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Tony Wilson
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "China and Semiconductors" video.
I'm an engineer have been critical of some of Peters engineering analysis at times. I think he's totally wrong about the Russian oil & gas wells freezing because after being there 20years at least some of the American expertise will have transferred to the locals. That happens quite naturally because as engineers we always have to deal with the locals and they naturally pick up experience. However in this case he's dead right. I have watched a couple of the videos on the ASML photolithography machines and they are at the very top end of microchip technology. Even if the Chinese or Russians or anyone else could get their hands on one its only part of the technology needed to make high end microchips.
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@alexandermckay8594 I am well aware of that, but Peter keeps repeating that its a MATTER OF EXPERTISE. Its actually easy to stop them freezing, don't stop them flowing for too long. You do know that wells heads can both open and close. So open one of them one day and another the next and keep cycling them. Peter has this bug, that's typical of Americans and that's American technical superiority over other nations AND ITS JUST NOT TRUE. I'm Australian but went to college in America so I am aware of how technically advanced America is. the University I went to was at the time the world center of supercomputing technology. But I also know that Americans have the flaw that they think they are the worlds best at EVERYTHING and that they are so far ahead of everyone else that nobody could possibly solve any problem the world has without them. Its called American Exceptionalism and it gets them into a lot of trouble because they keep underestimating other people.
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@andreasgregorfrank9057 You are so right on that. ASML is the main ticket, but I doubt the Chinese can simply gain the experience in 24 months for the really advanced chip designs. Its like so many things in science and engineering that last 10% is harder than the first 90% and the last 1% is harder than the first 99%. Remember the Americans have decades of experience at solving problems in chip design. Experience like that is hard to replicate in any area of technology. For a comparison look at how companies with incredible levels of technology go into Formula 1 and just can't match the top teams. That's always been the problem for the Chinese. They can buy or steal or the technology they like but you can't buy or steal experience.
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There was no pipeline sabotaged in Poland it was in the Baltic in Swedish waters, Please stick to the facts.
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@peterblood50 LOOK AT WHAT YOU WROTE - THESE ARE YOUR WORDS "You also predicted the pipelines going through Poland would be sabotaged. We don't know yet if that's what happened but it's a possibility." How is anybody meant to read that other than you have just said that the pipeline that was sabotaged was in Poland or Polish waters?
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I'm similar, I think Trump was an utter catastrophe but Biden is also NOT a step in the right direction. America and the rest of the Western hemisphere needs forward vision not backwards. But this is an interesting turn of events considering the number of claims that he and his son Hunter did huge deals earning millions of dollars with the CCP. The only question I'd have to Peters' assessment is how much has he factored in that the Chinese have already bought or stolen an incredible amount of technical information and that maybe behind this move. The Chinese might have finally taken something that's forced the US to say "enough." The other thing is they have had people at Western Universities for over 20 years learning how to do a lot of stuff. So I'd agree this will smash the Chinese manufacturing industry in the short term, but they do have the people with at lease some of the skills recover down the line. As an engineer I'd tend to put the issue in terms of project management Because if the Chinese want to build a midrange semi-conductor plant their problem will be finding someone capable of putting it all together.
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