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Tony Wilson
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "Why EVs Aren't The GreenTech Panacea || Peter Zeihan" video.
AUSTRALIAN ENGINEER HERE: You're right the problem with the entire EV situation is that NOBODY has really thought through what it will take to swap out 1.5 billion cars and 500 million trucks, because that's basically how many there are. I did my degree in Aerospace in America but have mostly worked in industrial control systems and automation for 30+ years. For over a decade a lot of my work was in manufacturing and that included projects in the automotive supply chain. One of my bosses was into car racing and one of his mechanics drove this late 60s American big block V8 gas guzzler. One day I asked him when he would upgrade and get something better? He gave me this interesting reply that I have never forgotten. He said "Because I care about the environment!" He then asked me how much energy went into manufacturing a car (any car) and the think about how many machines we worked around making bits for cars. I have since that time worked in the mining industry and the amount of energy that goes into MAKING A CAR is MORE than most cars consume in 20 years. Simon Michaux (another Australian Engineer) has been looking into how much stuff we'd need to replace 1.5 billion cars and that way we do it now would consume 2-300 years of Lithium production. Simon has a great line: Its not impossible but we need a better plan.
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ENGINEER HERE: EVs make a lot of sense if you want the human race to survive on this planet. We simply can't keep abusing it the way we have for the past 250 years, BUT WE NEED A BETTER PLAN. There's 1.5 Billion registered cars and 500 million trucks in the world. It took decades to build all of those as well as staggering amounts of ENERGY to dig the raw materials out of the ground, process them into raw feed stock and then process that feed stock into the things we all take for granted. Its not just the Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt and other less common metals its also the steel, copper and aluminium needed for making the cars and upgrading the power grids. We are about to start paying the price for having let a very small number of people have way too much say in how our nations function.
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@AWAVAVA WHICH NUMBERS??? The 1.5 billion registered cars and 500 million trucks is there on Wikipedia. YEAH there really are that many cars and trucks AND They will all eventually wear out and need replacing ANYWAY. AND the same goes for all the power stations. As for the several hundred years of Lithium production. Simon Michaux who's an engineer from the mining industry calculated that. Its fairly simple. He just looked at how much lithium Elon puts into his Tesla's and his trucks and looked at current Lithium production. I didn't make those numbers up. This is what infuriates engineers. We tell people much stuff needs to be done and then people throw SHlT at us.
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