Comments by "Grak70" (@Grak70) on "Russia: a Terrorist State. The Kremlin’s Grand Strategy Failure." video.

Belarus’ military is pathetically underarmed and unsuitable for expeditionary adventures, even to its nearest neighbor. Mobilizing what they do have would leave them completely defenseless against any counter attack.
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Russian gas consumption has fallen from 40% of EU gas imports to 15% in less than a year. Germany built its first LNG terminal in record time and intra-EU pipelines are expanding at a frenetic pace. If you think the EU isn’t going to be Russian gas free or nearly so in the next five years, you haven’t kept up. This winter will be hard and stockpiling for next year will be even harder, but that’s just more motivation.
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Not “again” but certainly this time. Poland learned its lesson about its neighbors long ago and it fills me with joy to see them buying every bit of kit they can get the Americans and South Koreans to build.
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@krissteel4074 the difference being Russia has nukes. Otherwise yes, Putin is doing a great job of proving Russia’s total incompetence in conventional warfare.
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I promise you they will. The only way America will not fulfill its NATO obligations is if we elect another insane isolationist wanna-be autocrat. Real politicians know the value of a United West, as we have just seen in Ukraine. Shitcanning our obligations to Europe is the best way to see renewed Chinese and Russian vigor and aggression. Russia practically banked on a fractured West to justify why their Ukraine invasion would succeed: we didn’t really care when they took Crimea. We didn’t really care when they invaded Georgia. This time they were wrong and they’re getting absolutely fucked for it.
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@Red0543 in all probability this is some inbred flyover American who has a hate boner for an entire continent he’s never visited, has no passport, and barely speaks his first language. You could be forgiven for confusing the bottom 20% of Americans for Russian sycophants though… they shot America’s Cold War legacy in the back as soon as it was more fun to cheer for autocrats.
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@philiptilden2318 I am responding to your claim that the EU continues to buy Russian gas. Yes, they do, but irrespective of the EU designation, they would have to. Even if the EU Parliament had the power to shut off Russian gas tomorrow, they wouldn’t do it. Not because they lack the authority in my scenario, but because doing so would cause economic collapse. It’s not an issue of the federal authority of the EU; it’s just the reality of the energy infrastructure. And that is rapidly changing. The larger Euro economies will drag the smaller ones along as, long term, the latter cannot afford bespoke infrastructure for maintaining Russian gas supplies unless they border Russia itself. That leaves Poland and the Baltic states as the only EU players that don’t need member state assent to transit Russian gas. You couldn’t pick a more fervent anti-Russian crowd. The point I’m making is that a United EU opinion of Russia and what to do about its energy policy informs the policies of the large member states. And in hydrocarbon energy in particular this sort of unity is decisive. Because it doesn’t give for example, Spain, a way to circumvent other EU member state decisions to disengage. If policy across Europe was more fractured, this chilling effect would be far less pronounced. The EU parliament’s decision here is a strong exercise of soft power: it doesn’t need to have the power to sanction every single member state to affect those member states’ energy policy if the big guns agree. That’s a feature of quasi-federalism, not a bug.
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@electricspeedkiller8950 "Would it hurt to continue business with Russia and not see the biggest deindustrialisation since WW2?" Deindustrialization would hurt. Which is why the EU member states and the EU generally are not disengaging in a discontinuous manner. The EU has been continuously threatened with gas cuts for its policy of supporting Ukraine and not bending over to get fucked by Putin anyway. What exactly is your point here? The EU should just let Russia curb stomp Ukraine because it’s economically expedient? I think bigger brains than yours have decided that’s a long term recipe for even further increased tensions and risk of war with EU and NATO members. Expensive LNG is a lesser cost to the economy than an invasion of Poland or Finland, or even the threat of such, to say nothing of Ukraine’s welfare. "LOL. It's all going to the States, brother." Are you referring to the EU buying American LNG to make up for Russian gas? If so, again, I don't understand your point. The EU and the US are strategic allies, so this is a positive thing as a solution to turn away from Russia. But if the EU learned anything from the Trump administration, it's that it should diversify its interests in critical sectors to alliances and economic partnerships beyond the US. American power is too fickle and polarized to rely on right now. That's another reason EU defense spending is increasing (in addition to Russian hostility on its doorstep). Politically, America is both too susceptible to hardline isolationism (from both parties) and too susceptible to retributive, grievance-based, strong-man politics. I expect we will see more EU engagement for gas with the Middle East and African states once the supply crisis and infrastructure migration are well underway.
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@electricspeedkiller8950 I’m bewildered by your belief that a bear on your doorstep is someone else’s problem and that you’re suddenly going to pull an entire continent’s worth of oil and gas out of your collective ass without getting it from someone else. North Sea reserves are neither sufficiently large nor sufficiently developed to supply Europe. Period. The kind of utilitarian isolationism you’re so excited for is not possible.
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@adriannv2562 “look at what you did America…you went and made me kill 100,000 Ukrainians. Tsk tsk…” Putin’s bootlickers will truly say anything…
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