Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "Europe's Natural Gas Challenge" video.

  1. You're not alone. I'm an Australian engineer and I had this odd little consulting project back in 2015. I was stunned to find out the ACTUAL state of Australia's power stations. I watched a video today on California's looming crisis, so I did a quick look at their power stations AND ITS THE SAME STORY. When I look around the world its the same story again and again. Sorry to all if this is long but I have been on this for almost 7 years. Others have been trying to warn about this for a lot longer and nobody listens - we're just engineers. This isn't a German an Australian problem its everywhere. In simplest terms we all stopped building large baseload power stations in the early 1990s. So we are clear what I call a Gigawatt class power stations is one that can deliver in normal operation at least 1 GW (or >1,000 Megawatts) 24/7. California currently has 6 gas, 1 geothermal and 2 nuclear Gigawatt class power stations and only 1 of them was commissioned after 1990, the La Paloma Gas plant at McKittrick in 2003. In the time since they commissioned the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant in 1980 California has grown from 24 to almost 40 million people. Here in Australia as our population went from 15 to 17.5 million in the 80s & 90s, we built 7 Gigawatt class power stations to meet the expected growth. The last of those was commissioned in 1999. As we went from 17.5 to almost 26 million we built NONE. Like another places we built a few smaller power stations and installed heaps of solar and wind. That's great and i love it but it DOES NOT solve the bulk supply that modern societies need. Its help mask the problem, but like the Titanic we are going to sink. It doesn't take any genius to understand the basic economics of supply and demand. If your population increases the demand for electricity increases. If supply doesn't grow to match population growth prices go up. When they used to build big power stations it was with growth in mind. In Australia we built those stations with 20 million in mind. So there's a delay between when we built those stations and when we hit the limits of their supply. Once that happened our prices haven't stopped climbing and have risen over 400% But it gets worse. Now those stations are reaching the end of their useful life. Its doesn't matter what type they are they all have an expiry date. California turned off San Onofre and Australia turned off Hazelwood along with some older small stations. We have 4 of our Gigawatt class power stations scheduled for shutdown due to age in the next 3-5 years and the rest not long after that. RIGHT NOW we haven't a single proposal to consider let alone approve let alone begin constructing. In Britain Hinkley Point C was announced in 2010, approved in 2016 began construction in 2017 and is expected to begin operating in 2027. At £26 Billion ($44B AUD) Australia would need 2 of those and 2 more 1/2 size ones to replace what we are shutting down at a cost of $132 Billion AUD. At best we might have 1 built by 2032 if we started tomorrow. CAN YOU SEE THE PROBLEM. Does rising power prices, power shortages, power outages all sound familiar? You are not alone. Does your government seem to have no answers on what to do? You are not alone. HERE'S THE REAL REASON FOR THIS. The time it takes to propose, approve and built big power stations means that no existing government (state or federal) that starts the process will still be in power when its gets approved or if they approve it when its built. So there's NOTHING for any politician to gain from asking for or approving new power stations. In fact for many politicians making no decision is their re-election strategy or "We will work on it!" is the way to win an election. If Britain had fast tracked Hinkley and maybe another 1 or 2 when they knew what the situation was back in 2010 and just got going they might be turning one on right now and avoiding the crisis. The rest of us are in an even worse state. To all, sorry for the long answer but no matter where you are its pretty much the same problem. Its not the fault of one particular politician or party. Its not the fault of the Green movement or the coal companies or the nuclear proponents. ITS THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THEM.
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  2.  @sunspot42  You're clearly NOT and engineer and have no idea what it actually takes to make a modern technological society FUNCTION. You obviously have no idea how energy is produced or consumed by a modern society because you can't see beyond your own front door. Don't panic most people have NO IDEA of where their electricity or water come from or where their waste water goes. Domestic household consumption of energy and water is nothing compared to industry. Most people cannot even begin to comprehend what's needed just so you can have a bottle of milk in your fridge. This is one of my giant bugs with economists. They know how markets work and what societies consume, but they have no idea how things are produced or delivered. This is why our energy grids are failing, fresh water systems are failing, waste water systems failing and all the rest of our infrastructure is breaking. None of the people making decisions or those holding the microphone have a clue. The idea that we can put solar panels on everyone's rooftops and the worlds problems will magically vanish is a fantasy. You forget we still have to dig the minerals out of the ground, process them into raw stock, process them into solar cells and then install them into solar panels. After that they can be installed on your roof. BUT THEN there's the system to get it into your home. That includes multiple supply and manufacturing systems for the wires to the inverter, the wires from the inverter and all the rest of the energy system in your house. Because people don't see the wires in their walls they don't even realise they exist most of the time. I live in Australia. Do you know how many products I can by here that have no industrial energy or water input? ONE and that's our genuine native arts & crafts. Everything from the food you eat, the clothes you wear, the car you drive, the bike you ride, the computer you use has to be dug from the ground, processed in to raw materials and then made into stuff you buy. Anything in your life that has metal, glass, plastics, paper,...etc involved industrial processes that requires energy. For an engineer its actually infuriating how ignorant the general population is of what it takes to provide all these things the rest of society takes for granted. I don't blame the Morlocks from eating the Eloi.
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