Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "Germany Becomes (Terrifyingly) Normal || Peter Zeihan" video.

I'm Australian and I've left a comment about the issue Peter is NOT discussing regarding American politics its copied below. As an engineer I have worked with many Germans over the years. I work in control systems and automation and have used a lot of German products and had to deal with German engineers. I think Peter has missed that the German people are NOT what they used to be and see their place in the world quite differently. Or at least most of the Germans I have met think and behave that way. I think in a way there are Germans who realise that they are lucky that after what happened in WW2 that they weren't completely wiped off the map. If there's a fear its that current generations forget the past of get a skewed version of it. We aren't immune to that in Australia. In WW1 there was the dreadful Dardanelles Campaign where the British simply sacrificed a generation of Australians and New Zealanders that made up the ANZAC contingent. They also sacrificed 1,000s of Scots and Irish. We now celebrate ANZAC day in Australia as if it was a triumph. Most younger Australians actually think we won that campaign instead of it being a tragic failure. So if there's a danger its in NOT learning from past mistakes AND I HOPE that in these discussions the Peter also has an HONEST look at American politics because right now its a SHlTSHOW and way too many Americans are living in a weird form of mass delusion AND THAT forces the rest of us to act. Below is the other comment which is about the issues in Washington that so far Peter has either ignored or just not done a video on yet. ----- THERE IS ONE THING that Peter is completely leaving out of this discussion is the dysfunction in Washington. I'm Australian abut went to college in America (late 80s) and I have had a lot of contact with American's over several decades. I have NEVER SEEN them divided politically like they are now. Sure the Dems and GOP disagreed on any number of issues, but when it came to FOREIGN AFFAIRS Washington was PREDICTABLE. Yes many people may not have liked what America did and how it behaved especially the CIA and coups across the world, BUT AT LEAST THEY WERE PREDICTABL and the Dems and GOP never saw each other as their mortal enemy and that they had to save the country from the other side. This is a major problem for all of America's allies including Australia. We have just made this massive commitment to nuclear submarines called the AUKUS agreement. Although I agree in principle Australia should go nuclear I think the Virginia-class is a massive mistake. The bigger issue however is: How can we be certain of stable politics in America when the place is now infested with reality denying clowns dominated by geriatrics who wont let go and retire?
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@nrotko I think your mostly right. Where Peter usually gets it right is when he sticks to his strengths of history, geopolitics and demographics. Where he gets it wrong is when he gets away from the areas he knows or gets into a country he doesn't know as well as he thinks he knows it. He also has an American centric view of the world, which gets him along with EVERY OTHER American into trouble. Having gone to college there I have seen the American Centric mentality up close. It can be fixed, but it takes an American to live outside America for 2 years or more and then go home. They need that time to acclimatise to different information. It actually happened to a really good friend of mine. Doug was in Australia for about 3 years after an ugly divorce, went home not too much different, BUT THEN when he visited a year later he was a different person. He'd had enough time outside America to see when he went home just how much of a bubble the American people live in. That was back in the late 90s. I see Peter's mistakes when he speaks about technology but then I'm an engineer. Some of the things he's said on the energy transition are just plain wrong, but I have noticed that MANY OTHER COMMENTATORS making the same mistakes. For an engineer its an infuriating time because there are a bunch of persistent meme's and its like playing whack-a-mole trying to correct them. I do think he's right in that America is going through a major political realignment and that its going to be messy for a couple more years. The thing I see is just how different it is this time. Its nothing like after the Great Depression of what happened in the 1970s & 80s. There's NEVER been a time when Americans were so divided along religious and secular lines where the "other side" isn't just the "other side" they are mortal enemies and think the other side is out to exterminate them as if they are from another planet. I actually think the US Constitution is one of humanities finest achievements EXCEPT that it needs a people who actually care about it rather than what they can exploit from it. That's part of the change that I don't hear Peter or any other American talk about much. American's used to value the Constitution and now its a club to bash the other side with. And that's why I am really concerned.
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@nrotko You have just perfectly described the problem with the American Centric view of the world. They are completely oblivious to consequences. They are almost childish in their view of the world. You know how a young child can't see the consequences of their actions. But eventually as we grow older we know what to do and what NOT to do. On foreign policy Americans just don't seem to get that lesson EVER. I think Peter's right on China because that's a demographic issue and nothing can fix demographics except time. As Peter once said if you want a 25 year old it takes 25 years and 9 months to make one. We also have a similar issue in Australia. It was only 2 days ago I checked out bureau of statistics and found a bizarre thing. There's an interactive population pyramid and it has this noticeable notch for 16-19yr olds and that's factual because we just had a major census in 2021. BUT in the forward projections that notch just disappears and its something like 40-50,000 people. NOBODY IS EXPLAINING where they are coming from. Somehow the bureaucrats are magically going to pull 40-50,000 high school graduates and university students out of thin air.
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@nrotko On America's ability to sort out its problems. There's a famous line by Winston Churchill "You can depend upon the Americans to do the right thing. But only after they have exhausted every other possibility." My way of describing America is: If procrastination was an Olympic sport America would win all 3 medals even if they weren't competing. Other than climate change which is a big issue America is 1) 24.5% of the worlds economy so if it sneezes the rest of us catch a cold and 2) the US dollar ($US) is still the World's reserve currency and that isn't going to change no matter what the BRICS do because its simply impractical. So the bottom line is the rest of us just can't afford to have America act like a drunk, belligerent, spoilt Ivy League frat boy who's never been told "NO" and who's daddy has bailed him out of every stupid thing he's ever done. Most of all NOBODY can afford another such person to be President again.
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THERE IS ONE THING that Peter is completely leaving out of this discussion is the dysfunction in Washington. I'm Australian abut went to college in America (late 80s) and I have had a lot of contact with American's over several decades. I have NEVER SEEN them divided politically like they are now. Sure the Dems and GOP disagreed on any number of issues, but when it came to FOREIGN AFFAIRS Washington was PREDICTABLE. Yes many people may not have liked what America did and how it behaved especially the CIA and coups across the world, BUT AT LEAST THEY WERE PREDICTABLE and the Dems and GOP never saw each other as their mortal enemy and that they had to save the country from the other side. This is a major problem for all of America's allies including Australia. We have just made this massive commitment to nuclear submarines called the AUKUS agreement. Although I agree in principle Australia should go nuclear I think the Virginia-class is a massive mistake. The bigger issue however is: How can we be certain of stable politics in America when the place is now infested with reality denying clowns dominated by geriatrics who wont let go and retire?
1