Comments by "" (@jmitterii2) on "Stoic Finance"
channel.
-
2
-
2
-
That's why asset prices are so high... money printer go bur is debt binge go burr.
The idea of debt based money supply is that too much debt aka money into the system there's a string attached, they can pull the string to pull money/debt binging out of the system via increasing interest rates. Both lenders and borrowers tend to lend and borrow less as its more expensive and risky. And those sitting on cash free and clear of debt they owe, tend to save the money in cash, savings accounts as interest rates are better or other safer interest rate earning instruments like I-Series savings bonds which are essentially risk free and adjust to inflation here in the USA... now paying 9.62% annually and paid quarterly and compounded monthly... lock up period 12 months... and only penalty is forfeit 3 months of accrued interest if redeemed less than 5 years... no penalty after 5 years on redemption. Limit is $10K a year per person and tax ID entity. And these are non-trade-able bonds, always redeemed at par plus accumulative interest after the 1 year lock up period with tax exemptions on local and state income taxes.
Then this makes goofy stupidity growth stocks that make no money look less attractive as the risk reward becomes better balanced when interest rates go up. Actually makes sense to preserve your money in savings rather than wild eyed pie in the sky speculative stupidity like NFT's and farts in a jar.
Anyway, the idea of debt forgiveness becomes difficult for a debt based monetary system to stomach as this cuts the string to pull out too much money chasing too few goods in the system to halt inflation.
Certain debts are dumb and destructive overall. Infrastructure, utilities (power, water, sewer), Student loan and medical debt are absurd when simple non-debt taxation can take care of those items without the cost of interest and the mediators servicing the debts.
Any debt forgiveness though must go hand in hand with restructuring of prices.
What should have happened during the banks going bankrupt in 2008 was that they all should have been nationalized.
And under this nationalization, the prices pumped due to the debt binge of the Fed Reserve lower interest rates and the banks playing their goofy games to keep pumping out more debt/loans, the prices of all mortgages taken should have been remarked to the new market prices... you took out mortgage for $250K or $180K for a property now going for $150K to $110K... okay that's what the actual non-debt inflated price really was... your entire principle from origination would be remarked to that lower principle amount, all payments made would reflect on that principle amount, interest would be marked at a fixed term of about 5% to 4% (at that time a low rate).
This would have allowed the debt collapse along with prices to become stable... lowering prices to real money supply that got zapped by defaults... and kept people in their homes and kept developers who build homes in business of building the supply of homes a net positive population growth requires to keep housing affordable.
At some point, the nationalized banks would be spun back to becoming private banks, most of them turned into credit unions with the sole ownership democratically voted by their depositors as all enterprises really should be owned and operated.
And laws that halted this same stupidity, in the US it was the Glass-Steagal Act of 1933 that circumvented the same stupidity that lead up to the great depression of 1929. It placed fire walls between commercial speculative banking and deposit banking that dealt only in collateral loans such as vehicle loans or mortgages and some signature loans in installments.
And stock and junk bond nonsense was done away from normal deposit checking and savings for the wealthier able to risk more commercial bank customers.
It also barred most stock buybacks that just short term sugar rush stocks pumping and then when done dumping stock prices so that a few insiders and owners holding the stocks can sell all over everyone's little heads. This revenue from the company going to no future value is gone poof... just used to pump stock price for a very short period so that these ass holes could cash out on the top. Leaving the company with no cash to improve, grow, or otherwise operate their business better. And the stupidity of junk bonds... many companies not only took out installment loans, but floated junk bonds (they continue to this day playing this horrible stupid game) to buy back stock. Adding absolutely no value, and in fact leaving behind a zombie company that has so much money it can never repay back on any future prospects and unable to even compete into the future to grow or make better their products.
That alas did not happen. Instead we reward banks for doing horrible stupidity debt binge dispensing. Gave them bonuses and cheap consolidations to make even more money. And allowed productive supply of home developers to go bust, those left standing terrified only building enough supply of housing to promise them sales. Making housing un-affordable both in terms of rent on multi-dwelling units and on home ownership on single dwelling units.
And it forced a debt domino collapse among all the working class and some non-working class who found themselves jobless and/or under employed for several years to a decade, leading to the "Great recession".
And instead, even worse things were passed in law: Frank-Dodd Act which made it more easy for the Fed to just bypass congressional approval on TARP like programs whereby the Fed Reserve can just start buying up bank loans and other hobbled together junk instruments that allow banks to lend into an oblivion undermining the entire banking system's purpose.
1
-
1
-
The major crypto are part of a huge pump and dump scam via USDT 80% of it's liquidity is poker chips of this "stable coin".
Then there's the other "stable coins" that are more Ponzi than pyramid scheme than Tether:
USDC is a Ponzi more than pyramid in that it is a savings scheme using other savers to pay 7% return or higher on that savings... but when a run happens... USDC finally admitted several months ago that they only have 60% of the cash in their savings as dollars, prior they promised/lied that each USDC is backed by $1 USD. Like tether... tether lied and revealed several months ago that they only have 3% of their poker chips backed by $1 USD.
Terra is completely a mystery what their actual holdings are. And they too are a mix of pyramid scheme that they trade with casinos aka margin exchanges trading other crypto currency. As well as doing the Circle USDC thing promising big return 7% or higher but that return is paid out in the poker chips that and only redeemed in other savers money; and if they're using those funds for speculative investments to make a return themselves, an unknown potentially huge risk they down play pretending you're just sitting in digital dollars in crypto when really you just bought an investment poker chip that could (if you cash out before everyone else does) make the stated return, or if there is a run on their Ponzi scheme, lose most if not all of your holdings.
Tether is a bit more sinister in that they sell their USDT (tethers) poker chips to casinos aka margin exchanges at a discount. These casinos know that tether poker chips are thus likely insolvent and if too many of those poker chips get sold (yes you have to sell these poker chips on spot exchanges to some other sucker or wait for a frequent wash order that buys up the order book on a regular basis probably Tether and other affiliates to maintain the peg 1 tether for 1 USD).
So the casinos have lots of their own double dealings reserving their own amount of tether and purchased other crypto to pump and dump the market, breaking people out of their stop losses or in many instances forcing traders to liquidate their position gambling on ETH or BTC or DOGE or ADA or EOS or whatever underlying crypto with the margin based in tether.
Some major protocol was implemented several years back to link spot exchanges with these margin futures contracts to provide liquidity to spot exchanges.
That liquidity can easily vanish should tether become insolvent; unable to buy up the ask order book at spot exchanges trading tether for USD; maintain the peg.
Whenever Circle or Tether fails to maintain their peg or circle no longer has the backing to redeem circle for dollars via Coinbase (presently USDC's only partner spot exchange where one can redeem circle for no commission and actually redeem aka swap exact 1 USDC for 1 USD. No need to place a limit order and wait to see if the trading price will reach your limit sell order of tether for USD to get your fiat money so you can actually spend the stuff on everyday needs or reallocate to other gambling or investments or savings.
One thing is for certain... when this speculative mania ends... lots of horrible movies will be made about it all. And crypto will likely inspire many of them.
And don't get started on the NFT stupidity.
The stuff does seem to be unwinding. At least in real money in flows... persistent money outflows seems to be happening looking at reliable sources.
Yet, in a major red flag way, the stable coins of USDT as well as USDC and Terra seem to have minted more and more of their poker chips.
Tether minted about 7 billion more USDT in November. As the price of BTC and rest of crypto started to fall again to the 2021 summer lows. Tether seems to be sitting on much of those poker chips... or the affiliate exchanges are sitting on them... or a mix of the same. My best guess following Summer 2021 tether started minting a lot of poker chips then billions... then suddenly we saw while outflows of real USD or other fiat continued to pour out of crypto, the poker chip margin exchanges had HUGE order sizes quickly reaching over 1 billion in tether in an hour period of time buying up order books on many of the margin exchanges ask order book pumping the price back up.
The recent fall was likely the casinos and possibly even tether or under direction of tether to quickly sell short the market to dump the price to force liquidate and wreck real gamblers at these margin exchanges to keep their poker chips from hitting spot exchanges to sell for fiat.
Just be careful... these types of scams, when they end, they end fast and furiously. And usually out of nowhere. 80% of liquidity that tether represents in crypto means prices can easily fall nearly 99% as holders just want whatever cash they can get back. Traders buying the dips realize it just keeps dipping hitting their stop losses or just continuing to dip they give up and realize things are falling apart and stop trading reducing the other 20% of the liquidity... and nobody is home to trade with.
A sample of who crypto trades without influence of tether is to look at coins that don't trade on these margin exchanges like SC coin or many other coins on spot exchanges that are not on these margin exchanges. There is no liquidity driving the prices up or down. Just actual fiat money inflows and outflows. And these non-stable coin manipulated coins are looking very much in a deep winter freeze. That's similar to how the current larger market cap coins will trade whenever these stable coins fall apart... particularly if tether goes bust.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Kim Manufacturing is already very automated here in the US.
Most are already mostly machine driven.
Of machines you still need operators of those machines, quality techs (you can couple those depending in the complexity of operation of the machines), fork lift drivers even if you couple that with automated forklifts which aren't useful for most heavy pallet loads, and order fulfillment teams... you can literally run a shift on about 10 to 20 people per line in operation.
Just depends on what's being done, what is being manufactured.
Manufacturing doesn't employ that many people even now, but it does pay better than most other occupations as it produces massive amounts of wealth; takes in very cheap inputs and makes it into mass quantities of finished goods worth much more than the inputs.
And then you mentioned engineers... often most manufacturing outfits may only employee 1 or 2 or a handful of engineers per company or set of factories, other factories are cheap and just source engineering out as they're not needed that frequently, only when making specific updates, changes to product lines, installing new machinery, etc. Then their job is over. Mechanics, operators, QC, etc. all take over from there.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
He was playing on a protest... as if pushing money onto rich people holding stock is some kind of protest... but meet idiocracy in the full. It's pure unadulterated stupidity.
The morons he cultivated and gave a safe haven, feel rightfully or wrongfully (the entire thing is stupidity mixed with more stupidity just as fake magical internet money is fucking apex of stupidity) he's a salesman... watched Meet Kevin several other times way prior to the pandemic.
His real-estate hype to me anyway, sounded like a big debt trap he was pushing himself into... he has lots of liabilities. He's probably in debt to his eye balls. And I think he saw 2020 and some of the stupidity during the 2021 on meme stocks, that it was a get out of debt quick scheme. A really rich person doesn't bother doing youtube.
He is a grifter... he swaps between real-estate to crypto to stocks.
He sets examples as if he knows what he's doing... when really he's setting people up to failure.
He got what he was coming. He was utilizing the morons protesting throwing money at the rich via buying up meme stocks thinking somehow this was going to make the rich hurt hard, the hedgies the imaginary scapegoats... little brainlets don't understand short sellers are all over the place small and large... and in generally shorting stock is expensive and done quick and fast; literally day trades... swing trades on shorts last about a week at the most or for the period of a dump that happens. And it usually is accompanied by hedging long positions along with shorts. Hence the term hedge funds... it's a contrary to the longs that are much larger than the hedge to the short side.
I think too many movies scrambled the mindless rubes minds seeing the long period Big Short movie has many of them holding onto a short position for a long period of time... that's not normal... holding those shorts wasn't normal... they had to hold them for so long because they literally had to create an entire scheme custom made to short the CDO's of real-estate. And they couldn't just offload them super quick because being newly custom creations, the very people who sold them these instruments weren't valuing them appropriately... of course... was a bit of a fraud... that's why they dumped finally when they did all involved in the big short of real-estate.
That's not a typical short. Neither is the prolonged stupidity of GME... they're looking at outliers and expecting them to be the norm. The norm is that shorts are in for a week or two at the most... most often it's a day trade.
They're hardly never in longer than a month... try shorting anything for longer than that, even if the trade goes your way, interest on the borrowing of the stock and potential hitting your stop loss or getting a margin call can ruin your risk reward ratio.
So basically... Kevin is a grifter... I watched back in 2017 and/or 2019 somewhere around then all his real-estate dealings... he would sort of go over all his holdings and how he would use equity loans to purchase more and more real-estate and think its fine and dandy to have a few homes or apartments paid off with the rest borrowed and borrow more for another property... basically confusing that no matter what on the aggregate he's in debt, expecting and assuming renters are a dime a dozen, and no problem, just get a renter no matter what price for rent they pay... ignoring the fact you could get rental prices that do not pay the mortgage or the several other mortgages and the property taxes on ALL of the properties.
He's grifter.
Was he smart to dump his stuff... yeah... he was losing his ass. And I suspect the grifter is still in debt to his eye balls... if not... he just salvaged the gambling in real-estate leverage he did in the mid 2000's to preserve what he's got. Perhaps he's upside a few million or a million.
I personally think he owes more than he has in net.
So you can blame him.. but the morons following youtubers like this need to blame their own laziness of due diligence. Their absurd dumbness not to investigate this stuff to the max. I mean you're gambling your hard earned money... even your stimi money wasn't "free" particularly if your were or continued to work, it's just a tax rebate... some of your tax money you got back to keep you afloat.
So if you're suddenly like myself interested in crypto to see what all the fuss is about, and also finally want to dabbl in stocks and options because the commissions are way low or completely gone... you do research. Lots of it.
My nephew... an ape who got me to buy AMC (Glad he did) but I sold it at $73 a share... learning what was really going on... a gamma squeeze to the highest strike call option at the time $73. And once price got there, market makers would be fully covered on the calls they sold, and would no longer be buying the stock up to cover their calls. So I sold it pre-market, texted my nephew to sell. He didn't. I explained he could get in at a lower price and buy even more stocks... but nope... all about the conspiracies that they didn't even research themselves... just group think... no scouring and playing devils advocate to find out the realness of what was going on.
Past month, I figured he had been selling covered calls on his AMC shares he has over 100 shares... He didn't even know you could sell covered calls or cash secured puts.
He was upset... as he "knew" AMC would go thru a bearish phase. You could literally have sold a few week expiration calls for $300 to $600 bucks repeatedly... making lots of money.
I was doing that with cash secured puts all summer long on AMC. I told him that at the time in the summer... thinking he understood what I was talking about... obviously he didn't.
I referred him to youtube to learn about covered calls and cash secured puts and appropriate strategies at managing them because they're nuanced... and at the time he didn't seem to believe me.
Which is funny. Over and over I sold BTC right at the correct time... I talked him out of shorting Dogecoin just before it popped to 70ish cents... would have liquidated his position... told him to sell at the top of AMC...
But you can't trust your uncle... he hasn't a clue what he's talking about.
Kids these days LOL!
1
-
1
-
1