Comments by "" (@thomasherrin6798) on "A China expert explains when economic crisis will bring down the Chinese regime" video.

  1. Peter Zeihan's collapse is a 10 year slow puncture to the new normal, China's economy will drop to a more sustainable level, wherever that level is, but not the current debt fueled one. War will make it collapse!?!
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  2. Wall Street expectations are maybe a bit more narrow than can be imagined for China. Wall Street focuses on the parts of China that are currently and in the future operating successfully, like the export market (It expects it to be reduced over time but at present should show a return). It is less likely to invest in property, which was previously supported by Chinese Citizens, where there are unlikely to be returns due to the systemic problems now and in the near future. It is the real estate problem which has caused the local government finances to deteriorate as the property sector needs to be reduced by 50%, and the C.C.P. can't see a way to make up for that reduction in its finances (Which disproportionately affects local government financing) at present (About 2 to 3 trillion dollars worth each year). The C.C.P. could instead of putting money into non productive infrastructure could support the local governments but this will significantly reduce GDP which is an ideology driven target, it wouldn't sort out the problem but it would limit the pain. The bus drivers pay, COVID and run on some banks are temporary problems and in itself are of no note because it can be leveled at local government mismanagement. There is no easy way out for the C.C.P. as it requires the C.C.P. to reform itself top down and that is hardly likely to happen, but there is at present, no alternative apart from a different internal fraction taking control of the C.C.P.!?!
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  3. The bit that's missing is the environment, otherwise growth and innovation are stymied!?!
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