Comments by "" (@thomasherrin6798) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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@sweden_is_xxxx The Russian Rouble is worth one cent of a USD and falling, it would cost Europe far more to let Russia achieve its ambitions, comrade, the cost was high initially due to Mainland Europe's dependency on Russian energy but the "whole" of Europe is transitioning it energy supply and it will be majorly renewable energy independent by the 2030's, and totally energy independent by 2040's, the first continent to do so, and the energy can be permanently generated in our own backyard, this "minor" recession will be long forgotten, Russia's energy revenues will never recover and are at 50% of their pre war levels, and will likely get worse, comrade, there is no good outlook for Russia and their illegal and barbaric invasion only pain!?!
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Chinas economic boom stopped in 2008 when non-productive debt took over, they have been amassing a debt burden since then, COVID has worsened the situation and still is, its debt burden is $57,000,000,000,000 approx. and counting. World Trade will continue with or without the U.S. as it has always done since ancient times, and if it does withdraw it economy will depreciate further, it will no longer be the reserve currency and it will not maintain its security budget, you don't need a big military to guard your back yard, especially when most of your citizens have six guns!?!
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@evancoles He has an inkling that Russia may still win, and on the battlefield that does not seem to be the case, he says that we have to wait until Spring to find out if Russia is getting its act together, but to me for the last 4 to 5 months they have disintegrated at an alarming rate. Ukraine appears to attack quickly, take large swathes of land, pause and regroup, then repeat, the mud has held them up a little bit longer but I will be surprised if there is not a further surge before Xmas, something is moving on the battlefront with probing etc., but the target has not identified itself as yet, looks like the North to me, but could be the South, but most probably not the middle, if they capture the 2022 invaded land back it all up to the Himars then to reek destruction on the logistics and army as all targets are within reach, the war will be over by Autumn of 2023 in Ukraine!?!
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@17arando Yes Europe's troubled past and present, in Wales with a population of 3.5 million presently it has the most castles per square mile than any other in the World, they were used in the middle ages to quell the locals which failed overall, the country is 170 miles by 60 miles, since the act of union in 1707 it has been involved in 120 wars in 170 countries as part of the UK, and the UK has never lost a war, we are currently having time off for good behaviour, the UK was last invaded in 1066, European countries have the top 4 out of the top 5 in most wars fought, India is the fifth, fortunately or unfortunately it's in our DNA!?!
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He did, the dollar was not going to fade anytime soon he said, as 65% of the World trade is done by the Wider West, BRICS countries are not fairing well, Brazil and Argentina are mooting a common currency but Argentina is starting from a low point so it is unlikely to get off the ground and will take a decade if it does, Russia is in an expensive war and it's economy is deflating at a rate of knots, India is showing promise but has burecratic hindrance to foreign investors and companies, China has 57 Trillion USD in debt to date so not a good recommendation as they will be the defacto backstop to the "new" currency, South Africa is mired in corruption and mismanagement. They could start a new currency, or use the yuan, but it's foundations are not structurally sound for doing so!?!
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The immediate problem is COVID, a solution exists, it has already been implemented in the West. It has not been implemented in China because they have chosen the lockdown route which Initially worked, but however, as the virus has become more transmissible it is not working now, due in part, to relaxing of lockdowns. The C.C.P. is not going to stop lockdowns unless a viable vaccine is in place as the problem goes up by a factor of 10, which they found out in Hong Kong. The C.C.P. has not indicated that it is ready to carry out vaccinations from the West on the elderly and vulnerable (At least two doses, maybe three, which will be a six to 12 month programme where lockdowns must remain in place). The third option is to continue with the lockdowns and deter protesters in their usual C.C.P. fashion by intimidation, beatings, imprisonment etc. which at present is still the preferred route. It has very little to do with the West, and the West will not change China's direction of travel, so a lot more pain for the citizens for at least three years or more, with the C.C.P. still in charge, things will have to get a lot worse for any major changes to be made!?!
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I think Peter is only looking at most at 50 years into the future, and it is only a prediction, events has a way of changing things in unexpected ways, I think he's referring to a time in the Middle East when carbon will not be the main energy source of the World, which may be because known reserves are due to run out in 50 years at the present rate (Or another 50 odd or so years if more reserves are found but most probably at greater cost), or if renewables are likely to take hold of the energy sector, a great movement forward which could become a game changer is if they sorted out the energy storage for low cost conundrum, then renewables can be accelerated at a fast pace, obviously any two of the above scenarios would be a nightmare for the Middle East, without oil they are unsustainable in their present form, how big the collapse is will be governed by the rate of progress in renewables, which at present, due to Russia and OPEC's weapoinising of energy, is changing at a very rapid pace in the majority of the European Continent, it will be majorly renewable energy independent by 2035 and energy independent by 2040-2045, I'm not counting on Nuclear Fusion at this time as that is into the next century before it can be widely deployed at the earliest!?!
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The population of Ukraine prior to the war was around 43 million, they quickly restricted men from travelling abroad who could be mobilised, the number which fled is more than offset by the Russians who fled mobilisation and the war, a lot of women and children (8 million) emigrated to neighbouring countries, reducing the dependency burden for Ukraine, they are "thankfully" being fed and watered by others, the U.K. population was around the same for the start of World War 2 and some 3.5 million men and women were placed into the army, while the factories and food production still continued to work despite extremely heavy bombing, Ukraine's industrial needs are taken care of by the West and it's air defence's by Spring/ Summer should mean that it's a no fly zone for aircraft and it should achieve 80 to 90% success on missile attacks. Yes it's tough on Ukraine, but it is achievable, and to finally release the shackles of Russia's murderous ambitions after hundreds of years is surely worth the sacrifice, no more Holodomors!?!
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Energy prices are rising due to Russia turning off the energy supplies to Europe because we imposed sanctions on them for the war in Ukraine, a once in a Hundred year's or so event, coming after another once in a Hundred year's event I.E. COVID. Most European governments are implementing schemes for reducing part of the energy bills to all, and additional assistance to the poorest of society. It is most unfortunate that we got ourselves here in the first place, but the biggest portion of the blame by far belongs to Russia, Germany and Italy to a lesser extent must also put their hands up. In all of this, however, we must not forget that we, or our children including babies are not being targeted by missiles from a terrorist state, it is Ukraine that is paying the highest price for Russia's illegal and barbaric war, it is Ukraine that we must give our full support - The just stop oil activists should be sent to China, the biggest polluters!?!
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I wondered that myself, apparently the US Army is dredging the Mississippi so it must be a large undertaking and it is a forever task, I assume the "Yellow" which is smaller but also heavily polluted presents more of a problem, location might also play a large factor, in the late 1800's 930,000 Chinese lost their lives by drowning due to floods, also due to poorly constructed dyke failure, you would have thought that would exercise the CCP's mind, but if it don't generate GDP it's not important, what's a million citizens they have 1,399,000,000 more!?!
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Is America still apprehensive of the British, we are a little more civilised now, Mostly. We still exist as a nation, we don't really need American support as we just plough our own furrow these days except when anyone steps on our sovereignty. Two Worlds Wars, both not started by us by the way, they were not even "our" wars, but they did weaken the people's resolve for fighting. That's most probably why we gave up India and Egypt and the rest, it wasn't really worth it. Americans glee at Britain's "demise" (We are still doing quite well, we are only a little island) is a bit strange as we don't really dislike America (Only parts of it), and I'm pretty sure that Adolf Hitler was a bigger menace to the U.S. than our half hearted attempt to keep the U.S. under British Rule, if the Germans had won. Britain can still organise things so be careful what you wish for!?!
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@shostako1284 You are delusional, the West is doing fine, it will be fine in the future, since the Communists took over in Russia (Only in 1917) it has gone bust once, it's going the same way again because it's on the same plan, China is on the same road and they only formed in 1949, it will just hit a bigger bump. The US has been going for 247 years democratically and Europe a lot, lot, lot longer, democracy is not perfect, but it's better than the alternatives!?!
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@yopyop3241 We will be the biggest European economy by 2030, Germany the E.U. banker is running out of cash and labour by then, so no deal, NFTA at any price also no deal, Russia and North Korea can survive on their own , I'm pretty sure we can, we produce 85% of our own food at present, will be majorly Renewable by 2030 on energy and still have services and industry to export wherever. If it was left up to Germany to bully the Baltics and Nordics in Europe (Following their Russian energy debacle), Ukraine might have already been in Russia's hands, U.K. galvanised European support, and a big shout out to U S. and the Wider West!?!
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It does matter they only have so much gold, not an unlimited supply, and if the Rouble falls when they sell energy to China, India and Egypt they will get less for it. For example the gold they hold is worth 156 billion but the money they lost on the currency this year is 50% so far, total energy exports for Russia is 150 billion for 2023 to date approx. (A big reduction on previous years for energy export) so the currency loss is 76,500,000 USD half of the gold reserve so far, they still have all their bills to pay, however like Peter says services and infrastructure in Russia will be taking a dive (Except for maybe Moscow and St. Petersburg!) but Putin still has to fund a war, and pensions and the home security to stop uprisings and the like, the figures never lie and Russia is bleeding red, and although the citizens so say support the war they will not remain silent if it starts looking bad!?!
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Germany and Nuclear, it's "dangerous" say the politicians, well if you are going to run it like a "Soviet State Model" maybe, Chernobyl claimed 3,500 lives total, the Japanese Nuclear incident (I'm not going to attempt to spell the plant name!) following a tsunami claimed around 2,100 deaths, all are regrettable, but lessons have been learned for new nuclear builds, but lignite related deaths in Germany are 3,500 to 4,000 "per year", and nothing is done about that, but I suppose it's in Germany's back yard, so it's o.k. (All info. from Wikipedia)!?!
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If China and Russia are out of the equation due to demographics and the state of their economies, then global trade will be easier to implement amongst the remaining Wider West as their Navies will be as big as the U.S. or Russia's or China's as is (Obviously the U.S. is more capable), global trade will not go away if the U.S. withdraws into its shell, it happened thousands of years before in the ancient world, and Europe before the U.S., obviously security issues will remain but without the biggest loonies (Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are marked as ASBO's) it should be manageable, the biggest problem is can Europe Unite after the Ukraine War into an Economic Union as Political Union is dead and the E.U. may disintegrate if Germany declines!?!
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Let's do the Maths, 8,000,000 men capable of producing children must produce 16,000,000 (2x) children for like for like continuity, they are actually producing 7,500,000 X1.12 actual Russian current reproduction rate = 8,400,000 a reduction of 7,600,000 = 47.5% of population reduction overall in this generation, in previous generations it was more likely 20 to 35% reduction as their birth rate has been low for a while, this is not counting the young male Russians who are living in another country at present, so take a minus 47.5% hit from an already decreasing birth rate and you have problems!?!
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There is no big crisis in Europe apart from Russia's illegal and barbaric invasion of Ukraine, the Energy crisis has been and gone, luckily it was a mild Winter and Europe cut back energy demand by keeping coal plants open, keeping nuclear open, increasing Wind and solar, building LNG plants and securing LNG gas from reliable sources, the Winter of 2023/4 should see less scrambling for energy and by 2030-2035 Europe will be majorly Energy independent, by 2040-2045 it will be renewable energy independent, everything else is just local difficulties caused by weather peaks and troughs, here in the UK a big deal was made in Europe about a lack of seasonal food stuff, mostly fresh tomatoes, but as 98% of other foods were still available it was hardly an issue, prices have risen some people have died from cold and hunger, but that has been the same for quite a few decades now, maybe forever. With water in winter we have floods and in summer we have droughts, that's been the same for as many years as I can remember, mostly it's just poor water management, there is no rainwater shortage, just lack of storage, this is the same for the majority of Europe apart from Spain and maybe Italy which might have to invest in desalination plants or a major storage and irrigation scheme, it's all solvable it's just put back until it's got to be done, same as in the US water management is the key, mind I can't see how California can win a case of hogging all the water and making others pay for it that does seem particularly daft, that is not a fair and equitable scheme!?!
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@@OhlordyWeArefalling Last Winter was the worst one Russia could have taken advantage of, but Europe sorted itself out and arranged supplies from other sources, this year the supplies are coming from the other sources, Russia is out of the loop, their revenue from energy is down 50% as a result and the Rouble is worth one cent to the dollar and falling, I don't know what planet you are on but Europe is going through a mild recession after readjusting the majority of its energy supplies and food prices caused by the illegal Russian invasion, Russia can ill afford a war in Ukraine it will be the fifth biggest economy in Europe when Italy overtakes it next year, Poland will overtake it's economy in ten years, that's the state of mighty Russia, it's going backwards in Ukraine, it's going backwards economically, and backwards as a race!?!
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It's more like a non elected government making a mid term mess at present, who will be out at the next election, but the biggest recent problems in Europe has been caused by COVID, then Russia, then the De Facto European Powerhouse of Germany (Also Italy and numerous others) reliance on Russian Energy crashing the Europe market (Including the U.K.'s). The problem with Mainland Europe is that the big players want a political Union, which if it wasn't dead before then it is dead now, and they should pursue an economic union, which could include all of Europe (That is all of Eurppe that's on the same page - I.E. Not Hungary at the moment). The U.K. population has settled into a role not as a super power but leading to a self sufficient Island state with a robust economy and defence and looking after it remaining dominions, however the government is not on the same page with that at present and still wants us to meddle in other affairs (Ukraine is an Exception to this for the right reasons, and it is heartening to see most of the West supporting them, although again France and Germany are noticeable laggards to the cause). The U.K. has long term systemic problems it has not addressed but the direction of travel has not altered, we are just waiting for the rest in Europe to grip reality, then Europe will become the main Powerhouse, Germany has far bigger problems than the U.K.!
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@Gizziiusa China to the West is a strange place, and it does things that no other country has done, and this could be that they are super efficient or extremely inefficient or a mixture of both. Their G.D.P. trajectory suggests efficiency, their debt pile of 300% of G.D.P. to achieve that G D.P. (and rising) suggests inefficiency, and that is the concern, their large surplus is swallowed up by underlying debt due to inefficiencies in the property market, non productive infrastructure investment and the like, it seems unlikely all will end well, and that's without COVID. COVID has had a negative effect on all the World economies, but China has kept it going for four years, to the end of 2023 being likely due to the second winter wave, where everyone else has taken two years, and China's death rate will still be equivalent to that of the Wider West and other countries!?!
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Winter will be O.K. it's more expensive but solutions exist to counteract that in the long term, short term it's manageable, it's only because of Mainland Europe's dependence on Russian Energy and it's quick withdrawal that has caused problems, it won't happen again (I hope!). Europe will make 20 year contracts with "trusted" suppliers from the world market if that's the cheapest option, Germany is building 5 LNG terminals at present for completion next year, and so it sees its future that way forward for the immediate future. It is a changing time for Europe but that does not mean the wrong path has been chosen, it does not have carbon energy supplies in sufficient quantities but renewables is a long term solution to enable independence from a hostile carbon energy market, and though inroads have been made with renewables, it has a further decade to go, but the pace will increase in intensity. With regard to furnaces and all that it's down to the price of energy again, and when this is stabilised the industries will rise up again, we have been here before! If America's picture is so rosy why is there so much discontent, it also has large swathes disused Rust bucket industries. It is using too many resources per person and it should cut back on them, it is incurring a debt burden because of that (not to the extent that China has, you can thank god) but it is not the land of milk and honey, it does have its own problems, but I'm sure the Wider West will benefit from closer cooperation and put at arms length the Autocratic regime's which seek to undermine us, deeds not words!?!
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@erlandhov1409 Germany greatly miscalculated Russia for decades and furnished them with the capital to start the wars, the Obama administration and Mainland Europe (Apart from the UK and Baltics and Nordics, who were sidelined!) compounded that with its lacklustre response to the Donbas and Crimea invasions. US led NATO did however start training the Ukrainians following the 2014 invasion and the US did signal to Ukraine that Russia was due to invade Ukraine through Belarus and Crimea, which Ukraine dismissed at the time and resulted in them being caught with their pants down. The US, UK , Baltic and Nordic countries initially did exceptionally well in supplying aid for defence and humanitarian purposes against the Russia horde. If the US had not intervened in the conflict (Which is in Europe) with the slow German (Due to the energy dependency) and French (Due to its own interests) response, Ukraine would have lost the war in 2022. Mainland Europe is finally (After majorly being cut off from Russian energy) getting its act together in 2023, with the sterling US effort, which will aid all democratic European Countries and promote strength against the Autocratic regimes. The US will be better served with its allies in Europe increasing its defence due to the Russian invasion, however to have strong allies it should strike trade deals with Europe and resist ties with Autocratic States, this is the best policy in the long run!?!
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Where do you start with this one, Germany, Italy and other European countries reliance on Russian Energy was foolish, their decision (For both countries) not to build New Nuclear is baffling, Germany cites the dangers with nuclear accidents which has directly killed around 10,000 people worldwide, however burning the nice brown coal kills 3,500 people annually in Germany "alone" , Germany is progressing with wind power at a bureaucratic pace (Slow and stop), solar really only works in Southern Europe as when you need it the most in Northern Europe it doesn't work. Germany has quickly built a number of LNG terminals with more to follow in 2023 and 2024 and has secured a 15 year supply (hopefully from "secure" sources this time), which is commendable. However it still does not address the fundamental problem that Europe has with Energy and renewables (Including at least 25% new nuclear) is the answer as that can be put in our backyard. The OPEC and OPEC+ countries are hostile to Europe (....and Asia but that's up to them to work it out) and therefore the transition must be made sooner rather than later, it would be better to plan a Europe wide energy infrastructure but that is too much to ask. I live in the UK, and we have also made big energy errors in the past but by 2030-2035 we will be majorly renewable energy independent, and by 2040 (.....and two trillion quid, one trillion on wind, nuclear and solar and one trillion on grid upgrades) totally energy independent, I hope Europe can do the same, but at present that doesn't appear to be the case, it's all a bit of a quick fix muddle!?!
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The two major nuclear power plant accidents have claimed directly around 3,500 lives each approximately, and contaminated a large swathe of land (of which Ukraine has plenty), since the start of the war Ukraine has been losing that amount of people on average every fortnight, it has the potential to be worse but not much as the plant has been idle for months, the people who perpetrate this act should be immediately indicted for war crimes right up to Shoigu? and Putin. It would better serve Ukraine to have more long range missiles (They have been waiting for 2,000 for over a year now), more patriot systems etc. quicker rather than escalating the war by bringing NATO in, so they can carry out the task in hand, delay is causing the pauses in war, we have "gone in" now go "all in" in supplying the equipment required, and Russia should be threatened that if civilians are further targeted indiscriminately then no target will be off limits in Russia to Ukraine!?!
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@davidclemens1578 A point with regard to the barter system is that it relies on trust and there is trust in the FIAT system for countries that are trustworthy, it can punish countries who are not trustworthy. Adopting gold is obviously a non starter as gold will have to be located in other countries if you do trade with them, you don't run up a long line of credit, there isn't enough of it, the only other viable currency for economy size (If their figures for GDP can be verified!) is China, of which the Yuan (A separate currency to their domestic currency the renminbi for most probably nefarious uses like currency manipulation) which is losing ground on the dollar (whether by design or pressure by the fed is unclear) who in any dispute will win and have major debt problems (57 Trillion USD total debt 300% of GDP for on and off books ledgers, assuming GDP is correct!) You can see where I am going here if you can't trust the figures as they are unverifiable, why would you use them as your reserve currency, it would be a license for them to spend everyone's money from the Whole World not just their poor citizens, FIAT currency is not perfect, like democracy, but it is far better than the alternatives, that's why it works!?!
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The US wouldn't have a population of 1 billion people as the land cannot sustain it, it would be counter productive, the high population centres are based in countries which for numerous centuries have been able to sustain it, it's Mother Nature's way - still.
The people who long term remain in the North will eventually turn white, it's down to the climatic conditions and environment which basically colours the skin, our skin will change with the climate and prevailing conditions in future generations, funnily enough, as in the past.
The exploding increases in population centres above what they are able to sustain, which is the majority of those who are forecast to increase, will cause famine and hardship with the resulting conflict and probable severe population reduction, it would be better to restrict populations to a size which would avoid that scenario as it will just bring widespread misery, also as in the past, it's not a whites against everybody else thing as you portray, it's humans against nature, that is the battle, and some are more successful than others, due mainly to location and leadership!?!
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