Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "Israel’s Strategy for Iranian Nukes || Peter Zeihan" video.

Same reply I just gave to another comment. I'm an engineer and have pointed out on a few occasions that PZ doesn't know what he's talking about when it comes to engineering subjects. I have repeatedly advised him and others to stop pumping out garbage, STFU and let the engineers explain what is and isn't engineering fact. My degree is in aerospace but I work in industrial control systems, robotics and automation. In 2005-06 I did a water treatment plant on a Uranium mine and as part of that we did an extensive nuclear induction. A normal mine site induction is 1-2 hours (max) this induction went for 2-1/2 days. the first 1/2 day was normal mine stuff and the other 2 days we covered uranium from when its in the ground to when its back in the ground. When it got to the subject of enrichment someone asked WTF the Iranians were up to. It was around that time that everyone was getting very anxious about what the Iranians were up to. The trainer doing the induction laid it all out and explained how EVERYONE across the World's nuclear industries KNEW 100% that the Iranians had a weapons program. It was the number of centrifuges that gave it away and we knew how many centrifuges they had because of how many high speed electric motors to spin them that they had bought along with the electronics to control those motors. The actual motors and electronics are NOT restricted tech because its stuff used in many other industries. Certain materials are restricted because they allow making the centrifuges much easier. I have explained that so many times.
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I'm an engineer and have pointed out on a few occasions that PZ doesn't know what he's talking about when it comes to engineering subjects. I have repeatedly advised him and others to stop pumping out garbage, STFU and let the engineers explain what is and isn't engineering fact. My degree is in aerospace but I work in industrial control systems, robotics and automation. In 2005-06 I did a water treatment plant on a Uranium mine and as part of that we did an extensive nuclear induction. A normal mine site induction is 1-2 hours (max) this induction went for 2-1/2 days. the first 1/2 day was normal mine stuff and the other 2 days we covered uranium from when its in the ground to when its back in the ground. When it got to the subject of enrichment someone asked WTF the Iranians were up to. It was around that time that everyone was getting very anxious about what the Iranians were up to. The trainer doing the induction laid it all out and explained how EVERYONE across the World's nuclear industries KNEW 100% that the Iranians had a weapons program. It was the number of centrifuges that gave it away and we knew how many centrifuges they had because of how many high speed electric motors to spin them that they had bought along with the electronics to control those motors. The actual motors and electronics are NOT restricted tech because its stuff used in many other industries. Certain materials are restricted because they allow making the centrifuges much easier. I have explained that so many times.
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@careylymanjones Actually you can make a critical mass device from plutonium because like Uranium it also has a critical mass above which it can chain react. You can also (theoretically) use Uranium in an implosion device its just much harder to achieve. The fundamental reason they do implosion with Plutonium and critical mass with Uranium is that its just easier and more practical to make those types of devices work.
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@nickj1968 I 100% agree when he talks technologies and engineering subjects, but on geo-politics and demographics I am yet to see anyone prove him wrong on anything. I have seen had people claim to me that he sucks at both geo-politics and demographics but when I have asked them on what part they never reply.
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@PirateRadioPodcasts great question and its needs to be dealt with
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@bcanuck No - Russia is one of the main countries for PRODUCING nuclear fuel. its one of the very few things that has never been sanctioned because 1 in 20 American homes is powered by Russian nuclear fuel. If you go and look up the channel decoupled and look for a video on enriching with James Krellenstein he goes through the history of enrichment and where it is today.
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@calc1657 Because his assessments on geo-politics and demographics where he has actual expertise are really good. I just get pist off when he keeps repeating bad science and engineering because he has no excuses. He can afford to hire and engineer or just ask one.
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@calc1657 And besides his fans need to know he gets stuff WRONG.
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@calc1657 Good question and the answer is YES. One thing I hear so few mention is that there's not just one sort of reaction going on in a reactor, Its NOT like burning coal or methane where there's a specific chemical reaction. In a reactor you get a range of reactions going on that can include neutrons being absorbed, different types of radioactive decay and atoms splitting. The reactor design and how its operated affects what happens and what's available in the fuel rods. Many of the first generation of British reactors were purposefully designed (breeder reactors) and operated to get as much plutonium as possible.
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@careylymanjones YEAH I KNOW ALL THAT - please read what I said.
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@jfarm30 that's as valid of a question as it gets. What bothers me is that NOBODY is publicly stating HOW WE KNEW they had a weapons program. Most of the people claiming it was a weapons program are just making an assumption based on their own personnel beliefs & bias. I was in a group of ~20 people and we had it explained HOW WE KNEW and that was 2005 (19+ years ago) and I have not heard anyone stand up and say "YES WE KNEW and this is HOW WE KNEW." 🙅‍♂🙅‍♀🙅‍♂🙅‍♀🙅‍♂🙅‍♀
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@jfarm30 There's something that scares me way way worse than nuclear weapons. The chance of someone using a nuclear weapon is low because everyone that has them knows the consequences if they one. Even the craziest North Korean or Iranian knows if they throw 1 then 10 more will come back. What worries me is some clown in a lab playing God with genetics. During COVID when the whole Gain of Function hysteria was going on DW (Germans) did one of the very few decent honest vid stories on the subject. In it the mentioned Ron Fouchier a Dutch researcher who in 2011 announced he'd cooked up a version of Bird Flu that turned out to be the most dangerous virus in human history AND NOBODY KNEW HE WAS DOING IT. He went to tell the whole world how he did it by publishing his work. The Dutch government slammed that door shut but Ron Fouchier took them to court because he wanted his Nobel Prize. Thankfully the Dutch Courts agreed with the Dutch government and said "NO!" That's what scares me. Someone doing something insane in a lab somewhere and there's no supervision and nobody knows what they are doing.
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@jaydugger3291 Yeah if you watch some of his longer presentations they are mostly just variations of the same thing. Its not that I find that egregiously wrong cause most of those things need repeating. Its more a case people need to be aware that Peter's knowledge and analysis has limits and in the case of engineering its very limited.
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@Tre-77 That's a great question. My initial response is: Like everyone else with any interest in the matter the only people who EXACTLY know what the Israelis have is the Israelis. I doubt even the American's know exactly what they have. So I did a quick check: Start reading the Wikipedia page for "Nuclear power in Israel" when you get down to the IRR2 there's a link to the Wikipedia page for the Negev Research. Read through that page and not what's said in the section on construction and then down further for what Mordechai Vanunu told the world about that site. Also take note of what the American's have said.
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