Comments by "Awesome Avenger" (@awesomeavenger2810) on "North Korea: What would a war look like? BBC News" video.

  1. That is why it is important to remind the North Korean elites (including Kim) that they personally will be front line targets.
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  2. I would disagree. The North Korean regime invests a lot of effort into appearing to be irrational and therefore unpredictable. Because no one wants to have to deal with such a country. But they are anything but. They have whole departments working long term on foreign policy, in ways that no western democracy ever could. The regime's stated aim is to bring about a united Korea under North Korean leadership. Whether the majority of the elite believe this is actually possible is unlikely. But the first step towards that goal is to drive the US out of South Korea. And to undermine South Korean sovereignty in regards to its defence. Which is why they complain so bitterly whenever the South carry out military manoeuvres (it stands to reason that North Korea sees its own war games as not up for discussion). What North Korea wants is the US out. And a compliant and defenceless South too cowed into submission even to dare mobilise its forces on its own territory. The continued threats and attacks against the south (North Korea has shelled the South and sunk its warships in the past) are all part of the effort to wear down its opponents. But if you look at what they are doing, they have gone no further than every other time they have threatened nuclear obliteration. And they have done many times before. The fact that so many people seem able to forget what happened only a few years back is pretty incredible. Do they all have goldfish memories? If the North Korean regime fails in these aims, then at least they can expect to blackmail concessions in the form of more aid from China, the US, and the South. But they have no interest in a war they know they have no hope of winning. The North Korean elite are not insane. Their only problem is how to make their latest threat of nuclear obliteration sound more plausible than every other such threat that preceded it. The answer to the problem, in my opinion, is China. China sees North Korea as a vital buffer state between it and the western friendly democratic South. But if North Korea were to become a nuclear state, then how long before the South follows? And what about Japan? A nuclear armed South Korea and Japan would be a catastrophe for China. As, just as the US (a superpower) fears a nuclear armed North Korea, China (also a superpower) fears the same about Japan and the South. So how far are the Chinese willing to go to keep their buffer state? And does it matter to China who leads it? I would say the Kim regime is only useful to them up until he becomes a liability. And I think Kim is aware of this. Not so long ago he executed his uncle and mentor for perhaps being too close to the Chinese? So it's very likely he fears regime change coming from China, far more than he does from the US.
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  3. Absolutely China would have no problems with devastating North Korea if it achieved their aims. After all, they support the Kim regime, and short of full scale war and the devastation that would follow, you can't get much worse than that in relation to North Korea. However, if there were conflict in Korea, the North would lose. Unless, of course, China stepped in again, as they did during the Korean war. Which would be counterproductive to playing North Korea off against the US. If that is China's aim. In other words, they would lose their buffer state. And have the US right on their borders. And the only way for them to stop that from happening would be for China to go to war. As for China's economy surpassing the US, that is wildly overhyped. China has huge problems ahead of it. Their economic reforms have lifted many of their people out of poverty, but they have a rapidly aging population and they are heading for a massive pension crises. That's not to say China isn't a threat. But there has been a cost to China in building artificial islands. And that is in its relations with its near neighbours. With even the Vietnamese moving closer to the US as a result. And like I said, if North Korea armed itself with the bomb, then could China be sure the South and Japan wouldn't soon follow? What good would their artificial Islands be then?
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  4. China would only gain the whole of Korea if they went to war with the US. If that is their aim, then what is the point of playing North Korea off against the US? They might just as well start a war in the South China Sea. You also ignore the fact that the South Koreans have agency of their own. They have no desire to live under Chinese occupation. The North Korean threat is more real to them than it is for anyone who lives in the west. The idea that they would suddenly turn on their US allies and welcome the Chinese is unrealistic. And certainly no sound basis for Chinese long term planning in the region.
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