Comments by "Jeremy Barlow" (@jeremybarlow2291) on "My Prediction About Autonomous Cars | Answers With Joe" video.

@thebigpicture2032 I need a car maybe 40 minutes a day if I'm the average commuter. If I'm the average retiree I need a car maybe 1 hour a week. If I'm self-employed and work from home -a growing segment of the population, again, maybe 1 hour a week I need a car. Which means if I'm the average commuter that in a year, I will need a car 200 hours out of 8,670 hours at the high end when you factor in special trips. If I'm not a big commuter, I will need a car maybe 60 to 70 hours per year out of that same 8,760 hours.again factoring in special trips. If you take a big road trip to visit family across the country or to see sights, maybe add 40 hours of trip time for the car usage. Now let's assume that the ride share companies with the reduced fleet costs of self-driving EVs and the reduced fuel costs of solar powered charging, and the reduced costs of no longer needing a driver can charge $0.60 per mile for their service and be profitable. That means if I'm a commuter and I'm not in a car sharing version of the service which car pooling would likely become more common in this scenario reducing costs to maybe $0.20 per mile for a daily commute, that means I can spend $4,800 per year to get back and forth to work at the high end, or $1,600.00 per year at the low end with car pooling. If I'm self-employed or retired, I can spend $1,440 per year at the high end with no car pooling -more likely in this scenario, and $480 at the low end with car pooling. To buy a car at the $35K range which is not super expensive these days, you are going to spend easily $7,500 to $8,000 per year just to pay for the vehicle or more if bought on credit. You are going to spend another $1,200 per year or more maybe less depending on the state and city of residence for insurance. Those are fixed costs for the commuter and the retiree or self-employed work from home person. You are also going to spend $0.04 per mile on electrical costs, or $0.10 per mile for gasoline costs on average so $320 for an EV or $800 for a gas car if you are a commuter. The self-employed work from home person or retiree will spend $96 for electricity for the EV or $240 for the gas car. What economically rational actor will buy a car in that economic reality, especially when wages are falling or stagnant for most people? Now with the number of people living in vans, on your other point, I would say you are onto something, but people will fall into one of two camps. They will either be van dwellers who save on having the expenses of a house, or they will be house dwellers or apartment dwellers who save on the expenses of having a car. Oh, and one more thing, in many cities, the cost of parking a car makes this equation even more of a no brainer for the apartment or house dweller.
17
Joel Spaulding I was using today’s numbers. Today’s numbers are what the insurers will charge automated cars. When those vehicles reduce traffic deaths, injuries, and accidents 100 fold as they seem likely to do. The Google car in over 2 million miles had zero accidents when the autopilot was in charge and one when the human driver was in charge and that is level 3 tech at best. The average human driver has at least one accident every 100,000 miles. Professional drivers earning 1 million accident free miles rate major awards at leading trucking companies because it is so rare. When the self-driver is 100 times safer premiums for self-driving cars may go down by 10% from today’s rates, but the insurance rates for people who want to remain behind the wheel will be increased 100 fold what they are today. In other words if liability insurance for a human driver today was $300 for $300k In coverage, the self-driver will pay $270 per year, but the human driver will pay $30,000 per year for the same coverage because insurers will not want the increased risks. There will be no choice left. That is how the economically rational actor will actually be influenced.
6
With the right trust structure I don't see why this can't be facilitated shortly. As in, the minute level 4 autonomous vehicles are available and legally able to drive themselves.
4
IncognitoTorpedo the 40 minutes per day number is based on the average commute time according to Census data. The hour a week is based on my own usage as a self-employed at home worker. Are there variations, sure, but these aren’t crazy estimates.
3
We live in an oligarchy. There are caps on damages already in place on damn near everything. I'm a lawyer. The law already takes this into account, and guess what, when the new rules are put in place damage caps and corporate shields will take care of that problem. It is not a problem.
2
In ten years it will cost you $20k every six months for liability insurance on one of those cars. As the autonomous cars become more prevalent and their safety record becomes exponentially better than people -it already is at level 3, the insurers will make it prohibitively expensive to operate older non autonomous vehicles.
1
F27 FPV electrical systems are easier to repair than ICE.
1
@Snarkonymous There is a Chinese manufacturer who went back to the swappable battery model and has built a network in China of swappable battery stations. The battery can be changed automatically by a robot in a drive thru facility in 3 minutes. The other one people don't talk about enough is wireless induction charging. Once the /kwH price of batteries makes EVs the norm, it won't be long before utilities are competing for the contract to put metered wireless charging under the major roadways so that re-charging is unnecessary outside of the car. The witricity companies have already made massive advances in rapid wireless charging too.
1
Capital H it’s not only coming, it starts this year. Mercedes is delivering self-driving tractors to major companies this year and Tesla promises to do the same.
1
Greg Collins except under the no fault statutes in most states, you cannot sue them most of the time and in the rare event you could, overcoming the hurdles to impose product liability you have to prove damages that are significant for it to be worthwhile for a plaintiffs attorney to pursue a cause of action. In other words unless the victim is a young surgeon who loses the use of their hands, the damages will typically be small and you would need to demonstrate malice in a negligent design to impose punitive damages. Also software updates are so easy to make and so inexpensive that software makers would have zero economic incentive not to correct a flaw, so the odds of malice being found is next to zero.
1
Mike Harrington the biggest reduction in that will come from the same reduced costs of batteries and reduced costs of solar panels that he mentioned, but also lab grown meats. The two Great disruptions of the 2020s will be autonomous EVs and the end of animal agriculture and mono crop agriculture which will drastically reduce CO2 and methane emissions. The agriculture changes and automation changes coming in the next decade will make what the Internet did in the 1990s and the car did in the 1910s and the computer did in the 1980s look like what the telephone, telegraph, and steam engine did to everything before them.
1
Mir the 15 year time frame is probably accurate. By 2030 Moore’s law predicts chips for the average $1500 computer will be fast enough to match the human brain in terms of intelligence. By 2040 those chips at the $1500 price point will be hundreds of times more capable than a human being and algorithms are already taking advantage of the new processing power and self-learning.
1