Youtube comments of Tara Raboomdiay (@tararaboomdiay7442).
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In my opinion, there's one factor that I suspect played a large part in the decision that only a few people have touched on: The relative achievements of the two technologies in the demonstrations.
Bell would announce what they were going to do next and then just go out and do it. In a straightforward manner and didn't parse language when they met or exceeded all the requirements and all of their promises. They did what they said they'd do when they said they would, and except towards the very end thy didn't take snipes at the other guys.
The Defaint (and the S-97, for that matter) were late, would announce an upcoming goal and when it would be demonstrated and then when it wasn't achieved they'd just be silent about it. For example, the Army's schedule for JMR-TD was first flight in 2017, a year's flight demonstrations where the technologies would demonstrate their promised capabilities as they related to Army criteria in 2018, after which Army would spend 2019 evaluating the test data before deciding in 202 which technology to take further into development. Valor flew as scheduled in 2019. They couldn't get Defiant into the air until 2019, and then in a relatively short time they had to ground it for more work before resuming demonstrations. Valor flew its first Army pilot two months after first flight. Defiant took nearly 2 1/2 years. Defiant flew far fewer hours than Valor.
Sikorsky kept saying it was OK because they were providing lots of data from simulations. The thing is, until you actually go out and do the thing for real, there's no way to validate whether your simulations are accurate. For example, Bell could have said the V-280 could do Mach 2 because they did it in simulations. Valor would show high agility in the hover, Sikorsky would brag about their low altitude banks , but leave out the fact that they were moving forward at a good clip, which makes high bank angles easier. They'd talk about their ability to rapidly accelerate after takeoff in a level attitude thanks to the prop, but the videos would show it heading out nose down just like a regular helo. Or, they would announce a new sustained speed achieved, but leave out that it was achieved in a shallow dive. And so on and so forth.
Now my point in this case is not to address the relative performance advantages/disadvantages of the promised capabilities of the two technologies. Defiant, for example, if a production aircraft meets the promises, will HOGE hot and high much better than Bell's promises for Valor (although it will meet the Army's requirement). Valor is faster. What I'm getting at is that if in addition to relative promised performance, they're trying to decide which technology generates more confidence that it'll deliver on its claims, from the demonstrations Valor wins that hands down. Some might say that's because there's less experience with X2 but so what? That's not the taxpayers problem, and it further buttresses the Army's choice.
Army is not going to come right out and say that, they're going to wait for the protest to be heard and then use what happened in the demonstrations as further justification for their choice.
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@dct124 If I recall, int hose articles Sikorsky talked about what happens if the pusher got shot off, unlike a conventional helicopter, it can still function. Now if you're hit hard enough to blow a major portion of the tail off, pretty much anything is going down.
Carrying an external load will slow anyone down, including Defiant. Yes, although Valor can lift an external load operatic in rotorborne configuration (mighty handy for takeoff and landing), it will probably operate in intermediate configuration if they want max speed while carrying a load faster. BTW, the V-22 hold's the world's record for speed when carrying an external load. Frankly, though moving a decent external load at speeds above 100 knots is not that operationally useful because of the loads placed o the cargo and effects the hanging cargo place onthe carrier.
Well, another reason was lower risk. Valor just got out there and did whatever was asked of it whenever it was asked of it while Defiant had a troublesome t demonstration record, and kept missing achieving datapoints on their announced schedules.. Here's just one example: the original JMR-TD for FLRAA called for first flight in 2017, a year of flight test/demonstrator in 2018, a year of data reduction and analysis in 2019, with selection of who would proceed to the next phase, viruatl and real world prototypes [remember, these were demonstrators.not prototypes) in late 2019/early 2020. 2020. Valor flew in 2017, did the demonstrations on time and the flew beyond what was required. Defiant not only didn't fly in 2017, they couldn't even get it into the air until March of 2019. And then it had to be grounded for problems a few flights after that. Its demonstration program was troubled and caused the whole program to slip.
So it's not too surprising that they'd lean towards for Valor even on just perception of lower risk, even discouraging the performance differences
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The OH-6 was indeed better. IIRC, on the initial award it looked Hughes bid below cost in order to get in for follow-on buys. Then, when the initial buy was completed Hughes price for follow-ons was dramatically higher. This embarrassed the customer, and if there's one thing you Never do is embarrass the gov't; it's memory is long. Even though it would result in pries higher than what Hughes was asking then no matter who won, a new competition was ordered. Bell had redesigned their buttt-ugly YOH-4 into the Model 206A JetRanger, one of the most beautiful helicopters ever built. They bid a military derivative of what was now essentially a civil design,, Faichild-Hiller declined to rebid their OH-5, which had come in second the previous time around and concentrated on their civil derivative the FH-1100. Bell's design was selected quite posibly because teh gov't wasn't mad at them.
The Cheyenne would have more capable than the Cobra, but it kept having development problems and its schedule was continually slipping. With Vietnam going hot and heavy Army just couldn't wait until the uncertain date when it could be fielded. . Air Force lobbying against it didn't help either. So a new competition was held for an interim gunship that could be fielded quickly until Cheyenne could eventually show up, and Bell's model 209 was the clear winner. If Cheyenne had met its schedule there would have been no Cobra, and if it hadn't been canceled there wouldn't have been so many Cobras
The reason they didn't give out ll the details of the decision is that they were preparing for the inevitable protest. .
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@irvhh143 Hmm, twice the speed, far greater range, faster accel/decel, larger payload, much greater ability to HOGE in hot and high conditions, etc. Sounds like more than a "minor" increase in performance to me.
Actually, the Chinook is a surprisingly good autorotator, especially given its size. I should point out that every autorotation does not necessarily mean you end up with a soft, gentle landing. How much autorotation capability is one of the tradeoffs in design. For example, the UH-1 reportedly autorotated better than the UH-60, but no one says we should have stayed with the Huey. As to what's Valor's autorotational performance, all we know for sure at this point is that Bell says it has the capability. We'll have to wait for a prototype to see. The aircraft flown so far was just a technology demonstrator,. Come to think of it, what's Defiant's performance? AFAIK, Sikorsky has never even addressed the issue.
The statement that FLRAAi is the selling point for Valor is self-evident. FLRAA is the whole reason for Valor's existence. In fact, it's the whole reason for Defiant's existence as well.
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@irvhh143 As the Army has repeatedly made clear, neither the Valor nor the Defiant that have flown are prototypes. They are Technology Demonstrators, hence the name of their program Joint Multi-Role Technology Demonstrator. Their purpose was to demonstrate their respective advanced technologies and the Army would evaluate the results to decide which concept offers greater potential not only for meeting or exceeding the Army's requirements but also greater potential for achieving its promises. Army only has enough money to operationally develop one of them for the FLRAA (there are actually two "A"s in the program name) program. The next step involves actual prototype(s). Of course the seller is talking about expected performance. That's wast everyone talks about until you actually build the thing. Both bidders gave their expected performance estimates for production models. That's what was being demonstrated, how likely it was that their concepts could achieve their promises. On that basis, Valor clearly demonstrated more and inspired more confidence than Defiant. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the pivotal factor in the decision.
What is your basis that a production Valor cannot take off vertically at operational weight? Even Sikorsky has never claimed that! Regarding hover capability, I would estimate that it could hover for as long as required. Not as efficiently as a regular helicopter, but Bell has always acknowledged that. However, it should hover for as long as the Army has specified (otherwise it would have been rejected). For one thing, it is required to HOGE at mission weight at 6000'/95°, which strikes me as somewhat more than "limited" hover capability. Is the whole aircraft armored like an A-10? No. One good hit on a Chinook's driveshaft and down she goes. All aircraft are vulnerable to enough hits in the right place a the right time. That's just the cost of doing business. But I would opine an aircraft doing 250 kn is less likely to be hit than one traveling at 125. Your objection to FLRAA is an objection to the UH-60, UH-1, H-35,H-19, etc. [not to mention CH-47 and H-53], or any transport helo. What is your alternative? Have the troops walk or ride in trucks? Last time I checked, no helo in flight has been knocked out by an underground mine or IED.
One other thing about FLRAA. Personally, I am not sure that as things stands neither a production Valor or Defaint can meet their original range estimate. The reason is that Army told both contractors to base their production aircraft estimates on the Army delivering the advanced FATE engine. It's become apparent in the past year or so that Army will not be able to deliver that engine to meet the FLRAA schedule, so the contractors were told that for the production aircraft they should select a more current techcnology engine. If the engine(s) chosen turn b out to be heavier or burn more fuel than what Army promised for FATE, the designs are going to take a hit there and Army won't be able to hold them to their original estimates. For the record, the exact same thing happened to Osprey
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@bistromathics6 Although advancing blades on both sides work to mitigate the problem of retreating blade stall, but they don't help with what happens if the blade tips go supersonic. The clever trick X2 does is to slow rotor rotation speed as forward speed increases, thus postponing when the tips would go supersonic. This is why an X2 could cruise faster than a regular helicopter, but even Sikorsky acknowledges not as fast as a Tilt-Rotor, partly because tips going supersonic is to something that doesn't concerns a Tilt-Rotor because at high speed sthe rotors are perpendicular to the direction of flight.
Regarding VRS,, Tilt-Rotors are subject to this like any rotorcraft. Quite frankly, in V-22 testing insufficient work was initially done in testing the onset of this phenomena, how a Tilt-Rotor (and its software) would react, with tragic results. Once the proper test flying was done, it was found that a Tilt-Rotor is actually somewhat more resistant to VRS that conventional rotors (don't know about X2s, it's newer been tested). More importantly, it was found that it was easier to recover. No special maneuver had to be flown, the procedure is to blip the rotors forward changing their angle to the airflow and the plane flies out of VRS. Its criminal that it took to long to test this.
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@DeathlordSlavik Sorry,it was a semantics thing, I was trying to differentiate between Sikorsky's more advanced concept and regular coaxials , so technically I was wrong and should have said X2 was a very advanced subset of the overall concept of coaxials/stacked rotors. Look at Kamov's masts, distance between rotors, shape of blades, hub thickness of mast, etc. Those are not intended for high speeds. Kamov was designing craft that were compact and avoided tail rotor issues. Even the KA-50/52 stays well under 200 knots They've been doing coaxial designs since the early '50s. It's their signature concept, just like tandem rotor technology was Piasecki's. you can see the ultimate expression of Piasecki's concept in the CH-46 and-47, which were designed by Piasecki and were acquired when Boeing bought the corporation (which was called Vertol) in 1960.
The S-69 was a research aircraft designed to test and demonstrate Sikorsky's Advancing Blade Concept, which was not a conventional coaxial and was the precursor the the X2 technology. This also was the time of the XV-15 Tilt-Rotor demonstrator. Without going into too much detail, it was half the speed of the XV-15. They eventually hung two turbojets on it, which raised the weight to the point it could no longer HOGE, but even with those blasting away and the aircraft in a shallow dive, its top speed was still 69 knots slower than the XV-15.
Sikorsky is already where? Just look at how many of their self set schedules and goals they missed on both S-97 and SB>1. They are higher risk
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Assuming the rotors work the same as in the V-22, and videos indicate they do, there is a large "twist" to the blades and they will be operating at a high pitch angle. Unlike a regular prop plane, the roots will be nearly edge on and the tips will have a quite significant angle relative to the direction of flight. In other words it won't appear to a radar as a flat spinning disc, but more of a "faceted" type of surface, sort of like what was done on the F-117. I'm not saying it will be a stealth aircraft, like the F-117, just that the return isn't going to be the big thing people worry about at first glance. Bell has demonstrated nose down backwards flight, possibly not as much as Defiant is theoretically capable of (although Defaint will have the limit of how far "back" you can tilt the disc, whereas Valor does not have to worry about the blades coming too close to the fuselage). Frankly, enemies are going to be shooting at the fuselage because it's an easier target, so the question applies to both craft:. how vulnerable are the engines/transmission,/blades, etc.
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Why can't you fight fires or do disaster response? It meets the Army's requirement for sling load, and should be able to do it as well as Black Hawk (as an aside, V-22 holds world speed record for carrying external load). If you look at Army bases, most helos aren't stored in hangars all the time. V-280 is wider than Defiant (H-60, BTW, is wider than the H-1 it replaced), but so what? It's shorter. More importantly, even acknowledging the greater width, nothing is better than everyone at everything. The choice is, weighing up the pluses and minuses, what gives you the most overall?
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@Michael02703 Here's the thing. In one of my other posts I covered this in detail, so I'll be brief. V-22 can autorotate, but like other large helicopters it does it badly. This is due to a restriction imposed on the size of the rotors and the fact that the gov't supplied an engine that was heavier and burned more fuel than what they told Bell-Boeing to design for, which makes the craft heavier than planned. This is also what causes the downwash, because of the higher disc loading. Both V-22 and V-280 are Tilt-Rotors, but projecting one on the other just because they both use Tilt-Rotor technology would be the same as saying back in the day we shouldn't develop the F-16 because it is a single engined jet like the F-8 and the F-8 had an appalling safety record (it did, even ignoring combat losses). The XV-15 and AW609 have both demonstrated much better autorotation. AFAIK V-280 hasn't because it wasn't required for JMR-TD and it's the only one Bell had and you don't want to do anything too far out if you've only got one. If all you want to do is go normal helicopter speeds for normal helicopter ranges with normal ,helicopter performance, a Tilt-Rotor will lose every time. There are always tradeoffs. A Tilt-Rotor can do a helicopter's job, but not as efficiently, but a helicopter can't do a Tilt-Rotor's job. The question is, what do you need?
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In the case of the Crusader III vs Phantom II, the Crusader was somewhat faster and accelerated better. It also had greater range when both were flown without tanks. However, that Phantom was twin engined, which while not as big a factor in Navy's as has been thought, was still a factor given the Navy's previous experience with the reliability of jet engines. It had more room for a better radar and a larger antenna. Also it had a Radar Intercept Officer which meant lower workload and higher effectiveness than a single crewed fighter. It could carry more armament, both missiles and air to ground ordnance. Those last three factors were probably the deciding ones. No way to tell if the Crusader III would have had as appalling a safety record as its predecessor.
The Navy could only afford one so they picked the one they thought would give them the most bang for the buck.
The original VFAX designation was for a program that was canceled, and replaced with VFX, which resulted in the F-14. The acronym VFAX was reutilized for a later program that resulted in the F/A-18.
By the way, there is an urban legend that's been going around saying that after it wasn't selected, the existing Crusader IIIs would bounce Phantoms during the development process and consistently wax hem. This never happened. There are a number of reasons that confirm this, but the easiest one is that the Crusader IIIs and Phantom IIs were never in the same place at the same time for said mock combats to occur.
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@kathrynck The problem with the X family is that they've continually not met their promises. If you look at the comparative performance of the two craft in the recent technology demonstration, the V-280 did FAR better. it met or exceeded every one of its promises and what Army wanted demonstrated in this phase. Defiant continually missed its goals. It didn't even fly until 15 months after the date Army specified. V-280 flew an Army pilot two months after first flight. It took 2 1/2 years after its first flight for Defiant to do that. Valor flew over three times a many hours as Defiant. Defiant never reached its promised top speed [neither did S-97], Valor exceeded its [higher] promised speed by 25 knots, etc. As such X2's a much more risky technology.
A conventional helicopter will hover more efficiently that a Tilt-Rotor, but whether an X2 does is not yet known. Regarding the pusher propeller for speed, it's worthy of note that when Defiant or Raider demonstrated their takeoff acceleration they tilted down must like a conventional helo, because-there's a lot more thrust from the rotor. For most missions, 90% or move of the time you're in forward flight, and that's what Tilt-Rotor is pitching. No doubt they'll both hover 'till fuel exhaustion, but a Tilt-Rotor would burn more fuel doing it, whihc is why you don't see Tilt-rotor being pitched for crane duties. If you're going to be mostly hovering or moving at very low speeds, neither of these technologies is the way you want to go.
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@danielwhyatt3278 Army wanted first flight in 2017. Valor did that, Defiant was 15 months late, and then had to be grounded soon after that for more work. Army wanted demonstration of top sustained speed. Valor exceeded its promised sustained speed by 9% Defiant came close but never actually dashed to its promised top speed. Army pilots flew Valor 2 months after first flight. That didn't happen for 2 1/2 years with Defiant. When a goal was announced that Valor was to demonstrate it did it when promised. When that was done for Defiant, it missed them a number of times with no explanation. Valor demonstrated high maneuverability in the hover, Defiant demonstrated in forward flight, which is easier. Valor flew 214 hours, Defaint flew 63.9.. Bell showed how if a maritime variant was desired, they would fold up to fit in destroyer hangars. Sikorsky never did. Etc.
Valor just inspired more confidence it could achieve its production version goals.
X2 is a fascinating concept it's just that right now it seems it's not ready for prime time. Let's hope they do better for FARA, whose performance requirements, and more importantly size, seem better sited to its strengths. Note that Bell is Not proposing a Tilt-Rotor for a number of reasons.
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@gort8203 You are 100% right about the F-111A always being intended to be a strike aircraft (To USAF, if it's not a Bomber, then no matter what else it does, it's a Fighter). The only AF aircraft that was ever designated from the start as an "A- " was the A-10 as part of its campaign against the AH-56. Where I screwed up was not paying attention and looking at the early, early missions for the original TFX program, which would have been impractical to actually build.
Minor point: the version that was to fulfill the B-58 mission was the later FB-111.
Again, the F-111Bs that flew from the Coral Sea were operated at reduced weight and the purpose was not to do full carrier compatibility tests. IIRC, one of the requirements for an operational bird was that if an engine was lost on approach in landing configuration at operational landing weight the aircraft had to be able to climb at 500 fpm in case of waveoff. It was estimated that an operational F-111B would not be able to come close to that. Carrier suitability was one of, but by no means the only, reasons fort he Navy wanting out. Another one was that given limited deck space, they couldn't afford to have it plus another fighter to handle all the rest of the fighter mission.
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@davidplatenkamp Actually, DoD budget is one of the organizations that are part of the "discretionary" budget. What that means is that
DoD has only so much appropriated money to spend each year. If for whatever reason they look like they're going to spend more than that, they have to ask for supplemental funds for various parts, which they don't always get. If they don't get new money to cover the shortfall, then except for combat operations they have to start parking aircraft squadrons, tying ships up to the dock, sending civilian workers home, etc., until the new fiscal year. This has happened a number of times in the past few decades, and also happens if the DoD budget isn't passed by the start of the new fiscal year.
The larger part of the US budget is the "non-discretionary" portion. For that part of the budget, Congress puts in a certain number, but it's an illusion. If the programs are that are part of that side of the budget reach the point where they are going to spend more than that amount of money, they just keep right on spending because spending on those programs is "non-discretionary. You don't have the discretion to Not spend whatever they need. Again, this side is the larger part of the Federal Government's annual "budget".
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@verdebusterAP the 160th is much beloved, but they do not have a blank check. It's inconceivable that they'd be given the hundreds of millions, more likely billions, of $$ necessary to do all the EMD and testing to bring Defiant-X to operational status, set up entirely different logistics, maintenance, support, training and crewing necessary. Just to get a slower aircraft that can land lengthways in a street? And if you're only building six to 12, these hand built jewels are going to cost not just $7 million more apiece, they're each going to cost hundreds of millions of $ more. There was the famous semi-stealth version of the H-60 built that was used in the Bin Laden raid, but even though it was a modification of the H-60 design, reportedly it cost so much that the program was cut in half and less than a dozen were built.
That's the key. They'll do what they've done so well in the past: Use an existing aircraft or take an already developed design and modify some to suit their purpose.
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