Comments by "snuffeldjuret" (@snuffeldjuret) on "SpaceX: BUSTED (Part 2)" video.

@Thyalwaysseek every test that improves the product is a success.
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@0 00 SN10 landed.
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@jonasn7739 and? Progress is progress. You wouldn't expect them to land on Mars with their first prototype.
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@Blaze6108 "but after the Falcon 9 did almost nothing to reduce launch prices despite reuse I'm not sure I can trust Elon Musk on that" that will change in x amount of years when all rocket companies are in the resuable business.
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what about his own lies though?
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@Damien.D do you remember when you said: "obviously spacex doesn't learn anything because they blow everything the same manner. I think it's only for the show."? Tell me how that applies to the journey from SN1 to SN10.
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@sangwaraumo it is evidence that he has made space flight cheaper.
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@flyingpugs3678 indeed, and it is funny people complain about the flip maneuver, which seems to be the smallest problem for Starship at the moment :P.
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@benjaminchristianhay don't forget the money they saved on the space shuttle by making it a death trap.
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@Damien.D "totally unrepresentative of what spaceflight is" yeah, landing rockets rarely takes place. In fact, only SpaceX does that ;).
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@Bourinos02 then why isn't the title "spacex fans busted"?
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@Bourinos02 like what?
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talking about TF fans? :P
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and Thunderfools for TF fanboys. I had one of them telling me that the Crew Dragon 1 mission won't last as long as planned :P.
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@sangwaraumo "Claimed he'd make tunnels/transportation/space flight way cheaper and so soon without having anything to back it up. The evidence? He hasn't done any of those things." funny thing though is that (almost) everyone copies falcon 9 design.
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@Uachtar you have totally lost it mate.
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@sangwaraumo that it convinces you matters little, what matters is if it convinces those who have a direct economic interest in the issue. "And what part of the design are "they" copying?" In general propulsive landing of the first stage, the fundamental part of the Falcon 9 reusability. Rocketlab's upcoming rocket, the Neutron, has identical legs to Falcon 9 and they plan to land the first stage. Russia's new Amur rocket, identical legs to Falcon 9 and they plan to land the first stage, and identical grid fins as well. China's Hyperbola-2 rocket plans to use same legs and grid fins as Falcon 9 as well. Blue Origin is going to land the first stage of their New Glenn rocket as well. Not exactly the same way, but certainly for the exact same reason as SpaceX does. Even so much that both Bezos and Musk makes the "throw away airplane after one flight" analogy. Others are of course also looking into reusability, but you wanted specific examples.
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@sangwaraumo "You realise reusable rockets have been done before Elon, right? TF showed the footage even." You realize I was talking about a reusable first stage, right? (should I be condescending like you, and ask you if you know what a first stage is?) We are talking about space flight here, not close to ground flight. "Even if it did help make rockets overall cheaper, which is hard to prove but certainly possible, it's nowhere near 10 times or even 2 times cheaper currently." How would you even know how much it costs SpaceX to send up a rocket? "And we're not talking with economic interests here ..." I am as that is the only way for us to get an idea if reusability saves money. Neither of us know enough to say anything about the topic, so all we can do is observe those who do know things and are actually in the business. Are you really going to pretend that you know more than all rocket companies in the world? "the topic isn't "can Elon convince economic interests of X". We all know he's capable of getting people to fund him" That isn't what I was talking about. I was talking about quite a number of other rocket companies aiming to do the same thing as SpaceX. "... we are discussing if he fulfills his wild promises." And you can't show he hasn't fulfilled the one about reducing the cost to space. "He doesn't, at least not in the scale or in the time he predicts." Methinks you interpret "could" as "will" when Elon speaks. Do you know the difference?
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@sangwaraumo "... though it's an idea that has been around." And? Now sure how this has any relevance to anything other than a potential straw man :P. "Elon promised flights around the moon in 2018 ..." Plans change. You can call it a promise if you want, but that is an unrealistic standard to set. If I say "I'll see you at your place at 5", I am not promising you to see you at your place at 5, I am telling you that is my plan, but it can change. Did he use the word promise? "If your defense of his promise is "someday they will be as cheap as he promised" then sure..." Well, to know what is a fair interpretation I would have to know exactly which words he used, and preferably the context. Do you know all that?
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@sangwaraumo I think he misses more predictions than other people, but I think it is quite exaggerated as many times he just expresses possibilities rather than predictions. I really see these misinterpretations all the time. I think it is important to correctly interpret people, especially if you want to be criticize what they say. I mean, if I say "we could land a man on the Moon in 2024", how would you interpret that? Compare that interpretation to me saying "We will se an orbital flight of Starship this year". Surely you can see a significant difference in the level of these predictions? Additionally, it is quite common place to miss predictions in the space business, SLS, JWST, New Glenn, Vulcan, Starliner are the current things that comes to mind right now. Maybe you think all that is scammy as well, fair enough, but I don't think you can take an honest look at this whole situation and see Musk as the worst "scammer" in all of this.
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@sangwaraumo just don't call them promises. There is a reason why people say "I promise" when they promise something, and that is because by default something isn't a promise. You have to utter the word promise for it to be a promise. It is not fair game to misinterpret something and then to laugh at that misinterpretation. That is easily qualified as unfair.
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@sangwaraumo if it is a prediction, sure, but if it is an unrealistic wish/hope/desire you might as well just call it that. All things spoken about the future aren't the same, so there is no point in conflating them. As an example of all of this. Imagine an event that is about to happen, 10% probability it'll be on day 1 (Monday), 20% on day 2, 40% on day 3, 20% on day 4 and 10% on day 5. Do you think I am reasonable if I say all of these things: It could happen on day one. I hope it happens on day 2. I predict it will happen on day 3. It will happen this week. I wish it had already happened.
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@sangwaraumo I'll take that over cynicism and exaggerated pessimism. If the only thing you think is silly is the time line, who cares? That is nothing to devote your life to being hung up on. "Shoot for the moon even if you miss you'll land among the stars" "Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars." In the original form, the phrase "Shoot for the moon" is figurative, meant to inspire people to pursue ambitious goals, reasoning that even if they fail to achieve them, they may still accomplish other great things while trying."
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@sangwaraumo "There's a difference between pessimism and common sense." Sure, but it wasn't common sense for humans to land on the Moon in 69. Was it common sense to make a helicopter for Mars? (Look up TF's critical video about that) "... like it's also okay for me to criticize them and have a laugh." Yeah, and it's OK for me to laugh at your interpretations of what Elon says. "No one's dedicating their lives to being hung up on anything here, just having a chat to pass time." I dunno, I have seen some devoted Elon haters out there :P. One guy I chatted with in a TF video's comment section literally said he don't believe the Crew-1 mission will last until May as planned... :P. Now let's talk about other space companies. What do you think about this news from Wed 9 Mar 2016: "Private space travel company Blue Origin expects to launch its first people in 2017, company founder Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday during a tour of the venture’s research and development site outside Seattle." They still haven't done it, but my guess is that they'll actually do it this year. Do you think that one is more or fewer years delayed compared to New Glenn? :P
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@sangwaraumo don't conflate hope and wishful thinking though, quite different concepts. I seriously doubt there will be 1 million people on Mars by 2050, but I hope it'll happen because that would be cool. This is not wishful thinking, wishful thinking would be believing it would actually happen by that year. I seriously doubt Elon thinks it'll happen as he knows he sets unrealistic timelines to foster motivation. Do you think he believes it'll happen? Same with Dear Moon, you can see he has his doubts about the 2023 year, but he can't really say he doesn't believe in it as he wants people to work hard towards the goal of getting there, so it won't be delayed more than necessary. So, you don't want to laugh at Blue Origins unrealistic timelines? That kind of makes you look like just another irrational Elon hater tbh. I mean, come on... I would have thought that Jeff Bezos would be quite a juicy target for your ridicule. I mean, even though his company is older than SpaceX and he is richer than Musk, they haven't even send any person to space yet.
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@sangwaraumo "I only conflate hope with wishful thinking when they overlap. Which is when people are hoping for what are obvious improbable things." Doesn't make it any better, it is even more important to not conflate things at that point as it won't be as easy to spot your error. "If Bezos is going around doing that, then I'll also have my laugh when I see it. It just doesn't get as much attention." Kind of makes you wonder though, right? Why aren't people talking about this? Why doesn't TF make a video about this? Blue Origin Busted! Do you think there might be any bias at play here?
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@sangwaraumo But we have established that what people think Elon says is exaggerated and what Bezos says is the opposite? Of course he gets more attention, but he gets way more attention on these kind of things than appropriate, that is what I am talking about. Do you think that could come down to bias? I go with the one that google gives me: "Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs based on what might be pleasing to imagine, rather than on evidence, rationality, or reality." What definition do you use?
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@sangwaraumo not sure what you mean with "... if they're based on belief motivated by what is pleasing to imagine." I disagree on your example "I hope I'll be famous like Justin Bieber one day." It's hope, it's wishful thinking." as I understand it, it would only be wishful thinking if you believed you'd actually be famous like Justin Bieber. I guess you could say that all wishful thinking is hopes, but not all hopes are wishful thinking. "And why are you insisting on the Bezos thing, seems you're the only one caring about this Bezos Vs Elon stuff here." Because you don't seem to care about other people or companies missing timelines, but you put in quite an effort to rationalize laughing at Elon when he does. How else am I supposed to interpret this? I gave you seemingly enough information on Bezos/Blue Origin, SLS, JWST, Vulcan and Starliner and you barely reacted. You said "If Bezos is going around doing that, then I'll also have my laugh when I see it.", to test that I keep talking about Bezos/Blue Origin. Additionally, I'm not doing any Bezos Vs Elon stuff, I am comparing Bezos and Musk as that is interesting given that their situations are so similar in this area.
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@sangwaraumo of course, as I said, I think you can say that all wishful thinking is hopes. "And I'm not talking about Bezos because this is a video and topics about Elon. I've already agreed with you he deserves the same treatment if he does the same thing." The thing is that I want to build on this, take the conversation further, and if not for anything else, context always matter. I am curious about why you are fed with so much information about Elon's missed/failed timelines, yet you seem to be unaware of all the other missed/failed timelines. Among other things, I wonder if there is some bias inside you, because you seem to trust negative things said about Elon, but not negative things said about Bezos/Blue Origin. You still say "if he does the same thing", even though I gave you a quote and a date: "Wed 9 Mar 2016: "Private space travel company Blue Origin expects to launch its first people in 2017, company founder Jeff Bezos said on Tuesday during a tour of the venture’s research and development site outside Seattle."". To add to this, what did he say about New Glenn? In the news 12th of September 2016 we could read that "We plan to fly New Glenn for the first time before the end of this decade ...", it has obviously not flown yet and their current plan says fourth quarter of 2022. Out of curiosity, how do you think "end of this decade" should be interpreted? Also, when do you think it is appropriate to drop the "if he does the same thing" bit and just say "he deserves the same treatment"?
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@sangwaraumo I am not interpreting anything here, I gave you a quote (and a date) and if that is not enough for you to do a 5 sec google by yourself, that is on you and nobody else. If you have this severe lack of interest in the topic, you should not laugh when Elon misses a timeline, because you are honestly not informed enough to know if it is something to laugh at or not. "I'm not about to go research it for the purpose of having this conversation with you." It is not about this conversation, it is about you taking control over what you know and how you react to information, don't let people manipulate you by feeding you the information they want you to have. Am I to presume that you looked up nothing about all the other rocket companies that look to do what SpaceX does with the Falcon 9? Or did you at least do a quick google on e.g. "Amur rocket"?
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@sangwaraumo "Elon does make wild claims like TF criticizes. Case in point, 1M in Mars by 2050. You don't even deny it." We already talked about this. Do you remember us talking about the differences between a promise, a plan, a hope etc? My point is that what Elon says is interpreted in an exaggerated fashion, and what other people say is ignored. There is a discrepancy here. "You've gone on this tangent about other people doing the same kind of stuff because you felt like it. I don't." Because it is relevant. You not wanting to know about this only means that you enjoy being ill informed. Some call this being fact resistant, and it is actually not that de-similar to wishful thinking. You don't want to know things because you enjoy knowing as little as you do, because then you can laugh at things. You are literally embracing "ignorance is bliss", which is hilarious given that TF's content entertains you :D.
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@sangwaraumo "Yes, there is a discrepancy in how Elon is treated. I agree to that." Thank you :). "But it doesn't make his claims less wishful thinking." We went over the definition of "wishful thinking". It is not wishful thinking if you just hope it'll happen. I mean, the "claim" you are talking about isn't a claim, it is a plan, and an extremely rough one at that. Space plans pretty much always change, and you rarely if ever plan for something to take more time than it actually will, but that depends on if there is an actual strict deadline or not (like the Mars 2020 missions). There is a reason why the concept "NET", "no earlier than" in commonly used in the space business. What Elon says is basically that it won't happen before 2050, and that he'll work towards it happening asap. It really isn't as big of a deal as you make it out to be. For fun, are you aware of how many years delayed the James Webb Space Telescope is? "Unaware of how badly understated the JWST Budget2 was, NASA management thought there was a 70% probability of launching in June 2014" (source: NASA). Yeah, that is quite many years ago and it is still not up yet. Fingers crossed it'll launch successfully this year.
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@sangwaraumo not sure if we agree on what you think we agree on, but I have a sense that you don't really want to talk about that, so I guess that's that indeed :).
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@nickbrough8335 what are you referring to with "SpaceX is charging the US DoD over $300 million per launch and Nasa c$60 million per launch for exactly the same system"?
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@nickbrough8335 are we thinking of the same thing? Wasn't that added cost because of differences?" But Shotwell insisted the company’s launch prices are not going up. SpaceX is however charging the government for the cost of an extended payload fairing, upgrades to the company’s West Coast launch pad at Vandenberg Air Force in California, and a vertical integration facility required for NRO missions." Also, that is Falcon Heavy launches, right?
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@nickbrough8335 "I think the real issue, is that the cost of Space X launches (and everyone else's probably) for the US Govt is obscured and not transparent in the slightest. Therefore claims from any source about costs is open to abuse." Yet you speak with absolute certainty when you write "SpaceX is charging the US DoD over $300 million per launch and Nasa c$60 million per launch for exactly the same system". Surely you can see the errors of your ways here?
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@nickbrough8335 "If you're trying to argue that a simple comparison is never perfect, I'd agree with you. However ..." Let me stop you right there. I am only here to challenge you on your claim that "SpaceX is charging the US DoD over $300 million per launch and Nasa c$60 million per launch for exactly the same system" Either you take it back, modify it or back it up with evidence. Don't shift the goalpost and start talking about something else.
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@nickbrough8335 What specifically are you talking about? You would have to be more specific for me to know what contract and mission(s) you talk about. While I await your reply, are you aware of this: "Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Hawthorne, California, has been awarded a $297,000,000 firm-fixed-price contract, for launch services to deliver the NROL-87, NROL-85, and AFSPC-44 missions to their intended orbits." (Source: US Dept of Defense.) This was awarded in 2019. That is 100k per launch, not 300k as you said.
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@nickbrough8335 again you are moving the goalpost, refusing to either take back, modify or provide evidence for your claim that: "SpaceX is charging the US DoD over $300 million per launch and Nasa c$60 million per launch for exactly the same system" As I have shown you a contract where they get three launches for $300 million, are you willing to admit that you claim was false? It is healthy to admit when you are wrong from time to time, and surely you are not arrogant enough to think that you are always right? Maybe, just maybe, this is one of those times where you were wrong, and admitting that doesn't make you a bad person, in fact it would do the opposite.
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@nickbrough8335 "I'm not arguing with you about irrelavancies." But do you agree that there is value in being correct in what one says, and being able to back up claims with evidence? "certain people (including you it seems) are so embedded in the Mask narrative" Now this is some grade A bs right there. You say this just because I challenge you on your claim that "SpaceX is charging the US DoD over $300 million per launch and Nasa c$60 million per launch for exactly the same system"? "I have challenged you several times to refuse the arguments and you choose not to." What are you talking about? All you have done is to try to move the goalpost to not have to deal with your claim that "SpaceX is charging the US DoD over $300 million per launch and Nasa c$60 million per launch for exactly the same system". "which is certainly possible a is ti is flawed at a detailed level" It is more than just flawed ot a detailed level. You say 300 million dollars per launch, and I have given you a contract that says 100 million dollars per launch. That is not a little detail, that is you being wrong with a factor of 3. The least you could do is try to talk about another contract, but you don't even do that because you know that even if we add one launch of 300 million dollars to that, we'd only get up to 150 million dollars per launch (300+100+100+100)/4=150 and you'd have to admit that you were quite wrong when you made that claim, by a factor of 2! "engage withe the primary issue (Musk is a bullshitter)" Ask yourself this, how can I expect to have a good conversation with you about that if we can't have a good conversation about something as simple as $300M vs. $100M (or perhaps $150M if you wanna have that discussion?) per launch?
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and this is just in, Rocketlab is going to make their own "falcon9 copy".
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@Damien.D would you say the same thing today?
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