Comments by "DynamicWorlds" (@dynamicworlds1) on "Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell"
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Iran and North Korea (whatever we may think of their domestic policies) very obviously see nukes as a means to deter invasion (mostly US invasion, and both have very good reasons, modern and historic, to fear that). I'm not aware of China making threats to use nukes offensively, either.
The India/Pakistan conflict is a very serious risk, however, as is the increasing escalation between the US, Russia, and China. Even if it isn't at the point of any explicit nuclear threats (at least by any half-way sane actors in said countries), things can spiral out of hand quickly were conventional warfare to start, and we have already been in violation of some of the treaties that helped end the Cold War for well over a decade, which isn't promicing.
I'm not encouraged by the selling of Saudi Arabia even allegedly peaceful nuclear technology, either, considering they keep giving our weapons to Al-Quaida.
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My guestimate numbers for the drake equation put things at about 0.4 civilizations/galaxy with that number being even lower in the early universe.
The notion that we can get intelligent live on a planet that isn't almost exactly like earth is making a lot of assumptions considering how specific things had to be for evolution had to select for it on earth once in all the time we've had life here.
You can pretty much rule out any planet significantly larger or smaller, without a massive iron core (which basically rules out the early universe, when amounts available were low), with too thick or thin an atmosphere, further in toward the galactic center (too many orbit disruptions and gama ray bursts), around red dwarfs (they're too variable), around supergiants (they're likely too radioactive and short lived), too much/little water, one too big mass extinction event knocking life back a stage, etc
There's also the fact that the notion that intelligent life expanding through the galaxy isn't a sure thing. We're already seeing countries where birth rates are declining below replacement rates, so it's not at all strange to think that populations for advanced species tend to stabilize.
It's also likely that, due to energy requirements, interstellar travel isn't a good way to deal with overpopulation, so most species that are capable of it only choose to leave their star system when it becomes uninhabitable and focus on population control instead.
Also, set up a series of smaller filters and you get a similar effect without and "great wall".
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