Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "ABC News In-depth" channel.

  1. AEROSPACE ENGINEER HERE: I did my degree in American in the late 80s when Reagan was spending tons of money. Our department was flush with DARPA funding for Reagan's Star Wars. In my final year we had to do 2 or more advanced option classes which we shared with the post graduate students who also had to present conference level papers. One of my classes was in Spacecraft Dynamics which is the single hardest class I ever had. Its all about how you make spacecraft point in space. It sounded real cool when we signed up and then the math started. In that class was the single most mathematically gifted engineer I've ever met. We were all pretty smart but he made us all feel dumb. He was actually able to simulate a solution to making a laser cannon point accurately in space. The problem is that its not like a satellite or the Hubble space telescope which rotate and point very slowly. Shooting down missiles is more like skeet shooting in that its all very rapid recognition, movement and shooting. What really killed off Star Wars 1.0 and this will still hold true today are 2 basic facts. 1) Lasers reflect off shiny surfaces. So all you need to do is make the surface of your missile a mirror finish and lasers become fairly useless. 2) The basic mechanics of shooting at something that accurately at an object that might be 1,000km away or more moving at hypersonic speeds is absurd. People just don't get how big space actually is. Even the space close to the Earth that we call Low Earth Orbit is a massive amount of territory.
    109
  2. 97
  3. ENGINEER HERE: There isn't one of these projects that doesn't have some merit and some real payback to us the general population of Australia. The real problem is HOW these projects are planned from the start and that includes the contracts that are rarely negotiated in good faith by either or both the government or the contractors. So for everyone interested here's 4 basic project items and for anyone who has ever done a project and wondered what went wrong simply ask which of these wasn't done well enough. Sorry if some of this is longish but I hope it will explain a number of things and how to NOT have projects go wrong. 1) SPECIFICATION: This is the basic what, why and how. What are we going to build - a bridge, a road, a building, a sports stadium or even a submarine. Why are we building this bridge, road, building, sports stadium or submarine. The what and why don't need much detail. Its can be as simple as, We need this bridge to go over that river because the old bridge needs replacing. BUT the HOW must be detailed and most importantly it must explain what STANDARDS must be met. Most people and especially lawyers don't realise that most engineering standards are NOT required by law or regulation. There's actually very few standards that are required to be met by law and yes this stuns most people. So its incredibly important that every standard that a project needs is absolutely listed and described for its applicable use IN THE CONTRACT(s). The single biggest issue with lawyers and engineering projects is NOT what they put in the contracts but what they leave out. See the comment at the bottom. 2) RESOUCES: In all engineering projects there are 3 main resources - labour, machinery and money. Labour from top to bottom needs to not only be available but also the required skills needed need to be available. This is an area where non-engineering human resource people are utterly hopeless. For all their claims (and I have experience with this issue) they CANNOT tell the difference between an mechanic and mechanical engineer, electrician and an electrical engineer or any other engineering skill set. Machinery is another monster bug for engineers. Its no use planning to rent a 50ton crane when you need to lift a 100ton object AND YES THAT HAPPENS. You have to have people who know their subject plan what they need and when they need it. If you suddenly have to rent things like cranes, digging machines, scaffold,... etc. the people supplying those services can charge whatever they like because they know that holding up a billion dollar project is worse than paying ridiculous money to rent something. Money is the worst thing engineers have to deal with because there's always some clown waving an economics degree like a caveman swinging a club screaming "What's the business case for that?" or "Who's going to pay for that?" In 99.9% of cases the reason why its costing more than planned is because the economics clown interfered back at the planning stage. 3) TECHNICAL VIABLITY: This is something that most engineers hate because it involves Donald Rumsfeld's 3 knowns. There's known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Planning is about having as many known knowns as practical and the best way to have that is CLEAR SPECIFICATIONS. Think about the Apollo program. It had the very simple 2 PART specification. 1 - get a man to the moon and 2 - get him back SAFELY. That was why they could go there 9 times and land 6 times and not lose anyone in the process. The times they lost people were in training accidents where they were less clear about what they were doing and people were rushed and NOT checking properly. 4) COMPLETION DATE which is also called CLOSE OUT: This is possibly the worst thing done in all projects and again goes back to the specifications. If a job is NOT clearly specified then its gets very murky to what it means to be finished. Despite what people might think an unclear completion is music to a contractor because its easy to make a lot of money late in a project. Most of the major items are already in place so its mostly labour or variations and both are more money on top of profit. As we can all see from some of the enquiries into the Big 4 consultancies getting repeat work is what they want more than anything. In an engineering the equivalent to that are the contract variations at the end of a project. The way to avoid that is by (right up front) detailing in the specification: "This is what we want and this is what we mean by being finished." Go check any project you know of and you'll quickly see the problems that happen when one of these things is not done. And a perfect example of bad planning is Snowy 2.0. Yes as an engineer I can emphatically state that it is a project with merit and eventually we the Australian people will benefit from it. HOWEVER when you plan on building a power station you also need to connect it to the power grid. That was NOT done in the initial plans and that's where the biggest cost blowouts are. Plus the contractors KNOW they have us by the short and curlies because what's the point of building Snowy 2.0 if you don't connect it to the grid. It has to be connected so they have us. Its a perfect example of the problem of what's left out of the contract.
    28
  4. 12
  5. 12
  6. I'm Australian but went to college in America (late 80s) on a sports scholarship and I can barely believe what's happened. I love America and the people and especially college sport, but your politics has been out of control for decades. I was even able to see it back in the 80s. I was there during the 87 primary season and remember the Gary Hart scandal which was a so what because everyone knew what Washington was like and that was years before Clinton got blown. Even during the Clinton blow job scandal Newt Gingrich was banging his secretary. I did aerospace engineering but a bunch of my friends were pre-law and they'd drag me into their conversations which gave me an interesting education on the US Constitution. My only real political or legal education was studying Orwell (1984 & Animal Farm) in High School so I'd argue that any nation can fall into a totalitarian dictatorship if it wasn't careful. My friends always argued back that was impossible because of the "System of Checks & Balances." These days I consider the US Constitution one of humanities finest achievements but its NOT perfect and it has one major flaw none of my college friends ever considered. That flaw is in granting so many freedoms allows people with nefarious motives to exploit it. That's where the Heritage Foundation goon plays his part. Heritage like CATO and other Washington Think Tanks isn't just some place where people think its where they plan to get things they want without any consideration of the consequences to others. That's what scares me about American Libertarians. Its not that defending liberty is bad in fact defending liberty is one of the noblest ideas. But American Libertarians demand the liberty to strip other people of their liberties. They are at their core authoritarians who believe there's 2 types of laws. The laws they don't believe apply to them and the laws they believe apply to everyone else.
    11
  7. 11
  8. 11
  9. 9
  10. 9
  11. 7
  12. 7
  13. 6
  14. 5
  15. 5
  16. 5
  17. 5
  18. ENGINEER HERE: This is reasonably easy to understand and my apologies if this gets longish. Its ANOTHER outcome of what we now call neoliberal economics. The short answer is we need more supply because anyone who ever did an economics course (and I did as an elective) gets told that IF demand is greater than supply then PRICES GO UP. In Australia we have built vast arrays of solar and wind BUT we have not built any new large bulk capacity BUT we have turned of several like Hazelwood in Victoria and Liddell in NSW. The last time Australia built a power station with more than 1,000MW of base load capacity was 1993 when our population was 17.6 million and we are now just over 26 million. For sure Callide C (810 MW) in 2001, Millmerran (852 MW) in 2002 and Kogan Creek (750MW) in 2007 helped but there's another 5.2 million people in the country since Kogan Creek was commissioned. For sure Snowy 2.0 at 2,000MW will help but that's not a base load generator its a storage system. Something else still has to generate that 2,000MW. Bottom line we need to build new major base load power stations in South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales and plan on building future major base load power stations in Queensland and Western Australia. To give you an idea of the costs involved the Hinckley Point C nuclear power station with 2 x 1,630 MW units is now expected to cost £35 Billion (about AU$66.5 Billion). So the cost of 1 of those 1,630 MW units is about AU$33.3 Billion each. Based on what power stations have either closed or are going to close through age we'd need 1 or 2 in South Australia, 3 or 4 in Victoria, 4 or 5 in NSW and 1 or 2 in Queensland. In total that's 9 units to produce 14,400 MW up to 13 units producing 20,800 MW. The combined total of Australia's coal fired plants is just over 24,700 MW. That's just to replace lost capacity from power stations just getting too old to keep them running. It has nothing to do with climate change or anything else. That's between AU$300 and AU$433 Billion just to fix the stupidity of the last 25+ years it doesn't account for future population growth and we have some people wanting us to grow to as many as 55 or 65 million. The long answer on how we got here is below. I started informally studying economics because I got so frustrated from clowns waving economics degrees interfering in projects. What I found was that things like Reaganomics and Thatcherism didn't end they morphed in to this thing we now call neoliberalism or Chicago School economics if you're an academic. At its core is the line expressed by Ronald Reagan himself "government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem." In practice it has "the belief" (and its only a belief) "That anything a government does the private sector can do better." Part of that was Milton Freidman's "Greed is good" line because in his view greed drives efficiency because its financially rewarded. Milton also gave us that the free market can and will solve everything because it self corrects. Australians heard a version of this recently when Philip Lowe governor of the RBA said that the housing crisis was just the market correcting itself. Philip Lowe's comment about the housing market SHOULD CONCERN US ALL about the energy market, because part of the neoliberal ideology is that regulators should do as little as possible and let the market self correct. The 2008 GFC told us that's nonsense. It didn't self correct and there were $TRILLIONS in BAIL OUTS. The current housing crisis tells us that's nonsense because its not self correcting. The current inflation driven by supply chain issues and profiteering tells us that's nonsense because its not self correcting. The current energy crisis tells us that's nonsense because its not self correcting. This neoliberal nonsense of self correcting markets just DOES NOT WORK for certain things. Housing and energy being 2 of those things because they take time. It takes months to approve and build a house and longer if its something like a multistory apartment complex. Power stations take years to approve and if they are large scale can take years to build. Education is similar it takes 13 years of primary and secondary education and another 4 doing a degree, cadetship or apprenticeship just to make a functioning adult. There is no business case for spending $2-300,000 dollars on a 5 year old hoping that in 17 years they'll do something. The new nuclear plant the British are building, Hinckley Point C, took 7 years to design and approve. It will take 10 years (at least) to complete and power up with first power around 2028/29. It will take at least 15 years to break even on costs and that's only if its energy is sold at higher rates. There is no viable business case in the "Greed is good" neoliberal model that says you can spend £35 Billion and the break even point is 30+ years in the future. During an engineering consult circa 2016 I discovered that Australia not only hadn't built any new large scale bulk delivery power stations since the late 1990s we haven't even got any proposals on the table to discuss. Snowy Hydro 2.0 might have a 2,000 MW power station but its NOT a generator its a pumped hydro energy STORAGE system. Those 2,000 MW have to be generated somewhere else. This is the basis reality the neoliberals have wrong. There are some things that Governments have to do because they don't need a viable business case for shareholders. CEOs need profits while Governments needs a functioning economy. Governments measure themselves by GDP which is dependent on employment, wages and the effects of things like education and health care. Its complex while a CEO's task is simple we made $X and that gets $Y per share - done. When Governments build power stations the outcome is measured in GDP growth. They don't have to care if it makes just 0.01% profit or even if it loses money. So long as the outcome is GDP growth which can happen when companies can start or expand on cheap energy then so what. More people get employed. More people can buy things that other people make - including houses. So when we privatised our energy sector back in the 1990s we went from a system that was measured as part of GDP growth and designed to create jobs and growth to a system that had but one purpose. Milton Freidman said it in his famous 1970 New York Time essay "There is one and only one social responsibility of business—to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits..." If you ask why none of the so called experts in this video have NO ANSWERS its very simple THEY DON'T HAVE ANY. They all come from think tanks (like Tony Woods), lobbyists (like Ben Barnes) OR they are economists, lawyers, business leaders, academics,.... They are all people without any motivation to solve anything. This is something British Rebel Economist Gary Stevenson (here on YT) points out that is WRONG with current economics - too many of the people speaking have no motivation in solving anything. And why don't they dare talk about solutions whether they be hydrogen, solar, wind, nuclear and there's a whole raft of nuclear technologies to discuss.
    5
  19. 4
  20. 4
  21. 4
  22. 4
  23. 4
  24. That's absolutely right. I'm an engineer and without any doubt when you consider the technical functionality the nuclear power option should have always been on the table. Over 10 years ago when the subs were first being mentioned I happened to be working with an American electrician who had been in the US Navy as a nuclear power plant operator on aircraft carriers. He explained a few things. We have wide open deep water territory which is where nuclear subs are simply work better. The only places where diesel electric subs (which are typically smaller) have any advantage is in Littoral waters (close to shore) where its noisy and their size makes them viable. If you actually have a look at the original French deal it was never really viable and made no sense in 2 key areas. Quick note the French Sub offered from DCNS is the Shortfin Barracuda which is the non-nuclear powered version of the Barracuda which the French Navy has. FIRST - The Collins class has basic crew of 42 and the Shortfin Barracuda requires 60. We have only been able to bring a 4th out of 6 Collins into active service because the RAN took a Frigate out of service. The real issue (that's not EVER been discussed) was how did the RAN intend to crew these 12 submarines when they can barely crew 4 now. This is going to be an ever bigger issue with the Brits and Yanks because despite the fact the British Astute and American Virginia class subs being of similar size and purpose to the Barracuda they both have bigger crews (Astute 98, Virginia 135) making them even less viable. SECOND - The actual cost per sub. The French Navy paid just over $2 Billion AUD for their nuclear powered Barracudas and yet DCNS was asking Australia to pay $7.5Billion AUD for each of the non-nuclear powered Shortfin Barracudas. Imagine walking into a car dealer who offers a Renault or Peugeot for $75,000 when YOU KNOW he's selling the same car with the upgraded engine to others for $20,000. Any reasonable person tells the salesman to "** off" and walks out the door. On the diplomatic side - we should have asked DCNS for the price on nuclear powered Barracudas and if they had said anything over $2.5Billion each ($30 Billion all up) we walk. There's no secret to what these subs cost its all available on public platforms like Wikipedia. What has to happen without any doubt is that we (the Australian people) are presented with a plan on how we will train and crew these subs and MOST importantly deal with them at the end of life. Whether its 8 or 12 or some other number in 40 years time we will have a bunch of decommissioned nuclear reactors to deal with. BEFORE WE START THIS we need to know what we are going to do with those reactors.
    4
  25. 3
  26.  @sportsfanivosevic9885  NO I am factoring in how much military contracts blow out over time. You are right - Collins compared to AUKUS looks like a bargain, but Collins compared to other current non-nuclear programs is a dog's breakfast that we should not ever want to do again. As an engineer we should have been having sensible public discussion on this years ago. This is the thing that aggravates me the most in this. All we have are clowns who are pumping their NARRATIVES with no thought to what we actually need. When the Collins replacement first came up circa 2006/07 and they emphatically said we will not go nuclear I was working with an American who was an ex-US Navy nuclear power plant technician and operator. He'd served on Aircraft Carriers, but they still had the same power reactors as the subs. Its just the ACs have 2 and the subs have 1. He EXPLAINED that with Australia's vast ocean areas why diesel-electric was stupid. The biggest factor is the speed nuclear subs can maintain. Subs like the Astute (30kts) are 50% faster than a Collins (20kts) and do not have to slow down each day to breath air. HE ALSO EXPLAINED part of the American design philosophy and that revolved about having very little automation. This is why American subs have huge crews compared to others. The French sub is 60, the British Astute is 98 but the Virginia crew is 138. This is what I find so aggravating, there is no nuance in the public discussion. Its all opinion, narrative, rage, outrage and whatboutisms. I'm lucky in that I once worked with someone who could explain this stuff and I am fortunate to remember it.
    3
  27. 3
  28. 3
  29. 3
  30. 3
  31. 3
  32. 3
  33. 3
  34. 3
  35. 3
  36. 3
  37. Engineer here 1) There's nothing that says AI drones would work at anything. You're simply reading way too much into the RIDICULOUSLY OVER HYPED capabilities of AI. 2) The entire AUKUS program is ridiculous and not because its nuclear. I have supported for almost 20 years that our next submarines should be nuclear. In 2006 I had a technician who was an ex-US Navy nuclear power plant tech/operator who'd worked on aircraft carriers which have exactly the same nuclear reactors as the subs. There'd been some news story on what Australia should have after Collins and he simply crushed the stupidity that Australia should have diesel electric subs with the amount of ocean area we have to patrol. The 2 best reasons AUKUS is ridiculous are: 1) The cost. At $268 Billion for 8 Subs that's $33.5 Billion each over their lifetime. The basic cost of a Virginia class is $5.5 Billion. So where is the other $28 Billion going? No one is even asking that. So I did some research 2 years ago and even building and maintaining all that I could find listed and then multiplying the costs the closest I came to $268 was around $155 Billion. I have discussed this with other engineers and there's at least $100 billion none of us can work out where its going. 2) Crewing the Virginia class Virginia class subs need almost 140 submariners while the Collins requires 60. Australis has struggled with getting enough submariners qualified to operate 4 of the 6 Collins class subs we have. Just to crew 2 Virginia class subs would take MORE THAN the current RAN Submariner corps. Who's going to crew the other 6? An ex-RAN Submarine commander was asked about this on 4-Corners and his answer was: "We'll have to do better." YES that was his answer. Nothing about how. Nothing about training. Nothing about where these people would come from. He had nothing, nada, zip or diddley squat AND THAT'S THE BEST ANSWER SO FAR.
    3
  38. 2
  39. 2
  40. 2
  41. 2
  42. 2
  43. 2
  44. 2
  45. 2
  46. 2
  47. 2
  48. ENGINEER HERE: It doesn't matter because once the Australian people realise just how badly this disaster has been put together they are going to go nuts. 1) The Virginia-class is simply not suited to Australia's navy. yes the technology is arguably the best there is but the Americans have a different philosophy to other nations. Not only do they build large but they have large crews. The Virginia-class has a basic crew of 140, the Astute is 100 and the French Barracuda is 60 like the Collins-class. The German 212-class which isn't nuclear but is Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) has a crew of 27. Singapore has a variation of the German 212. We don't have enough submariners to crew 2 Virginia-class subs let alone 5. 2) We are being taken to the cleaners on the costs. When you look at what these subs have as delivered (as in what the US, British or French navies pay) then we are being screwed to a level of absurdity that should horrify people. Its not the only Australian Navy Contract that needs to be publicly questioned. - The Arafura-class offshore patrol vessels are more than 10 times the cost of the Armidale-class boats they are replacing. Plus the need 30% more crew and weigh over 5 times as much meaning their operational costs will be much higher. - The Hunter Class Frigates are over 3 times the price the British Navy is paying for the same vessel. There is nothing in the variation or that they are being made in Australia that can justify that. I have actually done a ALTERNATIVE project costing on the submarines. I have 2 Astute-class variations and then 4 AUKUS with 6 German 212s. that would be a sub fleet that would be VERY HARD for Australia to crew. - The nuke boats are all built in England with an Australian work force on site of 6,500. The first 212 would be built in Germany with an Australian workforce of 1,000 and the last 5 built here in Australia. - I have included some borderline outrageous bonuses for the Australian people working on them overseas as a means to getting it done on time and on budget. - I have included costs for port upgrades in both Western and Eastern Australia based on publicly available information. - I have included costs for disposal of the subs after their service using parts of Olympic Dam in South Australia. Why because its already a site with 30% of the World's known Uranium. It can't be contaminated any worse than it already is. I have TIRED to OVER COST things and am still AU$115 Billion *UNDER the lower AU$268 Billion we are being told it will cost Even if I stick a AU$50 Billion contingency on top of all the other contingencies I already have in the project I still can't explain where AU$65 Billion let alone AU$165 Billion is going. MAYBE THIS IS WHY ACTUAL PROJECT DETAILS ARE HARD TO COME BY.
    2
  49. 2
  50. 2
  51. 2
  52. 2
  53. 2
  54. 2
  55. 2
  56. 2
  57. 2
  58. 2
  59. 1
  60. 1
  61. 1
  62. 1
  63. You are a combination of 1/2 right and 1/2 utterly wrong. Your are right the price increases are straight out because of privatisation. As Milton Freidman said “There is one and only one social responsibility of business—to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits.” As for the reliability of networks you are 100% WRONG. You can get just as much unreliability from private systems as from public. Look at what happened in Texas a couple of years ago. When 5 year old kids are freezing to death in their beds don't try and say private markets work like the M0R0N from Harvard did. You can also look back to Enron. What they actually got caught doing was an unusual form of market manipulation. They'd deliberately trip out a power station every so often. Usually in the late afternoon when there was the daily surge. What that did was spike the local power market at a peak time by causing an artificial supply shortage. Despite losing the income from that power station their other power stations would make a killing off what ever reserve power they had available. As for break downs. I'm an engineer and you can get slack people in both public and private sector employment. These days its a matter of rewards. Traditionally there were none in the public sector. They never tried anything like "If you guys keep the power on by keeping the system well maintained we'll give you a bonus based on performance." And so you know I don't know of many private sector companies that have reward systems for maintenance. I have done maintenance engineering and it sucks because all anybody in the accounting systems see are costs. They never see any benefits. The problem with maintenance is that the better you do your job the less evidence your doing it well exists. Poor maintenance has lots of evidence. Good maintenance has nothing. Famous example of that is QANTAS the Australian airline. Early one when they got their first 747s they had a corporate risk assessment done that said you can't EVER afford to lose a plane. So they built the best maintenance any airline had ever seen. it was so good other airlines took their 747s to it and IT MADE MONEY. After NOT having any 747s fall out of the sky and after having made money QANTAS sold off that division. That's what engineers get for doing maintenance properly.
    1
  64. 1
  65. 1
  66. 1
  67. 1
  68. 1
  69. 1
  70. 1
  71. 1
  72. 1
  73. 1
  74. 1
  75. 1
  76. 1
  77. 1
  78. 1
  79. On the demonization of other countries for the sake of globalization, I think you have that a little flipped around. I don't think they are demonising countries FOR globalization but to deconstruct globalization. America (again thanks to Trump 🤷‍♀🤷‍♂) is trying to de-globalize and that's the one policy of Trumps that Biden is running with. In fact it possible to claim, if you consider the computer chips, that Biden is even more hawkish than Trump on that subject. On China there 's a couple of interesting things that are starting to come out. Peter Zeihan talks about their demographics and its a disaster that's slowly eating the Chinese economic model. The 1 child policy was way more successful than anyone realised and it was kept in place for way to long. Those factories full of cheap labor have a problem. As the older workers retire there's not enough younger people to replace them. Its created a labor shortage and that's caused wages to rise making China less competitive. If you then add in what Biden has done on the microchip front and Chinese industry has a problem. Its really quite simple after exporting jobs fore several decades America wants those jobs back in America. Because of Trump's hawkishness that's being pursued aggressively. AND it includes dragging jobs out of Europe. Sure the yanks will still buy 1,000s of Audis, BMers, Mercs and Porsches. They'll just be made & assembled in Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Texas,... There'll still be some bits made in Europe but most of it will be in America. Never forget in America nothing wins elections more effectively than jobs.
    1
  80. 1
  81. 1
  82. 1
  83. 1
  84. 1
  85. 1
  86. 1
  87. 1
  88. 1
  89. 1
  90. 1
  91. 1
  92. 1
  93.  @JamesTulip  Great reply. On the first point I 1/2 mostly agree because I think one of the biggest mistakes made too many times is relying on America to lead outright rather than being more collaborative at the leadership level. Often you must have a clear person leading, but even then they need support team. Too often too many of us just sit back and wait for America to do everything or at least most of it. This is a major flaw in NATO and will eventually repeat in AUKUS because it will eventually become JAUKUS, SKAUKUS or CANAUKUS or some other multi-national behemoth incapable of doing anything like NATO and the UN are now. On the second point your are 1,000,000% right. America has some incredible systemic issues. I used to warn my American friends (because I had studied Orwell) that ANY society could fall into a totalitarian state. That was what Orwell was actually warning about rather than being specifically against communism. They used to tell me that it was impossible for that to happen to America because VIA the Constitution there were the systems of Checks & Balances. Well thanks to Mitch McConnell the Senate is a disaster and thanks to the Federalist Society SCOTUS is a catastrophe and they are the 2 main parts of the Checks & Balances to keep Congress, the Whitehouse, the Military and other agencies from going too far. So, sadly the system is broken and wont get fixed because there are too many people with too much vested interest and are making mountains of money from the broken system that they helped break. On the 3rd point you are also correct and it goes to the first point of over-relying on American leadership. On the 4th point you are even more correct. Australia MUST focus on better relations with the major economies of Asia. As to the South Pacific, our FAILURES there are so bad it should be seen as a national embarrassment that will take years to fix. None of those nations should respect us until we EARN IT BACK and I can't scream that loud enough. I am going to be on the Steve Keen & Friends podcast in a few hours and might bring up a couple of these points because they are so on topic. Just note it will be at 2:00am EST.
    1
  94.  @roughhabit9085  Go look at the YT Channel the Analysisnews hosted by Paul Jay. He has recently re-posted an interview he did with Gore Vidal in 2005. Its titled "Mini Doc: Gore Vidal's History of the National Security State" Its right in line with your quote from Mencken As to your second point on food production. Sorry but there is no evidence at all that its guaranteed that a government in charge of food production will cause mass starvation although I will agree that it has happened. One of the most notable times was Mao's "Great Leap Forward" when he pulled people off the farms and shoved them into factories. It would have worked had he given the remaining farmers tractors and mechanised sowing and reaping machinery. What you are claiming is the same sort of nonsense that Milton Friedman claimed which is that governments can't do anything right. I'll give you 4 things on that. 1) The Apollo Program not only did as intended "Get a man to the Moon and safely return him to the Earth" but also gave America such a major technological boost that the money spent was easily recovered via American industry exploiting it. FYI - I did aerospace engineering in America in the late 80s. After the Challenger accident when there were calls for NASA to be disbanded the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics commissioned a study by an economist as to the value of NASA. Due to time constraints the report focused on Apollo. They found that by 1986 Apollo had returned $9:50 for every $1:00 spent making it the most profitable investment in history at that time. Considering that the things it returned money on (industrial output) ahs NOT stopped then that $9:50 is likely to be much higher these days. 2) Here in Australia like many other countries we privatised our power industry on the promise that: "competition would provide better services at lower prices" We now like many other places pay much higher costs for electricity. 3) Private Industry constantly claims it is overregulated and taxes are too high. FIRST - deregulation hasn't helped any industry or shareholders BUT IT HAS massively helped the top 1% make around $200 Trillion since the 1970s. SECOND - deregulation hasn't helped the general population anywhere. Not only has it not delivered for the average person but many services have decline, most consumer protection has evaporated and (1 I hate) is that its lead to things like the Boeing Max-8 where they built a plane that was always going to crash. 4) Here in Australia we have spent over AU$20 Billion on consultants (PwC, KPMG,.......etc) in the last decade or so and yea that number has stunned us. Those consultants were hired by successive governments from both sides to help various government departments do their job better. You will not find many who think we got a damn thing out of that AU$20 Billion because nothing is working any better and that's because most of the consultants are ex-Government employees. Its just 1 giant ongoing scam that was started by Margret Thatcher. Its spread across the entire developed world. So yeah I get Milton Friedman's point that the government can suck, but the solutions his advocates have served up have FAILED and FAILED and FAILED.
    1
  95. 1
  96. 1
  97. 1
  98. 1
  99. 1
  100. 1
  101. 1
  102. 1
  103. 1
  104. 1
  105. 1
  106. 1
  107. 1
  108. ​ @MrRatclima  As I have said to others its all symptomatic of neoliberal economics, but people need to realise that neoliberalism more than just economics. Its a whole set of ideas that includes political and social ideology. At its core is the elitist view that people are incompetent and they need to be managed. To do that "we (the elite) have to have the freedom from law to do what we need to do to manage the rest of you." That's where the American Libertarians get their "We need the liberty to strip you of your liberty." political ideology from. Its a weird from of Orwellian logic that comes from what we'd normally consider the political Right rather than the political Left. Its incredibly arrogant and a lot of the hard core neoliberals are insanely arrogant. Their establishments are places like Harvard, Yale and the University of Chicago. Most of their economics comes straight out of Milton Freidman's "Greed is good" and "Corporation's have no other task than profit." mantras. Freidman was a professor at the University of Chicago. Neoliberals manage governments through consultancies and in that game the biggest of the consultancies is McKinsey which was started by James McKinsey another professor from the University of Chicago. They have infected the American justice system and the main player there is the lobbying think tank the Federalist Society which was started by students at Harvard, Yale and the University of Chicago. They felt their universities were the bastions of real judicial knowledge. Right now the 9 on the SCOTUS consist of 4 Harvard, 4 Yale and Notre Dame who's a known member of the Federalist Society. If you really want to understand neoliberalism better. There's a lecture series by Damon Silvers over on the UCP IIPP page here on YT. Warning there's almost 6 hours but its worth your time if you really want to know what neoliberalism is about. The first one is titled "Understanding Neoliberalism as a System of Power" and even if you only watch that one you'll understand neoliberalism better than most people.
    1
  109.  @davidcarey9135  Sorry this reply is long but I’d like to know what you think. I had a stunning bit of enlightenment recently. I was watching Steve Keen explain his modelling work to a couple of British students. At one point Steve jumped on his favourite topic of slamming classical & neo-classical economists like William Nordhaus and their inability to properly model things. In the middle of this rant, he suddenly said "They don't even have energy in their models." As an engineer that stuns me because EVERYTHING in human society needs energy and the means to produce & use it. This is why economists have nothing but vacuum on the energy crisis. They don't have any suggestions let alone solutions. They don't even have hot air because hot air requires energy. Its like they just did what some others I have encountered. They drew a line in the dirt and said everything on that side of the line is an engineering problem and has nothing to do with us. I have this idea I call "Engine Theory." I like to explain it in terms of ancient Egypt because that was the world’s first economy. Prof. Mark Blyth (Brown U.) has repeatedly pointed out a Bank of England report (Q1 2014) that has 2 papers that explain what money is and how it’s created BY WORK. The problem is as any engineer will tell you all work is a function of using energy. As in work is produced by converting energy via an "engine" hence the name Engine Theory. Simply put, anything that converts energy into work is an engine (mechanical, biological... whatever). Smith & Marx both termed everything in terms of labour. I think they got it wrong because there’s other ways to do work than just through labour. My idea is that all work stems from the conversion of energy into work no matter if it’s done by a person, animal or machine. Therefore, all economic value comes from energy being consumed or tapped by these “engines.” The fundamental rate of return is actually a function of energy efficiency. The better you consume and use energy the better the rate of return and more wealth is generated. Going back in ancient Egypt they had slaves that sowed & reaped food, built houses, roads and monuments and they were fuelled by food. They had ox that pulled ploughs & heavy wagons and horses that pulled light wagons & chariots and they were fuelled by fodder. The ox & horses aren’t too dissimilar than the comparison of diesel to petrol vehicles. The Egyptians also had sail boats powered by the wind to go up & down the Nile. The difference was that the sails tapped a natural energy source (the wind) rather than consumed fuel like the slaves, ox & horses. Irrespective they had a variety of engines because different engines do certain types of work better and more efficiently and that’s a major part of Engine Theory. In Engine Theory you have different engines for different tasks, and you evaluate them on their efficiency to do that task. In Egypt they could have pulled ploughs with slaves but that’s not as good as an ox. They could have pulled chariots with ox, but that’s not as good as ahorse because chariots need speed. This is why today all the wind, solar, nuclear and other people proclaiming “we have the solution that will save humanity” are all wrong. They have to start seeing themselves as PART of an overall combined solution instead of the single magical “does it all” solution. Then there was the industrial revolution when we started making better engines that could convert fuel (quite literally) by the mountain and with it do mountains of work making mountains of wealth. Plus, some of these news engines didn’t do work and instead they produced energy that other engines could tap instead of converting fuel. We call these things power stations, and they could not only make more energy but do it better allowing energy to be more readily usable across a broader economic landscape. This is why I think economists have it so wrong. Karl Polanyi said you can’t commodify people because they are people. I think energy is the similar. You can’t commodify it because it works at such a fundamental economic level. Neoliberals are trapped in their own ideology and just see it as another thing they MUST marketize because marketization is the best way to distribute anything and everything. Its an ideology not backed up by real world experience. I think a lot of people realise the neoliberals are wrong they just don’t know how to argue it and that’s what I am trying to do. I started informally studying economics out of the frustration of clowns waving economics degrees interfering in projects. Part of the argument is: If work creates value (as economists say), then if they don't include the energy to do that work then they have been WRONG since the dawn of civilisation because the work that has been done has always required energy. It didn’t matter if the fuel was food, fodder or the energy was the wind. They had to convert fuel & energy into work. The massive change was the industrial revolution when we started producing BULK CHEAP energy. The bug in the neoliberal computer (as Mark Blyth puts it) is that they thought they could commodify it like they think they can do with everything and that’s just NOT TRUE as Polanyi pointed out. And this is where the neoliberals have utterly stuffed up. They switched the BULK CHEAP energy systems from economic drivers into profit machines making energy more expensive and with it everything else. That's made everything else less economically efficient because all of the work became more expensive. Unless we can flip that back we’re stuffed. The energy transition won’t make any difference so long as it remains a for profit system because the economics won’t change. We not only have to change to cleaner energy to save the planet but (economically speaking) more efficient to save all our economies which are already on the precipice of a major catastrophe. We dodged a big event in 2008 but the bail outs only made the clowns at the top think they can keep gambling with our future even more. I don’t know if you’re aware but the global FX-Swap market which is a glorified casino now has a betting pool of US$100 Trillion, which is around 5 times the size it was in 2008. Bizarrely NONE of it’s on any balance sheet because of the nature of FX-Swaps and how accountants account for them. Most of it isn’t even held by banks. It’s held by non-banking entities gambling on currency shifts. All it will take is the wrong clown to make the wrong mistake and 2008 will seem like a bad fart in an elevator because there won’t be a way off of this elevator as it plumets down the shaft. Sorry, this was so long but I'd like to know what you think.
    1
  110. ​ @davidcarey9135  No, No you misunderstand. The fuel type is irrelevant THE COST of the energy to BOTH society and industry is the important thing. You are totally right about Britain being the first to use coal at scale gave them a growth spurt. The most important thing there is they changed to a better "engine." Remember the rail industry changed from coal to diesel and electricity after WW2 and there was NOTHING forcing it except they were better engines economically. This is something I am trying to get all the players to understand. They various technologies will be the main player wherever they are the better engine. I really do hate when the wind, solar, nuclear (all types), wave and FOSSIL FUEL people all claim that they are the ONLY WAY. That's just garbage. That's the lesson of history, starting with the Egyptians and every economy since. EVERY type of fuel/engine system has its place and its not because people want this or that its because they are the better engine. I seriously can't see fossil fuels being 100% abolished because there will simply be places where its better than everything else, but you can't tell that to a lot of people. Likewise for the fossil fuel people to think that wind & solar aren't going to be major players in certain markets is equally delusional. In some places they will need nuclear because its the best engine in that place. Hydrogen will be a major player, but because of its basic nature its not going to be the savior that many claim and that's being said by someone who's a huge believer in hydrogen. But then I also know the limits of hydrogen. And here's the grating thing - they all lie and all misdirect and it takes hours for engineers to explain it. When I mean they all lie. I mean ALL OF THEM. Wind, solar, nuclear, fossil fuel,..... ALL OF THEM. Even the hydrogen people lie and that's my thing.
    1
  111. 1
  112. 1
  113. 1
  114. 1