Comments by "Joao Costa" (@JoaoCosta-pn9im) on "Al Arabiya English" channel.

This is an attempt to raise the demand for rubles and as a consequence strengthening its value vis-a-vis euro and dollar. But that will back fire. Less purchases will happen and Russia will also be further deprived of strong currencies such as euro and dollar for its imports; sellers will not be interested in getting rubles for their goods. This measure will momentarily slow down the devaluation of the ruble, but once the effects Russia expects do not come, the devaluation will accelerate.
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It will fail
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@AbdusSalam-ll1yp Yes. Remember, winter is over. Spring is here. Europe has gas and oil stored for the next 90 days. Then Summer sets in. Enough time to finalize additional deal with Arab countries, Iran and Venezuela. Now that Putin made his move, it is the right time for the West to make his plan fail and break his spine. The resolve is strong. Having stop short of military reactionEurope and US cannot give him a chance to succeed with his deals. In the end is a horrible war confrontation versus Putin’s head. The Russians understood the game already. War confrontation will not leave anyone behind to tell the story. Although his arrogance does not change, this is a last resource desperate move to untie the rope around his neck.
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@muhammadmustapha4136 look, the commodities, energy and metals Russia is self reliant on do not guarantee the living standards Russian people live. Although the pre-war living standards were good, they were even better before the invasion of Crimea and after that Covid. By any measure Russian got use to travel abroad freely and have foreign products available in their supermarkets and shopping malls. This is now basically gone. The prices of products, even milk, has gone up about 30% or more. The devaluation of the ruble in more than 40% has had a huge impact on prices of most products. The situation in not funny at all. Many Russians are leaving the country. Besides that employment in the large cities is being severely affected. Of course Russians will not be starving and dying on the streets, but they are already feeling the pain.
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@muhammadmustapha4136 Look, Russia cannot set up its own dedicated international market where only transactions (buying and selling) are taking place in ruble. This cannot work, especially with an unreliable pariah country. If that was easy, China, that has a very strong position in the international market and an equally strong economy, would have already done that with its currencies. And China would be a really stable and thrust worthy partner than Russian can possibly be at the moment.
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@muhammadmustapha4136 the volume of trade in yuan is very small, even with all direct investment China is making in African countries.
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@muhammadmustapha4136 I am not sure I understood what you said about US. Pegging international trade to a specific currency apart from dollar first and euro second, is not so simple. Buyers and sellers want currencies they can use to pay for and buy goods from anyone anywhere in the world. No one is interested in getting locked in transactions in a currency that very few need for their transactions. Especially the ruble in this moment of high volatility with crazy value swings. Not mentioning the fact that Russia is under severe international sanctions. Who would trust to get millions in rubles to see it all losing , let’s say, 5% of its value overnight? No chance. Traders are addicted to stability and low risk. I am from Brazil. Brazilian economy is as big as Russia’s. Brazil is a strong exporter of diverse commodities as well as manufactured goods. It may dream of having its currency recognized for international trade, but that is only a dream. Only three or four South American countries have done small percentage of their trade among themselves in their currencies. But none of them are stable enough. Besides that, they know they rely on dollars for most of the transactions with the rest of the world. Putin’s maneuver will fail. We will see. The maneuver will give some breathing space, helping the ruble to estabilize a bit and stop going down for a while. But this will not last long. Let’s see. Just follow the daily exchange rates.
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A country’s decision to link its international trade to its currency apart from dollar and euro, is not simple. Buyers and sellers in international markets want currencies they can use to pay for and buy goods from anyone anywhere in the world. No one is interested in getting locked in transactions in a currency that very few need it for their transactions. Especially the ruble in this moment of high volatility with crazy value swings. It just went back to the same value it was before Putin’s announcement. Not mentioning the fact that Russia is under severe international sanctions. Who would trust to get millions in rubles to see it all losing , let’s say, 3% of its value overnight? No chance. Traders are addicted to stability and low risk. Brazilian economy is as big as Russia’s. Brazil is a strong exporter of diverse commodities as well as manufactured goods. It may dream of having its currency recognized for international trade, but that is only a dream. Only three or four South American countries have done small percentage of their trade among themselves in their currencies. But none of them are stable enough. Besides that, they know they rely on dollars for most of the transactions with the rest of the world. Putin’s maneuver will fail. We will see. The maneuver will give some breathing space, helping the ruble to estabilize a bit and stop going down for a while. But this will not last long. As we can see, the effects of Putin’s announcement lasted less than 24 hours. The interested in following this, just check the variations of the daily exchange rates.
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This will back fire
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Sorry my dear Ambassador. Try to convince your president to take his tanks from Ukraine and the situation will get better fir your country. All that is need is a few words from him like: “ Ok, bring the guys back”. He does not need to say anything else.
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It will fail
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The plan will fail
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