Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "CNBC" channel.

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  3. @Alvin Walker Sorry mate but like many other people in the world you are under the false apprehension that anything can just be reverse engineered and that's just NOT TRUE. Sorry for the long answer, but its not just for you it for anyone else wondering. I have degree in aerospace and 30+ years work in automation, control systems and robotics. Some stuff just can't be reverse engineered even when you know that task. It could be a lack of skills, knowledge or resources. Some things are just hard to do. I see it in robotics and CNC all the time. Yes there's been some extraordinary advances that make stuff easy for people to do. But once you start chasing precision its just keeps getting harder. A good example is respirators. Early in the COVID pandemic there was a world wide shortage of respirators and there were many announcements from a variety of amateurs and professionals. There's a YT channel called Real Engineering that's hosted y an engineer who once worked at one of the worlds largest manufacturers of respirators. He did a video on how respirators HAVE to work. It wasn't just what they do but HOW and WHY they do what they have to do. All the amateurs and professionals missed the fact that respirators aren't just an air pump they are hyper-precision air pump. They have to be because they are helping an already gravely ill person possibly with lung damage stay alive. That requires extremely accurate pressure and flow sensors that require very specialised electronics to read them. That alone makes them hard but then you also need software that's super reliable and a pump that can be precisely controlled. Its not impossible its just damn hard and can't be done with normal industrial parts which was what so many people proposed. If you aske the simple question - can it be reversed engineered? The answer is always yes, but that doesn't answer the question of how hard it is to do. That respirator company the guy from Real Engineering worked for released free to the world an older already certified respirator design. All anyone had to do was sign an agreement on the intellectual property and they could just start manufacturing respirators. The problem was many countries just didn't have the skills to make respirators or they couldn't get some of the parts. PLUS in many cases countries didn't have enough nurses trained to the level needed to operate & monitor respirators. This Dutch chip machinery isn't one technology its a collection of hyper-precision technologies anyone of which would be incredibly difficult to reverse engineer even if they handed over all the details and design documentation.
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  6. Also on air launching (and yes I have a degree in aerospace) its NOT just the saving on delta-v. They are only launching from around 10km at less at about 0.25km/s, while orbit is over 200km and over 7km/s. So the actual height and speed gains have little to do with anything. The actual advantages of air launching and they are incremental buy do add up. 1) You don't need to build a dedicated launch facility. All that is needed is a hanger and a convenient airfield. That's a cost saving. 2) Air launching includes a fully reusable first stage. That's a cost saving. 3) It can launch "on orbit" or closer to orbit. All normal launches require fuel in the upper stage to get from the launch sites global position over onto the global orbital position. Reducing the amount of fuel needed either lowers costs or allows for larger payloads. Where I think they didn't learn from previous systems. 1) Launcher 1 is significantly heavier 30t than Pegasus XL 23t which was a fair step of from Pegasus 18.5t. When you are staring with a vehicle around 50% bigger than your competitor and you have all the development hassle a smaller system would have been a lot smarter to start with and then build up from there. Starting out with something much smaller would have meant debugging all their systems both in the vehicle and in the manufacturing and launch processes with a cheaper vehicle and fewer people. They forgot that whole learning to walk before learning to run thing. 2) That extra weight meant a bigger more costly aircraft. Maybe the surplus 747s were cheaper to buy but a smaller 767 can lift those sorts of loads and with only 2 engines to service is a huge operational cost saving. Remember Pegasus used a modified L-1011 Tristar for most of its life. Every time a 747 flies compared to something like a 737 or 767 that's a lot of fuel burn and a lot of maintenance. This is a lesson everyone should have got from the Space Shuttle. Every launch of the Space shuttle meant putting 75tons into orbit before you did anything else. That's a lot of unnecessary cost and also why the ISS cost so much and why Crew Dragon is a massive step in the right direction. AND NO I am not an Elon Musk fanbot but I do cut him some slack on Space-X. 3) Their flight profile negated a very important aspect of what they learned with Pegasus. The wing on Pegasus allowed the vehicle to gain a lot of speed in horizontal flight at a point which is significantly more fuel efficient than trying to accelerate in vertical flight because there is still air drag at that point. That might not be a lot of difference but Pegasus works and Launcher One doesn't. 4) The most important thing they forgot is that space flight is hard and no matter how much money you have their will be failures. Go and look at the Pegasus launch list. They had 4 failures (or partial failures) in the first 10 launches, another at 14 and then 31 successful launches in a row. This stuff is hard and all the vehicles are built right on the razor's edge of failure.
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  7. You are in part right. The biggest problem with everything in space is logistics. How do you get stuff from point A to point B. And its not that different to what we do here on Earth now. Its just that most people have no idea of how much stuff we move. I am an aerospace engineer who moved into the Australian mining industry after meeting Harrison Schmitt (Apollo 17) in 2002. At that time he was talking up the possibility of mining the moon for Helium-3. I went looking for real practical experience and was lucky because at the time Australia went on a mining construction boom to feed China raw materials. What I got was an education in practical mining, site construction, maintenance, mineral processing, logistics and importantly INFRASTRUCTURE. Before you even start digging mine sites need a staggering array of infrastructure for power and water. I can tell within seconds that most of these people have never even visited a working mine. I have actually built them and worked on them. When real mining people see this stuff they can't stop laughing. Irrespective if you are Jeff Bezos who wants to shift all iron processing into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or mine an asteroid you need to get the iron to where you want it. That means bringing it down to the earths surface. The biggest payload carrying vehicle so far that could bring stuff back down was the Space Shuttle and it could bring 14tons down from LEO. I once worked on a min that did just over 20,000,000 tons a year of iron ore at an average of about 70% iron content by weight. So those 20 million tons of ore coverts to about 14 million tons of iron and if that 14 million tons was in orbit it would take 1 million Space Shuttle Flights to bring it down. Australia's annual production of iron ore is about 815,000,000 tons of iron ore. If you do the math to ship Australia's iron ore production up to LEO and then bring the iron back down its around 40million space shuttle flights a year. Even if we magically built a new super rocket 100times better that's still 400,000 flights a year. I will be honest until I was involved in mining I had no idea how much material we actually move these days. The logistics of world trade is simply staggering.
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  10. ​ @qownson4410  You're very much on the right thinking process but you're simply not going to air launch at 70,000-100,000 feet because there's so few jets capable of that high . But you are quite right that getting as as hight is is an important part of the discussion. Sorry if this is a long comment. I actually put in a A$720 Million proposal to the Australian government based around air launching. So I did a lot of research into this subject a few years ago. The carrier aircraft I proposed was a 2nd Gen White Knight One as used to carry Spaceship One that won the X-Prize. There's a really interesting item about White Knight One. It uses the same engines as the T-38 Talon (General Electric J85) which is the military version of the General Electric CJ610 engine used in the early Learjets (23, 24, 25 & 28). What many people don't realise is that the Learjet was originally proposed as a small tactical bomber and as such had military grade engines. So White Knight One like those early Learjets could fly up to 53,000 ft which is substantially higher than the normal 35-45,000 ft limits we see with current commercial aircraft. That 10,000 ft doesn't sound much but its significant because of where it is in the flight profile. If you had unlimited access to ex-military aircraft the Convair B-58 Hustler is the plane to consider because it could not only go high (63,000ft) but also very fast (Mach 2 at 40,000ft). Going back to why that extra altitude matters. Its simple high school level science. Getting into space is all about energy and there's 2 parts to that. Straight out altitude is the potential energy equation pe = mgh. Getting into orbit requires speed and that means kinetic energy ke = 1/2mv². So no matter the launch type every bit of altitude and speed you can get matters and saving fuel matters because that's your energy source. This is as Don Pettit put it "The Tyranny of the Rocket Equation" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWjdnvYok4I Air launching has the obvious saving that you are launching at speed and altitude. You simply avoid all the issues of the launch pad. That's when a rocket is at its least efficient because that's when its total mass is highest and the rocket nozzle needs to produce its highest thrust. Where air launching also saves fuel however is at the top of the launch profile. If you launch from a fixed location you have to burn fuel right at the top of the profile to get onto the desired orbit. This is the part of the launch sometimes referred to as "orbital insertion." You have to burn fuel getting onto the right trajectory. Air launching reduces the amount of fuel needed for that because at the moment you launch you are pointing in the right direction. Its sometimes referred to as "launching on orbit." So there's substantial fuel savings from air launching. At times its not that much and at other times its more. Irrespective every extra kilo you can lift is a bonus. That's even more significant if your payload has orbital adjustment motors because you end up with more useable fuel on the payload. The other consideration is construction of facilities. All you need for air launching is a hangar beside the runway. You don't need launch platforms or towers or spend money maintaining them or much else other than a convenient airport. People tend to forget those costs all add up. Again - sorry for the long comment but you are on the right thought process.
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  15. As an aerospace engineer you have hit one of the big nails on the head. The media way to often do stories like this where they talk about emissions and focus on a minor subject. As they say at the start aviation is 2.5% of global emissions. When we bailed out the banks from their own selfish stupidity during the GFC the estimate was something like $17 Trillion (with a 'T'). Some estimates put it closer to $40T. So we can spend $$Trillions converting the aviation industry to hydrogen and at best we'd cut 2.5% off global emissions. BUT if we spend several Trillion on the power industry and/or the shipping industry then we could make a real difference. FYI - I'm an aerospace engineer who works in industrial control systems and automation. Back in the 1990s when people first thought we'd need to change aviation over to hydrogen $$$ Millions was spent on research. Companies like Rolls Royce, GE, Siemens have ALREADY sorted out the engines. Hydrogen burns very fast and very hot compared to other fuels, but they had that all sorted out by the late 1990s. RIGHT NOW you can by from GE and Siemens gas turbines for power generation that will run on 50% hydrogen without modification. The GE 9HA for example can do 50% out of the box and they have the kit to go 100%. Here in Australia I am advocating that we go down that path. What's held back hydrogen is generating, storing and handling it. I have had to deal with Hydrogen in my work and can tell you from experience hydrogen is WAY HARDER to deal with than any other gas. In general it prefers to go bang than burn. Its why don't think it will be good for things like aviation and cars but will be brilliant for electricity generation because it will be in a contained environment. Yeah wind and solar will be huge but they both need grid level storage. At the size the world needs, hydrogen is the technology that can be done at that scale.
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  17. @UCOaDHPHrsXLZCBjlzeLU74Q I'm not American, I'm Australian but went to college in America. So I know the Americans quite well. I know their attitudes towards taking things. I wasn't being pro-American I was replying to the sarcasm of your notion that Bruce could mine an asteroid. Just so you know for future reference. There's actually 2 versions of American politics. Its not surprising most people don't understand that because they are both what the rest of the world identifies as right wing. They are just slightly different versions of right wing. A bit like Apple OS and Android are both smart phone systems - same, same but different. On one side are the Realists and the other the Liberals. The Realists are mostly Republicans and in their view humans are greedy and selfish so they justify everything they take, like they did in Iraq, because that's human nature. They don't care who's in charge so long as they can do what they want and take what they want. These are the goons who went into places and overthrew or helped overthrow democratically elected governments and installed dictatorships. The Liberals are the same in many ways but instead of narcissism they have the "we are superior culture" line and its hardwired into their brains that they have to make the whole world American. Its a hangover from when the British wanted to make the whole world British. These are the people who often turn up after the Realists have hammered a nation and try and install an American style democracy. Either way if the American Realists or American Liberals start interfering in your nation its a mess AND YES they have done heaps to Australia. Don't misread that either. I love America and their people because they do some amazing stuff but there stinking foul politics is something they should burn.
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  28.  @ChickensAndGardening  Not suggesting but stating it for a fact. The idea you could just move an asteroid from where they are to Low Earth Orbit is nothing but Star Trek fantasy. Here's something I tell people who go on about this nonsense. Jeff Bezos has claimed he wants to move the heavy industries like iron ore processing into Low Earth Orbit where there's lots of sun light 24/7 to use and you don't have to worry about pollution. One of the iron ore mines I once worked on has a capacity of about 20 million tons a year. Its a good example because the math is very easy. At about 70% iron by weight that produces about 14 million tons of raw iron a year ready to make stuff out of. The Space Shuttle could bring back from LEO 14 tons of payload which was about 13-1/2 tons more than anything else. So if you want to bring back those 14 million tons of iron ore from LEO it would take about 1 million Space Shuttle flights. Australia in total produces about 815 million tons of iron ore a year which would require over 40 million Space Shuttle Flights. Even if we made a new magic rocket that was 100 times better than the Space Shuttle that's still 400,000 flights a year. And so you know Australia produces less that 1/3rd of the worlds iron ore. Sorry but its 99.99% space fantasy nonsense. The other 0.01% is however very interesting. There are some very rare materials available from places like the moon where for those very rare substances the option of mining them in space is plausible. World Platinum production is about 215 tons a year and our needs there have been growing. If we can get a rocket that makes the logistics practical then that's plausible. If Helium-3 were to become the main fuel for nuclear fusion that needs about 5-9 Space Shuttle Flights to power the entire planet each year. But the issue there is nobody yet has a power station that runs on Helium-3. At the end of the day its just guys selling visions of the future.
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