Comments by "duncan smith" (@duncansmith7562) on "Why Lyman matters for Russia's odds in the Ukraine War | DW News" video.

"strategically important town of Lyman". not true, of no strategic importance whatsoever. "part of a counter offensive in the east"..not true. the Kharkov counter offensive was a month ago. This was an all-out assault to grab a deserted town, 6000 Ukrainians against 500 Russians. In the real counter offensive, in Kherson, Ukraine has failed. "dozens were killed by Russian shelling"...no evidence of that, though Ukraine has a record of attacking civilians abandoning bankrupt Ukraine to move to Russia.
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Lyman, so strategically important that Mateus blabs on for 2 minutes on its symbolic importance and then mentions its strategic importance with "it opens the way to Severodonetsk". it doesn't. you have Russian troops between Lyman and Severodonetsk, just as you did before Lyman fell.
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Merril R That is true. Many Russian propagandists got this one wrong. similarly with the "advances" in Bakhmut
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@donmountford797 absolute nonsense! You are just parroting the media you watch! Let's talk specifics. Please list all Russian occupied towns and cities that no longer have access to use of railways as a result of Lyman's capture. Go ahead.
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@donmountford797 looking at maps currently? you mean you lectured me on how strategic Lyman is as a railway hub for Russian supplies without looking at a map? You must work for Western media! Besides, you failed to answer the question. Now you have a rail map in front of you, list ALL the towns and cities in the Russian occupied zones that now have NO ACCESS to a rail line because of the fall of Lyman. I'll wait for your list, with my map in front of me.
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@donmountford797 all of that report sounds correct to me. so what's your point? Lyman is indeed a key railway hub in Ukraine. However, given that in the present circumstances it is the end station of the Russian occupied zone, it is of NO STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE! it's capture, as far as Russian supplies goes, means NOTHING! Once Donbass is reunited as one entity, Lyman will return to being a key railway hub. This isn't that difficult to grasp, I promise!
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@donmountford797 The Russians falsely claimed that when they captured Lyman back in May that it would open up the way to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. It didn't. Curiously, of course, back in May, Western media said nothing about how "significant" Lyman was/is. Only now! Both sides are bullshitting about Lyman's significance.
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@donmountford797 possibly. it would also mean that Russian supply lines are now in trouble, because a town BETWEEN Lyman and Lysychansk is taken. The window of opportunity for Ukraine to make further territorial gains is closing as October advances, so it makes sense they throw everything possible at the Donbass front now. It will be interesting how Russia responds once the 4 new territories are officially part of Russia
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@donmountford797 obviously am not sure what is going on exactly, but it looks like Russia is content to try to minimize territorial losses until the weather changes, but then what? seems bit too nonchalant or half-hearted and will be really unpopular in Russia this slow retreat. Got a feeling there is serious dissent about what to do in the Russian military leadership. all seems a bit rudderless at the moment.
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"Lyman sits astride the supply lines of the Russians"...translation, Russian supply lines coming from both Belgorod and Rostov are totally unaffected.
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@Jbuwimana as I just explained, they are not. no supplies originated in Lyman and Lyman would have been the end of the line. it changes nothing, and that's why the commentators can't detail what its strategic importance is.
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Merril R the facts are that Russia is winning the war. when you look at Putin's 5 aims at the start of the intervention, he is very close to achieving all 5. Ukraine is nowhere near getting out of this mess without horrendous losses on all fronts, economically, politically, militarily and most important of all, morally.
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Merril R strategic importance is sanctioning Russian energy exports so that Russia ends up exporting less but gaining hundreds of billions in extra revenue! The West has proved to be strategically inept and globally, the strategic importance of Russia trading so profitably around the world has consigned the West to a horrific defeat. This winter will be absolutely fascinating to watch
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Merril R All insurance for international shipping is NOT owned by the West, and even if it were, your assumption that non-Western countries can't arrange shipping insurance is false. There are so many loopholes, it is a joke. A UAE ship can get insurance to ship UAE oil, switch the oil with Russian oil in international waters, and the delivery goes ahead. This is happening as we speak off the coast of Greece. Greek ships bring in Russian oil to Europe no problem at all. It is why the brilliant idea of sanctioning shipping of Russian goods has not happened yet and will not happen. it won't work. it is another example of strategic unimportance and why the Russian economy is doing so much better than the West's economies. Remember when Biden called the Ruble the "rubble"? Ruble is now the world's best performing currency. Now THAT is of strategic importance!
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Merril R Western sanctions on Russian energy that create energy shortages, sky high prices and imminent rationing in the West (but not in Russia) is strategically important! The West has some awesome strategists at work! Makes you think they must be working for Russia!
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Merril R all my research is sound (unlike your reading comprehension skills and logic skills). Let's just analyze these 2 statements. 1) Russia could always not use insurance. 2) international shipping needed to transport Russian oil and goods need to be insured. Don't see any contradiction there? your confusion, delusion and contradictions highlight why the West has got itself in such a pickle. You think you know something about rules, but the realities of life contradict your assumptions. you make yourself sound foolish. Googled "ship insurance companies not in the West" have you?
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@asmo1313 Kupiansk did nothing to affect Russian supply lines. take a look at something called a "map".
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