Comments by "gary K" (@garyK.45ACP) on "Liberal Hivemind"
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Well, no one will talk about it until the 2Q GDP report comes out. I believe this person is right, we are in a recession, but it won't be "official" until the reports are released July 28. There will be some preliminary "reads" before then.
Here are the basic facts. Inflation reduces a person's buying ability, it reduces a person's "discretionary spending" but, even more than that, supply chain shortages damage sales. Even if you have money to spend, you can't buy the things you want because they are not in stock. It is impossible to grow the economy and increase GDP (the total of all goods and services) when you don't have basic materials.
There are months long backorders of building materials, appliances, automobiles. If you don't have the stuff to sell or provide for construction it is impossible to grow the economy.
Note to Biden: The USA gets almost -0- food products from Ukraine. We EXPORT the same agricultural products Ukraine does. The issues with Ukraine food products are affecting Africa and Europe, not the USA.
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Democrats need to realize that DEMOCRATS never did anything to codify Roe v. Wade for FIFTY YEARS (50)!!!!!!! And NOW, after the decision blocks them, they say they will. 🤣
Most recently, in 2009-2011, Democrats had super-majority in the House, a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and Obama in the White House. They did NOTHING for immigration, climate change, abortion "rights", same-sex marriage or any of their key issues. NOTHING.
They had 60 seats in the Senate, plus several RINOs
Name the issue...they have had the same issues for decades...and they did nothing for any of these issues when they had the chance.
They don't WANT "solutions", they WANT issues to fund raise and use for elections.
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Meh...big nothing burger. Democrats will still control the Senate. Here's the math:
If Sinema declares she will not caucus with either party, the count is 50-49-1
If Sinema declares she will caucus with the Dems (not likely) the count is 51-49
If Sinema declares she will caucus with Republicans, the count s 50-50 and Kamala breaks the tie.
Sinema will continue to vote exactly as she has.
She did this to avoid being primaried in 2024 when she runs for reelection. Dems were going to primary her, pull her funding and make sure she lost the primary. Because she didn't vote to end the filibuster. Now they can't. NOW, if Dems run a candidate against her in the General election, they will split the Dem vote and get the Republican elected. AZ does not have runoffs. A Republican could win with 35% of the vote if Sinema and the Dem split what's left.
Shrewd move, Kyrsten!
They would do the same to Manchin, if they could, but there is NO WAY any Dem primary challenger would defeat Manchin.
Dems will not run a candidate against a popular Independent. Just ask Bernie Sanders or Angus King. Just ask Bill Clinton what happens when you do, he got elected both times because an independent, Ross Perot, split the Republican vote both times.
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Juneteenth, once a "holiday" only in Texas, has nothing to do with the "Emancipation Proclamation" but when the news of the end of the Civil War in April, 1865 and the passage of the 13th Amendment in January, 1865 reached Texas.
The "Emancipation Proclamation" (1863) did not "free" ANY slaves. It applied ONLY to "States in open rebellion" to the US Government. Those states had declared themselves a separate country. Executive Orders of the President of the United States didn't apply to them. The states of Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, and Delaware were slave states that did not secede from the union. Slaves in those states were not "freed" by the Emancipation Proclamation, either. Because they were not in "open rebellion".
The US had just lost thousands of soldiers at Vicksburg and Gettysburg, there had been the worst riots in US history (even to this day) in New York over the policy of allowing wealthy people to pay a fee to exempt their sons from military service, and Lincoln desperately needed SOMETHING to say they were "fighting for". It was a political stunt with no legal effect.
Juneteenth is a fabricated holiday intended to get votes.
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The unemployment rate is low because the workforce participation is low. Most people burned through all their (extended and enhanced) unemployment benefits in 2020/2021, when 80+% of unemployed people made more money being unemployed, and have to work at least 5 quarters to be eligible for more. You can't collect unemployment benefits on unemployment benefits. And you aren't working or collecting unemployment benefits...you don't count in the "unemployment rate"
Formula examples:
100 people in the workforce, 94 have a job, 6 are collecting unemployment benefits. Unemployment rate: 6% Workforce participation: 100%
100 people in the workforce, 90 have a job, 4 are collecting unemployment, 6 have exhausted their unemployment benefits but have no job.
Unemployment rate: 4% Workforce participation rate: 94%
LESS people working but a LOWER "unemployment rate"
Obama pulled the same trick in 2010. Unemployment benefits had been extended for 99 months during the "Bush recession", Obama even threatened to shut down the government if they weren't extended in 2009. Then a couple months before the mid-term, when the Dems were as unpopular as they are now, he allowed the benefits to expire and just before the mid-term election the unemployment rate DROPPED. Voila!!!!!! Easy peasy!
The Dems still lost a record number of seats in the House and lost their filibuster proof 60 seat majority in the Senate in the 2010 election.
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Watch carefully. The bill, with amendments, now heads to the House. Despite all the speechifying and posturing in the Senate...I fully expect the House to strip out these two amendments (cutting off funds to cities who defund police and the CRT ban) in debate. They will not be in the House passed version of the bill. It will then go to conference committee (behind closed doors) where you should not expect any posturing (or hugging) by Senator Booker or Manchin. The complete bill, without these amendments, will be presented for a vote in the Senate and pass...without these amendments. You doubt me? Don't.
Manchin and Booker and the others got their day in the sun and Liberal Hivemind helped.
Why do they do this? Simple. Senators are elected "at large". The whole state gets to vote for them. There are no Gerrymandered Senate "districts". No "safe" districts in a Senate race. Booker and Manchin have to publicly appeal to every voter. They just did. They did so, knowing their compatriots (comrades?) in the House will "fix it" for them. Booker will have something to appeal to the people of NJ who don't want to defund the police, but the amendment won't survive, so the people who want to defund the police, still can. The Senators get re-elected (the US Congress has a lower turnover rate than the "Supreme Soviet" had during the USSR)
This happens all the time at state and federal levels.
Good example...Louisiana Constitutional Carry Bill. The Democrat Governor announced early in the process, he would veto any bill passed by the legislature. This gives Democrats from strong pro-2A districts the "green light" to vote for the bill and claim to have supported it..."See, I voted for that there bill. Yesiree Bob!" The Governor then vetoed the Bill and the Legislature fails to convene an override session. Voila!!!!!!!!! There is no Constitutional Carry, but the Legislators will all tell their voters they voted for it in their re-election campaign.
Nothing is done until it is done...and this mess ain't even close to being done!
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