Comments by "" (@jmitterii2) on "Bravos Research"
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It's cocaine starvation... liquidity crisis.
And the fact most recent pumps were option trading mechanical manipulation. Buying calls week to expiration that type of pump and dump all summer long with meme stocks. I know I'm in one right now... and it was only one of the few silly chickens up... sold a covered call that expired today on that one.
And my put SPY printed... sold it.... we'll buy more as we pop to resistant areas on a longer expiration than the March 18th.
DXY going up then dumping, and TNX going up now slumping with TLT that was dumping now pumping.
TNX or TLT or both going up is bad for equities in a short period of time and longer period of time means risk off movements.
DXY going up with TNX going up that's bearish.
And VIX that was going up along with the SPY and QQQ for a while was demonstrating the fragility of the market.
Softbank did this option manipulation last year, literally buying same week expiring 70K or more contracts ATM or near the money contracts, then same day dumping them leaving open interest at about 9K or less... this causes IV to pump on these call options making do overs next week less and less rewarding sometimes not rewarding at all. Market makers may hold for a day or week the shares they bought to cover their delta requirements in the gamma squeeze... but recently they've just dump them end of day after the entity that's been quickly flipping calls for quick gains.
Pump and dump scam.
So you mix this together and that we're at ATH.
THEN you realize the China situation is horrible with developers unable to pay bonds.
Their phony ADR stocks that aren't really equity in the actual companies in mainland China dumping.
Power outage due to lack of coal and destroyed dam power plants due to weather.
Then you have the COVID mess happening in China too, but now also in Europe with new lockdowns in some German provinces.
THEN you have SPY and QQQ and DIA at all time highs.... in a fragile MACD and many bearish divergence.
Fed presidents floating the idea that interest rates might rise quickly from 0% to 3% and that there maybe up to 2 to 3 rate hikes next year.
Stupid evaluations such as TSLA worth more the entire auto industry combined... stupidity WTF evaluation.
There has yet to be a visit to the daily 200 moving average over a year, only very few years this has ever happened.
Consumer confidence rate falling in August that was signify always within 18 months a recession... with additional months of falling consumer confidence in the toilet 60 region.
Housing market gone insane and now falling apart... revelation of Z and others of their ilk using faulty algos to snap up dumpster properties for stupid rates sight unseen.
The 30% crash similar to all other crashes of over evaluated nonsense falling extremes from their highs, the crash that's already happened and you don't even know it phenomena the high fliers don't all dumpster dive all at once... rather the first 30% get picked off over the course of a year or so... than the remaining 70% high fliers like a giant iceberg as Jeremy Grantham calls it, falls into the sea, as they too roll over.
You have so many confluence of an 8% to 15% correction.... and if you're into looking at past topping formations, probably a wave 4 correction (8% to 15% correction) then a blunder bust back to test ATHs possibly surpassing them before the final topping patterns that results into an ABC super cycle thunder buster downtrend and beginning of a bear market.
The confluences are stunning.
It's not just one event, but a confluences of indicators and events that are driving this topping process.
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@cicatrace Problem we face though is that other currencies is what DXY is measuring. Not the DXY itself.
It's not optimism on the DXY that makes the DXY high right now.
The run up on the DXY is that so many other currencies are in the dumpster compared to USD.
And the big issue here is lots of debt privately issued thanks to all National Banks or their equiv like our Fed Reserve, were too dovish. And this has caused massive inflation.
As well as reckless debt binge. Decade long debt binge for the 2010's were China, Turkey, Australia, and even the US and large portions of Europe.
The debt binge in China and Turkey both are coming to roost.
This is causing a huge demand for dollars as much of the debts are US denominated.
This increase in money supply is via issuance of more and more USD debt. China and Turkey and several other places were big debtors, it's who took out the debt to run up the money supply.
They're in default and having problems rolling over their debt load. This is causing debt/money supply to go down. Hence the run on the DXY right now.
There's not enough stable money to pay off the unstable debt chain.
So the thesis could be wrong should we see further contagion from another debt collapse.
Which I think is likely. We're already observing this in China and Turkey. This will possibly spread to Australia very soon. Australia will be a bell weather on whether this goes further into US and Europe.
Because so much of this debt is denominated in USD, this debt destruction zaps money supply out of the system.
USD is a debt based monetary system, it only expands money supply so long as debt is increasing and being repaid. People are taking out debts and juggling if not repaying such debts.
The juggling act seems to be faltering in Turkey and China at present. Hence the DXY.
To raise fresh USD to pay off creditors and for creditors who have obligations to pay their creditors, they all raise USD via selling assets like stocks, real-estate, and anything including the kitchen sink.
We're in a liquidity crisis. And the tightening of the Fed and other banks to combat inflation will make that debt juggling act even harder to roll over debt. And more defaults will beget more defaults.
And we may still have price rejections causing as softening of demand. Causing even more fragile money losing companies or even money making companies to cut back, making consumer debt unstable... individuals have to sell assets to pay off debts, as well as defaults... again Peter to pay Paul domino money supply go poof after it went burrr on the debt binge.
Not sure if we'll get another China and Turkey and several other nations to support new debt juggling.
Brazil and many other areas do not seem poised to be debtors of last resort.
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But 2000 tech bubble interest rates were still falling from the 70's and 80's.
As a kid opening a savings account at a credit union, I saw first hand the interest rates were 7% then a quick dip in 3% then up to 5% then a dip to 4% then a quick spike to 6% by 1999.
Interest rates were all over the place in the 90's.
But since 1980 when interest rates hit 20%, essentially busting the economy to pieces, it's been a slow accommodating to load up on more debt or to refinance old debt to lower and lower rates ever since.... a big massive debt inducing binge fest that induced more and more borrowing and buying and thus bidding up of assets prices ever since.
Inflation itself is the price of ALL goods going up.
Between purposefully destroying the economy about the 80's with hyper interest rates to combat the stagflation of the ending 70's, is that it pushed that inflationary pressure (price rising across ALL goods and services) to be diverted into asset items like stocks, real-estate, commodities, etc.
Globalization assisted in the same asset bubble, the filthy masses now competing with essentially destitute sweatshop workers aren't able to buy near as much and they're soon tapping out their credit lines even with lowering and lowering interest rates, put money into assets like real-estate and equities, and junk bonds, commodities, etc.
Was a giant asset bubble up. Which can cause the cost of living to increase.
Cost of living prices can be and are often worse than inflation:
Even early or pre-industrial times, you only needed so many chairs, tables, shirts, clothes, only so much coffee or tea or food... but everyone needs shelter, energy, healthcare/medicines, etc.
Make basics like housing, education, or medical go up, and nothing else matters. In fact, food and small or large durable goods can be deflationary.
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