Comments by "" (@jmitterii2) on "Patrick Boyle"
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If you play with crypto you realize it's not what it pitches to be:
1) It's often more expensive and always charges a fee no matter the size of the transaction. And exceeds all payment processor fees very frequently VISA, Mastercard, Discovery, AMEX are often cheaper, and with various credit card and banks these fees are often $0... it always costs to make transaction with crypto.
2) Speed is a farce, it often takes over an hour just for a few confirmations, many require 9 or more confirmations, and those with reduced non ASIC block require hundreds of confirmations since such blockchains are more vulnerable to 51% attack.
If the network is crammed it could take a day or so for ASIC chains to process transactions to enough confirmations to know if it will stick to the decentralized ledger.
3) There is no security. If you accidentally submit to the wrong wallet such as tethers TRON or EC20, it's over.
4) No FDIC or SIPC security on any of these deposits at exchanges.
5) Not scale-able. Even ETH is not scale-able. Hence why ADA exists, which isn't scale-able either but at token to invest in someone who promises he can make a scale-able block chain that doesn't cost ridiculous sums of money to make transactions.
But inability to scale is a built in feature to block chain, it's to ensure transactions have agreed consensus over the entire users of nodes so that not a few could just make up whatever they want on the ledger and force the smaller participants to accept it.
So it's unlikely to scale without becoming centralized. Which defeats the ponit of decentralized thesis.
Above are the big factors of over hyped that is crypto. And really its uselessness.
Going into the future 10 years to 20 years:
6) Further out into the future, various ASIC proof of work and even easier faster models for de-centralized ledgers become useless whenever sufficient quantum computing develops. All security is obsolete as 51% would be simple, as well as mining coins becomes no feat at all... QM qubits excel at such algorithms: their function is to place all possible values at once and return only those values that work. Only quantum encryption models that work against other quantum computing is centralized thus hidden algorithms and blocking of iteration methods (hence why your bank or other login screens give only a few chances to guess your password, block chain mining (hash rate) is just that iteration without limits. QM doesn't need iteration to solve these problems. Again, it dumps all possible values at one time into a problem and returns only those answers. Reducing a problem that could take hundreds of thousands of years at an iteration attempt of 2 trillion attempts (hashes) a second, to a few minutes.
QM computing is a decade to decade and a half threat though. However this could be sooner than later as IBM and some other institutions have announced various plans to achieve larger than expected qubit computers up into the mega-qubit. Qubit power is 2 to the qubit... basically just 2000 qubits has the computation power of 1,418 followed by 599 more digits.
Or more stars in the observable universe. 14 times the number of all the atoms of the universe.
And that's only 2 kiloqubits.
Currently, most damning about the crypto thing is that since its inception it was nothing but a speculative bubble that turned into a ponzi scheme. Initially from 2010 to 2013 with Mt Gox and the other exchange scam.
And then taken over and presently with two scams 2015 to present Tether Bitfinex scam with affiliates of Binance, Bybit, Kracken, even now registered and trading on the NASDAQ Coinbase... irony that NY recently declared in court findings that Tether had repeatedly lied about their USD holdings, whether they owned Bitfinex or not (which they did), mislead an audit to a bank, and simply never had a dollar to dollar match available to redeem any tokens.
Tether responded by not only prohibiting NY customers from owning tether as per their terms of service, but ALL Americans are not permitted by the terms of service to hold tethers.
And the entire thing with tether is an open an obviously circus like cartoon scam.
We know what the next future movies will cover.
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Globalization is a recycled term as Patrick mentioned. Literally the same term used prior to the panic 1873 and again during the 1920's leading to the 1929 bust.
Other terms used have been colonialism. And such colonialism goes back further than the triangle trade of the 1600 and 1700's.
But you can go back to even prior to antiquity of Greece and later Rome. Going back to classical era of Greek city states culminating in doom for various empires in the great bronze age collapse.
Essentially, it almost always included slavery or a form of feudal like structures. Very few actually benefited from it directly or even indirectly. And such economies always boom and fell apart in a great bust.
The term is too gity without looking at the fundamental problems; generally it uses exploited labors either slave, feudal peasantry, or a tyrannized repressive dictator or oligarchy of some sort or another that gives way to what I've coined inauthentic comparative advantage. Lots of other subsidies also come into play as well; where producers receive tax money to offset costs for other inputs beyond labor costs. As well as operating costs like shipping and inventory; distribution costs often get a hefty subsidy by the taxes of the nation.
So the costs are not actually lower, but subsidized by desperate, suppressed, enslaved, and tax funded other non-labor inputs and distribution.
The quality is worse, but the price is more attractive and floods the market forcing better expertise quality makers to go bust. Price wars we see with oligopolies and monopolies.
And in the end you have a late stage where only a few getting the benefits.
Supply chains get idiotic as pretzel like zig zag of various stages of goods making require even further fuels to move the inputs and sub assemblies and final assemblies then various retail.
All this sourcing from all over the place takes more energy which costs more. But this excess cost, yet again, gets offset by either direct subsidies for those purposes of transportation and/or by the other subsidies of inputs via tax money and suppressed labor wages; that the extra cost on energy is offset by the low or no wages being paid and the inputs being mostly paid by the colonial country.
And often these pretzel like supply chains lead to a collapse along with the fact it leaves very few able to consume the goods and services because everyone falls in wage/salaries toward the suppressed labor; aggregate demand falls. It's probably why hyper inflation didn't immediately come out of the massive QE that was being done by many countries after the 2010's following the bank bust and massive bail out to the financial sector. Wages stayed low, and businesses were very scared to grow very much knowing that very few, the top 20% were really left being able to purchase the vast majority of the goods and services being supplied to the market.
Between the inefficient supply chain that becomes fragile when ultimately resentment takes place and war happens, financial disasters take place as the top 20% can't hold an economy together with massive suppression toward the bottom 80%, and often to placate the 80% in less suppressive nations, these countries often under go wars of conquest or civil war.
And it all falls apart.
It's moronic.
Trade is good.
But label all trade as good is dumb.
Some trade is bad.
Authentic comparative advantage is a key to figure out what type of trade is good, and which type is actually harmful over time.
If the country in question has more of resource than other countries, it's a good trade. An authentic comparative advantage.
If a country has expertise that's better than another, than its a good trade.
Actual quality and or abundance of good or service.
If it's forced via slave labor or otherwise suppressed labor or gigantic subsidies this constitutes an inauthentic comparative advantage that will put those with better expertise out of business lowering quality, as well as driving supply chains into idiot spaghetti, and all nations fall in equilibrium as aggregate demand falls. The remaining 20% or the top 10% simply don't need 1 billion toasters or 1 billion ovens or 1 billion massaches etc. Instead you're left with great resentment among the less suppressed nations, and even of the tyrannical nations, they tend to realize the gigs up and start abandoning the late stage colonialism/globalism; which becomes very dangerous as supply chains are all over the place due to the inauthentic comparative advantage described.
It's idiotic.
Since recorded history, over and over, this type of bad trade keeps popping up, because it does give a quick boost to economic boom. But it always goes bust because it's unsustainable. It only really helps the top 20%, and eventually maybe only the top 10%... until it helps nobody.
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Since then, gift cards have huge restrictions... like not being able to get money orders or any cash equivs.
So that makes it a complete cock blocker.
Try it.
I have LOL! You have to now spend it on merchandise... oh think about returning it and getting a refund... in cash...
That doesn't work either. Payment will show it was from a gift card visa or whatever, and that refund must either be placed back on that card, or a new gift card given, that only merchandise or equiv in purchasing power is refunded; no cash or equiv.
That, I accidentally discovered, when paying for something partially with gift cards and my normal card for the remaining balance. I took something back, she said oh, I see you paid with debit and two other gift cards, we can refund you up to the dollar amount you paid on the debit card, but the remainder we would need to issue you another gift card for the remaining balance... I was just wanting an exchange anyway, not a refund, just got the unlucky defective vacuum cleaner out of the box. The replacement still works to this day no problems.
But yeah... he ruined it for us all... he could have quietly told us about it in reddit board LOL!
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Really, since Mt Gox from 2010 to 2013 and now iFinex aka Tether aka Bitfinex from 2014 to present are responsible for the biggest pyramid and currently with "defi" Ponzi scheme both require constant inflows and use persistent pumping of their poker chips to foam the market.
All of crypto is nothing but a scam.
That will violently end.
The actual use of the stuff is horrible:
1) Always costs just to move your funds from one wallet to another even if the wallets are yours because by design its to put in place on the ledger the funds and confirmation of those funds with consensus.
2) Time it takes to fully confirm a transaction takes long periods of time to authenticate. There's no intermediaries in many instances so quick merchant transactions are near impossible. Even with staking or proof of staking; and those staking their coins or forced to by design of their crypto make for difficult to use crypto... if you're forced to stake it, not all your funds are available when they're covering the funds of another transaction.
3) No security and nobody to call when anything goes wrong.
4) 51% attack and open ledgers even with today's technology is possible if miners cut back on mining for a variety of reasons such as not profitable to mine anymore due to the dumping of the price of the crypto.
5) cost of transactions become huge during heavy use. And this too is by design to avoid a 51% or centralization of the decentralized system. No crypto has anyway to really scale up to be a genuine payment processor.
And then there's the con aspect. Why has this shit appreciated that much when so many merchants or other entities still don't accept it as currency? And those that have, have recanted their acceptance? And some that "accept it" don't they actually only accept it on the premise that you will immediately exchange it for the currency of the land to the amount equal to the charges of the bill due; that's not accepting it. That's accepting the real money you get from the crytpo; much like payment processing won't accept gold or silver, you need to first take it to an exchange and get currency... therefore this stuff isn't currency.
So what's up with the many bubbles? And some going to a high low base line?
Pump and dumps. Mt Gox from inception of crypto essentially until 2013... at which the stuff fell back to a few bucks base line. Didn't grow. But then 2014 to 2015 new players pumping this stuff with their version of stable coins came to the fore... Tether. They're responsible for the pump in the 2017 and subsequent dump as inflows turned to out flows, after their mega tether printer poker chips went burrrr.
And then again in August 2020, my guess, NY AG was after them and this was the last squeeze before exiting and running for the hills... some other scammers probably with their own hustle completely unrelated started to fomo into this junk due to COVID19 boredom or failing business or a quick hustle to get out of debt scheme: those being Tesla later on and early in August 2020 Micro Strategies. both failing financially; Saylor the CEO having a bad record settling with fraud on 3 years 1997 to 2000 signing off on false earnings reports where they actually made losses 3 years in a row. Not profits.
And Musk who seems in the past several years a bit in over his head with an electric car company getting by only by more debt and carbon credits, carbon credits that are quickly losing cash value as other car companies are now producing EV's and earning their own carbon credits.
Whatever their motives, their foaming of this stuff probably sent prices of BTC to even higher than expected from the Tether scammers.
Of course, when everyone has invested what they will, and those who have cashed out to take profits to appropriately diversify; and those who are careful with their money learned of Tether, and their settlement in April 2021 and then Tethers ridiculous 2 pie charts that raised more concerns on the backing of their reserves than calmed... the smart money cashed out... even Musk took over $200 million dollars off the table.
Saylor, already in over his head, if he sells any now, it would ruin his firm as he's taken out massive debts including junk bonds and direct loans as well issuance of stock to purchase more bitcoin over the past almost year now; he would risk crashing the price and forcing a call on many of his loans forcing them in at least Ch 11 if not Ch 7.
Back to Tether.
With recent outflows over May and into July, the real money backing is severely lacking, and reserves of Tether in crypto (assuming they have enough BTC or ETH or some other crypto) to exchange on fiat to buy up USDT to keep the peg to $1 is quickly becoming impossible.
So their recent pump over the weekend July 24-25 under exclusively tether exchanges (as all derivative markets are prohibited in USD) for longers and shorters under huge amounts of leverage; as news came out that Tether is under Federal Criminal investigation.
In the most obvious half decade long scam.
All of crypto is likely to be consigned to prohibition as pyramid schemes and Peter to pay Paul ie Ponzi schemes are today.
There really is no use for block chain technology... essentially its a marriage of not useless torrent file nodes (obsolete because disk space has become so cheap that file sharing is impractical: slower and more costlier and riskier) with a consensus read write function.
That's all my take on the subject. Buy the stuff and figure losing all of your money.
Important reads before continuing to invest or starting to invest in this, as to what and why I think this stuff is a huge scam.
Swing trading was fun... but I think no technical analysis will warn you of the exact moment tether becomes insolvent or is taken offline. To which 80% of the liquidity vanishes, and more than half of the crypto exchanges freeze up and go disconnected. from the internet.
I don't even think American registered exchanges like BitTrex or Coinbase will come out well... and since neither have FDIC or SIPC which is rather ridiculous neither exchanges come out and state this plainly:
Did a search in June 2021 to find out... and they both play games around clearly stating they're not FDIC nor SIPC insured, instead they do a song and dance act:
Coinbase remarks how they have FDIC on their bank accounts with their banks... hinting you have some pass through protection... you don't.
FDIC insures only up to 250K standard and only max $750K if 3 beneficiaries are named.
SIPC doesn't insure deposits on these crypto exchanges. Therefore you're safe to dabble with brokers that deal in stocks and just happen to have an outlet for crypto markets... at least your USD deposits will be insured.
BitTrex just remarks about their $300 million dollar insurance they took out for themselves against hacks. But none clearly state they are not FDIC or SIPC insured.
All their insurance they to tap dance about, is to protect themselves. Not your individual accounts.
If you lose all your money, you can't say you weren't warned.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/07/26/executives-at-tether-worlds-third-largest-cryptocurrency-reportedly-face-criminal-probe-for-misleading-banks/?sh=43cd661f41ec
https://www.coindesk.com/tether-executives-facing-criminal-bank-fraud-charges-report
https://www.sumcap.com/single-post/tether-bitcoin-s-crypto-nite
https://www.singlelunch.com/2021/05/19/the-tether-ponzi-scheme/
https://www.singlelunch.com/2021/01/24/the-next-btc-crash-could-be-truly-epic/
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Most banking with the worker class, was often done among each other. Early 1900's into the 1980's, workers, often using their similar union membership, to build credit unions.
My dad, who isn't that old, recalls in the late 70's early 80's, their company credit union started with one particular guy who held the funds and ledger using an old utility closet as his office. It became a larger credit union. He and another fellow employee kept up on deposits and withdrawals, interest payments, loan making, payment processing.
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1) There should be no reason to file your taxes using some 3rd party racketeering stupidity. When it's a simple tax form: any realized securities profits, wage/salary income, a few rental properties income, bank and stock dividends foreign or domestic, etc.
2) Stock buy backs are a miss-allocation of wealth of funds via stocks/equities, encourages many businesses to use any existing capital to be used as a pump and dump scam on stock market allowing executives to pump the price via the stock buy back to the level of price to their key performance indicators so they can cash out on warrants and options and other securities... but adds absolutely no value to the company itself... not to the shareholders nor to the employees nor to society in general increasing supply of output as it diminishes capital investment to grow the business.
Stock buy backs are simply a pump so the executives can reach their exercise or equity price goals to sell into the pump, a pump and dump scam.
Stock buy backs ought be prohibited with only a few reasons for allowance... mopping of stocks as a business is going private for example.
3) Medicare and medicaid should always have negotiation power on medical services and goods. No other country doesn't regulate an extremely inelastic demand curve sector as medical; people will pay any price to not die, suffer, or get worse; so price mechanism simply doesn't work: more suppliers and more quantity supplied won't mean prices go down... the demand and will always be inelastic... prices will remain high regardless of the amount supplied and amount of suppliers supplying the goods/service.
Hence why US medical margins on medical goods and services are extreme. No other country allows such extreme inelastic demand goods like medical to become absurdly profitable, a form of morbid price gouging... and literally morbid in that it literally injures and kills people as they ration need medicines like insulin below their required Rx need to maintain health and life.
Government spending isn't the source of most inflation, in fact its not really capable of taking money out of the system nor injecting more money into the system that is the root of inflation.
The cause of inflation is and always is a monetary phenomena... and our debt based system that is the interest rates that each bank is allowed to charge each other lending to each other over short term to keep their fractional lending scheme running and not becoming completely insolvent. Also, how much quantitative easing a central bank or in the case of the USA a private banking cartel ironically called the Federal Reserve (even though its no more Federal than Federal Express... it's not really a governmental agency, but a quasi governmental agency in that the Chairmen is designated by the President of the USA and confirmed by congress. And a loose framework purpose buy law that the banking cartel is supposed to seek monetary policy that maximizes employment and provides for stable prices. That's about it. Everything else is private, the elections of all the Fed Reserve presidents and executives are between all the banks, and even the chairman position is on a short list that is drawn up buy the private banks for the POTUS to choose from.
The Fed Reserve or in other nations their central bank policies is the source of inflation.
If the overnight rates are high then low or no inflation or even deflation.
If the overnight rates are low then inflation happens.
If the Fed Reserve or national banks engage in various methods of so called quantitative easing: buying governmental treasury bonds with bank reserves to keep interest rates low, and/or buying bank loans from various banks that allow banks to cash out of their loan they hold, the bank can therefore quickly make a profit on the loan and have cash reserves to make yet more loans adding to the money supply. 99% of all inflation comes from Fed Reserve or National Banking policy in debt based monetary systems; banks then lending more money out.
So it doesn't really matter what the US or UK or EU member nations spend or don't spend or tax or don't tax when it comes to inflation; as all their spending is bond invested procured, no new money is created, money is just transferred from investor buying governmental bonds and treasury bonds that otherwise could have been spent elsewhere instead spent on execute the government program including paying interest and repayment on mature older bonds.
So if anyone is looking for a reduction in inflation a prime necessity is that the Fed Reserve must raise interest rates, and lower their balance sheet to sop up the excess money in the system. To halt the ridiculous sum of borrowing (which banks dislike because they are in the business of selling debt, a big conflict of interest here).
Discouraging borrowing via higher interest rates is the only way to reduce inflation.
There are some methods to reduce some prices in certain sectors which would help overall inflation:
Some targeted lower prices on necessary goods and services (which would help overall inflation and even cause a slight yet healthy amount of and much needed deflation) would be to invoke supply of necessary goods like more housing both single and multi-dwelling, develop the utilities required for these new housing constructions instead of forcing the brunt on developers which then just pass the cost of building the utilities (sewers, electricity, natural gas, water, communications, etc.) on to the price of the home or rental price.
Encourage actual competition via trust busting; monopolies, oligopolies, monopsonies, etc. Some entities are beyond oversized and resulting in fewer suppliers in the market and thus smaller quantity supplied goods and services; these entities cause this via price war jacking prices up after competition is eliminated, buying up competition to eliminate competitors then jacking up prices, forcing competition to compete via inauthentic comparative advantage means such as using tyrannized and/or destitute nations' labor and various subsidized goods and operational costs; a type of race to the bottom; unsustainable; not new, Greek city states and Rome did this with outright slavery and this dislocated many people slave and non-slave alike hence their very short term boom bust and constant civil wars.
And a genuine plan on critically needed goods and services like energy and transportation.
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They're not green either.
All you're doing is fronting your carbon footprint.
The amount of lithium and nickel, 140 plus pounds of lithium per EV car, takes enormous amount of fossil fuels in the mining and refining process of lithium. And much of it for whatever reason isn't being recycled when the batteries go bad and are replaced, that part surprises me, even with recycling, it takes various chemicals that are fossil fuel intensive and energy intensive to produce.
And you're only purchasing a medium of energy. Not the energy itself.
So the actual energy used on the EV is likely still some fossil fuels to 100 percent fossil fuels depending on what is used for the grid where you charge your car.
It's not a practical solution for commuters either. Extra expense in both charging and the cost of the car and the short battery life.
And yes, they are fire starters. They're dangerous. That problem has been a factor with lithium batteries since they're use forever. It's partly why phone and lap top makers sort of spike their batteries to just stop working after 3 to 4 years; they know the longer you keep using these batteries the inevitable dendrites build up will lead to shorts and eventual catastrophic failure and a spark an fire if the battery is attempted to be charged or is actually charged. Phones and lap tops if fully charged can create make sparks and flames, while a large series of battery cells that are in an EV is dumping massive amounts of energy into that fire.
And they're hard to put out for that reason, and that lithium burns in the presence of water.
All the Alkali metals, all the ones elemental charge to the left: lithium, Sodium, potassium, rubidium, cesium, etc. all react exothermically on contact with water. Youtube it yourself. They all react rather explosively.
And yes, lithium batteries rely on elemental lithium as it's used to store the energy; it's not a alloyed or compound of lithium, but elemental di-lithium... same with sodium batteries.
So there is no advantage in these things.
People just reached out for what seemed simple and didn't brain in their skull to think a bit and realize the crux is that you're not changing the energy source... only using a medium.
And that medium is even more fossil fuel or at least energy consuming to mine and refine than the same 10 years of petrol consumption.
The numbers never balanced.
We can thank Musk for spamming his con artistry to the max, and people wanting a simple solution even if it wasn't a solution at all but a scam.
Like Norman G Baker who scammed thousands of people making millions back in the 1930's that he could cure cancer with his "formula 5". He, at least, was convicted of fraud and served some time in prison, but his penalty financially was a few thousand dollars, and he kept several million, tens of million in today's dollars and retired to Florida a rich fuck.
Grifts.
But we have brains.
Why not use them?
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@williamprior7831 To scammers and those in the wrong in a dispute, I certainly hope it's very visible.
Let's face it, Adam Smith is used today as away for a few elites to convince the unwashed masses to hand over their democratic power to form agreed upon rules of a market in the exchange of goods and services.
Their propaganda has scored a many brainwashed individuals; cult members now, that if JP Money Bags were to demand that people ought for the sake of freedom take a mallet to their groin region with swift and full forcing strokes, they would indeed take part in destroying their private regions.
What banks have done; all of them private in most nations, all in the US and this includes other financial institutions, is to make them seem so essential beyond that of basics of food, shelter, water, medical, education, security, etc. that they must be provided for even when they poor investment or bad accounting, etc.
That there is no hope without their private banks... that they can't just be taken over as they indeed can be, even in the US by the FDIC; all depositors up to an amount are made good on their deposits, encouraged to continue to bank there, loans are still under obligation to be repaid, and the entire defunct bank is sold or spun off to another existing bank capable of handing the deposits and loan portfolios of the defunct bank for long term operations.
What was done in 2008 to salvage a bankrupt banking system was absurd.
The best method was probably to nationalize them, mark to market all principle loans for individual mortgages and developers to both allow people to afford to stay in their homes, and developers to continue building homes as it wasn't housing glut problem but an affordability inflated housing pricing bubble via fractional reserve lending in concert with other banks to appraise higher and higher principle loans to make up for diminishing returns on lower and lower interest rates as well as make large principles loans that could be spun off and sold to other firms for immediate profits and free up more reserves for more pumping lending, make good on all deposits, ensure credit availability to all businesses particularly payroll accounts.
Once all the misdeeds were adjusted: home prices and other artificially inflated prices of things perhaps including student loans and auto loans, were readjusted to that of real term affordability un-inflated via the pump up by banks on these appraisals; the government would then spin off the massive accounts into private credit unions and banks; re-institute various rules so that these banks function as solvent enterprises for deposit banking and lending; keeping separate more risky commercial deposit banking that is geared toward more risky investments such as stocks, commercial/junk bonds, etc.
And of course, a housing program to ensure buildings of multi-dwelling and individual units were added to supply commensurate with that of the growth of the population; knowing full well that the fractional reserve pump that added to some housing wasn't adequate to the growth of the population:
Construction starts per 1,000 households from 1960 to 2017 including single family and multi-family houses:
1960-65 peak 29.0 units
1970-75 peak 35.3 units
1975-80 peak 26.8 units
1983-88 peak 20.0 units
1990-94 peak 15.0 units
1995-2000 peak 16.0 units
2001-05 peak 18.2 units
2006-10 peak 5.00 units
2011-17 peak 9.5 units
As you can see the so called housing boom wasn't the amount created peaking at just 18.2 units... half that of 1960-75, and well short through into 1988.
It was and always was an affordability issue.
In fact, fewer homes were made at any time during that past several decades to that of the population.
A major housing program was indeed required as the private system was insufficient as historical norms would dictate: early 1880 to 1930 shortage of housing almost totally privately supplied gave way to slum lords and districts and shanty towns in many areas of the country.
Prior to 1880 from 1863 Home Stead Act and Land Grant Acts both provided free land and grant money to build on those lands.
National Housing Act of 1934 provided increased developmental grants for modern housing (electricity, water, sewer, etc.).
National Housing Act of 1937 increased this providing even more funds to local public housing agencies to develop land: roads, sewers, electrical works, water works, etc.
Housing Act of 1949 increased even further construction of public housing where costs were not affordable without, and where it was mortgage insurance for private borrowing to purchase a house, and many other financing of other dwellings including farms, building techniques, and urban renewal projects to take dirt floored shanty towns into properly constructed houses.
The unfortunate turn of events with both the repeal of Glass-Steagall act via the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999 allowing deposit banks to become "creative" and mingle with commercial riskier financial activities, and the year prior Quality Housing and Work Responsibility Act of 1998, that defunded public housing, created the useless section 8 voucher program, and placed more people into debt beyond their abilities to repay than those who could and gave limited to no regards into price affordability and control to supply housing via the Hope IV program
Was a pure dismantling of helpful market rules for housing and financial markets in favor of a few, and in a short decade period, reinvented the great depression economic collapse style with the even less supply output of housing and even higher prices; turning into an insolvent wreck and a fortune to a few.
https://www.npr.org/2018/08/06/629410064/the-new-housing-crisis-shut-out-of-the-market
Markets have existed since time immemorial.
They are by concise definitions a forum whereupon people with agreed upon rules meet to exchange goods and services.
At no point are they necessarily free or not free. The entire premise is meaningless... markets often were in the trade of un-free slaves or indentured servants, or came with various price to admission even today it costs to lots of money to trade directly on the floor of the NYSE, etc. The necessity of some items including food and water and shelter were dire and inability to make an exchange meant life or death. And there have always been agreed upon rules such as time and place, disclosure requirements, prohibition on threat or use of violence, dishonesty, bribery, etc.
The phrase free markets is as meaningless an utterance as telling someone to go north of the north pole.
Key point is that markets are first and foremost built upon agreed upon rules.
Therefore the propounding of free markets or less regulation is only the outcry of a few who would want to strip you of a democratic power to make such rules of markets, that you hand them over willingly so they may make the rules. And these few will make the rules indeed in favor of themselves, at the detriment of you, every moment they can.
"Free market" mantra is a con to swindle the power of the people to participate in the rule making process.
Pure and fucking simple.
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Last year there was a lot chicanery involving meme stocks... not an extremely coordinated pump and dump, but the volume of buy limits that would pulse thru would indicate large money would (as with btc and other crypt too) would buy up huge amounts of on a block order pumping the stock, it would wayn a bit in price usually to 50% or less retracement and another pulse of a big block buyer extending the move to 100% sometimes 168% and sometimes even to the 240isth% fib extension. Large sell orders would get places at the very top in the order books as I suspect the big money was hoping scalp up the cream at ever higher prices.
IF the stock had option contracts they would also force gamma squeezes... and this was largely on smaller cap names early to mid 2021... but latter part of 2021 this same thing hit large caps like Amazon and AAPL... I played a long following these pumps... and I would quickly dump if it was more of an in an out trade (same week latto expirations). And typically there would be a very big retracement down when the pumping was done. The Amazon pump was particularly obvious that it wasn't small money forcing the gamma squeezes (buying the call options slightly out of the money) because the stock was $3K (before the big 10 for 1 split), and the call premiums that close to the money (slightly out of the money) was still often 28.00 to 30.00 x 100 option premium or 2,800 to 3,000 per option contract... and the volume that would get bought was often 6,000 to 10,000 contracts in a single minute... that's not even your typical margin day trader who has a $200K to 2 million account to trade typically the futures and perhaps a few other underlying stocks/options; keep in mind these are same week expirations, sometimes on Thursdays expiring the next day Friday... or the very same day.
Recently, this year, some UOA, can't remember the name, but lots of either puts or calls (can't remember the betting direction), but over $300K in premium paid for same week expiration. Next day a big news event sent the stock moving. The commentator I watch had circled that one on some of the UOA the day prior, and the very next day when the stock soared he laugh, hmm now this was an obvious insider trade, and gave a suggestion to whoever did it to make it less obvious, don't buy same week expiration contracts, perhaps spread them a bit at least go out a few weeks if not a month or or two and spread them around a little. Perhaps hedge them with a few opposite direction plays to at least make it seem like you don't have insider information that this news would drop. And his mantra, but they don't care, the SEC is still in a coma.
Perhaps the SEC is finally waking up from their coma?
Or this was just a yawn?
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Luna is now 0.0071 USD as of 8:36PM 5/12/22.
And UST is at 0.14 USD as of 8:37 PM 5/12/22.
Complete collapse.
Next will be Tether. Then USDC... or maybe USDC?
The problem with Tether is that they're likely not backed at all by any real collateral... USDT has been pumping billions and then apparently "selling them" or "giving them" away to casino tether based margin exchanges that offer 100x leverage to trade other crytpo like BTC ETH or even Doge... ADA and many others.
This stable coin stupidity is a reserve currency inflation system that has caused the price of BTC and ETH and other crypto to go to the moon. So long as real money outflows don't kill the system and cause a run on the these stable coins.
Pyramid and Ponzi scheme. It's why BTC went from $100 to as high as $69K in 5 years.
It's an over leveraged pyramid scam... tether representing 80% of crypto liquidity.
And it's also why so many use USDT... to trade other crypto on these margin exchanges.. SEC has not approved any of these securities for contracts to short and long any crypto. But with a VPN and tether only trading exchanges like Bybit, Derbit, Binance, etc. several of them, they all trade in tethers... and often offer lots of "freebies" tethers to trade with, only so many of these poker chips go to Coinbase or Bittrex or the softer side of Binance or Kracken to be sold for real money.
And yes, Tether actually has to be sold on an exchange... tether does not redeem their tokens... you sell them.... what tether does do is occasionally come in on an exchange and wash trade buying up the ask order book when the price of a tether goes too far below $1.00000 USD.
So a run on tether is frankly inevitable. We can see all the exchanges and money flows... and net real money outflows have been persistent since August last year.
The pyramid scheme needs new real money inflows because there are simply too many tethers printed and not enough real money to cover them all.
Same with Circle coin... with exception at least last time I checked Coinbase does redeem for no commission fee USD to USDC 1 for 1. And back to USD from USDC 1 for 1.
Coinbase seems to be acting as a offloading ramp... and perhaps an onloading ramp for real money inflows and outflows from circle coin.
USDC also suffers similar problems as tether.. they've lied in the past. Claiming they had $1 for every 1 USDC. Later admitting and releasing a non-audited statement showing 60% of their tokens at that time were backed by USD and 40% was held in some other asset.
Both Tether and USDC since last summer have gone on a minting spree pumping billions of these things... the higher they've minted, the higher the price of ETH and BTC and other crypto coins.
It's a massive pyramid scheme.
As written in tether's own recent statements, they own some other crypto as collateral... probably lots of BTC as Tether also owns BitFinex their own crypto exchange. And they likely bought using their poker chips lots of BTC and since BTC on many real money exchanges are now selling BTC at the inflated prices... for now... they could sell some BTC and other crypto like ETH for real money to buy up the ask order book on USDT to USD real money exchanges to maintain the peg.
Again, this all requires all crypto to stay high as possible for sufficient collateral, and when a run happens, this causes tether to sell their crypto holdings further decreasing the funds they have available buy up order books to maintain the peg of USDT to USD.
A run on crypto in general or on tether... or both looking for the exit means they all go bust.
Same with Circle/USDC.
The entire thing is one big pyramid scheme... acting like their own fractional reserve lending... just without a government, FDIC or SIPC, or any other backstops.
They're a run on the bank pyramid scheme waiting to fall apart.
Terra was first.
Next, it will be one of these... it is thought that if BTC drops to $20K or so, that Tether will have a hard time to maintain the peg outflows as their collateral in BTC and other crypto will be insufficient with decreasing prices on that collateral to raise real money USD to use to buy up tethers on exchanges being sold for cash to maintain the peg.
When either those two fail, it will cascade and cause both stable coins to fail. And crypto in general BTC ETH will all collapse... we're already seeing this now with Terra/UST.
Will be epic. A 2 trillion dollar market cap scam over 15 years for Tether.
Get ready for some interesting stuff... and some lousy movies that for sure will be made about the entire stupidity.
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It's the structure of our economy:
1) We've allowed Monopolies to arise again. We have allowed monopolies like 100 years ago to fester and grow in dominance in subsidies and other loop holes. Amazon, Google, Ueber,, FB, Microsoft, etc. all either make money now or don't at all, but are offset by vast amounts of spending power via massive debt and IPO money they're able to garner like a giant cash cow to destroy any competition.
Solution:
Trust busting. And be vigilant about it. Not falling asleep like a bunch of festering fuck tools for 40 fucking years.
2) Taxes on the highest income makers have been skewed; insurmountable amounts of taxes are raised by the poorest via various statistical studies have revealed the bottom 90% have no statistical influence on law or any future laws and policies and regulations.
Solution:
Quit turning the wealthiest corporations and the funneled funds that contribute to the highest income earners into a lending with interest event. The rich have effectively turned their tax bill into a loan program whereby they not only don't pay taxes, they lend and get interest back via deficit spending. When the US and most nations deficit spend, they issue bonds. The vast majority of those bonds are purchased by high income corporations (largely banks) and individuals. They then get interest back on that.
This is obscene.
Solution:
Return corporate income tax to the normal period style of the 1960's. And have alternative minimum income taxes when incomes reach a certain thresh-hold. This helps currently for near infinite deductions that wealthy use, and at some point exhaust such bullshit loop holes and have to by the ATM. This can be done overall on the over arching tax amounts.
3) Tax proportions are unfair in the amount of taxes of disposable income to the various income levels.
Solution:
Provide a tax schedule on capital gains as one gets taxed on payroll income to a certain bracket amount. Making clear to ensure those retirees living on a fixed income of investments $50K or less or joint $80K be taxed at a fair low income.
But raising those brackets for those who essentially make most of their income via dividends and capital gains both long and short at a certain amount... currently it's 0% on the first 40Kish then 15% an then 20%.
Instead treat bracket just above 40K just as you would with payroll income. With many brackets.
4) We haven't addressed various sectors that simply don't function appropriately to the prosperity to all such as healthcare in the US. Healthcare just as fire service and police service is not something that functions responsibly and desirably as competitive market principles as it violates every single competitive market principle in all. Same as we do not allow judiciary to be a competitive market principle. Utilities are the same, natural monopolies.
Solution:
Institute universal healthcare program immediately, preference to model it via the NHS of the UK is preferred, but even the German style is sufficient albeit a bit more expensive and just a bit lesser in quality.
5) Utilizing subsidies of foreign governments that are often despotic/tyrannical dictatorships of some sort that provide a servitude labor source and/or extreme subsidies in input costs. This is similar to the monopoly powers of businesses that can remain bleeding red while a few throw billions at their cash flows to allow them to sell at a loss for years to destroy any competitors (price war) then when all competition is essentially destroyed the prices go up to allow for the monopoly to become in the green on the bottom line; simply no real competition no choice. I literally have bought something from Walmart online and received my Walmart purchased item in an Amazon stupid smiling box. Collusion once was part of anti-trust law. But... plutocrats own this country now... so they don't follow any laws but their own.
Solution: Re-importation quotas and taxes... mostly quotas for utilizing such in-authentic comparative advantages... of serf labor and freebie inputs to effectively allow the company to sell at a loss, and no competition that is viable to develop.
Not doing this is a race to the bottom that will inevitably lead to aggregate demand to fall.
As labor in the home country has to compete with the lower wages, their wages to lower.... aggregate demand therefore falls.
It's more obvious than if you eat shit, you increase your chances of contracting disease that cause you to become ill and potentially die.
Mark imports for those items that have authentic comparative advantage... those non-labor resources you cannot obtain domestically or as abundantly domestically.
6) Extreme loose monetary policy to bail out the essentially bankrupt financial and banking sector has been an extreme mistake. This begs the question, is it moral that we allow the banking system to hold a cartel that overseas our monetary system? Probably not. And over the past decade we can see this is filthy hurting most. All it has done is to cause inflation to inflate the asset prices of whom the rich hold most of the wealth, while a tax that is less affordable by those who hold very little in assets and make very little in wages already, it is a tax on the poor. To the only benefit of a very few rich. There was no reason to bail out any of the financial institutions, they could have just been easily taken over completely by the government... the amount of QE and low interest rate stupidity was a tax and monetization of the debts well passing what would have happened had we done what Iceland had done and just have we the people clear the banking and financial system... it was and still is insolvent. It is simply using the reign of the debt based monetary system to monetize itself for now as if it were solvent. It isn't.
Solution: No more bail outs for banks and financial institutions. Instead such "too big to fail" nonsense corporations will be taken over by the government just as FDIC and SPIC does... the institutions are allowed to fail, the bogus CBO's and other so called collateral that is literally junk, gets re-rated. Certain collateral of assets get remarked recognizing a reckless price pump that has since dumped, because of over leverage pyramid scheming. Homes that were sold well beyond wages and beyond any sense of sanity would be remarked lower on the origination principle amount, and a fixed lower interest rate would be assigned, all prior payments would then reflected in the remaining balance owed. This would have kept people in their homes with mortgages that were capable... as well as assisting developers who are building homes to remain to build homes that statistically are needed... in the financial meltdown of 2008 it wasn't a housing surplus, too few of multi-dwelling and individual homes were being made to the growth of population and the deterioration of older homes. We needed these developers to remain to continue or as we are now risking a supply shortages in homes across the country.
Additionally, a housing program should be instituted similar to Vienna Austria... if it works for them, it would work for us. And don't play games here, if 1+1=2 it fucking works universally. Pretending otherwise is just pathetic.
6) Pandemics are worse than any world war or any civil war or any war for that matter. The necessity to assist the entire population is that of a world war like cause. Otherwise an economy so leveraged to the hilt, or even one not leveraged, will eventually fall into a depression.
And who benefited most from this loose monetary policy as well as stimulus money to keep people from missing rent/mortgages and to allow for basic foods stuffs was largely the very wealthy.
Solutions:
In times of war, many nations including the US seek to ensure inflation from such change in spending doesn't cause inflation including upping taxes on the highest income earners up to even 100% at a certain bracket for just a few years... this limits the deficit spending so it doesn't become absurd into debt trap, as well as keeps inflation from showing up. The rich still make out like bandits as that 100% bracket would be placed on a huge income of $100 million taxable income or perhaps $250 million taxable income on corporations and wealthy alike. Additionally, many other practices to limit inflation and other price gouging was conducted including ration stamps and housing price controls both in terms of house price sales limits and rent limits.
We pretended markets are smart, and not exploitative. Markets are always exploitative when left to their own devises, they plan for nothing, they make no moral bones, it's what they can get a way with, damn be the long term or moral consequences... why do you think slavery, indentured servitude, and feudalism went hand and hand for so long under a largely capitalistic regime that started in the 1400's?
7) Politics that leave 95% of the income makers with statistically no influence over law.
Solution:
End gerrymandering... a statistical mechanism for setting districts must be made that is indifferent to set out districts.
Set term limits for all elected officials.
Ban on all elected officials to serve of 10 to 20 years in certain sectors they have regulated either by election winning or by appointment, and no compensation in that sector maybe received indirectly by these sectors during this period, nor stemming in waiting for this period to end.
Ban all elected and appointed persons from engaging in speculative trades on assets particularly stock, options, warrants, bonds, etc. That all investments they may have be carried out under a blind trust during their time in appointment and certain few years after their service.
These are just a few things we can do. And really, many of these things the US has done over a period of time.
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Great. You just explained even further why insurance, at least this private insurance, isn't effective and is actually obsolete.
Maybe our tax dollars should be insuring our selves for these horrid events, even an individual random house fire?
And maybe we pay for it adjusted for what we own appraised value?
I mean, most of the time a state declares an emergency and if the state and/or Federal government lends aid, those transfer dollars typically don't go directly to the people to recover, but rather they backstop the insurance companies to ensure those who purchased insurance actually get their claims paid.
It's sort of a can't lose scam with insurance.
Same thing happens with medical and disability insurance.
If it becomes long term to where the person can get on SSI or Medicaid, anything the insurance company paid out during the back payment SSI and/or Medicaid grants, is recovered by the insurance company, turning them into just a fronting the cash sort of company; they never actually draw down reserves those claims.
So cut out the middle man.
Which is obviously ineffective.
It's why nations developed fire services or fire departments instead of offering "fire insurance" policies, that were hysterically funny episodes in London's great fires, or even small fires, when customers of various fire service insurance accidently went to the wrong fire house company, or the proof of purchase was left in the house being burned, thus couldn't produce proof of coverage thus no fire fighters to help put out he fire.
Private insurance is basically a scam.
At the fairest, it's obsolete bullshit.
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Let's face it, even if they have insurance, the reserve these insurance have are insufficient to pay everyone anyways.
Same thing happens in hurricane disaster areas and other mass disasters.
Insurance is largely a scam.
You are funny market distortion garbage nonsense just ignores the fact insurance is obsolete; they all distort magical notions of magical equilibrium or sufficient reserves to make the scam seem solvent in the event of mass claims.
Anyway, most of the time, like 99 percent of the time a mass disaster area is declared and mass damage has happened, the tens of billions or hundreds of billions that is authorized by the Federal government and maybe some of that from the state government typically is transfers directly to the insurance companies so that those who have insurance get some sort of payment for their claim.
Similar to long term or short term disability and extended healthcare.
Payments and insurance costs are recouped by the insurance company once the person is pushed onto SSI and Medicaid, they will be provided back payment from when they qualified, and all that back payment goes to the insurance company for paying out all that period and time, and those government programs take over afterwards.
So all the insurance company was, was just a credit card fronting the money in advance. Very little to no draws on reserves.
A nice little scam.
Truly, private insurance is an obsolete model for all sectors.
Even the small stuff that can be "convenient" for some to take out such as 1 or 2 year policy on damaged cell phones; of course your claim will be met via a preowned device refurbished and sometimes a "like" model; and it may accompany some sort of deductible $50 to $200 or more depending on the value of the original phone. At which point it's probably worth just buying a new one for nearly the same price.
I mean, even the small "cheap" "convenient" insurance is largely a scam.
And you have to talk about "market distortions" to make your lazy fair ferry story sound reasonable.
Dude, insurance and banking act as a market distorting device, everything we do in markets distorts markets, and the put and the call that is insurance or borrowing always distorts markets.
There are no magical equilibrium the price is right figure.
Everyone is just trying to get something for nothing.
And that's all that market freedom mumbo jumbo is all about.
Get serious. The inevitable payer of most claims and particularly during disasters is ourselves collectively via our tax dollars. So maybe our tax money we pay should cover this stuff, it does anyway, and that's after we also paid a private insurance company so they can make huge profits.
I think if we hadn't had fire departments, and still had the old 19th century and prior multiple fire service company scam, you would be defending that BS by stating how you could make multiple copies of your proof of purchase and do drills on finding your particular company's firehouse... and bla bla bla!
LOL!
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Yeah... lot of this is wishful thinking of peasants wanting to be rich.
This entire stuff smacks at Fiddler on the Roof.
"Posing problems that would cross a rabbi's eyes!
And it won't make one bit of difference if i answer right or wrong.
When you're rich, they think you really know!"
Reality, many of the new rich struck it in one of their multiple hustles.
And they tend to lose that fortune just as quick.
They're snakes and ready to push anyone they can under the bus. They seek feedback to know if they can trust you, and also how to get under your skin, or to get you vulnerable.
Ummm everyone makes to do lists.
Ummmm take a fucking peak at hours worked for an American. I work primary job 48 hours a week min... I have side hustle IT thing which is about 10 to 20 more hours. And I do various other side jobs.
Most Americans are forced overtime 12 hour shifts... very small vacations a year... 1 to 2 weeks.
But you know... rich people learn how to perform magical farts and do mysterious "good for you granny smith" things... why?
They're rich! They have to be doing something magical and amazing.
No. Just be healthy. And you might get the lotto of a hustle or two that could make you some serious money.
But don't count on it.
You should do good things like not waste time on carnival shows on tv (get rid of tv, it's a complete waste), eat healthy so you're not screwed up in your elder years or least likely to be and can enjoy life until the end regardless of how much money you got, keep learning and doing things that are enjoyable to you while not destructive to yourself.
And lotto tickets..... those a buck or two A YEAR is okay... more than that is absolutely stupid. Tax on poor people is all these lottery shits are. Instead, you should throw money at a stock. Gamble there. Slap a cash secured put, or purchase 100 shares of some decent cheap enough company to do so, and sell a covered call against it... limit your risk further, use some of the premium you made on selling the covered call to buy a put to collar the trade.
But let's not do lottos or slots or casino table games... tax on the poor. Just as monetary policy that pushes inflation is a tax on the poor and give away socialism for the rich.
One should do these things not to get rich... because that's unlikely and you'll just get burned out... or worse and turn into a sociopath... like Elizabeth Holmes... commit some fraud lose it all and go to prison... or sure you make it big, but you made enemies with some serious evil cartel members and you're sleeping with the fishes before you know it.
Or you're just a horrible human being that everyone celebrates when you have a stroke in your palace shitting yourself and your servants force you to eat soup they all had a turn pissing in.
Be a good person. Live healthy. Work as hard as you like. And find healthy positive hobbies.
Like making stupid ass long comments on youtube...
You can skip that one...
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That's simply not true that stocks tend to go up since the 400 years of stock market history throughout history in multiple nations.
It's an outlier that US stocks have for the past 40 years gone up.
That's the outlier.
1989 Japan market... if you had invested in 1929 stocks at their highs those investments would still be in the negatives.
Rotation of investments for long term capture stupid high markets and avoid a 1989 style losses even after 30 years.
So many will be ruined by the outlier period of the past 40 years acting as if this was normal.
It was absolutely not normal. It was combination of huge interest rate hikes that continued to decline to 0% or even negative as we observe today.
And this was fueled by a sort of race to the bottom infinite supply of labor somewhere and some labor is tyrannized to the point they must do the work, a new type of serfdom or even slave system.
Ask the Brits how this ended. Or the Dutch. Or any nation for that matter.
Even long term investing should have price targets to lock in profits reduce exposure. And allow buying at obvious potential sell of periods... we're a that cross roads.
I mean even the super rich, more interested in wealth preservation than growth, practice this.
Telling the peasant class who have a few chips in the market and likely invested near the tops to stay there is in itself a scam feeding into bag holder pyramid schemes.
The peasant class, essentially most people who have to work to earn money, are the most likely in distressed times, recessions, forced to sell shares to pay for the basics of life.
It's not if I feel like or think I should sell... it becomes I must sell because I lost my job, still making beans on any jobs I have gotten thus far, my savings is depleted, and now I have an emergency this or that... in the US paramount with no universal healthcare, but also no real decent housing system or any sound structural system until you're at retirement and even that has many lining up at food banks and even shelters.
I think this mantra just leave it in the market is dangerous. And people propounding it are dangerously wrong, some to the point of knowing their full of shit, and need bag holders to buy at the top so they themselves can exit at the top.
So many in all these crashes wiped out millions of peoples 401K in the US... the boomers had the solace that they had many of them had defined pension plans to fall back upon. It often happens at the worst of times too either nearing retirement age, recession where you'll need extra income, or emergency periods with unexpected losses property or health.
This time around, defined pensions are nearly a thing of the past in the US. As crumbling country that looks worse off than the former Soviet states when they were falling apart... they had old soviet houses and apartments to live in with electricity, running water and sewage... Americans are now resorting to living in tents and RV's... RV lots are now being built and upon opening day they reach max occupancy. Tent cities continue to spring up all over in small towns to large cities.
The forecast of the economies of the world demonstrate what 40 year stock market boom means... it means it pulled forward all the gains and put it in those moments.
A race to the bottom wage system has come to fruition.
Just as the soviet style tyrannical governance came to its fruition.
Problem has always been the mixing of government type with economics. You can have a capitalistic system with a democracy or a dictatorship. We conflated communism with despotism or dictatorship, which wasn't entirely true in some of those communistic countries... but largely was.
The reality suggests we need a mix capital-social system. Otherwise boom bust disasters that give rise to tyrannical dictators will constantly occur.
I mean where did the soviet system that we all think as scary monsters under our beds come from?
The failure of robber baron gangster late stage capitalism.
Where did capitalism come from?
Late stage mercantilism that favored a nobility elite and included a mercantile elite and banker elite under a monarchy.
Where did mercantilism come from?
Late stage feudalism that favored only nobility and royalty elite.
Where did feudalism come from?
Late stage slave labor that favored an extreme few master class who could not defend against large insurrection and rebellion from a population mostly of slaves, who would often team up with very poor free peoples.
Theme in this situation is that the systems is that the few who benefited outweighed the benefit of the majority.
And that is what we're observing now.
So to put your beans in the stocks and not at least monitor for excesses... is fucking stupid.
When we approach all time highs and it is likely prognostic we enter into a recession, it is only wise to follow the "smart" really the big money out the door before you're left holding bags.
Take profits. You can leave 25% or 10% for gamble sake to suck the potential 3% more before the ultimate dumpster dive.
Just keep in mind, even if we go up another 10% now... and it is followed by a 50% or more correction... you bough more stocks at that higher 10% level... you did your self no service buying in at those higher and higher levels... your realized absolutely no profits whatsoever. You are a bag holder.
You would be better off selling foregoing that 10% more it pumps, hold cash equiv, then it dumps 30% or 50% or 60% or 80%... and start dollar cost averaging back in.
That's what the wealthy do with a substantial amount of their fortune... they're not so eager for growth as they are for preservation of their wealth. As it only takes a small part of their fortune to gamble to potentially grow their wealth a bit more during lows in the market... ie a recession.
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Why in this country we do the stupidest of things?
A) we don't have a universal healthcare, and what we do have is a medicare and medicaid for those severely disabled and for elderly, and of that program, we don't have direct cost controls ensuring various medicines, medical appliances, clinic and hospitals and other care facilities prices and procedures have a known cost and profit margin and thus a fair balanced price point, that every other developed and many developing and/or poorer countries do just fine. Instead we have insurance companies, the very same companies that often hold a large stake in various companies that produce and thus sell the various medicines, healthcare facilities, etc. to "negotiate" prices.
B) We don't have an organized transportation model that would allow for various high speed or regular rail or any other mass transit.
C) We don't have a robust housing program unit that ensures supply of housing remains robust thereby rents and housing prices remain affordable to the median income earners; thus not only do we have millions of homeless adults, but also millions of homeless children. RV spots have been filling up with people living in cars or RV's since mid 2010's.
D) We don't have an unbiased central bank, but rather a private cartel collusion bank thing filled with unelected by citizens nor representatives by the citizens, but instead filled with bankers voted by the big banks. I mean we have private banks regulating themselves... what could go wrong? I don't know? QE? Monetize the bank debts?
E) We don't have rules on campaign financing thus bribery runs-amuck as oligarchs are able to bribe anyone with a pulse to be their puppet... some of the most hideous sometimes biggest criminal cons are put into office.
F) We don't have unbiased methodology of forming voting districts rather we literally allow the various current representatives/politicians draw up their own districts, and we wonder why they carve up districts that look like spaghetti as they pick the areas where their voters are located and avoid adding areas they know they are unlikely or simply won't get votes.. thus picking their voters rather than the voters picking the representation; no rules gerrymandering. Rather we have methodology that induces gerrymandering.
G) We have term limits for the President of the United States, yet we lack the same for Senators and Representatives nor for the US Supreme Court.
H) And this idiocy of having a "debt ceiling" even though the constitution explicitly states "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned." Allowing legislation to double talk, say one thing as to procure law that requires spending, while at the same time, not paying those bills that congress legal required to become law on the spending. No other country has such a ridiculous law. Or their own treasury bills would be worth less than Argentina's or other unstable country's as well as command a very relative high interest rate for the higher risk of default.
Many other things this nation does that is back ass backwards such as the way primary education is funded at just the local levels and within the local levels thereby inherently making schools of poorer areas have less funds for the same primary education than wealthier neighborhoods; you have some schools having swimming pools and vast arenas and gyms and stadiums, auto shops to architecture studios and deals with local and regional and state colleges that provide college credits during high school, while other schools can't afford just a basic basket ball gym, basic classroom stuffs funding chemistry classes, geology classes, computer labs, etc. Forget about arenas, and swimming pools,
It's as if this country is doing everything it can to pill off its so called super power status (the wealth and productivity capacity it acquired being among the largest nations to be productive status with minimal damage after the ending of World War II), or rather its just trying to pill off its status of being a functioning country, so it can become yet another failed nation or one that hardly exists as a country at all; but as a clamorous concoction of various oligarchs like old feudal lords of old braying on the various media outfits they've bought up or made propounding to the peasantry how they should best they should serve their "job creators" their oligarchs, their feudal lords in all but name.
It's really ridiculous. For the vast majority who live thru life right now, the economy is quickly becoming similar to that of Russia and many former Soviet States... with homelessness and decay of various infrastructure. The violence is already more pungent with mass murders every month and smaller murders occurring almost every day somewhere in the country.
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Friedman is a con. Feigns markets all by themselves without any or few rules just magically work. When all markets are, are a set of agreed rules based on political interests.
He hides the political and psychological intent of people which is all over the place and includes things he likes to leave out like resentment, buyers remorse or changing of the mind, etc.
Hiding the political sociological psychological nature of economics makes economics he thinks of sound more physical and unchanging; as if there is some economic physical law of nature when there is absolutely not the case at all.
Additionally, as importantly he forgoes the competitive market principle concept as much as possible. A sound logical method to discern what rules should be in place for each sector and industry and their services; ignoring non-competitive actions that markets tend to create such as monopolies or the perfectly inelastic demand curve sectors like healthcare or economy of scale issues such as the case for utilities and services and infrastructure that actually provide lowest possible costs and highest possible quality of service functioning as a monopoly: think utilities like power, gas, sewer, water works, internet/telecom, etc.
Instead he just pretend some magical force of nature created economics and the answer is let markets just do anything without limitation just let pricing and the subsequent supply and demand work itself out. That markets magical fix any problems... they do. It's called a market collapse that often ends in all sorts of misery sometimes depressions, sometimes civil war, and other war... he calls this market correcting itself.
Its sort of like an engineer designing a rocket and first one out we just assume will be just fine, no testing, no other feedback, no other insights from others, just load that up with passengers and cargo and let it rip... if it blows up... cargo and passengers are toast... but the rocket is in self correction mode, as a new one hopefully will work... if not, don't worry, yes more passengers and cargo are toast, but the next one, or some others will eventually lift off safely or mostly safely.
He dislikes any planning outside prices as a way for markets to regulate themselves. Which is absurd. Hence Friedman is mostly crackpot. Doesn't help that his in Memory of Alfred Nobel prize (was Nobel never wanted Economics to be among honors for his original Nobel Prizes because he knew economics is always a social political study, not a physical science and did not want to propound a dogma of any kind by endorsing any political ie economic manifesto), but of that prize he won back in the 1970's, was about price action, his data was phony. And his equations to his claims was faulty, and had to be corrected. But even his data was wrong. So he really didn't deserve such a prize at all. He was fraud there too. Several members of the Nobel Committee still today wanted to reverse the award; but of course that's too embarrassing an ordeal given that the King of Sweden himself presents the award to the winner and reflects upon the country of Sweden. And the actual Nobel Prize awards for the physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature and peace; no award may be revoked. So the add on of memorial prize in economic sciences was added in 1968, how odd the first winner would be a crack pot advocating for essentially plutocratic oligarchy, as let i t be markets, means the ones with most wealth will make the market rules, would be among the first winners of what is not really a science, but a philosophy; one that is political social study in psychology; again NOT a physical science; there is no natural law of economics. Just as there is no natural physical in art appreciation music, dance, government/politics, men's or women's designer clothing and apparel.
I'm sure the idea is to make economics sound like a hard physical science with immutable phenomena, so that people don't realize it's just a human made up construct; and thus open to reasonable discord on making up rules that maybe necessary for better functioning for everyone involved.
Economically, you don't want to allow monopolies or oligopolies to form due to violations of competitive market principles. Price wars and subsidies from different countries can reduce artificially competitors until monopoly or near monopoly is achieved, and jack prices up to regain previous losses and maximize profits. In terms of foreign economics, political advantages can be used to short supply countries; the security issue you're mentioning.
Milton Friedman likes/liked to use half truths when grifting is BS. The last part of his statement; any nation selling directly or indirectly (thru a private company who receives a state subsidy) is not necessarily doing the other buying country any favors. It's anything but aid. Particularly in the long run, and if done with no mitigation such as quota limits or tariff or as a temporary allowance; as price war effects will ruin any non-subsidized same business in either country.
And of course, doesn't help to mark the resentment on both sides of each nation develops among the labor. Just as colonialism created massive resentments among the aristocrats to the labor and the enslaved labor of the various colonies and to the mother countries of those colonies.
What sucks about Friedman is that some portions of what he says is fairly decent economic philosophy, it's just that he abandons the competitive market principle concepts and other more complicated matters, and propounds his own conjectured dogma of let markets do whatever for the most part and they'll behave the best and provide the best possible way; no planning at all... which is always funny because economics literally means in Greek "household management".
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This is when nations need to realize allowing banks to run-a-muck and monetize their own insolvent debt should end.
Theses swindlers have sucked the economic system to death. There are ways to end this stupidity... rules need to be reinstated to end the leverage stupidity that has caused home prices around the world to skyrocket. It's a leverage bubble akin to the stupidity leverage of stable coins in the goof ball shit show we call crypto... worthless trash based on torrent files with ability to modify or append the file (add to the file) not just share it, tech that is over 20 years old... "block chain" not new. And it's mostly useless due to higher broadband speeds and larger hard drive space.
A nation with a busted fiasco leverage scammed asset prices be it stocks or real-estate... particularly real-estate, or other large purchase items... the bank can be nationalized... if we're going to monetize the system rather than inflating the money supply we can all cope with allowing a necessary de-leveraging and deflating asset prices, by allowing the prices to fall and remarking principle debt to market, and acting as all payments went toward that new principle amount... then refinancing it at a FIXED rate... not a variable rate at any time this type of chicanery smacks as usury in the highest... particularly if the banks are granting higher and higher principle mortgages or other loans like auto loans pumping the underlying collateral, but it's only pumped due to the debt creating a domino or house of cards effect.
These elevated home prices have not provided society with enough homes, nor helped with home affordability with the fewer homes being built. It's only constrained markets, making it more expensive and risky for private developers to build more supply with higher and higher property prices as well as other inflation factors such as building material to skyrocket too.
Privatization of utilities pushes all costs on the developer. Instead of on taxable collective trustees (imagine our taxes actually paying for things we absolutely need like sewer, trash, water, electricity, heating, etc. Well it did until these "wizards" in the banking sector discovered ways to make a killing off of scamming and using the game Monopoly to idiotic levels, a pyramid and ponzi scheme that brunts its busts via monetization of the debt the banks made huge stupidity levels of money from. While resulting in fewer homes, worse built homes, un-affordable homes, and inflation that causes material to build and land for the purpose of residential development skyrocket.
Hurting the lowest incomes, essentially all income levels, even some of the big boys last holding the bags.
The entire world banking system is bust. Never allow bankers in charge of currency or money supply, bank sector goal is to sell as much debt as possible at the highest profitable proportion: Low interest rates, look to payment affordability and just jack the asset/collateral price up granting higher and higher loan amounts resulting in higher and higher housing prices... bigger principle mortgage at lower interest rate is equal to lower home mortgage principle amount in a higher interest rate environment... one way or another they'll skin the system dry.
And quite literally, this happens over and over... and this lowering of interest rates also encourage reckless investing causing all forms of debt to be "cheap" and creating nowhere else to saving let alone invest, so we have stampedes into risk and high risk assets like high risk stocks or garbage bonds. Further pushing up over leverage asset prices, creating massive bubbles that will go bust.
This insanity has to end in a new system.
Regardless, history has demonstrated whether we learn from this idiocy once and for all or not, it will end in its own bubble gone bust.
Monetary policy should be via non-banking entities and prohibition going forward for their employment in banks as well as the goal of monetary policy should simply be to keep currency stable, to avoid inflation as well as deflation. That's it.
Stimulus can and should only occur via planning, government transfers... using tax funds and at times government deficit spending on creating infrastructure, funding basic need goods like providing a public housing developer entities to compete with private developers to ensure affordable and quality homes are produced that meet the needs of the population. Going for education and healthcare and police services and fire services and natural monopoly services that include water, sewer, trash, recycling, internet communications, distribution of heating commodities, etc.
As well as plans to assist private development of various goods producing: specific farming, materials refinement, subassembly production, final assembly plants, etc. etc.
Monetary policy strictly to keep inflation and deflation away.
Keynesian policy acting on both supply and demand curves as forms of stimulant to assist in meeting demand and creating demand.
I mean after WWII, the record shows that this lesson should have already been learned. I know it pushes oligarchs down a bit, but these parasites deserve to be pushed out of existence anyway.
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Prior to the big push in home prices from the pandemic, people who worked as temps and not that much money $30K to $40K household (usually two income earners) were being approved loans of cap $200K to $250K just in the Boise area... I know only because some who were are now still unable to use that pre-approval because homes are now from $300K to $500K (for smaller 1,100 to 1,400 sq ft homes). These homes for the past 20 years typically were priced in at about $100K to $160K, the top 160K price was rejected in 2008 and fell to about $130K to 140K before going back up surpassing $180K and then quickly climbing to $200K... now at their very bloated figures of $300-$500K prices as cash offers keep coming in from various people selling from a more expensive market to this one as well as the constant purchasing of various REITs and other firms either to flip or rent out these homes. My understanding, some of REITs have actually tapered their purchases, and some have sold homes during this melt up in housing prices. But there are still enough other investment firms that act like REITs with lots of money behind them that persist in these higher prices (gotta have a buyer to reach these all time figures)... how leveraged those investment firms are, I'm not sure.
REITs themselves tend to be very liquid, getting much of their funds not from borrowing, but from IPO and other stocks offerings they never have to repay. But some have floated junk bonds and borrowed; there some leverage there... hence their discontinuing for purchases and some have sold a few units currently.
The retail buyer who actually lives in it, are moving to other places of typically lower price range, but they quickly forget the wages of that area are low commensurate to the price of rent and homes.
Similar happened in the Boise area during 2004-2008... lots of various people moving here only to buy and realize they just bought way too high to the wages they were going to get and had affordability problems; many ended up selling as they also then lost their newly acquired low wage job. Making affordability a little more troublesome. And the homes subsequently went into foreclosure.
Similar is happening again.
Lots of people from California, New Jersey, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, etc. moving here lamenting about the wages/salaries are too low and that they think they made a mistake buying above the asking price, they thought a cool $288K or $380K to quickly grab the home was such a steal at the time. But they had to take out mortgage to do that, call it a cash offer because they $200K in cash, and borrowed a cash advance secured by a future mortgage to go beyond the asking price. Their two incomes or household incomes though now is only $40K to $60K compared to their $75K to $120K or in some instances much more depending on their profession.
Those able to maintain at the moment work from home jobs, have bought larger and even more expensive homes, but on the same boat. The problem becomes the constant nagging of employers which can eventually turn into an ultimatum to move closer to the office or find some other work. My brothers in that lot in eastern Idaho, but on the reverse end, the company let go all of its offices here in Idaho, and moved elsewhere AZ and MN, he was able to maintain his job by working at home thus far remaining in Idaho. But there's that constant nag and threat that he must move to St Paul MN at some point. Particularly as his entire team is in that location. COVID bought him some more time to stay here for a while.
Similar with many others moving in from elsewhere.
The work from home gig has been alive for a long time, problem is that it's always very sketch:
1) They know you're less effective at managing others and projects. Particularly if you workers are all living and working and routinely meeting at location, and you're not.
2) They know you're not able to very quickly handle emergencies that require on sight maintenance and work.
3) They already have on sight people they can have fill your role at any time.
4) You're identifying yourself as expendable... can work from home, when most meet in the various necessary locations so how necessity and/or productive is this position really? Putting yourself right in the cross hairs of any cost cutting measures during periods of poor earnings.
And this also means even if your position has a point, they might consolidate it to an on sight person's responsibilities.
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Crypto nothing but a big scam!
I explored the wonderful world of crypto back in Feb 2021. Traded some BTC and other altcoins... Feb my first crypto purchase was Doge for 5 cents a stupid thing... and BTC thru in a few hundred real money USD. And then traded it with a few thousand more real money and other altcoins... BTC traded back and forth made decent realized real money gains... I think near end of May was my last big BTC trade. Figured it would crash for whatever technical reason... and it did... first part of June it dipped I bought some for a quick day trade and flipped it for real money USD.
Then was busy learning about gamma squeezes as I traded AMC LOL! 2021 was the Wood Stock for capitalism.
All that summer other than trading meme stocks like AMC and some others... sold lots of CS puts way out of the money making premiums, I explored the hinter lands of what was really behind crypto. By the time June rolled around, I had many tools on trading crypto from various platforms... and was shocked by the amount of liquidity tens of billions of dollars trading every 24 hours.
Various platforms even show the "futures" like market for BTC like Bybit, BitMex, Binance, Derbit, etc. that allow you to 100x (yes 100x) positions long or short. And you can see open interest on this one platform to see when various size orders are opening long or short.
Also read all about Tether involving creator of Inspector Gadget cartoon, Mighty Duck's child actor and busted with a friend guilty of Pedophilia in Spain, the CEO a convict of pirated MSFT programs, and a shady lawyer spokesperson who was involved with a defunct busted online gambling site that was found guilty of cheating customers,, Gemini with the Twinkle Toes twins, Terra Luna ponzi, Celsius stupidity, ADA or Cardono nut cake, and the fact that all these casinos all engage in a form of wash trading to present volume being traded to give the illusion of liquidity... problem becomes, when people really are trading in and out of this during their wash trades, they lose over time lots of real money USD and even crypto as withdrawals or selling happens.
Then learned about all the pyramid schemes gone Ponzi with staking and the like earning huge rates of return. FTX with poodle hair guy Sam "bankrupt fried" who I never heard of until about late summer or fall period... as lots of youtubers were using him as a sponsor.
With all the weirdness behind the scenes I realized this was a cluster mug of a type of pyramid/Ponzi scam leveraged to the hilt. I just assumed since the two crypto exchanges I used Coinbase and Bittrex were licensed in my state, that they also had FDIC or rather SIPC like any broker would. So I went to both their websites... neither really explicitly stated they're not FDIC or SIPC... Coinbase was the worst, they instead had a paragraph on how the banks they do banking with have FDIC... giving you the illusion that your funds are therefore also FDIC insured.
At least Bittrex stated while they weren't FDIC nor SIPC insured, that they had taken out a $300 million dollar insurance policy in case of hacks or other losses of customer funny money crypto or real money.
Either way, at this time I had accumulated quite a bit of real money USD sitting on the sidelines... so I decided... gonna take that back to my bank and real SIPC brokers.
Then went on to warn folks on youtube of this gigantic cluster mug of scams that is crypto... entire thing is a fraud... not just one fraud.... but a bunch of clusters of frauds... some indirectly and/or directly work together in their stupidity. And that sure... you can trade this stuff, short or long... making any real gains in real money USD or other national currency... good luck taking withdrawals.
I was really pissed of the SEC hadn't stepped in sooner to halt all this crap. Much of it is very much a security that's being offered... staking is a form of a security ... or worse a certificate of deposit ie a bank.
Gary Gensler really should be sacked and investigated with any potential collusion or cover up with many of these characters that continue still to push their unregistered essentially fraudulent junk. The collapse has only started.
Had this happened in the early 2000's or 90's, or earlier... regulators would have shut this shit down way way earlier to prevent millions from being defrauded.
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@bitteroldman701 The hustle to unwind billions or even hundreds of millions of dollars worth of something requires enough liquidity (suckers) to pay near or top dollar to get those paper gains and turn them into real money sitting in several bank accounts and CD ladders to live off for the rest of their life.
Basically, the big money that has most of their wealth in solid cash and other things like CD's and treasuries of various developed nations, and a relative small stock and other risky junk, you don't see them conning anyone nor running any businesses just living off the dividends and interest and occasionally rotating from one sector to another in the dreaded idiotic "business" cycle ie. when the central banks or cartel banks start to hike or ease interest rates and as the entire system becomes futile, the new invention implemented first by Japan: QE ie. monetize bank debt.
The hucksters that have to be out and front, generally are paper rich, but cash poor. Some cons yet to be called out include Musk, for example... needs to keep coming up with one scam after another they hype his shit, get something to stick... Boring company... nope, Space X... well that one was saved strictly by us tax payers getting lots of governmental contracts and subsidies, Neuralink nope just plagiarized scientific research done in 2003 in 2021, Open AI can't even do what individuals competing in the VEX Robotics Competition a decade ago in 2022, Zip2 a cheese web page provider was sold to Compaq for over 300 million in 1999 and that portion defunct by 2013. Buying and promoting Tesla like there was no tomorrow and later combining insolvent Solar City from his cousin and recent court action against him involving that debacle having an actual product like an electric car he's pumped all that fomo an idiocy that he was able to achieve a car maker that sells a tiny fraction of vehicles to be valued at the sum of all major car manufactures combined plus 500 billion. And has he been cashing out like crazy or what? Of course, one of his hustle to make it look like he wasn't was staking some shares going on a Twitter escapade purchase... which is likely a knee jerk reaction of some sort in some way to give an excuse to sell more Tesla shares after each time he states he's done selling (needs those share prices to take his real billion dollars selling to suckers even half from the top). Of course, he's not that smart as his hustle would make one believe and sort of screwed himself into entering into a binding agreement to buy the money losing Twitter stupidity way over priced... but doesn't matter because he's already pocketed several billions in cash with Tesla share sales prior to staking many more for the purchase of Twitter.
Basically, these scammers have to work for their hustle... to turn it from paper wealth to real wealth... watch and see Musk, if successful at getting all the cash he wants, to sort of go silent for a while... if he can IPO Twitter again, that'll be his great escape into retirement, and you certainly will never hear from him on his own self advertisements ever again..
If Twitter ends up being a mistake too many, he could lose a significant chunk of his fortune, thus motivating him to man the clown car and hustle hustle hustle til the day he drops dead.
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