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Tony Wilson
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "Alberta's Energy Future" video.
Australian here but I was working in Saskatchewan in late 2017 on a waste water treatment plant. Little known fact is that Saskatchewan is sitting on top of one of the worlds least developed onshore oil fields. Its South West of Saskatoon sort of centered around Kindersley. The difference is that its deeper than Alberta's oil fields - about 1000m. I know this because the accommodation I had was shared with oil people. The reason I was doing a water treatment plant was so the town where it was could expand. Canada's problem is that its population has gone from 25 to 38 million and that means there's an extra 13 million people flushing toilets. Its another part of the infrastructure issues plaguing the Western Hemisphere. In some places its roads, in others bridges, others power stations like here in Australia. But in Canada its waste water treatment. Plus their roads are crap, but they do have really good rail out that way to service their potash and ag industry. That field has been marginal because its deeper, lacks a pipeline out to the world and not much else. Because of changing world politics the locals were telling me they expected Sask to boom through the 2020s if they could get past their infrastructure issues.
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@SA-hh9mv Soon as you tell all those Canadians what will happen with the seriously nasty toxic leftovers from the refining process you can start. Or did you miss the part where he mentioned that Albert crude has lots of sulphur?
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@bluerock4456 Yeah the Sask people told me about their roads. In a weird (and kind of fun way) they seemed almost proud of that fact. There's a road between Kindersley to Saskatoon which I drove several times and its regarded as one of the worst. So I do have experience on that subject. I think they joked about their roads as a way to deal with their frustration. Oddly the attitude of Saskatchewanites to Ottawa is identical to the attitude of most Australians to Canberra. Its very similar to the way Brits feel about London and Americans to Washington. We all see those places as bureaucratic cesspools where good ideas are eaten, digested and shat out by highly toxic swamp beasts.
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@bluerock4456 That sounds EXACTLY like the road up to Saskatoon from Kindersley. We have similar problems in parts Australia. The joke used to be you knew when you crossed the border into to New South Wales because of how much the car would start to shake. These are just symptoms of a much wider problem with infrastructure everywhere. It manifests itself differently in different places. In some places its roads, others bridges, other schools & hospitals but its really noticeable in energy if you know what information to look up. I first became aware of Australia's issues when I did a small energy project about 7 years ago and found out how old our major power stations are. Everybody thinks the energy crisis is a green energy transition issue, buts its NOT. The green transition is just a part of the issue. The real issue ECONOMICS. Many places have NOT been keeping up with their energy demands and everyone is told the same story about investments that cannot be guaranteed to earn money. That's all a misdirection. What I am talking about are the big power stations that supply bulk power 24/7. I call these Gigawatt class power stations because they supply at least 1GW (1,000 Megawatts) 24/7 except when they are shutdown for maintenance. When Australia's population went from 15 to 17.5 million we built 7 of them. As our population increased from 17.5 to almost 26 million we built NONE. California has 9 Gigawatt class power stations 8 were built before 1990. La Paloma at McKittrick was commissioned in 2003. France has not built a new power station since 1999 and since then its population has increased 12%. Its all been caused by some fundamental economics. If you own power stations the easiest way to make MORE money is don't build any new power stations and in particular big power stations. YES it sounds bizarre until you realise how supply-demand markets work. If you let the population growth increase demand then by basic supply-demand economics it drives prices higher. Since your power station has not cost increase (why would it) your profits increase. This is why new Gigawatt class power stations are NOT economical. They would increase supply and drive prices down which might be economically good for you an me but lousy for the people who own power stations. This is why the privatisation of infrastructure around the world has been so awful and why have things like: - bridges collapsing in Italy or failing in America; and - bad roads in Canada and Australia; and - water supply issues in America, Spain and other places; and - an energy crisis. I am amazed Peter doesn't talk about this more.
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@bluerock4456 More point is that its more or less symbolic of how developed nations just aren't spending what they need to on infrastructure. I agree with many people that governments have become so bureaucratic that most of what they do attempt they mismanage. But on that front I have seen private industry make some monumental management blunders over the past 20 years. And I mean multi-billion dollar blunders. In engineering project management is arguably the least understood and worst practiced activity. How some of the people I have met ever got their position in senior management defies common sense and practical reality.
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@bionicloaf At the time I was there over 700 cities and towns across Canada, not just Saskatchewan need to upgrade their water treatment facilities. On top of that there were 100s of smaller 1st nations settlements to get better waste handling. The people I worked with spelled it out to me (when I first go there) how much of a business opportunity there was. I was 100% in and at one point ready to relocate. Unfortunately my boss in OZ was an idiot and only had eyes for China. He just couldn't get how difficult it is to do work with people who speak another language. He ended up screwing the Canadians about and didn't pay me either. Then the local engineer wrecked the plant by letting it freeze. The 6 or 7 Canadian Insurance companies involved then spent a year screaming at each other. I did some of the best work I have ever done only to see it trashed. I really like Canada and Canadians but the whole experience left me very bitter with just being an engineer.
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Follow up on PART of Petes analysis which I think he has wrong. It would be correct to say the Russians might struggle in those Siberian oil fields as the Americans go home and leave them short handed. But other industries face that all the time and get past it. PLUS - The Americans have been there for 20+ years and in that time there is NO WAY the Russians have not been developing their skills. It does not matter what type of engineer you are or what plant and machinery you provide you TRAIN the locals to look after it. OTHERWISE YOU CAN'T GO HOME. PLUS - when you're the owner of several billion dollars of stuff and the people you rely on just leave town. You will offer serious money to anyone who will help. You can bet that people have already received phone calls and with the right number they will just get back on a plane. Don't forget oil people DO NOT VOTE DEMOCRAT. So if Biden says "NO you can't go," they will just wave the middle finger and go make heaps of money.
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@bluerock4456 Yeah dude I know what sulphur is used for, I've spent most of the last 20 years in mining where its used as the raw ingredient for sulphuric acid to leach minerals from ore. That process is actually pretty clever. They burn the sulphur the same way the burn coal to generate electricity. They capture the SO2, put it through a catalytic converter to get S03 and then mixt with demineralised water to get 100% pure H2SO4. AND YES I have done projects using 100% pure H2SO4 and so long as the people involved know what they are doing is quite safe. As for the crap that comes out of oil its not really used for that sort of stuff. A lot of its pumped back down wells or dumped in Africa. And yeah a couple of guys from Switzerland got caught doing that a few years back. Except they were doing it with Mexican crude not Canadian. Out of the oil industry comes some really nasty shit.
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