Comments by "Wojtek The Bear" (@wojtekthebear4958) on "The History of Paper Money - Lies - Extra History" video.
-
12
-
7
-
5
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
In terms of the net change, fractional reserve banking doesn't mess anything up. You have to remember the large scale this is being done at. Due to the Law of Large Numbers, fractional reserve banking becomes a lot safer at such a large scale. That's because there's (normally) not huge fluctuations in things like deposits or withdrawals, so banks know how much money to keep on hand to meet the withdrawal requirements for their depositors while still having money to lend out at a profit. If this was a smaller scale, the fluctuations would be much larger, making the banks have a hard time meeting the withdrawal requirements safely. I hope that made sense. If you have any question about this, I'll try to explain it better.
You are right that this system does break down, but it is rare to happen and there are safeguards put in place by the central banks. First instance, the FDIC here in the USA personally guarantees up to $250,000 of any deposit at a bank. So if the bank isn't able to pay it back and goes bankrupt, the FDIC will pay it in their stead. Similarly if a bank has loaned out too much money and doesn't have enough to meet the daily withdrawal requirements of their depositors, then they can use the Federal Reserve, our central banking institution, as a lender of last resort, and ask for a loan from them. These loans have a smaller interest attached to them than a normal commercial bank gives, and they allow the bank to meet the daily withdrawals in case of an emergency. So in rare instances the system can take a beating, like the 2008 Financial Crash we were in, but normally the government has some way of alleviating the problem.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Joe Vasicek Yeah, and I already explained the title. The US middle class is shrinking because those that were once middle class are now upper class. There's no way they're getting poorer as the lower class has also decreased by a point. Of the three classes lower, middle, and upper the only one to show an increase in the percentage of the population is the upper class. What does that say about the percentage of Americans who went from middle to upper class? They also increased.
You mean inflation, a measure that calculates the average increase in price of all the goods in an economy, only measures the price of all the goods in an economy? Wow, color me shocked. That means the increase in healthcare and housing are rising in price not due to inflation, but other factors. Like, I don't know, increased problems due to asymmetric information and monopolistic tendencies for healthcare insurers, or an increased demand for housing that outpaced the supply as consumer confidence increased.
FYI: If you want to make a credible argument, don't link to non-reputable sources like Zerohedge. You could've just taken an article from the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal, both credible sources and the latter right-wing, about the subject, as they both have written on healthcare and housing costs.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Joe Vasicek 1. That wouldn't break the back of the petrodollar as of the BRIC countries (and Iran) the only oil exporters are Iran and Russia. Their oil exports together equal Saudi Arabia's (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_exports), which is only a fraction of the total oil exports of OPEC. So they have a ways to go to compete with OPEC
2. That would go against Saudi Arabia's interests as they're only concerned about selling oil for as much as they can. They wouldn't intentionally cut the price of their largest export unless they thought they could drive away competition, which didn't happen. The US fracking industry contracted during the fall in oil, but has rebounded very well since then. Saudi Arabia has even called for the OPEC nations (and others) to stop producing so much, but, as game theory would tell us, no country wants to be the first to cut production as they'd be at a huge disadvantage against their competitors.
3. This doesn't make sense. The Iraqi government was already being influenced by the US, and already traded oil in the dollar as they are a part of OPEC. Also ISIS more had to do with the oppression of Sunni's under the Shiite Iraqi government after the Shittes were oppressed under a Sunni Iraqi government. ISIS also go its funding from Al Qaida as they were once a sect of them.
4. Restore the dollar where? Iraq? It's already used there. Syria? Already used there. Iran? They're not even close to reaching them. They are also doing a bad job at aiding ISIS considering they are supplying the Kurds, Iraqi government, and Syrian rebels to fight them.
5. That's true.
More like, once the rebels in Aleppo falls, the Syrian opposition basically falls apart. That's why the Aleppo siege is getting so much media attention. Then ISIS is also falling apart under the attacks from all sides. Furthermore the petrodollar wouldn't protect us against a recession. I'm also not sure how any of this has to do with the Bretton Woods system either. Because the global economy collapses, all the nations will be forced to peg their currency to a single nation's currency which is pegged to gold? You realize that failed right? And it was enacted after WW2, a period of growth in the world economy, not a depression.
Notice I never used the term petrodollar. There's a reason for that. The petrodollar just means that the USD in some way gets its value from oil. It is not some currency of its own. Also, if the USD were attached so closely to oil, the value of the USD should fluctuate with the value of oil, but as my statistical test showed, the USD and the price of oil are not correlated. For that reason, I don't think this dollar valued mostly through oil exists.
1
-
+Joe Vasicek
1. First, OPEC is an oligopoly. They are multiple countries colluding together to gain market power. That's an oligopoly. Second, it would be nowhere near enough. In fact the devaluation of oil did more to hurt OPEC as the OPEC countries weren't even following their own quotas and overproducing beyond their limits to try and make more money, leading to an oversupply of oil.
2. Their only political interest in oversupplying the market with oil and collapsing the Russian economy would be affecting Russia's influence in both Iran and Syria, but considering an economic collapse is a huge if and Iran was already opening up to western powers like the US at the time, therefore growing no matter what happened to Russia, it makes very little sense. Then their economic interests go directly against that, so it's not hard to assume what they'd do in that situation, especially since once against they tried to call the oil exporters together to stop the overproduction of oil because they were losing so much money (http://flapship.com/2016/11/iran-pumps-more-crude-as-saudi-minister-calls-for-opec-cuts/)
3. Not so much before the rise of ISIS. They were getting all their military aid from the US and the president himself was coached by Bush on how to be a leader. They had no need to go to Iran for anything. It was only after the rise of ISIS that they needed support from Iran, so it once again doesn't make sense why the US wouldn't want to get rid of them as quick as possible. There's only so much we can do though without deploying frontline troops.
4. No, just no. The First Gulf War was caused because of the humanitarian nightmare that was Iraq invading Kuwait and installing a puppet government from Saddam's own family. Funnily enough the international community doesn't like invasions and annexations of countries. When Saddam realized the shit he got himself into, he even tried to negotiate a treaty with the US, giving us oil at a huge discount if we just let them be, and we didn't (https://www.scribd.com/document/38969813/MIDDLE-EAST-CRISIS-Secret-Offer-Iraq-Sent-Pullout-Deal-to-U-S-ALL-EDITIONS). So the war was not fought because the US was worried about oil as the Iraqis tried to use that as their way of avoiding war and failed.
5. Yeah, I know, but you don’t seem to realize what keeping the dollar means in an economic context. By having oil transactions only through the dollar, they are forces all parties to carry the dollar as you said. These means that every country demands more dollars, increasing the demand for them. This shifts the demand curve to the right, increasing the value of the dollar as shown here (http://mrski-apecon-2008.wikispaces.com/file/view/shift_in_demand_curve/41646057/shift_in_demand_curve). Just change price in that graph for value of the dollar and it’d be perfect. Once again though, my analysis showed that foreign consumers still demanded just as much of the dollar when the price of oil fell by over a half, something that shouldn’t have happened if they were significantly related. Finally, for the petrodollar system, if it existed, to be anything like Bretton Woods, the US would need to control the production of oil so that they can stabilize it to the dollar, but we can’t as we don’t control all the oil in the world. Also, again, 87% of FX trades are done using the dollar, not just oil transactions.
1
-
1
-
Joe Vasicek Turkey is fighting with Saudi Arabia over regional hegemony? Huh, I always thought they were a little more buddy buddy than that.
As for Iran, I know that but that isn't making the overproduction of oil any better for the infantile oil industries in other countries, like fracking in the US for instance. Ironically after trying to find anything on an oil production quota for OPEC I came across this article (http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/02/investing/opec-oil-decision-saudi-arabia-iran/index.html). It basically says that in their latest conference (relative to the article), Saudi Arabia was basically the only OPEC nation to call for a quota as all the other nations are using their overproduction as a way to gain market share. It's typical game theory. That was off topic though.
Actually Saudi Arabia isn't cutting production. Nor was their 2012 production any greater than usual. Here's a chart of their oil production since 1972 (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/crude-oil-production). From what I can tell, their production has remained fairly constant, with slight upward growth since 2008. This is for much a prisoner's dilemma type situation though (more game theory). Saudi Arabia won't cut production unless everyone does or else they would lose big time. If they did cut production and no one else did, then they lose out on export revenue and market share while the per barrel price of oil doesn't gain by much. The other countries on the other hand, gain from the market share and the slight uptick in oil prices. This is similar to how, while nuclear disarmament is a great idea (on paper at least), no major power wants to be the first to do it because they'd then be at a huge disadvantage.
Do you have a source for the Kremlin claim? I don't know anything either way on that issue.
Wow, you've lived an interesting life. All I can say is that I'm currently getting a degree in economics at a university. Nothing like what you've said.
1
-
1
-
It's fiat actually, and there's an interesting point to mention. If there is little faith in a currency, the currency has little foreign demand, meaning that the valuation of the currency is extremely low. This can actually be good for a country though, especially a country with a developing economy. The low valuation of your currency means that your products are cheaper abroad (as the domestic currency can buy more of your own), giving your exporting industries a boast. As your economy grows, the faith in your currency will then grow, allowing you to become more consumption focused. Because of this, it is probably a better idea for an infant economy to use a lower value fiat currency than one pegged to the gold standard, especially because that would require them to actually buy gold, which can be a drain on the government's resources.
That's one of the reasons China has such a great exporting industry. They have been intentionally devaluing their currency in order to make their exports cheaper abroad. Now that their economy is great though and they have started experiencing a slowdown, they have instead stopped devaluing it so much and are not allowing it to gain some value, similar to the theoretical scenario I gave above.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Dude, what? The industrial revolution started in Britain in the late 18th century and didn't spread to rest of the world until around the beginning of the 19th century. Similarly the steam engine wasn't reliably viable for ships until 1807, and those were nowhere near the size of warships. Of course the engine would need perfecting until it could handle a warship. The ironclad, that being shapes made entirely from iron, began construction in 1856 originally by the British. Keep in mind the first warship to use a steam engine wasn't built until 1850 by the British, so the steam engine was barely up for such a task. This is also evidenced in the first battle between ironclads in history during the American Civil War where the Union Monitor was mostly under the water and it's main gun turret was only just over the waterline. They were also both incredibly slow.
Finally, most navies aren't modern? Over 140 ships are powered through nuclear energy, the UK has 74 active ships, France has 86 ships including four ballistic missile submarines (one of the most advanced ships to exist, behind aircraft carriers and nuclear submerines), China has an aircraft carrier, is building another, and is pumping out cruisers like nobody's business, India also has a crapload of ships including a nuclear powered submarine, a ballistic missile sub, an aircraft carrier, etc. Then there's Japan, which has 154 ships and over 300 aircraft dedicated to its navy, not airforce. See, this is why making sweeping generalizations is often stupid, because you come off as an ignorant idiot when you're proven wrong. Sure, countries like Egypt might not have the most advanced ships ever, but they're also not a fully developed country, nor do they have the stability to really support one when their problems are at land.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1