Comments by "John Berry" (@user-ud6ui7zt3r) on "Why Economists Hate Trump's Tariff Plan | WSJ" video.

I think I get your point, but if the informed industrial customers KNOW that they want Chinese steel, then, such customers won't buy American steel, at ANY price, because the informed industrial customers know that American steel is not the "stuff" that they want. That being the case, why raise the price of American steel, to match the "tariffed" price of imported Chinese steel? It sounds like someone in the industrial "pricing loop" is a bit balmy between the ears. Either that, or all the Steel Importers decided to opportunistically "price gouge" the American steel consumers. I am not in favor of the practice of government-enforced Price Controls, but maybe importers should be required to formally file and list THE REASON as to why they suddenly decide to raise the price of a commodity?
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You would think that a graduate of the Wharton School of Business would notice the after-effects of placing a tariff on imported Chinese steel, especially when such a tariff leads immediately to higher inflation within the USA. At the very least, you would think that Trump's friend, Larry Kudlow, would clue Trump in.
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@NorthernChev I am aware of the "two neighborhood Gas Stations" example. However, let's construct a metaphor, by supposing that Gas were Steel. Then Gas Station #1 is selling Chinese Steel, and Gas Station #2 is selling American Steel (and the two stations are in the same neighborhood, right across the street from each other.) Many of the Steel Customers are Informed Customers who know that they can only use Chinese Steel. Such customers won't buy American Steel, at any price, because they know that their applications won't work with American Steel. Now let's extend the metaphor, by calling Chinese Steel "apples" and American Steel "oranges". If the price of Apples goes up, why would anyone follow through to identically raise the price of Oranges? There is no Law of Nature that says... The price of Oranges must follow, and be kept the same as, the price of Apples! Since, in the Steel Distributing industry, such marketers think that such a "natural Law" does exist, then such marketers are identically (and unnecessarily) manufacturing inflation. The only reason anyone would buy the drastically marked-up Oranges is because they need Oranges, and the Steel Distributors are the only source for Oranges. Furthermore, if just one of the Steel Distributors kept their selling price for Oranges low, then that Steel Distributor would sell a huge quantity of Oranges, whereas the other Steel Distributors wouldn't succeed to sell any Oranges. If we disagree on these points, then, as gentlemen, let's agree to disagree.
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@NorthernChev Honestly, I had never before heard of the word, conflation. I had to look it up. Conflation means... the merging of two or more sets of information, texts, ideas, etc. into one. It would seem that, in this world, we have people who believe that conflating Chinese Steel with American Steel is not only possible, but entirely justified. I would even go so far as to refer to the domestic Steel Distributors, who believe in conflating Chinese Steel with American Steel, as conflationists. No insult is intended. My only intent here is to achieve clarification of the overall issue.
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@NorthernChev For YouTube? Just one. ONLY one. Why do you ask?
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@Broodplank86 I am saying that I am puzzled as to why Trump would select to implement tariffs upon imported Chinese Steel, when, as a man educated in the fundamental principle known as Supply and Demand, Trump would be aware of the imminent price increases that domestic Steel Distributors would implement, where the sale and distribution of American Steel is concerned. I am all for Trump wanting to be... "Put America FIRST!" ...in his policies, but I'm not sold on the idea that import tariffs accomplish that, especially when a guy like Trump would certainly know that domestic Steel Distributors will raise their price for American Steel, as an immediate consequence. Surely, a guy like Larry Kudlow, who I do not regard as a "yes" man, would be keenly aware of such a predictable pricing response, and would communicate that point to Trump.
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@NorthernChev If the outcome of competition, and competitive pricing, is not defeated within a domestic American industry, by way of a new law, then such a law could succeed to update the rules that a Capitalist society must observe. Such a law could be created that forbids domestic "price matching" relative to the price of any imported commodity that has a government-added tariff added to the imported commodity's base price. In other words, I think that conflation represents an identifiable and unnecessary error in reasoning, and that the state of elevated inflation in America could greatly be offset if this error in reasoning were finally, and properly, addressed with new legislation, of the sort that does not defeat competition within a domestic American industry, nor defeats competitive pricing within a domestic American industry.
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@NorthernChev Thank you for being so patient with me! I am thinking that my educational background in Computer Science and Mathematics has established a "mindset" within my brain, that is not given to adopting Logical Fallacies. Don't take this as an insult, but to my intuitive way of thinking, adopting Conflation as an acceptable "mode" of reasoning is tantamount to practicing cognitive dissonance. Part of a mind is aware that Apples are not Oranges, while another part of the mind says... "Yeah, let's go ahead and treat Oranges as if they were indeed Apples!" In a computer language that performs strict Data Type checking, such an equivalence would not "fly."
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@elbozo5723 Conflation, in this matter, is a logical fallacy. Apples are not Oranges. Chinese Steel is not American Steel. In nearly every area of human endeavor, failure to acknowledge the existence of a logical fallacy leads to causing problems. Bad reasoning leads to bad economic practices. Even if the American consumer were not hurt at all when conflation is used to determine the price of a domestically-distributed commodity, I would still have to point out that conflation (i.e. the practice of treating Oranges as if they are indeed Apples) likely leads to the adoption and practice of faulty traditions and faulty policies. This point is on equal footing, when it comes to being a Natural Law, with the principle of Supply & Demand.
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@Broodplank86 My syllogistic argument includes the fact that Trump graduated from the Wharton School of Business, and I feel certain that Trump had to take-and-pass at least one, if not several classes that taught micro-economics and macro-economics. Such classes would have analyzed the effect of conflationists, and their pricing practices, within the domestic American economy. It is the conflationists, who operate within major commodity industries, here in America, who "screw up" the intended POSITIVE effects of import tariffs. Other "bad actors" also mess-up the intended positive effects of import tariffs, but those "bad actors" are based outside of the borders of the USA. The foreign "bad actors" practice economic retaliation, targeted upon America. We Americans can't do much about foreign economic retaliation, but we might be able to do something about economic "bad actors" who operate inside the borders of America, as long as the corrective measures (probably legislative, in nature) do not defeat the outcome of competition within any domestic industry.
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@ericbailey6779 If you start from the very first Reply in this Reply Section (which was posted by ME), and read the entire back 'n' forth discussion that the OP Commenter (NorthernChev) and I had, you would learn that... • the domestic American steel distribution industry historically practices a "pricing policy" that is based upon the adoption of a logical fallacy, known as conflation. I even posted the definition of the word, so that everyone could "follow along" with our discussion. In brief, conflation means that, where commodities are concerned, two items that are as different as Apples and Oranges become looked upon as if there is no difference between an Apple and an Orange; and • in the course of the discussion, it was the surprising and fervent contention of NorthernChev that the informed customers (of the domestic Steel Distribution business that NorthernChev works for) preferred the imported Chinese Steel, because, for reasons not presented, the American Steel does not perform satisfactorily in subsequent machining operations and applications. Something to consider... Eric, here are 2 scenarios, for you to choose from... • suppose that you charged a high wage for your labor, and that the wage was the highest wage that anyone, anywhere, could actually receive for your form of labor. But there's a catch! By receiving this sort of wage, you influence the entire American economy that you "live" in to have an extremely high rate of inflation, which necessarily surrounds you with high prices, everywhere you look. As a result, your "high wage" doesn't "spend" very far; ...OR... • suppose that you agree to accept a lower wage for the form of labor that you do, but once again, there's a catch! By accepting the lower wage, you immediately influence the entire American economy to have a low rate of inflation, which immediately results in YOUR being "surrounded" with LOW PRICES, everywhere you look. The result is that, numerically, you make a lower wage (when compared with the first scenario), but that lower wage spends "farther" than the preceding "high wage" scenario. So, Eric, of the two scenarios that I just presented, which would YOU prefer to choose, for yourself? From what I can tell, based upon my Reply discussion with NorthernChev (which, in entirety, is posted within this Reply section), NorthernChev's domestic Steel Distribution company always selects the FIRST scenario. Given how influential the domestic $price$ of steel is, within the American economy, the direct result is that the entire domestic American economy gets driven into a state of high prices and high inflation.
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@jasonmerrill8917 To me, most of the fancy reasoning, which attempts to explain Capitalism, centers around the propensity of human beings to think with their stomach, as opposed to think with their brain. Let's say, on some sunny 🌄afternoon, you suddenly have a hankering for SWEET 🍓🍓strawberries. So you head towards town, and you find a McDonalds, and there happens to be a roadside fruit stand, next door to the McDonalds. Let's say the McDonalds will sell you a large strawberry🥤shake, made with absolutely NO strawberries, but instead contains great-tasting strawberry 🍓syrup. Next door, the fruit stand will sell you a 1-quart tupperware container, filled with SWEET actual 🍓🍓strawberries. You need to get your "strawberry fix", and to achieve that, your stomach doesn't care that REAL🍓strawberries, versus artifically-flavored 🍓strawberry syrup, are not the same thing. In other words, your stomach practices "stomach logic". In the realm of "stomach logic", committing a Logical Fallacy (in this case, conflating Real Strawberries WITH FAKE strawberries) is of no concern. Meanwhile, your🧠brain ABSOLUTELY KNOWS that there exists an important and discernible difference between Real Strawberries and FAKE "strawberries". It is on points like this where I have "issues" understanding other people's lectures on Capitalism. The lecturers are usually people who think with their stomach, and then go to great lengths to support their "stomach reasoning" with subsequent 🧠"brain reasoning".
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@banderson8444 I am not a bot. Nobody hands me a script. I compose my own ideas, and my own questions. I don't work for any government, and certainly not a foreign government (i.e. one that is outside the USA.) Chev said he looked up my YT account status, and I am still wondering how the heck that works. I will admit to being loquacious, when it comes to typing Replies. How does that put up a RED FLAG for being a 'bot' ? I paid attention during the Grammar portion of English class, when my English teacher presented the importance of complete sentences, so therefore I must be A BOT?
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@kurtmartin8316 I'm a fan, but I'm not a fan-boy. I'm not the sort who would make excuses for someone. As to how dedicated a student Trump was, I really couldn't say. Not only that, but Trump's college years occurred before my time. It was a whole different world, back then. A lot of my professors, when I was in college, went to college during the same years as when Trump was in college. One of my favorite professors used to joke that, the only reason he (my professor) went on to get his doctorate was so he could continue to avoid the draft. (👈It was a joke.)
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@accuratealloys Just so you know, I live in NYS (USA), and I recently completed working [4] years for a 2-facility steel fabrication plant, that specializes in cutting/machining/welding/painting "stock steel" constructs. The company has even done work for Elon Musk's electric cars. As far as I know, about half of the steel that we ever used came from a local steel distributor, that is located practically within the same NYS city. Therefore, I am guessing that we also were on the end that got🪛'ed. [dry, too; like a university economics lecture.]
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@dachosens1 If you get a chance, around the 70th Reply, I posted some interesting points, regarding demand for Real 🍓Strawberries versus the demand for artificially-flavored strawberry🥤shakes. Since posting that Reply, I thought of an additional example. Suppose that sweet Real 🍓🍓Strawberries were imported to America, and when they got here, they immediately had a government-issued tariff applied to them, which substantially raised their price. Now suppose that, somewhere within America, a company produces and distributes artificially-flavored Strawberry Syrup (used as an ingredient for strawberry 🥤shakes), and that not a single strawberry is used to produce the flavored syrup. From what I can tell, a conflationist would raise the price of their artificially-flavored strawberry syrup, TO MATCH the per-unit-volume price of the tariffed imported strawberries, even though not a single strawberry is used to produce the syrup. Why would they do this? The syrup distributor would do this because MOST of the American strawberry consumers think with their stomach. From the point of view of someone's "stomach", a great tasting Strawberry🥤Shake satisfies their need to get their "strawberry fix" just as well as consuming actual (sweet) Real 🍓Strawberries. A person's 🧠brain knows that Fake Strawberries and Real Strawberries are two different things, but their stomach does not. When a person "thinks with their stomach", then they are perfectly happy to adopt a Logical Fallacy.
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@zoundstreetop And how's it working out for you? and for most people? I am all for being a Capitalist, but just the same, regarding the prices of basic necessities and basic commodities, something seems out of whack. Prices seem to keep shooting right up through the "pain threshold" of most people. Prices are supposed to "settle out" at the point where the Supply Curve intersects with the Demand Curve.
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@NorthernChev Thank you for your Reply! The "inside baseball" details of macro-economics can be fascinating. While I have your attention, can you tell me more about the disinformation bot notice that you received? I tell you honestly, I have no agenda, and no axe to grind regarding any group. If some entity is secretly labeling me as a disinformation bot, then I would say that the secret entity is the TRUE disinformation bot.
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@AL-lh2ht Forgive me, but there are so many topics, and so much action, in this Reply section, that I am not exactly sure as to what your intended point is. I am guessing that you are using sarcasm as a gesture of humor. In general, I think the idea of using import tariffs to successfully improve the American economy is a challenging prospect. In a globalized economy, almost nothing happens adiabatically, in a vacuum. One change, made in one place, is bound to produce "ripple effect" changes in many other places. Expecting that none of the subsequent "ripples" will return to you, and produce some sort of unwanted negative effect, would indeed be naive. Still, somebody in leadership has got to at least try to do something. The American economy is not in great shape, and on its present "joe biden" trajectory, it's headed for worse shape.
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@jeffreyharvey8111 I appreciate that you took the time to read my posted Reply. As this Reply section continues to attract more and more interesting commentary, I find myself hoping that Senator John Kennedy's staff comes across this Reply section, so that he might read aloud from it, during one or two of his enjoyable Senate committee cross examinations. He always seems to "dig up" interesting stuff, in the course of a Google search.
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@accuratealloys To everyone, and Accurate Alloys, who has helped broaden-the-discussion within this Reply section, I want to say, "Thank you!" I am learning SO MUCH from this import macro- and micro- Economics "deep dive." I feel edified, which is the way that I often feel when I hear both Senator John Kennedy and Senator Ted Cruz speak, during Senate hearings.
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@NorthernChev I really don't know why you classify me as a 'bot' account. I don't read from or repeat a script. I think for my own self. I pose and ask my own questions. I own my very own brain, and it likes to be adventurous enough to compose its own ideas, and its own questions. I only have one YT account, and I have no idea why you posted an identical reply (regarding your 'bot' accusation) to some John-100 account. That account is not my account. I don't work for any government, and especially not any foreign government. I am what I am (and I ain't what I ain't!)
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@MusicAsWeMakeIt Actually, I recently spent 4 years working for a domestic American business that made specialty welded/machined/painted steel assemblies, weighing anywhere from 6 pounds to 6000 pounds. We were obviously on the "receiving" end of those steel prices that were raised to match with the tariffed prices of imported steel. We even did work for Elon Musk's electric cars. A lot of our work was building MRI machines for the medical market, along with building cellphone-building machines for the semiconductor market. As far as who to choose to listen to, I would advise anyone to simply do their own research as well as their own thinking. There is a well-known logical fallacy associated with accepting an opinion simply because the opinion came from someone touted to be an authority. The fallacy is known as Argumentum ad Verecundiam.
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@Casualphilosopher-db9gy Good intentions don't always lead to intelligent outcomes. When you start dictating pricing policies, to be enforced by government, then what you are proposing is tantamount to price controls. Price controls, when practiced in countries like Russia, have historically had devastating economic effects. For any such pricing policy to actually work, it would have to preserve the outcome of competitive pricing among all of the domestic distributors/manufacturers within the USA.
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@TooLOWtoobeGone Even a computer science degree requires that you take at least two economics courses. Mine did.
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@Sarah-hm1kb Recently, for 4 years, I worked for a custom fabrication steel factory, right here in the USA. Starting with stock steel, we performed custom welding/machining/painting. The first task, where the stock steel came into the factory, was for the "saw" man to cut the stock steel into sections. A short while before that job, I worked in construction, and one of my job bosses had two LARGE bandsaws, where the saw sat at about a 35° angle, and, against the force of a spring, you had to push the blade down, closer and closer to a 0° angle, to make a "cut" with the bandsaw blade. Anyways, regarding your domestic (American) Family Business, you will probably understand the point that I have been trying to make, in the course of many back 'n' forth discussions, posted throughout this overall Reply section (which now has around 186 posted Replies.) When USA-based Steel Distributors automatically (and opportunistically) raise their price TO MATCH that of the incoming tariffed imported Chinese steel, then doing so potentially KILLS a large portion of the American steel-purchasing market that they sell to. I liken this to how, state-by-state, every state has a Fish and Wildlife department, that issues hunting licenses, and enforces hunting seasons. 👈 Why do states do this? Ans: they do this because they want to make sure that each of the various "hunted" animal species ARE NOT HUNTED TO EXTINCTION. Think about it. What good does it do to always, and automatically, apply the unwritten "rules" of Capitalism (which the conflationist USA steel distributors interpret as... If imported Chinese steel is tariffed, then we USA steel distributors must automatically raise our price to match! ) ...if doing so puts a MASSIVE count of their USA-based customers out of business? It is with my point in mind that I suggest that the upcoming Trump administration enact laws and/or regulations that address this "kill-the-entire-customer-base" possibility. At the same time, such laws or regulations need to be crafted with great care. For instance, do you remember the now defunct Blockbuster Video rental chain? Just before BV went out of business, it was backing an outmoded technology (when compared with renting movies off of Netflix.) In no way would I ever want the US government to uselessly "prop up" a business that backs an outmoded technology method, and thereby assure that such a business (like BV) never goes "extinct." I would want laws and regulations that PRESERVE competitive pricing among all the USA-based distributors, especially when they sell to USA-based customers. Do you agree?
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@kogorun What I'm suggesting works like this... suppose you had 5 players who wanted to play poker. 4 of the players live and work in America, where all 4 distribute the same commodity to Americans, but all 4 players work for separate businesses. The 5th player lives and works in China, and is an importer that imports the same commodity (to America) that the American players produce. I am suggesting that we Americans create laws that make it so, within the borders of America, only the 4 American players can "sit down" to play a standard game of poker at the table, while the 5th player is tariffed so strongly, they essentially do not get a "seat" at the gaming table. Here, within this comment section, I am asking "why wouldn't this work?" For the 4 American players, they get to participate in a competitive game. As long as the element of competition is preserved, I am thinking that the goal of "playing" Capitalism would still be achieved.
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@andrewcecka I don't know what your comment has to do with the price of domestically produced and distributed steel, within the USA, but I am certainly enticed by the notion of scoring some peach cobbler. I'm not a "bot", so I don't take commands from anyone.
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@dougberry4535 To me, it's starting to seem like the THREAT of Trump instating import tariffs IMMEDIATELY gets our foreign competitors to respond favorably, but, IF our (USA) businesses respond to Trump's import tariffs by practicing conflationist pricing (i.e. raise the price on their domestically produced and domestically distributed Goods and Commodities TO MATCH the associated "tariff added" import prices), then Trump's upcoming tariffs will not do the American economy any good. My guess is that the News Media, and Trump, and Kevin O'Leary, are ALL going to pretend that domestic conflationist pricing DOESN'T HAPPEN (similar to when you see people push their fingers into their ears while loudly saying... LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA- ... .) I guess we will all have to "wait 'n' see" how it all plays out.
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 @news-radar-hub Are you referring to the idea that there might be an inflated yet collapsible bubble hiding in the midst of all of this?
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@tomredaintdead9575 From what the "blue text" tally says, this is probably the 300th reply in this comment section. I am always surprised to see that this video, which was uploaded about 3 months ago, continues to garner a lot of public interest. Right now, I am wondering when the topics discussed in this reply section will finally be directly mentioned and addressed by Trump and his hand-picked team. I wish good things for Donald Trump and his team, but I also suspect that, when September rolls around, if prices at the grocery store (and the like) do not substantially show improvement, then the "honeymoon" phase might be over a lot quicker than Trump's team suspects. At the very least, I look forward to hearing debates about the topics discussed in this reply section, on the floor and within the committees of the Congress and Senate.
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You mention Washing Machines. We might as well include the other major appliance, Stove/Oven combos. Both of these expensive appliances, in a short period of time, break down. When they break down, it is usually due to the electronic Control Board. What someone within America needs to do, starting with a readily available programmable Single Board Computer (think Arduino, or Raspberry Pi), is to create an open source program that can readily be downloaded into either of the Single Board Computers just mentioned, and design the program to readily control any manufacturer's Washing Machine or Stove/Oven. There is no sense in throwing away a $2000 major appliance WHEN a readily available Single Board Computer could be programmed to provide all the functionality that the major appliance possessed when it was brand new. Of course, such a Single Board Computer will need peripheral interfaces (i.e. touchpad keypad; lighted display; etc.) To this end, a bluetooth connection, between an iPhone or an Android phone, combined with an appropriate phone app, could be used as an all-purpose interface to nearly any major appliance. Do all this, that I am suggesting, and nobody will need to buy a new Washing Machine, or Stove/Oven, for at least another 20 years.
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