Comments by "Bruce Tucker" (@brucetucker4847) on "Military History Visualized"
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The Soviet invasion of Manchuria was certainly a shock to the Japanese, who had been hoping the Soviets would mediate a peace, but the Soviets had no ability to invade Japan itself or to compel a Japanese surrender. The US, with some help from the UK, was the only nation that had the means to defeat the Japanese in their home islands, whether by invasion, naval blockade, or massive aerial bombardment (including the atomic bombs). In the event, Japan surrendered to the USSR along with all the other Allied nations, and the fact that the Soviets were not allowed to occupy any of the main Japanese islands was decided by the Allies (particularly the US), not the Japanese - nothing was said on that subject in the instrument of surrender.
sahil sing, watch the video. Some civilians wanted to surrender but the army, who had been running the government for over a decade, was adamantly opposed. The Japanese peace feelers were not for a surrender with retention of the emperor, they were for a negotiated settlement with no occupation of Japan and with Japan retaining its pre-1937 conquests including Korea and Manchuria, which was totally unacceptable to the Allies. When the Japanese government, after the bombs, the Soviet attack, and the intervention of the emperor, finally did offer surrender with the sole condition of the retention of the emperor, the Allies immediately accepted, with the proviso that the ultimate form of Japan's postwar government would be decided by its people through a democratic process.
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From looking at that paper it appears that the surveys in question were just trying to determine if the explosion was from an atomic weapon at all, not what sort of weapon it was. They didn't even make the final determination that the bomb was atomic until August 10. The other objective was determining the effects on human health of the particular kinds of radiation/fallout found at Hiroshima.
And there was zero knowledge about the manufacture of plutonium in Japan in 1945. They certainly wouldn't have had the slightest idea about the capacity of the Hanford reactor or the uranium purification plant at Oak Ridge. Theoretical knowledge would be useless there, it was a question of the size of the facilities. Incidentally, plutonium wasn't first synthesized and discovered in a reactor, it was synthesized in a cyclotron (a type of early particle accelerator), but the amounts produced by cyclotron were far too small to produce a critical mass that could be used in a weapon. The whole reason the gun design was discarded for use with plutonium was that the reactor-produced plutonium contained unexpected impurities that were not present in the cyclotron-produced samples and those impurities would cause pre-detonation (a "fizzle") if used in the gun design. Again, since this was the only plutonium producing reactor on the planet it's extremely unlikely that anyone without access to the Manhattan Project (i.e., the US, UK, and Stalin's spies) had any idea about this as it had not been predicted by theory, it was only discovered once the reactor was up and running and the plutonium it produced could be analyzed. It's not even clear that during the war the Japanese knew of the existence of the reactor at Hanford that was producing plutonium as their own atomic program was focused on uranium.
There's also zero indication in that paper that the survey team was aware of any difference between the bombs used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki until after the war.
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