Comments by "Arthur Mosel" (@arthurmosel808) on "Why Russia's Biggest Threat is Actually China" video.

  1. By the way Sakhalin was Japanese in at least 1700. Imperial Russia then began nibbling a way there and the Kyrils. By 1875, Russia had half of Sakhalin and almost all the Kyrils. Japan then cut a deal to give up the last half of Sakhalin in return for a promise to not take the the last few Kyrils or move on Hokkaido. Since WWII, Russia has occupied those islands. So if the PRC goes against Russia, perhaps Japan would take a chance to regain its lost land.
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  2. Too much Pro PRC language. The PRC is under severe economic and population problems, added currently in drought. Another concern is that a great deal of East Asia was taken from Imperial China starting in 1650. That includes Vladivostok which the PRC had talked about regaing it.
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  3. This ignores a population decline in the PRC, its economic issues (housing, banking and other business hurt by COVID and businesses moving operations out of the PRC), drought and potential famine. So, the PRC dragon is hurting and needs a successful distraction.. its choices are a risky amphibious assault accross a basically 100 mile moat that might see other forces join the fight and leave the PRC a severely damaged Taiwan or a complete failure; or a move nort h using its huge land army against a Russia tied up in a quagmire in the West and with only limited means to reinforce its East Asian lands (a situation similar to what it faced against Japan in the Russo-Japanese of 1904/1905, and that was without a Western War). With a sudden surprise move, it might provide a successful diversion; and because of territorial claims could be sold internally as a reunification of traditional territories. A thought to think about.
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