluminum alloys we have across out industries came out of Apollo. But the biggest of all was the computer evolution from the size of houses down to shoe box size. All of Microsoft, Intel, Google, Facebook and the rest of them might not exist if the Apollo AGC wasn't built. The technology boom Apollo kicked off is still generating money to this day. 4: Kelly Johnson (yeah the guy behind the SR-71) told congress to not replace Challenger and instead spend the money on its replacement. He asked for the $3 Billion budgeted and no interference and estimated he could have an SST in 3-5 years. Boeing stepped in, Rockwell stepped in, others stepped and NASA got a 5th shuttle that also cost too much to operate. They then spent over $14 Billion on a shuttle replacement that was NEVER DELIVERED and that $14 Billion doesn't include anything spent on SLS, which still hasn't flown. Best wishes to all.
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  175. AEROSPACE ENGINEER here: For professors there's 2 points and the first of those is MONEY as in how much can they drag into their department. The second is that they like to put ideas in front of students at times they ALREADY KNOW can't work and the actual lesson is in recognising it. Third they will at times give students a novel idea to investigate for their final year project. We had 2 options my year. The first was for a 4 seat light aircraft and the second (which I did) was for a novel kind of comet fly by space craft. It had a detachable shield that flew ahead of the space craft and provided a clear area free of the tails dust to fly in and observe the comment unobstructed. It was novel and innovative and would also NEVER WORK, but we got what we were supposed to get which was the experience of working on a team project. So I hope that answers part of your question. The bit I'd be far more inquisitive of is how so many got conned by the fact it was never viable for reasons people had discovered decades ago. In aerospace Robert Goddard the guy who first wrote about trains in vacuum tubes is also the father of modern rocketry. He's a legend and his work is well known. Plus there's all sorts of sci-fi where this sort of travel was shown - Logans Run and Space 1999 being 2 I know of. THIS WASN'T A NEW IDEA. And that's what quite a few college professors need to be asked: "How did you NOT see this was nonsense or WASN'T an original idea and let your students believe it was a new idea?"
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  177. Another Australian here and I am old enough to remember all the UFO sightings that we supposedly had in the 1970s following the Apollo Moon Landings. In most cases they were all debunked as aircraft or meteors. There was a famous one of what clearly looked like a classic saucer shaped object flying near the hills outside Las Angeles. Because there were Hills in the background people knew the distances. So they knew how large it was and how fast it was travelling and people went "Ah Ha" The someone did the basic image analysis. Because it was filmed on the old classic super-8 what they basically had was several 100 still images and they overlapped them. It became really obvious it was just a Cessna but it was flying at an angle to the camera where the light just came of it in a way that at the distance it was it looked like a classic 1950s flying saucer. How about all those early astronomers who looked through their telescopes and saw "canals" on Mars??? In a documentary (back in the 80s or 90s) I remember seeing a psychologist do an experiment on it once they took groups of high school arts class students and asked them to draw an object they had put at a distance beyond what most people could clearly distinguish details. The object was simply a circle on a flat surface with some random blobs inside the circle. No matter how many times they did it the majority of people would include lines connecting the blobs. There is something weird about the human visual cortex that when it can't distinguish details on a distant object it will add details in an effort to recognise what it might be. Psychologists have known about this stuff for decades.
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  181. In simplest terms - they want to believe in a future Don't forget we live in a world with a very uncertain future. Nobody actually knows what specifically will happen with climate change but we all know it will be hard times ahead. Then add in that we all know our political leaders are owned by the billionaire class. What do you think's driving both this type of blind belief that technology will save us or what's the rise of religious fundamentalism? There are people who really think Elon is going to take them to Mars in the next few years and save them from climate change. What does that sound like? FYI - I am an engineer. I did a degree in aerospace but work in automation, robotics and control systems. See those Yellow robots around 10 minutes. Those are Fanuc's a Japanese brand that I am trained on. There is real genuine frustration in the engineering world these days. There is so much misleading PR being pumped into the soft skulls of a gullible population its almost a full time job for some people explaining that the PR is just PR and ITS NOT FACT. Think about how many amazing technologies people promised that NEVER came into fruition. Where's Mark Zuckerberg's Libra (now called Diem)? What about nuclear fusion, faster than light travel or my favorite flying cars? In particular there's a staggering amount of ignorance regarding robotics and automation. Automation rarely costs anyone their job. Usually it saves jobs by making people more productive. Nobody packs up a company and moves it to China AFTER they spend money improving their production. Robots cannot think. They do as they are programmed to do. You program them to move in certain patterns and they do that again and again and again day in, day out within a defined accuracy. They don't complain or get sick and can work in the dark 24/7. They are great for repetitive tasks and totally hopeless for abstract tasks.
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  182. HEY THUNDERFOOT MADE A MISTAKE. I work in Industrial control systems, automation and robotics. Those 2 robots you show at 37:30 have been available for AT LEAST 25 YEARS NOT 15. The company I left in 2001 was the (then) Kuka and Adept agent in Australia and we knew what our competitors could do. The robot on the left of your shot is a standard 6 axis anthropomorphic arm and those have been around for decades. The robot on the right is a 4-axis "Spider Robot" (just put "4-axis spider robot into google"). I know that BEFORE the year 2000 ABB had one of those available. The thing that you are NOT highlighting in that part of the video is that the spider robot is locating the items its picking off the conveyor using vision guided robotics. Notice how all those parts are randomly arranged and the spider is arranging them in organised groups so the other robot can place them on the next conveyor. There is a camera upstream of the robot looking down on the conveyor which has an encoder on it. The vision system identifies the location and orientation of each part and with the encoder on the conveyor translates that to the Spider which can then pick it up and orientate it and put it back down in the right place so the other robot can pick up the groups of 4 parts. I know how that stuff works because I had that technology demonstrated to me by an Adept Engineer when I visited their Cincinnati Office in 1998 or 99. They weren't using a Spider robot at that time. They were using a small high speed SCARA robot. So I know for a fact that technology has been available for AT LEAST 25 YEARS. So SORRY Thunderboy but your 15 years is wrong its at least 25. Fyi - I actually did aerospace and if you would like I'd be happy to show you how truly stupid they are being with the Artemis program. Its worse than most people realise. The closest I have seen anyone expose the real depth of the issue is Destin (another Aerospace) who has the YT channel "Smarter Every Day." For anyone interested put "smarter every day artemis" into the YT search and the top item should be titled "I Was SCARED To Say This To NASA... (But I said it anyway) - Smarter Every Day 293" posted 4 Dec 2023.
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  183.  @EaglePicking  Sorry to burst your bubble and I have explained this many times, BUT there is no way they are going to solve the autonomous driving issue because the amount of computing required to do it at the level people would expect just does not exist and wont possibly ever. The actual task is far more complex than most people can even conceive let alone consider how it might be done. There's the issue of having to match what the human visual cortex can do and the human visual cortex is actually 2 systems NOT 1. There's the focus part and the peripheral part and its the peripheral part that amazes me because of what it does. The brilliance of Alan Turing's enigma breaking machine wasn't that it systematically searched the possibilities. It worked by eliminating what the answer could NOT be. The human peripheral vision system does something similar. ONE of its main tasks is threat analysis and it does that by clumping complex arrangements into single items it can dismiss very quickly. Consider your driving and you see a tree. Your brain does NOT register a million leaves and twigs and branches it just clumps it into a tree and if that tree is NOT a threat its dismissed very quickly. The same goes for the millions of bit that make up a house. Your brain doesn't go there's that brick, that brick, that brick........ etc. It goes building. It does the same for all sorts of other things. PLUS it doesn't have to even see a particular object previously ever have had to see Your peripheral system can do that almost 50 times a second. The amount of available data points is staggering and this system just does. On top of that it compares the previous frame tot recent frames to discern movement. People who think we will just be able to do that in silicon based electrical system that can fit in car really don't get what the task is. I can go on and on about this stuff but wont waste your or my time. Its just NOT going to happen. Maybe just maybe if we can get quantum computers working but not silicon based systems.
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  184. Derek Muller actually has a science education https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Muller#Early_life_and_education So he has no excuse for not seeing through Elon's garbage. The fascination with tech billionaires is that they make average people feel "techie" if that's even a word. If you have a look at them they mainly do stuff that make technologies more accessible. Even go back in time to Henry Ford. His brilliance was making the car accessible to everyone. He's one of those accessibility stores I know about. I grew up in a town not far from where Derek Muller was born. He's from a town called Traralgon and I'm from Warragul. I actually went to college in America and did aerospace engineering at the U. of Illinois. Not as famous as some schools but in the late 80s it was pretty much the world center of supercomputing. We had this odd system called Plato. It was one of the worlds first wide area data base systems, but it was a pig to use. It was so bad most of us refused to use it. Everything was in text, no pictures, no graphics and it was so slow you would fall asleep using it. To this day I suspect we were being used as lab rats with that system. But the computers we all started using were these cute little boxes from "that fruit company" called a Macintosh. They were just great for typing up term papers. They gave us 2 rooms full of them and they were packed 24/7. You could go in there at 3am and still have to wait. So a couple of the geniuses from the supercomputing group decided they would make Plato as easy to use as an Apple. They weren't really the first to try it but they were the first to succeed. Their program was called Mosaic, their company was called NetScape and the web browser you are reading this on right now is the result of their work in making computers accessible to everyone. I don't know about others but Marc Andreessen is estimated to be worth $1.7Billion. And yes I sometimes wish I'd done computer engineering instead of aerospace.
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  196. AEROSPACE ENGINEER HERE: Like many engineers I am TIRED of clowns promoting garbage to the public that we then have to explain and explain and explain why its not possible or it won't work. This crap and nonsense is going on constantly, with scammer after scammer promoting the next thing and wasting everyone's time and money. Just the other day I had some ignorant clown tell me that here in Australia we ALREADY HAVE a couple of Small Modular Reactors operating. Funny thing is NONE of the companies involved in SMRs are saying anything other than they HOPE to have them available by the mid 2030s. According to this clown somehow Australia has time warped in a couple of SMRs. As an aerospace engineer I hear all sorts of nonsense from terraforming Mars (which is simply a fantasy), to Jewish or Chinese Space lasers causing grass fires to hypersonic missiles that manoeuvre and dance around the sky AND ITS ALL BULLSHIT. What Thunder00t is doing with these basic calculations of HOW MUCH IS NEEDED is what I call planetary mechanics. Along with my classmates we were introduced to this by a NASA engineer who did a guest lecture one day. He'd just finished a project for NASA on what it would take to terraform Mars. Once NASA realised just how much stuff (like air) is needed to cover a planet they gave up on the idea of EVER terraforming Mars. But 35 years later there are millions of Elon Musk fans who think they will be going to Mars to terraform it. DID you notice for this proposal the team leader is an Architect? If Architects knew how much engineers HATE THEM. Other than a few of the very best architects who know what their designs do to the people who have to make them, the vast majority of architects are PROBLEM CREATORS. The worst part of their attitude is THEY KNOW they are creating problems for other people to deal with.
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  201.  @Deebz270  There's a slight understatement "the Earth's biosphere is in early stages of shifting its state of thermoequlibrium" Before I explain why I agree and give you something to think about. There will be a next version of economics. The true effects of Climate Change wont change that, in fact it will drive it. I suggest you listen to Mark Blyth he's better at explaining the economic phases than I am. On the planet. I did my degree in aerospace (late 80s) and we once had a guest lecture from an Alum who had just finished a NASA project on the basics of terraforming Mars. He introduced us to what I now call Planetary Mechanics which is just the basic calculations on how much needs to be done. The other subject is Planetary Dynamics which is the whole how do you make the gas cycles and water cycle work. Its like comparing how many nuts and bolts you need versus how do you make a car actually work properly and not fall apart. The simplest thing I do with people is ask them to look at the surface area of the planet in question in square kilometers and then add 9 (000,000,000) zeros. You now have a very reasonable (within 1%) of the volume of air that's 1km thick covering the surface of you planet. Now that you have that number is pretty easy using a very basic formula to work out how much energy is required to raise the temperature of that volume of air from say 20℃ to 21℃ AND YES its a seriously huge number and if you consider the energy of something like the Hiroshima bomb you can easily work out how many Hiroshima's it takes to raise that much air from 20℃ to 21℃. I wont tell you that number and if you do calculate it I suggest not trying to tell too many people it either freaks them out or they think you're nuts. I use the same method to show how Elon is FOS on terraforming Mars. You do the same thing but instead calculate the MASS of earth standard air which is 1.2kg per m3. You then ask the Muskbots where Elon is going to get 173 Trillion tons of air. I actually had one of them recently say that we only need the oxygen??? So then I asked where they thought Elon would get his hands on roughly 36 Trillion tons of Oxygen. So yes you are dead right the Earth is transitioning, but what its transitioning into is a bugger of a question because there will be things in play that we don't talk about much. Water Vapor is top of that tree. Warmer planet means more water vapor in the sky. Water vapor does a couple of things. It reflects light off the planet so tends to stop it getting hotter but it also acts like a thermal blanket so once its hotter it tends to keep it hotter for a while. Then when it finally does cool it comes down as rain and snow in seriously large amounts. So we can expect these events where lots of moisture gets sucked into the sky and then eventually comes back down with a bit of a deluge effect. I'm Australian we are currently having our 9th major flood this year. We even had snow in a few places. Yeah driest country on the planet and we've been flooded 9 times in one year and been snowed on right before summer starts. Nothing to see here! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKnX5wci404 Sorry for the longish reply but you're smart enough to get it.
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  206. INDUSTRIAL CONTROL SYSTEMS engineer here: This is WHY I KNOW FSD (full self driving) is a false and misleading concept at least for the moment. AND APOLOGIES IF THIS IS LONGISH. FYI - My degree was in aerospace but I have spent 30+ years in industrial control systems, automation and robotics. That has included working with many sensor systems including laser scanning systems. Although I don't work with vision systems I was introduced to the basics of vision systems in 1998 and am fully aware of many of the advancements in that area. The actual problem with FSD is the amount of information that needs to be processed. As human beings we just don't realise how much information our visual cortex processes every second and that's because most of it is processed by our peripheral system which is NOT part of our general conscious. Its all there in our periphery and we aren't focussing on it. Our peripheral system is extraordinary at clumping things together and dismissing irrelevant clumps while alerting our conscious system of potential threats or items of interest. For example we don't see a 100,000 leaves attached to 1,000s branches attached to a trunk connected to a root system we see a tree. We don't see several million yellowish hairs covering 4 legs a body, a tail, a head, big teeth and an even bigger set of fangs we see a lion. Out on the African savannah people don't see millions of blades of grass, 1,000s and 1,000s of antelope, wildebeests, birds, insects and other wild life. OUR BRAIN via our peripheral system filters out the noise and will latch onto that 1 lion out of all those millions and millions of items in our visual range and SCREAM "that's a threat." Similarly when driving a car down the average suburban street we see but don't focus on the millions of leaves - we see the trees and dismiss them as NOT a threat. We see don't see all the nuts, bolts, sheets of glass, sheet metal, paint and rubber - we see parked cars and dismiss them as NOT a threat. We see the bricks, boards, windows, window frames, paint - we see houses and dismiss them as NOT a threat. BUT WE DO SEE the bouncing ball coming down a driveway and our peripheral system SCREAMS that there's a dog or a child chasing after that ball OR we'll see a flash of something else and our peripheral system will alert our conscious brain to be aware of it. Like we'll suddenly notice one of the parked cars just moved. This is what our peripheral system does with incredible speed. It processes a staggering mass of data every second and compares it to previous seconds and then filters out all the noise. This is why certain players in team sports seem so amazing in how they can suddenly pass to another player in a way that asks "How did they see them?" The answer is they are people whose peripheral system just operates better than average and in some rare cases a lot better. NOW TRY AND CONSIDER HOW YOU MIGHT GET A COMPUTER TO DO THAT???? Remember no 2 trees are the same, and no 2 cars are ever parked the same, and no 2 houses are the same PLUS no 2 streets are the same anywhere on the planet. There's always something different. NOW CONSIDER that the perspective (as in the visual angles) on that scene is changing every second because your car is MOVING. You now have to process the next image and compare it to previous images to pick up that movement or notice that item that gets the wider scoping part of the system to flag an item of interest to the higher level decision making part of the system. Suddenly you will realise that the scope of the technological task to get a computer to do what the human peripheral system does is monstrous. Once you understand the scope of the task required to to do FSD you'll quickly realise that it MIGHT BE possible for some limited situations or MIGHT be possible once we get the visual scanning systems capable of sorting through all the noise to find those few items that need a higher level of evaluation we can't even begin the task BUT RIGHT NOW we don't have those systems because if they existed we hear all about it. We'd hear about the camera that's as good or better than a human eye and we'd hear about the processor that's as good as the human peripheral system AND NOBODY is even saying they have it under development or has made "the breakthrough". Lets also NOT forget that a bunch of car manufacturers GAVE UP on FSD about 5 years ago. Uber sold off its FSD once they, (like the car manufacturers) realised just what it would take to do the job. This is also why, with the exception of a few tiny companies desperately trying for attention (and money) have stopped trying to build self FLYING air taxis. Sorry if this was longish but I hope you get the gist of why it might be possible in future but NOT NOW.
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  207. ENGINEER HERE: Normally I would agree 100% with Thunderf00t, but there is a major problem he has missed with the whole carbon capture system and there's simply NO WAY to power it. EVERY VERSION of CARBON CAPTURE REQUIRES ENERGY and by far the single biggest issue facing society right now is energy. I first became aware of the energy issue during a small consulting job in 2016 into Australia's (my country's) future energy needs. Ignoring other things Australia has 22.6 GW of coal fired power to be replaced. Just like many other countries there is no way around this BECAUSE they are OLD and WEARING OUT and HAVE TO BE REPLACED ANYWAY. That build out also has to be double that amount because of population growth. Using Hinkley Point C which is the nuclear power station being constructed in Britain we can get the cost of what it would take Australia to replace that 22.6GW with LOW EMISSION nuclear. Its AU$440 Billion but when you add in expected population growth that doubles to AU$880 Billion. Then when you add in the extra power needed for all the electric cars we want it goes over AU$ 1 Trillion. When you add the power grid upgrades needed it costs around AU$2 TRILLION. I AM NOT AGAINST NUCLEAR POWER but I am calling you and many others out on what it actually costs to do what the job that exists will take. If its going to cost Australia AU$2 Trillion what do you think its going to cost all the other countries around the world with similar problems? Simply put the CO2 removal from the atmosphere has to be done with A LOW ENERGY SYSTEM and I am sorry but that means trees. YES I AGREE with Thunderf00t 100% that doing this with trees will take a monumental world encompassing program and that none of the tree hugging Greenies understand SHlT about what it will take, but trees don't need to be plugged into anything because they're solar powered. At a basic concept it means something like every person on the planet planting 1,000 trees and hoping that 1 in 10 make it to maturity. But those 800 Billion trees that survive to maturity should capture several Trillion tons of Carbon over the next 20-30 years and we need to be thinking about and talking on a level of Trillions of tons. Just so none of you think I'm crazy Statista has the global emissions on graph going from 1940 to 2022. It took the 44 years from 1940 to 1984 to emit 500 Million tons. It took the 21 years to 2005 to emit the second 500 Million tons (making 1 Trillion tons) It took the 15 years to 2020 for the next 500 Million tons making it 1.5 trillion tons of cumulative emissions since 1940. At the current rate of 37 Billion tons a year we'll reach 2 Trillion tons of cumulative emissions around 2033. Sorry TF (and I love your channel) but nobody's mechanical or chemical carbon capture solution is going to work if its needs energy and trees don't need to be plugged in to a power station to work. They only require muscle energy to plant them.
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  211.  @scumbaggo  Yeah this is what its like these days. Western society is dominated by what I call "techno clowns." People who think because they can use a computer that they are somehow technically qualified. Some of them call themselves "futurists" others call themselves "technology educators." Whatever - they are all full of SHlT and rely on an ignorant public who don't know how ignorant they are. Here's my current head scratcher. Less than 2 weeks ago the head of Australia's Space Force (yes we now have one too because if America does then so do we) announced during the Avalon Air Show that we would be focusing on "soft kill satellite technology." I did my degree in aerospace in the late 80s in America when the whole Reagan "Star Wars" thing was going on. Many of the post grads ahead of us were DARPA funded. By around 1987/88 we had all worked out that NONE of it would ever work. We kept quiet because people were getting funding to get through their masters & PhDs. But after the collapse of the Soviets and that whole program got scrapped we could tell the truth. NOW 35 years later I am again hearing about "space lasers" and people wasting lots of money. A couple of years ago I put to the government a small (but what I thought useful) space program proposal using 1/2 the money from a particular government venture which we all knew was ridiculous. So I knew I would not be taking money from any other program. I asked for $720 million. They said NO and then gave the air force $7 Billion for "Star Wars 2.0." How do you think that makes me feel right now????
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  217.  @MrRaulstrnad  What was your first thought? For most people it's about 5 (usually 3-8) because they don't go beyond the switch or socket - they think of a desk lamp or a room light. A few engineers (mostly with an electrical background) go onto the power station, but even fewer (without prompting go back to the basic metals needed. Since I have worked in manufacturing and more recently mining I just go with the metals and my basic list is. Tungsten (filament) Tin (bulb cap) Copper (low voltage wiring) Aluminum (for the cores of the HV transmission lines) Iron (transformers, transmission towers & lines) Zinc (for galvanizing exposed iron components) Nickel, Manganese & Chromium (for the stainless that wraps around HV transmission lines) Coal (to process the iron ore) Sulphur (to make sulphuric acid to process the other ores except aluminum) Soda Ash (to make caustic soda to process the aluminum) So that's at least 10 (or more) mines with all the factories that make mining equipment - diggers, trucks, crushers, conveyors, screens, tanks, pipes,..............etc Then there's the trains, trucks, & ships that take the raw mining materials of to the processing plants. Then there's the processing plants for taking the raw mining materials and producing raw stock - iron, nickel, aluminum smelters.....,etc. Then there's the factories that make all the things that go into building a power station. Then there's the factories that make all the things that go into building a power grid Then there's the factories that make all the things that go into building a house with wiring. Then there's the factories that make all the things that go into building a light. And does not include any of the other infrastructure or many other raw materials required so that 1 person can have a home and turn on that light. It's at least 20,000 and may be well over 50,000.
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