Comments by "" (@rstevewarmorycom) on "TED"
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Okoye Ahmose It DOES happen today, it's ALWAYS happening, but 1) it happens and has always happened VERY VERY SLOWLY, taking tens of thousands of years, and 2) we didn't used to move around much, people who move around a lot over many generations defeat the local trend and average out any directions of change so that nothing happens, and 3) sunblock and folic acid and shelter and clothing change sun exposures. Also, the blue eye and blond hair genes originated by mutation around the Black Sea 25,000 years ago. They became advantageous BECAUSE of the lower sunlight at those latitudes, they enabled more vitamin D to be produced. The sun didn't "change" skin, the skin is always mutating in all directions, but this mutation became extremely advantageous for reproduction because it prevented Rickets, so people with it were more able to reproduce successfully than people with darker skin in higher latitudes, and slowly came to dominate the population.
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Christopher Willis As a "future nuclear engineer" I think you have inevitable blinders on. I'm a physicist, when I got out of school the nuclear industry approached me about running one of their reactors. I declined. All my fellow physics graduates declined. We saw the writing on the wall even then, and that was the '80's.
The IPCC is desperate to save the world. That's nice, but these guys are NOT engineers, they don't seem to realize that it would take 10 times the current cement production of the USA to build the 10,000 reactors they would like, and that we would never beat climate change that way, it would take too long. Reactors take too long to build and commission and the process cannot be short-cutted without dangers. And we don't have a tenth the educated talent to run them. It would take over a generation to produce that many nuclear competent scientists, and the high salaries of said experts will bankrupt the process of trying to produce cheap competitive power.
Wind and solar are cheaper than any nuclear so far conceived, and are ready to be expanded on a war-time-like footing right now, and today!
While nuclear is fascinating, I think you may be committing your career to a dead horse.
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JombieMann It doesn't much matter, that amount from solar and wind is all that we will have. The quickest cheapest way to add to it at that point is STILL solar and wind. So they had better get to agitating for it.
You "not thinking" that solar and wind will ever make up a large proportion of generating capacity is just you "not thinking". The numbers work, I'm a physicist, I have napkined this problem many times.
And no, it's NOT too expensive and unpredictable. It's CHEAPER than nuclear and anything else PER WATT, and that's what we need to measure. And solar and wind are distributed, the wind and sun don't fail everywhere at once, if the equipment failed it can be replaced in a day, and unlike nuclear we don't need whole backup plants for when they go down unexpectedly for weeks or months, which THEY DO!!
Wind and solar are ALREADY making up 50% of the power in Germany. And they are continuing to build!
You are being overly PESSIMISTIC, and for no good reason. You have some sort of layman's "impression" that solar and wind are "weak" or "unreliable", when NONE of the data shows that. Just because they don't involve centralized powerful machines throbbing and endangering their workers and all nearby, you assume that something that runs quietly could never do the job because, in effect: "It doesn't make enough noise", or some such bullshit. Typical science illiterate.
Go buy a $100 panel that makes like 100 Watts. Put it on your roof or carport, or your RV. See how much you can run off it, then buy a few more, and a few more, and soon you have a roof full of them and they are making 3000 Watts for you, and you put a few batteries in your garage and that runs most of your stuff? Now, what were you saying? This sort of math sneaks up on you, but it is inexorable. You and 100 of your neighbors invest in a half MegaWatt wind turbine, just a small one. You can each get 5000 Watts when the wind blows. You hook that to your batteries in your garage with a $200 inverter. It meets all your needs and pays for itself in eight MONTHS!! Inexorable.
It's hard to admit and realize that we have been cheated for power by big players for a hundred years, but that IS what happened. Nobody knew how to do it but them, so we assumed it was hard. It isn't. This always happens with new technology, those in the know rip everybody else off for a while, till the competition develops. Solar and wind IS the competition, and now they are eating the big players' lunch!
And now with the new technology and education about electricity, we can do it ourselves and get rid of the big players.
The NIMBYs and BANANAs (not in my back yard & build absolutely nothing anywhere near anything) will simply find the power turned off till they comply with the rest of us. When they find they can't get it any other way they will freak out and beg to join up.
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JombieMann Everything you just said is a distortion of the truth being promoted by fossil fuel interests. I'm a physicist and I have bothered to do the calculation. If we cover every roof in the US with photovoltaic panels, we can meet 90% of our current energy usage in homes and businesses. Manufacturing takes a bit more, but not that much. Wind turbines in the midwest now sell power at under 3.5 cents/kW-hr. That IS cheaper than power from coal. We could ALSO meet all our needs with only wind power, it is that abundant. Both of these pay for themselves in under a year and provide energy for 40 years. The very small amount of power we need at night can be more than adequately supplied by a rack of storage batteries in each garage, or stored on board your electric car batteries. Your notion of "hundreds of square miles" is totally erroneous. Nuclear would not work because we would need to build over 10,000 nuclear plants to meet our needs, and we don't even have enough cement for the concrete to do so. It would require 5-10 times our current production of cement. Energy companies now installing wind and solar have found that instead of making the grid less stable it makes it MORE stable, because there are no massive breakdowns in such highly distributed equipment. In other words, the so-called "base load problem" is a fossil fuel company myth. The costs of power from renewables FIGURES IN the costs of building, in fact that is MOST of the cost, since they consume no fuel at costs. There are solar farms now producing power at 5.6 cents/kW-hr, which is below that of methane-fired plants. Only laymen and amateurs at this make the mistake of thinking they need "great big plants" to supply our needs. The thorium reactor in the '50's was a money-pit and the govt ditched it as too expensive. NOBODY has ever made a nuclear plant that produced truly cheap power, the unforeseen cost overruns eat them alive, which is why none of the big money now is even thinking of nuclear, they are all buying solar and wind as fast as they can.
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nulI No, you have wind, which is almost a perfect complement, since it blows more at night and lower sun conditions. Nuclear is relatively safe, that's not my objection. It's that it is always much more expensive per Watt generated, than are renewables, which are NOW cheaper and becoming ever yet cheaper by the year and the expansion of their production. Nuclear will not ever keep up with that. Never. All the studies on final costs of nuclear reactors to date show they were horribly expensive by the Watt, when all costs and downage were factored in. Solar and wind do not GO down spectacularly, a few panels might test bad and have to be replaced or their wiring fixed, one in a hundred turbines might need service, but none of these amount to a significant percentage of power production. They are predictable, and so need less backing up than major sized plants of any ilk.
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